WEBVTT - Is the budget backlash hurting Labor?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. The

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<v Speaker 1>federal budget has been hit by a fierce campaign from

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<v Speaker 1>large sections of the media and a handful of high

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<v Speaker 1>profile millennial entrepreneurs, but so far Labour's polling has remained

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<v Speaker 1>relatively unscathed. But that doesn't mean voters are happy. People

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<v Speaker 1>might not be shifting their votes over this budget, but

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<v Speaker 1>many still feel there's nothing in it for them right

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<v Speaker 1>now for the coalition. That should be an opening instead

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<v Speaker 1>one nation's turning that frustration into real momentum. Today, director

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<v Speaker 1>of Strategy and Campaigns at Redbridge Group Cos Samaris on

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<v Speaker 1>Labour's budget woes, the coalition's failure to capitalize, and the

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<v Speaker 1>populist rights growing hold on Australian politics. It's Saturday, May

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<v Speaker 1>twenty three. It's good to see you again. This week

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<v Speaker 1>the Treasurer has been doing a bit of a media

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<v Speaker 1>blitz defending the government's latest budget. They've been facing some

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<v Speaker 1>pretty big attack campaigns from the opposition and from some

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<v Speaker 1>corners of the media.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a government they're just run out of money

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<v Speaker 2>and it's coming after Australian's money and it's doing that

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<v Speaker 2>through tax sites.

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<v Speaker 3>Not just but this is a budget built on lies.

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<v Speaker 2>It's built on higher deficits, more debt, lower living standards

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<v Speaker 2>and fewer homes.

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<v Speaker 1>So how much of a hit has the government actually

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<v Speaker 1>taken in the polls?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, right now, I would say zero, because what we

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<v Speaker 3>do know about how long it takes for any political

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<v Speaker 3>news to actually be absorbed by enough people in the

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<v Speaker 3>country for it to be statistically viable as a captured audience.

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<v Speaker 4>It takes a.

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<v Speaker 3>While for that to actually happen. And so really the

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<v Speaker 3>only people I think would have tuned into the budget

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<v Speaker 3>on those who are negatively impacted, so clearly people with shares,

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<v Speaker 3>people who are negative gearing, who may have checked it

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<v Speaker 3>out to see whether it's grandfather or not. But based

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<v Speaker 3>on a lot of the qualitative research we've done over

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<v Speaker 3>the last week or so, there's been very little cut through,

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<v Speaker 3>except for amongst younger Australians who think it didn't go

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<v Speaker 3>far enough in recalibrating the iniquity.

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<v Speaker 1>What did you make of the news? Pilot said fifty

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<v Speaker 1>two percent of the people feel the budget will leave

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<v Speaker 1>them worse off.

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<v Speaker 3>The latest polls show the PM's popularity has nosedart voters

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<v Speaker 3>are threatening to walk away from the major parties and

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<v Speaker 3>barely anyone thinks they're better off.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think that's accurate And if so, where's that

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<v Speaker 1>sentiment coming from.

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<v Speaker 3>That sentiment's coming from a general sentiment across the country

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<v Speaker 3>that the country's heading the wrong direction. And that's really

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<v Speaker 3>a manifestation, not necessarily whether government is performing well or not.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just that they think the world around them is

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<v Speaker 3>in disarray. The economy he's struggling as a fuel crisis

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<v Speaker 3>and inflationory crisis. They're being buffeted by one crisis after another.

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<v Speaker 3>They've not seen daylight since the pandemic. The mental state

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<v Speaker 3>of the Austraian populace is probably rock bottom, and it

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<v Speaker 3>really is not always about politics.

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<v Speaker 1>What have you made of the overall reaction from the

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<v Speaker 1>media in the days and now weeks after the budget.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I'd say it's a campaign that I've seen run

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<v Speaker 3>many times. It works for a particular group of Australians,

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<v Speaker 3>much older Australians, but it's completely tone deaf when it

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<v Speaker 3>comes to the sentiment that we are seeing expressed by

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<v Speaker 3>younger Australians, and that is most younger Australians think that

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<v Speaker 3>the system, the tax system is not engineered for them

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<v Speaker 3>full stop, and most of these are younger Australians, are salaried.

