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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Bankers, politicians and investors put

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Speaker 1: pressure on the Reserve Bank ahead of today's interest rate decision.

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Speaker 1: Australia's largest steelmaker says US tariffs are good for business

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Speaker 1: and the skyways are becoming overcrowded, triggering safety fears. Plus

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Speaker 1: why a rail dispute in New South Wales is worrying

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and a two milk chases the

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Speaker 1: gray dollar in China. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday, the eighteenth of February twenty twenty five. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Days like today are full of anticipation. The main story

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Speaker 1: this morning Westpac's relatively new boss, Anthony Miller, has lent

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Speaker 1: his support to an interest rate cut by the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Board today, saying it would help businesses by reducing

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Speaker 1: pressure on mortgage holders. Last week, the boss of Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank set a cut will help drive corporate confidence. So

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Speaker 1: there is a lot of pressure behind the Reserve Bank today.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the boss of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank yesterday

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Speaker 2: a guy called Richard Fennel also said he expects the

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Speaker 2: rate cut today and thinks the cash rate will fall

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Speaker 2: to a more neutral level this year of about three

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Speaker 2: and a half percent, which we would all love now

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Speaker 2: if that happened. That's about eighty basis points of cuts

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Speaker 2: that effectively puts your home mortgage at about you know,

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Speaker 2: low threes or something like that. Pretty Much everyone thinks

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Speaker 2: that the Reserve Bank will cut today. Bond markets of

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Speaker 2: priced in about a twenty sorry, about a ninety percent

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Speaker 2: chance of a rate cut. Plenty of politicians from both

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Speaker 2: sides of the isle, including Opposition leader Petter Dutton, is

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Speaker 2: pushing for a rate cut given the federal election is

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Speaker 2: only a few weeks. Well, we know it's in the

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Speaker 2: next few months, but I'll probably call it in the

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Speaker 2: next few weeks.

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Speaker 1: It would be a.

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Speaker 2: Very brave bank not to pass on the rate cut.

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Speaker 2: So the Reserve Bank cuts at two thirty, it'll be

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Speaker 2: a race among the big four to come out and say, yep,

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Speaker 2: we're lowering prices. I reckon by this time, well, certainly

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Speaker 2: by this time tomorrow morning, but I reckon tonight even

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Speaker 2: There'll be a bunch of big banks that have cut

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Speaker 2: interest rates already on the basis that the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: cuts at two thirty today.

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Speaker 1: Do you expect do you think it will happen?

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Speaker 2: Do you think I think it will happen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, And we'll just see then whether no banks

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Speaker 1: would because in the past there have been banks that

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Speaker 1: pass on part, not all of it, and you reckon

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Speaker 1: that most of them will actually just go all.

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Speaker 2: Can you imagine if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates

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Speaker 2: by twenty five basis points and then west Pack and

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Speaker 2: Commoeth come out and said, this is fantastic news. We're

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Speaker 2: going to cut them by twenty basis points, not twenty

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Speaker 2: five the pylon they can't afford to do it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, we did have Matt Common last week

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Speaker 1: talking about the fact that the pressure would be on

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Speaker 1: the banks to pass them on in full. So there

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Speaker 1: is this acknowledgment that really there is the expectation from

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Speaker 1: the public. We mentioned west Pac, and the boss of Westpac,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Miller, was talking yesterday after the country's third largest

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Speaker 1: bank and sixth largest company reported a disappointing December quarter profit.

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Speaker 2: It was one point seven billion dollars net profit for

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Speaker 2: the quarter. It was down on expectations. He said it

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Speaker 2: was due to Hedge accounting. Hedge accounting, What the hell

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Speaker 2: is hedge you counting?

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you weren't asking me just that. If this

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Speaker 1: was one of those sean aylem the pop quizzes in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the shot, I'm out. I've got no idea.

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Speaker 2: It's got something to do with how it reports derivatives,

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Speaker 2: So thus far I'm with them, But anything beyond that,

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Speaker 2: no idea. It said it will reverse out. But when

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Speaker 2: any organization comes and says stuff like hedge accounting, let's

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Speaker 2: do with that, most of the world is not going

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Speaker 2: to have any idea what they're talking about it. They're

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Speaker 2: taking them at their word. The bank was sold off

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Speaker 2: after that news, down four percent, even though it seems

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Speaker 2: to have a good reason for it. The details of

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Speaker 2: west Pax mortgage book was really interesting. That's what I

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Speaker 2: took away from yesterday. Had no idea what hedge you counting?

