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Speaker 1: A combination of a surge in the unemployment rate and

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Speaker 1: lower inflation in the US combined to send share markets soaring.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank warns that house prices and rents aren't

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Speaker 1: coming down anytime soon, and the story of Australia's hidden

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Speaker 1: Top twenty company ocom to Fear and Greed. Daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Friday,

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Speaker 1: the seventeenth of May twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael. Getting towards the end of a very,

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Speaker 2: very busy week.

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Speaker 1: Can't believe we're nearly at the end of budget week.

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Speaker 1: It feels like it's just flown by.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so much going on. I think my voice

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Speaker 2: needs a rest to be honest.

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Speaker 1: Should make the weekend edition tomorrow very interesting. Then, if

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Speaker 1: you have to stay silent the whole time, I'll recover.

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Speaker 2: I promise.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you will. Look after the show, you have

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Speaker 1: an interview coming up with Stephen Fennick, who is the

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Speaker 1: editor of tech guide dot com dot au. This is

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Speaker 1: a great chat.

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Speaker 2: It is so we take the three buzz phrases around

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Speaker 2: the place at the moment, one being virtual reality, another

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Speaker 2: being artificial intelligence, and the third one being quantum computing.

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Speaker 2: And we ask Stephen not just what they mean, but

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Speaker 2: how they affect us everyday consumers. So it is a

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Speaker 2: great chat about where those technologies are up to and

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Speaker 2: how they'll actually apply to our everyday life. Now, Steven's

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Speaker 2: great fella knows a lot about technology and communicates very well,

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Speaker 2: so well worth the list in this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. It's coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning Shawan the unemployment rate jumped

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Speaker 1: to four point one percent last month, following a surgeon

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Speaker 1: people looking for work.

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Speaker 2: The unemployment rate was a surprise given the number of

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Speaker 2: people employed actually grew by thirty eighty five hundred according

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Speaker 2: to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Both the growth and

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Speaker 2: employment and the unemployment rate the growth and the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate were higher than economists had expected. The March unemployment

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Speaker 2: number was also revised upwards to three point nine percent.

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Speaker 2: The influx of job seekers, along with an unusually high

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Speaker 2: number of people who had been offered a new job

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Speaker 2: but were waiting to start, led to a sharp thirty

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Speaker 2: thousand rise in the number of people classified as unemployed.

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Speaker 2: In that month they've come back on board. These numbers

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Speaker 2: demonstrate that the data jumps around a fair bit, and

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Speaker 2: the message, Michael in economics is always the trend is

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Speaker 2: your friend. Hence, what's the trend in the unemployment rate

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Speaker 2: doing well? It's trending higher. It isn't really a surprise.

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Speaker 2: In fact, what it's called the government and the reserve

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Speaker 2: being unawares is how well the labor market's done. That

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Speaker 2: helped the government deliver a budget surplus for this financial year.

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Speaker 2: Some benefit there. April's employment gains were driven by a

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Speaker 2: forty four thy six hundred increase in part time workers,

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Speaker 2: which more than off said a sixty one hundred drop

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Speaker 2: in full time employment. The high migration rates pushed the

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Speaker 2: participation rate to a near record called high of sixty

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Speaker 2: six point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: Short of spent. It's really been a heck of a

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Speaker 1: week in the economics world, hasn't it. We've had We've

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Speaker 1: had the federal budget which was slightly inflationary, although the

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Speaker 1: CPI rate will fall later in the year. We had

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Speaker 1: yesterday's labor force figures, but we've also had US inflation

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Speaker 1: figures come in lower than expected. Put it all into

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Speaker 1: what do we always say that the mix master, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there we goes and what spews out of the other

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Speaker 1: side in terms of interest rates.

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Speaker 2: Firstly, nothing spews out of a mixed master, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Well, if you've overfilled it.

