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Speaker 1: Today on fear and greed. Donald Trump delays implementing a

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Speaker 1: twenty five percent tariff on Mexico, triggering turmoil and financial markets.

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Speaker 1: Federal Parliament recommences us today with election jocking already beginning,

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Speaker 1: and why a stroll after dinner. It's good fear health plus.

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Speaker 1: The Aussie dollar and share market tumbles on the back

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Speaker 1: of the trade war, while the local retail and building

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Speaker 1: sectors show some signs of life. Welcome to Fear and greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the fourth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer, Good morning,

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Speaker 1: Michael Shawn. The main story this morning, President Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: overnight paused tariffs on Mexico for a month after the

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Speaker 1: US's southern neighbor agreed to send ten thousand National Guard

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Speaker 1: troops to further block the border between the two countries.

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Speaker 2: What a crazy twenty four hours or so, Donald Trump said.

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Speaker 2: After a very friendly conversation with his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Shinebom,

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Speaker 2: he made the decision to delay tariffs for at least

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Speaker 2: a month. Mister Trump on his truth social platform said

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Speaker 2: the two leaders had agreed to immediately pause the anticipated

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Speaker 2: tariffs for a month period during which we will have negotiations.

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Speaker 2: That certainly sounds like there's room to move here. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump also spoke to the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau,

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Speaker 2: though as we go to air, no deal has been

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Speaker 2: done yet with Canada. Now having said that, Michael Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump and Justin Trudeau as scheduled to meet in the

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Speaker 2: next couple of hours, So who knows. The news comes.

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Speaker 2: As financial markets, I'm not sure how to describe it.

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Speaker 2: Thrash around, thrash.

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Speaker 1: Around, thrashes, a very very graphic kind of event. It is,

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Speaker 1: it is correct, though.

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Speaker 2: Ah, they're trying to understand and forecasts exactly where this

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Speaker 2: all finishes. Obviously, Donald Trump got something that he wanted

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Speaker 2: from Mexico in terms of ten thousand National Guard troops

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Speaker 2: turning up at the border between the two countries. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm a bit speechless. Battle there. I mean, Wall Street fell,

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Speaker 2: in fact, initially it fell sharply, then it rebounded later

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Speaker 2: in the session, and as we go to where it's

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Speaker 2: down slightly. Some specific stocks are still losing ground big time.

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Speaker 2: In Nvidia, the chip maker that has lost a lot

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Speaker 2: of money over the last week, eight hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: billion US dollars. That's about one point four trillion Aussie dollars.

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Speaker 2: Get your head around that one. Currencies have been moving

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Speaker 2: sharply all over the place, I mean none more than

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Speaker 2: the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. They were down and

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Speaker 2: then they are up. One sector that has done very

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Speaker 2: well out of this is gold. The price of gold

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Speaker 2: hit a new high overnight of twenty eight to eighteen

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Speaker 2: US dollars. Announce Now, in times of uncertainty, investors go

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Speaker 2: somewhere safe. Nothing is safer than gold. Where do we

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Speaker 2: stand this morning? Confused? I think it's probably the best

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Speaker 2: best way to put it, because we just the inconsistencies

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Speaker 2: in what's going on is very, very difficult for financial

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Speaker 2: markets and for traders.

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Speaker 1: It does demonstrate just how quickly things can change, though,

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Speaker 1: because I don't think anyone was necessarily expecting a one

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Speaker 1: month reprieve.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump uses thing tariffs as negotiating tactics to get

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Speaker 2: what he wants in solid social policy. We saw that

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Speaker 2: the first time round. It's just that he moved so

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Speaker 2: quickly this time round. On the twenty five percent tariffs,

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Speaker 2: So we didn't think that what was always a negotiating tactic.

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Speaker 2: We just didn't think he'd backflip so quickly, and they've

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Speaker 2: left room for more negotiations.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sewan you that you mentioned markets thrashing around. Local

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Speaker 1: markets certainly got caught up in the tariff storm yesterday.

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Speaker 2: They sure did. The S and PA Sex two hundred

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Speaker 2: fell by nearly two percent to finish the eight thousand,

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Speaker 2: three hundred and seventy nine points. All eleven of the

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Speaker 2: market's sub indices fell. There was no escaping a veritable

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Speaker 2: sea of red. Michael, Sea of red.

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Speaker 1: I love the fact that this is a podcast, obviously,

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Speaker 1: so you go to great lengths to create these very

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Speaker 1: visual motives. Yes, it's really quite something. It's theatre is

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Speaker 1: the mind it is.

