WEBVTT - Could the Flydubai attack keep Netanyahu in power?

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<v Speaker 1>Big events have always had the power to shape elections.

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<v Speaker 1>John Howard and the Tampa affair.

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<v Speaker 2>We will decide who comes to this country and the

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<v Speaker 2>circumstances in which they come.

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<v Speaker 1>The attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>I stand before you in this arena only by the

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<v Speaker 3>grace of almighty God.

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<v Speaker 1>And it doesn't get much bigger than a foiled attempt

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<v Speaker 1>to bring down a plane mid-flight. One week on from

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<v Speaker 1>the fly-Jabai incident, details are continuing to filter out about

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<v Speaker 1>the pilot accused of stabbing his colleague in an effort

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<v Speaker 1>to crash the Tel Aviv-bound plane. And as investigations continue,

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin Netanyahu has been front and centre, with the Israel

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<v Speaker 1>election just weeks away.

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<v Speaker 2>I asked him, how did you know how to do that?

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<v Speaker 2>And he said, well, I watch these air disaster films.

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<v Speaker 2>I told that to President Trump yesterday. He was amazed,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, because we all see these films. So to

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<v Speaker 2>actually be in this thing, this is Hollywood on steroids.

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<v Speaker 4>You can't make this up. You can't believe that it

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<v Speaker 4>actually happens in real life.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to 7AM. Today, Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East correspondent for The Economist, Greg Karlstrom, on what we

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<v Speaker 1>know about what happened on FlyJubai Flight 1073 and whether

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<v Speaker 1>Netanyahu could use it to help him get re-elected as

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<v Speaker 1>Israel's president. It's Thursday, October 8th. Greg, let's begin with

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<v Speaker 1>the co-pilot who is suspected of trying to bring down

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<v Speaker 1>the fly-by plane on route to Tel Aviv. So he's

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<v Speaker 1>been named as Amani National, Hammam al-Hammami. He's been interrogated

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<v Speaker 1>by UAE authorities, and more details are emerging about him

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<v Speaker 1>and his background every day. What do we know at

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<v Speaker 1>this point?

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>So the biographical details that have come out suggest what

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<v Speaker 5>sounds like a very peripatetic response life. He was born

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<v Speaker 5>to an Armani father and a Syrian mother, grew up

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<v Speaker 5>for a few years in the UAE, the United Arab Emirates,

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<v Speaker 5>eventually moved back to Oman. But there are some reports

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<v Speaker 5>also that he may have studied in the UK for

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<v Speaker 5>a stretch. He may have studied in Australia as well

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<v Speaker 5>for a period of time. Investigators in both of those

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<v Speaker 5>countries are looking into that. And then ultimately, went on

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<v Speaker 5>to work for Armand Air, which is the state-owned carrier

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<v Speaker 5>in that country, worked there for several years, left, moved

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<v Speaker 5>to Morocco, had a brief stint with the Moroccan airline,

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<v Speaker 5>and then moved to Dubai not that long ago to

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<v Speaker 5>take up work at FlyDubai. So bouncing all over the

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<v Speaker 5>place in terms of his personal life, his biographical details.

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<v Speaker 1>And there are reports coming out now that the plan

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<v Speaker 1>might have been for an attack earlier this year. There

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<v Speaker 1>are also reports of different potential targets, including Tel Aviv's

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<v Speaker 1>main airport.

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<v Speaker 3>Sources tell CNN that the suspect likely wanted to crash

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<v Speaker 3>the plane with more than 170 passengers into Israel's Ben

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<v Speaker 3>Gurion Airport, the country's main international hub, with an untold

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<v Speaker 3>thousands of commuters on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk me through what we know at this point about

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<v Speaker 1>what he was actually planning on attempting.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>It sounds like essentially a 9-11 style attack, right? Using

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<v Speaker 5>the plane itself as a weapon, planning to fly it

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<v Speaker 5>into something. There have been some reports that the target

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<v Speaker 5>may have been downtown Tel Aviv, that he may have

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<v Speaker 5>been planning to fly into skyscrapers there. Obviously, that would

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<v Speaker 5>be very reminiscent of September 11th, but also some reporting,

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<v Speaker 5>as you say, that Ben Gurion Airport, the main international airport,

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<v Speaker 5>might have been a target.

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<v Speaker 6>The official says the co-pilot, identified by multiple sources as

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<v Speaker 6>Hamam al-Hammami, has told investigators he wanted to evade Israel's defenses,

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<v Speaker 6>then crash into the airport or another building in Tel Aviv.

