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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, the long term boss of

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Speaker 1: A and Z retires and the country's fourth largest bank

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Speaker 1: appoints a European banker with no experience in Australia. The

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Speaker 1: rate of casual employment picks up as the work from

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Speaker 1: home phenomenon continues, and the global advertising industry set to

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Speaker 1: push beyond one trillion US dollars. Plus more on the

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Speaker 1: terror attack at a Melbourne synagogue and good and bad

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Speaker 1: news in the latest news poll for Anthony Alberanezi. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the tenth of

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Speaker 1: December twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: You can actually hear me checking the dates, can't you

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Speaker 1: as well?

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Speaker 2: You can?

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Speaker 1: Oh God, one day, one day, I'm just going to

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Speaker 1: completely come out with the wrong date and you are

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Speaker 1: going to hold me to account. Shown the main story

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Speaker 1: this morning, the long term boss of A and Z,

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Speaker 1: Shane Elliott, will retire and be replaced by a Portuguese

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Speaker 1: banker who the bank's board says is an expert in

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Speaker 1: business risk and technology transformations.

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Speaker 2: All very good, but doesn't know much about Australia. I wonder.

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Speaker 2: Shane Elliott has been chief executive officer for nine years.

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Speaker 2: He is the longest serving boss of a major bank

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Speaker 2: in Australia. The fact that yesterday he retired means that

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Speaker 2: three of the four banks have gotten new CEOs this year.

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Speaker 2: Not Commonwealth Banks Matt common He's still there and now

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Speaker 2: the veteran of the group. Shan Elliott has been considered

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Speaker 2: a pretty good CEO, highlighted by his determination to acquire

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Speaker 2: sun Corpse banking business. That's the determination that took him

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Speaker 2: through an HBLEC process and appealing the rejection of that deal.

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Speaker 2: More recently, his reputation has probably been tarnished, just touched

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Speaker 2: by an investigation by the Securities Watchdog into where the

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Speaker 2: traders at the bank manipulated the pricing of a fourteen

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Speaker 2: billion dollar government bond sale earlier this year. Auster Eliot

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Speaker 2: will remain until the middle of next year before handing

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Speaker 2: handing over to a gentleman called Nuno Martos in Unomatos

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Speaker 2: Martos pretty much an unknown in the Australian banking community.

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Speaker 2: His most recent role as CEO of HSBC in Europe,

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Speaker 2: has involved eighty seven thousand employees, forty million customers and

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Speaker 2: thirty five markets. He also looked after Mexico as well.

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Speaker 2: He's walked worked in Portugal, Peru, Brazil, Mexico and Hong Kong.

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Speaker 2: Apparently he's an expert in business transitions. AINS has two

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Speaker 2: very big ones underway, splitting its technology platform into two.

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Speaker 2: It wants basically an updated version for its retail customers

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Speaker 2: and another updated version for big business institutional customers. And

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Speaker 2: the second thing is integrating that sun Court business.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I've got two questions for you about it. Right

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Speaker 1: is right? Just how different is Australian banking to the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world. And then the secondary part of that,

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Speaker 1: or maybe the most important part is do global executives

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Speaker 1: do well? Then coming to Australian financial services institutions.

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Speaker 2: Okay, the first part, the Australian economy is very bank heavy.

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Speaker 2: I mean four of the top seven companies in the

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Speaker 2: economy are banks, so they almost play a bigger role

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Speaker 2: in our society than most other economies. So we you know,

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Speaker 2: whenever the boss of Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, National Australian Bank

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Speaker 2: or ain Z speaks, it's the ways on the news

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Speaker 2: people listen they have the year of politicians, so I

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Speaker 2: think that is different. Second, bank stocks in Australia, especially

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Speaker 2: the Commonwealth Bank, but all of them are priced much higher.

