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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed business News you can use.

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Speaker 1: Around two point six million workers will receive three point

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Speaker 1: five percent more in their paypacket, pushing up real wages.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank warns about Donald Trump's tariffs, and AI

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Speaker 1: takes center stage for major companies. Plus there is still

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Speaker 1: an undecided seat from the federal election, and a truck

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Speaker 1: crash releases fourteen million bees. It's Wednesday, the fourth of

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Speaker 1: June twenty twenty five am. Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael. Something for everyone this morning.

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Speaker 1: The bees kind of came out of nowhere there did well?

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Speaker 2: They did literally?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, Now sean quick mention of the newsletter, the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Newsletter, which has been going gangbusters lately.

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Speaker 1: It is in your inbox every morning, every weekday morning

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Speaker 1: by six am. If you haven't signed up, do it today.

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Speaker 1: Head along to Fearandgreed dot com dot au. Pop your

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Speaker 1: email addressing. I'll put a link in today's show notes.

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Speaker 1: Takes about three minutes to read, and you will arrive

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Speaker 1: at work better prepared for the day. Now on with

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Speaker 1: the show. Getting that done really quickly.

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Speaker 2: These days, very efficient bit like reading the newsletter, Michael,

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Speaker 2: very efficient way to consume news.

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Speaker 1: Oh well played the main story this morning, Sean. The

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Speaker 1: Fair Work Commission has granted a three point five percent

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Speaker 1: increase in minimum and related award wages, which directly and

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Speaker 1: indirectly affects millions of workers.

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Speaker 2: That's right. These three and a half percent increase will

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Speaker 2: kick in on one July and affect more than one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty modern awards which employees are paid under.

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Speaker 2: The decision directly impacts around twenty one percent of all employees,

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Speaker 2: but it also sets a benchmark for millions of others.

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Speaker 2: Those directly impacted are predominantly part time workers and female.

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Speaker 2: Now about half a casual employees and a disproportionate amount

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Speaker 2: are low paid or work for small businesses. Industries most

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Speaker 2: effective the coommodation, food services, healthcare, retail, administrative and support services.

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Speaker 2: The AICT you had asked for four and a half

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Speaker 2: percent rise, industry groups were pushing for two and a

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Speaker 2: half percent. The outcome three and a half percent, smack

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Speaker 2: bang in the middle. Given inflation is sitting at two

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Speaker 2: point four percent. Workers will finally receive a real increase

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Speaker 2: in wages, meaning they can afford to buy more goods

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Speaker 2: and services with their take home pay. It's a thirty

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Speaker 2: two dollars a week increase, one of the largest above

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Speaker 2: inflation increases ever awarded. It'll lift the national minimum wage

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Speaker 2: to just under twenty five dollars an hour. That's nine

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty eight dollars a week.

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Speaker 1: What's the flow on effect of this, sean, because you

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Speaker 1: talk about the fact that this is affecting millions of people,

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Speaker 1: what are the economic implications of the decision.

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Speaker 2: So the big issue when we have these decisions is

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Speaker 2: something called the wage price spiral. The idea if wages

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Speaker 2: increase too much, then small business lawyers will up prices

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Speaker 2: to pay for those wages. That's always the issue. Economists

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Speaker 2: generally think that this particular increase three and a half

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Speaker 2: percent is about right. It won't trigger higher inflation. Now.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty four the increase was three points sevent

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, it was five point seventy five percent.

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Speaker 2: They were both consistent with higher inflation then and they

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Speaker 2: didn't trigger a wage price spiral. This three and a

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Speaker 2: half percent obviously lower than the last two years, so

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Speaker 2: plenty of confidence about that. While the decision directly effects

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Speaker 2: about twenty one percent of the workforce. Most of them

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Speaker 2: are low paid. They tend to spend the money they

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Speaker 2: get and that's why it is a real boost to

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Speaker 2: the economy. The other interesting fact might be twenty one

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Speaker 2: percent of the workforce, but it's just eleven percent of

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Speaker 2: the national wages bill because they are low paid. But

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Speaker 2: if we're going to give money to people that need it,

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Speaker 2: such as low paid workers, this is a great way

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Speaker 2: to do it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Sean the Reserve Bank plenty of news out of

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank yesterday. The RBA is worried about the

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Speaker 1: on again, off again Donald Trump tariffs, saying that it

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Speaker 1: could actually prompt consumers to rain in spending and force

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Speaker 1: businesses to shelve hiring and investment planned.