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Speaker 2: What that was about? So just park that twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent of customers are now more than two years ahead

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Speaker 2: on their homelan repayments. Pretty cool. Mortgage delinquencies fell, as

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Speaker 2: did the number of loans on hardship so what that

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Speaker 2: is saying is, notwithstanding we've had these really high interest

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Speaker 2: rates for a long time, people are able to pay

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Speaker 2: their mortgages. Bendigo and Adelaide Bank also reported its cash

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Speaker 2: prof for the six months to the end of December

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Speaker 2: was down ten percent. Its share price fell fifteen percent.

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Speaker 2: That is a savage selloff, worst of the top two

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Speaker 2: hundred issue with Bendigate. It actually did a really good

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Speaker 2: job winning mortgage market share. In fact, it grew twice

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Speaker 2: as fast as the average for the rest of the sector,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't profitable growth, and so investors like the

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Speaker 2: fact that they're picking up a lot more business, but if

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Speaker 2: they're not making money out of it, they don't like it.

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Speaker 2: Therefore it was sold off. If you're someone looking for

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Speaker 2: a home loan, though, what this tells me is to

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Speaker 2: bend to Go and Adelaide because they're obviously offering pretty

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Speaker 2: good deals.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, we mentioned earlier that there is a great

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Speaker 1: deal of anticipation ahead of the Reserve Bank Board decision

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Speaker 1: this afternoon. Someone who is anticipating a rate cut is

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Speaker 1: Tim Lawless from core Logic, who is your guest today

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Great Interview? After the show, So we.

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Speaker 2: Talk about what a twenty five basis point cut means

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Speaker 2: in terms of the amount of money on someone's homeland

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Speaker 2: or so, how many rate cuts he expects this year,

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Speaker 2: and then more generally about what's happened to the housing

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Speaker 2: market and prices and stuff like that. It's a great chat.

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Speaker 2: It's much more than interest rates, I suppose, is how

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Speaker 2: I put it. Obviously that's where we start, but we

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Speaker 2: talk about just the state of the housing market in Australia.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it's a good conversation is coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: We talked about Bendigo and Adelaide Bank being sold off yesterday.

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Speaker 1: How did the rest of the local market perform.

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Speaker 2: There's in pisx two hundred closed down just touch to

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Speaker 2: finish at eight thousand, five hundred and thirty seven points.

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Speaker 2: It actually dropped in the morning and the bank's dropped

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Speaker 2: in the morning on that Westpak result, and then it

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Speaker 2: climbed for most of the day. Utilities and consumer staples

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Speaker 2: did best, while financials and energy stocks lagged. Gold stocks

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Speaker 2: been the best in the market all year. Well, they

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Speaker 2: didn't have such a good Places like Northern Star and

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Speaker 2: the Gray Mining were sold off as the price of

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Speaker 2: the precious metal fell. In fact, that got down below

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Speaker 2: twenty nine hundred US dollars. Announce at one point yesterday

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Speaker 2: a bit of corporate news around as you can imagine

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Speaker 2: lend release. His share price rose after it announced its

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Speaker 2: half year profit. Basically, that's a company that's in the

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Speaker 2: middle of a total overhaul. It used to be very

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Speaker 2: big on pushing into overseas markets. It's dumped that totally,

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Speaker 2: and it looks like investors are slowly coming around to

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Speaker 2: that stock. Woodside Energy share price fell three percent. It

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Speaker 2: came and it's a bit confusing, but the oil and

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Speaker 2: gas produced that issued guidance for costs and tax expenses.

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Speaker 2: Now investors looked or professional investors and analysts looked at

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Speaker 2: it and said, their dividend's not going to be as

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Speaker 2: high as we thought. As a result, that was sold down.

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Speaker 2: We'll find out next week when it posts its results.

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Speaker 2: And a quick mention of the Aussie dolla, not that

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Speaker 2: I'm going overseas Michael sixty three point sixty US cents

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Speaker 2: on a tear.

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Speaker 1: Oh there we go, Sean, We've got plenty more still coming.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about why blue Scope doesn't mind Trump's tariffs

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Speaker 1: is a good story on that one. How one state's

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Speaker 1: train dispute could end up affecting the federal government and

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Speaker 1: a fantastic story. It feels like you have included this

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Speaker 1: line just for me. Flying taxis There's more to it

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Speaker 1: than that. That flying taxis player a key role in it.