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Speaker 2: They've got a lot of shitreholders, so they have a

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Speaker 2: greater responsibility almost. The third part of it, which I

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Speaker 2: think is really kind of interesting, is that people use

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Speaker 2: banks differently in Australia. So an example is Australians have

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Speaker 2: a far greater number of variable rate mortgages compared to

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world, so the UK US mostly

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Speaker 2: they're fixed rate mortgages. Where variable rate mortgages. That makes

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Speaker 2: the world a very different place in terms of monetary

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Speaker 2: policy of how banks manage risk that type of stuff,

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Speaker 2: So I think it is different. Do global execs do

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Speaker 2: well in Australia, To be perfectly honest, I don't think

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Speaker 2: they've in The track history is not particularly good if

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Speaker 2: just leave the minders out, because they're global companies. Real

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Speaker 2: amp's had a couple of high profile international bosses over

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Speaker 2: the years, not a good track record at all. A

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Speaker 2: and Z actually had a guy called John McFarlane who

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Speaker 2: then went on to be chairman of Westpac. John was

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Speaker 2: CEO and considered a very successful CEO a Scotsman. So

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Speaker 2: perhaps that's the exception to the rule. Most top companies

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Speaker 2: in Australia, though run by Australians, in fact top fifty company.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to get it wrong. I'm sure outside mining.

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Speaker 2: I don't think there's an international CEO who runs a

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Speaker 2: top fifty company outside mining.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow, okay, so this is this has the potential

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Speaker 1: to be We'll generate a lot of headlines for one thing.

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Speaker 1: Be interesting to see what he does.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean will he bring his own people in? Certainly,

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Speaker 2: investors soldn A and Z yesterday was off more than

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Speaker 2: three percent, so the initial reaction isn't particularly positive, but

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Speaker 2: we'll wait and see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah we will indeed, all right, sure, moving on from

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Speaker 1: banking now, they're around two zero point five million casual

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Speaker 1: workers in Australia, with a vast majority not wanting to

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Speaker 1: go permanent while working from home is slightly that's common

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Speaker 1: now than it was a year ago, but.

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Speaker 2: Still more common than pre pandemic. There was a bunch

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Speaker 2: of statistics from the Bureau of Stats yesterday. Basically it

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Speaker 2: said twenty two point three percent of works are now

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Speaker 2: casual and the vast majority of those, about three quarters

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Speaker 2: of them are happy to keep it that way. That

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Speaker 2: of course has implications around industrial relations reforms that the

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Speaker 2: government has introduced and the shift from casualization to part

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Speaker 2: time work. It just seems that most people actually want

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Speaker 2: to remain casuals. The reason they like it flexibillion in

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Speaker 2: ours was number one reason. The number two reason was

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Speaker 2: higher hourly pay rates. Of course, when you casually get

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Speaker 2: a hourly pay rate because you don't get holiday pay

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Speaker 2: and stuff like that. Casual employment was certainly hit by

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Speaker 2: the pandemic, went from about twenty five percent to twenty

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Speaker 2: one percent in twenty twenty. It jumped, but now it's

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Speaker 2: come back down, So in actual fact, we're not a

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Speaker 2: particularly casual workforce at the moment. In terms of work

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Speaker 2: from home, thirty six percent of Australians that usually work

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Speaker 2: from home. That's about four percentage points higher than the

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Speaker 2: pre pandemics, so we've stuck with it to some extent. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: flexible hours is the main reason. They're followed by people

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Speaker 2: operating a business from home. And the final piece of

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Speaker 2: info from the bureaus that's yesterday, which I thought was

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Speaker 2: quite interesting, is trade union membership. It's actually on the rise.

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Speaker 2: Thirteen point one percent of all employees are now a

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Speaker 2: member of a trade union. It was only twelve point

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Speaker 2: five percent two years ago. One j ten years ago

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Speaker 2: it was more than sixteen percent.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I'm surprised by one of those stats in there,

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Speaker 1: that worked from home statistic. Thirty six percent of Australians

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Speaker 1: usually work from home and that's just four percentage points

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Speaker 1: higher than pre pandemic number one. I'm surprised that it

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Speaker 1: was so high pre pandemic. True, and I'm quite surprised

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Speaker 1: that it is not much much much higher now, even

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Speaker 1: though I know that it has been a shift towards

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Speaker 1: back towards the office.

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Speaker 2: So I think the term there usually work from home

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Speaker 2: is important as opposed to sometimes works from home. If

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Speaker 2: you had sometimes works from home, that number of a

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Speaker 2: bit a lot higher.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, It all comes down to the language,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: It's all about definitions, Michael.

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Speaker 1: You know, this feels like it feels like we are

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Speaker 1: like analyzing the Reserve Bank statement or something, you know,

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Speaker 1: where they just they pour over it looking for individual words,

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Speaker 1: trying to glean more information, which I mean, which will

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Speaker 1: be happening later today, of course, a bit more on

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Speaker 1: that later on. Sean Asio says there is no ongoing

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Speaker 1: threat following a Melbourne synagogue fire bombing late last week,

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Speaker 1: an incident which was yesterday designated a terrorist attack.

