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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi rejects calls to impose sanctions on Israel.

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Speaker 1: Auction clearance rates ease as home buyers wait for the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank to cut rates, and Timu and Guzmani Gomez

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Speaker 1: take Australia by storm. Plus Optus faces legal action over

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Speaker 1: its twenty twenty two cyber attack, and Ukrainian President Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Zelenski rejects Donald Trump's suggestion of a landswap deal with Russia.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the eleventh of August twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Adam Lang.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael sewn Aylmer is away and I'm off

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Speaker 2: the bench and into the podcast.

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Speaker 1: And I'm out of breath after an epic introduction to

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Speaker 1: the show. So let's get going the main story this morning, Adam.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi has brushed off calls to impose

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Speaker 1: sanctions on Israel after the Israeli government announced plans late

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Speaker 1: last week to occupy Gaza City. The Prime mins have

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Speaker 1: spent the weekend in New Zealand, really, where geo politics

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Speaker 1: has absolutely dominated the agenda.

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Speaker 3: Yes Michael Missed.

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Speaker 2: Albanesi and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxan met in

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Speaker 2: Queenstown for an annual sit down, with talks centering largely

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Speaker 2: on China's presence in the Pacific and a push for

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Speaker 2: peace in the Middle East. The leaders reiterated calls from

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Speaker 2: an immediate cease fire and for the unimpeded entry of

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Speaker 2: aid into Gaza in response toward Albanizi, referred to as

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Speaker 2: a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding. On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

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Speaker 2: nettin Yahoo declared the country would send ground troops into

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Speaker 2: Gaza in the latest escalation of the conflict. When asked

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Speaker 2: by a reporter if he had ruled out further sanctions

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Speaker 2: on Israel, the Prime Minister said, what we need to

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Speaker 2: do here is to have very clear statements and actions

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Speaker 2: by the Australian government that make a difference, rather than

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Speaker 2: respond to a slogan on a protest and adam.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister also rejected the idea that possible trade

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Speaker 1: retaliation from the US over recognizing Palestinian statehood would affect

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Speaker 1: Australia's position on the matter, saying we make our own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It came as Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke suggested that

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Speaker 1: a Palestinian state could still be recognized even if Harmas

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Speaker 1: was still present, saying there is quote precedent for Australia

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Speaker 1: to recognize countries that are at least partly occupied by

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Speaker 1: terrorist forces Yeah Michael.

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Speaker 2: Speaking to Sky News, the Home Affairs Minister said Australia

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Speaker 2: has recognized and maintained relations with other nations in the past,

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Speaker 2: even while under partial terrorist control. Referring to Syria and Iraq,

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Speaker 2: Burke said, quote it didn't stop us from recognizing and

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Speaker 2: having diplomatic relations with those countries themselves, end of quote.

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Speaker 2: The federal government has maintained that Hamas can play no

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Speaker 2: role in a future Palestinian state.

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Speaker 1: And still in politics ADAM. The Albanese government is facing

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Speaker 1: reports of billions of dollars in public sector funding cliffs,

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Speaker 1: with key departments including health, Social Services and Climate and Energy,

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Speaker 1: warning of severe budget cuts in years to come.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Financial Review is reporting bureaucrats have warned ministers

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Speaker 2: about looming budget shortfalls, particularly from twenty twenty six to

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Speaker 2: twenty seven, when funding expires for at least one hundred programs.

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Speaker 2: The officials say, these fiscal cliffs threaten service delivery, key

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Speaker 2: government initiatives and thousands of jobs.

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Speaker 1: All right now, turning away from politics, Adam, it is

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Speaker 1: really all eyes on the Reserve Bank this week is

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Speaker 1: and it's a very exciting week because the board kicks

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Speaker 1: off a two day meeting today ago, today and tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: and they will be discussing interest rates with very significant

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Speaker 1: expectations that the RBA will cut rates for the third

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Speaker 1: time this year.