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Speaker 2: Maybe financial markets, following everything that's happened in the past

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Speaker 2: three days, have no longer priced in any chance of

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Speaker 2: a rate high here in Australia. The next move, according

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Speaker 2: to traders, will be down and that could happen at

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Speaker 2: the end of this year. Bond traders have now priced

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Speaker 2: in a fifty percent chance of that happening by the

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Speaker 2: end of December. Certainly, given inflation figures in the US,

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Speaker 2: which I'll talk about shortly, it seems likely that there'll

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Speaker 2: be a race cut in the world's biggest economy later

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Speaker 2: this year, probably too. Now, all that has helped equity markets,

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Speaker 2: it's also pushed the Aussie dollar higher. In fact, the

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Speaker 2: Aussie dollar almost made it to sixty seven US since yesterday, Michael.

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Speaker 2: The Aussie dollar did something that's the other way of

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Speaker 2: putting that almost bottom line and all this, Michael, at

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Speaker 2: the end of the week is that we can be

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Speaker 2: more confident that the next move in rates is down

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Speaker 2: and it might even happen this year.

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Speaker 1: Well, that is good news. Local markets, how do they

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Speaker 1: perform Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Sea of Green, Michael at Sea of Green. Everyone was

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Speaker 2: out there excited.

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Speaker 1: I got here. Are a sucker for a cliche? Sometimes?

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Speaker 2: Yes, The SNPASX two hundred closed up one point and

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Speaker 2: eighty one points after a surge on Wall Street. Those

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Speaker 2: unemployment figures helped out too. Between the news on rates

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Speaker 2: in the US and the unemployment figures, equity investors kind

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Speaker 2: of became convinced that rates could well fall later this year.

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Speaker 2: And of course LA Registrates is good for earnings. Interest

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Speaker 2: rate sensitive stocks rose most Goodman Group was up four

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Speaker 2: point six percent. Wise, Tech Global jumped to four point

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Speaker 2: two percent. Now, of course that's the property sector lead

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Speaker 2: and the tech sector lead, and it was those two

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Speaker 2: sectors that did best yesterday. Really, all the large caps

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Speaker 2: were high, with the exception of the two energy groups

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Speaker 2: Woodside and Santos National. Australia Bank and ain Z led

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Speaker 2: the banks higher, both up more than two percent. Mac

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Speaker 2: Quarry was up nearly three percent. The big miners were higher,

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Speaker 2: so to the retailers, Transurban, Telstra blah blah blah. The

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Speaker 2: list just goes on quickly. Michael in Corporate News, the

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Speaker 2: bidding war for Nemoy cotton has been hit by the

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Speaker 2: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, saying a sale to France's

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Speaker 2: Louis Dreyfuss would substantially lessen competition. That certainly takes the

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Speaker 2: wind out of the sales of that little bidding war.

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Speaker 2: It sent Nemoy's share price lower, certainly put Singapore's Olam

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Speaker 2: in the box seat. Problem, of course, is that Louis

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Speaker 2: Drefus already owns almost seventeen percent of Nemoy. See how

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Speaker 2: that one works out.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we will now checking international markets thanks to blue

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Speaker 1: Chip Communication, the experts helping financial services companies market, communicate

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Speaker 1: and grow. Visit blue Chipcommunication, dot Com, dot Au and

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Speaker 1: Sean tell Us. About those US inflation figures.

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Speaker 2: Well, Wall Street hit a record high and bondnils tumbled

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Speaker 2: after a slowdown in inflation in the world's lastest economy

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Speaker 2: reinforced hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates in

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Speaker 2: the second half of this year. Core inflation, which excludes

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Speaker 2: food and energy costs, rowse zero point three percent, snapping

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Speaker 2: a run of above expected readings. As a result, the

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred hit its twenty third record

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Speaker 2: this year. Pretty amazing, isn't it?

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Speaker 1: That is outstanding, isn't it? You were just at that

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Speaker 1: point you just start to not get excited about records,

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Speaker 1: don't you. Twenty third record, we wouldn't even have had

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Speaker 1: twenty three weeks in the year. Yet that's a very

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Speaker 1: good point.

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Speaker 2: Anyway. The data provides hope that inflation is resuming its

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Speaker 2: downward trend, which would open the way for interest rate cuts.

