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Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel

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Speaker 1: people of the Eura Nation. Hello and welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. I'm Wali Dhalid, just kidding,

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Hildebrand, because that's who it's the Real Story with,

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Speaker 1: although not according to pretty much everyone whoever sees me

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Speaker 1: in the street. So, hew, you're the guy from the project.

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Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, fine, whatever, Yeah, Kurgan is selfie, Yeah sure, sure, yeah.

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Speaker 1: What was your name again, Walid? Anyway, here's what's coming

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Speaker 1: up on the show. We've got the inside story into

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Speaker 1: Peter Dunton's secret property portfolio. Yes he actually owns half

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Speaker 1: of Australia, or does he. That's certainly what's being put about,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not quite sure that it's true. Also, what

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Speaker 1: is Donald Trump up to in the Ukraine? I know

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Speaker 1: we talked a bit about this yesterday. It turns out

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Speaker 1: that he might be shutting down World War three or

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Speaker 1: starting it whatever, I'm not quite sure, just so he

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Speaker 1: can get a better deal from the Ukrainian government on

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Speaker 1: this secret project has got on the side, So we'll

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Speaker 1: tell you all about that. Plus, last week we gave

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Speaker 1: you the election date. This week, we're giving you the result. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we are going to tell you what the election result

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Speaker 1: is going to be with the guy who predicted the

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump election victory when everybody else had written him off.

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Speaker 1: So all that and more coming up. Plus I'm Molly Dali.

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Speaker 1: We know the election campaign has really begun in earnest

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Speaker 1: when the two parties dirt units get up and run

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Speaker 1: in it. Little bits of paper, a little bits on research.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's been googling, combing through all the social media accounts

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Speaker 1: to find out anyone who's said something dodgy, anyone who's

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Speaker 1: you know, throwing Nazi salutes. Perhaps that seems to be

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Speaker 1: a thing these days. Not drowning, not waving, just tyle Hillary,

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Speaker 1: that's nice. Not drowning, not waving, just seek kaling. Good

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Speaker 1: name for rock band anyway. And the one that's doing

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Speaker 1: the rounds this week is that Peter Dutton has this

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Speaker 1: massive property portfolio and also that he bought shares in

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Speaker 1: the big banks just before the financial crisis. At the time,

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Speaker 1: the rod government propped up those big banks and underwrote them,

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Speaker 1: in other words, made the banks as safe as houses,

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Speaker 1: which meant that their share prices went up, and thanks

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Speaker 1: to a bit of good luck. Peter Dutton had bought

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Speaker 1: shares in the banks just a few days earlier. Now,

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Speaker 1: Peter Dutton says he's done absolutely nothing wrong. In fact,

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Speaker 1: he says, look, I could see the banks, I could

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Speaker 1: see their balance, sheit. I knew they were going to

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Speaker 1: be a good thing. And you know, whatever he's invested shrewdly,

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Speaker 1: he's made a bit of money or good I don't

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Speaker 1: think anyone's going to be able to make that stick.

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Speaker 1: But the thing that has sort of brought it back

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Speaker 1: is that Peter Dutton basically owns half of Australia. Peter

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Speaker 1: Dutton had this massive property portfolio and whether he has

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Speaker 1: it anymore as a matter of dispute, he's been accused

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Speaker 1: of still having it. I don't think he actually does.

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Speaker 1: I think he's offloaded it. But he used to have

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Speaker 1: it. It was meant to be worth something like thirty million

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Speaker 1: bucks or whatever. And it got him into trouble a

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Speaker 1: few years ago when it turned out that a trust

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Speaker 1: that he was a beneficiary of that was actually owned

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Speaker 1: and operated by his wife, owned some childcare centers that

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Speaker 1: received some government funding, and there were people saying, well,

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Speaker 1: this actually violates a section of the Constitution which says

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Speaker 1: an MP can't be the beneficiary of funds from the Commonwealth. Now.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if anyone's noticed or not, but Peter

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Speaker 1: Dutton is still an MP, he is still in Parliament.

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Speaker 1: In fact, he is the Opposition leader, and he is

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Speaker 1: arguably the favorite, well he is the favorite according to

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Speaker 1: bookies to become the next Prime minister. So clearly that

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Speaker 1: allegation didn't stick. But he has, it seems, divested himself

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Speaker 1: of all these properties. Shows he's getting serious about the

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Speaker 1: top job. He's got rid of all this stuff. So

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Speaker 1: now he's just got the family home and presumably a

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Speaker 1: shitload of money. But this is the thing, right this

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Speaker 1: this has been sort of been known and talked about,

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Speaker 1: and people have been trying to get this story up,

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Speaker 1: like I said, for years. You know that there was

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Speaker 1: even potentially constitutional impropriety about this property portfolio, and it

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Speaker 1: hasn't really done Peter Dutton any damage at all. And yet,

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Speaker 1: as the old saying about Luigi the Goat goes, you

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Speaker 1: do all this, you do all this great stuff, save

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Speaker 1: the world and your one goat, and it's all people

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Speaker 1: talk about. And this is the PM's problem. That's why

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Speaker 1: I feel sorry for Albo. He buys one house, one

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Speaker 1: cliff top mansion, and he says it's not even a mansion,

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Speaker 1: and he's renting it out, so he's helping the housing crisis.

