1 00:00:05,820 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Aylmer. National Australia Bank, last week, delivered a 13% drop 3 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: in first half cash profit for $ 3. 55 billion. Quite 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,029 Speaker 1: a drop, but it did come after a stellar result 5 00:00:18,029 --> 00:00:20,460 Speaker 1: the previous year. NAB went on to announce a one 6 00:00:20,460 --> 00:00:23,310 Speaker 1: and a half billion dollars share buyback, kept its dividend 7 00:00:23,370 --> 00:00:26,579 Speaker 1: steady. This week we have half year earnings from Westpac 8 00:00:26,579 --> 00:00:28,769 Speaker 1: and ANZ. We'll have a third quarter trading update from 9 00:00:28,770 --> 00:00:32,458 Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank as well. Plenty for investors to sink their 10 00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:34,619 Speaker 1: teeth in when it comes to the big four banks. 11 00:00:34,949 --> 00:00:37,350 Speaker 1: Remember, of course, this is general information only and you 12 00:00:37,350 --> 00:00:40,830 Speaker 1: should always seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Carlos 13 00:00:40,830 --> 00:00:44,340 Speaker 1: Cacho is the chief economist and bank analyst at Jarden 14 00:00:44,340 --> 00:00:47,729 Speaker 1: Australia. Now Carlos, given we've got Reserve Bank this week 15 00:00:47,729 --> 00:00:49,409 Speaker 1: as well, you're going to have a busy week. 16 00:00:50,190 --> 00:00:52,049 Speaker 2: I definitely will Sean, and then we've got the budget 17 00:00:52,049 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: the week after. So, it's a busy couple of weeks. 18 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:55,710 Speaker 2: So, with my two hats on. 19 00:00:56,130 --> 00:00:58,830 Speaker 1: Carlos needs more money. Just putting it out there, just 20 00:00:58,830 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: putting it out there. Tell me, what did you make 21 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: of National Australia Bank's results last week? 22 00:01:03,150 --> 00:01:06,719 Speaker 2: Look, the headline result was broadly in line with expectations. 23 00:01:06,719 --> 00:01:08,759 Speaker 2: As you said, it was down quite a bit from 24 00:01:08,759 --> 00:01:11,459 Speaker 2: last year, but we knew that was happening. Margins have 25 00:01:11,459 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: been under pressure. We were coming off record earnings, so 26 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,230 Speaker 2: it was never going to hold up at that level. 27 00:01:16,500 --> 00:01:19,230 Speaker 2: The key thing for us though was the details were 28 00:01:19,230 --> 00:01:21,328 Speaker 2: a bit better than expected and there were three key 29 00:01:21,330 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: things that really jumped out at us. First of all, 30 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 2: we did get confirmation that margin pressure, while it does 31 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,140 Speaker 2: continue, is easing. We're seeing competition in both mortgages and 32 00:01:31,140 --> 00:01:34,380 Speaker 2: deposits moderate, and the guidance from NAB was that was 33 00:01:34,380 --> 00:01:37,230 Speaker 2: going to continue ahead. So, that was a positive versus market 34 00:01:37,230 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 2: expectations. Secondly, we confirmed, again, that the credit outlook remains 35 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,259 Speaker 2: pretty benign, bad debts coming in less than expected, defaults, 36 00:01:46,260 --> 00:01:49,590 Speaker 2: arrears, et cetera. All the regular indicators us bank analysts. 37 00:01:49,860 --> 00:01:53,100 Speaker 2: Look out, I'm holding up better than people feared they 38 00:01:53,100 --> 00:01:55,470 Speaker 2: would and NAB noting that things had played out much 39 00:01:55,470 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: better. And importantly what that means is NAB is holding 40 00:01:58,860 --> 00:02:01,770 Speaker 2: quite an elevated level of provisions. So, the money they're 41 00:02:01,770 --> 00:02:03,990 Speaker 2: putting away for the rainy day, when things go pear- 42 00:02:03,990 --> 00:02:07,410 Speaker 2: shaped in the economy, around the highest they've been since 43 00:02:07,410 --> 00:02:10,620 Speaker 2: Covid and if you exclude that the highest they've been 44 00:02:10,620 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 2: since the GFC, that's given the current environment, looking like 45 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,429 Speaker 2: they're probably holding a bit too much there. And so, 46 00:02:17,429 --> 00:02:20,999 Speaker 2: there's the potential ahead, potentially in the second half or 47 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,189 Speaker 2: maybe in FY 25, and they could return some of 48 00:02:23,190 --> 00:02:27,030 Speaker 2: those provisions and that can support earnings in FY 25. And 49 00:02:27,030 