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Speaker 1: So stick around. We'll be back in a moment with

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Speaker 1: the rest of the day's business news, Shawn. A majority

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Speaker 1: of voters don't believe the federal labor government deserves to

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Speaker 1: be re elected, with Anthony Aberaneze's approval rating hitting a

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Speaker 1: record low of minus twenty one.

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Speaker 2: However, voters remain reluctant to swing behind Peter Dutton in

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Speaker 2: sufficient numbers for the coalition to win in a majority government.

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Speaker 2: Now this is coming as MP's of preparing for an election.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to jump in because this number of minus

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Speaker 1: twenty one, right, how do these work like that? Is

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Speaker 1: that is zero considered neutral and then only one is

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Speaker 1: obviously bad and just being anywhere in the positive rating

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Speaker 1: is good. It's not like other ones where you have

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Speaker 1: one hundred being kind of maximum and then color look

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Speaker 1: sentiments and things, which is based differently.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's what you've said is right, and

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Speaker 2: these swing wildly, so something good can happen and that

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Speaker 2: minus twenty one can go to minus ten and then

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Speaker 2: suddenly in three months time it's plus ten. So the

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Speaker 2: thing that really matters to the two party preferred stuff

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Speaker 2: the fifty one to forty nine percent in favor of

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Speaker 2: the coalition. That means that there's a space on the

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Speaker 2: redistributions that's occurred. And last election, if you had a

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Speaker 2: the swing to get to a fifty one forty nine

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Speaker 2: two party preferred, if you put that across the electorate

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Speaker 2: at the moment, you would see Labor losing seven or

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Speaker 2: eight seats. Seven or eight seats means they still win government,

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Speaker 2: but they need the support of the Independence. The opposition

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Speaker 2: wouldn't win government if we had that swing uniformly across

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Speaker 2: it now broadly, that's how people start tipping elections, and

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Speaker 2: so easily the hot favorite in terms of the next

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Speaker 2: government is a minority government. Albanezi Prime Minister. The Independence

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Speaker 2: kind of doing their bit.

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Speaker 1: Wow, puts them in a very powerful position.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And what it does do is out the coalition

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Speaker 2: for the following election. They were absolutely hammered last election.

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Speaker 2: The Coalition and Scott Morrison was so on the nose

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Speaker 2: they were never going to win the next election, and

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Speaker 2: it looks like they won't win the next election, but

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Speaker 2: it does mean that following one. It's you know, it's

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Speaker 2: a fair race.

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Speaker 1: It's always the bold politician who takes on the leadership

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Speaker 1: after a loss like that, isn't it, because typically they're

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Speaker 1: going to be spending at least one term in opposition,

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Speaker 1: more likely to be too, and the question is whether

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Speaker 1: or not they will last the distance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. And Penna Dunne, for all his faults,

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Speaker 2: has done a good job for his team. Yeah, and

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Speaker 2: for many Australians who believe in.

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Speaker 1: Hi him, good on him.

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Speaker 2: And Anthony Albernezi has probably disappointed some and so it's

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Speaker 2: probably closer now than people thought it would be three

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Speaker 2: years ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Peter Dunton has certainly got the Coalition back in

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Speaker 1: the race. Yep, that's exactly now. Australia's largest steelmaker, blue Scope,

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Speaker 1: says prices in the United States have jumped twenty percent

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Speaker 1: since President Donald Trump restored twenty five percent tariffs on

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Speaker 1: imported steel.

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Speaker 2: That's like two weeks, isn't it. In two weeks. Good

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Speaker 2: news for Bluescope though, because almost half its earnings are

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Speaker 2: out of the US. It's got this massive north Star

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Speaker 2: Steel mill in Ohio makes steel for cars and wife

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Speaker 2: goods and agricultural products. The how higher prices in the

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Speaker 2: US they're receiving that, They say that that's actually going

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Speaker 2: to outweigh any negative from the tariffs, which might occur

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Speaker 2: because China might dump steel in Australia, for example. But

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Speaker 2: the CEO Mark Marcella said, what the price here getting

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Speaker 2: out of the US pretty much outweighs anything else. He

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Speaker 2: announced the big drop in half year profit yesterday. Basically

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Speaker 2: it's a cyclical industry. Margins are being hit hard because

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Speaker 2: there's a massive amount of steel coming out of China.