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Speaker 1: This guy should be getting a medal. But everyone's jumping

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Speaker 1: up and down about this one house that the PM

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Speaker 1: has bought and not paying any attention to the God

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Speaker 1: knows how many houses that Peter Dutton has brought up

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Speaker 1: and flipped over the years. And labor mate and I

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Speaker 1: were talking about this and saying, you know, saying, why

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Speaker 1: is it that this has really sort of stuck in

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Speaker 1: the national imagination, and it is the thing that people

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Speaker 1: keep talking about. You talk about you know what people

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Speaker 1: you know in the street think, you talk about you

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Speaker 1: know what my mate Max the barber, what he thinks

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Speaker 1: about the Albany's government. The first thing brings up is

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Speaker 1: that beach house in Copa Gabanah. Firstly, it's not even

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Speaker 1: a beach house. It's a cliff top mansion. It's not

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Speaker 1: even a mansion. It's just a very large house on

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Speaker 1: a cliff overlooking the water. Anyway, good aim, And this

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Speaker 1: is what my very well connected bloke in the labor

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Speaker 1: party was saying, said, the problem is that thirty million

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Speaker 1: dollars or whatever it was property portfolio that Peter Dutton's

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Speaker 1: got in a family trust somewhere or whatever, or doesn't anymore.

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Speaker 1: But had you know, all these partial potential conflicts of

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Speaker 1: interest they tried to bring up that it might have

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Speaker 1: violated this all that section of the Constitution. You can't

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Speaker 1: really picture, you can't really sort of see it in

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Speaker 1: your head. It's not relatable to the average person, but

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Speaker 1: the average person does know what a beach front house

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Speaker 1: looks like. And worse still, because it's not quite a mansion,

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Speaker 1: and because it's in this sort of central coaster, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people have holiday houses, a lot of middle

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Speaker 1: class people have weekends there. It's relatable, and so it's

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Speaker 1: the sort of thing that people can look at and say,

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Speaker 1: you know what, I could almost have a house like that,

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Speaker 1: or g whiz, I'd love to have a house like that.

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Speaker 1: And maybe it's just a dream and we'll never get there,

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Speaker 1: but it's not out of it's not impossible. It's relatable,

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Speaker 1: and so as soon as something is relatable and tangible

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Speaker 1: to people, suddenly it sticks in their mind, and so

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Speaker 1: people think, hang on a minute. He's bought that beach

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Speaker 1: house while I'm struggling to hold on to my own house.

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Speaker 1: That ain't right. So all you know, the tax cuts,

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Speaker 1: the wage increases, you know, the power bill, relief, the

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Speaker 1: free childcare, the free tape, all these things the Albanezi

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Speaker 1: government has done and isn't getting any credit for. But

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Speaker 1: you buy one cliff top mansion. Suddenly the whole show's over.

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Speaker 1: And now I just want to go back to Trump

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Speaker 1: and Ukraine. And I know we talked about it last week,

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Speaker 1: but I just can't get enough at a It's Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and b If World War III does happen to

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Speaker 1: break out, it'd be pretty weird if the most groundbreaking,

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Speaker 1: insightful news podcast on the planet failed to mention it.

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Speaker 1: So what is Donald Trump doing when it comes to Ukraine?

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Speaker 1: What's he doing sitting down with Putin? They haven't actually

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Speaker 1: met yet, but the people have been meeting, and it's

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Speaker 1: just been Russia in the US. No Ukraine involved in

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Speaker 1: these negotiations. Of course, people are saying, well, hang on

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Speaker 1: a minute, how can you negotiate a piece between Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and Russia when Ukraine isn't even at the table And

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Speaker 1: we've since learned, and there's since been some really sort

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Speaker 1: of illuminating things about that negotiation process, and it's been

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Speaker 1: illuminating on huge number of levels. Firstly in terms of

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Speaker 1: the way Trump backers here in Australia have reacted to it.

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Speaker 1: There have been people who are all in on Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and they suddenly going, hang on, what's he doing?