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Speaker 2: They're also figures showing some softening and consumer demand in

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Speaker 2: the US. Anyway, it was very much a market moving

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Speaker 2: day in the past twenty four hours between US information,

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Speaker 2: local unemployment, lots of stuff going on.

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Speaker 1: We're in week twenty at the moment. So did you

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Speaker 1: hear what I said in the last I don't know minute,

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Speaker 1: no counting weeks.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing some of my best stuff there, Michael, and

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Speaker 2: you ignored me. I expected you to say something and

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Speaker 2: you just go back. It's week twenty, It is, really sure.

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Speaker 2: And the only place I can add value is these

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Speaker 2: little kind of tidbits of information that either I calculate,

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Speaker 2: whether a scrap of paper counting out the weeks, or

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Speaker 2: I google right good, which one was that one Google

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Speaker 2: that was Google.

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Speaker 1: A shame to admit that one. All right, we'll be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news show on the Reserve Bank expects house prices

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Speaker 1: and rents to keep rising for some time, saying a

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Speaker 1: perfect storm has prevented the construction industry from building more homes,

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Speaker 1: even though there is plenty of demand spurred on by

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Speaker 1: migration and working from home.

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank Chief economist Sarah Hunter said there is no

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Speaker 2: quick fix for Australia's housing market ways as developers defer

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Speaker 2: projects due to high costs. It's pretty simple supply and demand.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of the latter, not enough of the former. Normally

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Speaker 2: high demand will trigger a jump in construction. A few

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Speaker 2: things have gotten in the way over the past couple

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Speaker 2: of years. Doctor Hunter said the industry was already struggling

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Speaker 2: to get through its pipeline of residential projects that commenced

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Speaker 2: during the pandemic on the back of the home Builder program.

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Speaker 2: Finishing trades are in short supply and the cost of

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Speaker 2: building a new homes up forty percent since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: That's caused some developers and investors to delay or scrap

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Speaker 2: projects because they're just no longer viable, no longer economic.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Hunter added that supply and demand, much more than

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Speaker 2: interest rates, determined how many homes were built, and because

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Speaker 2: of this issue around supply, we are still going to

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Speaker 2: have higher prices, higher rents for some time to come.

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Speaker 1: Sewn. The Government and the Greens have agreed to pass

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Speaker 1: a slew of legislation, including changes to the petroleum Resource

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Speaker 1: rent tax, before Parliament rises for the end of budget week.

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Speaker 2: So maybe you could possibly just google collective noun for

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Speaker 2: legislation already on it sean Yeah, good vehicle emission standards, changes,

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Speaker 2: new offshore gas approval rules and changes stemming from the

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Speaker 2: PwC tax Leak's scandal will pass the Senate. As part

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Speaker 2: of the deal, Labor has agreed to carve out proposed

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Speaker 2: new powers for the Resources Minister to see it wills

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Speaker 2: related to offshore gas production. Also yesterday, Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albernezi criticized backbench Labour Senator Fatima Payman after she recited

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Speaker 2: the quote from the river to the sea end quote slogan,

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Speaker 2: which has been condemned as anti semitic. The government was

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Speaker 2: forced to back a coalition Senate motion that implicitly criticized

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Speaker 2: Sensitive Payment by calling on Senators to refrain from inflammatory

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Speaker 2: and divisive comments. Senator Payment avoided the vote in the Senate.

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Speaker 2: Now on Wednesday, she sparked a fracture within labor of

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Speaker 2: the Middle East War by accusing Israel of committing genocide

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. That triggered mister Albernesi's response yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Sean, while we're talking politics, former Prime Minister Scott Morrison

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Speaker 1: and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump are unlikely bedfellows. I

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Speaker 1: suppose I use that word very, very cautiously, but close.

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Speaker 1: They are. Really the former PM visiting mister Trump in

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Speaker 1: New York. There's some fantastic photos of the two of

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Speaker 1: them together and calling the current legal battles involving the

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Speaker 1: former president a pylon.

