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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to The Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: James Kirby, the editor at The Australian, and welcome again

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Speaker 1: to our series of shows where we look at the

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Speaker 1: outlook for two twenty five and if you've listened to

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Speaker 1: the episode with Mark Docom of global X, basically we

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Speaker 1: went around the world in thirty five minutes or so

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Speaker 1: with Mark looking at the outlook for markets themselves, right,

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Speaker 1: so we looked at the consensus viewers, what will happen

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Speaker 1: on the ASEX, what will happen on NASDAK, what will

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Speaker 1: happen on the big markets around the world. And today

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Speaker 1: I want to zone in on the Australian market and

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Speaker 1: the ASX. How did it do? What can we expect

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Speaker 1: in the year ahead. My guest is jun Belieu. She

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Speaker 1: has been on the show before. You would have known her,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure from the Tribeca days. She is now the

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Speaker 1: portfolio manager at a new operation called ten Capital, which

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Speaker 1: kicks off this year, so it's going to be a

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Speaker 1: special year for her. Always great to have you on

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Speaker 1: the show. How are you going?

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Speaker 2: I'm very girl.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much for having me. James were always

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Speaker 3: lovely to talk about stock market.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you do. Well, look just before we start,

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Speaker 1: so we listeners will have got good context from the

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Speaker 1: show where we're basically we looked at the global performance

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Speaker 1: and in isolation, the Australian performance of the AX looked

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Speaker 1: perfectly good. I mean, it all looked very fine, but

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Speaker 1: it was only it was way way behind the US market.

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Speaker 1: But we've covered that issue. So just to look at

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Speaker 1: the Australian market, it did very well. We're talking eighteen

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Speaker 1: percent or so. The dividend yields something in the order

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Speaker 1: of four exceptionally driven on this occasion by banks and financials,

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Speaker 1: which was a surprise I expect for most people. Was

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Speaker 1: it a surprise for you? I mean it seemed to

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Speaker 1: me the consensus was from months and months cellier bank

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Speaker 1: stocks and that that was wrong.

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Speaker 3: Right absolutely now, I expected banks to do so well,

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Speaker 3: particularly in an environment where we thought the economy is

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Speaker 3: going to slow down. Surely the banks can help hold

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Speaker 3: on to its you know, its glory when their profit

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Speaker 3: margin the NIM has already peaked at the beginning of

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Speaker 3: the year. Remember March quarter was pretty much the peak

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Speaker 3: of the earnings, and then from their nons on its

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Speaker 3: way down. But what has transpired is that the banks

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Speaker 3: actually delivered best they expected profit clearly because our economy

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Speaker 3: has remained reasonably resilient like around the world. And also

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Speaker 3: which many didn't quite think about, is that the banks,

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Speaker 3: you know, previous couple of years, they have provided a

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Speaker 3: lot of provision, put a lot of provisions in their accounts,

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Speaker 3: so that means when the economy is not as bad

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Speaker 3: as they expected, they actually write the profit back. So

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Speaker 3: that's why we actually had a lot of burnings upgrade

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Speaker 3: for the banks at the same time, because economy is

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Speaker 3: doing well, they got so much excess capital they were

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Speaker 3: just paying our special dividend buying back their shares, so

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Speaker 3: really boosted their earnings profile for the last twelve month.

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Speaker 2: And that is too surprised of many.

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Speaker 3: You know, at the beginning of the year, wellflore CBA

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Speaker 3: was done that one hundred dollars and it continued rally

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Speaker 3: on and it is incredible.

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Speaker 1: It's been terrific. Obviously, it's about one hundred and fifty.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: I have an incredible performance for CBA, you know. I

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Speaker 3: think that's one amazing thing. CBA is training at more

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Speaker 3: expensive I think at least close a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: more expensive there CSL.

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Speaker 2: You know, CSL is our all.

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Speaker 3: Time favorite, you know, long term growth company, and it's

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Speaker 3: training chief of their CBA. So it's just seems to

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Speaker 3: be a bit of disconnect at the moment.

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Speaker 1: So whatever wants to know. Of course, that's the impossible

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Speaker 1: question of what will happen in the future. But if

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Speaker 1: we look at the performance of the market and we

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Speaker 1: say it was I mean, first of all, the IT companies,

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Speaker 1: but that's a very small sector from a market cap

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Speaker 1: point of view, did best, and then they were at

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Speaker 1: fifty percent or so, which is extraordinary. But Comewell Bank

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Speaker 1: they virtually did fifty percent over the year did about

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Speaker 1: forty something percent, which again is extraordinary. The financial stocks

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Speaker 1: generally did thirty three percent or so. Would it be

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Speaker 1: foolish for any of our listeners to think that those

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Speaker 1: banks could continue on anything like that momentum? And what

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Speaker 1: everyone says, you should sell the banks and the brokers

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Speaker 1: have said this for six months and they've been wrong

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Speaker 1: for six months, but maybe they will be right in

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Speaker 1: the end. If we have CBA at twenty eight times,

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Speaker 1: which is miles ahead of its usual eratio, are they

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Speaker 1: vulnerable to a sell off.

