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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the Week Ahead. I'm Sean Alma,

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Speaker 1: and as always I'm joined by economists Stephen Coculis. You'll

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Speaker 1: find him at the Cook dot com and on x

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Speaker 1: using the handle the Cook thgk are UK. Stephen, Good morning.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Sean. Look, it's not a big.

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Speaker 1: Week for economic data, but there are a couple of

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Speaker 1: well ones of talk and ones and minutes from Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Board meeting which would be particularly interesting given and

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Speaker 1: we didn't get an interest rate cut a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: Yes, even though there's yet not a lot of top

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Speaker 2: tier data coming from the Bureau of Statistics or anyone else,

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Speaker 2: were to be hearing two really important parts, and they're

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Speaker 2: in the context of that shock decision of the eighth

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Speaker 2: of July, when just about all economists and certainly the

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Speaker 2: money markets were pricing in your ninety six percent probability

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Speaker 2: of a eight cup that didn't happen. Are the minutes

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Speaker 2: of that meeting, and we had the six voting no change,

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Speaker 2: three voting for a cup. So the minutes of the meetings,

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Speaker 2: which come out tomorrow, in fact, will be really interesting

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Speaker 2: to sort of see the nuances that were there the

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Speaker 2: forcefulness of any of the debate that was going on

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Speaker 2: around the board table on the on hold or will

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Speaker 2: we cut those sorts of issues, and from a markers perspective,

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Speaker 2: why didn't they cut? And we've had the information coming

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Speaker 2: out subsequently on the soggy labor market numbers and these

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Speaker 2: sorts of things to sort of put a question mark

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Speaker 2: about why the RBA didn't pull the trigger. And to

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Speaker 2: round that out, we've actually got the Governor, Michelle Bullock

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Speaker 2: speaking at the Anika Foundation later this week. She'll give

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Speaker 2: an update on the economy. No doubt you'll be exposed

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Speaker 2: to Q and A section, so the very smart people

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Speaker 2: in the room will be able to ask a whole

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Speaker 2: lot of questions about that on whole decision. What's coming

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Speaker 2: next for the RBA where they shocked about the labor

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Speaker 2: market numbers that came out last week, So for RBA watches,

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Speaker 2: it's a really good chance to get an update.

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Speaker 1: What do you think they was saying about those labor

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Speaker 1: force figures last week? The unemployment rate went from four

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Speaker 1: point one to four point three percent, highest and more

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Speaker 1: than four years. Having said that pre pandemic, we're always

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Speaker 1: a lot higher than that yeah, Still, what do you

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Speaker 1: think they'll say?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the interest thing about the four point three

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate is that is the peak that they were

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Speaker 2: forecast in the most recent forecast from the RBA, in

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Speaker 2: the I think was the May State non monetary policy,

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Speaker 2: he said the unemployment rate would hit four point three

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Speaker 2: percent by the middle of the year. So here we are,

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Speaker 2: and a funny way, we're on ron target. That's probably

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Speaker 2: not yet the concern. But when you look at the

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Speaker 2: forecast for the remainder of twenty twenty five and into

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and the early part of twenty twenty seven,

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Speaker 2: it was the unemployment rate to stay at four point

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Speaker 2: three percent. Now, yeah, we do know the economy is

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Speaker 2: still a bit sluggish that we do know that the

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Speaker 2: global issues out there from Trump tariffs and trade wars

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Speaker 2: and these sorts of things are more negative rather than positive.

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Speaker 2: So that's going to put a downside of it. So

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Speaker 2: this might be one of the questions for the governor

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Speaker 2: when he speaks later this week is are they still

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Speaker 2: confident that the unemployment rate will peak at four point

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Speaker 2: three percent? So that's certainly why the markets having been

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Speaker 2: sort of battling and bruised by the RBA last time,

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Speaker 2: is still really confident of a rate cut when they

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Speaker 2: next meet in the middle of August.

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Speaker 1: Now, one of the reasons that they didn't cut race

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Speaker 1: is obviously they're worried about inflation. And we had gotten

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Speaker 1: was it May inflation monthly numbers it's correat yeah, which

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Speaker 1: isn't quite complete. But the Australian Bureau Statistics is saying

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Speaker 1: that they're actually going to have much better monthly figures

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Speaker 1: by the end of the year, aren't they, Because and

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Speaker 1: I mean and that's kind of important because it's much

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Speaker 1: more real time than quarterly data.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, when we look back at what the governor said

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Speaker 2: about the no cut decision a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: she did sort of put some flesh on the bones

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Speaker 2: of that decision by saying that they're not confident that

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Speaker 2: the monthly inflation numbers as they currently stand are all

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Speaker 2: that comprehensive. And yes, the beginning month of each quarter

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Speaker 2: is really only goods prices the middle month, so May

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Speaker 2: in instances does include a lot of services, but there

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Speaker 2: are a big gaps in each of the categories where

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Speaker 2: prices change that are not in the monthly numbers. That

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Speaker 2: are in the courtly numbers, so that's why she said

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Speaker 2: she wanted to wait till the quarterly numbers come out

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Speaker 2: at the end of this month. So the Bureau Statistics

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Speaker 2: who compile these numbers have been very transparent. They're doing

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Speaker 2: a fantastic job. They said that these monthly numbers as

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Speaker 2: they exist now are still well, they're good, but they're

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Speaker 2: still a little bit experimental. They've come out just over

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Speaker 2: the weekend and now, as reported the papers this morning,

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Speaker 2: by November, so not that long. The monthly figures will

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Speaker 2: be of a quality that not only the markets will say, well,

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Speaker 2: that's a legitimate reading on inflation. It's not excluding some

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Speaker 2: goods or some services. It's a comprehensive inflation read like

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Speaker 2: in other countries, and there'll be no qualms about using

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Speaker 2: the monthly numbers to say, well, inflation's decelerating, accelerating, or

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Speaker 2: whatever the case may be. So bigtick to the abs.

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Speaker 2: That's going to be happening by November. I think it's

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Speaker 2: been reported as so in the not too distant future

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Speaker 2: will have monthly inflation numbers that will be comprehensive, reliable,

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Speaker 2: and that the RBA can confidently adjust policy with that

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Speaker 2: information and knowledge that the monthly numbers are just as

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Speaker 2: good as the quarting numbers.

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Speaker 1: Perish the thought confident reliable data.

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Speaker 2: Well yeah, that's but just take your step back. You

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Speaker 2: think for something like inflation, you have a pretty good

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Speaker 2: number because we do know of potatoes. We don't know

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Speaker 2: the price of stuff you can measure, you can read

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Speaker 2: it on the internet. We do know those sorts of things.

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Speaker 2: So you think there'll be one area that have pretty

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Speaker 2: good good price.

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Speaker 1: Data on let's type. So Stephen Joe the Week, Thank you, Sean.

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Speaker 1: That was economist Stephen cook cale it's better known as

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Speaker 1: the Kirk. You can find him at the cook dot

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Speaker 1: com and follow him on x Using to handle the Kirk,

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Speaker 1: i'mb Sean Aylmer and this is beer and greed. Weak Ahead,