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Speaker 1: Big events have always had the power to shape elections.

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Speaker 1: John Howard and the Tampa affair.

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Speaker 2: We will decide who comes to this country and the

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Speaker 2: circumstances in which they come.

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Speaker 1: The attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: I stand before you in this arena only by the

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Speaker 3: grace of almighty God.

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Speaker 1: And it doesn't get much bigger than a foiled attempt

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Speaker 1: to bring down a plane mid-flight. One week on from

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Speaker 1: the fly-Jabai incident, details are continuing to filter out about

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Speaker 1: the pilot accused of stabbing his colleague in an effort

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Speaker 1: to crash the Tel Aviv-bound plane. And as investigations continue,

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Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu has been front and centre, with the Israel

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Speaker 1: election just weeks away.

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Speaker 2: I asked him, how did you know how to do that?

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Speaker 2: And he said, well, I watch these air disaster films.

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Speaker 2: I told that to President Trump yesterday. He was amazed,

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Speaker 2: you know, because we all see these films. So to

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Speaker 2: actually be in this thing, this is Hollywood on steroids.

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Speaker 4: You can't make this up. You can't believe that it

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Speaker 4: actually happens in real life.

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Speaker 1: I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to 7AM. Today, Middle

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Speaker 1: East correspondent for The Economist, Greg Karlstrom, on what we

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Speaker 1: know about what happened on FlyJubai Flight 1073 and whether

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Speaker 1: Netanyahu could use it to help him get re-elected as

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Speaker 1: Israel's president. It's Thursday, October 8th. Greg, let's begin with

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Speaker 1: the co-pilot who is suspected of trying to bring down

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Speaker 1: the fly-by plane on route to Tel Aviv. So he's

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Speaker 1: been named as Amani National, Hammam al-Hammami. He's been interrogated

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Speaker 1: by UAE authorities, and more details are emerging about him

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Speaker 1: and his background every day. What do we know at

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Speaker 1: this point?

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: So the biographical details that have come out suggest what

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Speaker 5: sounds like a very peripatetic response life. He was born

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Speaker 5: to an Armani father and a Syrian mother, grew up

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Speaker 5: for a few years in the UAE, the United Arab Emirates,

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Speaker 5: eventually moved back to Oman. But there are some reports

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Speaker 5: also that he may have studied in the UK for

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Speaker 5: a stretch. He may have studied in Australia as well

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Speaker 5: for a period of time. Investigators in both of those

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Speaker 5: countries are looking into that. And then ultimately, went on

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Speaker 5: to work for Armand Air, which is the state-owned carrier

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Speaker 5: in that country, worked there for several years, left, moved

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Speaker 5: to Morocco, had a brief stint with the Moroccan airline,

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Speaker 5: and then moved to Dubai not that long ago to

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Speaker 5: take up work at FlyDubai. So bouncing all over the

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Speaker 5: place in terms of his personal life, his biographical details.

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Speaker 1: And there are reports coming out now that the plan

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Speaker 1: might have been for an attack earlier this year. There

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Speaker 1: are also reports of different potential targets, including Tel Aviv's

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Speaker 1: main airport.

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Speaker 3: Sources tell CNN that the suspect likely wanted to crash

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Speaker 3: the plane with more than 170 passengers into Israel's Ben

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Speaker 3: Gurion Airport, the country's main international hub, with an untold

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Speaker 3: thousands of commuters on the ground.

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Speaker 1: Talk me through what we know at this point about

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Speaker 1: what he was actually planning on attempting.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 5: It sounds like essentially a 9-11 style attack, right? Using

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Speaker 5: the plane itself as a weapon, planning to fly it

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Speaker 5: into something. There have been some reports that the target

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Speaker 5: may have been downtown Tel Aviv, that he may have

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Speaker 5: been planning to fly into skyscrapers there. Obviously, that would

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Speaker 5: be very reminiscent of September 11th, but also some reporting,

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Speaker 5: as you say, that Ben Gurion Airport, the main international airport,

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Speaker 5: might have been a target.

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Speaker 6: The official says the co-pilot, identified by multiple sources as

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Speaker 6: Hamam al-Hammami, has told investigators he wanted to evade Israel's defenses,

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Speaker 6: then crash into the airport or another building in Tel Aviv.