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Speaker 1: I'll were on Ukraine side, and now he's selling them

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Speaker 1: down the river. I had a really senior, high profile

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Speaker 1: journal an incredible journo, you know, Walkley Winner, you know,

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Speaker 1: super super smart, and she says to me said, what's

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Speaker 1: he doing? What's he doing? And I said to her,

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Speaker 1: I said, what do you mean? What is he doing?

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Speaker 1: He's being Donald Trump. He's doing the exact same thing

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Speaker 1: he always does. The only difference is now he's doing

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Speaker 1: it on an issue that you disagree with. So the

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Speaker 1: only thing that has actually changed is that this time

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Speaker 1: the bomb that he's lobbing, the missile that he's firing,

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Speaker 1: is not at one of your enemies. It's someone you

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Speaker 1: think of as an ally. So it's a bit like

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Speaker 1: now you know how the left feels. But there was

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Speaker 1: this sort of genuine confusion because I think there are

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Speaker 1: people there who think that Donald Trump is the Messiah.

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Speaker 1: And as Brian's mum said in the Life of Brian,

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Speaker 1: he's not the Messiah. He's just a very naughty boy.

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Speaker 1: And yes, he goes around slapping tariffs on Mexico and

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Speaker 1: that's funny. He slaps tariffs on Canada and that's funny.

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Speaker 1: And he slaps tariffs on Australia. Hang on a minute,

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Speaker 1: what do you doing. That's out of order? And again

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Speaker 1: he goes around. He tells you, he tells Palissin or

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Speaker 1: tells Hamas that they better buddy get their act together,

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Speaker 1: or he'll rebelize them if they don't hand over all

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Speaker 1: the hostages. Or they better gether act together in Gaza,

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Speaker 1: or he'll turn the whole thing into a beachfront condo.

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Speaker 1: And you think, yeah, that's right, getting in there, being tough,

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Speaker 1: cracking down on him. And he tells Ukraine they better

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Speaker 1: get their act together and come to the table and

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Speaker 1: go Hang on a minute, right now, you're doing it

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Speaker 1: to them. But again it is just Trump being Trump,

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Speaker 1: people say, but he's not being good anymore. Trump was

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Speaker 1: never good. Trump didn't promise to make America good again,

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Speaker 1: promise to make it great again. Trump is not about

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Speaker 1: moral rectitude, and it would be pretty funny given his

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Speaker 1: background if he was. He knows he can't carry that out.

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Speaker 1: He can't say I'm purer than the Driven Star, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to restore American integrity, restore American purity. He's

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Speaker 1: not doing that. He's restoring American strength. Strength is the

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Speaker 1: only language that Donald Trump speaks and understands. And he

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Speaker 1: actually is totally open about this. He does not hide it.

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Speaker 1: He went on Fox News since the last podcast he

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Speaker 1: went on and he actually explained why he was just

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Speaker 1: cutting Ukraine out of the equation. He said, they don't

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Speaker 1: have any cards. They don't have any cards to deal,

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Speaker 1: so it didn't matter if they were in the right

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Speaker 1: or not, or if they were the victim. All that

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Speaker 1: mattered was whether or not they were in a position

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Speaker 1: of strength, if they were in a position to be

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Speaker 1: able to bargain. And Trump thought, they've got nothing. He

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Speaker 1: looks at the map. Russia's all over them like a

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Speaker 1: cheap suit. Ukraine's got one tiny speck in Russia by

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Speaker 1: way of payback, Russia's carved out half of eastern Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: And he says, well, clearly, Russia is the tough guy here.

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Speaker 1: Clearly Russia has more cards to deal with. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to deal with them, and he says it completely and

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Speaker 1: utterly openly. But there is something else that's going on

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Speaker 1: at the same time which gives an even greater layer

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Speaker 1: of sort of ultra deal making. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: where Trump is at his best, just this massive kind

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Speaker 1: of power play, and that is that it emerged after

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Speaker 1: all this came out that America is trying to get

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Speaker 1: the rights for these rare earth minerals that Ukraine has

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Speaker 1: in the grounds. And once these are obviously the stuff

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Speaker 1: that makes all this sort of super high tech stuff

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Speaker 1: that we all rely upon these days and without which

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Speaker 1: the world would come crash into ground. And there's a

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Speaker 1: gold mine figuratively underneath Ukraine and the US wants access

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Speaker 1: to it, and Ukraine, in what might be described as

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Speaker 1: famous last words, told the US, now, we're not giving

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Speaker 1: you rights to these rare earths unless you guarantee security

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Speaker 1: for Ukraine against Russia. And instead of saying oh, okay, yes,

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Speaker 1: sure of course, anything else you'd like, mister Zelenski, Trump

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Speaker 1: and America just goes straight to Russia and say, right,

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Speaker 1: we'll give you whatever you want, you can have Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: just you just name it. I mean, Ukraine's not here.

