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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed X Tropical Cyclone Alfred causes flooding,

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Speaker 1: damage to infrastructure and a multi billion dollar cleanup bill.

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Speaker 1: Labour's landslide and the WA election gives fresh hope for

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister, and why banking stocks are having a

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Speaker 1: hard time of it, Plus the latest auction results and

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Speaker 1: some good and bad news for Elon Musk's SpaceX. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Monday, the tenth of

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Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Adam Lange.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Adam.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning X Tropical Cyclone Alfred has

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Speaker 1: left a trail of destruction across southeast Queensland and northern

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Speaker 1: New South Wales, causing widespread flooding, power outages extensive damage

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Speaker 1: to infrastructure. It has been downgraded to a tropical low,

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Speaker 1: but it made landfall between Brisbane and Maruchidor on Saturday night,

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Speaker 1: unleashing winds of nearly one hundred kilometers per hour and

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Speaker 1: an extraordinary amount of rain.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael, there's a lot in this and the crisis

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Speaker 2: is not over yet more than three hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: thousand Queensland properties were without power after the storm hit.

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Speaker 2: Rainfall in some areas was tipped to be as high

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Speaker 2: as four hundred millimeters. Harvey Bay on Queensland's Fraser Coast,

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Speaker 2: for instance, has two hundred and thirty millimeters in just

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Speaker 2: six hours and that caused flash flooding. Thankfully Lizmore. In all, then,

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Speaker 2: New South Wales appears to have avoided a repeat of

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Speaker 2: the devastating floods in the city that they experienced in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, but low lying communities on other rivers

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Speaker 2: in the area remain at risk. The New South Wales

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Speaker 2: sees has already received around five thousand incident reports since

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Speaker 2: the beginning of the storm, with dozens of flood rescues

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Speaker 2: across the northern rivers. One man died in floodwaters on

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Speaker 2: Friday evening.

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Speaker 1: And Adam there were two Australian Defense Force trucks involved

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Speaker 1: in a serious accident while helping to clear roads in

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Speaker 1: flood affected air areas near this more thirty two soldiers

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Speaker 1: were on board the trucks. One of the vehicles veered

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Speaker 1: off the road and the other overturned trying to avoid it.

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Speaker 1: Thirteen soldiers were injured and six were in a serious condition.

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Speaker 1: So it just shows that these are the storm isn't

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Speaker 1: just focused on those coastal areas. There are just impacts

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Speaker 1: all over the place.

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Speaker 2: That's right, Michael. It's just another element of the tragedy. Clearly,

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Speaker 2: the emergency isn't over, but attention is already turning to

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Speaker 2: the cleanup. The damage bill for the Gold Coast alone

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Speaker 2: is expected to be in the billions of dollars, with

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Speaker 2: trees uprooted, powerpoles snapped, and roofs missing after the storm.

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Speaker 2: Gold Coast beaches have been severely eroded, with sand cliffs

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Speaker 2: up to six meters high and extensive damage to beachside infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, some of the pictures that you see coming out

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Speaker 1: of these areas, and these are iconic beaches and there's

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Speaker 1: just this wall of sand where the beaches has been

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Speaker 1: carved away by those pounding waves. That the huge kind

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Speaker 1: of storm surgeres has been really a very very frightening

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Speaker 1: period for everybody in those areas. And so we're just

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Speaker 1: hoping that now, even though there is still a lot

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Speaker 1: of rain and that the crisis is continuing, that hopefully

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Speaker 1: we are past the worst of it now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael, the power of this thing is incredible.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, extraordinary. Now turning to local markets, Adam, it was

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Speaker 1: a pretty ordinary day on the market on Friday. Investors

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Speaker 1: it seems like they are getting a little bit sick

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Speaker 1: and tired of the on again, off again tariff wars,

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Speaker 1: and that is probably unsurprising.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael, will they won't they? Right? So, the local

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Speaker 2: share market tumbled nearly two percent on Friday, closing at

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Speaker 2: nine hundred and forty eight points. That's the lowest level

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Speaker 2: since September last year. Now, locally, the market leader, Macquarie

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Speaker 2: Group tumbled five percent, while Goodman Group fell four and

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Speaker 2: a half percent. The tech stocks we hit particularly hard,

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Speaker 2: with Aria, Weistech, Global Zero, and Promiticus all falling sharply.