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Speaker 2: They are very vulnerable.

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Speaker 3: Vulnerable not only to a market sell off, they're also

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Speaker 3: vulnerable to a market rotation. So this is what everyone's

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Speaker 3: talking about. Will be a big theme for twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 3: you know, rotation intersectors, whether it's the small cap companies

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Speaker 3: who has underperformed, or resources company, you know, or into

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Speaker 3: some of the other cyclical industrial businesses. Banks since they

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Speaker 3: done so well, they will be used as funding I

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Speaker 3: don't know if you remember in twenty twenty four, perhaps

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Speaker 3: in November, there was a couple of times or October November,

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Speaker 3: there was a couple of days when the Resources company

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Speaker 3: had a bit of rally because of China stimulus was

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Speaker 3: coming through the day. BHP went up five percent, CBA

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Speaker 3: was down five percent. It's a very clear genation and

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Speaker 3: rotation that you can see. So I think it's very

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Speaker 3: vulnerable to that. Now, putting aside those technical issues for

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Speaker 3: you know, being used as a funding source, you know

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Speaker 3: a little bit, I don't actually think that the CBA

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Speaker 3: shares or the bank shares will collapse, because calling for

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Speaker 3: the collapse of the bank shares really require a collapse

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Speaker 3: of the you know, share market or the economy. I

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Speaker 3: think economy is heading into an easy condition, easy financial

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Speaker 3: condition in the next twelve month, because you know, we

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Speaker 3: have interest rate slowly coming down, whether it's February or May,

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Speaker 3: it's coming through. And then we have the you know,

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Speaker 3: the economy is not doing too badly, so I don't think.

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Speaker 3: I think the fundamental is strong for the share market.

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Speaker 3: So that means that banks will hold these value but

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Speaker 3: maybe it won't go up, you know, I don't think.

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Speaker 3: And you'll get another force if you sayll a fifty

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Speaker 3: percent out of the banks. I think at best they

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Speaker 3: probably do, you know, high single digit sort of return.

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Speaker 3: Even that, I think it's a bit of a struggle.

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Speaker 3: Probably admit to high single digit return. Share market itself though,

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Speaker 3: I think, actually, well looks reasonably strong. It should do

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Speaker 3: better than the banks. And then the leadership, you know,

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Speaker 3: they say who's going to be the best sector? Is

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Speaker 3: going to be something else other than the banks and

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Speaker 3: take them take the market much much higher.

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Speaker 1: So there the consensus is pretty mild, isn't it. For

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Speaker 1: the A six the consensus is that it's going to

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Speaker 1: do four or five percent in the twelve months. Some

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Speaker 1: there's people that are both sides of that and maybe

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Speaker 1: eight nine percent is more like an average year total return. Well,

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Speaker 1: have you a number of yourself in your university, you

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Speaker 1: have a number you're working on.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I would do double digit. I think

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Speaker 3: market condition looks pretty good, you know. I know our

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Speaker 3: market has done well in the last couple of years,

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Speaker 3: you know, all double digit returns, but really coming off

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Speaker 3: you know, a low base, and looking into next year,

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Speaker 3: you know, I do think that our market is actually

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Speaker 3: they call it a cyclic call market. We our resources

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Speaker 3: have yet to perform. Look at the share price performers

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Speaker 3: HV has gone down thirty percent, the CVA has gone

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Speaker 3: up fifty percent. That kind of disparity is very strange,

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Speaker 3: very rare to take place in the share market. So

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Speaker 3: we do think the next year, you know, we have

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Speaker 3: a lot of those bigger, you know, companies that will

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Speaker 3: take the leadership and that will deliver.

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Speaker 2: Return for the market.

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Speaker 3: You know, usually at this point of the market cycle,

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Speaker 3: we do see very good driver because you know, you

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Speaker 3: just have the rate cut, so you have all the

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Speaker 3: businesses that sort of lag behind started catching up. At

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Speaker 3: the same time you have the tech businesses that's already

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Speaker 3: done quite well. But I think because the interest rates

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Speaker 3: coming lower, the evaluation will continue to be supported. So

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Speaker 3: valuation is not a problem. So you know, it's positive

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Speaker 3: for most of the actors going higher.

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Speaker 1: Okay, just to cover off on what actually did occur

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four and which to me, I'm not

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Speaker 1: surprised by the it doing very well. The financials. I am,

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Speaker 1: like everybody else, surprised that people would value the banks

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Speaker 1: so highly because the banks basically were treading water. I mean,

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Speaker 1: with the exception of CBA, the big banks weren't trading

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Speaker 1: water for years and years. But the third strong area

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Speaker 1: was consumer discretionary of twenty six percent. I thought there

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Speaker 1: was supposed to be very weak consumer sentiment out there.

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Speaker 1: What happened there?

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Speaker 2: I know, it's crazy, isn't there?

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Speaker 3: Sometimes from outside and looking in look at the share market,

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Speaker 3: thinking what are those crazy investors doing. We're in the

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Speaker 3: consumer recession, and yet our retailers are hitting all time hi,

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Speaker 3: our JB high fire, others which couldn't give enough of them.

