Speaker 1: Because Samara spends hundreds and hundreds of hours listening to
Speaker 1: what voters really think in focus groups and surveys. His
Speaker 1: company gathers the opinions of everyday Australians to paint a
Speaker 1: picture of the national mood. What's worrying us? What do
Speaker 1: we think of the prime minister's mansion or the opposition
Speaker 1: leader's share portfolio? Which politicians can we trust? But he says,
Speaker 1: his picture gets warped by politicians who live and die
Speaker 1: by the two party preferred poll numbers and the twenty
Speaker 1: four hour news cycle, and they fail to learn from
Speaker 1: anything much beyond that.
Speaker 2: I think the political class responds badly to numbers, you know,
Speaker 2: there's almost like they've got two speeds. One's arrogance, the
Speaker 2: other one's panic. And it depends what the numbers are doing,
Speaker 2: whether they actually are suffering from one or the other.
Speaker 2: But Poland's really powerful if you allow the numbers to
Speaker 2: do the talking for over a long period of time.
Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM,
Speaker 1: director at Redbridge Cos Samaris on the one group, he'll
Speaker 1: decide the outcome of the upcoming election and the things
Speaker 1: they want that no one is offering. It's Saturday, March
Speaker 1: twenty two. Couse, thanks for joining us. I want to
Speaker 1: start with some numbers. How many people do you actually
Speaker 1: need to gain a proper view on any particular issue.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Focus group's about nine to twelve people and it
Speaker 2: runs for an.
Speaker 1: Hour and a half.
Speaker 2: And usually it's not just one, so you've got to
Speaker 2: run a number of them, because one could be an outlier.
Speaker 2: If you're doing a statewide it's minimum twelve hundred, you
Speaker 2: can go up to two thousand.
Speaker 1: People would be surprised by how the relatively small numbers,
Speaker 1: and that could lead into the view that, well, do
Speaker 1: we trust piles on such small numbers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. So surveying on a thousand people it's
Speaker 2: mathematically robust because it enables you to capture enough people
Speaker 2: in that sample that is statistically representative of the broader
Speaker 2: popular So you'll get to about two thousand and three
Speaker 2: thousand sample, and your margin of error is like, you know,
Speaker 2: one and two percent. Beyond that, you're probably wasting money.
Speaker 2: But the art is in the in the brief, and
Speaker 2: a good recruitment agency will do the job really well
Speaker 2: and put the right people in the room for you
Speaker 2: to interview.
Speaker 1: So what lengths do you go to to make sure
Speaker 1: that the polling is representative? For instance, reaching young people,
Speaker 1: how do you get to them, especially young people that
Speaker 1: are just registering to vote for the first time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is where online panels work better because
Speaker 2: people will participate through that forum. It's a lot easy
Speaker 2: to reach people that can fill in the survey in
Speaker 2: their own time, much better than trying to call them,
Speaker 2: and you know, with a random number than that are recognized,
Speaker 2: particularly young people who won't pick up the phone if
Speaker 2: it's a number that's not recognizable. And I would say
Speaker 2: most of us now up the phone.
Speaker 1: The poles have been spectacularly wrong on a number of occasions.
Speaker 1: They didn't get it right for most of the recent
Speaker 1: US election, but the betting markets did. Why is that?
Speaker 2: Yes, it depends on which country you're looking at in
Speaker 2: terms of polling, but I would say polling in Australia
Speaker 2: has been generally pretty accurate. Even in twenty nineteen, when
Speaker 2: you're off by two percent, it ain't a disaster. But
Speaker 2: if the election results tight, which it has been since
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, you're going to have to allow a bit
Speaker 2: of wriggle room. So the language we always use. If
Speaker 2: it's within the margin of error, which is about three percent,
Speaker 2: If it depending on your sample size, then it's fine. Right,
Speaker 2: So fifty one to forty nine right now Labour's way.
Speaker 2: It could be forty nine, right, it could be forty eight.
Speaker 2: We don't know. But what I said about polling is
Speaker 2: it's a tool, right, It's a temperature gauge. I think
Speaker 2: where polling can be quite useful is viewed from a
Speaker 2: long term perspective. So, for example, if I was to
Speaker 2: come to a government with some research that tells them
Speaker 2: that mental health is a brewing problem in the outer
Speaker 2: suburbs and regions of this country, and it's affecting young
Speaker 2: people disproportionately, but also young mums, and that that will
Speaker 2: have a political consequence in the years to come, perhaps
Speaker 2: you should listen to it. But they don't because they
Speaker 2: don't see an immediate political sugar hit. It won't be
Speaker 2: my problem. I won't have to wear the consequences of that,
Speaker 2: or won't be around.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: That's where polling is really useful. Where it's not useful
Speaker 2: in terms of public discussion. And I would say the
Speaker 2: way that politics is reported and how the political class
Speaker 2: respond is that it's oh look, Labour's primary vote is
Speaker 2: increased by one percent, therefore something must have happened. No,
Speaker 2: it's probably data noise, and so polling is a diagnostic tool.
