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Speaker 1: This is the Saturday edition of Fear and Greed business News.

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Speaker 1: You can use are Michael Thompson and good morning Sean.

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Speaker 2: Aylmer Morning, Michael, Good morning now Sean.

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Speaker 1: Normally, right on a normal weekend, our Saturday shows all

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Speaker 1: about the two of us, each nominating what we think

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Speaker 1: is the biggest business story of the week, the most

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Speaker 1: remarkable business story of the week, a mystery category of

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Speaker 1: the week, and our favorite story of the week. However, however,

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Speaker 1: long weekend special edition, this is for the entire quarter year.

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Speaker 2: Michael, twenty twenty six year.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's pretty much the same thing, right,

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Speaker 1: but I mean Saturday much cooler, and I wish we'd

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Speaker 1: discussed that beforehand, because now yours sounds cool and mine

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Speaker 1: sounds a little bit lame. Anyway, we will need a

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Speaker 1: judge to pick a winner, because this is still a

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Speaker 1: competition even though it's a special edition, and that judge

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Speaker 1: is our Fear and Greed colleague Adam Lang, who disgraced

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Speaker 1: himself for the terrible judgment last week.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back, Adam, Thank you Michael, and good morning Sean.

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Speaker 1: Morning at Danski now Adam for this special edition where

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Speaker 1: we are looking back at the entire quarter or the year.

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Speaker 1: What are you looking for today? And can we expect

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Speaker 1: an improvement?

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Speaker 3: Well in reverse order? No, but what I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: now is again.

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Speaker 2: Last week, I'll be a dud this week.

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Speaker 3: Lofty aspirations. Economic impact, that's the number one feature really

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Speaker 3: Obviously it's new, so it's got to be topical and timely.

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Speaker 3: We do love playing to a bit of our subjective

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Speaker 3: bias here. A bit of reform is always popular. And

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Speaker 3: Michael's strong suit melodrama, Sean, you always do quite well

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Speaker 3: on that. But it's hard to beat a master.

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Speaker 2: No, madam, I mean the first grade. Michael's first grade.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it didn't help me last week. Last week I

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Speaker 1: lost the unlosable episode I had. It was entirely stacked

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Speaker 1: in my face.

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Speaker 2: Now you've done that before, I've done, Michael, I do.

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Speaker 1: It's something that I'm always capable of doing. It keeps

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Speaker 1: it interesting, right, Let's get going. Bigger story of the

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Speaker 1: year so far, of the quarter, Sean taken away.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's one that we agree that the war

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East is the biggest story. So we've

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Speaker 2: take both taken parts of it to talk to Adam about.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's the resetting of alliances globally, which will

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Speaker 2: we will hold on to for decades and decades. Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: he's been aggressive, shall we say, in his approached to diplomacy.

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Speaker 2: He suggested the US would take Greenland. He removed the

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Speaker 2: leader of Venezuela and Venezuela and did a deal to

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Speaker 2: access the country's oil. He suggested he might take Cuba,

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Speaker 2: and of course the US in Israelan's attacked Ran, triggering

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Speaker 2: a major conflict in the Middle East. He has been

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Speaker 2: critical of friend and foe, and sometimes the closer you

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Speaker 2: were to Donald Trump, I think Canada, the more you

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Speaker 2: got burnt. What's done is reorder the world like Europe

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Speaker 2: and NATO. Even the last few days he's been critical

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Speaker 2: of NATO. They can no longer be assured assured of

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Speaker 2: the US's support. China sat back, watch things evolved. It

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Speaker 2: almost looks like the sensible super Bower. Quite incredible, the

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Speaker 2: Russi of Ukraine war drags on. I suppose Canada's Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Mark Karney has become the facto leader of the

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Speaker 2: Middle Powers, places like Canada, India, Career, Australia, and he

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Speaker 2: has really pushed the idea that we need to unite

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Speaker 2: the middle orders. It's a new world order. The middle

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Speaker 2: powers need to unite. That's benefited us already, the Eustralia

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Speaker 2: Free Trade Deal for example. Point about the last three months,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, in his very own way, has ensured that

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Speaker 2: the world will never be the same. Biggest story of

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Speaker 2: the quarter.