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Speaker 2: Look at what's happening.

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Speaker 3: Is that it goes down to the very cross of

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Speaker 3: the you know, of the share market. Investor git mok

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Speaker 3: investor always look forward twelve months, so we are buying

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Speaker 3: future earnings, so we are sort of looking trying to

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Speaker 3: look through that. You know, if the crystal ball, as

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Speaker 3: say in twelve month, look in twelve month, consumer hopefully

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Speaker 3: will be doing better our interest rate, our interest rate

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Speaker 3: will probably be already on the way down. At the

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Speaker 3: same time, for some of the retailers, you know, your

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Speaker 3: earnings will start to recover from you know, a trough

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Speaker 3: that that's taking place somewhere between now and you know,

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Speaker 3: the next few months, so you know, earnings on the

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Speaker 3: way up. So you know, potentially for retailers, you will

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Speaker 3: be in the Ernie's upgrade cycle because as a consumer

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Speaker 3: comes through, you know, your operating leverage is positive operating leverage,

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Speaker 3: things always turn out to be better they expected.

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Speaker 2: Maybe then they'll have special dividend and all of that.

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Speaker 3: So you're at the beginning of that multi year upgrade

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Speaker 3: cycle for the retailers. So they may look expensive at

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Speaker 3: the moment, but looking forward twelve months, their earnings will grow.

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Speaker 2: Their multiple will you.

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Speaker 3: Know, not multiple expension is actually not multiple expension, it's

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Speaker 3: more Ernie's will grow better than expected, and then with

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Speaker 3: the interest rate, your value will expand. Valuation will expand,

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Speaker 3: so hence why we're all rushing into those Put that aside, though,

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Speaker 3: what are you know? It sounds like the these days,

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Speaker 3: the cyber weekends you know has done, is doing incredibly

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Speaker 3: bigger and bigger every single year.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of optimism.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Black Friday, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah they call they got all the names back Fridays.

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Speaker 1: Cyber Monday, yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's getting bigger and bigger. You know, I

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Speaker 3: myself hit the shops that couldn't it looks like Boxing day,

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Speaker 3: say oh, and just people everywhere. So I the feedback

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Speaker 3: is that incredibly strong every single year. Might be a

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Speaker 3: bit of softness into Christmas, but you know what we

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Speaker 3: think is going to you know, deliver a strong February result,

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Speaker 3: you know, as a result of that for a certain category.

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Speaker 2: Of course, it's got to be selective.

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Speaker 3: You know, the apparel's bit weaker, but electronics, consumer electronics

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Speaker 3: is strong.

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Speaker 2: So this is.

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Speaker 3: What's happening now. Put these cyclical components aside. There is

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Speaker 3: also an undertoe. It's about consumer electronics of the replacement

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Speaker 3: cycle of the AI enabled devices. Now, I think it's

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Speaker 3: still early days, but PC replacement cycle has been running

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Speaker 3: very long dated now, so we're due for a pickup

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Speaker 3: in replacing PC at the same time you got all

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Speaker 3: these new devices coming out with AI. I do think

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Speaker 3: that it's JB hi FI or type enormal or persume

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Speaker 3: electronics space is at the you know, sort of the

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Speaker 3: early stage of that adoption phase which you will drive

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Speaker 3: a lot of growth organic growth of the next five

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Speaker 3: years or so.

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Speaker 1: Okay, dorees the AI. It's the concept behind your thinking

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Speaker 1: that the arrival of the AI devices accelerates the replacement cycle.

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Speaker 3: So the idea is, you know, I think there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of excitement about it, but at this stage we're

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Speaker 3: still waiting for First of all, they're quite expensive, you know,

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Speaker 3: we're waiting for the price deflation to come through. As

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Speaker 3: you know with the consumer electronics products that as the

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Speaker 3: price become cheaper, the adoption increases significantly. So and that's

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Speaker 3: when actually mass market and j be high by these

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Speaker 3: retailers make a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: So the price is still too high.

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Speaker 3: And then I think the product itself at this stage

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Speaker 3: is not yet to steal that differentiated They just added

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Speaker 3: you know, the sering, the talk and everything else, so

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Speaker 3: you still didn't need a bit more so but that's

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Speaker 3: definitely coming through, but it's just going to take a

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Speaker 3: bit more time. That's your Probably next twelve month we'll

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Speaker 3: see more definitive trend and then in the following five

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Speaker 3: years you'll see a lot.

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Speaker 2: More of it.

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Speaker 1: Okay. It reminds me of the sort of golden age

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Speaker 1: of the iPhone when they came through the first time

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Speaker 1: as well. But that's basically the whole promise of the Internet,

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Speaker 1: the promise of the mobile Internet, the singular product. Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: very interesting. Okay, Well, take short break. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment. Hello and welcome back to The Australian's

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Speaker 1: Money Puzzle podcast. I'm James Kirkby. I'm talking to June

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Speaker 1: Bailu who has been on the show before. She's now

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Speaker 1: at ten Capital and she's talking to me and you

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Speaker 1: about Australian stocks in the year. Head and stay with us, folks,

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Speaker 1: because we are if you can think, if you think

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Speaker 1: about it, we are making our way through, right. So

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Speaker 1: we're conceptually getting down through the sectors and then we're

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Speaker 1: going to look at the stocks as much as we can.

