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Speaker 1: Well, as you know, and you've been hearing on five

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Speaker 1: double A News this morning, Joe Biden overnight our time,

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Speaker 1: has announced he won't stand again as for the presidency

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Speaker 1: of the United States. He won't be the Democrats nominee

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Speaker 1: when their national convention is on in just under a

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Speaker 1: month from now in the US. Associate Professor David Smith

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Speaker 1: US Studies Center, UNI of Sydney on the line, David,

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Speaker 1: good morning, Thank you for your.

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Speaker 2: Time once more, Good morning, my pleasure.

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Speaker 1: Now really interesting, a number of people have come out

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Speaker 1: supporting Kamala Harris. The Vice President Donald Trump says she'll

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Speaker 1: be easier to beat. You'd expect him to say that,

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Speaker 1: I guess, but the Clintons have supported Harris. Biden obviously

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Speaker 1: endorsing an interesting. Barack Obama isn't. He's just said, you know,

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Speaker 1: I hope that the best candidate is nominated.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's very typical of Obama's caution. He tends to

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Speaker 2: wait until the last minute before he makes commitments to things.

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Speaker 2: I actually thought one of the main reasons Biden eventually

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Speaker 2: pulled out was that Obama was finally telling people that

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Speaker 2: that Biden couldn't win. And I think there's a sign

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Speaker 2: that once Obama turns against you, you've really lost. But

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Speaker 2: certainly at the moment, Harris not only has the support

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Speaker 2: of people like the Clinton, she's also got the support

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Speaker 2: of just about anybody else who could be a presidential candidate.

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Speaker 2: So Governor Gavin Houston from California, Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan,

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Speaker 2: Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, all these people who have been

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Speaker 2: talked about as presidential candidates, they've said they're supporting Harris.

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Speaker 2: So at the moment, it doesn't look like she's going

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Speaker 2: to have much much serious competition.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so she and it makes sense, doesn't it, because

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Speaker 1: the way their finance rules work over there in election campaigns.

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Speaker 1: Being on the ticket already, she is the recipient of

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Speaker 1: all the money raised her and Biden, so if he

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Speaker 1: stands down, it's still her, whereas if it's not her,

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Speaker 1: then they up from scratch. Essentially.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it would have been a very complicated situation, and

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Speaker 2: certainly she is definitely going to be able to keep

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Speaker 2: most of the money, although there will probably be legal

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Speaker 2: challenges from Republicans to it, which is something you would

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Speaker 2: expect them to try to tie up the money on donation.

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Speaker 2: This has been the biggest day for donations to the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party in years. Reportedly, more than thirty million dollars

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Speaker 2: in small donations has flooded in today. And the defense

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Speaker 2: that I'm getting from Democrats in the US is everyone

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Speaker 2: is breathing a huge sigh of relief. Even though Biden

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Speaker 2: very decisively won the primary, there were a lot of

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Speaker 2: Democrats who wished that he hadn't run, who supported him

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Speaker 2: because they felt that they needed unity behind Biden as

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Speaker 2: the candidates that were really getting increasingly concerned by the

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Speaker 2: fact that he was still in the race. So there's

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Speaker 2: huge relief. It's hard to say whether it's going to

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Speaker 2: be easier or harder for Kamala Harris to beat Trump

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Speaker 2: than it would have been for Biden, because the polling

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Speaker 2: is all over the place on this issue. Some poles

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Speaker 2: show her doing it better than Biden, some poles show

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Speaker 2: her doing a bit worse. But certainly for the Democratic

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Speaker 2: donors and activists, this is going to be a hugely

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Speaker 2: energizing thing.

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Speaker 1: Okay, should Joe Biden go immediately and she serves out

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Speaker 1: the rest of his term, would that make it easier

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Speaker 1: for her rather than having essentially two people at the

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Speaker 1: top of the tree.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it would. I think that would make

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Speaker 2: it harder for her, having to become the most powerful

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Speaker 2: person in the world in a very short period of

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Speaker 2: time while campaigning for the presidency. I think that would

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Speaker 2: actually that would make it harder and would also be

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Speaker 2: quite a destabilizing thing for the country. I think I

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Speaker 2: think it's a much better option for Biden to serve

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Speaker 2: out this, you know, the end of his turn. We

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Speaker 2: have to remember presidents in the last few months of

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Speaker 2: their terms are not particularly powerful anyway. They're often known

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Speaker 2: as lame duck president. I think Biden is going to

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Speaker 2: be the father of all lame duck president in his

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Speaker 2: last few years. But yeah, I'm not surprised that he

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Speaker 2: is staying on as president.