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 2: then thirdly, what we heard is that credit growth is 50 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:31,980 Speaker 2: holding up better than expected as well. So in particular, 51 00:02:32,250 --> 00:02:34,830 Speaker 2: NAB highlighted that business credit growth has been much more 52 00:02:34,830 --> 00:02:38,609 Speaker 2: resilient than they anticipated, and their pipeline of new business 53 00:02:38,610 --> 00:02:41,038 Speaker 2: lending is the strongest it's ever been in the history 54 00:02:41,038 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 2: of the bank. So, that comment on the earnings call 55 00:02:43,350 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 2: really gave the market a boost of confidence in the 56 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,870 Speaker 2: stock and it was a traded up strongly following that. 57 00:02:49,410 --> 00:02:52,530 Speaker 1: I think Andrew Irvine, the CEO, said, I think astonishing 58 00:02:52,530 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: was the word he used in terms of that. Is 59 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,228 Speaker 1: there a chance that because they're doing so well on 60 00:02:58,288 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: the business lending side and National Australia Bank being the 61 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:06,540 Speaker 1: biggest business lender, vis-à-vis the other three banks, that NAB's actually 62 00:03:06,540 --> 00:03:10,110 Speaker 1: outperforming on net interest margins because they're just not being 63 00:03:10,230 --> 00:03:12,569 Speaker 1: as crunched as much in the heart of their business 64 00:03:12,570 --> 00:03:14,849 Speaker 1: as let's say Commonwealth or Westpac might be because they're 65 00:03:14,849 --> 00:03:15,660 Speaker 1: mortgage banks? 66 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, absolutely. We do know that the margin for 67 00:03:19,740 --> 00:03:22,889 Speaker 2: NAB's business bank is around 3%. The margin for their 68 00:03:22,889 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 2: personal bank is lower, a bit below 2%. So, it 69 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,490 Speaker 2: is certainly a more accretive and higher margin business that 70 00:03:29,490 --> 00:03:33,299 Speaker 2: is a positive for them. And they have purposefully directed 71 00:03:33,299 --> 00:03:35,339 Speaker 2: their business to be growing a bit below system in 72 00:03:35,340 --> 00:03:38,670 Speaker 2: mortgages, a level that they're happy with and doing really 73 00:03:38,670 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 2: well in the business bank, particularly the SME space. So 74 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,470 Speaker 2: that's definitely a positive for them versus peers. 75 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,719 Speaker 1: Okay. You mentioned mortgages there. The CEO said he thought 76 00:03:48,719 --> 00:03:51,209 Speaker 1: that we're at the bottom of that cycle or the 77 00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:53,639 Speaker 1: worst was over. I can't quite remember the words he 78 00:03:53,639 --> 00:03:58,110 Speaker 1: used. The competition, the mortgage space, is tough but some 79 00:03:58,110 --> 00:04:00,660 Speaker 1: of the big banks and NAB being an example, they're 80 00:04:00,660 --> 00:04:03,870 Speaker 1: not being too aggressive in the competition part of it. 81 00:04:04,500 --> 00:04:06,660 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, if you compare where we are now to where we were 82 00:04:07,049 --> 00:04:10,889 Speaker 2: 12 months ago, competition has definitely eased, front book mortgage 83 00:04:10,889 --> 00:04:14,370 Speaker 2: rates relative to the cash rate have increased by 10 84 00:04:14,370 --> 00:04:17,370 Speaker 2: to 15 basis points. So, if you look at banks' 85 00:04:17,370 --> 00:04:19,620 Speaker 2: basic mortgage rates, they're up by more. They're up by about 45 to 86 00:04:19,860 --> 00:04:23,099 Speaker 2: 50 basis points. At the same time, we've also had 87 00:04:23,099 --> 00:04:27,089 Speaker 2: cashbacks have largely been pulled back. So, last year in 88 00:04:27,089 --> 00:04:29,430 Speaker 2: May, June and July, we saw most of the big 89 00:04:29,430 --> 00:04:32,250 Speaker 2: banks end their cashbacks. You do still have one from ANZ 90 00:04:32,250 --> 00:04:35,430 Speaker 2: and one from the St. George Group brands within Westpac, 91 00:04:35,610 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 2: but by and large cashbacks have fallen by the wayside. 92 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,459 Speaker 2: So overall, we are seeing competition moderate. The other big 93 00:04:41,460 --> 00:04:43,889 Speaker 2: change we're seeing is that we're seeing a lot less 94 00:04:43,889 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 2: back book discounting. Back again 12 months ago, if you 95 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,260 Speaker 2: asked your bank for a discount on your mortgage, they 96 00:04:49,260 --> 00:04:50,700 Speaker 2: were pretty willing to give it to you when you 97 00:04:50,700 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: were getting offered pretty big discounts anywhere up to 70 or 80 98 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,230 Speaker 2: basis points at some stages. That's now mostly played through. 