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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The federal government outlines lower deficits in coming years in

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Speaker 1: its midyear budget review, but does little to improve the

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Speaker 1: fiscal outlook. The first funerals for the victims of the

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Speaker 1: Bondai Beach massacre are held, and Penfold's owner, Treasury Wine

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Speaker 1: Estates admits near defeat in the US and China. Plus

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Speaker 1: the competition regulator sues Hello Fresh, and Tesla's share price

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Speaker 1: hits a new high on the back of Robotaxis. It

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Speaker 1: is Thursday, the eighteenth of December twenty twenty five. Are

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael,

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Speaker 1: Seawan The main story this morning. The federal government has

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Speaker 1: forecast higher inflation and slower economic growth in its mid

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Speaker 1: year budget update, but also a lower than forecast deficit

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Speaker 1: thanks to a higher tax take, a surge in taxes

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Speaker 1: on income companies and superannuation accounts, plus some longer term

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Speaker 1: speed ending restraint has improved the federal budget and reduced

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Speaker 1: government debt by almost thirty billion dollars. That's right.

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Speaker 2: The twenty twenty five twenty six a midyear budget update

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Speaker 2: released yesterday by Treasurer Jim Charmers and Finance Minister Katie

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Speaker 2: Gallagher shows this year's deficit will be five point three

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Speaker 2: billion dollars, lower than they expected when the budget was

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Speaker 2: originally released. That's thanks to a jump in income tax,

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Speaker 2: company tax and superannuation tax, reflecting a stronger economy and

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Speaker 2: solid gains and share markets over the next three years,

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Speaker 2: Treasury is forecasting cumulative deficits of about one hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty three billion dollars. Then we thought they were going

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Speaker 2: to be one hundred and fifty two billion dollars. So

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Speaker 2: you know, one hundred and fifty two hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: three nine billion dollars. It's better. Each deficit is slightly

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Speaker 2: smaller than previously expected. However, the governor has downgraded the

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Speaker 2: tobacco excis take by twenty five percent. This year alone,

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Speaker 2: tobacco excis is expected to collect to five point five

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Speaker 2: billion dollars, the smallest tax take on cigarettes in twenty years.

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Speaker 2: The government's also forecasting lower debt levels by the end

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Speaker 2: of this financial year, from the previously expected one trillion

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Speaker 2: dollars to about nine hundred and ninety billion dollars. Good

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Speaker 2: news there, Charmers and Galligher called it the most responsible

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Speaker 2: midyear update on record.

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Speaker 1: Much of the talk before my EFO, as much as

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Speaker 1: people were gossiping, I suppose about my EFO, it was

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Speaker 1: about how much the federal government is contributing to the economy.

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Speaker 1: The critics say it's spending too much. But government spending

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Speaker 1: is slightly lower than had been forecast at twenty six

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Speaker 1: point nine percent of GDP.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so it is better. But apart from the pandemic,

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Speaker 2: it is the highest share of the economy since nineteen

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Speaker 2: eighty six eighty seven, and it's forecast to stay at

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Speaker 2: this sort of level for much of the decade. That

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Speaker 2: suggests that it's not doing a very good job. To

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Speaker 2: shift out of propping up the economy. There are savings

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Speaker 2: from fuel tax credit systems, the government's home battery programs

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Speaker 2: that savings. There also this cuts to travel, cuts to

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Speaker 2: the use of consultants in cuts to payments out of

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Speaker 2: the Housing Australian Future Fund. However, there's new spending going

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Speaker 2: cause Mountain as a copper smelter, whaleless seal works, revamped

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Speaker 2: superannuation changes targeting low income earners. There's also money for

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Speaker 2: SIRO non government schools and support for cares, and.

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Speaker 1: What about the economic growth forecasters quickly we'll.

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Speaker 2: Treasury downgraded expectations for growth next financial year, though unchanged

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Speaker 2: this financial year sharply lift inflation. That's kind of the

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Speaker 2: big one there. Unemployment's been revised upward from four point

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent to four and a half percent in

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Speaker 2: the next couple of years. No change to the government's

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Speaker 2: forecast for net overseas migration. All in all, certainly didn't

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Speaker 2: knock it out of the park. Probably a fairly set

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Speaker 2: of numbers that we probably expected. Not much fiscal repair.

