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Speaker 1: There's a concern that Australia is not prepared to defend

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Speaker 1: ourselves and a security blueprint. An immediate security blueprint is

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Speaker 1: the call from the Institute of Public Affairs looking at

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Speaker 1: the challenging security environment for the country since the end

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Speaker 1: of the Second World War, dramatically underprepared for the possibility

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Speaker 1: of conflict in the Indo Pacific region. Let's have a

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Speaker 1: chat with Scott Hargraves, Executive Director of the Institute of

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Speaker 1: Public Affairs. Scott, good morning, Good morning Matthew. So what

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Speaker 1: we need a better army, a better defense force. I

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Speaker 1: suppose in general more toys for them.

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Speaker 2: Well, it certainly will. As part of a series of

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Speaker 2: papers we'll be talking about how we need to build

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Speaker 2: up our Australian defense force. But this first paper in

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Speaker 2: a series that forms the blueprint is very much on

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Speaker 2: our relationships and some key items of material. It used

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Speaker 2: to be the rule that you Australia would have ten

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Speaker 2: years to prepare for a major conflict in the region.

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Speaker 2: All the defense planners know that that's no longer true,

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Speaker 2: but we just don't seem to be taking the action

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Speaker 2: right now that we need to so that we can

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Speaker 2: defend ourselves and that's what our paper is focused on.

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Speaker 1: Apart from the long distance ORCUS project, are we doing anything?

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Speaker 2: Well, this is the thing. There are a lot of

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Speaker 2: plans being discussed, a lot of coverage of plans, but

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Speaker 2: they all seem to be for the delivery of platforms

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Speaker 2: ten years out, decades out, most famously the nuclear submarines.

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Speaker 2: What we focused on is what should be done in

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Speaker 2: the next term of government. We're trying to focus the

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Speaker 2: minds of Australians and whoever forms the next government on

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Speaker 2: measures like what is our backup for the submarines if

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Speaker 2: they don't arrive in time. So we are suggesting that

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Speaker 2: we look at the USA's B twenty one rate of

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Speaker 2: sealth bomber. We are looking at inviting the USA to

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Speaker 2: expand its Marine Corps presence in Northern Australia. And we're

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Speaker 2: also looking at or recommend strongly that we start immediately

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Speaker 2: fortifying our northern approaches and indeed the islands such as

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Speaker 2: the Cocos Island and Christmas Island at Norfolk Island in

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Speaker 2: the Pacific as part of being prepared for a conflict

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Speaker 2: in the overall region.

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Speaker 1: Do we have people to do this because at the moment,

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Speaker 1: as I understand it, we can't even crue the columns

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Speaker 1: class so as it a few years ago we couldn't.

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Speaker 1: At least has that changed at all.

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Speaker 2: We're going to need a dramatic reorientation of the way

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Speaker 2: that we recruit and retain people. We are already under

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Speaker 2: strength for the ADF as a proportion of the population.

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Speaker 2: It's actually been almost halved over the past few decades,

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Speaker 2: but we can't even meet our targets of approximately fifty

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Speaker 2: thousand people. So, as I say, we are also having

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Speaker 2: an in depth look at that. That's going to take

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Speaker 2: years to turn around, but the best time to start

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Speaker 2: is right now, Matthew. We just don't seem to have

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Speaker 2: that sense of urgency in how we make decisions in

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Speaker 2: Canberra and indeed how we fund our very important national security.

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Speaker 1: Is that the issue the funding, because that seems to

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Speaker 1: be why politicians have valied over the last well fifteen

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Speaker 1: twenty years. I guess yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think we're now at the point where the period

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Speaker 2: of relative peace and prosperity that we had following the

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Speaker 2: end of the Cold Wars has come to an end.

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Speaker 2: So to the extent we enjoyed a peace dividend. We

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Speaker 2: are now going to have to increase our spending. We're

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Speaker 2: making a lot of promises that aren't really fully realized

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Speaker 2: in the budget papers. The approximately two percent of GDP

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Speaker 2: being spent on defense is just not going to cut

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Speaker 2: the mustard. All around the globe, countries are recognizing that

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Speaker 2: they need to increase expenditure, and in this paper we're

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Speaker 2: also identifying some very specific things that neat that we

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Speaker 2: should be focused on spending that money.

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Speaker 1: On so well, such as what well one of the.