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank of Australia Chief economist Sarah Hunter says it's

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Speaker 2: possible an escalation in the trade war or a deterioration

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Speaker 2: in the global economy could end up with a fresh

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Speaker 2: sell off in financial markets, particularly equity markets. She warns

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Speaker 2: that households and businesses are likely to become more cautious

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Speaker 2: as a result of Donald Trump's tariff threats. She was

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Speaker 2: talking yesterday just as the minutes of the Reserve Bank's

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Speaker 2: Board meeting of two weeks ago were released. Interestingly, in

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Speaker 2: those minutes, the RBA considered a zero point five percentage

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Speaker 2: point rate cut last month amid fees around these tariffs.

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Speaker 2: They also said that if tariffs are raised, then more

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Speaker 2: rate cuts are likely. So for those betting on more

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Speaker 2: rate cuts later in the year, yesterday minutes and the

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Speaker 2: comments from Sarah Hunter pretty much supports that argument.

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Speaker 1: Okay, taking a quick look at politics now, Sean, there's

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Speaker 1: still one seat undecided from the federal election which was

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Speaker 1: a month ago. Now Bradfield in Northern Sydney is very

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Speaker 1: very tight.

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Speaker 2: So about eighty five percent of the vote or the

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Speaker 2: recount has been done. Independent Nicolette Bowl is currently twenty

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Speaker 2: seven votes ahead of Liberal Gizell Capterian. Now remember after

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Speaker 2: the original count Gizell Capterian was eight votes in front

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Speaker 2: of Nicolett Bowl. Incredibly close. We hope to find out,

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Speaker 2: possibly tomorrow, who wins that seat of Bradfield. Of course,

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Speaker 2: it is a blue ribbon Liberal seat, has been for

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Speaker 2: years no longer. The other big news in federal politics

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Speaker 2: Derinda Cox, the Senator from Western Australia from the Greens

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Speaker 2: has defected to Labor Now. Anthony Alberanezi was talking about

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Speaker 2: it yesterday. He said that that defection shouldn't effect negotiations

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Speaker 2: between the two parties, particularly on the three million dollars

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Speaker 2: superannuation tax and other bills in Senate. He then went

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Speaker 2: on to sort of slap the Greens, suggesting that Drinder

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Speaker 2: Cox came across because the Greens party isn't in order,

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Speaker 2: so you know, on one hand, he said, we're still friends.

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Speaker 2: On the other he gave him a kick. However, big

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Speaker 2: news in terms of Drinder Cocks affecting.

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Speaker 1: It's always a slightly controversial decision whenever a senator defects

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Speaker 1: from one party to another, particularly halfway through a six

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Speaker 1: year term, because it essentially shifts the votes that have

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Speaker 1: elected that person from one party to another. And so

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Speaker 1: there's always a controversial one and always plenty of people

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Speaker 1: having that say about that one. Sean will take a

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Speaker 1: quick break before we do that. Tomorrow night is the

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Speaker 1: big event, first ever Fear and Greed Live podcast, our

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Speaker 1: live recording of the weekend edition. There are just a

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Speaker 1: couple of dozen tickets left available. We have we nearly

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Speaker 1: have a full house. It is going to be a

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Speaker 1: cracker of a night. It is free. If you're in

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Speaker 1: Sydney and you'd like to come along, then please do it.

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Speaker 1: Doubles with the launch of my new novel called All

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Speaker 1: the Perfect Days, which hit the shelves yesterday, and we're

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Speaker 1: going to have a really good time and we have

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Speaker 1: plenty of people that are great to meet as many

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Speaker 1: listeners as we possibly can, right absolutely, we want everyone

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Speaker 1: that wants to come please do. Not only do you

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Speaker 1: get to listen to the weekend edition, you get to

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Speaker 1: hear me interview Michael about his book, which I'm really

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Speaker 1: looking forward to it. It'd be good fun. There is

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Speaker 1: a link in today's show notes if you would like

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Speaker 1: to book a free ticket. You can also find it

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Speaker 1: on event bright. All right, quick Breakshawan. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: There's been a major AI conference on with many CEOs

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Speaker 1: talking about the prospect of changes to major organizations on

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Speaker 1: the back of the technology.

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Speaker 2: It's been really interesting. The Australian Financial Review is hosting

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Speaker 2: the conference. Some of the highlights. Sun Court Group's Chief

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Speaker 2: Information Officer Adam Bennett said AI tools help the Brison

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Speaker 2: based ensure process thousands of claims around seven thousand after

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Speaker 2: the cyclone. After Cyclone Alfred wiped out power for thousands

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Speaker 2: of customers across the southeast corner of Queensland, Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: boss Matt common He said the battle for AI talent

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Speaker 2: is really hot now. Recently Westpac poached CBA's head of AI.

