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Speaker 1: Welcome to fear and greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: A surprise fall in the unemployment rate increases the odds

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Speaker 1: of a rate hike in a fortnight's time. Oppositionally to

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Speaker 1: Susan Lee is under pressure to keep her job after

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Speaker 1: the National Party walks away from the Federal Coalition and

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump backs down on taking Greenland by force and

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Speaker 1: on imposing extra tariffs on European countries. Plus, the IPO

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Speaker 1: outlook in Australia improves, and scientists discover sixty eight thousand

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Speaker 1: year old cave paintings. It is Friday, the twenty third

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Speaker 1: of January twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Michael, I know it's a good show when you're out

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Speaker 2: of breath after the introduction. It happened yesterday, happened again today.

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Speaker 2: I'm loving it.

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Speaker 1: Oh, there is a lot of news around at the moment.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, Sean, A jump in employment

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Speaker 1: and a drop in the unemployment rate has boosted the

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Speaker 1: chance of an interest rate hike next month. As a result,

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Speaker 1: bank works works very hard to keep inflation in check.

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Speaker 2: About sixty two three hundred people found work in December,

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Speaker 2: according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pushing the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate down to four point one percent. The participation rate,

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Speaker 2: the number of people looking for work increased that made

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Speaker 2: the figures even more impressive. The strong data pushed bond

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Speaker 2: neils higher, and investors have now priced in a fifty

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Speaker 2: percent chance of a rate hike next month a one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent chance of an increase in May. Last month,

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Banks side of the tight labor market as

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Speaker 2: the reason why it won't be cutting rates. Based on

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Speaker 2: yesterday's data alone, the labor market has just gotten tighter,

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Speaker 2: hence we really are looking at rate rises. Federal treasure

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Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers welcomed the result and said the labor market

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Speaker 2: was showing resilience given the turbulent global economy. Michaelip puts

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Speaker 2: plenty of focus on next week's December quarter inflation data.

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Speaker 2: If the underlying rate of inflation is significant above the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Banks two to three percent range, then a rate

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Speaker 2: hike in eleven days time after the next Board meeting

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Speaker 2: is very likely.

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Speaker 1: Now Sean at four point one percent right, the unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate is that it's lowest since last May. It's near

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Speaker 1: historical lows. The thing that I don't understand is the

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Speaker 1: economy really traveling well enough that well that it is

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Speaker 1: creating that many new jobs.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's hard not to be slightly skeptical about those

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Speaker 2: figures yesterday. If you take the average out of the

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Speaker 2: past half year, about seventeen thousand new jobs are appearing

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Speaker 2: each month, So that kind of sounds about right. That

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Speaker 2: means the unemployment rate shouldn't really change that just keeping

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Speaker 2: up with new members into the workforce. Yesterday, the abs

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Speaker 2: to the unemployment rate fell because of things like a

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Speaker 2: jump in our's work to fall and underemployment, and a

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Speaker 2: bunch of fifteen to twenty four year olds shifting into

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Speaker 2: the workforce that pushed up employment growth. Now, fifteen to

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Speaker 2: twenty four year olds, you think, well, December Christmas, maybe

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Speaker 2: all these people have taken part time jobs. The numbers

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Speaker 2: yesterday there were mostly full time jobs. That's kind of

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Speaker 2: where this has thrown things askew a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Finishing up school heading into finishing up UNI, finishing up school.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, like clutching out straws. But it's funny

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Speaker 1: how much you can read into the data, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, there's a banks forecast an unemployment rate of

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Speaker 2: clase to four and a half percent over the next

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Speaker 2: few months. Leading indicators things like job ads suggest the

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Speaker 2: market isn't that strong. But I just bring it back

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Speaker 2: to interest rates, because you know, some people like higher

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Speaker 2: interest rates, some people like lower interest rates. Certainly, yesterday's

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Speaker 2: figures look towards pushing rates higher, but really it all

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Speaker 2: depends on next week's inflation figures.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how did the market respond yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, normally the prospect of higher interestrates will hit the AX,

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Speaker 2: but I overshadowing the news was US President Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: declaration that the US won't use force to take Greenland.

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Speaker 2: More on that shortly. That helped the SMPA six two

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Speaker 2: hundred close up three quarters of a percent to eighty

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Speaker 2: eight forty nine points eighty eight hundred and forty nine points.