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<v Speaker 3>Contrary to the narrative that has been put out to

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<v Speaker 3>the last week, they're not all tech bros.

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<v Speaker 4>They don't have.

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<v Speaker 1>Jazz millennial entrepreneurs.

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<v Speaker 4>That's right.

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<v Speaker 3>The vast majority of them belong to that renter cohort,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly in Sydney, Melbourne and now increasingly in cities like

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<v Speaker 3>Brisbane and Perth and Adelaide. They are overwhelmingly people with

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<v Speaker 3>no political power, no asset power, no financial power, and

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<v Speaker 3>they want someone to go into bat for them. And hence,

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<v Speaker 3>so far, I think that the Labor government took that

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<v Speaker 3>positive step forward. Then you can do a lot more

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<v Speaker 3>and more importantly, I think that the political fallout from

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<v Speaker 3>this budget is going to be pretty minimal.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned that Labor hasn't really taken a hit in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of its primary vote. It's steady thirty one according

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<v Speaker 1>to newspar but the Coalition has gone down to twenty

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<v Speaker 1>and one Nation has gone up to twenty seven percent.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's right. Why is one nation coming out on top?

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<v Speaker 3>Cause so what we're seeing is is that news polls

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<v Speaker 3>One Nation vote bounces around a lot and so does

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<v Speaker 3>ours when whenever we publish numbers. Because we are living

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<v Speaker 3>for a transitional period. We are seeing a complete restructure

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<v Speaker 3>of the center right of politics. That's going from a

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<v Speaker 3>process now where people will move from one position to

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<v Speaker 3>the next over time, but it will eventually settle to

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<v Speaker 3>around what we're seeing where one nation will probably be

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<v Speaker 3>sitting in the high twenties and the coalition on a

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<v Speaker 3>good day will break twenty.

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<v Speaker 1>In your view, because is Alberanzi as Prime Minister doing

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<v Speaker 1>enough to about the rise of the populace right here?

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<v Speaker 1>This is bigger than making sure government business fronts smoothly

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<v Speaker 1>while the other side tea is it south apart? This

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<v Speaker 1>is really actually about the soul of the country, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's right. And really it's also for them being

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<v Speaker 3>the labor government and the labor camp carefully observing who

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<v Speaker 3>is their constituency and the budget was pretty clear and

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<v Speaker 3>it was pitching a very strong narrative to that constituency

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<v Speaker 3>if you look at what is propping up Labour's vote

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<v Speaker 3>and their seats. We still predict the Oubani's government to

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<v Speaker 3>be re elected as it stands right now. Could change,

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<v Speaker 3>but as it stands right now, and that is possible

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<v Speaker 3>because of the constituency they leaned into at that budget.

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<v Speaker 3>So the Two Party preferred to vote for Labor amongst

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<v Speaker 3>Generation Z, that is Australians between eighteen and twenty eight,

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<v Speaker 3>is just over seventy percent. It's extraordinary that the levels

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<v Speaker 3>the Two Party preferred vote Amongst Astralians who speak a

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<v Speaker 3>language other than English at home seventy percent and amongst

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<v Speaker 3>millennials it's fifty six. And so these constituents are going

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<v Speaker 3>to drive strong electoral results for Labor and lock in

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<v Speaker 3>at least a minimum of seventy plus seats for them

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<v Speaker 3>on a.