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Speaker 1: So before we do that, everything you said, not everything

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Speaker 1: you said, but substantially. What you said in the first

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Speaker 1: segment did depend on the belief, if you like, that

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Speaker 1: interest rates will drop in Australia next year. So that's

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Speaker 1: absolutely crucial, isn't it to the outlooks put forward by you,

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Speaker 1: went by by most of the market. Is it at risk?

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Speaker 2: It is a risk, but it's a very small risk.

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Speaker 3: Look, we have demonstrated, We've seen it again and again

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Speaker 3: for decades. Right our capital flowies are connected globally. We're

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Speaker 3: following very similar trends, even though they might be delays

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Speaker 3: and timing and the like. So clearly, our interest rate

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Speaker 3: never went up as much as the US, and then

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Speaker 3: it took longer. So now going down, it's taking longer

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Speaker 3: to come through as well. And you know, it's may

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Speaker 3: not go go down as much as the US because

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Speaker 3: we never went up that much, so, you know, but

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Speaker 3: it's abound to take place. You know, our inflation number,

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Speaker 3: it's already showing a similar trajectory as the US. But

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Speaker 3: although US is actually gathering more momentum in terms of

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Speaker 3: you know, falling interest rate, Arawan is a little bit

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Speaker 3: more sticky. The latest job number is still looking a

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Speaker 3: little bit too strong for our you know, our RBA.

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Speaker 3: But you know, regardless, we think you know all of

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Speaker 3: these you know, components in motion for a cut. Now

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Speaker 3: the risk or the volatility will come though, is whether

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Speaker 3: it's a February cut or is a you know, makeup.

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Speaker 3: So you know, because the market participate just a few

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Speaker 3: weeks ago or just you know, a month ago, was

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Speaker 3: talking about potentially it's cut in February. If that takes place,

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Speaker 3: you'll see market rally quite aggressively. And now you know

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Speaker 3: the data after the job data, you know, markets pushing

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Speaker 3: it out to.

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Speaker 2: May, you know.

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Speaker 3: So it's really about where the expectation is. So you

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Speaker 3: will see share market go up and down based on

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Speaker 3: the changes in that expectation. But regardless, interest rate will

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Speaker 3: come down. Yeah, as with many other countries.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you are comfortable with that basic trend the

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Speaker 1: abstrates have reached to peak in this cycle fault. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'd like to try and just if I could maybe

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Speaker 1: just go through three sectors with you which are of

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Speaker 1: great interest to all our listeners. So you talked about rotation,

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Speaker 1: the obvious rotation. You know, if you're sitting in London

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Speaker 1: looking at the Australian market, the dead obvious rotation is

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Speaker 1: from banks to big miners php Reo fortce Kew is

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Speaker 1: that the most likely scenario.

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Speaker 2: It's a most likely scenario.

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Speaker 3: And also into industrial, so where we have a bit

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Speaker 3: of industrial sector as well, So that's the most obvious.

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Speaker 3: And then the second one is obviously the large cap

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Speaker 3: to small cap. So as you know, people get more

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Speaker 3: comfortable into the smaller cap companies and most of the

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Speaker 3: small company earnings have really been hurt by.

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Speaker 2: High interest rate.

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Speaker 3: With the interest rate definitively coming down, you should see

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Speaker 3: that earning growth pickups significantly. Remember there are trophlearning and

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Speaker 3: then going to next year the earning will grow significantly.

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Speaker 3: So you know, so I think we will see that

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Speaker 3: clear sort of movement.

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Speaker 2: You know, large cap.

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Speaker 3: Will underperform the small cap. Yeah, so that's going to

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Speaker 3: take place in the next two months.

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Speaker 1: Okay, when you say small cap, but I presume you

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Speaker 1: have a definition. It can't be microcap. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of there's a lot of bad small caps out there

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Speaker 1: as we know. Maybe the majority of them are a

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Speaker 1: bad certainly the majority of them are ordinary in their history.

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Speaker 1: Is what do you how do you approach that sector

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Speaker 1: which is so diverse and so large, roughly two thousand

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Speaker 1: stocks out there, even in Australia.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're absolutely right. Small cap is an index. It's

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Speaker 3: actually full of danger. It's very important to actually stay

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Speaker 3: to quality. You know, there might be the very top

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Speaker 3: tier of the small cap that you often looking at,

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Speaker 3: and you know the minute you go smaller, you required

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Speaker 3: to be very close to the management. Now, the opportunity,

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Speaker 3: I guess in the next twelve month is finding some

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Speaker 3: of those companies a little bit smaller but have been

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Speaker 3: forgotten by investors because whether interest rate too high, whether

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Speaker 3: that you know, it's just that environment that has hurt

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Speaker 3: the share price performance microcab we'd expect that to perform

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Speaker 3: as well in when the small caps started to do better.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of interest they're flowing down into microcabs.