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Speaker 1: Though, okay, and not much on the EVS as we

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Speaker 1: were inspecting to.

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Speaker 2: So so maybe you and I have to duck out

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Speaker 2: and buy an EV Mike.

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Speaker 1: There is still time, as we discussed earlier in the week, Sean, Okay.

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Speaker 1: So there's quite a bit in all of that, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: And overall relatively positive outlook.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean it's so solid. Well, I mean,

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Speaker 2: the disappointing thing about the government is it not doing

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Speaker 2: any fiscal repair. When you've got twenty seven percent government

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Speaker 2: spending twenty sevenercent of GDP over the next four or

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Speaker 2: five six years, that's too high. At some point you

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Speaker 2: have to rein it in and that's probably the disappointment.

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Speaker 1: All right, Okay, Now, the first funerals yesterday Sean were

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Speaker 1: held for the Bondai Beach massacre victims. It was a

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Speaker 1: very very emotional day in which former Treasurer Josh Friedenberg

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Speaker 1: said Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi should accept personal responsibility for

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Speaker 1: the killings and he called for a Royal commission into

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Speaker 1: anti Semitism.

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Speaker 2: Yes a very tough day for many people. Six funerals

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Speaker 2: were held. Rabbi Eli Schlanger was remembered as a man

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Speaker 2: of endless self sacrificed. Families that the murdered were being

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Speaker 2: allowed to visit the site and the area around Bondi

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Speaker 2: Beach is expected to reopen today. Freedenberg in Bondi appeared

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Speaker 2: angry and about what had happened and claimed that the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister had allowed Australia to be radicalized on his watch.

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Speaker 2: He went on to say it is time for him

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Speaker 2: to accept personal responsibility for the death of fifteen innocent people,

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Speaker 2: including a ten year old child. Freedenberg also called for

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Speaker 2: a royal commission into the massacre. Senior members of the

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Speaker 2: Federal government yesterday agreed that more needed to be done

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Speaker 2: to combat anti Semitism, as did New South Wales state

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Speaker 2: Premier Chris Mins. Also yesterday, the younger suspected shooter, Navid Akram,

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Speaker 2: awoke from a kama. He was hit with fifty nine charges,

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Speaker 2: including fifteen counts of murder and one count to commit

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Speaker 2: a terrorist act. Akram was also charged with forty counts

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Speaker 2: of cause wounding to person with intent to murder, one

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Speaker 2: count of discharging firearm intending to cause grievous bodily harm,

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Speaker 2: one count of cause public display of prohibited terrorist organization symbol,

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Speaker 2: and one count of placing an explosive in or near

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Speaker 2: a building with intent to cause harm.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll take a quick break back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Shawn Treasury

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Speaker 1: Wine Estates will start a cost reduction program and rain

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Speaker 1: in its growth in China and the United States, which

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Speaker 1: are two of its biggest markets, after a sharper than

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Speaker 1: expected slow down in global wine demand.

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Speaker 2: OUCH this must hurt shareholders the penfolds own It said

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Speaker 2: it expected first half twenty twenty six earnings to be

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Speaker 2: about thirty percent below consensus expectations. Chief executive Sam fisher

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Speaker 2: Well commenced a cost reduction program to slave by one

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars a year. The United States. Earnings in

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Speaker 2: particular were below what was expected. In fact, they were

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Speaker 2: down by over fifty percent. Now. Earlier in the month

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Speaker 2: of the company announced that it would write down at least

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Speaker 2: eight hundred and sixty seven million dollars from the value

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Speaker 2: of its North American business. Treasury said it will take

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Speaker 2: deliberate strategic action to pretend brand to protect brand equity.