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Speaker 3: That's also what we thought last time.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Michael, I think there are millions of people hanging

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Speaker 2: on this announcement. With inflation now well within the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank of Australia's preferred range of between two and three percent,

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Speaker 2: financial markets are fully priced for a cut of zero

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Speaker 2: point two five percent when this Central Bank announcers its

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Speaker 2: decision tomorrow, and additional two rate cuts are expected by

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Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty six. The expectations of the rate cuts

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Speaker 2: certainly helped the local market last week. It might have

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Speaker 2: closed lower on Friday, but the S and p ASX

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Speaker 2: two hundred was up one point seven percent for the week.

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Speaker 2: ASX futures are suggesting we can expect modest green on

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Speaker 2: the screens.

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Speaker 1: Today and Adam I was reading some commentary around the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank and the expectations that yes, everyone did expect

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Speaker 1: an interest rate cut last time, but they are more

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Speaker 1: sure of it this time. And it was AMP Deputy

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Speaker 1: Chief Economist down in Messina was saying that this is

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Speaker 1: the we will get the rate cut tomorrow that we

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Speaker 1: should have got last month, and that AMP is expecting

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Speaker 1: the Monetary Policy Board to vote nine nil. I was

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Speaker 1: trying to think able to be nine zero decision nine love.

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Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure. I don't know really what sport

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank Board kind of adheres to for this,

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Speaker 1: but it is looking pretty likely. And that is what

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Speaker 1: we delve into today with Fear and Greed Q and

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Speaker 1: A which comes up after the show, speaking to our

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Speaker 1: resident economist Stephen Coucoulis, who has such a great insight

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Speaker 1: and it was also asking some questions about how inconvenient

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Speaker 1: the timing of the decision tomorrow from the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 1: Board is considering we've got some very big economic data

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Speaker 1: releases that come through on Wednesday and Thursday this week

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Speaker 1: which would have a significant bearing on the decision. And

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Speaker 1: the timing is just completely out of whack anyway, that's

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Speaker 1: coming up after the show. And it's really not just

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Speaker 1: the local boss that's eying interest rate cuts. Who've got

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Speaker 1: US trade tariffs coming into play that have only had

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Speaker 1: a relatively muted effect on global markets, offset by hopes

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Speaker 1: for coming cuts to interest rates by the US Central Bank.

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Speaker 1: But really it is the President who's doing all the

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Speaker 1: talking about rate cuts in the States. At the moment,

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Speaker 1: the FED is clearly reluctant to move, and on Friday,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump announced the appointment of one of his economic

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Speaker 1: advisors as a FED governor. It's a temporary appointment, but

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Speaker 1: Stephen Meren is very much pro cuts.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Michael Gaines in tech related stocks and growing optimism about

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Speaker 2: potential interest rate cuts in the US saw Wall Street

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Speaker 2: end the week higher, as the Nasdaq chalked up its

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Speaker 2: eighteenth record closing for twenty twenty five. Shares in Apple

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Speaker 2: were up thirteen percent for the week. It's the biggest

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Speaker 2: weekly percentage gain since twenty twenty. After US President Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump said that tech Titan would invest an additional one

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Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars in the US, bringing its total investment

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Speaker 2: to six hundred billion over the next four years. Investors

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Speaker 2: will assess a fresh inflation measure this week as an

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Speaker 2: indicator of whether the US Federal Reserve could pull the

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Speaker 2: trigger at its next meeting on September seventeenth.

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Speaker 1: All right, Adam, we have got a lot still to

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Speaker 1: cover and not a lot of time to do it.

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Speaker 1: We'll take a very quick break and be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business.

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Speaker 3: News, Adam.

