1 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week ahead. I'm sure 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: and alma, and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Coculis. 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: You'll find him at the Cook dot com, t h 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: G k ukcook dot com and not next using the 5 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: handle to Kirk Stephen. 6 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 2: Good morning, had a very good morning, and what a 7 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: fabulous weekend it was with that horse racing. We're getting 8 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,119 Speaker 2: close to narrowing down who's going to be up in 9 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks. So we're getting there. I've worked 10 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 2: it out. I'll certainly let you know though. 11 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: Please do, please do now, Stephen, if you decided to 12 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: give up your career as an economist, I reckon you'd 13 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 1: be able to find a job, because there seems to 14 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 1: be thousands of them out there. 15 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 2: Well that was the thing from last week's day, and 16 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 2: I think everybody was blood out of the water with 17 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 2: the employment creation, you know, more than sixty thousand jobs again, 18 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: and that's you know, we often get volatile monthly numbers 19 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: in the jobs market, but in the last six months, 20 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: so you've got you know, not just a one off wonder. 21 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: We've got six months where we've had over a quarter 22 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 2: of a million jobs added. To the workforce in Australia. 23 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 2: So in a sense people can say all the immigrants 24 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 2: coming into the economy, and I confess I was part 25 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 2: of this concern too, that there'd be such an inflow 26 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 2: of people into the economy that we couldn't employ them 27 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 2: all and have implications for the unemployment rate and the like. 28 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 2: But it seems them or me, if and when I 29 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: lose my job as an economists, I'll find something to do. 30 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 2: And that employment creation was stunning in a word, and 31 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 2: it actually filtered through too into a tick lower in 32 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 2: the unemployment rate to four point one percent. So they 33 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: were genuinely, genuinely strong and surprisingly strong numbers too. 34 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: I kind of I said it last week in the show. 35 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: The winner out of the jobs numbers was sort of 36 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank in many ways, because all of a 37 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: sudden people are thinking, yeah, maybe they're quite sensible not 38 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: cutting rates. 39 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, certainly have a bit of a slap in 40 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 2: the face for me, because I think they had needed 41 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: to cut rates. And look, I still think they probably 42 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 2: do a little bit like the US and what's happening 43 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 2: globally too with rate cut you know, the use is 44 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: cutting interstrations with unt climb rate exactly the same as Australia. 45 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 2: So you know, inflation is the main game there. And 46 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 2: next week we actually get the inflation numbers even we'll 47 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 2: talk about that in the week ahead next week. But 48 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 2: you know, so there's this question that the economy is 49 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 2: still really subdued. You know, there's been a little bit 50 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 2: of less bad news I suppose, we could say, in 51 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 2: the last little while. But for the RBA, I dare 52 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 2: say the governor deputy governors, they are sitting on their 53 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: landshu tea when they got the labor force numbers or 54 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: whatever it is. That'd be ebtings breakfast. I don't know 55 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 2: what the drink to be honest, but that'd be having 56 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 2: a little rise smile saying yeah, we're pleased that our 57 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: actions so far are being validated by the labor force numbers. 58 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 2: And as I said, I think they're going to get 59 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 2: validation on the inflation front in the not too future 60 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 2: as well. That yes, there's a lot of distortions with 61 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 2: how headline inflations go, but we've still got a step 62 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 2: lower in inflation as well. So they're going to be 63 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 2: sitting there, you know, and i'd give them a good 64 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 2: mark if I proved wrong, which might well be the case, 65 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 2: I'll give them a really top mark for handling it 66 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 2: really well. 67 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: Why do you think the Deputy Governor, who I like 68 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: to call Doogie, but of course his name is Andrew Houser, 69 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 1: why do you think Doogie will say this week? Because 70 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: he's fronting the press, he's in English gentlemen, very well 71 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,519 Speaker 1: spoken and sometimes outspoken, so it'll be interesting to see 72 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: what he comes up with this time. 73 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: Yeah for back in England official, So he's terrific, and 74 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 2: he's very entertaining and hugely knowledgeable too, so he's always provocative, 75 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 2: and he's the one who says, yeah, don't be so 76 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 2: critical of the RBA. And he might do a little 77 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: bit of gloating on the back of the labor numbers 78 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 2: from last week, but look he's got a chance. As 79 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: we saw from Sarah Hunt of the Assistant Governor, the 80 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 2: chief economist of the RBA, who spoke last week about 81 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 2: inflation expectations and the like, I think the Reserve Banking 82 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 2: just god a continuing to sort of frame this narrative 83 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 2: that look that they're not silly, they're aware that the 84 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 2: economy's work, they're aware that it's slowing down. They are 85 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: aware that inflation's coming down not rapidly enough, and they 86 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: were forecasting a material rise in the unemployee rate, which 87 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 2: is sort of taking longer to achieve as well. So 88 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 2: not only is it taking longer for inflation to come 89 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 2: down in their eyes, it's taking longer for unemployment to 90 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 2: go up. So I did say he's going to be 91 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 2: sort of talking about that sort of two way street 92 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 2: if you like. That validates them leaving raids on hold 93 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 2: since November last year. So it'll be the one year 94 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 2: anniversary very very soon. 95 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: And most importantly, you mentioned Melbourne Cup at the beginning 96 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: of the show. One of the great bugbears of the 97 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank Board was that there was always a meeting 98 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: on the first Tuesday of November. Do we have a 99 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: meeting on the first Tuesday this November or not. 100 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 2: John, I'm really cross, really cross, because we do. From 101 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: the first years over November to the eight board meetings 102 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 2: scattered throughout the years, so they changed the timing and 103 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 2: the number of board meetings just in never form of 104 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 2: the bank, they kept on Melbourne Cup days. So at 105 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 2: two thirds on the fifth of November, we've got the 106 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 2: RBA decision, which probably now will be no change, Thank 107 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 2: goodness that you know. It'll be interesting to see what 108 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 2: they say. But half an hour later the gates are 109 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 2: back and off and running in the twenty twenty four 110 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 2: Melbourne Cup. So I'm I don't know which way to look. 111 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 2: I'll be a busy man. That's a couple of weeks time. 112 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: I do know where you'll be looking, Stephen, and it's 113 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: not Martin Place, I'm sorry. 114 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 2: We'll be down down the Flemington Strait. So yeah, we'll 115 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:27,599 Speaker 2: work on that all over. 116 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: A few days and Stephen, enjoy your week. Thank you 117 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: mate that it was the Economys. Stephen Caculis Pertananez the 118 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: Kookie can find him at the cook dot com and 119 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: follow him on X using the handle the Kirk. I'm sure, 120 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: I elma, And this is fear and Greed. The Week Ahead.