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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week ahead. I'm Sean Almer,

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Speaker 1: and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Cocurlis. You'll

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Speaker 1: find him at the cook dot com and on excusing

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Speaker 1: the handle of the kirktg kuk dot com. This morning,

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Speaker 1: he is coming live from the airport, hence the background noise. Stephen,

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Speaker 1: good morning.

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Speaker 2: Apologies for the background noise that some of us economists

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Speaker 2: we just rack up the frequent flyer miles. A lot's

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Speaker 2: going on.

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Speaker 1: There is so much going on. It's not one of

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Speaker 1: the weeks that we can miss because it is a

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Speaker 1: massive week. Before we get into that just very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Last week, the big news really was the CPI number

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Speaker 1: underlying inflation disappointing, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Mixed news. We had the headline thing of dropping to

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Speaker 2: two point one in annual terms, so the effect of

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Speaker 2: the electricity subsidies and the big dropping petrol prices showing up.

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Speaker 2: But of course they are trimmed out of what the

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Speaker 2: reserve bag like to look at when it comes to

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Speaker 2: the inflation measure. So we had a little bit of

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Speaker 2: an uptick in the trim the mean inflation rate to

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Speaker 2: three and a half percent. So the way to interpret

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Speaker 2: it is is, yes, it's good for the inflation expectations

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Speaker 2: are lower, but there's a bit of a concern that

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Speaker 2: the underlying rate isn't falling quickly enough.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything to worry about in that, Steven, or

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Speaker 1: is it kind of as we'd expect?

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Speaker 2: Look, it was muster them up, this huge volatility. What

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Speaker 2: happens to the price of a loaf of bread in

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Speaker 2: a month or things like that. You know, we know

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Speaker 2: petrol can be very volatile in those things. But we

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Speaker 2: take comfort from what's happening around the rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: The US had some inflation data too. It was good.

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Speaker 2: You know, it wasn't further confirming that inflation's under control,

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Speaker 2: but we had sort of confirmation that the inflation rates lower.

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Speaker 2: Our friends at the Reserve bankt in New Zealand they

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Speaker 2: cut into straits by fifty basis points. So the sort

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Speaker 2: of dynamics of lower inflation, the gentle easing in cycles

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Speaker 2: around many economies around the world, was confirmed in the

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Speaker 2: data we saw last week. And yep, the numbers we

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Speaker 2: saw were important, but we've got a lot more information

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Speaker 2: to sort of think about as well.

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Speaker 1: Let's get under this week. The big one is the

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Speaker 1: economic growth figures for the quarter. The September quarter huge years.

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Speaker 2: Some people say that a bit backward looking, but of

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Speaker 2: course we rely on the Bureau of Stats to produce

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Speaker 2: these numbers. GDP grows probably around about half a percent

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Speaker 2: of the quarter, which would be actually one of the

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Speaker 2: strongest that we've seen in about eighteen months. There was

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Speaker 2: a pickup in consumers spending. The tax cuts took effect

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Speaker 2: on the first of July. That was a positive. We

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Speaker 2: had the capex numbers out last week, which were a

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Speaker 2: small plus. The experts are probably going to be okay

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Speaker 2: as well, but government spending all feeding into an okay result.

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Speaker 2: That will give you know, the IBA a little bit

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Speaker 2: of comfort that the economy is not deteriorating further and

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Speaker 2: faster than it currently thought it was going to disease.

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Speaker 1: What about the end I mean partial indicators. We've got

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Speaker 1: retail trade and building approvals. What are you expecting from them?

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Speaker 2: Oh, again, they're the October numbers, So we get the

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Speaker 2: September quarter GDP and these early building blocks into the

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Speaker 2: December quarter. Day retail sales probably soggy again. We know

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Speaker 2: that consumers are sort of hunkering down. These will not

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Speaker 2: include obviously the Black Friday sales from last week, which

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Speaker 2: we don't know yet, But so the Oretoba result is

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Speaker 2: probably going to be a bit softer, about a plus

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Speaker 2: point two point three something like that. Building approvals shoppiers

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Speaker 2: can be They rose four and a half percent last month,

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Speaker 2: so probably just a statistical pullback that the trend towards

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Speaker 2: a moderate slow pickup in building activity. House building activity

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Speaker 2: is unfolding slowly but surely so. Look, the economy, I think,

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Speaker 2: in a nutshell, is growing not very fast. Inflation is

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Speaker 2: falling but not very fast. Unemployments rising but not very fast.

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Speaker 2: I think that's the sort of nutshell that will sort

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Speaker 2: of take away from the data of the last couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks and the stuff that's coming out later this week.

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Speaker 1: Now I can't let you get on your flight without

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Speaker 1: talking about house prices. End of the month, of course,

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Speaker 1: we end up with house price figures not so good

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Speaker 1: for many cities. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, we've got confirmation from the core Logic Numbers that

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Speaker 2: the high frequency data they release every day is that

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Speaker 2: Sydney's joined the camp of the house price falling not much,

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Speaker 2: probably about a minus point two percent. And look on

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Speaker 2: a one and a half million dollar property point two percent.

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Speaker 2: The client is not that worrying, but there's a change

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Speaker 2: in momentum. Melbourne's down. We're probably going to confirm that

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Speaker 2: darw and Hobart and Canberra are down, and even the

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Speaker 2: booms cities perse in particular, but Brisbane and Adelaide they're

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Speaker 2: increasing at a slower pace. So demand is moderating as

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Speaker 2: immigrations cooling off, supplies increasing because of new listings coming through.

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Speaker 2: Maybe hows it's just about to have its period of

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Speaker 2: a consolidation. That price is sort of plus a minus

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Speaker 2: point two point three percent for the month, and probably

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Speaker 2: a couple of percent of the year is starting to

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Speaker 2: come through too.

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Speaker 1: Stephen, and enjoy the week. Enjoy the flight, and enjoy

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Speaker 1: the week.

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Speaker 2: I think my flight's been called simar. I wish we

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Speaker 2: luck so.

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Speaker 1: That it was a kind of a Stephen cocullis better

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Speaker 1: nan as the Koki. You can find him at the

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Speaker 1: cook dot com and follow him on x using to

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Speaker 1: handle the Kirk. I'm Sean al Matt and this is

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. The week Ahead