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Speaker 1: You ask for whatever you want. And Ukraine sees that happening,

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Speaker 1: shits itself. They says, oh, sorry, those rares. Yeah, sure,

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Speaker 1: here what we are. And strangely enough, that deal is

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Speaker 1: now progressing very very quickly and is probably going to

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Speaker 1: be finalized very very soon. And again, so this is

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Speaker 1: what Trump does. He says, right, you've got this thing

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Speaker 1: that I want, give it to me. Ukraine says no.

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Speaker 1: Trump goes, right, we'll wipe you off the face of

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Speaker 1: the planet. Now give it to me. Ukraine says, yes,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty simple. And so people and again listening to

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Speaker 1: someone talk about as in astorians said this about Alexander

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Speaker 1: the Great and questions about whether Alexander the Great was

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Speaker 1: actually a good guy or a bad guy. And obviously

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Speaker 1: opinions preddgers. I mean, he did kill a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: And this historian said, question whether he's good or bad

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Speaker 1: is the wrong question. He's not good or bad. He's

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Speaker 1: just an apex predator. It's like saying, is a Tyrannosaurus

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Speaker 1: rex good or bad? Is a great white shark good

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Speaker 1: or bad? It doesn't matter if it's good or bad

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Speaker 1: or not. All that matters is that it's there and

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Speaker 1: it has to be dealt with. And so this is

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Speaker 1: the same question about Donald Trump. Is he good or bad?

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. He's neither. He's just an apex predator.

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Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter whether you're a good guy or

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Speaker 1: a bad guy. All that matters is whether or not

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Speaker 1: you're in his way. Well, last week we gave you

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Speaker 1: the date of the upcoming federal election, and we thought,

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Speaker 1: how can we top that? Well, we'll give you the result.

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Speaker 1: We can just call the whole thing off, call the AACA.

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Speaker 1: No need to actually go to the polls, because our

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Speaker 1: resident guru, Tim Gleeson is going to tell us what

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Speaker 1: the result is going to be. Give we'll take you

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Speaker 1: ballpark ish. He's no ideas man, and he joins me

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Speaker 1: on the line right now, Good timmy g how are

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Speaker 1: you mate?

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Speaker 2: Good Joseph, how are you?

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Speaker 1: Very very well? Now, you correctly predicted the election of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump when plenty of people were saying that it

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Speaker 1: wasn't going to happen. And now we've got another election

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Speaker 1: a little bit closer to home. What's your read on

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Speaker 1: the situation here? Is Albow in as much trouble as

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Speaker 1: everyone seems to think he is.

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Speaker 3: No. Well, firstly, I'm taking this very seriously because I

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Speaker 3: heard on the ABC this morning Anthony Green is retiring.

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Speaker 1: Ah, this is I'm thinking.

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Speaker 3: Here I come, ABC two thousand and twenty eight, So

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Speaker 3: you're going to get my full wisdom today.

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Speaker 1: I like it. The ab Timmy g just remember where

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Speaker 1: you came from. Okay, that's right, Glad. We're launching careers

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Speaker 1: here on the podcast. But just remember who launched you

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Speaker 1: into the stratosphere. So obviously, I mean Peter Dutton came

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Speaker 1: out just a few days ago. It says I'm going

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Speaker 1: to win this, which is a weird thing for an

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Speaker 1: opposition leader to say because usually even if you think

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Speaker 1: you're going to win, you want to be playing the

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Speaker 1: underdog card. But the bookies have him his favorite. There

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Speaker 1: are more and more people now saying that the Coalition

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Speaker 1: could actually pick up the twenty or so seats it

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Speaker 1: needs to, or rather probably more like the ten to

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Speaker 1: sort of twelve, maybe that it could possibly form minority

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Speaker 1: government with what's your read of the situation.

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Speaker 3: Well, firstly, disregard the book makers, because the well in

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen a couple of days before the election, Bill

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Speaker 3: Shorten was a dollar twenty two to win the election

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Speaker 3: and Scott Morrison was four dollars fifty, which basically meant

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Speaker 3: if you put one hundred dollars on Scott Morrison you

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Speaker 3: got back four hundred and fifty and one hundred dollars

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Speaker 3: in Bill short and you're getting back one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty And it didn't work out well, especially for the guy.

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Speaker 2: Who had a million dollars on till Shorten.

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Speaker 3: But I wouldn't say anyone's across the line in this election,

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Speaker 3: and I think it's really naive to say that. I

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Speaker 3: think one way or another it's going to be a

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Speaker 3: minority government. Can't say there's currently fifteen independence There will be.