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Speaker 1: It feels bad because I'm actually taking one of the

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Speaker 1: criteria as my topic here, and that is the economic

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Speaker 1: impact of the war, right, and that is actually the biggest,

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Speaker 1: the biggest kind of element of it that I think.

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Speaker 1: And look, let me set myself a target of thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds or less because.

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Speaker 2: About that thirty seconds, right, I just I just want

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Speaker 2: to point out that you just you know you're going

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Speaker 2: to lose this and say you've actually decided to suck

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Speaker 2: up to the judge by saying you're really important economic impact.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 1: Oh I'm sorry. Did that come across the sector? That's

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Speaker 1: the last thing I want to do, right, because Adam

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Speaker 1: can make his own decision here. He knows what's right,

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Speaker 1: he knows he knows what he needs to do. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I don't need to go into too much detail on

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Speaker 1: this because this is something that everyone has been living.

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Speaker 1: We know this the impact at economic impact of the war,

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Speaker 1: let oil prices flowing through to petrol prices, petrol supply

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Speaker 1: as well, This fear that we're going to run out

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Speaker 1: an unprecedented crisis, right, The pressure that that has put

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Speaker 1: on households, The pressure that has put on businesses, people

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Speaker 1: just needing to know that they're going to be able

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Speaker 1: to do their jobs. Have the fuel, particularly kind of

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Speaker 1: in rural and regional Australia. But then the impact that

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Speaker 1: that has on the bottom line when all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: you're going instead of paying a dollar seventy for diesel,

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Speaker 1: you're paying three dollars ten or three dollars twenty or

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Speaker 1: something if you can even get it, if you were

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Speaker 1: in one of those businesses that relies on diesel, just

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Speaker 1: extraordinary that impact. Then the impact on inflation, what that

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Speaker 1: means for interest rates and the Reserve Bank. Also, I'm

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Speaker 1: just grouping a whole lot of stuff in here, just

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Speaker 1: as you did, Sean. But the impact on financial markets

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Speaker 1: then as well. If you're an investor, if you've been

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Speaker 1: an investor this quarter, good lie up to you trying

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Speaker 1: to kind of figure out what's going on. It's been

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Speaker 1: so volatile, these massive swings that we've seen where the ASX,

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Speaker 1: for instance, if we just keep it local, can go

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Speaker 1: up or down nearly two percent in a single day

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Speaker 1: on Donald Trump's words. And what we are seeing is

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Speaker 1: that investors are no longer actually sure whether they can

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Speaker 1: rely well, I don't know whether they've ever known whether

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Speaker 1: they can rely on what he says, but his words

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Speaker 1: are no longer actually having the impact that they previously

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Speaker 1: did in terms of moving the markets one way or

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Speaker 1: the other. And so suddenly there's another element of volatility

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Speaker 1: in that. There we go adam economic impact of the war,

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Speaker 1: not quite the thirty seconds I said, but still pretty

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Speaker 1: brick very good.

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Speaker 3: So the quarter the year to Easter twenty twenty six

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Speaker 3: and to those of faith, of course, happy Eastern. To

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Speaker 3: everyone else, have a grade four days off. One comes

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Speaker 3: before the other. Right, So the source of these issues,

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Speaker 3: the impact of war on petrol price does and supply

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Speaker 3: impact on investors, energy security, It all comes back to

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump's impact. So I think that the source of

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Speaker 3: this story, the biggest story is this quarter, is actually

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump's impact on the world. And I wonder whether

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Speaker 3: he actually intended it or not to push the world

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Speaker 3: towards green energy. But in the end, I think that's

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Speaker 3: what he's doing.

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Speaker 2: Shawn wins an unintended nil Happy Easter, most remarkable story.

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Speaker 2: Shall we move on.

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Speaker 1: Still recovery this it is happening again, like the evidence

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Speaker 1: of bias is mounting. I'm just going to put that

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Speaker 1: in the first story, my little bias diary here that

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Speaker 1: I'm tracking because, as we say on this podcast, the

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Speaker 1: trend is your friend, and the trend adam that is

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Speaker 1: suggesting bias over a long period of time most Michael.

