1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,440 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. 2 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:12,080 Sean Aylmer: Yesterday was an extraordinary day for markets. US President Donald 3 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:16,120 Sean Aylmer: Trump's decision to pause most reciprocal tariffs for ninety days 4 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:18,599 Sean Aylmer: triggered a massive rally on Wall Street. The S and 5 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,560 Sean Aylmer: P five hundred recorded its best day since two thousand 6 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,360 Sean Aylmer: and eight, soaring nine and a half percent, adding about 7 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,400 Sean Aylmer: four point three trillion US dollars and market value. The 8 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,400 Sean Aylmer: ASX had a stellar day too, opening six percent higher. 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,320 Sean Aylmer: The gains moderated during the day, but it still ended 10 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,839 Sean Aylmer: up well and truly. This all comes after retail investors flooded 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,240 Sean Aylmer: the market earlier this week and late last week, hoping 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,479 Sean Aylmer: to buy the dip. And that's what I wanted to 13 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:45,280 Sean Aylmer: take a look at today. Remember this is general information only, 14 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,960 Sean Aylmer: and you should always seek professional advice before making investment decisions. 15 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,440 Sean Aylmer: Jon Howie is the CEO of trading platform Stake. Jon, 16 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:53,640 Sean Aylmer: welcome back to Fear and Greed. 17 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,440 Jon Howie: Thanks for having me. 18 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,560 Sean Aylmer: So, tell us what's happened in the last week in 19 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,480 Sean Aylmer: terms of retail investors. 20 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,000 Jon Howie: Well, I think, as you said, that the real story 21 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,640 Jon Howie: is that retail investors have used the opportunity the volatility 22 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,959 Jon Howie: in the last sort of three or four days, ultimately 23 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:15,119 Jon Howie: to buy the dip. We've seen huge flows in both 24 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,959 Jon Howie: Ossie and US stocks. And what's interesting actually is that 25 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,800 Jon Howie: flow had slowed down a little bit in the week previous. 26 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,200 Jon Howie: I think investors had got a sense that there was 27 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,800 Jon Howie: potentially some volatility on the horizon. There was a little 28 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,720 Jon Howie: bit of doubt around and on average, our customer base 29 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:35,760 Jon Howie: had sort of taken the foot off the gas a 30 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,160 Jon Howie: little bit. But what they've done is as soon as 31 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,280 Jon Howie: there has been an opportunity where valuations have obviously come back, 32 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,080 Jon Howie: the prices have come down a lot. We've seen We've 33 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:45,880 Jon Howie: seen a lot of those investors come back to the 34 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,920 Jon Howie: market buying the names that they know and they trust. 35 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,800 Jon Howie: Lots of flow in some of the large ETFs, particularly 36 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,520 Jon Howie: those with exposure to US markets, but also those names 37 00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,840 Jon Howie: that everyone will be familiar with, the Magnificent sevens that 38 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,200 Jon Howie: tears Apple's, Tesla's in Bidia's stocks like that. 39 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,680 Sean Aylmer: Okay, and so has that run through the last four sessions, 40 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,440 Sean Aylmer: so we're talking, well, is it Friday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, 41 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:15,160 Sean Aylmer: so it's five sessions. Actually have volumes been significantly higher? 42 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:21,359 Jon Howie: Yeah, We saw a big spike on Tuesday following the announcement, 43 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:25,520 Jon Howie: although I guess the volatilery around Liberation Day in commers, 44 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,040 Jon Howie: but that's actually continued now, so it's off a little 45 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,760 Jon Howie: bit in the last twenty four hours or so. But 46 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,679 Jon Howie: again we've sent another very big trading day overnight in 47 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,600 Jon Howie: the US and also yesterday in Australia as well, so 48 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:42,280 Jon Howie: things are continuing and I think we're seeing investors still 49 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:46,040 Jon Howie: of the view that whilst perhaps not as attractive as 50 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,520 Jon Howie: it was right at the market bottom when the sp 51 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,640 Jon Howie: got down below five thousand, still a lot of investors 52 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:53,000 Jon Howie: are looking to put money to work. 53 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,240 Sean Aylmer: And the people on the state platform do they invest 54 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,480 Sean Aylmer: mostly in oussie equity? I mean the locals are they 55 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,639 Sean Aylmer: investing nose equities or are they investing mostly in US 56 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:04,040 Sean Aylmer: slash magnificent seven. 