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Speaker 3: Before this there has been a nor city will be

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Speaker 3: has been for one of the better. Yeah, so there'll

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Speaker 3: be fifteen independents and I think you'd agree most, if

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Speaker 3: not all, will be re elected. So if we take

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Speaker 3: that as a starting point, fifteen and there might even

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Speaker 3: be one more in Bradfield. But let's you say fifteen, Okay,

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Speaker 3: So if you take that fifteen off the top, there's

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Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty five seats left. Is that right, Joseph, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be very hard for anyone to get

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Speaker 3: to majority government. Basically, Peter Dutton has to win nineteen

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Speaker 3: seats to get to majority government, which if that happens,

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Speaker 3: that means a Labor but has beyond collapse. That would

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Speaker 3: be you know, a monstrosity of a performance. So one

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Speaker 3: way or another, it's going to be a minority government.

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Speaker 3: It just it just depends who's going to win on

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Speaker 3: a night. And basically I say to Labor, Labor of

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Speaker 3: seventy eight seats. At the moment, the Coalition have fifty seven,

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Speaker 3: and I think the magic number for Labor is probably

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Speaker 3: sixty eight. If they start dropping below sixty eight, they're

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Speaker 3: basically in big, big trouble.

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Speaker 1: And that sixty eight number is that so that they

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Speaker 1: can stitch together enough cross bench votes without basically having

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Speaker 1: to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, sixty eight would be a net loss

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Speaker 3: of ten seeds. So if they lost sixty eight and

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Speaker 3: they say they all went to the coalition, so they

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Speaker 3: lost sixty eight, the coalition then would have sixty seven.

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Speaker 2: So Labor also then would have that moral authority that

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Speaker 2: have one.

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Speaker 3: More seat because they're not going to have their vote

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Speaker 3: will go down, the coalitions will go Oh, the coalition

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Speaker 3: will probably have a bigger two party preferred, they'll have

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Speaker 3: a swing to them. They would have won seats, so

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Speaker 3: Labor really have to win I think at least equal

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Speaker 3: to or more seats, but sixty.

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Speaker 2: Eight is probably the number.

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Speaker 3: And that's right because at sixty eight, I think Labour'd

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Speaker 3: be confident of getting enough independence in the Greens to

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Speaker 3: form government. You take four Greens presuming they get re

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Speaker 3: elected and Wilkie as a starting point, you're at seventy

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Speaker 3: three and seeing you need seventy six, you're basically almost there.

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Speaker 1: Probably get a couple of Teals as well. You might

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Speaker 1: get Rebecca Sharky Helen Haynes.

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Speaker 3: And if you get those five, there's ten independence left

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Speaker 3: after you get to seventy three, so you'd need three

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Speaker 3: out of ten of the remaining ten, so you'd be

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Speaker 3: confident you.

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Speaker 2: Could do that.

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Speaker 3: Whatever it took to get three across the line, you'd

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Speaker 3: be pretty confident to do that. But once it starts

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Speaker 3: getting below sixty eight, it becomes a lot more difficult,

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Speaker 3: and even the idea that you're publicly saying that you've

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Speaker 3: won less seats than the opposition, who have got a

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Speaker 3: bigger vote than you had to swing to you to them, sorry,

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Speaker 3: but then it even makes it harder just numerically to

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Speaker 3: find that coalition to get them together, particularly when most

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Speaker 3: of those independents you'd be relying on are coming from

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Speaker 3: seats that are traditionally liberal or National Party seats.

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Speaker 1: And wouldn't the governor general. The Governor General would ask

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Speaker 1: the person with the party with the most seats to

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Speaker 1: form to try to form government. That's how the conventionally

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Speaker 1: it would operate, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: On the night Labor has to all liberal, whoever has

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Speaker 3: around seventy seats, has to be really present a message

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Speaker 3: that they're really confident forming government. This is one of

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Speaker 3: mistakes some and al Gore made this mistake back in

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Speaker 3: well was it two thousand, where it did concede and

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Speaker 3: then took the concession back.

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Speaker 2: So I say, if Labor, it's.

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Speaker 1: Not a hallmark of a confident victor, is it?

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Speaker 3: And then you're just in a position where even if

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Speaker 3: you're you're really in a tough position. So I'd say,

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Speaker 3: if Labor think that one sixty eight or sixty nine,

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Speaker 3: they should really announce they think they're confident of getting

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Speaker 3: into the loads to mid seventies and with the support

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Speaker 3: of the Greens, and so we're confident we can form government.