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Speaker 2: The Boss overall was down close to three percent for

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Speaker 2: the week, and Wall Street seems to be tying of

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Speaker 2: the tariff debate as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that's right. You can only describe it

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Speaker 1: as an erratic week on Wall Street last week because

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Speaker 1: on Friday you had the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 1: up zero point six percent. Despite all of these concerns

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Speaker 1: about the US economy and uncertainty about what the President

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Speaker 1: would do with Tariff's. The Dow Jones added half of

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Speaker 1: one percent on Friday, the Nasdaq climbed zero point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: But for the week right, the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred was down three point one percent, the Dow Jones

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Speaker 1: down two point four percent, the nasdak down three and

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Speaker 1: a half percent. So despite those games on Friday, it

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Speaker 1: was not a good week overall.

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Speaker 2: That's right, Michael. It's been a roller coaster. And the

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Speaker 2: Aussie dollar is still just above sixty three US cents,

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Speaker 2: but only just and gold is sitting in around US

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Speaker 2: two nine hundred and eighteen dollars an ounce, incredible prices,

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Speaker 2: and bitcoin is around US eighty six thousand dollars all right.

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Speaker 1: Now. Immediately after the show, Adam, we have an interview

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Speaker 1: coming up, and this is Sean speaking with Frank Danielli

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Speaker 1: from MAA Financial Group, and we've done a lot of

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Speaker 1: interviews on fear and greed. I reckon that this is

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Speaker 1: probably the best explanation of private credit that you'll hear,

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Speaker 1: which is such a hot topic for investors and has

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Speaker 1: been now for the last what I want to say,

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Speaker 1: eighteen months, kind of two years, where there's been a

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Speaker 1: lot of buzz around this. If you have any questions

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Speaker 1: about it, listen to Frank's conversation with Sean. It will

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Speaker 1: explain a lot of things, so it is a must listen.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up after the show. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Adam Labor has won the state election in Western Australia,

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Speaker 1: with Premier Roger Cook and his government re elected with

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Speaker 1: the second biggest majority in state history. It is less

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Speaker 1: than the really the extraordinary. I know I use the

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Speaker 1: word extraordinary a lot, but I mean this is extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: Back in twenty twenty one, which was the covid Era election,

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Speaker 1: when Mark McGowan was there, there was fifty three seats,

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Speaker 1: one out of a possible fifty nine. This is less

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Speaker 1: this time. Still more though than the forty one that

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Speaker 1: Mark McGowan won when he first came to power. And

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Speaker 1: this win, it is a landslide. It is good news

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Speaker 1: for the Prime minister.

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Speaker 2: It is Michael and Anthony Albanez. He had planned to

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Speaker 2: call an election yesterday for April twelve. That's according to

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Speaker 2: media reports. The plan was to glow in the Wa

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Speaker 2: Labor victory, but cyclone Alfred has delayed that because it's

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Speaker 2: a bad look to appear political in the midst of

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Speaker 2: a crisis, and I'd say I have to agree with that, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right now. Given there needs to

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Speaker 1: be thirty three days between when an election is called

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Speaker 1: and then when it's held, and the fact that we've

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Speaker 1: got Easter, Anak Day and school holidays falling in late April,

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Speaker 1: the next possible date is the third of May. That

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Speaker 1: means the government will have to hand down a budget

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Speaker 1: on March twenty five, as scheduled. The challenge for the

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Speaker 1: government is the budget it is likely to show deficits

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Speaker 1: well into the future. So whether that then cancels out

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Speaker 1: the positive effect of the Wa state election then all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden into this not so rosy budget. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be an interesting little couple of months

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Speaker 1: ahead of us.

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Speaker 2: You're right, Michael. And recent polling federally shows that the

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Speaker 2: coalition with a two party preferred lead of fifty two

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Speaker 2: percent to forty eight percent. Though, and let's say that

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Speaker 2: the most likely election result will be a minority government

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Speaker 2: with Anthony Albanezi as Prime Minister, it'll be interesting to

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Speaker 2: see what the next set of polls, say, off the

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Speaker 2: back of the WA result, Michael, and I figure we're

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Speaker 2: in for a lot more polling between now and the

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Speaker 2: final election.