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Speaker 1: Home Buyers have taken just a slight breather over the weekend,

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Speaker 1: with auction clearance rates easing just a touch, perhaps maybe

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Speaker 1: pausing as they await the results of the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 1: Board meeting. Maybe just maybe there was a little breathe

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Speaker 1: in Michael. Across Australia's capital cities, the combined preliminary auction

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Speaker 1: clearance rate fell to seventy one point seven percent. While high,

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Speaker 1: it's the softest result in six weeks, down from seventy

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Speaker 1: two point three percent. Sydney had logged a clearance rate

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Speaker 1: of seventy four point three percent, and that's the ninth

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Speaker 1: consecutive week above seventy percent. Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate was

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Speaker 1: seventy point nine percent. That's a four week low for them. Still,

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Speaker 1: the numbers are reasonably strong and are tipped to pick

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Speaker 1: up again if and when the Reserve Bank of Australia

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Speaker 1: cuts rates and as the weather warms up to spring.

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Speaker 1: That's right, as we get into the all important spring

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Speaker 1: selling season.

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Speaker 3: Just a quick one.

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Speaker 1: Adam cole freight operation Arizon is in talks to sell

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Speaker 1: up to forty nine percent of at Central Queensland Coal Network,

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Speaker 1: seeking bids of up to four billion dollars to offset

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Speaker 1: sliding profits and boost investor confidence. This is out of

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Speaker 1: the Australian Financial Review. I love any story involving trains.

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Speaker 3: And coal.

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Speaker 2: Horizon is valued at up to eight billion dollars and

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Speaker 2: is the country's largest coal freight operation, linking over forty

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Speaker 2: minds to export terminals. Goldman Sachs is running the investor process,

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Speaker 2: targeting infrastructure investors, hedge funds and insurers.

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Speaker 1: And train enthusiasts. I don't know whether that's the case,

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Speaker 1: but I'm sure there's a few scatter train enthusiasts with

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Speaker 1: a lot of money with deep, deep deep pockets. Now

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Speaker 1: Adam MasterCard has warned the Reserve Bank's proposal to end

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Speaker 1: Card surcharges and cut interchange fees could end up costing

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Speaker 1: consumers more than they actually pay at the moment.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Michael.

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia estimates a cap on interchange

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Speaker 2: fees would reduce bank revenue by about nine hundred million

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Speaker 2: dollars a year, a figure that MasterCard says the banks

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Speaker 2: would seek to recoup through high credit card interest rates

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Speaker 2: and your fees, reduced rewards and new debit card charges.

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Speaker 2: And it's not just the banks. MasterCard says large retailers

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Speaker 2: like Coals and Woolworths would need to lift prices by

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Speaker 2: an aggregate two hundred and sixty million dollars each year

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Speaker 2: to offset the higher fees. All up, master Card estimates

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Speaker 2: the plan could cost consumers one point five billion dollars annually,

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Speaker 2: exceeding the one point two billion shoppers currently pay in surcharges.

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Speaker 1: We received a really interesting fear and greed Q and

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Speaker 1: a question about this Adam, which you and I might

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Speaker 1: jump into in the next couple of weeks, because it

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Speaker 1: does ask the question of how much these surcharges will

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Speaker 1: just be hidden within the cost that is charged to consumers.

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Speaker 1: And this kind of does touch on that, so we

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Speaker 1: might have to to get into that one in the.

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Speaker 3: Next week or two. It's a ripper, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Optus ADAM is facing fresh legal action over the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two cyber attack that compromised the data of nine

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Speaker 1: and a half million customers. Australia's privacy watchdog, the Australian

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Speaker 1: Information Commissioner, alleges the telco failed to take reasonable steps

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Speaker 1: to protect personal information things like passports, drivers, licensed Medicare

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Speaker 1: details for almost three years before the breach.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the Federal court could theoretically impose penalties of up

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Speaker 2: to two point two two million dollars per person affected,

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Speaker 2: and that would total twenty point nine trillion dollars, though

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Speaker 2: any actual fine is likely to be far smaller. Optus

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Speaker 2: as we know is already facing federal court claims by

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Speaker 2: the Australian Communications and Media Authority that it failed to

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Speaker 2: protect confidential details in its database, as well as a

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Speaker 2: class action lawsuit. In June, Optus agreed to pay one

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars in penalties for unconscionable conduct related to

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Speaker 2: sales practices, and that was following legal action by the

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Speaker 2: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission It's been quite the run

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Speaker 2: for Optus.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly has Now how about this one. Adam Timu

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Speaker 1: and Guzmani Gomez have taken out the top spots as

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Speaker 1: Australia's fastest growing consumer retail brands, each collecting more than

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Speaker 1: one million new customers in just one year.