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Speaker 2: It'll cut shipments of seven hundred cases of wine across

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Speaker 2: China and the US in the big destabilized prices. After

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Speaker 2: yesterday's nine percent share price tumble, the stock is off

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Speaker 2: fifty six percent so far this year and Treasury looks

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Speaker 2: like winning the unwanted title of worst performing ASEX two

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Speaker 2: hundred company for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: That's extraordinary. And cutting that amount of wine being exported

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Speaker 1: seven hundred thousand cases across China and the US, I mean,

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Speaker 1: what do they do with that? Does it kind of

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Speaker 1: just sit there now and wait or does it enter

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Speaker 1: the Australian market or go to new markets?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean some will sit and wait and you

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Speaker 2: know aged Penfolds wine ain't bad, but some will definitely

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Speaker 2: flow to new markets. The demand just isn't there like

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Speaker 2: demand has really. Global demand for wine has fallen and

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Speaker 2: pen Folds is feeling the pain.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, the rest of the AX, where do we

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Speaker 1: finish up? Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: As in PAX two hundred close slightly lower to eight thousand,

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Speaker 2: five hundred and eighty five points. Ten of the eleven

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Speaker 2: sectors were lower, led by the energy stocks of note.

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Speaker 2: Grain Court share price tumbled fifteen percent after it said

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Speaker 2: it will sell its interest in Grains Connect Canada. It

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Speaker 2: marks an exit from the Canadian bolk grain handling market

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Speaker 2: after a period of pretty week performance.

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Speaker 1: Now, the competition regulator is suing home meal delivery company

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Speaker 1: Hello Fresh in federal court for allegedly misleading more than

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand consumers over subscriptions.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has launched proceedings against

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Speaker 2: grocery delivery E Services Australia Proprietary Limited, which is the

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Speaker 2: proper name for Holofresh, and a group called U Foods

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Speaker 2: Proprietary Limited. They're both owned by the German based meal

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Speaker 2: kit company. The atrible C said It started an investigation

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Speaker 2: into Holofresh and New Foods in October last year after

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Speaker 2: receiving numerous consumer complaints. The regulator's alleged that Hello Fresh

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Speaker 2: and U Foods breached the consumer laws by advertising that

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Speaker 2: new customers could easily cancel subscriptions before a specified cutoff time,

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Speaker 2: but over one hundred and one thousand consumers which charged

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Speaker 2: the first order despite canceling their subscription for the cutoff.

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Speaker 2: That's one hundred and one thousand consumers who could be

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Speaker 2: up for a refund. Consumer and fair trading issues in

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Speaker 2: the digital economy and in the supermarket retail sectors are

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Speaker 2: among the HBC's enforcement priorities this year. Hello Fresh fits

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Speaker 2: into both.

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Speaker 1: White Fox Boutique, the family run past Paally Pearl Empire,

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Speaker 1: the owner of Robin's Kitchen and House, and Bob Jayne

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Speaker 1: Corporation are on a list of twelve large Australian companies

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Speaker 1: that have been hit with infringement notices from the corporate

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Speaker 1: regulator for failing to lodge financial reports on time.

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Speaker 2: There are several fashion companies in the Australia and Securities

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Speaker 2: Investments Commissions that name and shame file for private businesses

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Speaker 2: skirting their reporting obligations. Now. Some have subsequently lodged results

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Speaker 2: include Luctually Jeweler, Paspali, Paspali Pasparali, Michael past Paley.

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Speaker 1: Past Paley. I've spent the last day or so watching

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Speaker 1: a series of videos about it because it's just fascinating

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Speaker 1: the history of pearling in Australia and they are kind

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Speaker 1: of the original. It's just a fascinating business. And I

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Speaker 1: went down one of those rabbit holes well as we

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Speaker 1: often do when we're talking about these stories.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so Paspally has lodged their accounts so just late. Now,

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Speaker 2: the youngest son of retail billionaire Solomon Lui, Steven appeared

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Speaker 2: for his company Global Retail Brands that owns Robin's Kitchen

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Speaker 2: and House. I finally had a lodge financial statement. Doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean there's any corporate wrongdoing or taxivation. They're just late, basically.

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Speaker 2: Some companies have been fined, including McCain Foods, which have

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Speaker 2: turned over more than one point two billion dollars. The

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Speaker 2: Frozen Vegetable company previously avoided lodging its profits because of

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Speaker 2: grandfathering provisions for large companies that existed before the Corporations

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Speaker 2: Act was changed. It's kind of got caught up in

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Speaker 2: that one. At the end of the day, however, if

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Speaker 2: you are a private company, you have to lodge your

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Speaker 2: financial statements on time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty simple in the end, turn into international news.