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Speaker 2: At the moment, it's the bottom of the cycle, he said.

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Speaker 2: The outlook is stronger. As a result, Bluescope's share price

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Speaker 2: jumped thirteen percent, and we have spoken about his NonStop

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Speaker 2: share price is trained on future earnings, not past earnings.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, there's a major rail dispute going on in

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Speaker 1: New South Wales and this is one of those examples

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Speaker 1: of a local story or a state story that can

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Speaker 1: become a federal story very very quickly, because federal labor

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Speaker 1: is actually worried that it will hurt the party's chances

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Speaker 1: at the upcoming election.

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Speaker 2: So the Prime Minister, to Anthony Alberizi, is expected to

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Speaker 2: call an election. Obviously the rates decision today is a

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Speaker 2: big part of it, but there's other things like this

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Speaker 2: massive rail dispute. Well it's not a massive rail dispute,

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Speaker 2: it's just a dispute that's affecting masses of people. Peter

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Speaker 2: Dutton and the Opposition have called on Anthony Albersi to

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Speaker 2: step in to what's happening in New South Wales to

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Speaker 2: prevent the strikes. The disputed pay erupted again over the

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Speaker 2: weekend with long delays and cancelations on the Sydney rail network. Yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt spoke to both parties over

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Speaker 2: the weekend, So the Feds are involved. For federal labor,

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Speaker 2: there's just a bit of a perception that unions are

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Speaker 2: gaining too much ground almost and they're considered a little

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Speaker 2: bit too powerful and that could damage labor at the polls.

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Speaker 2: That's what the fear is with Anthony Abernesi in his team. Now,

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Speaker 2: the Men's government, which is a labor government, will apply

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Speaker 2: to the Fair Work Commission for a six month suspension

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Speaker 2: of further industrial action pending a resolution. I'm sure Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albernesi is hoping that comes to fruition.

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Speaker 1: Yeahed. You can imagine the phone calls that are being

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Speaker 1: made behind the scenes. Come on, Chris, get this resolved.

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Speaker 1: The A two milk company, which we've talked about a lot,

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Speaker 1: particularly a couple of years ago, had a long term

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Speaker 1: strategy targeting infants in China, has now added the older

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Speaker 1: generation to its focus. In the world's second most populous nation,

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Speaker 1: it's a big, big, big potential customer base.

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Speaker 2: Is this the second like old Chinese people story we've

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Speaker 2: done in two days?

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Speaker 1: After the train the Tinda. Yeah, we've got ballroom dancing

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Speaker 1: and Marshall on on the train because.

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Speaker 2: Did you say the video?

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Speaker 1: No?

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Speaker 2: No, it's worth a video, is it? If you go

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Speaker 2: to ft dot com, if you've got a subscription, it

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Speaker 2: is worth it. The dancing on the train is spectacular.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Because suddenly there is this realization that the aging

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Speaker 1: population in China is absolutely huge and there is money

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Speaker 1: to be made.

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Speaker 2: They've got this. The one top policy is hitting home.

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Speaker 2: So we've got this aging population. So a two milks,

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Speaker 2: that market is worth that twenty five billion US dollars. Right,

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Speaker 2: So it's a huge market and A too Milk has

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Speaker 2: been pushing to that, but it's very crowded market as well,

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Speaker 2: and so they've suddenly realized, Okay, let's start thinking about

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Speaker 2: products that support immunity, bone gut, and heart health, and

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Speaker 2: that really covers that aging population because there's so many.

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Speaker 2: The scene's market at the moment is worth about one

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Speaker 2: point five billion dollars. It isn't catered for anywhere near

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Speaker 2: like the infant market. So yesterday at Milk Company came out,

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Speaker 2: it announced an increase in revenue, an increased in profit,

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Speaker 2: It gave its first dividend. And this is a stock

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Speaker 2: that's really been struggled for you know, two or three

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Speaker 2: years now really post COVID, it's struggled. Good news yesterday

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Speaker 2: in said is looking at at that older market in

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Speaker 2: China and its share price was up nineteen percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Good day, Yeah, great day. Okay. Turning to international news, now,

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Speaker 1: Sean and European countries coalescing over the United States' attitude.