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Speaker 2: Mister Morrison met mister Trump at his private residence and

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Speaker 2: afterwards in America's legal system, risks damaging its reputation and

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Speaker 2: being viewed as similar to those in developing nations that

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Speaker 2: are politically compromised. Mister Trump is leading Democrat President Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden in the polls. Of course, the US votes in November,

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Speaker 2: but mister Trump also faces more than ninety criminal charges

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Speaker 2: across four separate cases. The current running trial in New

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Speaker 2: York involves allegations of approving a payment to bury a

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Speaker 2: porn actor's story of a sexual encounter before it could

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Speaker 2: derail his twenty sixteen campaign. Mister Morrison said mister Trump

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Speaker 2: indicated support for the Orcust submarine deal during the meeting.

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Speaker 2: The former PM is in the US launching his book

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Speaker 2: Plans for Your Good, a Prime Minister's testimony of God's faithfulness.

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Speaker 2: Now some of the guests helping him launch that are

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Speaker 2: actually former Trump staffer's, former Vice President Mike Pence, and

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Speaker 2: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeia.

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Speaker 1: Air Vanuatu administrators say the airline was quote clearly not

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Speaker 1: in a position to meet its financial commitments well before

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Speaker 1: it collapsed earlier this month, owing more than ninety nine

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Speaker 1: million dollars to customers, staff and lenders in full.

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Speaker 2: Liquidator Ernst and Young said evan Awato had a high

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Speaker 2: cost base for the size of its operations and a

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Speaker 2: significant level of debt. Now the carrier had been supported

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Speaker 2: financially by the Government of Vanuatu. Ev Vanuatu, who flew

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Speaker 2: to Brisbane, Sydney Melbourne and Auckland, as well as Nandy

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Speaker 2: in Fiji and Eumea in New Caledonia also operated a

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Speaker 2: small domestic flight. It fell into liquidation a week ago,

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Speaker 2: canceling a bunch of flights and it doesn't look good

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Speaker 2: for that airline, very similar to Bonza.

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Speaker 1: Really Sean Intertech's share price hit a year high, even

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Speaker 1: though the group lost money over the last six months.

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Speaker 2: Yes it announced an interim loss of one hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty eight million dollars in the back of impairments from

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Speaker 2: its fertilizers business, which were only partly offset the sale

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Speaker 2: of its wagermann Ammonia manufacturing facility in the US. Investors though,

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Speaker 2: focused on underlying gains of eighteen percent and talks to

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Speaker 2: offload the fertilizer business. Now Instite is in negotiations for

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Speaker 2: the sale of that business with an Indonesian group.

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Speaker 1: Another stock to do well yesterday I mentioned this at

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Speaker 1: the top of the show was gaming machine maker Aristocrat Leisure.

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Speaker 1: Its share price jump twelve percent after a big increase

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Speaker 1: in net profit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fascinating company this one. It's half your net profit

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Speaker 2: was up sixteen percent and that triggered a high dividend

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Speaker 2: for shareholders and a three hundred and fifty million dollar

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Speaker 2: boost to its share buyback program. Aristocrat started in nineteen

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Speaker 2: sixty five. A guy called Lenn Ainsworth started the company.

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Speaker 2: It was then split and his boys took over. Lenaines

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Speaker 2: had started his own company then that was also listed. Nowadays,

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Speaker 2: Aristocrat has three arms. Traditional gaming machines things you find

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Speaker 2: in pubs, clubs and casinos, online social where no money

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Speaker 2: is involved, and online real money games. It's doing really

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Speaker 2: well in the US were slot machine markem. Effectively, it

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Speaker 2: rents out its machines and then takes a cut of

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Speaker 2: the money that's put through them. There was also a

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Speaker 2: highly successful launch of six NFL branded games, which chief

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Speaker 2: executive Troy Craig has said was the biggest launch in

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Speaker 2: the company's history. According to the Financial Review, they were

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Speaker 2: slot machine games that have done really well in the US.