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Speaker 1: Does he have a legacy, because I've seen Democrat after

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Speaker 1: Democrat this morning come out saying he has been an

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Speaker 1: outstanding president. And I'm struggling to think Afghan withdrawal was

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Speaker 1: a disaster. I mean, there must be something good there,

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Speaker 1: but I don't know what it is.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they will point to the kind of massive aid

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Speaker 2: packages that got pasted at the beginning of his presidency

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Speaker 2: around COVID to the United States. Those pieces of that

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Speaker 2: money that happened both during the end of Trump and

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Speaker 2: during the beginning of Biden. These are the last pieces

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Speaker 2: of major bipartisan legislation that anyone has seen in the

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Speaker 2: United States, So there's that. Certainly for pro union Democrats,

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Speaker 2: he's been quite an important president. Unions have made some

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Speaker 2: pretty significant gains in the United States during Biden's presidency,

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Speaker 2: partly because of decisions that he made. He's the first

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Speaker 2: president in history, as far as underware, to actually appear

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Speaker 2: on a union picket line, so progressives will always remember

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Speaker 2: that fondly. Also, economic growth and unemployment has been very good,

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Speaker 2: but of course there's been the inflation problem that has

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Speaker 2: just plagued the United States the whole time, so his

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Speaker 2: economic record is always going to be looked at as

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Speaker 2: mixed at best. Another thing that people point to is

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Speaker 2: that even though the Afghanistan withdrawal was I would say

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Speaker 2: the lowest point of his presidency, the reason that Ukraine

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Speaker 2: has been able to survive the Russian invasion is largely

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Speaker 2: because of how strongly Biden committed to it and led

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Speaker 2: the coalition of Western allies. So I certainly you know

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Speaker 2: his allies can point to things that he's done, but

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Speaker 2: these are not the things that have been on people's

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Speaker 2: minds over the last few months. People have been really

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Speaker 2: concerned about his age and his competence and the cost

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Speaker 2: of living in the United States. I thought was and

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Speaker 2: it probably still will be the single biggest drag on

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Speaker 2: Democrats at this election. It doesn't really matter how well

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Speaker 2: the economy is doing if people can't afford to live

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Speaker 2: in the economy, and that is the reality for many

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Speaker 2: many Americans.

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Speaker 1: All Right, is Trump then right that Harris will be

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Speaker 1: easy to beat?

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Speaker 2: I don't know about that. I feel Biden would have

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Speaker 2: got worse over the next few months, because he's got

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Speaker 2: worse over the last few months, so god knows what

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Speaker 2: condition he would have been in by November. So no,

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Speaker 2: I don't think that he'll I don't think he'll be easier,

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Speaker 2: that Harris will be easier to beat. Even though Trump's

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Speaker 2: been saying this publicly, there's some reporting saying privately his

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Speaker 2: campaign was really hoping that Biden would actually stay in

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Speaker 2: the race. The other thing is they've been attacking Biden

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Speaker 2: for the last four years. They have their very well

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Speaker 2: established lines of attack on Biden, which I think we're

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Speaker 2: really hurting him. They've really got to completely recalibrate that now.

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Speaker 2: I mean, in some ways it's a completely new race.

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Speaker 2: I think that, you know, Kamala Harris is going to

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Speaker 2: be coming from behind. She'll be the definite underdog in

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Speaker 2: the race. But it is going to be harder for

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Speaker 2: them to begin their own sort of attack campaign from scratch.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we'll see where it ends up in the

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Speaker 1: next little while. We'll probably speak again before all this

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Speaker 1: is over, Dave, thank you for your time, my pleasure.

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Speaker 1: David Smith, Professor David Smith from U Studies Center at

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Speaker 1: the UNI of Sydney,