1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: It's Friday, September nineteen, twenty twenty five. Anthony Albanezi is 3 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: packing his bags to fly to New York for the 4 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: United Nations General Assembly vote on recognizing Palestine as a state, 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: but opinion polls in the West Bank show Palestinians won't 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 1: support Australia's key demand for recognition the reform of the 7 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: Palestinian Authority. That story, based on a report by the 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: Australia Israel and Jewish Affairs Council, is an exclusive live 9 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: now at the Australian dot com dot U. An ambitious 10 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: climate goal that gives us just ten years to have 11 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: are omissions Today, The gritty politics behind a bold new 12 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: number the Prime Minister hopes will soothe the hardheads, calm 13 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: the Zealots and keep him in a job. Already be 14 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: your position saying no way. So can Leader Susan Lee 15 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: survive yet another climate war? Today, our political editor Jeff 16 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 1: Chambers joins me to dig into the issue that has 17 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: a nasty habit of killing political careers. Jeff Chambers is 18 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: The Australian's Political editor. Jeff a huge day in the 19 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: story of climate in Australia. And this is the issue 20 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: that has killed off a bunch of prime ministers. It's 21 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: crueled the careers of opposition leaders. It's been incredibly difficult 22 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: for Australians to get their heads around. Of course, this 23 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: issue is so complex. What's your kind of first thought 24 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: about this sixty two to seventy percent target that the 25 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: government's come up with. 26 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 2: Australians shouldn't kid themselves. We've heard a lot from Anthony Albanezy, 27 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 2: Chris Bowen and Jim Chalmers about hitting this sixty two 28 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 2: to seventy percent emissions reduction by twenty thirty five. I mean, 29 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 2: we're already struggling to hit both of mes reduction at 30 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: our eighty two percent renewables in the grid by twenty 31 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 2: thirty targets. It's a big ass for anyone to believe 32 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 2: that the government will be able to deliver on such 33 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 2: greater ambition. Let's be real. The seventy percent is to 34 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 2: try and spoil the Greens and the Teals, the climate 35 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 2: activist groups, who by the way, haven't bordered. The real 36 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: figure here is sixty two percent. 37 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: So let's just break that down. That means Australia needs 38 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: to dramatically cut its emissions of greenhouse gases starting today, 39 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: and by twenty fifty we've promised the world will be 40 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: at net zero emissions. People say that a lot net zero. 41 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,839 Speaker 1: This is what it actually means. It means greenhouse gas 42 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: emissions are massively reduced by doing things like cutting fossil fuels, 43 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: and then they're also balanced out by the removal of 44 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: greenhouse gases through means like growing forests, restoring wetlands and 45 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: changing farming practices. The idea is that when you balance 46 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: it all up, there's effectively no greenhouse gases and therefore 47 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: no more climate change. 48 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 3: This is a responsible target, back by the science, back 49 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 3: by a practical plan to get there and built on 50 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,519 Speaker 3: proven technology, so right target to protect our environment. 51 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: To hear Anthony Albanezi talk about it, you'd think climate 52 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: policy is pretty straightforward, but we all know in Australian 53 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 1: politics it's a leader killer. 54 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: The greatest moral and economic challenge we will face in 55 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 3: the twenty first century is climate change. 56 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: Kevin Rudd's emission's trading scheme went south, and so did 57 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: his Prime ministership. I hope I've been able to demonstrate 58 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: to you that this has been a very busy two 59 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: and a half years. Julia Gillard blew herself up with 60 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: a carbon tax. It will be easier for the next woman, 61 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: and the woman after that, and the woman after that, 62 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: and I'm proud of that. Malcolm Turnbull went too fast. 63 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 2: I started to sink into a very very deep depression. 64 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: Tony Abbott tried to rain it all in. There will 65 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: be no wrecking, no undermining, and no sniping. And then 66 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, Climate two hundred and the teals 67 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: helped labor wipe out Scott Morrison. And yet now the 68 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: old ideas are coming back around. 69 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 2: Well, I think obviously we can go back to the 70 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: carbon tax, and the irony of that is now we've 71 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 2: got the Productivity Commission and miners themselves and big business 72 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 2: saying we probably need a carbon price to be hitting 73 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 2: the targets that we're talking about now. So in the 74 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: space of just over a decade, it's funny how things 75 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 2: can move so quickly. And I think the real pressure 76 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: point is that if they don't get it right, they 77 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 2: don't get enough renewables, enough batteries in there. The technologi 78 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 2: is not up to scratch, we'll see blackouts and I 79 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: think blackouts is poison in politics. And the other big 80 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 2: question is as we bring in data centers and try 81 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 2: and drive AI here in Australia, you need a lot 82 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 2: of power and that's where this question over the future 83 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 2: of nuclear power rests. Because so many other similar Western 84 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: democracies in countries, a lot of their emissions reductions promises 85 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: are underpin by zero emissions nuclear So I think that's 86 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 2: the sort of challenge ahead. 