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Speaker 1: I suspect it might be right there, Adam. Now, property,

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Speaker 1: there's a very mixedweekend for the housing market. Sydney recorded

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Speaker 1: a preliminary clearance rate of seventy point seven percent, which

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Speaker 1: was just a touch lower than last week. Melbourne was

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Speaker 1: seventy point five percent, but the volume of properties going

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Speaker 1: to auction was almost half that of Sydney because of

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Speaker 1: the long weekend with the Labour Day public holiday today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael. And in Brisbane the preliminary clearance rate was

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Speaker 2: around fifty seven percent, but the number of auctions was

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Speaker 2: well down, with many either postponed or canceled, understandably due

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Speaker 2: to extropical cycle on Alfred Now.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned at the top of the show, Adam about

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Speaker 1: banking stocks, and they are having a very hard time

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Speaker 1: of it at the moment. On Friday, Commonwealth Bank, Westpac

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Speaker 1: and A and Z led the market lower and some

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Speaker 1: are now in correction territory, which is defined as having

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Speaker 1: fallen more than ten percent from their peaks.

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Speaker 2: Michael, these are really big fluctuations. In festas seem to

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Speaker 2: have fallen out of love with the banks, maybe just

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Speaker 2: for now. On Friday, Commonwealth Bank fell three point three percent,

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Speaker 2: taking the decline from its peak to eleven percent. Westpac

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Speaker 2: and A and Z were both off two point four

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Speaker 2: percent on Friday and are back respectively twelve and eight

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Speaker 2: percent below their peaks. National Australian Bank was the outperformer

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Speaker 2: on Friday, down one point two percent, but it has

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Speaker 2: fallen seventeen percent from its peak. The key reason that

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Speaker 2: the February earning season showed bank margins were under pressure,

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Speaker 2: and given though are already highly valued, it's not a

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Speaker 2: surprise they've lost some ground recently. Also, the size of

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Speaker 2: the banks can work against them. Passive investing, whereby people

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Speaker 2: try and mirror the market means fund managers need to

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Speaker 2: sell the banks when they start falling to ensure the

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Speaker 2: right waiting for a passive investor, and it becomes something

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Speaker 2: of an unvirtuous circle for the banks.

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Speaker 1: Another big update from Friday, Adam Star Entertainment to signed

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Speaker 1: a deal to sell its half stake in the new

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Speaker 1: Queen's Warf casino and entertainment complex in Brisbane that is

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Speaker 1: really part of a bid to raise cash and keep

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Speaker 1: itself from falling into administration. A deal was signed on Friday,

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Speaker 1: according to the Financial Review, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: That's right, Michael Starr is in a difficult spot. The

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Speaker 2: agreement means Stars joint venture partners that's Hong Kong's Chow

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Speaker 2: Tai Fook Enterprises and Far East Consortium will take full

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Speaker 2: control of the Brisbane Cansito and Resort for about fifty

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Speaker 2: million dollars. The deal allows the casino to stay open

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Speaker 2: and saves around three thousand jobs. It's also expected to

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Speaker 2: all our start to avoid administration and gives the company

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Speaker 2: time to find a new investor or lender to recapitalize

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Speaker 2: the company. The Queensland Government would need to approve the deal.

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Speaker 1: It would be hard to see them not approving it right,

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Speaker 1: particularly when there are when there are so many jobs

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Speaker 1: on the line as well, three thousand jobs as a

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Speaker 1: lot of people.

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Speaker 2: It is, and they've clearly explored so many alternatives. If

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Speaker 2: the government doesn't approve it, it really doesn't leave many

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Speaker 2: solutions open to them.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now private equity giant Brookfield has pulled out of

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Speaker 1: the three point four billion dollar bidding war for wealth

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Speaker 1: management firm Insignia Financial, leaving the battle now to Baine

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Speaker 1: and CC Capital. Bain and cc lodged separate five dollars

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Speaker 1: per share offers for a nearly one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: year old institution formerly known as IF on Friday, which

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Speaker 1: is an increase of about ten percent I think to

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Speaker 1: earlier bids.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael, The final offer from either Bain or CC

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Speaker 2: Capital is low likely to be made in the next

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Speaker 2: six weeks, the Insignia board told investors in a statement,

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Speaker 2: and it intends to recommend a binding deal of at

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Speaker 2: least an off a price of five dollars from either one.