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Speaker 3: So structurally we think that the overall did go smaller,

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Speaker 3: they should do better. Now put one conditional disclaimer in there, though.

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Speaker 3: You remember when we talked about interest rate. We're not

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Speaker 3: sure if it's February or May, and you know that

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Speaker 3: expectations might move, so based on that, the volatility we

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Speaker 3: will see particularly will occur in the small end because

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Speaker 3: these companies are very leveraged to interest rate cut. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so when you start changing that, you know, whether it's

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Speaker 3: may or it makes a big difference to their earnings.

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Speaker 3: So these share prices can move by a low, large,

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Speaker 3: big wave.

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Speaker 1: So yes, so even more volatile than usual with that

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Speaker 1: perception that their day is coming, but we don't quite

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Speaker 1: know when it is because we don't know when the

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Speaker 1: red cuts will come. Okay, So two other sectors. One

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Speaker 1: was healthcare. Now, healthcare has been terribly disappointing, hasn't it.

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Speaker 1: And I know that. I mean at one stage, I

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Speaker 1: think you were quite keen on Ramsey and that's really

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Speaker 1: been a disappointment. The whole area has been a disappointment.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if we could ever recover really as

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Speaker 1: a viable area for listed stock investment. What do you think?

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Speaker 2: I think the healthcare is interesting.

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Speaker 3: It used to be our growth leader, right, so when

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Speaker 3: you want to buy growth company back then, we didn't

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Speaker 3: have a big tech space. We didn't have many tech choices.

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Speaker 3: All we ever do is buy CSL by the large

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Speaker 3: healthcare company. But they have really disappointed our healthcare company.

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Speaker 3: It's partly because of the labor you know, the you know,

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Speaker 3: the inflation first of we had the labor shortage, and

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Speaker 3: healthcare businesses our labor businesses heavy businesses, right, and they

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Speaker 3: really struggled to find people. And now the inflation that's

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Speaker 3: coming through the labor force. Most of those costs actually structural,

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Speaker 3: you know, because there's been a lot of nurses leaving

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Speaker 3: the industry and you know, so they we have found

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Speaker 3: that all of these businesses now really structurally have higher costs.

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Speaker 3: And for a place like private hospitals, actually it structurally

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Speaker 3: cost is higher. You know, unless government can come through

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Speaker 3: try and help in the way. It almost seems unsustainable

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Speaker 3: in the way. But put that aside, I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: healthcare sector is still very defensive sector. It's going to

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Speaker 3: struggle in the environment where you know, risk goes, so

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Speaker 3: where everyone want to go smaller, want to buy companies

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Speaker 3: that more leveraged to the to the upswing in the

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Speaker 3: economic activity. Because remember healthcare doesn't affect get affected by

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Speaker 3: the economic activity. Even economy picks up, people don't go

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Speaker 3: to doctors more. So I think in that environment they

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Speaker 3: sort of status quo. That's right, it's status quo. So

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Speaker 3: you know, the only thing we know is that you know,

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Speaker 3: potentially you have you know Ramsey, what we're hearing things

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Speaker 3: that's been so poor it's actually doing a little bit better.

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Speaker 3: But it's not economically sensitive. It's more of a value

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Speaker 3: stock that's for the long service. Well now resme. On

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Speaker 3: the other hand, we actually think that looks okay, you know,

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Speaker 3: and it's gone through crisis with a GLP what but

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Speaker 3: now it's looking better.

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Speaker 1: Okay, okay, we come to individual's stalks and minute. Let

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Speaker 1: me just do one more sort of sector with you,

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Speaker 1: which is reads property trusts. So it looks as we

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Speaker 1: speak that is the disappointment of the year was in

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Speaker 1: property trusts. Was in Digico. Only two weeks ago people

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Speaker 1: were I have people writing into money Puzzle furious that

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Speaker 1: they didn't get stuck on the float. But now they're

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Speaker 1: probably not furious because they would have lost money as

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Speaker 1: we speak in December. So tell me about property trusts.

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Speaker 1: It seems to me the properly trusts have been skewed.

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Speaker 1: The notion of a property trust has been skewed. We

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Speaker 1: have Digito, which is a play on AI. We have Goodman,

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Speaker 1: which is a play on technology logistics and AI. And

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Speaker 1: properly trusts in the sense of a property landlord. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they really I think to some extent,

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Speaker 1: even the figures for last year, which were reasonable for

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Speaker 1: something of a recovery for a rates in Australia, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's of seventeen percent, which is you know, bany on

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Speaker 1: with the market. Okay, so it did the market no better,

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Speaker 1: no worse. What do you think the outlook is for

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five and does the presence of Digitico and

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Speaker 1: Goodman sort of disturb or mislead us to some degree

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Speaker 1: about property trusts.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a really good question. I do think

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Speaker 3: the property trust will do okay. You know when we

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Speaker 3: start cutting rates. I know they've done reasonably okay, in line.