57 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,400 Jon Howie: Yeah, it's interesting the shape of the portfolios that we 58 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,200 Jon Howie: see overall on steaka are pretty well defined. We see 59 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:18,000 Jon Howie: in Australia the big flows generally go into exchange traded funds, 60 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:20,800 Jon Howie: so we see a lot of nossy investors who are 61 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,600 Jon Howie: investing locally. They buy the ETFs that cover the ASEX 62 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,000 Jon Howie: two hundred, the s and p five hundred, the Nasdaq 63 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,519 Jon Howie: one hundred. Those are really where we see most of 64 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,960 Jon Howie: the flow. Now, there's obviously a very long tail of 65 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,160 Jon Howie: dobb investers, for example, who are buying gold stocks, or 66 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,960 Jon Howie: who might buy some of the smaller AUSSI technology companies 67 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,480 Jon Howie: that are listed locally. But then on the other side, 68 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,520 Jon Howie: when you look at the average over the whole of 69 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:47,080 Jon Howie: our customer base that I guess the single stock high 70 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,920 Jon Howie: conviction bets if you like, are really in those magnificent 71 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:51,720 Jon Howie: seven US companies. 72 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:56,000 Sean Aylmer: Okay, and any of those particularly popular Nvidia, Apple, or 73 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:56,720 Sean Aylmer: is it all of them? 74 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,840 Jon Howie: Yeah, look at all of them. I think what's been 75 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,600 Jon Howie: in interesting? We've I've got some data here just on 76 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,840 Jon Howie: the ratio between buyers and cells and so in video 77 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,640 Jon Howie: was eighty one to nineteen, so eighty one percent buyas 78 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:12,960 Jon Howie: to nineteen percent cells, so that was very popular. Apple 79 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,560 Jon Howie: a little bit lower, so basically seventy thirty, so seventy 80 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,080 Jon Howie: percent buyas to thirty percent cells. But yeah, all the 81 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,720 Jon Howie: names that everyone will be familiar with. 82 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:26,159 Sean Aylmer: Okay, when retail traders move in and out, do you 83 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,720 Sean Aylmer: get the sense that they're fairly well informed about what 84 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:29,240 Sean Aylmer: they're doing. 85 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,520 Jon Howie: What's interesting is that. I guess this is maybe law 86 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,640 Jon Howie: of large numbers, but on average, I think our customer 87 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,720 Jon Howie: base are actually very good traders and investors, so they 88 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,120 Jon Howie: are very on average, they're very disciplined about as I said, 89 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,800 Jon Howie: by the dip, we do actually see flow numbers and 90 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,599 Jon Howie: activity levels actually slow down when we get to the 91 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:53,000 Jon Howie: kind of the top end of those bullmarker arms, and 92 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,920 Jon Howie: then we see everything in terms of activity generally pick 93 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,719 Jon Howie: up pretty strongly when you get those dips. So in 94 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,400 Jon Howie: terms of like an investing discipline approach, on average, our 95 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:04,560 Jon Howie: customer base actually behaves pretty well. 96 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:06,760 Sean Aylmer: Okay, John, I want to talk about the future in 97 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:17,360 Sean Aylmer: a moment. We'll be back in a minute. I'm speaking 98 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,960 Sean Aylmer: to John Howie's CEO of Steak. So what happens next, John, 99 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,160 Sean Aylmer: I suppose that's the sixty four dollars question. We'd all 100 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,760 Sean Aylmer: like to know that you and I've had extreme volatility 101 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,480 Sean Aylmer: in the last five days or so. Do you think 102 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,840 Sean Aylmer: we're going to continue to see I suppose we can 103 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,039 Sean Aylmer: tick the box in terms of volatility, it's just whether 104 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,120 Sean Aylmer: or not it's going to be extreme. Yeah. 105 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,000 Jon Howie: Look, it's an interesting one. I think if you look 106 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,440 Jon Howie: at vis the volatility next in the US that got 107 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,520 Jon Howie: very high, think up above fifty for a little while 108 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,440 Jon Howie: there a couple of days ago. It would be I 109 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,359 Jon Howie: think unusual for it to stay up there, but I 110 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:56,800 Jon Howie: think you did often see volatility clusters. So whilst volatility 111 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:58,200 Jon Howie: might not be quite as high as it was a 112 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:02,200 Jon Howie: couple of days ago, I think it's rarely the case 113 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,279 Jon Howie: that these period these episodes are over in a couple 114 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:10,040 Jon Howie: of days. So clearly what the US administration is doing 115 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:14,400 Jon Howie: is driving markets. What Trump chooses to tweet tomorrow or 116 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:19,640 Jon Howie: next week will undoubtedly have an impact. My personal sense 117 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:27,440 Jon Howie: is that the administrations in the US has maybe seen 118 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,320 Jon Howie: the whites of everyone's eyes to some extent and realizes 119 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,719 Jon Howie: how damaging that could actually be to the outcomes I 120 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:37,760 Jon Howie: think they're trying to achieve. So the announcement of pausing 121 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,440 Jon Howie: the tariffs for ninety days yesterday is not surprising given 122 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,080 Jon Howie: what was happening, certainly in equity markets, but also in 123 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:48,920 Jon Howie: bond markets. That administration has been very clear, and Scott 124 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,840 Jon Howie: Bess at the Treasury Secretary, has been very clear recently 125 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,120 Jon Howie: that part of his role is to be what he 126 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,560 Jon Howie: says that the US number one bond salesman Ultimately, the 127 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,480 Jon Howie: US has a lot of debt, it needs to be 128 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,040 Jon Howie: able to sell bonds into the market at reasonable rates. 129 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,400 Jon Howie: You saw US bond rates actually going up quite quickly, 130 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:11,000 Jon Howie: which was counter to their aspirations, and so I think 131 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,120 Jon Howie: what you will see is that the narrative coming out 132 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:17,040 Jon Howie: of the US administration will moderate efficutly, because ultimately, if 133 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:20,640 Jon Howie: bond rates go up much more more, then they're not 134 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,240 Jon Howie: achieving what they want to achieve. So I would suspect 135 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,080 Jon Howie: volatility does probably slow down a little bit. We probably 136 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,040 Jon Howie: don't get back to sort of the mid teens and 137 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,960 Jon Howie: low teens levels on the VIX that you'd seen at 138 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,120 Jon Howie: the end of last year, but these episodes take time 139 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:34,680 Jon Howie: to work out. 140 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,520 Sean Aylmer: You mentioned ETFs and talked about the A six two 141 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:43,360 Sean Aylmer: hundred Wall Street. Are people mostly investing in ets as 142 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:49,080 Sean Aylmer: a passive investment or are there active ETFs then sort 143 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,640 Sean Aylmer: of flowing that through to active investing. I suppose what 144 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,560 Sean Aylmer: do you get a sense in terms of retail investors? 145 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,720 Jon Howie: Yeah, in general terms, so over the long term, what 146 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:02,160 Jon Howie: we generally see is our customers using ets as long 147 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:05,160 Jon Howie: term buy and hold investments. But I think what you've 148 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,880 Jon Howie: seen over the last forty eight hours seventy two hours. 149 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:09,760 Jon Howie: Is we have seen a lot of flow in some 150 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:11,960 Jon Howie: of those ETFs where I think people are taking a 151 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,400 Jon Howie: more tactical view. So we've sent a lot of flow in, 152 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:17,960 Jon Howie: for example, some of the Nest one hundred ETFs in 153 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,240 Jon Howie: the last twenty four hours, and so I think those 154 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:26,720 Jon Howie: are ultimately views on training a market bounce rather than 155 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:28,720 Jon Howie: those long term buy and hold positions. 