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Speaker 2: In the social gaming division, which is called Pixel United,

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Speaker 2: a seventeen percent increasing profit was driven by growth in

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Speaker 2: aristocrats market share and social and the continued success of

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Speaker 2: a role playing video game called Raid Shadow Legends. Now

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Speaker 2: do you know anything about this one, Michael, I don't,

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Speaker 2: but I suspect you're about to tell me. So a

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Speaker 2: player enters a fantasy world, goes on quests involving lords, barbarians,

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Speaker 2: demon spawn ells and others. There you go.

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Speaker 1: Well, Sean, if I had to pick one for you,

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Speaker 1: it is Sean Sean Demons Alma. It just rolls off

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Speaker 1: the tongue and even right, you are Michael the Barbarian.

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Speaker 1: I think I suspect. Sorry, I mean that sounds tough

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Speaker 1: as heck.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely absolutely. Now, mind you know, Aristocrat comes up

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Speaker 2: with this. This is a company that's given you an

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Speaker 2: eighth share price return over the last ten years. It's

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Speaker 2: the seventeenth largest company on the I six. Quite amazing really,

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Speaker 2: and it would easily be the least known top twenty company.

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Speaker 2: Like we all know the banks and the miners and

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Speaker 2: the retailers and all that. Aristocrat Leisure a demon of

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Speaker 2: a company.

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Speaker 1: Oh Sean, you demon spawn, you the this has got

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Speaker 1: sleeper story written all over it. For the weekend edition,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't you say?

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Speaker 2: I might take it. I'll take it, thanks very much.

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Speaker 1: I suggested it, Oh savage, this is how you got

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Speaker 1: the nickname demon Spawn. Do not miss the weekend edition tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: It is a competitive environment between me and Sean and

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Speaker 1: our fear and green colleague Adam lang adjudicates this and

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Speaker 1: it is a lot of fun. We do enjoy it.

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Speaker 2: It is indeed, he referees well, Adam, he referees well.

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Speaker 1: He has a very, very tough job, doesn't he? All right?

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now, Sean and Slovakia's Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Robert Fitso is fighting for his life after being shot

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Speaker 1: in public, the first assassination attempt on a European leader

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Speaker 1: in more than two decades.

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Speaker 2: The fifty nine year old was rushed to hospital following

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Speaker 2: an attack by a seventy one year old man who

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Speaker 2: police believe had a clear political motivation. Mister Fitso has

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Speaker 2: been the dominant political figure in the eastern European nation

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Speaker 2: of five point four million since the fall of communism.

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Speaker 2: He's returned to power last year reflects opposition in the

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Speaker 2: country to European Union institutions in Brussels, and his Russia

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Speaker 2: friendly stances put him at odds with partners threatening to

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Speaker 2: undermine EU unity in helping Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: And finally Sean. France has declared a state of emergency

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Speaker 1: in its specific territory of New Caledonia as it seeks

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Speaker 1: to quell deadly riots sparked by a controversial electoral reform.

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Speaker 2: Four people, including one police officer, have died in unrest

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Speaker 2: that has raged this week, despite the deployment of extra

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Speaker 2: police and in position of a curfew. According to The

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Speaker 2: Financial Times, French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the unacceptable violence

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Speaker 2: and called for the resumption of talks to negotiate a

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Speaker 2: political solution to the crisis. Declaring a state of emergency

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Speaker 2: allows a government to restrict certain freedoms without judicial review,

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Speaker 2: including beanning protests, limiting travel, and carrying out searches.

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Speaker 1: All right, Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: It's a great one today, speaking with Stephen Fannick, editor

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Speaker 1: of tech Guide dot com dot au.

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Speaker 2: All about the three buzz phrases at the moment, artificial intelligence,

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Speaker 2: quantum computing and virtual reality.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which is also where you can sign up for the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed weekly newsletter. Head along pop your email

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Speaker 1: addressing and the newsletter comes out mid morning on a Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: So you've got a bit of time, but get in now,

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Speaker 1: so don't forget.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, the seventeenth of May twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson And that was

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. Had a great day.