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Speaker 2: Really strong day for the banks. We haven't been able

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Speaker 2: to say that for a while. National Australian Bank raised

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Speaker 2: more than three percent, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac jumped two percent.

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Speaker 2: Others to do pretty well. West Farmers, Goodman Group, wood Side.

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Speaker 2: Not such a good day for the big miners. Four

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Speaker 2: to squ Metals was off five percent of course we've

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Speaker 2: been talking about when will behp overtake Commonwealth Bank. Twenty

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Speaker 2: four hours ago there was just a billion dollars in it.

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Speaker 2: As we sit here this morning, it's about nine or

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Speaker 2: ten billion dollars in it, So you know, Comwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: went up, PHP went down worst on the Boss yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the gold diggers, mostly reflecting a drop in the price

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Speaker 2: of the precious metal currency markets. The Ausie dollar pushed

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Speaker 2: beyond sixty eight US cents. Go you good thing, highest

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Speaker 2: level since October twenty twenty four. Anyone anyone going to

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Speaker 2: the US in let's say, may Michael taking the.

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Speaker 1: Family yep, raise your hand, yep, yep.

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Speaker 2: Great news if you go in the head stateside go

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Speaker 2: the Aussie.

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Speaker 1: I love that, I'm going to the US, and suddenly

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Speaker 1: it shoots up. If you were going to the US

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Speaker 1: somehow you would have triggered some kind of economic catastrophe

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Speaker 1: and it will plummeted. It's just the way it goes now, Sean,

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Speaker 1: the Federal Coalition has split for the second time this year.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking about this has been building to this

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Speaker 1: all week now, on the back of the Nationals front

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Speaker 1: bench quitting the Shadow cabinet on Wednesday night, Liberal Party

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Speaker 1: leader Susan Lee is now under a huge amount of pressure,

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Speaker 1: not just to reconvene the coalition and try and keep

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Speaker 1: things together, but just to keep a job.

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Speaker 2: Yes. So yesterday morning, NATS leader David Little proud to

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Speaker 2: the tie up with the Liberal Party was untenable and

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Speaker 2: accused Lee of mismanaging the relationship. He said a time

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Speaker 2: apart would be good for them. He did actually leave

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Speaker 2: open the possibility of re reunification if Lee were replaced.

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Speaker 2: Media this morning's reporting unidentified sources within the leaves that

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Speaker 2: saying Lee must go. The Libs nor the Mats of

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Speaker 2: the NATS conformed government on their own. They need a coalition.

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Speaker 2: Former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull waded into the debate.

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Speaker 2: He basically said the split made the conservative side of

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Speaker 2: politics more unelectable than they were before. The background to this,

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Speaker 2: it really all started on Sunday night, when members of

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Speaker 2: the coalition agreed to support the government's hate speech and

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Speaker 2: gun legislation with amendments. The amendments were made, but three

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Speaker 2: National MPs voted against it. Lee said the three had

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Speaker 2: to resign for breaking shadow cabinet solidarity. They resigned, Then

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Speaker 2: the rest of the NATS front bench followed. I don't

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Speaker 2: think either Susan Lee or David Little Proud have done

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Speaker 2: themselves proud in how this has been handled. And you

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Speaker 2: know we always say this, a strong opposition is a

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Speaker 2: good thing for government and at the moment the conservative

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Speaker 2: side of politics is an absolute shambles.

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Speaker 1: Yep, absolute Basker case. All right, quick Breaksean lots still

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Speaker 1: to come back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news, Shawn. There are signs of improvements

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Speaker 1: in the IPO market after a tough couple of years,

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Speaker 1: including just thirty five listings on the ASX last year. OUCH.

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Speaker 2: On average, there should be about eighty to eighty five

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Speaker 2: listings per year. Twenty twenty five was an absolute shockup now.