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Speaker 2: Telstra boss Vicky Brady was there. She says she expects

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Speaker 2: the telco's workforce will be smaller thanks to the impact

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Speaker 2: of AI, though she didn't exactly define how many jobs

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Speaker 2: will go. The point of the story it is clear

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Speaker 2: that the leaders of big corporates in Australia are very

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Speaker 2: focused on how AI can make their businesses more efficient.

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Speaker 1: Now that's certainly pretty blunt, isn't it About the impact

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Speaker 1: on jobs, The fact that you got to the Telstra

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Speaker 1: boss saying this is going to affect the workforce? Yep,

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Speaker 1: absolutely Now, the value of Australia's agricultural production as forecast

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Speaker 1: to be the third highest on record in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five twenty twenty six, but output outcomes resting on a

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Speaker 1: knife edge. That's a direct quote. In regions most susceptible

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Speaker 1: to rainfall.

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Speaker 2: Research from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics

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Speaker 2: and Sciences forecast the total output across next financial year

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Speaker 2: will hit ninety seven and a half billion dollars. That

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Speaker 2: includes fisheries and forestries. A Bear's warns. While seasonal conditions

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Speaker 2: across some areas have prompted a strong start to the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five twenty six wind cropping season, output in

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Speaker 2: other areas where winter crop's been dry so in places

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Speaker 2: like South Australia, Western Victoria southern New South Wales are

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Speaker 2: very susceptible to rainfall. ABAR said export values were expected

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Speaker 2: to fall by two point six billion dollars given lower

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Speaker 2: livestock and crop export volumes.

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Speaker 1: How about this one Sean Shares in IDP Education fell

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Speaker 1: by forty seven percent yesterday after the company said it

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Speaker 1: expected student placements to drop by up to thirty percent

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Speaker 1: this year as global trade uncertainty hurts its enrollment pipeline.

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Speaker 2: This was a share market daling for about six or

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Speaker 2: seven years. It went through the roof. Then there were

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Speaker 2: legislative changes in Australia and the UK, two of its

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Speaker 2: big markets, that really hurt its outlook. That the company

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Speaker 2: downgraded its earnings guidance yesterday for this financial year, announced

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Speaker 2: a firm wide review to improve productivity and costs. Company

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Speaker 2: used to be partly owned by the universities and seek.

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Speaker 2: It is still a preferred provider for English testing and

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Speaker 2: student placement. It's basically what it does. It teaches English

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Speaker 2: to many students. And when we had lots of students

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Speaker 2: coming over from places like Japan, India, China, IDP was

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Speaker 2: doing very well. That has slowed. Plus these legislative changes

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Speaker 2: has really hit the company forty seven percent one day. Ouch.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is a bad day for IDP education. What

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Speaker 1: about the rest of the local market.

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Speaker 2: The Australian share market rose zero point seven percent to

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Speaker 2: eighty four hundred and sixty seven points. The big banks

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Speaker 2: led away plenty of corporate news around more interesting ones.

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Speaker 2: Treasury Wine Estates fell after downgrading its earnings guidance, pointing

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Speaker 2: to lower than expected shipments. The Penfoles owner also said

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Speaker 2: one of its United States based distributors will cease operations

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Speaker 2: in California from September now. Treasury spent about two billion

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Speaker 2: dollars in recent years buying premium wine brands, most of

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Speaker 2: which is in the US, so the loss of that

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Speaker 2: distributor is bad news. The other one of fall, Domino's

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Speaker 2: fell after announcing a bunch of leadership changes within its

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Speaker 2: Japanese business.

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Speaker 1: And plenty going on in global markets too.

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Speaker 2: There is The Australian dollar was helped by weakness in

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Speaker 2: the US dollar as expectations for further interest rate cuts

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Speaker 2: and fears around the economic impact of US trade policy

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Speaker 2: hit the Green Bay OSI dollars buying just under sixty

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Speaker 2: five US cents. Gold jumped as investors look for safeer

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Speaker 2: assets after the US and China traded accusations. The prospect

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Speaker 2: of peace between Russia and Ukraine looks distant. That's helping

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Speaker 2: save for assets goals up twenty eight percent this year

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Speaker 2: after hitting a record high above the twenty five hundred

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Speaker 2: US dollars and ounce in April. And oil also climbed

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Speaker 2: after Opek plus increased production less than some had feared,

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Speaker 2: and geopolitical concerns flared in Ukraine and Iran turn.