99 00:04:58,230 --> 00:05:00,270 Speaker 2: And what we're now seeing is the rate for new 100 00:05:00,270 --> 00:05:03,540 Speaker 2: customers coming in. The front book rate is now only 101 00:05:03,540 --> 00:05:06,210 Speaker 2: just about 10 basis points above the back book rate, 102 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 2: which is the rate for all existing loans. If we 103 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 2: rewind about 18, 24 months, that was sitting more like 50 104 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,700 Speaker 2: basis points. So, that's come in a long way. And 105 00:05:14,700 --> 00:05:16,710 Speaker 2: what that means is there's just less of an incremental 106 00:05:16,710 --> 00:05:19,559 Speaker 2: drag from that repricing playing through. So, margins are still 107 00:05:19,559 --> 00:05:22,948 Speaker 2: low versus history, but they're no longer falling the way 108 00:05:22,949 --> 00:05:23,460 Speaker 2: they were. 109 00:05:23,910 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: So if I go to my bank and ask for 110 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,410 Speaker 1: a cut when I come from a fixed rate home 111 00:05:28,410 --> 00:05:30,659 Speaker 1: loan to a variable rate home loan, I've got less 112 00:05:30,660 --> 00:05:32,639 Speaker 1: chance now than I did 12 months ago. Is that 113 00:05:32,639 --> 00:05:33,299 Speaker 1: what you're sort of saying? 114 00:05:33,330 --> 00:05:35,130 Speaker 2: Yeah, you're not going to get a good rate as 115 00:05:35,130 --> 00:05:37,020 Speaker 2: you would've in February last year when the banks were 116 00:05:37,020 --> 00:05:40,500 Speaker 2: competing really aggressively. They're generally still doing pretty well by 117 00:05:40,500 --> 00:05:43,529 Speaker 2: existing customers. They want to hold onto those customers. They 118 00:05:43,529 --> 00:05:46,109 Speaker 2: don't want to have to pay up a commission to 119 00:05:46,110 --> 00:05:49,140 Speaker 2: win back a loan through the broker channel to offset 120 00:05:49,140 --> 00:05:51,420 Speaker 2: that. The other thing we are seeing, which should be 121 00:05:51,420 --> 00:05:53,580 Speaker 2: a positive over this year, is that we're seeing the 122 00:05:54,270 --> 00:05:57,089 Speaker 2: mortgage market shift from a refi- driven market to a 123 00:05:57,089 --> 00:06:00,299 Speaker 2: purchase driven market. If the housing market continues to pick 124 00:06:00,299 --> 00:06:02,460 Speaker 2: up and volumes lift. And that's really important because when 125 00:06:02,460 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 2: you're refinancing, you don't have time pressure, you're not so 126 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,700 Speaker 2: focused on the service offering, really, most borrowers are just 127 00:06:08,700 --> 00:06:10,170 Speaker 2: going to be focused on the rate and how much 128 00:06:10,170 --> 00:06:12,659 Speaker 2: money they're looking to save. When you're going to purchase 129 00:06:12,660 --> 00:06:15,659 Speaker 2: a new home, that turnaround time, that service offering that 130 00:06:15,660 --> 00:06:19,140 Speaker 2: the banks can offer. And in our view, the premium 131 00:06:19,140 --> 00:06:22,890 Speaker 2: service that NAB has, the high quality systems, are going 132 00:06:22,890 --> 00:06:24,900 Speaker 2: to mean that they should be able to command a 133 00:06:24,900 --> 00:06:28,770 Speaker 2: modest premium versus peers in the purchase market for that reliability. 134 00:06:29,309 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: Stay with me Carlos. We'll be back in a minute. 135 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: I am speaking to Carlos Cacho, bank analyst at Jarden 136 00:06:41,820 --> 00:06:45,089 Speaker 1: Australia. Okay. Just before we move on to the other 137 00:06:45,089 --> 00:06:48,239 Speaker 1: banks, what Andrew Irvine did say last week, and you 138 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,849 Speaker 1: can put your chief economist hat on this one, he 139 00:06:50,849 --> 00:06:52,589 Speaker 1: actually said there were pockets to the economy that are 140 00:06:52,589 --> 00:06:54,900 Speaker 1: doing pretty well and he said there was an overemphasis 141 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: on the bad stuff. What do you take from his 142 00:06:58,500 --> 00:06:59,669 Speaker 1: economic point of view? 143 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,389 Speaker 2: Oh, we hundred percent agree with that. My view has probably 144 00:07:03,389 --> 00:07:05,969 Speaker 2: been a bit more optimistic on the economy versus a 145 00:07:05,969 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 2: lot of my economist peers. The consumer is soft, yes, 146 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,540 