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<v Speaker 5>And then if he was unable to do that, reportedly,

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<v Speaker 5>if he was unable to reach Israel as a sort

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<v Speaker 5>of backup plan, he was aiming to fly into an

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<v Speaker 5>American base in Jordan, a military base that American troops

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<v Speaker 5>have been using in Jordan, particularly this year, where it's

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<v Speaker 5>been a major hub for American warplanes involved in the

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<v Speaker 5>war with Iran. So Again, some sort of mass casualty

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<v Speaker 5>attack against a civilian target was the main goal here.

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<v Speaker 5>And then if he wasn't able to do that, an

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<v Speaker 5>attack against the military base.

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<v Speaker 1>And you mentioned that he at one point worked for

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<v Speaker 1>Oman Air. They had reportedly banned him from flying over

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<v Speaker 1>concerns that he was showing an interest in radical ideology.

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<v Speaker 1>So do we know how he got hired by FlyJabai?

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<v Speaker 5>There's been a bit of a blame game around that

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<v Speaker 5>in some of the leaks that have been coming out.

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<v Speaker 5>And this is something that investigators are no doubt going

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<v Speaker 5>to look into. I think there's blame to go around.

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<v Speaker 5>On the one hand, Oman didn't initially fire him. They

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<v Speaker 5>reassigned him to a different role within the company. They

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<v Speaker 5>moved him off the pilot track and to a desk job,

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<v Speaker 5>essentially an administrative role where he wouldn't be able to

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<v Speaker 5>fly planes. And so because they did that, There may

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<v Speaker 5>not have been some big red flag in his file

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<v Speaker 5>saying this person was fired for extremist views. On the

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<v Speaker 5>other hand, you would imagine that his employment at Armand

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<v Speaker 5>Air was public.

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<v Speaker 4>It was listed on his LinkedIn page.

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<v Speaker 5>So when he took up employment with FlyDubai or when

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<v Speaker 5>he was applying to work at FlyDubai, you would expect

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<v Speaker 5>both authorities there and authorities in the UAE to contact

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<v Speaker 5>the Armanis to ask if there were any concerns about him.

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<v Speaker 5>This is a state-owned airline in a country that takes

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<v Speaker 5>security quite seriously. And so there were obviously some failures

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<v Speaker 5>somewhere on the Emirati side as well. Other employees from

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<v Speaker 5>FlyDubai are being questioned by interrogators, people who were involved

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<v Speaker 5>in the hiring process, I think, to find out exactly

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<v Speaker 5>what went wrong here and why that information from the

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<v Speaker 5>Armanis was never either transmitted to FlyDubai or made use

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<v Speaker 5>of by.

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<v Speaker 4>The officials there.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and as an Omani national, he actually wasn't supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to be operating a flight to Israel at all. And

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<v Speaker 1>now we have Israel and the UAE both blaming each other,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, for how he ended up on that flight.

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<v Speaker 5>And again, I think there will be blame to go around.

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<v Speaker 5>You're right that in general, airlines are not supposed to

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<v Speaker 5>assign pilots to flights to Israel. if they are from

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<v Speaker 5>countries that don't have diplomatic relations with Israel. And so

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<v Speaker 5>we've heard Israeli politicians, Israeli security officials faulting the UAE

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<v Speaker 5>for that. Ultimately, though, Israel has the final say on

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<v Speaker 5>who is able to fly a plane to the country, right?

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<v Speaker 5>The manifest for any flight headed to Israel is sent

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<v Speaker 5>to authorities there. Ahead of time, that manifest includes the

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<v Speaker 5>names and nationalities of of the flight crew working that flight.

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<v Speaker 5>And so the Israelis could have told FlyDubai that this

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<v Speaker 5>person should not be allowed to work this route. There

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<v Speaker 5>have been cases in the past where they have told

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<v Speaker 5>Turkish Airlines not to send a pilot from a country

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<v Speaker 5>that did not have diplomatic relations with Israel. But it

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<v Speaker 5>sounds as if Either the Israelis didn't properly review the manifest.

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<v Speaker 5>There's a bit of a question about who exactly is

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<v Speaker 5>supposed to do that. The Shin Bet is the main

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<v Speaker 5>security agency in Israel, but the transportation ministry has authority

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<v Speaker 5>over foreign airlines that are flying to Israel. They're the

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<v Speaker 5>ones that actually vet the manifests. And so this may

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<v Speaker 5>have just fallen through the cracks, but it seems like

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<v Speaker 5>a security failure within the Israeli system where this didn't

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<v Speaker 5>raise any flags that it should have.