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Speaker 2: Insigneia's share price jumped ten percent to almost four dollars

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Speaker 2: seventy share on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news, Adam and this story it's

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Speaker 1: an early contender for my favorite so anyway, even though

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Speaker 1: there's a bad element to it, right, but it is

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Speaker 1: about space travel. Elon Musk's SpaceX has suffered another setback

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Speaker 1: after its starship exploded ten minutes after launch on a

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Speaker 1: test flight. The debris from the explosion was filmed over

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Speaker 1: Florida and the Caribbean. And if you haven't seen the

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Speaker 1: footage of that, it just looks extraordinary. There I do

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Speaker 1: it again. It looks incredible, Yeah, remarkable. Just have a

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Speaker 1: look at it, because it is this incredible display just

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Speaker 1: going across the sky. It is not all bad news though,

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Speaker 1: because there was part of the ship that blew up,

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Speaker 1: but the boosters, the giant boosters were caught by the

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Speaker 1: mechanical arm on the landing pad again, which is what

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Speaker 1: we talked about kind of last year, and it's happened

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Speaker 1: again since then, and then again late last week, where

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Speaker 1: these giant boosters come back down to Earth and it

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Speaker 1: are snatched out of the sky by these arms on

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Speaker 1: this landing pad. It proves at the very least that

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Speaker 1: that part of the system is working very well.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, yeah, Michael, not all was lost. It seems like

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk is in the headlines more for his proximity

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Speaker 2: to US President Donald Trump these days, but stories like

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Speaker 2: this one reminds us of the many other projects and

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Speaker 2: companies he's actually got going on all of the same time.

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Speaker 2: And it's worth a mention of this line from SpaceX.

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Speaker 2: A starship reached an altitude of one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: kilometers before something went wrong. SpaceX described it as quote

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Speaker 2: a rapid unscheduled disassembly unquote, a very fancy way of

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Speaker 2: saying it exploded.

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Speaker 1: That's corporate jargon for you, isn't it. That's really quite something.

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Speaker 1: One last one, Adam, this is kind of business adjacent

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Speaker 1: this story. Okay, butterfly populations which I butterfly talked about.

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Speaker 1: If you're ingreed, there we go. We can link everything back.

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Speaker 1: Butterfly populations in the US shrank by more than a

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Speaker 1: fifth within the space of two decades, according to a

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Speaker 1: new study. However, the good news is that researchers say

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Speaker 1: butterflies may be able to recover if urgent conservation measures

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Speaker 1: are taken.

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Speaker 2: Michael, sometimes we hear about bees and their importance to

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Speaker 2: the ecosystem. Well, it seems that butterflies are nearly the same.

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Speaker 2: Numbers fell by twenty two percent between the year twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty. And this is according to research by Binghamton

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Speaker 2: University in New York State. A third of species saw

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Speaker 2: serious decline, with some like Julia's skipper.

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Speaker 1: Do you know that one, Michael, I'm not hugely familiar.

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Speaker 2: You've got some trying to recap but well.

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Speaker 1: Dounds very exotic.

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Speaker 2: So Julius skipper alone lost more than ninety percent of

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Speaker 2: their population. The study, published in Science Journal and reported

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Speaker 2: by the BBC, analyzed twelve point six million butterfly sightings

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Speaker 2: from seventy six thousand surveys across thirty five monitoring programs.

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Speaker 2: These are big numbers. Using statistical models, they estimated population

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Speaker 2: trends for three hundred and forty two species. The results

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Speaker 2: showed that thirty three percent were in significant decline, with

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Speaker 2: many exhibiting extreme losses. One hundred and seven species declined

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Speaker 2: by more than fifty percent. Habitat loss, pesticides and climate

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Speaker 2: change are the key causes for the decline. That's according

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Speaker 2: to the researchers. Butterflies are crucial pollinators michael supporting plants

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Speaker 2: and crops, so experts say their decline could disrupt food

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Speaker 2: production and entire ecosystems. They also serve as indicators of

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Speaker 2: environmental health. When butterfly numbers four, it signals trouble for

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Speaker 2: other species.

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Speaker 1: You know. One of the problems for Julia's skipper, Adam.

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Speaker 1: I've just looked it up. It looks too much like

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Speaker 1: a moth. It's all brown and dull. What it needs

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Speaker 1: is a bit of color.

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Speaker 2: Okay, it needs some game. Spruce up, Julius Skipper.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there we go, all right. Up next is Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. The Week Ahead, featuring our resident economist Stephen

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Speaker 1: kaculis always very excited and always worth a listen to

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Speaker 1: Steven on what is coming up in the economy this

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Speaker 1: week and also what happened last week as well. And

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Speaker 1: after that, stick around as well for the interview with

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Speaker 1: Frank Daniellie from m A Financial Group, a great supporter

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Speaker 1: of this podcast and as I said, one of the

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Speaker 1: best explanations of private credit that you will hear. It

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Speaker 1: is a must listen for investors. Thank you very much, Adam,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. It's Monday, the tenth of March twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson. That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.