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Speaker 1: Into international news. Sean and the story that we're all

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Speaker 1: waiting five. I've certainly been waiting for it. Millions of

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Speaker 1: bees escaped from an overturned truck in the US state

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Speaker 1: of Washington over the weekend, sparking warnings from authorities for

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Speaker 1: the public to avoid the swarm. You could probably hear

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Speaker 1: it from a mile imagine.

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Speaker 2: Emergency officials were helped by several master bee keepers. I

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Speaker 2: love that as a job title, A master.

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Speaker 1: A new life goal.

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Speaker 2: After the truck, which had been hauling roughy thirty two

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Speaker 2: thousand kilos of active honey bee hives, flipped over on

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Speaker 2: a road near the Canadian border, the goal immediately came

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Speaker 2: with the truck driver was oka, first, number one, second,

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Speaker 2: that's good goal, save as many bees as possible. The

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Speaker 2: County Sheriff's office initially said about two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: million two hundred and fifty million bees were loose, though

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Speaker 2: they downgraded that to closer to fourteen million bees. Still

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Speaker 2: a lot. The plan.

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Speaker 1: Hang on, hang on, hang on. They downgraded it from

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty million bees down to fourteen million bees.

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Speaker 1: So the other what two hundred and thirty six weren't

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Speaker 1: in the truck in the first I don't safe, I

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Speaker 1: don't ask me details, I do not know, I do

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Speaker 1: not know.

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Speaker 2: Sorry. The plan is to allow the bees to rehive

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Speaker 2: and find their queen bee which authorities reckon will take

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Speaker 2: kind of a day, two days, according to the BBC.

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Speaker 2: I think that's in itself pretty cool, is that there's

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Speaker 2: an accident, they get straight off course, but they will

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Speaker 2: find their queen bee. Now, basically bee keepers produce honey obviously,

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Speaker 2: but they're always rent Bees are often rented out to

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Speaker 2: farmers who need the insects to pollinate their crops. And

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Speaker 2: that's what this was going. Thirty two thousand kilas of

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Speaker 2: active honeybee hives. Let's hope they've all found their queen bee.

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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, Like you can just imagine the operation to

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Speaker 1: kind of capture them all. You'd have to set up

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Speaker 1: a massive sting.

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Speaker 2: Ah. Oh that really hurts.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't my best, was it.

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Speaker 2: Okay?

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Speaker 1: Moving on, Sean your interview coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: This is a cracker. I love this one because I

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Speaker 1: love anything about technology, and this is one that actually

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Speaker 1: has the potential to change. I don't want to overstate

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Speaker 1: it change the world, right, David Hoey.

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Speaker 2: Is the bottom I overstated it's got the potential to

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Speaker 2: change the world. It's an interesting go on, great chat.

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Speaker 1: David Hoey is the boss of Vaxes and this has

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Speaker 1: the technology that we're talking about here can revolutionize the

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Speaker 1: way humunizations are delivered around the world, and particularly in

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Speaker 1: poorer countries where they don't have refrigeration, and it could

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Speaker 1: save so many lives. So I'm very excited. I've mean

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Speaker 1: is it's a great interview.

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Speaker 2: So it's needle free vaccinations and as you said, one

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Speaker 2: of the big benefits is that it doesn't need to

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Speaker 2: be refrigerated, so vaccinations can be shared and heurled much easier. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: they're in early stage trials, we're not there yet, but

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Speaker 2: it's a great chat with David about where they're up to.

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Speaker 2: And I totally agree. It's one of my favorite chats

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Speaker 2: because it puts me totally ont of my comfort zone

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Speaker 2: talking about stuff I know nothing about and he just

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Speaker 2: explains it so well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I might have gotten a little bit too excited

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Speaker 1: too early, but it is a good chat. And Vaxis works.

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Speaker 1: They do a lot of this development of their product

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Speaker 1: in Brisbane and we partner with the Brisbane Economic Development

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Speaker 1: Agency to talk to some of these companies. It is

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Speaker 1: a great conversation. It is coming up after the show,

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Speaker 1: so stick around for that one. Thanks very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Michael, it's.

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Speaker 1: Wednesday, the fourth of June twenty twenty five. I feel

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Speaker 1: like I've got taken by surprise by the end of

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Speaker 1: the show.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Fear and Breed with the ether Agrade Day