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Speaker 2: With the market.

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Speaker 3: But once the race does start getting caught, so we

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Speaker 3: will see. What's the main thing is that we will

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Speaker 3: see improvement in the market transaction. One of the biggest

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Speaker 3: thing is that the property a special commercial property. They're

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Speaker 3: not selling and they're not transacting. The buyer don't want

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Speaker 3: to sell at this price, and then you know the

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Speaker 3: seller sorry sell it, or the driser vine. So it's

436
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 3: coming in the middle. So with the rates coming down,

437
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 3: it absolutely make the valuate should stack up. If anything,

438
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 3: we actually still start to see quite a lot of

439
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 3: commercial property market like Cyney is actually improving, you know.

440
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: Quite rapidly.

441
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 3: Then that net absorption is actually very strong in the

442
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 3: Sydney market and Melbourne we've seen early signs of improvement.

443
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: So you know, I do think the property fundamentally will improve.

444
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 3: But there is still a lot of stock sitting in

445
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 3: the private market that we're waiting to be sold. So

446
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 3: you know, we just need the rate cut to come through,

447
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 3: so that will the overall sector looks okay, but it

448
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: has to for investors.

449
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 2: You need to focus on value.

450
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 3: Aside from Goodman that's a different story, but everything else

451
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 3: you've got to focus on value because I do think

452
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 3: the value end of the property market will do better

453
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 3: than the you know, the more expensive part of it.

454
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 2: Goodman Group is different.

455
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: It's almost like you've got you almost have that next

456
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: lego growth of the data centers. So you know, so

457
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 3: a lot of investors we just keep that as part

458
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 3: of our portfolio. It gives that whole data center exposure.

459
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,239
Speaker 3: Great you know, management being running great industrial portfolio and

460
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 3: you know we trust them can do a great job.

461
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 3: And the new the pipeline is coming through is incredible,

462
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 3: so we will keep that in the portfolio.

463
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: Did you go. It's interesting, right, And you're absolutely right.

464
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 2: They trying to structure this deal.

465
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 3: First of all, if the deal was not shown to

466
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: most of the people, most of the institutional manager didn't

467
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 3: really get meetings with men with the management. You know,

468
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: one of the big things for investors to invest money

469
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 3: is that we're going to meet the management. We have

470
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: to you know, get comfort and then so we can invest.

471
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: They want to structure in a way like TUYG, where

472
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 3: it'situtional investor gets zero holding and then give it to

473
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: retail so hopefully there'll be enough you know, interest to

474
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 3: buy them. But when you don't have meetings for an

475
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 3: institutional investor who is going to support the share price

476
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 3: when it was so, I think that's a misstep on

477
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 3: their sides. I think they were very confident it will

478
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 3: get away, but unfortunately this one was overplayed.

479
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 1: Okay, very interesting. Okay, folks, We're going to take a

480
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,719
Speaker 1: short break and we will be back talking about individual stocks.

481
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: It will not be advice, if we won't even be recommendations,

482
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: but it would be individual stocks, which I'm sure it'll

483
00:23:53,800 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 1: be very interested in. Okay, back in the moment, Hello,

484
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: and welcome back to the final segment of our special

485
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: show today on Australian shares. We've been talking about the sectors.

486
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: We've been talking about opportunities and risks coming up in

487
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and now I just want to talk

488
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 1: to Junebilu about specific stocks. Always a tricky area, right,

489
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: but let's talk about them. If we look at the

490
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: four banks, it would seem to me that they are

491
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: all slightly overpriced, and CBA is exceptionally overpriced. I am

492
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: only reporting. I'd be like what Booker analysts are saying, right,

493
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: and they're saying the fair value on Combank is about

494
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars. It's at about one hundred and fifty dollars.

495
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 1: I mean, that's like fifty percent overvalued if that's true,

496
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: and it happens to be the most important stuff probably

497
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: in the market. Right we put BHP to one side.

498
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: It is certainly the most important income stock. So if

499
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: what's your approach to bank stocks this year?

500
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 3: Look, I think the bank stocks that it's very hard

501
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: to hold them at this price, you know, to be honest,

502
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 3: I think when the market, we expect market to be

503
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 3: struggled in twenty twenty five, and that's not going to

504
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: be led by banks, you know, We're going to put

505
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 3: money towards other businesses that share price will go higher

506
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: with the banks itself. You know, CBA traditionally for a

507
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 3: good quality bank should be trading at about seventeen times.

508
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 3: It's trading at twenty eight. Every metric you cannot justify,

509
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 3: you know, So to us, it's very hard to hold

510
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 3: those businesses much rather to put money into something else,

511
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 3: you know, as you know traditionally, so as a fund manager,

512
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 3: our performance is judged against the benchmark, which is for me,

513
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 3: it's ASEX two hundred. So we need to buy companies

514
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 3: that are better than what Airsex two hundred does, and

515
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 3: banks certainly is not going to do that this year.