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Speaker 1: The US's attitude to Russia and Ukraine. With the BLOCKS

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Speaker 1: president saying the EU must be involved in negotiations about

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Speaker 1: the end of the war.

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Speaker 2: They're getting a bit antsy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, why wouldn't they, And especially after JD Vance's speech

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Speaker 1: walking there and being very very direct, pretty much an

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Speaker 1: intervention in domestic politics, absolutely, which was staggering. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: so you can understand that that most European leaders are

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Speaker 1: probably going hang on where you want to see it,

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Speaker 1: at the table for end of discussions are actually being

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Speaker 1: taken place.

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Speaker 2: I mean the Antonio Costa, who's the EU president, He's quote,

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Speaker 2: I've got it here. He said, if Trump really wants

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Speaker 2: that the Europeans assume greater responsibility for their own security,

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Speaker 2: then of course the Europeans need to be the key

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Speaker 2: factor in designing the new security architecture. It kind of

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Speaker 2: makes sense because in their meeting in Paris this week,

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Speaker 2: they want to talk about what Donald Trump is talking

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Speaker 2: about and the fact that he's negotiating with Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 2: They say, as in Trump administration says they can end

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Speaker 2: the war, and the Europeans are saying, well, hold on,

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Speaker 2: shouldn't we have a say in this?

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Speaker 1: And fair enough, can we talk about flying taxis.

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Speaker 2: Down, We're getting there.

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Speaker 1: We're there. We are well, we're not there with we're

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Speaker 1: flying taxis, but we're there. To the story, the world

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Speaker 1: skies sean are becoming crowded, posing a risk to airlines

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Speaker 1: because you've got rockets and drones and in the near

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Speaker 1: future flying taxis all beginning to use airspace.

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Speaker 2: So there's a huge number of new rockets pioneered by

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Speaker 2: x Elon Musk's space x being sent up there into

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Speaker 2: the atmosphere, and it's exacerbating a problem as a growing

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Speaker 2: commercial space industry shares this airspace. So there are tens

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Speaker 2: of thousands of passenger planes up there. You've got drones,

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Speaker 2: you've got these electronic no I say it again, the

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Speaker 2: electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft EV tolls, which you

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Speaker 2: probably know more about than I do.

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Speaker 1: There's some great videos.

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Speaker 2: They're fine taxis.

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Speaker 1: They are amazing to see these things being tested.

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Speaker 2: So you've got planes, drones, EV tolls. It just makes

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Speaker 2: managing airspace it's very, very complicated. Now. The number of

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Speaker 2: passenger planes is forecast to grow by third to more

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Speaker 2: than thirty six thousand aircraft by twenty thirty four. According

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Speaker 2: to Oliver Wyman, Big National Consultancy International Consultancy. By that point,

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Speaker 2: they'll be sharing the skuies with more than ten thousand

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Speaker 2: EV tolls according to Bain, and thousands of rocket launches.

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Speaker 2: We actually saw it recently when Quanis delayed flights between

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Speaker 2: Australia and South Africa after the US government warned about

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Speaker 2: the risk of SpaceX rocket paths re entering the atmosphere.

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Speaker 2: So it's actually here already and it's going to get worse.

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Speaker 2: You love this story.

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Speaker 1: It's an incredible story. That's kind of It's kind of

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Speaker 1: for a nervous flyer. The last thing you want to

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Speaker 1: think about is kind of spaceship parts re entering.

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Speaker 2: Be unlucky, tho, wouldn't you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you have to be unlucky to be involved in

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Speaker 1: any kind of air incident, but that would be even

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Speaker 1: more unlucky to be hit by a piece of flying

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Speaker 1: space debris coming back through the atmosphere. All right, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. You

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Speaker 1: guess today is Tim Lawless from Core Logic, And don't

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Speaker 1: forget to check out the Afternoon Report this afternoon, where

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Speaker 1: we will have all of the details from the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Board's decision. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Michael, if for God, ask fear and greed most important

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Speaker 2: today because that's all about interest rates.

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Speaker 1: Ask Fear and greed. Coming out at midday, this is

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Speaker 1: where we answer listener questions and a great question from

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Speaker 1: Howard today.

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Speaker 2: It's all about so we always talk about how good

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Speaker 2: it is that interest rates for what about the losers?

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Speaker 2: It's a great question for Howard.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly, thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the eighteenth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.