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<v Speaker 1>Still to come, the potential impact on Netanyahu's re-election chances.

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin Netanyahu has been at the helm of this story

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<v Speaker 1>from the moment it happened. He took photos, did interviews

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<v Speaker 1>with people who were on the plane. He appeared on

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<v Speaker 1>US TV in the hours after it happened.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran and its proxies are trying to conduct attacks against

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<v Speaker 2>Israel and Israelis right now in this election season. And therefore,

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<v Speaker 2>I asked Israelis to be on special alert. But we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to probably draw a lot of conclusions from this

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<v Speaker 2>investigation and tighten up the security. We always try to

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<v Speaker 2>do that.

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<v Speaker 4>We do a pretty good job of it.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think he sees this as a political opportunity?

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<v Speaker 5>He certainly seems to think it's a political opportunity. You're

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<v Speaker 5>right that he very quickly was cutting these campaign-style videos

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<v Speaker 5>and splashing them all over social media.

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<v Speaker 2>Captain, I want to invite you and my dear friend,

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to light a celebratory flame on

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<v Speaker 2>our next independent day. You are a true hero of

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<v Speaker 2>the brave peoples of India and Israel, and you're a

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<v Speaker 2>hero of the entire world.

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<v Speaker 5>The further we get from this event, the more I'm

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<v Speaker 5>unsure that it's actually useful to him. I mean, he's

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<v Speaker 5>trying to present this as further evidence for his main

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<v Speaker 5>campaign pitch, which is the world is a very dangerous place,

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<v Speaker 5>Israel's in a very dangerous neighborhood, and only I, Benjamin Netanyahu,

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<v Speaker 5>can keep you safe. But actually, in this event, I mean,

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<v Speaker 5>first of all, again, there was a security failure. And

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<v Speaker 5>it's going to remind Israeli voters that of the much

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<v Speaker 5>bigger security failure that preceded the October 7th massacre. And

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<v Speaker 5>then also the Netanyahu government didn't actually do anything here

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<v Speaker 5>to keep Israelis safe. What prevented a tragedy on that

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<v Speaker 5>plane was the quick thinking of the pilot who opened

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<v Speaker 5>the door to the cockpit and allowed a handful of

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<v Speaker 5>ordinary Israeli passengers to come in and restrain the co-pilot

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<v Speaker 5>and then get the plane out of a dive and

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<v Speaker 5>back into level flight. The Israeli government really had nothing to.

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<v Speaker 4>Do with this.

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<v Speaker 5>And so Netanyahu trying to make this a campaign pitch

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<v Speaker 5>for voters, I'm not sure it's actually going to do

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<v Speaker 5>what he hopes it's going to do.

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<v Speaker 1>And this comes at a time when Netanyahu has been

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<v Speaker 1>fending off questions about whether he ignored warnings ahead of

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<v Speaker 1>October 7th, How politically damaging has that been, just wakes

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<v Speaker 1>out from the elections?

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<v Speaker 5>They were explosive reports that started coming out back in

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<v Speaker 5>September in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and then in other

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<v Speaker 5>media outlets as well, suggesting that the president of the

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<v Speaker 5>United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, called Netanyahu just a

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<v Speaker 5>couple of weeks before October 7th to tell him that

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<v Speaker 5>he had received intelligence that Hamas was planning a some

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<v Speaker 5>sort of major attack, something that would shake Israel, that

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<v Speaker 5>would change the region, and urge the Israeli government to

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<v Speaker 5>take that seriously. And the Emirati president was basically dismissed

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<v Speaker 5>by Netanyahu, who didn't take those reports seriously.

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<v Speaker 4>So a bombshell story.

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<v Speaker 7>For his part, Netanyahu wrote on social media that no

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<v Speaker 7>such call took place between September and October 7th and

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<v Speaker 7>called the story a malicious fabrication with a clear political timing.

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<v Speaker 4>How much did it hurt him politically? Less than you

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<v Speaker 4>might think.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, if you look at the polls, actually, he

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<v Speaker 5>seems to have gained perhaps a seat or two in

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<v Speaker 5>parliament since these reports first came out. I think the

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<v Speaker 5>problem is Netanyahu has been in power for the better

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<v Speaker 5>part of the past two decades. Everyone in Israel has

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<v Speaker 5>a fully formed view at this point of the Israeli

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<v Speaker 5>prime minister. There's a large chunk of the country that

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<v Speaker 5>hates him, that wants him gone. there is a smaller

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<v Speaker 5>chunk of the country that will stand by him sort

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<v Speaker 5>of no matter what. And I think it's very hard

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<v Speaker 5>for anything at this point to create a dramatic swing

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<v Speaker 5>one way or the other. I think politics have become

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<v Speaker 5>deeply polarized in Israel and deeply personalized. And if you

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<v Speaker 5>love Netanyahu after everything that has happened over the past

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<v Speaker 5>few years, I don't think there is anything that is

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<v Speaker 5>going to make you change your mind at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so if Netanyahu doesn't win this upcoming election? How

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<v Speaker 1>significant would that be? And what would it mean for

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East, for Gaza, for Iran?