87 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: Labor and Anthony Alberanezi could have released this target before 88 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: the election. By the time the next election rolls around, 89 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: presumably they're hoping Australians will have moved on. Was that 90 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: a bit sneaky, Well. 91 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 2: It wasn't, honest, let's put it that way. You've got 92 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 2: to remember back November twenty twenty four, Peter Dutton had 93 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 2: increased the coalition's primary aid up to forty percent, Labor 94 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 2: was at thirty one. Things were not looking good for 95 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 2: the government, so they were concerned that this perception they 96 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 2: were going so hard on net zero and these targets 97 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: could have a really bad impact for them in seats 98 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,239 Speaker 2: like the Hunter which is a traditional coal mining area. 99 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: Quietly the government told the Treasury to do economic modeling 100 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 1: on a number a sixty five percent reduction by twenty 101 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: thirty five that was a lot lower than what the 102 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: Climate Change Authority wanted. Albanezi had to balance the fears 103 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: of some in his cabinet that labor would go too 104 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: fast and on the other hand pressure from some labor 105 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: voters to go faster. Jeff and the other journals have 106 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: been given a giant pile of official advice and modeling 107 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: to work through, and buried in there is the evidence 108 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: of just how hard even this is going to be. 109 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 2: And there is a little list in the Climate Change 110 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 2: or Authority advice and it says, look, even just to 111 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,039 Speaker 2: get to sixty two percent, we're going to have to 112 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 2: harve Australia's current emissions levels. We're already struggling to cut 113 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 2: emissions levels or drupling win tripling utility solar capacity, doubling 114 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 2: rooftop and distributed solar capacity. That half of the light 115 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 2: vehicles sold between now and twenty thirty five would have 116 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 2: to be electric vehicles. Somehow we're going to produce more 117 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 2: sustainable aviation fuel and renewable does diesel electrifying it keep 118 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 2: The list goes on ceasing logging of old growth forests 119 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 2: and harving reclearing rates. It just when you read these lists, 120 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 2: it makes you really understand that it's going to be 121 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 2: really hard. And also Chris Bowen is relying on so 122 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 2: much technology that doesn't exist. They've had to sort of 123 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: walk back their hopes for green hydrogen because it hasn't 124 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: developed like they thought it might. And I think that's 125 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 2: the problem. There's a lot of bets going on and 126 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: a lot of assumptions going on. We still don't have 127 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 2: a price tag on how much this is going to cost. 128 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 2: We hear about the economic benefits, but I think a 129 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: lot of Australians know what is this going to cost 130 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 2: us financially? And is this going to have an impact 131 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 2: on our reliable energy. 132 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: Coming up? So can Susan Lee's leadership survive this hotter 133 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: than hot issue? And what about Susan Lee. She's struggling 134 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: to even hold the Coalition party room together on this issue. 135 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 2: So immediately after Anthony Albernizi announced his new very ambitious 136 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 2: twenty thirty five target, Susan Lee and Ted O'Brien delivered 137 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 2: a scathing press conference. They've completely rejected the twenty thirty 138 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: five target on the grounds that the government aren't even 139 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 2: close to coming to hitting their existing twenty thirty targets. 140 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 2: If you can't adopt an ambitious twenty thirty five target, 141 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 2: you are not going to get to net zero by 142 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 2: twenty fifty. This is a thorn in the side of 143 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 2: Susan Lee. It's clear to me that Susan Lee's leadership 144 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 2: is likely untenable unless the current policy of supporting that 145 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 2: zero by twenty fifty is rejected. But in saying that, 146 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 2: they obviously need to have alternatives that Dante and others 147 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 2: prepare and it can't be the same nuclear policy. It 148 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: has to be an entirely different approach, where for the 149 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 2: sake of the moderates, who, by the way, they're the 150 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 2: ones that did the numbers and got Susan Lee the leadership, 151 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 2: those people are very strongly saying, how on earth can 152 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 2: we win back any seats in metropolitan Australia without some 153 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: sort of climate change and energy policy that can win 154 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 2: votes in the Nats, in the Libs, across the joint 155 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 2: party room there at such extreme different positions. I do 156 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 2: believe that if Susan Lee wants to remain leader over 157 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 2: the coming period that she is going to have to 158 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 2: move this process faster. I think that Labour's twenty thirty 159 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 2: five target announcement presents an opportunity for the Coalition to 160 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 2: prosecute a case. But they have to prosecute that with facts, 161 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 2: economic facts, proper modeling and argue the point. They can't 162 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 2: just be shrill and just jump up and down. They're 163 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 2: going to have to present a viable alternative, and I 164 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 2: think that's a really big challenge for them. 165 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: Jeff Chambers is The Australian's Political editor. You can read 166 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: all our analysis right now at the Australian dot com 167 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: dot and come back to the front tomorrow for something 168 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: completely different inside the economics of showbiz, as we hit 169 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,559 Speaker 1: the road with a Netflix boy band trying to make 170 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: fame a reality in real life.