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Speaker 5: And then if he was unable to do that, reportedly,

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Speaker 5: if he was unable to reach Israel as a sort

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Speaker 5: of backup plan, he was aiming to fly into an

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Speaker 5: American base in Jordan, a military base that American troops

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Speaker 5: have been using in Jordan, particularly this year, where it's

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Speaker 5: been a major hub for American warplanes involved in the

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Speaker 5: war with Iran. So Again, some sort of mass casualty

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Speaker 5: attack against a civilian target was the main goal here.

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Speaker 5: And then if he wasn't able to do that, an

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Speaker 5: attack against the military base.

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Speaker 1: And you mentioned that he at one point worked for

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Speaker 1: Oman Air. They had reportedly banned him from flying over

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Speaker 1: concerns that he was showing an interest in radical ideology.

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Speaker 1: So do we know how he got hired by FlyJabai?

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Speaker 5: There's been a bit of a blame game around that

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Speaker 5: in some of the leaks that have been coming out.

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Speaker 5: And this is something that investigators are no doubt going

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Speaker 5: to look into. I think there's blame to go around.

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Speaker 5: On the one hand, Oman didn't initially fire him. They

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Speaker 5: reassigned him to a different role within the company. They

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Speaker 5: moved him off the pilot track and to a desk job,

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Speaker 5: essentially an administrative role where he wouldn't be able to

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Speaker 5: fly planes. And so because they did that, There may

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Speaker 5: not have been some big red flag in his file

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Speaker 5: saying this person was fired for extremist views. On the

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Speaker 5: other hand, you would imagine that his employment at Armand

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Speaker 5: Air was public.

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Speaker 4: It was listed on his LinkedIn page.

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Speaker 5: So when he took up employment with FlyDubai or when

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Speaker 5: he was applying to work at FlyDubai, you would expect

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Speaker 5: both authorities there and authorities in the UAE to contact

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Speaker 5: the Armanis to ask if there were any concerns about him.

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Speaker 5: This is a state-owned airline in a country that takes

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Speaker 5: security quite seriously. And so there were obviously some failures

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Speaker 5: somewhere on the Emirati side as well. Other employees from

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Speaker 5: FlyDubai are being questioned by interrogators, people who were involved

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Speaker 5: in the hiring process, I think, to find out exactly

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Speaker 5: what went wrong here and why that information from the

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Speaker 5: Armanis was never either transmitted to FlyDubai or made use

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Speaker 5: of by.

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Speaker 4: The officials there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and as an Omani national, he actually wasn't supposed

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Speaker 1: to be operating a flight to Israel at all. And

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Speaker 1: now we have Israel and the UAE both blaming each other,

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Speaker 1: as you say, for how he ended up on that flight.

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Speaker 5: And again, I think there will be blame to go around.

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Speaker 5: You're right that in general, airlines are not supposed to

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Speaker 5: assign pilots to flights to Israel. if they are from

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Speaker 5: countries that don't have diplomatic relations with Israel. And so

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Speaker 5: we've heard Israeli politicians, Israeli security officials faulting the UAE

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Speaker 5: for that. Ultimately, though, Israel has the final say on

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Speaker 5: who is able to fly a plane to the country, right?

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Speaker 5: The manifest for any flight headed to Israel is sent

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Speaker 5: to authorities there. Ahead of time, that manifest includes the

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Speaker 5: names and nationalities of of the flight crew working that flight.

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Speaker 5: And so the Israelis could have told FlyDubai that this

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Speaker 5: person should not be allowed to work this route. There

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Speaker 5: have been cases in the past where they have told

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Speaker 5: Turkish Airlines not to send a pilot from a country

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Speaker 5: that did not have diplomatic relations with Israel. But it

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Speaker 5: sounds as if Either the Israelis didn't properly review the manifest.

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Speaker 5: There's a bit of a question about who exactly is

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Speaker 5: supposed to do that. The Shin Bet is the main

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Speaker 5: security agency in Israel, but the transportation ministry has authority

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Speaker 5: over foreign airlines that are flying to Israel. They're the

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Speaker 5: ones that actually vet the manifests. And so this may

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Speaker 5: have just fallen through the cracks, but it seems like

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Speaker 5: a security failure within the Israeli system where this didn't

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Speaker 5: raise any flags that it should have.