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Speaker 2: Then, indirectly, I got a message from Kim and Kim

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Speaker 2: and Gavin who are fans of the podcast, and Kim, Gavin,

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Speaker 2: Margs and me and Margs and things like that. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: Kim has instituted the trend is your friend in her business.

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Speaker 2: That's not just me, Michael. Yes, I know the trends

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Speaker 2: is your friend.

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Speaker 1: Do you think actually that we should get a range

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Speaker 1: of merch with the trend is your Friend on it?

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Speaker 1: I reckon, that's a t shirt that people would wear

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Speaker 1: fear and breed the trend is your friend, and will

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Speaker 1: send the first one to Kim.

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Speaker 2: Right, Kim, you're on. You know who you are. Maybe

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Speaker 2: you don't know who you are. But if you do

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Speaker 2: and look, and I wouldn't actually hang out by the

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Speaker 2: letterbox just yet.

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Speaker 1: Though, No, no, no, obviously that's a very good commitment.

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Speaker 2: Commitment.

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Speaker 1: I guess it's a non call promise, that one, which

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Speaker 1: is of course a term that you would hear in politics.

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Speaker 1: Which is my most remarkable story. Such a smooth and

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Speaker 1: glorious segue. We need to talk very briefly because I've

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Speaker 1: once again put myself on a forty five second timer

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Speaker 1: here the fall of the coalition and the rise and

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Speaker 1: rise of one nation in just the last quarter. When

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Speaker 1: you think about what has happened in the last quarter

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Speaker 1: so far this year, Liberal leader Susan Lee gone, Angus

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Speaker 1: Taylor v Andrew Hasty, the big showdown between the two

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Speaker 1: of them that wasn't a showdown in the end, and

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Speaker 1: Angus Taylor the new Liberal leader. Then you've got David

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Speaker 1: Little Proud the Nationals leader gone, Matt Canavan in now

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Speaker 1: and so suddenly that party is looking a heck of

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Speaker 1: a lot more conservative than it was, even though it

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Speaker 1: was pretty down conservative already. Because Matt Canavan is very,

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Speaker 1: very very staunched in some of his conservative views. Yes,

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Speaker 1: some of his conservative views, some other not so conservative views,

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Speaker 1: but which it leads us to the big problem for

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Speaker 1: the Nationals and for the Liberals, for the coalition overall,

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Speaker 1: and that is One Nation. And this quarter we have

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Speaker 1: seen the surge in support for One Nation in the polls,

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Speaker 1: outpolling the Liberals. So all of a sudden, you've got

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Speaker 1: a minor party that is out polling one of the majors,

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Speaker 1: which has just reached absolute havoc with kind of predictions

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Speaker 1: for what would happen at elections, because all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to kind of produce a two party preferred

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Speaker 1: result when you've actually got one of the major parties

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Speaker 1: polling less than a minor party, where the preferences go

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Speaker 1: absolute chaos. We saw it taking place in the South

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Speaker 1: Australian election where all of a sudden, this actually did

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Speaker 1: translate into votes. It wasn't just people saying it to

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Speaker 1: a pulser, It actually did translate into votes. And all

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Speaker 1: you have got a very very worried coalition, You've got

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Speaker 1: a worried National Party, you've got a worried Liberal Party

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Speaker 1: going how do we reclaim those voters that we lost

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Speaker 1: at the last election that we have lost more so

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Speaker 1: so far this quarter, re markable amount of change for

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Speaker 1: the conservative side, and you would expect the trigger for

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Speaker 1: a real reset in values and what that side of

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Speaker 1: politics stands for and how they appeal to voters of

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Speaker 1: the future.

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Speaker 2: Okay for longest forty five seconds?

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Speaker 1: Oh up yours. I know that this is easter and

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Speaker 1: a time when we should be respectful towards each other.

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Speaker 2: But no, my story is something that's really happened this

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Speaker 2: quarter as opposed to last year, and sort of flowing

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Speaker 2: onto this quarter the turn of the housing market. We

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Speaker 2: begin the year looking really strong, high preliminary clearance rates.

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Speaker 2: Within weeks some markets have turned. Sydney and Melbourne have

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Speaker 2: gone backwards this year quite incredible, Perth on a tear,

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Speaker 2: followed by Brisbane, Adelaide, Darman. They're doing well. And also

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Speaker 2: we talk a lot about interest rates and housing, but

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Speaker 2: this has really been a supply story. The weak markets.