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<v Speaker 1>Bad day coming up? Was this the final budget reply

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<v Speaker 1>from the coalition? Because this should be perfect fighter for

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<v Speaker 1>the coalitions, saying Labor broke faith with voters. They're attacking

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<v Speaker 1>aspiration through the politics of envy, are going after what

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<v Speaker 1>they say is the fair gos. The coalition's opportunity to

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<v Speaker 1>leverage this budget and become a real force in politics again.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that something that's a possibility.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think so, because the word fair go. Most

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<v Speaker 3>people will tell us they think there is an a

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<v Speaker 3>fair go in the country right now, even before the budget.

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<v Speaker 3>They think the system the tax system is designed to

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<v Speaker 3>reward people with wealth and not those with incomes. And

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<v Speaker 3>that's the overwhelming position of everyone that is voting Labor,

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<v Speaker 3>Green and One Nation and Independent, everyone but the Liberal Party.

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<v Speaker 3>And the only electrics that the Coalition is now left

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<v Speaker 3>holding are electorates, which are similar to Till electorates. But

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<v Speaker 3>these electrics that they've got, which is only just over

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<v Speaker 3>a dozen, are basically electrics with high numbers of people

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<v Speaker 3>with investments and assets. So the Coalition might be referring

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<v Speaker 3>to their own base, but that's a shrinking base at.

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<v Speaker 1>That So how would you assess Sagus Taylor's messaging this

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<v Speaker 1>week more broadly?

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<v Speaker 3>Pretty poor going to what we've just been talking about,

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<v Speaker 3>and that is a growing number of Australians not feeling

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<v Speaker 3>that they are being given the fair go. And then

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<v Speaker 3>the other one, which is of course his migration policy,

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<v Speaker 3>which was, in my opinion, policy designed to completely lock

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<v Speaker 3>themselves out of big urban Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>This isn't fair, So we're making some changes. We're going

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<v Speaker 2>to put Australians first. We'll restrict those seventeen welfare programs

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<v Speaker 2>any India to Australian citizens only. Labor puts you second,

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<v Speaker 2>the Coalition will put Australian first.

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<v Speaker 3>So No only doesn't touch Australians who are permanent residents.

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<v Speaker 3>What do he fast from understand is many of these

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<v Speaker 3>Australians who are permanent residents also have family who are

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<v Speaker 3>citizens in their own household. There's the mixed households. They

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<v Speaker 3>you might find a situation where the grandparents are permanent

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<v Speaker 3>residents but the adult children are citizens. That this is

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<v Speaker 3>not unusual and something that was absolutely prevalent when I

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<v Speaker 3>was growing up in the Greek and Itanian communities in Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>And that migration art takes a while. So you're planning

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<v Speaker 3>to bring over your brother and sister and that period

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<v Speaker 3>of uniting your family a new home takes about ten

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<v Speaker 3>to fifteen years. You rely on that permit residency framework

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<v Speaker 3>to facilitate that. So if you fall in half times,

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<v Speaker 3>the governments there to help you if you're a permanent resident.

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<v Speaker 1>So anyone who understands kind of like the fabric of

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<v Speaker 1>Australia and multiculturalists in particular, understands that dynamic and understands

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<v Speaker 1>that story. What explains his politics on this? Has he forgotten? That?

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<v Speaker 1>Is he not aware that that's what happens in Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>That aspiration of people coming here and making a better

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<v Speaker 1>life here is impossible without government support.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think we are now seeing an opposition desperate

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<v Speaker 3>to survive and they think that immigration is the only

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<v Speaker 3>thing that's going to help them. They fail to understand

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<v Speaker 3>the reason they're in this terrible situation is because they've

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<v Speaker 3>taken their eye off representing working class conservative Australians who

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<v Speaker 3>have voted for them for many years, not the top

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<v Speaker 3>end of town, and they always resort to immigration because

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<v Speaker 3>it's easy. They think that if they try to outperform

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<v Speaker 3>Paul and hands On that they might bring back some

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<v Speaker 3>of those votes. Well, when we look ask Australians who

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<v Speaker 3>have moved to One Nation from the Coalition as to

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<v Speaker 3>why they've done that, the majority have moved over because

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<v Speaker 3>they think the two party systems broken, that the economy

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<v Speaker 3>is not working for them. They want to burn the

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<v Speaker 3>place down. Only about thirteen thirty to seventeen percent have

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<v Speaker 3>done so because of immigration.