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Speaker 1: Now in global markets, oil fell to its lowest point

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Speaker 1: in five years after a solid, if unspectacular jobs report

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Speaker 1: in the US and renewed hopes of a deal in

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Speaker 1: Ukraine that could see restrictions eased on Russian oil exports.

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Speaker 2: Oils down below sixty US dollars a barrel after that information,

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Speaker 2: the jobs data and the speculation around Ukraine. Now, the

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate in the US ticked up from four point

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Speaker 2: four percent to four point six percent, but the actual

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Speaker 2: market still looks reasonably sold solid. The price of goal

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Speaker 2: has pushed above four three hundred US dollars announced the

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Speaker 2: UZI dollars about sixty six and a half US CeNSE. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Westpac has warned that the iron ore price could drop

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Speaker 2: twenty percent next year as China cuts its steel output

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Speaker 2: and a wave of fresh supply hits the market. Very

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Speaker 2: important for Australia, of course, because we make lots of money.

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Speaker 2: The government makes lots of money out of iron ore exports.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely and Tesla's share price has hit a record, surpassing

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Speaker 1: its prior all time high reached almost a year ago,

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Speaker 1: valuing the company at one point five to four trillion

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Speaker 1: US dollars.

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Speaker 2: Not bad. Shares jumped after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla

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Speaker 2: has been testing driverless vehicles in Texas with no occupants

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Speaker 2: on board. Now you would think driverless vehicles it didn't

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Speaker 2: have occupants on board. But of course, up until now,

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Speaker 2: all driverless vehicles have had to have someone sitting in

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Speaker 2: the driver's seat just in case. Not so in Texas.

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Speaker 2: That boosted cinnamon among investors. The company could soon make

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Speaker 2: good on its promise to turn electric vehicles into robo taxis,

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Speaker 2: so they bought the stock.

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Speaker 1: One last one. This is really interesting. China's fossil fuel

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Speaker 1: power plants are on track to chart their first annual

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Speaker 1: drop in generation in a decade, as renewables flood the

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Speaker 1: grid to meet rising demand.

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Speaker 2: So it is really interesting. Thermal electricity output fell by

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Speaker 2: more than four percent in the Vamber, according to data

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Speaker 2: published by the National Bureau of Statistics this week. Generation

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Speaker 2: from coal and gas fired plants is down zero point

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Speaker 2: seven percent this year, on track for the first annual

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Speaker 2: declinent since twenty fifteen. China's massive fleet of coal power

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Speaker 2: station is the world's leading source of greenhouse gases, fuel,

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Speaker 2: and global warning warming. Even though the nation is continuing

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Speaker 2: to build more of the plants, the use is plateauing

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Speaker 2: as huge investments in renewables meets growing consumption needs. According

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg, windpower jumped twenty two percent November from a

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Speaker 2: year earlier. Large solar farms were up twenty three percent.

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Speaker 2: Quite incredible they are making the shift, although they still

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Speaker 2: remain the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

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Speaker 1: Okay, up next is fear and greed, Q and A

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Speaker 1: and Sean. We received a question in here because we

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Speaker 1: definitely accept to listen to questions and if you've got

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Speaker 1: something that you'd like to know, send it on through.

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Speaker 1: Peter did just that, and he asked a question that

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Speaker 1: we didn't know the answer to, So we went out

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Speaker 1: and found somebody who did. Thomas Hodgson, a director at

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Speaker 1: an Thesis, which is a sustainability consultancy, all.

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Speaker 2: About how you measure all these emissions. And I must

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Speaker 2: say I had no idea, and I kept fumbling around

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Speaker 2: in the interview because I was pretty stupid, in't it.

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Speaker 2: But it's actually a lot simpler than I thought, and

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Speaker 2: it kind of all makes sense. How do you measure emissions?

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Speaker 2: And we asked that exact question and Thomas told us

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Speaker 2: the answer.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it's up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Thursday, the eighteenth

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Speaker 1: of December twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the

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Speaker 1: podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x

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Speaker 1: TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. That was Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.