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<v Speaker 5>It would be very significant for Israel if someone like

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<v Speaker 5>Gadi Eisenkot, who is his main centrist or center-right challenger,

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<v Speaker 5>were to win the election. I think you've had years

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<v Speaker 5>in which the Netanyahu government has been empowering the far-right

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<v Speaker 5>of Israeli politics, has been pursuing the all sorts of

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<v Speaker 5>anti-democratic or undemocratic reforms trying to weaken the Supreme Court,

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<v Speaker 5>trying to undermine the free press in Israel. So a

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<v Speaker 5>change of leadership would probably reverse many of these trends internally.

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<v Speaker 5>What does it mean for Gaza, the rest of the region?

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<v Speaker 5>I think there it's much less clear that we would

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<v Speaker 5>see a dramatic change. I would expect in the West Bank,

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<v Speaker 5>where settler violence has reached unprecedented levels over the past

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<v Speaker 5>few years, a new government might take that a bit

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<v Speaker 5>more seriously, might try to crack down on that, certainly

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 5>at least would not encourage or look the other way

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<v Speaker 5>at settler violence against Palestinian civilians the way this government has.

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<v Speaker 5>In Gaza, I think the next government's policy will depend

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<v Speaker 5>to a large extent on What Hamas does.

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<v Speaker 4>Does it agree to disarm?

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<v Speaker 5>Does it meet its commitments under the ceasefire that it

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<v Speaker 5>accepted in October of last year and start handing over

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<v Speaker 5>its weapons and really relinquishing power in Gaza? And we

0:14:32.820 --> 0:14:35.160
<v Speaker 5>don't know if it's going to do that so far.

0:14:35.250 --> 0:14:39.430
<v Speaker 5>All signs suggest that it's not. Similarly, in Lebanon, would

0:14:39.450 --> 0:14:43.430
<v Speaker 5>a different Israeli government withdraw? That depends on whether the

0:14:43.470 --> 0:14:47.090
<v Speaker 5>Lebanese army is able to effectively deploy in southern Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 5>whether it's able to begin disarming Hezbollah. And so I

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<v Speaker 5>think you might find that, yes, in the West Bank,

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<v Speaker 5>there could be a meaningful change. But for Israel's other

0:14:59.030 --> 0:15:02.690
<v Speaker 5>wars and conflicts around the region, a new government may

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<v Speaker 5>be a less dramatic break with Netanyahu than people are expecting.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Greg, thank you so much for speaking with me.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, a landmark ruling in the High

0:15:27.510 --> 0:15:30.690
<v Speaker 1>Court has found authorities must consider the emissions caused by

0:15:30.750 --> 0:15:35.260
<v Speaker 1>burning fossil fuels overseas when approving projects. A Hunter Valley

0:15:35.300 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 1>community group won the fight, with the court ruling that

0:15:37.620 --> 0:15:41.180
<v Speaker 1>the approval of the coal mine expansion in Musselbrook was invalid.

0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.380
<v Speaker 1>The case is expected to set a national precedent for

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<v Speaker 1>the way fossil fuel approvals take global emissions and local

0:15:47.650 --> 0:15:51.600
<v Speaker 1>climate change into account. And Dave Hughes says he's been

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<v Speaker 1>forced to stop speaking at Liberal Party events after a

0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 1>report to the Victorian Electoral Commission. Hughes, who's been a

0:15:58.380 --> 0:16:02.540
<v Speaker 1>vocal critic of Labor since Albanese's negative gearing and CGT changes,

0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:06.020
<v Speaker 1>had been providing his speaking services free of charge in

0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.940
<v Speaker 1>the lead up to the Victorian election. But because of

0:16:08.980 --> 0:16:11.580
<v Speaker 1>what he usually charges for that service, it could be

0:16:11.620 --> 0:16:13.660
<v Speaker 1>seen to be in breach of donation limits.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm Ruby Jones.

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<v Speaker 1>This is 7am. Thanks for listening.

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<v Speaker 6>You