156 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:33,880 Sean Aylmer: Okay, Now Steak has a lot of younger investors. Is 157 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,440 Sean Aylmer: there any sense that millennialsen Z gen Z maybe we 158 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,920 Sean Aylmer: should be calling them since it's US to us market 159 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,600 Sean Aylmer: gen Z's investors. Do they view the market differently to 160 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,959 Sean Aylmer: older generations? Oh? 161 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,920 Jon Howie: Look, I think they view the market differently to the 162 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:51,000 Jon Howie: extent that they realize they've got time on their side, 163 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,760 Jon Howie: and they are investing in those companies that they think 164 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,480 Jon Howie: are going to dominate over the long term, and I 165 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,960 Jon Howie: think are comfortable taking a little bit more volatility into 166 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:04,080 Jon Howie: their portfolios order to achieve those returns. Older investors, I 167 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,920 Jon Howie: think are generally more focused on things like dividends and 168 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,600 Jon Howie: Frankin credits and maybe things like fixed income. So yeah, 169 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,439 Jon Howie: I do think there are differences, But we see, as 170 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:18,440 Jon Howie: I said, we see our investors, our customers doing more 171 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,520 Jon Howie: than just inverted commas punting stocks. What they're doing is 172 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,240 Jon Howie: taking a view on companies they believe in, and they're 173 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,080 Jon Howie: also layering in things like ETFs to achieve perversification. 174 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,880 Sean Aylmer: Okay, in terms of what's happened in the last week 175 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,120 Sean Aylmer: or so, John, have you seen that before, just purely 176 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,520 Sean Aylmer: talking about retail volumes. 177 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,040 Jon Howie: Yeah, I think we. I mean, we certainly saw a 178 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,680 Jon Howie: lot of retail volume during the COVID period. I think 179 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,840 Jon Howie: that was kind of well reported at the time. I 180 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:50,040 Jon Howie: think what's different this time is that certainly our customer 181 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,959 Jon Howie: base has probably matured a bit since then. They've now 182 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,559 Jon Howie: been in the market three, four or five years, They've 183 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:01,440 Jon Howie: gone through the volatility of that COVID period. They've the 184 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,679 Jon Howie: customers that we that have stuck around, which thankfully, as 185 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:08,000 Jon Howie: most of them have seen the upside of what can 186 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,360 Jon Howie: happen when you get it right in markets, some of 187 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,640 Jon Howie: them have also seen the downside. We obviously had a 188 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:17,040 Jon Howie: fairly sharp pullback in markets in twenty twenty two. I 189 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,439 Jon Howie: think it was so I think a lot of our 190 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,280 Jon Howie: customers have that level of experience. So I think what 191 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,520 Jon Howie: we've observed in terms of behavior now is we're seeing 192 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,520 Jon Howie: less in terms of turnover of some of those what 193 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,760 Jon Howie: used to be called meme stocks. So during COVID you 194 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:33,920 Jon Howie: had like the Game Stop and all those kind of things. 195 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,800 Jon Howie: We haven't really seen flowing those kind of names. It's 196 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,920 Jon Howie: it's been those bigger, large established companies and those ETFs 197 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:42,640 Jon Howie: that are covering broad market exposures. 198 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,960 Sean Aylmer: I think that's all good news. John, thank you for 199 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:46,959 Sean Aylmer: talking to Fear and Greed. 200 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:48,280 Jon Howie: Great to be here. 201 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,680 Sean Aylmer: As John Howie, chief executive officer of training platform Stake. 202 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,360 Sean Aylmer: This is the Fear and Greed a business interview. Remember 203 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,679 Sean Aylmer: this is general information only, and you should always see 204 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,960 Sean Aylmer: professional advice before making investment decisions. Join us every mon 205 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,000 Sean Aylmer: Waning for the full episode of Fear and Greed at 206 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,480 Sean Aylmer: Daily Business News For people who make their own decisions. 207 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,080 Sean Aylmer: I'm Sean Elmer. Enjoy your day.