Speaker 2: but it's really a bifurcated outlook. We know that mortgage 147 00:07:12,540 --> 00:07:14,340 Speaker 2: holders are doing it tough, but only one third of 148 00:07:14,340 --> 00:07:18,270 Speaker 2: households have a mortgage. Older Australians, those without mortgages who 149 00:07:18,270 --> 00:07:20,700 Speaker 2: own their homes, are actually doing pretty well. And we actually 150 00:07:20,700 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 2: saw that last week in the cost of living indices 151 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,099 Speaker 2: as well, where cost of living for employees is up 152 00:07:26,099 --> 00:07:29,219 Speaker 2: by over 6%, but cost of living for a retirees 153 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,850 Speaker 2: is up only 3%. So, it just highlights this real difference in 154 00:07:32,850 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 2: the experience of the economy at the moment for different 155 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,730 Speaker 2: households. And if you look outside the consumer sector, business 156 00:07:38,730 --> 00:07:42,030 Speaker 2: investment is actually looking really solid. Residential construction is weak. 157 00:07:42,059 --> 00:07:44,369 Speaker 2: We know that, it's going to slow this year, but non- 158 00:07:44,370 --> 00:07:47,879 Speaker 2: residential building is actually quite strong. We've got a huge 159 00:07:47,879 --> 00:07:50,190 Speaker 2: amount of infrastructure going in at the public sector level, 160 00:07:50,430 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 2: and the government is still driving really strong spending on 161 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 2: the public consumption side. So overall, once you step away 162 00:07:58,080 --> 00:07:59,819 Speaker 2: from the consumer and look at the other sections of 163 00:07:59,820 --> 00:08:02,670 Speaker 2: the economy, it's actually holding up relatively well. And that's 164 00:08:02,670 --> 00:08:04,619 Speaker 2: why we've been a bit more positive, particularly on credit 165 00:08:04,619 --> 00:08:08,550 Speaker 2: growth, where we are expecting non- mining business investment to rise at 166 00:08:08,550 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 2: about 10% through to end of FY 25. And that should see more 167 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:15,510 Speaker 2: robust business credit growth in both the market and the 168 00:08:15,510 --> 00:08:16,889 Speaker 2: banks themselves are expecting. 169 00:08:17,429 --> 00:08:19,380 Speaker 1: Okay. Let's move on to Westpac and ANZ. What do 170 00:08:19,380 --> 00:08:22,229 Speaker 1: you think will happen with those two? They've got their half- 171 00:08:22,260 --> 00:08:26,580 Speaker 1: yearly results this week and Commonwealth Bank's got its quarterly 172 00:08:26,700 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: results. What are you expecting? 173 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 2: Look, I think we're going to see some similar things 174 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,229 Speaker 2: come through in terms of continued signs of that margin 175 00:08:34,260 --> 00:08:38,490 Speaker 2: drag moderating, competition easing. Maybe a little bit less at 176 00:08:38,490 --> 00:08:43,500 Speaker 2: Westpac and ANZ than NAB. NAB's been playing quite safe on terms 177 00:08:43,500 --> 00:08:45,210 Speaker 2: of the margin volume trade- off when it comes to 178 00:08:45,210 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: mortgages. ANZ and Westpac had been competing a little bit 179 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: more aggressively. Lower rates, cashback still in there. So, they 180 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 2: might not see quite as much of an improvement. Deposits 181 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,900 Speaker 2: though, we are seeing across the board deposit competition has 182 00:08:57,900 --> 00:09:01,140 Speaker 2: definitely moderated since November or has stabilized, I should say, 183 00:09:01,140 --> 00:09:03,689 Speaker 2: sorry. And so that should still be a positive there. 184 00:09:04,619 --> 00:09:08,730 Speaker 2: ANZ, the Institutional Bank, should continue to do well. We 185 00:09:08,730 --> 00:09:11,579 Speaker 2: learned from NAB last week that the Institutional Bank performed 186 00:09:11,580 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 2: really strongly. They had an ROE of 16%, which is a great result. 