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Speaker 2: The weaker markets are where supply came back onto the

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Speaker 2: onto the market. In that week last week, not the

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Speaker 2: one we've just had, the one before. I think there

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Speaker 2: was like four thousand homes up for auction, quite incredible

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Speaker 2: and it has really changed the whole outlook of the

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Speaker 2: housing market, particularly particularly in Victoria and Melbourne and New

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Speaker 2: South Wales in Sydney, that has been remarkable to turn

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Speaker 2: the housing market.

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Speaker 3: Oh god, this is so hard.

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Speaker 1: It shouldn't be. Just just just feel the bias flow

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Speaker 1: through you and give the point to Sean, Adam, I'm

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Speaker 1: not feeling.

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Speaker 2: I will No, that's even funnier. That is even funnier.

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Speaker 3: I changed my score. I was going to give you him,

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Speaker 3: but yes, my childlike response couldn't resist. I'll change it.

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Speaker 1: You got torn to just a little bit, and as

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Speaker 1: a result, you have thrown out everything that you have

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Speaker 1: worn to do as an impartial judge. You took an oath, Adam,

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Speaker 1: and you have just disregarded that.

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Speaker 2: That is.

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Speaker 3: Responses are as long as your stories.

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Speaker 1: Okay, too nil, Quick break back in a moment with

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Speaker 1: more all right, time for our favorite story of the quarter.

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Speaker 1: It is too nil. We are seeing bias happen in

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Speaker 1: real time, Ladies and gentlemen. This is extraordinary. The people

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Speaker 1: will not stand for this, Sean. Our mystery category this

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Speaker 1: week is the story that's stuck with us from the quarter.

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Speaker 1: If there's one that really kind of stood out, it's

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Speaker 1: been very memorable. What was it for you?

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Speaker 2: The rise of AI and the decline of the Big

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Speaker 2: seven AI is going to get you, It really is.

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Speaker 2: The adoption rates of AI this year has been amazing.

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Speaker 2: Do you know who is using AI now? When he

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Speaker 2: wants to come on the show and try and do

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Speaker 2: a story for us, our own judge A Dampski, he

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Speaker 2: admitted he uses AI.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, every day.

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Speaker 2: More than fifty percent. Now the estimate is more than

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Speaker 2: fifty percent of people who search have a no click policy,

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Speaker 2: as in they read the AI response and go no further.

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Speaker 1: Hm.

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Speaker 2: Quite phenomenal. Whilst all this has been going on, we've

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Speaker 2: had the sas apocalypse going on now, the Magnificent seven

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Speaker 2: tech stocks they have tumbled so the two big ones.

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Speaker 2: Microsoft met has spent a lot on data centers spent

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Speaker 2: a lot on AI, down about thirty five percent from

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Speaker 2: their highs of last year. You've had companies like at

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Speaker 2: Lassian the fear of it Lassian is what it does

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Speaker 2: will be replaced by AI. Its share prices are fifty

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Speaker 2: five percent this year alone. The whole reshaping of the

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Speaker 2: future with the rays of AI and then in the

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Speaker 2: investing markets that has meant the decline of the Big

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Speaker 2: seven to some extent that that's not terminal, that decline,

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Speaker 2: of course, that will shift. But the rise of AI

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Speaker 2: the last three months has really stuck with me. I

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Speaker 2: think that's quite phenomenal, Michael.

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Speaker 1: In the last quarter, the tide has turned on social

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Speaker 1: media right, two court cases in one week, so I

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Speaker 1: could even narrow it down even further if I needed to.

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Speaker 1: But two court cases in one week, both found against

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Speaker 1: these the tech giants to social media companies, including in

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Speaker 1: one ad that we discussed at length. They have been

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Speaker 1: designed to be addictive. That was a finding from the court,

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Speaker 1: and that it causes damage. Meanwhile, locally, Adam, we've got

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Speaker 1: the federal government's crackdown continuing. There are five million under

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Speaker 1: sixteen autun's now gone. The pace though of getting rid

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Speaker 1: of them has slowed right down, and the federal government

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Speaker 1: is not happy, and so the crackdown the screws are

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Speaker 1: getting a little bit tighter. There growing international support for

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Speaker 1: what Australia has done. We've seen that this quarter. That

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Speaker 1: is the tide turning against the social media companies. This

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Speaker 1: is a turning point for social media. It started last

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Speaker 1: year in Australia. It just bloomed and blossomed this quarter

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Speaker 1: in courtrooms in the United States. This has been a

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Speaker 1: seminal quarter for social media and the shift against it.