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Speaker 2: There are reasons for it, economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Liberation

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Speaker 2: Day tariffs did nothing to help that. Companies are delaying

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Speaker 2: their listings, you know, the rise of the private credits

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Speaker 2: sector that's actually allowed companies to access money without having

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Speaker 2: to list. They've preferred to stay private. All sorts of

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Speaker 2: reasons for it, but you can't hide the fact that

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Speaker 2: there was only thirty five IPOs on the AX last year,

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Speaker 2: HLB Me, HLB Man Judd Po HLB start all over again, Michael,

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Speaker 2: Too many acronyms on this one. HLB Man Judd IPO

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Speaker 2: Watch report shows that he thirty five companies listed on

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Speaker 2: the AX last year, was an improvement on the twenty

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Speaker 2: nine listings in twenty twenty four and thirty two in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, but overall not a good time for

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Speaker 2: the AX. The better news is that HLB Man Judd

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Speaker 2: reckons the early indications that twenty twenty six could be

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Speaker 2: stronger than in recent years, and again a bunch of

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Speaker 2: reasons for that. Private credit not quite as popular as

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Speaker 2: it once had been. If you get things like Canva listing,

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Speaker 2: that will give a real filip to the rest of

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Speaker 2: the market. Title funds raised felled to just three point

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Speaker 2: two billion dollars last year. Average funds raised per IPI

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Speaker 2: dropped to ninety two million dollars. Oh, Michael, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to stop this story. It's just've got a lot of

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Speaker 2: good news in it. No.

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Speaker 1: Plus, well, there's one piece of good news. It's that

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Speaker 1: I am marking on the calendar this time next year

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Speaker 1: so that when the annual HLB Man Judd IPO watch

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Speaker 1: report comes back around. We can hear you battle your way,

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Speaker 1: battle your way through that title once again. The share

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Speaker 1: price of Northern Star, which is Australia's biggest gold miner Sean,

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Speaker 1: tumbled eight percent yesterday, not only because of falling prices,

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Speaker 1: but also as a dispute between the CEO and investors escalates.

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Speaker 2: Generally, CEOs do their best to blackade or at least

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Speaker 2: tolerate investors and analysts, but Northern Star Stewart Tonkin is

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Speaker 2: clearly getting frustrated with the investment community. Yesterday, he accused

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Speaker 2: investors of focusing on Minuche after his performance and disclosure

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Speaker 2: standards were called into question during pretty fiery call with

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Speaker 2: analysts and investors. According to the Finn, basically they had

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Speaker 2: the call ahead of the market opening. He had to

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Speaker 2: go at the investors. They hung up the call, the

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Speaker 2: market opened and seven the Northern Stars share price fell

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Speaker 2: seven and a half percent three billion dollars. Just like that.

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Speaker 1: Take do you reckon? Stewart Tonkin finished the call. We

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Speaker 1: goo that went well?

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Speaker 2: How the.

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Speaker 1: Market opens? Maybe not.

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Speaker 2: Now. Having said that, Northern Star shares hit a record

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Speaker 2: high earlier this week. The company's market value was forty billion.

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Speaker 2: I think we said it made of the top fifteen

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Speaker 2: on the ASEX. So it has done really well. So

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Speaker 2: the sell off yesterday, it's not like it's kind of

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's come from a really high base. Still,

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Speaker 2: the selloff is pretty severe and the analysts are not

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Speaker 2: getting on with the CEO.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll have a good battle, don't you. It's just

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Speaker 1: makes it all exciting. The OECD SEAN has called on

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Speaker 1: the Albanese government to reform taxes, be more transparent on

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Speaker 1: commodity revenues and means test The ndis in an effort

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Speaker 1: to repair the budget's fiscal outlook.

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Speaker 2: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says spending pressures

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Speaker 2: are a concern across federal and state budgets and spending

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Speaker 2: reviews are needed to improve cost effectiveness. The report which

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Speaker 2: says there is no longer any strong need for fiscal

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Speaker 2: support to household or firms. That's what it says. In

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Speaker 2: other words, the government should pull back on supportive spending.

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Speaker 2: Australian households debt burden is now among the largest in

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Speaker 2: the OECD. Long term fiscal pressures need to be addressed,

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Speaker 2: it says.

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Speaker 1: Don't mean to be cynical, but really a call from

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Speaker 1: the OECD to reform taxes is it going to lead anywhere? Sean, Well, it's.

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Speaker 2: One of those ones. What you're really trying to say

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Speaker 2: is who cares? But you know, we're trying to sell

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Speaker 2: the story. We're a podcast trying to put interesting stuff inside.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting whenever an international body has something to say

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Speaker 1: about Australia. But I mean, really, it feels like everyone's

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Speaker 1: a little bit preoccupied here at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Right right, We'll dump the OECD next time around, all right.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'll let them know. I'm sure sure they'll be

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Speaker 1: really bothered by that. Well, turning to international news now,

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump, as we mentioned at the top

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Speaker 1: of the show, is back down on threats to take

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Speaker 1: Greenland by force and also back down on promises to

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Speaker 1: impose new tariffs on European countries after he said the

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Speaker 1: parties involved had reached quote a framework of a future deal.