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Speaker 2: Director General Mike Burgess, that's Director General of ASIAS, said

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Speaker 2: the agency had been conducting its own inquiries. No intelligence

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Speaker 2: to suggest that there is a threat of ongoing terror.

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Speaker 2: Mind you, the national terrorism threat remains at probable. Mister

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Speaker 2: Burge has said the security environment is volatile and unpredictable,

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Speaker 2: and anti authority beliefs continue to grow while ingrielliances are spreading.

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Speaker 2: He added that inflamed language can lead to violence and

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Speaker 2: so people need to watch their words. A special AFP

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Speaker 2: operation that's Australian Federal Police operation into anti Semitism has

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Speaker 2: been launched following the attack in Melbourne last week.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, We've got plenty still to cover. We

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Speaker 1: are talking good and bad news for the Prime Minister.

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Speaker 1: We've got plenty of markets news and Google and Meta

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Speaker 1: helped push the global advertising industry to a record high.

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Speaker 1: Lots to come. We're back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: The latest News poll shows the federal government and opposition

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Speaker 1: tied on a two party preferred basis ahead of the

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Speaker 1: Christmas break, though Anthony Alberinezi does remain the most preferred

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Speaker 1: prime minister.

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Speaker 2: Good news and bad news for the government. The News

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Speaker 2: poll in the Australian SO two party preferred the parties

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Speaker 2: were at fifty to fifty, which is actually a slight

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Speaker 2: improvement for Labor. They were behind forty nine to fifty

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Speaker 2: one as preferred prime minister. Forty five percent have picked

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Speaker 2: Anthony Aberzi, thirty eight percent Peter Dutton, the rest not

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Speaker 2: so sure. The coalition's primary vote fell one point to

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Speaker 2: thirty nine percent compared to the alp on thirty three percent.

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Speaker 2: The Greens were on eleven percent. Of course, Green's preferences

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Speaker 2: run to Labor generally as a result, that's why you

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Speaker 2: get the tightening when it comes to the two party

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Speaker 2: preferred option. The bad news for the government though, is

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Speaker 2: that Anthony Albanesi is considered the weakest prime minister in

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Speaker 2: decades and Opposition leader Peter Dutton is considered it a

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Speaker 2: stronger and more decisive leader. He is also well Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albanesi is also considered increasingly out of touch with voters,

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Speaker 2: losing an advantage Overdunton in areas including cost of living,

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Speaker 2: the economy, in social unrest.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, you spoke about A and Z earlier. How

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Speaker 1: did local markets perform yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, we're in a bit of a holding pattern, waiting,

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Speaker 2: waiting until the outcome of today's Reserve Bank Board meeting.

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Speaker 2: The board is unlikely to change the benchmark interest rates.

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Speaker 2: It's sitting at four point three five percent, a twelve

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Speaker 2: year high. But I suppose we're all wondering whether or

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Speaker 2: not the Reserve Bank will actually soften its language and

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Speaker 2: suggest that the next move in interest rates is down.

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Speaker 2: It hasn't really done that yet. As a result, equity

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Speaker 2: trading wasn't a lot going on. It was actually lower

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Speaker 2: most of the day, Then it spiked right on four pm.

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Speaker 2: To finish, This is the s and PA six two

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Speaker 2: hundred to finish at eighty two hundred and forty three points.

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Speaker 2: Consumer discretionary stocks did best, Energy companies did at worst.

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Speaker 2: Not a great day for the miners'. Lower iron ore

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Speaker 2: prices hit those guys for to Skew Metals Group ended

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Speaker 2: the day down more than one percent. Goodman Group did well.

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Speaker 2: It jumped nearly four percent. Best of the day Start

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Speaker 2: Entertainment head of new Low Sonic Healthcare said it would

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Speaker 2: buy a German lab group. A bad one was Platinum

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Speaker 2: Asset Management, its share price for fifteen percent. That's after

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Speaker 2: fund manager Regal Partners walked away from a takeover bid

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Speaker 2: for it. Michael and as quickly.

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Speaker 1: International markets much going on well.

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Speaker 2: The price of Goal rose to twenty six to fifty

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Speaker 2: US dollars announce after China's Central Bank added bullion to

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Speaker 2: its reserves in November, something we don't talk much about.