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Speaker 2: I mean all these sub indices think consumer discretionary gone.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gone. Just lower healthcare, lower financials down, materials down,

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Speaker 2: real estate industrials all down around two percent. Only about

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Speaker 2: ten percent of the top two hundred stocks on the

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Speaker 2: AX ended the day in the black. Now, Australia was

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Speaker 2: the first major economy to trade after the tariff announcement

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Speaker 2: over the weekend. Of course, the fear is that a

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Speaker 2: global trade war hits economic growth, causes inflation that hurts earnings.

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Speaker 2: As we were the first to trade. That's why our

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Speaker 2: market fell so hard. Worst among the large caps National

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Speaker 2: Australia Bank, fortescul Metals Group, Aristocrat, Leisure, Rio, Tinto, Weis,

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Speaker 2: Tech Global, IRIAQB, Promticus, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. However, Michael,

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Speaker 2: it's been a rough morning so far. A shout out

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Speaker 2: to Telstra.

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Speaker 1: It was, which is not something you say very often,

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Speaker 1: is it?

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Speaker 2: Normally? I call that Tesla and we've got the name wrong.

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Speaker 2: But today a shout out to Telstra, the only top

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Speaker 2: forty stock that didn't go backwards yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Did it go up or it was? It just fairly?

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Speaker 2: It was up slightly, so slightly, but on a day

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Speaker 2: like yesterday, that's a day like yesterday relative to the

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Speaker 2: market did very well. A couple of really big moves,

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Speaker 2: healthcare group Fisher and Papal was down seven and a

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Speaker 2: half percent. It came out yesterday morning and said tariffs

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Speaker 2: would increase it's costs now it's got factories in Mexico,

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Speaker 2: and retailer Setai its share price call eighteen percent. After

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Speaker 2: it came out and said that it sources its goods

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Speaker 2: in Mexico, Canada and China. It's not too worried, but

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Speaker 2: the fact they put their announcement out, well, that mean

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Speaker 2: investors were worried. It was down eighteen percent, as I said, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that drew a lot of attention to that, didn't

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Speaker 1: they They did sewn. The Aussie dollar has been absolutely hammered,

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Speaker 1: not alone in that, but it's been hammond down to

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Speaker 1: almost sixty one US since yesterday, a new four year low.

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Speaker 1: It's not so much about the Aussie dollar, it's all

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Speaker 1: about the US dollar. Investors are running for the greenback.

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Speaker 1: It's considered a safe haven currency.

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Speaker 2: Even when all this tariff paraphernalita is coming out of

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Speaker 2: the US, the US dollar is still considered a safe

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Speaker 2: haven currency big fools and other currencies in the Canadian

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Speaker 2: dollars near a twenty two year low. The Mexican peso's

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Speaker 2: fallen sharp, and the Chinese hie has fallen sharply as well.

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Speaker 2: So too risky crypto assets so bitcoins back down to

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Speaker 2: ninety three thousand US solarcy unit ethereum, which is his

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Speaker 2: second largest digital asset. One point. Yesterday Felt fell twenty

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Speaker 2: six percent in one session. That is a massive sell off.

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Speaker 1: That is huge. We might have to follow that one

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Speaker 1: up this week, Sean and have a chat to somebody

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Speaker 1: about it. Speaking of chats, you have a great interview

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Speaker 1: coming up after the show. You're speaking today with AMP

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Speaker 1: chief economist, doctor Shane Oliver.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so Shane is sensible, I would say, would you

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Speaker 2: agree with that.

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Speaker 1: Michael, I think that's a fair assessment, Sean.

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Speaker 2: We talked to him about Donald Trump's tariffs. I would

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Speaker 2: say He's still sensible, but very colorful. I'm just putting

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Speaker 2: it out there. He's not a fan. He's not a fan.

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Speaker 2: And you know, Shane's been in the business for thirty

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Speaker 2: or forty years. He does a great job comparing what's

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Speaker 2: happening now to what has happened previously. But the bottom

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Speaker 2: line is he thinks it's crazy. Would you think that's

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Speaker 2: fair assessment, Michael.

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Speaker 1: I think that is. I think that is fair. I

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Speaker 1: think he is. He seems very very concerned about the flow.

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Speaker 2: On effects, genuine of this concerned.