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Speaker 3: They should be saying that on the night to sort

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Speaker 3: of put a flag in the ground.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, gotcha. And what are the seats to watch? I

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Speaker 1: mean you mentioned four Greens potentially in the lower House,

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Speaker 1: but three of those Green seats in Brisbane, I mean

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Speaker 1: a couple of those might go Labour's way. Is that

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Speaker 1: ridiculously optimistic or it's.

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Speaker 2: Not impossible, But I think it'll be more difficult than

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Speaker 2: you think because Griffith has got a really high profile

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Speaker 2: Green and apparently they're running a really good campaign. The

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Speaker 2: Greens Brisbane's the same, so they on paper it looks possible.

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Speaker 2: It may be difficult, But if Labour could snatch one

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Speaker 2: of those seats in Queensland and Fouler back in Western Sydney,

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Speaker 2: it puts them obviously in a lot better position. So

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Speaker 2: then they could theoretically there's one or more two seats

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Speaker 2: to the coalition and still be in with a fight.

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Speaker 2: But I'd say the seats to look if you give

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Speaker 2: a way seats at the top end and I don't

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Speaker 2: want to run off seats and kill off political Chris.

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Speaker 2: But if you give away seats.

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Speaker 3: Really at the top end where Labor are struggling, and

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Speaker 3: there's probably about ten Gilmore Menzies Asten after the by election,

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Speaker 3: which will probably just flip back. There's a new seat

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Speaker 3: in Wa called Bullwinkle, which although notionally Labor, it's set

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Speaker 3: on a high base from last election, so you presume

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Speaker 3: that may swing immediately to the Coalition McEwan the v

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Speaker 3: it's been coming down for some time every election in Victoria.

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Speaker 3: And then you've got seats like Chisholm, Patterson Lengari in

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Speaker 3: the territory. Those seats you think they're the seats under

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Speaker 3: real pressure, you'd almost and that's sort of nine or ten.

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Speaker 3: Now you can lose all of them theoretically and.

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Speaker 2: Still hold on. So the seats you'd really want to

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Speaker 2: look at those.

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Speaker 3: It is a seat like Robertson on the central coast

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Speaker 3: of New South Wales where Labor have got a first

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Speaker 3: term MP, doctor Gordon Reid, who's a fantastic candidate. So

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Speaker 3: if Labor were to lose him, or say Andrew Charlton

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Speaker 3: in Paramatta, the same first term.

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Speaker 1: Don't even say Charlton goes, we're all doomed.

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Speaker 3: Or say even in the hunta where damn Rickyicelli, who's

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Speaker 3: the if he were to lose. If Labor of the

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Speaker 3: losing those types of seats, they're in real, real trouble.

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Speaker 1: And of course Paramatta is not just Paramatta is the

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Speaker 1: sort of the demographic center of Sydney. It is ulti Suburbia.

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Speaker 1: Used to be solidly working class labor heartland. It's since

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Speaker 1: become more aspirational. It flips between labor and.

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Speaker 2: The basically a city in itself.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, and it's got a star can and

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Speaker 1: like Andrew Charlton is one of Labour's standout candidates. If

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Speaker 1: he can't hold a seat like Paramatta, I suppose I'm

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Speaker 1: saying as goes, Paramatta goes the country.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: We don't hold paramatter, talk about a bell weather. We're

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Speaker 3: not winning government or holding onto government.

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Speaker 2: And I love the way I just said wheat there

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Speaker 2: like I am aren't.

430
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 1: Likewise, I'm a completely impartial, independent, fair and balanced journalist.

431
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: Labor just have to hold paramatter. You know, if you're

432
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: losing paramatter, there's a fair chance that seats like where

433
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 2: Aer Dunky and even seats on the central coast like

434
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 2: dough Bell. If you're losing those, there's a probably a

435
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: fair likelihood of Petagarton's one majority government.

436
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: And again some people are saying that seats like where

437
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: Ower Goth Whitlam's old seat quintessentially western Sydney. Some people

438
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: are saying that could be within striking distance for the coalition.

439
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 1: Is that a real fear do you reckon?

440
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 2: There is?

441
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: But some of those seats occasionally drop from the sky,

442
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 3: one or two of those and you can still win government.

443
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 3: So not surprising, but it on its own, it wouldn't

444
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: be a death knell, but it felt if it fell

445
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 3: and those others which I just previously mentioned fell, yeah.

446
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 2: The government be in real trouble.

447
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: And a couple you mentioned including Paramatta and Wherrerower as

448
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: well as of course those real sort of heartland seats

449
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: in western Southwestern City like blacks Land by Jason Clare's seat,

450
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: Tony Burke's seat of Watson and of course Chris Bowen's

451
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: seat as well. They are getting the Muslim vote ticket

452
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: challenging them.