516
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: Okay, Now let's talk about on the other side that

517
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 1: the miners, I mean, the obvious ones are the big three, Real,

518
00:25:55,840 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: PHP and Force squ very much despite their best efforts

519
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: and all the talk about future facing metals and battery metals,

520
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 1: still very much are in our companies, still very much

521
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: dependent and arn Or still very much dependent on China.

522
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: So to me, that seems may be their obvious rotation,

523
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: but it's there's a risk there. That's a that's more

524
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 1: elevated than perhaps is obvious because it's so focused on

525
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: one metal, which is arn ore, and that metal is

526
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: so focused on the on China's so far on successful

527
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: attempts to restimulate its economy.

528
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, your concern is very much right.

529
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 3: We've seen China tried over the last year and a

530
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 3: half try to stimulate its economy and it hasn't happened.

531
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 3: My view is that, look, give how you know, given

532
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: how much it's underperformed, and China continuously coming up with

533
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 3: new stimulus, they will just keep trying until they get

534
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: it right. So we know, if you're better, if you're

535
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 3: not buying those businesses, you're betting against China not able

536
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 3: to get there, and it's very hard. You know, China

537
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 3: has a lot of you know in reserve and eventually

538
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 3: they'll get there. You're betting against its policy direction in

539
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 3: the old days, and you know you'll lose money. So

540
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 3: my view is that given the value presents of those

541
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 3: big miners, it does look like it's got a very

542
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 3: strong upside from here now. But you're very right, it's

543
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 3: very much depends on if the stimulus can reignite that

544
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 3: consumer confidence that corporates in China, and so I'll take

545
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 3: it for that space. Is that we moving into slowly

546
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 3: moving into larger miners. Don't go to the exotic ones

547
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 3: because these are the ones that don't make money when

548
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: the commodity price is weak. You much rather stay, you know,

549
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 3: with the larger diversified names that BHP real simply because

550
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: they got copper. They got quite a lot of other

551
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 3: commodities which world will need. So, you know, so the

552
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 3: less que to what.

553
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 2: May or may not go right or within China. That's

554
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: how we see it.

555
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 1: We should talk about lithium obviously being such an obvious

556
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: So that's an obvious calamity. It was extraordinary, really, wasn't it.

557
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 1: What happened to the lithium price, which which it fail.

558
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: Look, it just simply comes on down to Initially there

559
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: was a lot of demand going to ev and the

560
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 3: projection for evil production and demand is enormous.

561
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 2: At the same time, lithium was actually even though.

562
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 3: It's found everywhere in the world, but it's actually very

563
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 3: difficult to pull it out. So we had a couple

564
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 3: of company try very hard to pull it out. Meanwhile,

565
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 3: there's this supply and demand, so there's just not enough

566
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 3: lithium for the production of the battery and going into

567
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 3: the EV. And then since then we had a lot

568
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: of production coming through with seeing Australian companies of shore

569
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 3: companies with a lot of lithium production come through, and

570
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 3: at the same time, demand for EV actually hasn't grown

571
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 3: as much as we expected, you know, the instead of

572
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 3: growing EV, it's so the usage for hybrid you know,

573
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 3: for the battery is less than what we expect. So

574
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 3: hence why we started having that sort of collapse in

575
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 3: the lithium market.

576
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: Now where we are.

577
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 3: At the moment, lithium price even though it looks like

578
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 3: it that has found the bottom, but we're still having

579
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 3: supply you know, coming on at this price, which is

580
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 3: a concern because you want to see supply pulling the

581
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: pulling the supply at this price so that means, you know,

582
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 3: the price will go higher and that means everyone can

583
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 3: make a bit more money for those lithium producers, and

584
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: it's not happening at the moment.

585
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 2: Demand side. China's actually doing okay.

586
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 3: It's European market, it's actually pretty tough for the evs

587
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 3: you know, sell through. So I think that market is

588
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 3: still very tough for you. Look at the list of

589
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: lithium companies. If you put today's spot rate lithium into

590
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: their ship into the earnings, they still come down grade.

591
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 3: Ernie still come down grade quite a big way. Whereas

592
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 3: you compare to the iron ore miners you put today's price,

593
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 3: they actually come upgrade. I think in the case of

594
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 3: Bullski it's come upgrade thirty forty percent in terms of earning.

595
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: So I think you want to sit in a company

596
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 3: where Ernie's going to get upgraded then downgraded.

597
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: Right, okay, And that test you towards the big miners

598
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: at this point, the big diversified miners. Okay. I was

599
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: looking at something. I was just thinking about the private

600
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: equity boom and how they come in and they cherry

601
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: pick our market. And I was looking at Bain Capital,

602
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: which has now bought Virgin Alliance. It has bought in

603
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: Synia the old IF financial services group, and so it

604
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: comes in and it picks off these kind and it

605
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: bought STA Care Services. That's so diverse, isn't it? If

606
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: you were But that's a big time stock picking. Can

607
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 1: you tell us some of that? It doesn't matter in

608
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: sector agnostic? Are there certain stocks that you are particularly

609
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: enthusiastic about this year.

