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Speaker 1: Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where we take your

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Speaker 1: questions and do our very best to answer them. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good afternoon, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Michael Sewan.

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Speaker 1: Great question today. It has come in from Ryan who

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Speaker 1: has sent it in via the website. He went to

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au. You can also do it

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Speaker 1: via any of the social media platforms, but he went

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Speaker 1: to the website and he says, hey, guys, love your show,

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Speaker 1: been listening daily for the past couple of years. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Ryan, I wanted to submit a question

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Speaker 1: to you guys. As you know, the Aussie dollar has

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Speaker 1: been going down, losing the time he sent this in

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Speaker 1: around ten percent since the start of October, and now

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Speaker 1: with oil prices going up the past month, does this

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Speaker 1: have a double whammy at the bowser because we purchase

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Speaker 1: oil in US dollars? I mean he also adds a

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Speaker 1: little ps to the bottom of this. Ryan does say,

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Speaker 1: probably shouldn't mention I drive an EV so it doesn't

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Speaker 1: really affect me. Is just it's kind of more voyeuristic,

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Speaker 1: isn't it Just watching everyone else fill up and wondering

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Speaker 1: why they're paying more. What are you reckon, Sean, Well, yes.

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Speaker 2: Part of his question, which Michael you dropped out is

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Speaker 2: he was talking about the aud against the usd really

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Speaker 2: important that because it has fallen ten percent against the

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Speaker 2: US dollar, not anywhere near as much against the euro

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Speaker 2: or the yen. The short answer is yeap. Oil prices

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Speaker 2: going up pushes up petrol prices. The Australian dollar going

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Speaker 2: down against the US dollar pushes up petrol prices both together. Well, Ryan,

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Speaker 2: well done for driving an av Bad news for the

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Speaker 2: rest of us who use petrol or diesel. When in

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Speaker 2: our show we always talk about Brent Kruhn as a

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Speaker 2: global indicator for oil prices, we probably should be talking

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Speaker 2: about Singaporean petrol prices. It's something called mogas ninety five,

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Speaker 2: So there's avgas, aviation fuel, aviation gas, mow gas is

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Speaker 2: motor gas. And what our petrol station's price off is

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Speaker 2: The Singaporean mogas ninety five petrol price kind of interesting

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Speaker 2: if you go to the Australian Institute of Petroleum website.

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Speaker 1: Which I do regularly, always, yep.

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Speaker 2: Always, they said the wholesale price last week on average

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Speaker 2: was one hundred and sixty nine point six cents. Izzi sense,

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Speaker 2: the average retail price is one hundred and eighty point

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Speaker 2: five cents. Therefore, you want to know how much your

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Speaker 2: petrol station is making on per liter. Well, on average

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Speaker 2: last week that was eleven cents. That's not pure profit

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Speaker 2: because remember, if you have a petrol station, you've got

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Speaker 2: a kind of the cost of actually getting the petrol

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Speaker 2: in and filling up your tanks and marketing your product,

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Speaker 2: running a service station, all that sort of stuff. So

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Speaker 2: it's way less than eleven cents.

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Speaker 1: It's not a huge profit margin, and is it. Now

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Speaker 1: you can see why a lot of the petrol stations

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Speaker 1: really push the other things, the food and all of

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Speaker 1: the convenience side of it.

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Speaker 2: In fact, broadly, if you look at petrol stations, production

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Speaker 2: costs of what they're selling, the petrol is about fifty percent.

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Speaker 2: Taxes are about thirty five percent. There's also a bunch

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Speaker 2: of other costs like insurance, warfage because they come via

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Speaker 2: ship's administration marketing. So you're right, it's actually not much

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Speaker 2: of a profit margin. They rely big time on scale

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Speaker 2: on volume. The short answer to Ryan's question is, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you're right. If you really want to know what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen. Look at the Singaporean price and there's about

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Speaker 2: a one to two week lag from the Singaporean price

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Speaker 2: to what we are paying in petrol. And that's from

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Speaker 2: the ahable C has said that, as has the Australianstitute

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Speaker 2: of Petroleum. So maybe we'll start talking about the Singaporean

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Speaker 2: price because that actually does say in a week's time,

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Speaker 2: two weeks time, this is what's going to happen a

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Speaker 2: petrol prices diesel. For those fools who use diesel, Michael, it.

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Speaker 1: Feels very personal Sewan, knowing that I do drive a

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Speaker 1: four wheel drive that requires diesel, and I'm constantly asking

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Speaker 1: you more about diesel price, about the petrol price book, Please.

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Speaker 2: Go on broadly the same girl. I mean, the diesel

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Speaker 2: and petrol both made from petroleum. They're both internal combustion engines.

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Speaker 2: They just burn differently, so it's the same story. So

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Speaker 2: maybe what we will do, thanks to Ryan, is start

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Speaker 2: talking about the Singaporean price No. Guest ninety five and

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Speaker 2: that is better predictor what's going to happen to petrol prices.

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Speaker 1: I would love to know, though, why there is the

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Speaker 1: lag between petrol and diesel prices, because often you kind

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Speaker 1: of see petrol spike and diesel stays low, and then

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Speaker 1: about two weeks later diesel is suddenly climbing. Why there

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Speaker 1: is this kind of delayed effect between kind of diesel

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Speaker 1: and petrol prices, which may be an ask fear and

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Speaker 1: greed for another time. So if you ever have a

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Speaker 1: question that's coming from Michael, that's it.

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Speaker 2: That's it?

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Speaker 1: Is it for me?

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Speaker 2: I hope you don't, because I have looked at this,

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Speaker 2: and people that I know have been chief economists and

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Speaker 2: investment banks have looked at this, and it is still

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Speaker 2: a black box. Rible seas looked at it. It's really

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Speaker 2: really difficult. The actual sea says it's actually quite a

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Speaker 2: competitive market. And for example, they say on public holidays

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Speaker 2: petrol prices aren't put up, Like every time I'm driving

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Speaker 2: on public holiday, I think, well price petrol sigh. Well,

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Speaker 2: they've actually looked at it and said now they ain't

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Speaker 2: go up on public holidays for example, the actual see here.

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Speaker 2: So it's a really difficult area to follow.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, look, I think you know what I reckon

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Speaker 1: for our first ask fear and greed back in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Not bad, I would say a plus Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a conservative Mark.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I don't want know. I I think

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Speaker 2: today being a trumpion day, given the president was inaugurated

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Speaker 2: this morning, I think that we are excellent.

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Speaker 1: It's the best ever, best ever, last ever, Ask Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed ever. Yeah, all right, Look, thank you very

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Speaker 1: much Ryan for sending in your question, and thank you

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Speaker 1: Sean for answering it.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael. Thanks Ryan.

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Speaker 1: Remember, if you have something that you would like to know,

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Speaker 1: if you'd like to try and stump Shawan, then please

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Speaker 1: send through your question on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, or at

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Speaker 1: Fearandgreed dot com dot au by Michael Thompson. And this

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Speaker 1: is Ask Fear and Greed