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Speaker 1: Still to come, the potential impact on Netanyahu's re-election chances.

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Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu has been at the helm of this story

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Speaker 1: from the moment it happened. He took photos, did interviews

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Speaker 1: with people who were on the plane. He appeared on

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Speaker 1: US TV in the hours after it happened.

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Speaker 2: Iran and its proxies are trying to conduct attacks against

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Speaker 2: Israel and Israelis right now in this election season. And therefore,

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Speaker 2: I asked Israelis to be on special alert. But we're

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Speaker 2: going to probably draw a lot of conclusions from this

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Speaker 2: investigation and tighten up the security. We always try to

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Speaker 2: do that.

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Speaker 4: We do a pretty good job of it.

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Speaker 1: Do you think he sees this as a political opportunity?

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Speaker 5: He certainly seems to think it's a political opportunity. You're

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Speaker 5: right that he very quickly was cutting these campaign-style videos

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Speaker 5: and splashing them all over social media.

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Speaker 2: Captain, I want to invite you and my dear friend,

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to light a celebratory flame on

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Speaker 2: our next independent day. You are a true hero of

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Speaker 2: the brave peoples of India and Israel, and you're a

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Speaker 2: hero of the entire world.

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Speaker 5: The further we get from this event, the more I'm

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Speaker 5: unsure that it's actually useful to him. I mean, he's

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Speaker 5: trying to present this as further evidence for his main

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Speaker 5: campaign pitch, which is the world is a very dangerous place,

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Speaker 5: Israel's in a very dangerous neighborhood, and only I, Benjamin Netanyahu,

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Speaker 5: can keep you safe. But actually, in this event, I mean,

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Speaker 5: first of all, again, there was a security failure. And

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Speaker 5: it's going to remind Israeli voters that of the much

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Speaker 5: bigger security failure that preceded the October 7th massacre. And

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Speaker 5: then also the Netanyahu government didn't actually do anything here

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Speaker 5: to keep Israelis safe. What prevented a tragedy on that

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Speaker 5: plane was the quick thinking of the pilot who opened

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Speaker 5: the door to the cockpit and allowed a handful of

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Speaker 5: ordinary Israeli passengers to come in and restrain the co-pilot

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Speaker 5: and then get the plane out of a dive and

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Speaker 5: back into level flight. The Israeli government really had nothing to.

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Speaker 4: Do with this.

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Speaker 5: And so Netanyahu trying to make this a campaign pitch

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Speaker 5: for voters, I'm not sure it's actually going to do

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Speaker 5: what he hopes it's going to do.

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Speaker 1: And this comes at a time when Netanyahu has been

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Speaker 1: fending off questions about whether he ignored warnings ahead of

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Speaker 1: October 7th, How politically damaging has that been, just wakes

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Speaker 1: out from the elections?

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Speaker 5: They were explosive reports that started coming out back in

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Speaker 5: September in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and then in other

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Speaker 5: media outlets as well, suggesting that the president of the

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Speaker 5: United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, called Netanyahu just a

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Speaker 5: couple of weeks before October 7th to tell him that

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Speaker 5: he had received intelligence that Hamas was planning a some

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Speaker 5: sort of major attack, something that would shake Israel, that

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Speaker 5: would change the region, and urge the Israeli government to

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Speaker 5: take that seriously. And the Emirati president was basically dismissed

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Speaker 5: by Netanyahu, who didn't take those reports seriously.

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Speaker 4: So a bombshell story.

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Speaker 7: For his part, Netanyahu wrote on social media that no

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Speaker 7: such call took place between September and October 7th and

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Speaker 7: called the story a malicious fabrication with a clear political timing.

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Speaker 4: How much did it hurt him politically? Less than you

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Speaker 4: might think.