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Speaker 1: It is a great conversation. It is coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show. We've got plenty more still to come, though,

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Speaker 1: Seawan were talking federal politics. Canberra's back get excited. He

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Speaker 1: did not look anywhere near near excited enough about that.

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Speaker 1: Plenty more still as well. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: The government is hopeful that Australia's trade surplus with the

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Speaker 1: US will prevent the Trump administration from imposing tariffs on

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Speaker 1: local goods.

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Speaker 2: You never know, they might might not.

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Speaker 1: This is this is this is the uncertainty, isn't it

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Speaker 1: is the great uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: What it means is that we yeah, I mean well

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Speaker 2: basically I'm not sure what it means. But Foreign Minutes

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Speaker 2: to Penny One yesterday said the surplus Putsustralia in a

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Speaker 2: strong position to navigate changing global markets. She said Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump wants to do things differently in Australia has to

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Speaker 2: navigate the new world confidently and with our eyes open.

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Speaker 2: So Australia and the US have a free trade agreement.

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Speaker 2: Ninety seven percent of products that are traded between the

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Speaker 2: two countries don't have tariffs on them. We sell to

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Speaker 2: the US stuff like financial services, gold, sheep and goats, meat, vaccines.

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Speaker 2: We buy from the US financial services, travel computer and

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Speaker 2: it services, cars, trucks. About twelve thousand Ousie companies sell

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Speaker 2: into the US, according to the Department of Foreignfairs and Trade.

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Speaker 2: Some of the big ones are Woodside, Westfield, Branbles of

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Speaker 2: Lassian Busy, Rio Tinto. At the moment, we have no

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Speaker 2: tariffs on our products, but if we do, presumably those

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Speaker 2: twelve thousand Aussie companies will be affected. But Penny Wong's

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Speaker 2: argument is because we have trade surplus with the US,

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Speaker 2: then we won't be hit by tariffs. Don't hold your breath.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you just don't know. And the thing is that

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Speaker 1: that's the twelve thousand Nazzy companies. That includes a lot

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Speaker 1: of smaller businesses totally.

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Speaker 2: Most of them are small businesses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and all of a sudden, the uncertainty for them,

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Speaker 1: it really does just become a pretty big worry. I

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Speaker 1: suppose that you'd have to carry for some time. Sean,

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Speaker 1: can we talk about Canber please?

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Speaker 2: Yes, please? I think it's time.

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Speaker 1: Federal Parliament sits today for the first time this year.

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Speaker 1: I'm genuinely excited because I love question time. I love it.

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Speaker 1: I love a bit of arjiebarjie in Parliament House. But

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Speaker 1: already it is all about the upcoming election, which is

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Speaker 1: due by the middle of May. Yet we are already

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Speaker 1: talking about it NonStop.

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Speaker 2: I reckon we can expect a feisty few weeks in Parliament,

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Speaker 2: at least until the election is called. The Government has

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Speaker 2: fast tracked the introduction legislation for its child care policy

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Speaker 2: that will abolish requirements around parents needing to work to

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Speaker 2: gain a childcare subsidy. The Government think they're on a

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Speaker 2: winner on that one compared to the opposition's policy. There

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Speaker 2: was an admission by Peter Dutton that the Coalition will

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Speaker 2: examine detailed spending cuts should it win office after the

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Speaker 2: election rather than before. Labour jumped all over that, saying well,

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Speaker 2: you won't know what you're getting if they're not going

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Speaker 2: to give details spending cuts ahead of the election. There's

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Speaker 2: also stories in the media at the moment about the

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Speaker 2: cost of meeting with Peter Dunn. It's gone from five

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Speaker 2: to ten thousand. That of course reflects the fact that

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Speaker 2: he's got much more of a chance than people ever thought.

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Speaker 2: Certainly six months ago we didn't think he'd have the

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Speaker 2: chance that he's got today. So all that begins today

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Speaker 2: today is fairly ceremonial, but the real argy Barjie kicks

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Speaker 2: off tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Retail sales across the country remains solid Sean, helped by

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Speaker 1: the strong labor market and the pickup in consumer sentiment.

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Speaker 2: So Buiau statistics figures released yesterday show that overfel very

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Speaker 2: very slightly in December, but that follows strong growth in

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Speaker 2: October and November. No November had the Black Friday sales.