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<v Speaker 1>And do you think that chasing the one nation votes

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<v Speaker 1>by adopting their rhetoric and policies might just end up

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<v Speaker 1>validating One Nation as a party even.

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<v Speaker 3>More yeah, absolutely, that's exactly what's going to happen. So

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<v Speaker 3>the Labor camp had this problem versus the Greens. They

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<v Speaker 3>thought that if they tried to outgreen the Greens, they

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<v Speaker 3>will arrest their problem on the left during the last

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<v Speaker 3>twenty years. And they gave up that idea and started

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<v Speaker 3>just focusing on their strengths and that seems to have

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<v Speaker 3>worked for them as an electro strategy, but it took

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<v Speaker 3>a while for them to realize that. But they didn't

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<v Speaker 3>have a massive existential threat on their left flank. It

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<v Speaker 3>was a minimal threat and it was very geographically contained.

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<v Speaker 3>The flip side for the collision is that that is

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<v Speaker 3>not a luxury they have. And so by embarking on

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<v Speaker 3>this strategy of trying to outperform poll enhance on immigration,

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<v Speaker 3>the other thing they've done is, of course you have

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<v Speaker 3>in excess of two million Australians who are permanent residents.

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<v Speaker 3>You're going to now encourage hundreds of thousands of them

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<v Speaker 3>to become citizen enrolled to vote.

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<v Speaker 1>Out of fear. And you've said, because that this might

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<v Speaker 1>be the last or second last budget replied delivered by

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<v Speaker 1>a Liberal MP, that's a pretty extraordinary thought. Do you

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<v Speaker 1>think one nation will overtake the Liberals as the main

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<v Speaker 1>opposition voice.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, yes, So unless something changes, what we're predicting is

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<v Speaker 3>the one nation will win the bulk of the electrics

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<v Speaker 3>outside the large cities. The Coalition will be cut down

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<v Speaker 3>to only a handful of seats, probably as high as

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<v Speaker 3>I think the high teens, as low as single digits.

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<v Speaker 3>I do put a cabt. It can change because we

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<v Speaker 3>are for as I touched on, living for a quite

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<v Speaker 3>transformative period. But that's the world we're looking.

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<v Speaker 1>At from a seat perspective. How many seats are we

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<v Speaker 1>looking at? That one nation could actually end up at

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<v Speaker 1>the next election.

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<v Speaker 3>With anything from somewhere in the mid forties to about

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<v Speaker 3>sixty seats is what we're looking at the moment, and

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<v Speaker 3>predominantly in the regions and some in the outer suburbs

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<v Speaker 3>of a large cities, largely coming off the coalition, but

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<v Speaker 3>also a bit off labor.

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<v Speaker 1>And what about Barnaby the Great White Hope, how's he looking?

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<v Speaker 3>He doesn't need to stand for this, and he can

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<v Speaker 3>win New England quite comfortably. I would expect that the

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<v Speaker 3>one antion primary vote in New England would be close

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<v Speaker 3>to almost allowing him to win on primary votes alone.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow. Thanks for coming on the show and taking us

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<v Speaker 1>through the reaction to the budget, which was aimed at

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<v Speaker 1>young people like us.

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<v Speaker 4>That's right problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Seven Am is a daily show from Solstice Media. It's

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<v Speaker 1>made by Adigus Bastow, Ariel Richards, Chris Dangate, Crystal Keller,

0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:54.199
<v Speaker 1>Ruby Jones, Travis Evans, Zoltanfecho and me Daniel James Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of

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<v Speaker 1>Envelope Bordio. Thanks so much for listening to seven Am

0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:01.719
<v Speaker 1>this wake. Have a great wake.

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<v Speaker 4>End