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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Summer series, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Vanter, specialists in compliance led growth. I'm Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Aylmer, Good morning Michael, and good.

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Speaker 1: Morning Adam Lane.

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Speaker 3: Good morning Michael.

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Speaker 1: Now, yesterday was a disappointment. Everyone was too polite, there

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Speaker 1: was no excitement. Everyone tried to concede. Ah, it was

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Speaker 1: a post Christmas year. Oh God, everyone tried to concede victory.

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Speaker 3: It won't last.

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Speaker 1: In the last moments of the podcast. That is not

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Speaker 1: the case today. Today we are out for a win.

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Speaker 1: We are each going to put forward a big story,

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Speaker 1: the big economic story of the last year. We've each

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Speaker 1: picked a good one.

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Speaker 2: I reckon because of Michael's efforts in the second half

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four giving its economic stories, which is

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Speaker 2: very proud of in the weekend edition. I think Michael,

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Speaker 2: given he has most experience in clearly he's in this one. Michael,

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Speaker 2: You've got to go first. Michael. It better be good.

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Speaker 1: It will be good because, as you say, I have been.

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Speaker 1: I have basically been the designated economists for Fear and Greed,

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Speaker 1: which is a what do you call me again?

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Speaker 3: Go on?

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Speaker 1: Because There has been one story that everybody has been

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Speaker 1: talking about this year in terms of the economy, and

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Speaker 1: that has been inflation. Sticky, stubborn inflation that is not

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Speaker 1: coming down anywhere near as quickly as we would have liked.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank has said that they want to see

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Speaker 1: underlying inflation sustainably within that two to three percent target band. Sustainably.

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Speaker 1: It's not even there yet right Price pressures are still persisting,

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Speaker 1: and that means that despite weak economic growth, despite government

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Speaker 1: spending being the only thing that's ensuring that we're not

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Speaker 1: in recession right now, the Reserve Bank is going to

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Speaker 1: hold fire on interest rate cuts. Economists and markets don't

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Speaker 1: know when it's going to happen, maybe as soon as February,

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Speaker 1: more likely middle.

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Speaker 3: Of the year.

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Speaker 1: But this year, this twenty twenty four has been defined

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Speaker 1: by inflation and the single minded focus of the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank to ignore everything else, to ignore what everyone else

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Speaker 1: around the world, all the central banks around the world

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Speaker 1: that have been slashing rates like that's going out of fashion.

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Speaker 1: They are focused solely on getting inflation back under control.

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Speaker 1: It has been the big economic story of twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by the fear and greet economist Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: Can I say that with any credibility? You know what

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Speaker 1: I can. I'm here to.

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Speaker 3: Wear passion and fire, Adam.

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Speaker 2: Yes, good luck beating that one all right.

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Speaker 3: Underpinning that inflation, Michael, is something very very important, deeply

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Speaker 3: personal and important, and that is the employment market. Australia's

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Speaker 3: unemployment is three point nine percent, staggering. This historic low, Michael,

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Speaker 3: historic low has three very important aspects to mention. Firstly,

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Speaker 3: everyone who wants a job has a reasonable chance of getting.

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Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, hold, on point of order, it's

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Speaker 2: not a historic low three point nine percent. We've had

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Speaker 2: unemployment lower than that three point eight There you go.

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Speaker 1: Maybe historically significant that yeah.

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Speaker 3: Let's not quibble over pot one quibble, Yeah, fair enough. Firstly,

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Speaker 3: everyone who wants a job has a reasonable chance of

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Speaker 3: getting one, and that means so much to our personal

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Speaker 3: well being. Our lives are better when we can be productive,

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Speaker 3: part of a team and have healthy routines. The second

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Speaker 3: factor is that our economy is so much better off

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Speaker 3: when we are working as a nation. Private spending is

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Speaker 3: higher and government spending on unemployment benefits can be lower.

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Speaker 3: The third, and this very important factor is the reflection

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Speaker 3: of our need for employment change. Specific industries and sectors,

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Speaker 3: notably information technology and banking, have experienced a slowdown. We've

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Speaker 3: seen that in lower job ads, indicating uneven growth throughout

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Speaker 3: the economy, there is change. Amongst this massive number, media

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Speaker 3: alone is experiencing structural change while we are all navigating

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Speaker 3: how to compete with increasingly global economy, and amongst that

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Speaker 3: that unemployment is three point nine percent is staggering.