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Speaker 2: This is great data, Michael. Analyzing the financial transaction data

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Speaker 2: of around ninety thousand Australians and weighted against Australian Bureau

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Speaker 2: Statistics Population estimates, research group FONTO found almost thirty three

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Speaker 2: percent of the population purchased from Guzmani Gomez restaurants in

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Speaker 2: the twenty five financial year. Now that's incredible, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Almost one third of Australians stopped into a Guzmani Gomez.

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Speaker 2: Tmu's growth equated to more than one point three million

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Speaker 2: new customers throughout the year. Other notable mentions go to

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Speaker 2: privately owned Baker's Delight, which notched up almost one million

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Speaker 2: new customers, and Chemist Warehouse, with seven to ten Australians

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Speaker 2: purchasing from its still during the year.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news. Now, in Ukrainian President

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Zelensky has rejected suggestions from US President Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: that a possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could

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Speaker 1: see the two countries swap land.

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Speaker 2: Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet in the

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Speaker 2: United States state of Alaska on Friday, the first meeting

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Speaker 2: between the country's two leaders since Russia invaded Ukraine in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. Announcing the meeting, Trump said there'll be

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Speaker 2: some swapping of territories to the betterment of both, without

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Speaker 2: providing much further details. Zelensky rejected the idea, saying Ukraine

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Speaker 2: will not give Russia any awards for what it has done,

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Speaker 2: while also claiming any negotiations to end the conflict without

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Speaker 2: the Ukraine are decisions against peace that will never work.

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Speaker 1: Adam McDonald's in the US has warned that poorer customers

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Speaker 1: in that country are cutting back on visits to fast

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Speaker 1: food restaurants.

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Speaker 2: Yeah Michael McDonald's second quarter results were released last week,

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Speaker 2: and they were up abeat on and earnings, but comments

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Speaker 2: from chief executive Chris Kemzinski are pointing to headwinds amongst

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Speaker 2: lower income consumers, who are a real barometer for fast

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Speaker 2: food restaurants. Breakfast has been the weakest meal of the day,

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Speaker 2: with slowing wage growth and negative sentiment, prompting customers to

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Speaker 2: skip a day part, trade down their menu choices, or

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Speaker 2: simply eat at home. The CEO told analysts.

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Speaker 1: And while we're speaking big American companies, Airbnb adam is

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Speaker 1: exploring its future in somewhat surprisingly hotels.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Michael, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky Todd investors, the home

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Speaker 2: rental business will be going significantly more aggressively into hotels.

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Speaker 2: The expansion, referred to as an and not an ore strategy,

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Speaker 2: is to plug the gap for when home options may

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Speaker 2: be limited, for instance in cities and peak periods, or

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Speaker 2: for travelers who just prefer hotel amenities. Airbnb's second quarter

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Speaker 2: earnings did beat market expectations, but investors hoping for a

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Speaker 2: rebound in travel demand word disappointed by warnings of tough

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Speaker 2: months ahead with investment in news services and Trump's new

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Speaker 2: trade tariffs set to way on third quarter earnings margins.

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Speaker 1: If you prefer what a hotel has to offer, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't just book with a hotel.

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Speaker 2: Then I'm wondering if there's a bit of rate arbitrage.

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Speaker 3: Michael. This is quite exciting, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, We've run out of time Adam, I would love

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Speaker 1: to continue discussing Airbnb with you, but up next is

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A featuring Stephen could cool

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Speaker 1: us all about the Reserve Bank board meeting today and

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Speaker 1: tomorrow and the other data that you need to be

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Speaker 1: across for the rest of the week. It's coming up

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is where

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Speaker 1: you sign up for our free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 3: Thank you very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the eleventh of August twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram.

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Speaker 3: X TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 1: a great day.