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Speaker 2: Comments were a relief to financial markets and must say

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Speaker 2: Wall Street rallied. The price of gold fell after speaking

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Speaker 2: in Davos, in which he was at Davos, so he

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Speaker 2: took off plane took off, had to return because there

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Speaker 2: was a problem, arrived in Davos three hours late, gave

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Speaker 2: his speech, basically stood there, criticized well. In his speech,

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Speaker 2: he criticized both Canada's Mark Carney and Francis Emanuel mccron.

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Speaker 2: Then he went on social media and he said he

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Speaker 2: had had a very productive meeting with the Secretary General

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Speaker 2: of NATO, Mark Rutt, who's a Dutch guy. Trump went

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Speaker 2: on to say a framework of a future deal with

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Speaker 2: respect to Greenland and the entire Arctic region had been formulated.

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Speaker 2: He added with a typical flourish I quote, this solution,

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Speaker 2: if consummated, will be a great one for the United

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Speaker 2: States of America and all NATO nations end quote. Basically

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Speaker 2: announcement totally de escalated tensions between Europe and the US

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Speaker 2: markets too. Who knows what a framework of a future

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Speaker 2: deal is and who knows what it actually means with

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Speaker 2: Greenland and the NATO alliance.

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Speaker 1: We will wait to be informed via truth social That's right.

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Speaker 1: I suspect. A stenciled outline of a hand found on

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Speaker 1: the Indonesian island of Sulawesi is the world's oldest known

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Speaker 1: cave painting. Researchers say it shows a red outline of

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Speaker 1: a hand whose fingers were changed to create a claw

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Speaker 1: like Brotief.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is very cool. The painting has been dated

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Speaker 2: to at least sixty seven eight hundred years ago, around

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Speaker 2: eleven hundred years before the previous oldest cave painting, which

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Speaker 2: was a Handstancil in Spain. According to reporting the BBC,

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Speaker 2: to find strengthens the argument that humans our species Homo sapiens,

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Speaker 2: reached the wider Australia New Guinea land mass known as

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Speaker 2: the Whole as Ahl around fifteen thousand years earlier then

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Speaker 2: researchers had believed. Over the past decade, a series of

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Speaker 2: discoveries on Silawi has overturned the old idea that art

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Speaker 2: abstract thinking that type of thing in Homo sapiens suddenly

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Speaker 2: burst into life in the Ice Age Europe and spread

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Speaker 2: from there. It actually suggests that it was based more

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Speaker 2: innate to our species as opposed to something learned. The

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Speaker 2: professor Adam Brum, who's from Griffith University here in Australia,

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Speaker 2: co led the project. He told BBC News that it

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Speaker 2: adds to the emerging view that there was no awakening

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Speaker 2: for humanity in Europe. It was actually just innate that

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Speaker 2: this is the stuff we can do as Homo sapiens.

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Speaker 2: What a cool story. Oh that is really I'm actually

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Speaker 2: going to put my hand up for that one, Michael Oh,

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Speaker 2: to use on the Saturday edition to Saturday edition.

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Speaker 1: Oh, that's a shame. That's a really good story. That's

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Speaker 1: a really good story on the Saturda edition as a competition.

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Speaker 1: So I do not like the sound.

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Speaker 2: Do you really think our colleague and dodgy judge Adam Lang,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna go for that one.

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Speaker 1: I'm not say sure, He'll ask what the economic impact

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Speaker 1: of it is, sure, and then he will rule against it,

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Speaker 1: and he will rule in favor of whatever. I'll use

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Speaker 1: the OECD story right, because they're calling for tax reas,

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Speaker 1: and that one will win right all the way. It's

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Speaker 1: in the way you play the judge. Up next is

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A Today, speaking with Domains

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Speaker 1: Nikola Powell, all about the house prices for twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five and the fact that we've now had twelve consecutive

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Speaker 1: sect quarters of growth and whether that is now basically

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Speaker 1: a structural shift in the housing market rather than just

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Speaker 1: a regular price cycle, and also what happens this year

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Speaker 1: if rates do we increase once or twice and what

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Speaker 1: it means for the value of our dwellings Sean, Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, the twenty third of January twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us on

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Speaker 1: the on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson And that was here and Greed had a great day.

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Speaker 1: M