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Speaker 2: What helped in December was Cyber Monday sales that fell

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Speaker 2: into December. So stuff like furniture, home where, electronics, electric items,

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Speaker 2: they all did really well. The result was just better

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Speaker 2: than expected people expect. People thought that retail sales would

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Speaker 2: come off and they didn't. The longer term trend is

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Speaker 2: a steady pick up in retail spending that's good for

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Speaker 2: the economy. The reason it's happening a bunch of things.

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Speaker 2: Labor markets strong as you mentioned, consumer sentiment is picking

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Speaker 2: up as you mentioned, or was they getting real wages

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Speaker 2: growth because we've got a falling inflation and people have

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Speaker 2: gotten wage rises. What they're inning their paypack can actually

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Speaker 2: afford more than what they were before, or so fiscal

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Speaker 2: support so the energy rebates, I mean people aren't spending

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Speaker 2: money on energy, so it's just really helping the retail

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Speaker 2: sector tick over. It's not strong enough to stop the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank from doing something different on rates though. Now

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Speaker 2: whether it does shift on rates in a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks time, we don't know. But I don't think the

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Speaker 2: retail sales figures are going to make too much of

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Speaker 2: difference one way or another.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to be the deciding factor for the

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Speaker 1: result bank building approval figures. We're also out yesterday. We

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Speaker 1: know that the government wants to build a huge number

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Speaker 1: of homes two hundred and forty thousand a year for

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Speaker 1: the next five years. Are we close?

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Speaker 2: No more like one hundred and thirty eight thousand. The

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Speaker 2: good news is that it's better than last year. I mean,

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Speaker 2: building approvals have trended higher. Slurer infation has certainly helped

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Speaker 2: the sector, but wow, we're a long way off the

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Speaker 2: government's target. Demand is still outstripping supply. Basically, the number

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Speaker 2: of apartments being built compared to freestending homes is relatively low.

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Speaker 2: Thinking about when you build an apartment block that actually

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Speaker 2: houses lots of people, and that ain't happening at the moment,

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Speaker 2: So completion times are still behind pre pandemic pace. That

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Speaker 2: lack of supply remains a real problem for the government,

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Speaker 2: including the ru up to the election. So it's so

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Speaker 2: a good argument why house prices won't for much, if

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Speaker 2: at all, during the rest of this year.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned this one earlier. Sean Coles is set to

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Speaker 1: cut the number of products it sells by ten percent,

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Speaker 1: hoping then for higher sales of the products that are

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Speaker 1: left on the shelf, which stands to reason.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I suppose. So Col's been working with Bain, which

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Speaker 2: is a management consultant group, for quite a few months.

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Speaker 2: According to a story in The fin Review, the company's

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Speaker 2: told large investors that even if they cut product numbers

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Speaker 2: by at least ten percent, they'll still have a wider

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Speaker 2: range of goods than pre pandemic. The idea is to

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Speaker 2: use the space and money for more popular products. Therefore

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Speaker 2: you end up selling more products. It's a bit risky

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Speaker 2: at the moment. Whatever Coals and Woolies does is going

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Speaker 2: to be very very closely white, not just by consumers,

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Speaker 2: but by the government and by the competition regulator, the

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Speaker 2: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. It's already investigating how much

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Speaker 2: power the supermarkets have in setting prices, how they're dealing

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Speaker 2: with supplies. Any changes to product range will probably fall

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Speaker 2: into that, and so it is a bit risky for

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Speaker 2: coles to do it. But their argument is, you know,

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Speaker 2: why have a lot of the stuff that doesn't sell

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Speaker 2: on your shelf and put more of the stuff that does,

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Speaker 2: and which is hard to argue against that.

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Speaker 1: And now this is an interesting one. Shawn Senior ABC figures,

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Speaker 1: including then chair Ada Buttro's, discussed removing a journalist from

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Speaker 1: her casual radio slot after flagging that they were sick

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Speaker 1: of getting complaints about her anti Israeli views.

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Speaker 2: The ABC hired Antoinette Latoufe de fill a five day

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Speaker 2: time slot on the Morning's Show on ABC Radio Sydney

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Speaker 2: in December twenty twenty three. She lasted three days before

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Speaker 2: being let go after a large number of plants were

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Speaker 2: sent to the ABC regarding past comments she had made

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Speaker 2: about the conflict in Gaza. Latouf has sued the ABC

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Speaker 2: in the federal court over her dismissal. Her barrister, Oshi

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Speaker 2: Figure told a hearing yesterday that Buttrose, then ABC Managing

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Speaker 2: Director David Anderson, and Chief Content Officer Chris Oliver Taylor