610
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 3: And look, I think there are many companies who we

611
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 3: always be in a portfolio with a bit of everything.

612
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: So we've got a bit of growth company. So Premedicus

613
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 3: will be our top pick within that name. You know,

614
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 3: we think every portfolio should have one, and that's around

615
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 3: for Medicus. Every portfolio you have one, and that just

616
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 3: it's one of those companies you keep in your bottom

617
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 3: drawer and let a compound for you over the year

618
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 3: after year. And then we think other parts of portfolio

619
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: you might have a bit of value, you know, something

620
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: that might come through, you know in senior as you

621
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: talk to. We thought that was a value stop for us.

622
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: And now ban is bidding for the business. That share

623
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 3: price done very well. There's another one we really like,

624
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 3: which is Treasury, why we actually liked for quite some

625
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 3: time and now unfortunately the share price hasn't worked because

626
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: you know, whenever investor here about China China exposure, don't

627
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 3: want to invest in it. But the company business itself

628
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 3: is doing quite well. And remember they had the tariff

629
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: removed from them not very long ago, probably you know,

630
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 3: six eight months ago, and they just started going back

631
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 3: into China is selling very well. So you know that

632
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 3: business training on less than twenty times less than twenty

633
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 3: CBA twenty eight and it's going to growth that boudigit

634
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 3: and it's got a luxury brand, which is the pen Fall.

635
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 3: You know, it's actually just sitting there looking extremely attractive

636
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: to those private equity players, you know, and our view

637
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 3: is that's not going to sit.

638
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: Here for very long.

639
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: They had a bid some years ago, didn't they treasure once?

640
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, and there's been a lot of interest

641
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: in the market for this business.

642
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: Okay, can I just run through a couple of quick

643
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: ones with you CSL. In fact, CSL has been pretty

644
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: disappointing for quite a long time now. There's virtually no dividend.

645
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: The share price has really been drifting for I don't

646
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: know two years. Do you think this year is there

647
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: any prospect that it will return to the stock it

648
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: was really.

649
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: I think it will be a mid range stock now.

650
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 3: It's not going to be the market leader in growth

651
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: because now we have YCE Tech zero, we have the

652
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: new contenders to be the leader in growth where CSL.

653
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 3: The challenge is because it you know, cyclically it would

654
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 3: do double digit growth for the next couple of years

655
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: because earning was depressed because of high you know, difficult

656
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 3: to clip blood and you know all that COVID impact

657
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 3: And now next couple of years looks good, but that's

658
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 3: cyclical recovery.

659
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 2: Beyond that, for.

660
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 3: A growth company, you need more structural taiale with they

661
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 3: haven't got the next product, then the B four purchase

662
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: haven't demonstrated it's the next leg of growth. So we

663
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 3: kind of just have a bit more uncertainty of what's

664
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 3: beyond in the next you know, beyond three years.

665
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: Okay, yes, they had some disappointing products which determinate basically

666
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: or they didn't go ahead with Yes, all right, now

667
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: we should just cover the bases here. Traditionally people would

668
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 1: always have had the big retailers. We did talk about

669
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: consumer statements. I was interested how enthusiastic you were, even

670
00:32:55,920 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 1: knowing that consumers discretion had gone off by twenty five

671
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: percent or so last year. You think there's a lot

672
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: of energy yet in that spaces there are particular stocks

673
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: that shine for you. Yeah.

674
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I think there's a lot of energy into that space.

675
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: In fact, I think investors should buy on the dip

676
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: for any of those companies look good quality ones. We

677
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 3: like JBHII into this environment. We like the smaller some

678
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 3: of the smaller cab retailers, you know, we like flight Center,

679
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: you know, we like Axteller, we like Nick Scally.

680
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 1: You know.

681
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 3: I think that a lot of those businesses represent Preaty

682
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 3: coage earnings upgrade cycle.

683
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 2: You know, should we headed into this environment?

684
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, very good. I'm sure people are taking

685
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: loads of notes, and I would say listeners that though

686
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 1: we're talking to an exceptional fund manager, it is one

687
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: fund manager's view and nobody knows the future. But it's

688
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: been a terrific distillation. And very good of you to

689
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: come on the show and I give your outlook on stocks,

690
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: because not everybody is brave enough to actually name stocks

691
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: one by one, and often you're straining to get someone

692
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: to even mention one. So terrific. And thank you of

693
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: look with your new venture in the year ahead.

694
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 3: Thank you so much, Thank you for having me. I

695
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: always love to talk about stock anytime with great to.

696
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 1: Have you on this show. And that was June Belu

697
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,280
Speaker 1: from ten Capital Folks. Ten Capital, that is her new outfit.

698
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: She is a fund manager which has its branching out

699
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: on her own in her own units this year twenty

700
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 1: twenty five. And we do wish you the very best,

701
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 1: and we wish you the very best. And I hope

702
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: that was very useful to you. I'm sure it was.

703
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: I found it particularly interesting. Okay, we'll be back and

704
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: be talking to you in the next part of the

705
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: series in a couple of days