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Speaker 3: Lovely word flourish, Michael, you win. I actually think the

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Speaker 3: it's massive that Michael wins.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so like social media versus AI and social media wins.

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Speaker 4: Interesting, Interesting, Adam, unexpected In another I think you're about

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Speaker 4: to see what is known as the rare dummy spit

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Speaker 4: where we both end up.

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Speaker 1: Storming out, both equally dissatisfied with the judgments. Sorry, go on, Adam,

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Speaker 1: this is a good look.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, they're both massive stories. But you know, there's a

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Speaker 3: court case that's such significance, and I know I just

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Speaker 3: closed the quarter, so there's the recency effect. But I

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Speaker 3: think that is massive and just how validating it's been

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Speaker 3: for the Albanezi government here, this policy change here and

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Speaker 3: around the world. So I think that's had a very

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Speaker 3: big impact the rise of AI and the decline of

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Speaker 3: the Big Seven. I love that, Sean. That's actually really

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Speaker 3: well made. Point saspocalypse at Lassians shere price massive, but

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Speaker 3: just on this one, and it's very subjective bias. I'm

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Speaker 3: giving it social media.

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Speaker 2: Because you are a social media flut, no doubt about it.

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Speaker 2: You guys should try and it follow Adam's social media.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like nothing happened.

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Speaker 2: I mean I don't, but I reckon there'd be a

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Speaker 2: lot of Sydney Swans.

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Speaker 1: There'd be a lot of outdoor advertising, live streaming of Excel. Guys.

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Speaker 1: Check this new formula I've made process.

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Speaker 3: It has a curious appeal. Let's put it that way.

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Speaker 2: Small favorite favorite story, shall you get first? Michael of

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Speaker 2: the quarter? Yes, the quarter.

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Speaker 1: This is when I was thinking about stories for this.

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Speaker 1: I was just like, you know, there's only one because

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Speaker 1: I'm going to remember who am I here for? Who

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Speaker 1: am I representing? I'm representing the people.

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Speaker 2: This is boring.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry the people get boring to you, Sean. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: I'm not worthy your Ivory tower hoo worthy. The A

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Speaker 1: triple C versus the supermarkets, right, and then Colds v.

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Speaker 2: Will This was that last year.

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Speaker 1: No, it was this year. It was in court this year.

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Speaker 1: It was in court this year. Right, and it's been

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Speaker 1: colsv Woollies as well, just like the supermarket battle has

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Speaker 1: been extremes.

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Speaker 2: Hold on, do we have a decision this year?

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Speaker 1: Keep that in mind, Sean, about whether or not. A

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Speaker 1: decision is required for a story to be able to

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Speaker 1: be entered, because you may find yourself eating your words

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Speaker 1: in a moment. The Ahable c versus the supermarkets taking

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Speaker 1: on coals in the Federal court. It took place this quarter.

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Speaker 1: The down down pricing practices, you know that, increasing a price,

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Speaker 1: leaving it there for a week, then reducing it still

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Speaker 1: above the original price, and they call it a sale

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Speaker 1: even though the customer is paying more. Yes, the decision

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Speaker 1: is yet to be returned in the federal court, but

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Speaker 1: it is incredible. Got woolies facing the same fight later

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Speaker 1: in the years. I guarantee you I'll be doing that

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Speaker 1: in the next quarter review. And it comes just as

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Speaker 1: households are under this intense, intense cost of living pressure.