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Speaker 2: Insionives we're suggesting, as well as looking at things like

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Speaker 2: the bombers and fortifying islands. In part of this blueprint series,

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Speaker 2: it's offensive and defensive missile capabilities, not exactly like Israel's

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Speaker 2: iron dome technology, but these sort of defensive measures drones. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: we've seen in Ukraine how drone warfare is revolutionizing on

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Speaker 2: the ground conflict and Australia really needs to accelerate that

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Speaker 2: to provide mass in the battlefront. And these are things

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Speaker 2: that we should be spending money on right now, and

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Speaker 2: then in the longer term, there's a whole series of

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Speaker 2: platforms that we're going to need.

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Speaker 1: The fifty thousand you mentioned as the target for our

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Speaker 1: defense force a few minutes ago. Is that enough? You know,

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Speaker 1: you think of the northern border and even fortifying the

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Speaker 1: islands that you talked about, Cocas and all the others,

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Speaker 1: Christmas Island. It's going to take a huge manpower. Fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand isn't going to be enough, is it? If we're

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Speaker 1: talking about the mind of China for instance.

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Speaker 2: That's quite right, Matthew, No it's not enough. And it's

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Speaker 2: also time that you know, we as a nation need

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Speaker 2: to value members of the ADF even more than we do.

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Speaker 2: I think Australians do recognize what the sacrifices that our

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Speaker 2: men and women make to embark in a military career,

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Speaker 2: and we need to honor that by supporting them, by

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Speaker 2: honoring them, giving them a proper career with challenges also

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Speaker 2: even through the reserve forces, which have really been allowed

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Speaker 2: to peter out, waefully underfunded and not very attractive really

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Speaker 2: to the average Australian who is perhaps thinking about how

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Speaker 2: they can make a contribution even while maintaining a foothold

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Speaker 2: in civilian life. So we think, and again this will

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Speaker 2: be the focus for future papers in our blueprints. Here

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Speaker 2: is we are looking at extra tens of thousands for

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Speaker 2: the Australian Defense Force.

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Speaker 1: Given some of the islands in the region have undertaken

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Speaker 1: Builton Road projects with China and signed up to those arrangements,

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Speaker 1: are we able to fortify those islands against people They've

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Speaker 1: got countries, they've got a strategic allegiance to well.

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Speaker 2: We've been talking so far about the Australian the islands

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Speaker 2: over which Australia has sovereignty, but this paper also talks

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Speaker 2: about the key to relationships, and Australia has some great

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Speaker 2: relationships in the Asia Pacific. We're certainly talking here about

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Speaker 2: strengthening our relationship with Japan and indeed bringing Japan into ORCUS,

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Speaker 2: which would be a very sensible move as a technology partner,

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Speaker 2: a great energy partner as well. We need to build

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Speaker 2: relationship with India and closer to home in the Pacific.

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Speaker 2: Where As you say Belton Road has been dangled as

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Speaker 2: a carrot, we think that with our proposal is for

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Speaker 2: a Pacific Response Force, that we have the opportunity through

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Speaker 2: the ADF to establish a cooperative Pacific Response Force where

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Speaker 2: the militaries of all those regions could be used, for instance,

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Speaker 2: in natural disasters which the South Pacific is subject to

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Speaker 2: a rapid reaction force supported by Australian infrastructure and naval capabilities.

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Speaker 2: Our friends in Fiji and similar nations could become enmeshed

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Speaker 2: in a Pacific response force and that would be a

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Speaker 2: win win outcome for them and for Australia's security in

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Speaker 2: its specific backyard beyond Orkansas.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to see the political parties getting excited by

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Speaker 1: any of this, or at least not to date.

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess that's part of the reason why, as

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Speaker 2: well as presenting it to the major political parties, we

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Speaker 2: did want to publicize it because it is going to

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Speaker 2: take a change of attitude in the Australian public to

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Speaker 2: say that this is important, that it needs to be funded,

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Speaker 2: that perhaps it's time to start stop funding other wasteful

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Speaker 2: projects and actually put the money for something that is

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Speaker 2: as basic as national security, because if we want to

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Speaker 2: remain a free country, we have to be prepared to

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Speaker 2: invest in the de terrence. And remember, this is not

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Speaker 2: spending money to fighter for, it's really spending money to

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Speaker 2: avoid a war, really what we all want.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely good on your Scott, appreciate your time, Thanks Matthie,

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Speaker 1: Thank you Scott, Hargraves IPA in Executive Director on the

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Speaker 1: white paper they've put out saying Australia not prepared, not

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Speaker 1: ready to defend should a conflict break out. Institute of

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Speaker 1: Public Affairs and gee, that's concerning, isn't it. Love to

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Speaker 1: get your thoughts on that as we go through the

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Speaker 1: morning