453
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: So the Muslim vote make it clear they're all fine.

454
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: Joseph fine, an incredibly dramatic setup.

455
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 2: They're all fine.

456
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 3: If Label were to I don't know what's happened in

457
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 3: the next month, but they're all fine.

458
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 2: I mean, if the laboring they will be fine.

459
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: I think they are also fielding candidates in Wherrerower and

460
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: Paramatta though, which have smaller margins, and directing in those seats.

461
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: It could have a difference.

462
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think though sometimes that it's overstated and it's

463
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: insulting that because there's a candidate from assertion certain race

464
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 3: or religion, that everybody in that electorate from that race

465
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: or that religion is automatic going.

466
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 2: To vote for that candidate. So I think we've seen

467
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: that over and over again. That's not the case. And

468
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 2: I think if we if Labor were to lose.

469
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 3: Some of those other seats, it's not just because of

470
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: individual third party candidates, it's basically losing to the Liberal Party.

471
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: What about seats have been talked that sort of concerns

472
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: about the future of coal mining and that sort of

473
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 1: stuff could make seats further up towards Newcastle. Vulnerable seats

474
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: like Shortland for example. Do you see much in that.

475
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Labor lucky, the good candidates in that They've got

476
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 3: really good candidates on a whole across the Hunter. And

477
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: I'm not having a dig here, but the Liberals aren't selecting.

478
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 3: You know, I'm not saying they're solid candidates, but let's

479
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 3: just say solid at the lower end of solid. So Labor,

480
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 3: And there's a long history Labour's been losing the Hunter.

481
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 2: I think for twenty five years.

482
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 3: It's always like since I was first voting, it's always

483
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 3: and they manage to win the hundred and buy in large.

484
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 2: They have really good candidates and do good job in

485
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: the Hunter.

486
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: So once again, if Labor loses the Hunter, They've lots

487
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 3: a lot of things before that.

488
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 2: I'm pretty confident Labor will hold the Hunter.

489
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: Good good And the other weird thing about the election

490
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: result last time around in twenty twenty two was this

491
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 1: big WA wave that came through and quite frankly, the

492
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: party would have been in a lot of trouble had

493
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: that not happened. Do you think they're going to hold

494
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: onto seats like you know, Tanging in WA and those

495
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: those seats that were sort of built on the huge

496
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: popularity of Mark McGowan.

497
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 3: I think Tanging is a tough one that's going to

498
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 3: be difficult to hold, but that's one where Labour could

499
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: lose and sill form government. That'd be in that tent

500
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 3: that eight to ten. And the new seat of Bullwinkle,

501
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 3: which I think is about four percent notionally labor. That's

502
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 3: also one of those ones where on the map and

503
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 3: on the numbers, this made up seat is a Labor seat,

504
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: but it may be difficult to hold. But Labor could

505
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 3: lose those two seats and still or government.

506
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 1: What about sort of you know, the odd sort of surprise.

507
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: Do you think there's any chance they could, for example,

508
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 1: pick up stirt in South Australia.

509
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 2: We've been winning stir.

510
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 3: We've been winning sir for thirty years and haven't win honestly,

511
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: no matter how close it cares, like where can we say,

512
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 3: it just doesn't happen for some reason, almost like the

513
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 3: electric just toys with you, you know, almost.

514
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: Like yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean last I went from

515
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: like seven percent too point five of a percent. So

516
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: they go right up to the edge of the cliff

517
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: and then just stop.

518
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 3: You're giving a dog a little treat, You're wave it

519
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 3: in front of its mouth, but then you throw it

520
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 3: in the bin.

521
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: It's just we're always winning stir and never happens. So

522
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: I shouldn't say that they's fantastic, can they of course?

523
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: But it wonderfully last time round.

524
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 3: Also, the coalition have eight seats they have to defend

525
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 3: under one and a half percent given to one point

526
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: seven percent. So the coalition I don't think they're going

527
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 3: to lose many of those seats, if any, but they

528
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 3: do have to spend a lot of resources, including the

529
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 3: opposition leader. He'll be fine, but they have to spend

530
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 3: a lot of resources on the bottom end of their seats,

531
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 3: so there is you know, it's not all one way traffic.

532
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, it it just sucks up.

533
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: They're just going to pick off seats left, right and

534
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 3: center without doing them things themselves.

535
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: So it's reports of the Albaneze government's death been have

536
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: been greatly exaggerated.

537
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: Exaggerated. Yeah, like that camper who went missing or the bushwalker. Yeah,

538
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: that's greatly exaggerated. They found it.

539
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 3: I will say Victoria, my home state, that's basically where

540
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: the election is going to be cited. Seats haven't changed

541
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 3: hands in Victoria in the last twenty five years. I

542
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 3: think less than a handful of seats have changed hands.