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Speaker 1: You've got a resurgent WOOLLI is fighting back against colds,

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Speaker 1: both doing so much to improve their image publicly. After

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Speaker 1: a shocking couple of years, everyone's starting to trust the

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Speaker 1: supermarkets again. Then this whole thing playing out in the

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Speaker 1: Federal court this quarter threatens to bring them undone. When

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Speaker 1: is a special not a special? When are we not

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Speaker 1: getting good value from the supermarkets? When are we being

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Speaker 1: deceived by these companies that we hold. Dear, that's the

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Speaker 1: big question from this quarter. That's my favorite story. Now, Sean,

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Speaker 1: yours as if you would know what mine is? Michael, Oh, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: I don't. I absolutely don't. All I'm saying is that

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Speaker 1: I sincerely hope there is something concrete and something that

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Speaker 1: has actually happened this quarter that you can pin your

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Speaker 1: story to go for.

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Speaker 2: You have the government concretely floating the idea of cattle

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Speaker 2: gains tax.

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Speaker 3: A concretely floating, brilliant.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Oh, the greatest new term I've ever heard on

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Speaker 1: this podcast.

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Speaker 2: We all know what happens when governments think they're going

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Speaker 2: to make major changes, they leak it. They want to

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Speaker 2: see what the population think. And what they've done this

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Speaker 2: quarter is talking about capital gains tax reform on the

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Speaker 2: twelve May budget. In fact, they prepared the way so

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Speaker 2: much that if they don't do it on twelve May

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Speaker 2: then people are going to be mightily upset. We have

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Speaker 2: the support from the Greens. They probably want to go

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Speaker 2: further than what the government's talking about, even some of

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Speaker 2: the Liberals. Andrew Hasty, he thinks it's not a bad

371
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Speaker 2: idea either, although he's that new boss Angus Taylor, ain't

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Speaker 2: so sure government preparing the way for change. Jim Chalmers,

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Speaker 2: there's even the war, you know, won't alter that. To me,

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Speaker 2: we actually might get some real reform. How many times

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Speaker 2: can I say the word reform in one it's because

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Speaker 2: I do believe. At the beginning of it, Adam said reform. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Over to you, Adam.

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Speaker 1: Oh you can see, I'm just like melting a little

379
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Speaker 1: bit each time you say it.

380
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Speaker 2: He is.

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Speaker 3: A little flushed. I know this is a shock. Sean

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Speaker 3: wins even the hope of reform real fall.

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Speaker 1: But nothing has happened yet.

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Speaker 3: But similarly, Michael, neither has anything happened in the court case.

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Speaker 1: Yes, but at least it actually happened in court, like

386
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Speaker 1: you could go along and watch it, whereas the other

387
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Speaker 1: is just like, oh, yeah, maybe this is gonna happen.

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Speaker 1: You know what, I would expect nothing less from you,

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Speaker 1: Adam in this judgment, the most biased judge in the

390
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Speaker 1: history of judgement, and give us some more reason.

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Speaker 2: You are our Donald Trump, Michael, our own very own

392
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Speaker 2: Donald Trump.

393
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Speaker 1: Is it because of the hyperbole? Any other comments on

394
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Speaker 1: that judgment?

395
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Speaker 3: There?

396
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Speaker 1: Adam a bit more about how much I love tax

397
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Speaker 1: reform well.

398
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Speaker 3: I do. It's enough to say that, isn't It's like

399
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Speaker 3: at the altar, I love you? So okay three one, yeah,

400
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 3: three to one, noble battle, well done, chance So yep,

401
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 3: Sean wins with three, Michael with one. And the story count.

402
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 3: Did you know that at the three story mark you

403
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 3: were both even? So it all came down to the

404
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 3: last story Sean ninety three points, Michael ninety one.

405
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Speaker 2: And you got wopped on the last story.

406
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Speaker 1: So you mean there was at least two points. There

407
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Speaker 1: was two points in that last story between us. Yes,

408
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: unb believable. That is extraordinaroy. Well, oh you know what, Adam,

409
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: Joey Easter, thank you for ruining Easter. I trust do

410
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: you look pretty your fault. You look pretty pleased with yourself.

411
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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Adam.

412
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Speaker 3: I meant to keep that down. Thank you, Michael, Thank.

413
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Speaker 2: You, Sean, Thank you, Michael, Thank you Adam.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you are following the podcast and head along

415
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: to Fearandgreed dot com dot au to sign up for

416
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: our free daily newsletter. Oh, Michael Thompson, that was Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great weekend.