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Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at the polls, actually, he

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Speaker 5: seems to have gained perhaps a seat or two in

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Speaker 5: parliament since these reports first came out. I think the

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Speaker 5: problem is Netanyahu has been in power for the better

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Speaker 5: part of the past two decades. Everyone in Israel has

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Speaker 5: a fully formed view at this point of the Israeli

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Speaker 5: prime minister. There's a large chunk of the country that

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Speaker 5: hates him, that wants him gone. there is a smaller

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Speaker 5: chunk of the country that will stand by him sort

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Speaker 5: of no matter what. And I think it's very hard

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Speaker 5: for anything at this point to create a dramatic swing

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Speaker 5: one way or the other. I think politics have become

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Speaker 5: deeply polarized in Israel and deeply personalized. And if you

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Speaker 5: love Netanyahu after everything that has happened over the past

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Speaker 5: few years, I don't think there is anything that is

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Speaker 5: going to make you change your mind at this point.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so if Netanyahu doesn't win this upcoming election? How

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Speaker 1: significant would that be? And what would it mean for

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, for Gaza, for Iran?

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Speaker 5: It would be very significant for Israel if someone like

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Speaker 5: Gadi Eisenkot, who is his main centrist or center-right challenger,

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Speaker 5: were to win the election. I think you've had years

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Speaker 5: in which the Netanyahu government has been empowering the far-right

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Speaker 5: of Israeli politics, has been pursuing the all sorts of

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Speaker 5: anti-democratic or undemocratic reforms trying to weaken the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 5: trying to undermine the free press in Israel. So a

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Speaker 5: change of leadership would probably reverse many of these trends internally.

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Speaker 5: What does it mean for Gaza, the rest of the region?

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Speaker 5: I think there it's much less clear that we would

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Speaker 5: see a dramatic change. I would expect in the West Bank,

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Speaker 5: where settler violence has reached unprecedented levels over the past

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Speaker 5: few years, a new government might take that a bit

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Speaker 5: more seriously, might try to crack down on that, certainly

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Speaker 5: at least would not encourage or look the other way

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Speaker 5: at settler violence against Palestinian civilians the way this government has.

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Speaker 5: In Gaza, I think the next government's policy will depend

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Speaker 5: to a large extent on What Hamas does.

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Speaker 4: Does it agree to disarm?

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Speaker 5: Does it meet its commitments under the ceasefire that it

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Speaker 5: accepted in October of last year and start handing over

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Speaker 5: its weapons and really relinquishing power in Gaza? And we

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Speaker 5: don't know if it's going to do that so far.

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Speaker 5: All signs suggest that it's not. Similarly, in Lebanon, would

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Speaker 5: a different Israeli government withdraw? That depends on whether the

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Speaker 5: Lebanese army is able to effectively deploy in southern Lebanon,

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Speaker 5: whether it's able to begin disarming Hezbollah. And so I

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Speaker 5: think you might find that, yes, in the West Bank,

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Speaker 5: there could be a meaningful change. But for Israel's other

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Speaker 5: wars and conflicts around the region, a new government may

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Speaker 5: be a less dramatic break with Netanyahu than people are expecting.

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Speaker 1: Well, Greg, thank you so much for speaking with me.

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Speaker 4: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Also in the news, a landmark ruling in the High

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Speaker 1: Court has found authorities must consider the emissions caused by

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Speaker 1: burning fossil fuels overseas when approving projects. A Hunter Valley

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Speaker 1: community group won the fight, with the court ruling that

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Speaker 1: the approval of the coal mine expansion in Musselbrook was invalid.

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Speaker 1: The case is expected to set a national precedent for

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Speaker 1: the way fossil fuel approvals take global emissions and local

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Speaker 1: climate change into account. And Dave Hughes says he's been

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Speaker 1: forced to stop speaking at Liberal Party events after a

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Speaker 1: report to the Victorian Electoral Commission. Hughes, who's been a

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Speaker 1: vocal critic of Labor since Albanese's negative gearing and CGT changes,

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Speaker 1: had been providing his speaking services free of charge in

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Speaker 1: the lead up to the Victorian election. But because of

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Speaker 1: what he usually charges for that service, it could be

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Speaker 1: seen to be in breach of donation limits.

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Speaker 4: I'm Ruby Jones.

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Speaker 1: This is 7am. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 6: You