543
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 3: I mean Wales, you lose six or seven in a

544
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: big election in the one time.

545
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 2: So but at this.

546
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: I think Labor holds four seats in Victoria under four percent.

547
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: There's another six between about five and eight percent, and

548
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: that's where it's going to come down to if Peter

549
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 3: Dutton and the Liberal Party can pick off some of

550
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 3: those seats they haven't been able.

551
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: To pick up for twenty five years.

552
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 3: Labor votes in Victoria, I think under Bill short was

553
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 3: fifty four percent two party preferred. It was fifty three

554
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: percent last election.

555
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: That's a lot of fat that could get.

556
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, but what has been a sort of under the

557
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 3: radar no one's talked about in all of those seats.

558
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: Labour's primary vote went down at the last election by

559
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 3: at least two or three percent in some seats like

560
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: I think it was Hawk and don't hold me to that,

561
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,959
Speaker 3: but went down between seven and ten percent because it

562
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 3: was in the middle of the pandemic, when Victoria was

563
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 3: in lockdown or just on end of that. There was

564
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 3: a lot of venting at that electric So you look

565
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 3: at those numbers, there's no real fat, even though there's

566
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 3: no due st up fat in those Victorian numbers.

567
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 1: So Labour's already done so badly that it can't really

568
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 1: do that much worse.

569
00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, some of them have gone down the last two

570
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 3: elections saying but yeah, the true believers that might be

571
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 3: a true believer.

572
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: Number some of those and gotcha.

573
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 3: I think what would be a red flag for the

574
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 3: Liberal Party is a couple of weeks ago there was

575
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 3: a state by election in Werriby, the retiring Treasurer Tim

576
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 3: Pallas ended up. The swing was ten percent, which is

577
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: basically a by election swing. And if there ever was

578
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 3: a message or a chance to get a baseball bat

579
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 3: and take it to a state government who've got a

580
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 3: huge majority, that was the opportunity. And day Labour's first

581
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,959
Speaker 3: preference vote went down by about fifteen percent. The Liberal

582
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 3: preference for first preferent vote didn't.

583
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 2: Rise at all. And of that, yeah, it went to

584
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: other parties and in the end, not enough people who

585
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: voted for a minor party or for the Greens or

586
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: an independent couldn't bring themselves to preference a Liberal Party

587
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 2: over the Labor Party. So that's what it's going to

588
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 2: come down to.

589
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 3: I think is Peter Dunton to attract enough independence will

590
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,719
Speaker 3: preference him before they will the Labor party.

591
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: There you go. So you heard it here first around

592
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: sixty eight seats, you reckon it's the magic number. Anything

593
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 1: less than that? Bye bye albow. It's been nice knowing you.

594
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: And do you reckon they can get it above that

595
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: sixty eight number? Or do you reckon?

596
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: Yeah? I don't think that's setting stone.

597
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 3: I think there's if flavor get a seven in front

598
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 3: of it, Labor, that's a miracle a home.

599
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: But there is a way.

600
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 3: Because we're sitting here now just riding off ten seats

601
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 3: like those can they have no chure? There's a good

602
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 3: chance Labor, you can get a seven in front of

603
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 3: it if well, obviously, if you just told two or

604
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 3: three of those seats. And most people I spoke to,

605
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 3: both based on the liberal side and the labor side,

606
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: they're not confident either of winning a great amount of

607
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: seats or winning forming majority governments, so of course it's

608
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 3: up in the air.

609
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: There you go, Well, timmyg election analyst, extraordinary political guru,

610
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: all round ideas man, Thank you so much for joining

611
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: us on the real story.

612
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 2: That's all right. I remember sixty eight, Joseph, that's a low.

613
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 3: So if you're sixty eight and as stays at sixty

614
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,479
Speaker 3: eight or above. I see how Sydney Fan is still

615
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: in a launch, which is good for everybody.

616
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: Amen, And that is all we have time for this week.

617
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your company. If you'd like

618
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 1: to get in touch with us, don't bother going to

619
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: my Instagram accounts. It has been hacked by someone I

620
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 1: don't even know who by because I can't get into

621
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: it to see you might want to send them a

622
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: message and say, hey, give Joey's Instagram account back, but

623
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: I don't really care, don't really don't really know if

624
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: you can have it. You can, however, send me an

625
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: email at the Real Story at Nova podcast dot com

626
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,320
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627
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: You can rate us five stars. You can catch me

628
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: every Monday and Saturday in the various News Corp papers.

629
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: I think I've write for much all of them. And

630
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: in the meantime, we'll see you next week. Mm hm