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Speaker 2: Central banks hold Goal. The Reserve Bank of Australia has

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Speaker 2: a stack of gold and they use it almost as

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Speaker 2: a security for the economy. Now central banks have been

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Speaker 2: buying gold, although in China, this Chinese Central Bank has

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Speaker 2: been a massive buyer of gold, but it just sort

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Speaker 2: of stepped back from that. Now it's back in there

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Speaker 2: and that's pushing up the price of gold. Osi Dala

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Speaker 2: continues to sit under sixty four US sense. No good

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Speaker 2: news there really, but Bitco well, it's heading back towards

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Speaker 2: one hundred thousand US dollars a unit our gold.

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Speaker 1: Sean you saw it didn't you when back when you

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Speaker 1: worked at the Reserve Bank you got to go to

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Speaker 1: look at some of our God, but most of ours

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Speaker 1: is now held in London, isn't it? From memory is said,

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Speaker 1: I thought it's in Perth.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's in London. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I feel like there was a story a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago, and this is really going into the archives

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Speaker 1: that most of ours is now kind of stored in London.

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Speaker 1: But I'm still to have been in your position kind

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Speaker 1: of early in your days at the Reserve Bank, I

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Speaker 1: mean eons ago.

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Speaker 2: Bars of gold sitting there Martin Place in Sydney. It

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Speaker 2: was great.

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Speaker 1: That's amazing, amazing experience. You mentioned bitcoin. Sean. You've got

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Speaker 1: an interview coming up after the show. This is a cracker,

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Speaker 1: Mark Carnegie, who is a longtime investor, one of the

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Speaker 1: most well known investors I think in Australia because he

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Speaker 1: does not hold back on an opinion. He's now principal

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Speaker 1: of MH. Carnegie and Co. And he's getting stuck into cryptos.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, he's really interesting on cryptos because he's not

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Speaker 2: I suppose he's pro crypto, but he's come around to

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Speaker 2: that view, particularly bitcoin and what's happened there. Part of

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Speaker 2: it's about regulation in the sector, part of it's about

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. So we talk about that, We talk about

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Speaker 2: why he thinks that Donald Trump's tariff plans are going

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Speaker 2: to cause all sorts of big problems. He also talks

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Speaker 2: about where Australia, well, where there's an opportunity for Australia

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Speaker 2: and why we're not taking advantage of it. As you say,

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Speaker 2: Mark Carnegie, very well known, very outspoken also, and he

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Speaker 2: certainly is in this interview.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great one. It's coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: Sean Woolworth's said it lost about one hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: million dollars in food sales due to the seventeen day

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Speaker 1: strike at its distribution centers in New South Wales and Victoria,

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Speaker 1: and earnings will be down by about sixty million. But

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Speaker 1: Cole's has the opposite problem with too many customers.

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Speaker 2: Sure, apparently there's been a shift from shoppers towards Cole's

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Speaker 2: because Woolies' shelves have been understocked. According to report in

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Speaker 2: The Australian Corles has had to ask suppliers to ship

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Speaker 2: more goods, put on more people to handle the extra volumes.

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Speaker 2: I opened more checkouts deal with high demand. You could

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Speaker 2: imagine woolies. They must hate that. I mean a story

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Speaker 2: like that. Here they are ferociously trying to fill up

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Speaker 2: their shelves and Carls are like, oh, so many people

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Speaker 2: coming to the store.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, it's just oh, it's one of those complaints

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Speaker 1: that you just hear it and you just hear the

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Speaker 1: teeth just grinding, nashing together over and a worths going.

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Speaker 2: How dare you? Yeah, yeah, Well the ware house staff

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Speaker 2: are back at work, which is good news for bullies.

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Speaker 1: Sean Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and the President of Nauru

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Speaker 1: have signed a new treaty providing one hundred million dollars

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Speaker 1: for the Nauru budget and forty million dollars to enhance policing, security,

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Speaker 1: training and infrastructure over five years.

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Speaker 2: As part of the deal, the Commonwealth Bank will provide

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Speaker 2: support from next year. Bennigo Bank is in Nuru now

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Speaker 2: it's pulling out and come Off Bank will replace it,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Abernezi said. The treaty underscores the commitment to strengthening

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Speaker 2: Pacific relations, making the region stronger and safer. Nuru's President,

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Speaker 2: David Adiyang said the treaty will strengthen Neru's economy and

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Speaker 2: address critical challenges such as a banking isn't it nice

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Speaker 2: to have a final local news story that leads it

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Speaker 2: well into international news, Michael, it does.