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Speaker 2: discussed how to get rid of her her being a

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Speaker 2: turf after a concerted campaign from a pro Israel lobbing group,

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Speaker 2: that's the allegation. Mister Anderson said that missus Latouf should

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Speaker 2: take a managed exit or at least maka managed exit

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Speaker 2: at the end of her five day shift, agreeing with

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Speaker 2: mister Oliver Taylor's opinion there'd be phenomenal blowback if she

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Speaker 2: was fired now. Miss Latouf was dismissed that same day

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Speaker 2: after reposting with that comment and Instagram post from Human

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Speaker 2: Rights Watch about starvation and gaza being used by the

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Speaker 2: Israeli government as a tool of war.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Turning to international news now, and the US SEAN

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Speaker 1: has told that the Central American nation must reduce Chinese

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Speaker 1: influence over the Panama Canal or face potential retaliation from

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in his first

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Speaker 2: foreign trip as America's top diplomat, spoke to Panamanian President

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Speaker 2: Jose Rol Milino. After the meeting, mister Molino said mister

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Speaker 2: Rubio had not threatened to retake the Panama Canal. He

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Speaker 2: hadn't threatened the use of force either. Of course, in

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Speaker 2: previous weeks, Donald Trump has said that the US should

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Speaker 2: take back the Panama Canal. Mister Rubio told mister Molino

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Speaker 2: that the American president had made a preliminary determination that

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Speaker 2: China's presence in the canal area violates a treaty that

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Speaker 2: led to the US turning the waterway over to Panama

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Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety nine.

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Speaker 1: Sean one last one. The growing I think this is

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Speaker 1: a good one for.

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Speaker 2: You, don't. I'm sorry you are agis.

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Speaker 1: No no, no, no no. It feels like kind of good, relaxing,

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Speaker 1: gentle exercise, and it just feels like that's right up

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Speaker 1: your alley. There is growing evidence that an evening stroll

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Speaker 1: after dinner can be of great health benefit to people.

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Speaker 1: So there you go. There's nothing insulting in that.

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Speaker 2: So the most recent research shows being active after six

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Speaker 2: pm can lower the chance of getting bowel cancer. Other

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Speaker 2: studies so that walking after eating can improve digestion, regulate

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Speaker 2: blood sugar, lower blood pressure, and a weight loss. According

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Speaker 2: to the Daily Telegraph of London, studies have found that

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Speaker 2: physical activity is relaxing fair enough, so it may reduce

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Speaker 2: stress related inflammation. It's also good for cardiovascular metabolism, especially

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Speaker 2: by reducing blood pressure, which in turn reduces stress and

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Speaker 2: inflammation throughout your organs. Exercise also helps you sleep better,

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Speaker 2: which is another factor that reduces chronic stress and inflammation.

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Speaker 2: So broadly, it should be walking after dinner. Now there's

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Speaker 2: University Sydneys to study. They analyzed the health and activity

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Speaker 2: patterns of about eighty thousand people. They found that those

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Speaker 2: who walked thirty eight hundred steps per day it's about

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Speaker 2: three point two kilometers cants you out, had a twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent lower risk of developing dementia compared to those

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Speaker 2: who didn't walk much at all. The moral of the story,

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Speaker 2: once you've had dinner, go for a stroll around the block, and.

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Speaker 1: There's no rules around this like there are for you know,

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Speaker 1: for swimming, where you're not supposed to go for a

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Speaker 1: swim like forty five minutes after you're eating.

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Speaker 2: No, I forgot those rules.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's not actually legitimate, is it. I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty sure that's just an old wives tale. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Isn't the idea that you get a stitch?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd imagine that would be the case, because if

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Speaker 2: you go for a run after eating, I will I

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Speaker 2: certainly get a stitch, and I think the theory is

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Speaker 2: when you're in the water, it's harder to get out.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well you know what you research the

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Speaker 1: business news. I'm going to go and research whether the

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Speaker 1: not even health just specifically kind of can you swim

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Speaker 1: after having a big meal, Sean. Up next is the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Daily Interview amps Doctor Shane Oliver is

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Speaker 1: your guest and coming up at midday today. Keep an

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Speaker 1: eye on the Fear and Greed playlist because a new

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Speaker 1: episode of Ask Fear and Greed where we answer listen

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Speaker 1: to questions. Today's a great question, particularly if you are

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Speaker 1: an investor or you're interested in markets. Don't miss that one.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the fourth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.