187 00:09:16,199 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 2: If that's a signal for the broader sector, that should 188 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,090 Speaker 2: be a positive for ANZ. And for Westpac, we know 189 00:09:21,090 --> 00:09:23,220 Speaker 2: that their quarterly update was quite strong on margins, so 190 00:09:23,220 --> 00:09:24,630 Speaker 2: we would expect that to come through. And then of 191 00:09:24,630 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 2: course, what we're going to probably see again is bad 192 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,478 Speaker 2: debts coming in below expectations. The market doesn't think of 193 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 2: that as a high quality beat, but it is still 194 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:34,829 Speaker 2: a beat and it is still a positive. And I 195 00:09:34,830 --> 00:09:38,370 Speaker 2: think we'll probably, again, hear from them that capital returns 196 00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 2: or write back to those provisions are possible. The other 197 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,630 Speaker 2: thing that we're expecting is we probably get a large 198 00:09:42,630 --> 00:09:46,169 Speaker 2: buyback out of ANZ, now that the Suncorp deal is approved, 199 00:09:46,170 --> 00:09:47,879 Speaker 2: they've got a bit more certainty on the outlook, or 200 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,759 Speaker 2: at least approved by the ACCC. And we expect they're going 201 00:09:50,759 --> 00:09:53,458 Speaker 2: to announce their first buyback in two years. And with 202 00:09:53,458 --> 00:09:57,330 Speaker 2: Westpac, we're expecting they may announce a special dividend. Westpac 203 00:09:57,330 --> 00:10:00,150 Speaker 2: has a large balance of excess franking credits and now 204 00:10:00,150 --> 00:10:02,459 Speaker 2: that they can no longer do off- market buybacks, special 205 00:10:02,460 --> 00:10:05,070 Speaker 2: dividends are really the only way to return those to shareholders. 206 00:10:05,610 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: Okay. What about share prices in, we saw a bit 207 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,410 Speaker 1: of a jump after the National Australia Bank result last 208 00:10:10,410 --> 00:10:14,130 Speaker 1: week. They are trading at multi- year highs in the 209 00:10:14,130 --> 00:10:17,850 Speaker 1: case of Commonwealth Bank, not far off total highs. Can 210 00:10:17,850 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: they keep running? 211 00:10:19,290 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 2: Look, I think our expectation is that the banks hold 212 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,370 Speaker 2: up relatively well. It's hard to see material out performance 213 00:10:26,370 --> 00:10:28,649 Speaker 2: from here, but equally we don't see a catalyst that's 214 00:10:28,650 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 2: going to see them de- rate materially either. We've got 215 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,770 Speaker 2: a neutral view on the sector, which is relatively favorable 216 00:10:34,770 --> 00:10:36,809 Speaker 2: versus I think what a lot of the markets think 217 00:10:36,809 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: with the banks. And that's really underpinned by that favorable 218 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,110 Speaker 2: macro view, where we're seeing this easing in competition, bad 219 00:10:43,110 --> 00:10:45,660 Speaker 2: debts coming in less than expected, the potential for them 220 00:10:45,660 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 2: to provisions to be written back and credit growth holding 221 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,910 Speaker 2: up better than feared as well. So, I think the 222 00:10:50,910 --> 00:10:52,410 Speaker 2: way we're thinking about the banks is they're probably going 223 00:10:52,410 --> 00:10:54,870 Speaker 2: to perform broadly in line with the market, maybe a 224 00:10:54,870 --> 00:10:59,580 Speaker 2: little bit better, but the valuations certainly don't give you 225 00:11:00,030 --> 00:11:01,708 Speaker 2: a lot of upside from these levels. 226 00:11:02,219 --> 00:11:03,929 Speaker 1: Carlos, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed, good 227 00:11:03,929 --> 00:11:06,029 Speaker 1: luck. However, in the next week with budgets and reserve 228 00:11:06,029 --> 00:11:09,750 Speaker 1: banks and bank reporting. Do you get any sleep or not? 229 00:11:10,830 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 2: Well, it depends on what the 18- month old decides 230 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:13,290 Speaker 2: to give me. 231 00:11:14,130 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 1: Oh, wow. You've got a busy couple of weeks. That 232 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,590 Speaker 1: was Carlos Cacho, bank analyst and chief economist at Jarden 233 00:11:19,590 --> 00:11:22,469 Speaker 1: Australia. This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Remember, 234 00:11:22,469 --> 00:11:24,690 Speaker 1: this is general information only and you should always seek 235 00:11:24,690 --> 00:11:28,260 Speaker 1: professional advice before making investment decisions. Join us every morning 236 00:11:28,260 --> 00:11:30,330 Speaker 1: for the full episode of Fear and Greed, daily business 237 00:11:30,330 --> 00:11:33,030 Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. I'm Sean 238 00:11:33,030 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: Aylmer. Enjoy your day.