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Speaker 1: It's quite seamless, really, isn't it. Turning to international news,

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Speaker 1: President Joe Biden John said United States military forces have

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Speaker 1: been conducting air strikes in Syria to keep the Islamic

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Speaker 1: State Group from reasserting itself after the fall of President

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Speaker 1: Bashah Alissad's government. This is just it's one of those

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Speaker 1: things that one problem goes in terms of the Assad regime,

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Speaker 1: and there's the potential now for a whole new problem

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Speaker 1: to emerge.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, beware what you wish for. Speaking at the

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Speaker 2: White House, mister Biden celebrated Assad's fall as a fundamental

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Speaker 2: act of justice and expressed hope that after decades of

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Speaker 2: oppressive rule, the people of Syria could build a new,

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Speaker 2: free society. But according to The New York Times, mister

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Speaker 2: Biden warned that was also a moment of risk and uncertainty,

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Speaker 2: and that his administration would strive in its final days

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Speaker 2: to prevent terrorists from regraining traction. Meanwhile, the ousted mister

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Speaker 2: Assad and his family have reportedly fled to Moscow, where

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Speaker 2: the dictator's chief ally Russian President Vladimir Putin, has given

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Speaker 2: them asylum.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, in his first post election TV interview, has

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Speaker 1: said that he wants to see those who investigated his

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Speaker 1: role in the January sixth, twenty twenty one riots at

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Speaker 1: the White House jailed. So he's not talking about the

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Speaker 1: people who were involved in nut riots. He's talking about

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Speaker 1: the people who investigated him for his role in the

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Speaker 1: January sixth riots.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so we're talking about politicians who led the inquiry.

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Speaker 2: There seven of them, two of them were Republicans. It's

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Speaker 2: very rare for a politician and a democracy to want

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Speaker 2: his opponents jailed, at least saying it publicly. Very rare.

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Speaker 2: Mister Trump also pushed his desire to deport all undocumented immigrants,

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Speaker 2: including their family members, even if they're in the US legally.

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Speaker 2: He was speaking on NBC's Meet the Press. He said,

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Speaker 2: all members of that inquiry into those riots, which actually

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Speaker 2: them inquire It still concluded that mister Trump actively inspired

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Speaker 2: his supporters to commit violence in his name. Well, he

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Speaker 2: thinks all those people should be incarcerated.

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Speaker 1: Finally sean one last one. The global advertising industry will

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Speaker 1: push past one trillion US dollars in revenue for the

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Speaker 1: first time this year, with Google, Meta Byteedance, Amazon and

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Speaker 1: ali Baba tip to earn more than fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: the total revenue available.

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Speaker 2: That is huge just taken over. The World Media Agency

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Speaker 2: Group M estimates that global advertising revenue will increase nearly

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Speaker 2: ten percent this year, despite tough economic conditions in larger

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Speaker 2: developed markets like the US and UK. The group forecasts

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Speaker 2: that most of the growth will directly benefit the largest

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Speaker 2: sellers of digital advertising in the US tech sector, rather

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Speaker 2: than providers of other marketing services like ad agencies. According

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Speaker 2: to a report in the Financial Times. Now the figures

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Speaker 2: don't include the US political advertising market, which contribute about

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Speaker 2: fifteen point one billion dollars. It just skews the numbers

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Speaker 2: too much. Digital advertising is forecast to account for seventy

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Speaker 2: three percent of total revenue by the end of next year,

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Speaker 2: or eighty two percent when you include revenue from streaming

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Speaker 2: and digital newspapers and magazines. Globally, total print advertising will

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Speaker 2: be down about five percent this year and more again

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Speaker 2: next year. Audio revenue will remain flat, while TV including

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Speaker 2: both linear and streaming, will grow slightly, but that's all

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Speaker 2: in the back of streaming. Okay.

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Speaker 1: Up next Sean is the Fear and Greed Daily interview

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Speaker 1: with investor Mark Carnegie. That is up in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au, which is also where you can

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Speaker 1: sign up for the free weekly newsletter. It is coming

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Speaker 1: out tomorrow, so get on board that right away and

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Speaker 1: you get Sean's thoughts and opinions on a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: of stories for the week. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, the tenth of December twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.