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Speaker 1: Sean just before we jump in, if I am Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed's new economist, I reckon Adam is Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed's answer to Tony Robbins. Because every story awaken the

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Speaker 1: Giant has a motivational element to us. Does it feel

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Speaker 1: like you are just like jobs are important. It's good

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Speaker 1: for your well being. Get out there, give it your productivity.

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Speaker 3: Vote for me.

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Speaker 1: Yes, you're either a motivational speaker or you are a

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Speaker 1: politician in training. I love it. It brings quite an

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Speaker 1: inspirational edge to the competition. I'm still going to destroy

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Speaker 1: you within.

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Speaker 3: Fla boring inflation.

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Speaker 2: Please look my big economic story of the year. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think inflation and rates has been the headline story.

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Speaker 2: The underlying story. It's almost let the sleep story that

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Speaker 2: we do on a weekend, which no one's really given

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Speaker 2: enough attention. It has had attention, but it's all about

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Speaker 2: government spending. You mentioned it, Michael. Without it, we would

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Speaker 2: be in a recession. At the end of the year,

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Speaker 2: we found out that this financial year we're heading for

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Speaker 2: a massive deficit. Some of the new spending or other

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Speaker 2: investments which have cost the budget include increased childcare subsidies,

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Speaker 2: increased rent assistance, higher welfare payments, cancelation of student debt.

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Speaker 2: Remember that one. Money for the Clean Energy Finance Court,

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Speaker 2: money for the National Reconstruction Fund and money for the

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Speaker 2: Snowy Hydro, money for Housing Australia Fund, money for the

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Speaker 2: North Australian Infrastructure Fund, big pay rises for groups including

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Speaker 2: aged care workers. There's been those three hundred dollars energy rebates,

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Speaker 2: and the biggest of all, the Stage three tax cuts,

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Speaker 2: rejigged to ensure more people received tax cuts rather than

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Speaker 2: just the middle class. Without actually having a value on

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Speaker 2: whether these things were good or bad, you cannot debate

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Speaker 2: that this has added huge stimulus to the economy, which

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Speaker 2: is why the Reserve Bank accept to keep interest rates high,

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Speaker 2: which is why we've kept employment rates where they are.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know that I'm winning this particular category,

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Speaker 2: but government spending really has been the economic driver of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: And Sean, I loved the fact that I heard, really

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Speaker 1: for the first time the term was it off budget spending? Oh?

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Speaker 2: Yes as well, So a bunch of those things I

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Speaker 2: talked about were off budget. They're kind of like, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're not putting it on the budget, but we're still

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Speaker 2: going to spend the money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't really count kind of anyway. Look, big,

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Speaker 1: big stories I do, I mean all jokes aside, I

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Speaker 1: do win this one. I mean I went into that

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Speaker 1: one knowing that I had that in the bag because

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Speaker 1: inflation and interest rates it is the economic story of

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Speaker 1: the year, possibly of the decade. And really those other

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Speaker 1: stories they are vitally important, but they do just feed

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Speaker 1: into my overarching dominant like the alpha story.

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Speaker 2: So the FIP side to that, how many moves and

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Speaker 2: interest rates did we have this year?

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Speaker 3: Okay?

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Speaker 2: Fine? Zero?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Fine? Inflation did it? Actually? I mean, actually inflation's be

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Speaker 2: but what it went from beginning of the year five

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Speaker 2: point something to three point something? Just putting it out

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Speaker 2: you win, you win, Michael, but just pointing it out.

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Speaker 1: I love how you've brought the fire here. There's no

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Speaker 1: concessions here like it is. Just I'm gonna going to

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Speaker 1: point out why I should have won anyway. And Adam

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Speaker 1: inspired us all to go and get a can't get

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Speaker 1: another job as well as yeah as part or a

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Speaker 1: second way or a third Yeah, more jobs for all.

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Speaker 1: All right, there we go. Thank you very much, Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thanks Michael, Thank you very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you hit follow on. The podcast is the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Green Summer Series, brought to you by Vanter.

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Speaker 1: advanta dot com. Slash Fear and Greed. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and this is the Fear and Greed Summer Series