Speaker 2: It's not a fortune cookie.
Speaker 1: So okay, let's talk about short term is and what
Speaker 1: are the top issues affecting voters at this election.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the umbrella, it's cost of living. But
Speaker 2: really what's created that is a whole range of issues, right,
Speaker 2: housing being the absolute bond crater that is impacting so
Speaker 2: many people in so many ways in this country. Now, yes,
Speaker 2: it's young people, but it's not all young people. You know.
Speaker 2: We are seeing, for example, a small group of young
Speaker 2: people who are direct beneficiaries of this absurd housing market
Speaker 2: because their parents are really wealthy and attained assets and someone.
Speaker 2: So that into generational wealth transfer is occurring right now.
Speaker 2: But it's forcing normal working class people into a debt
Speaker 2: environment that is completely unsustainable. Although the interest rates can
Speaker 2: drop and things get easier for them, they're probably not
Speaker 2: going to be able to pay off these mortgages in
Speaker 2: their working life. You know, if you're particularly if you're
Speaker 2: working with your hands, you're working with your hands, your
Speaker 2: working life is not into your sixties, it's into your
Speaker 2: fifties and then the body starts breaking down.
Speaker 1: So if we're talking about housing being a major issue,
Speaker 1: how much voters care about how rich politics are? So
Speaker 1: there was a big storm around Albanese's forming the house
Speaker 1: or Peter Dutton's portfolio of twenty six properties, how much
Speaker 1: do people care about I wouldn't.
Speaker 2: Say they care, said they've made up their minds that
Speaker 2: they are not part of them. So voters view themselves
Speaker 2: distinctly different to the political class. Comments that are always
Speaker 2: repeated to us in groups are they've probably never checked
Speaker 2: the price of a loafe of bread. They would know
Speaker 2: where to go and buy X or Y. You know,
Speaker 2: they live a totally different life to you and I.
Speaker 2: I mean that's the sort of commentary we hear quite
Speaker 2: a lot. And so when stories around, you know, Albanezi
Speaker 2: buying a four million dollar mansion or Peter Dutton's share
Speaker 2: portfolios and so on, people just go, yeah, well, that's
Speaker 2: what that's what politicians do. They're not part of us.
Speaker 1: So as a result of that, partly the major parties
Speaker 1: are shedding primary votes. We know that more and more
Speaker 1: people are voting for minor parties and independence. How do
Speaker 1: you think this is going to affect the koind of
Speaker 1: the upcoming election.
Speaker 2: At the last election, five point two million voter for
Speaker 2: something other than majors. I think that trend's going to continue.
Speaker 2: It will manifest in different ways, right, So in Victoria
Speaker 2: it's you know, you will see a hemorrhaging of the
Speaker 2: labor primary and it will spray everywhere, but it won't
Speaker 2: necessarily go to the coalition. Well, fundamentally, I think people
Speaker 2: are missing here is when we're talking about millennials and
Speaker 2: Gen Zenna, and the oldest millennial is now forty four
Speaker 2: years of age. These two generations are very different to
Speaker 2: older Australians. So when we survey them, you know, we
Speaker 2: say do you have you know, can you name a
Speaker 2: political party that aligns with your values? Over half say no,
Speaker 2: not one, not a single political party. You go to
Speaker 2: boomers and it's almost eighty percent. So if you're in
Speaker 2: an urban and you've got a university degree, you're more
Speaker 2: likely to have a very progressive view about the world.
Speaker 2: But as you go out to the outer suburbs, it's
Speaker 2: verse young families, you know, who've migrated over the last
Speaker 2: ten years whatever it is. You know, you could find
Speaker 2: contradrictory views within these voters right where they could be
Speaker 2: really really committed to voting for anyone that is going
Speaker 2: to tackle climate change, but then be quite right wing
Speaker 2: on immigration. Right, So there's a lot of mixed views
Speaker 2: in there. However, the glue that binds more is his
Speaker 2: sense of being economically abandoned by the political class. A
Speaker 2: really good comment recently was made by a young man.
Speaker 2: He said, I feel they no longer of a benefit
Speaker 2: to me at all. I'm just getting buying life from
Speaker 2: our own means. And that's effectively how you'll probably sum
Speaker 2: up the sentiment out there.
Speaker 1: So what's the consequence of that? That's after the break?
Speaker 3: Hi Ruby Jones. Here seven am tells stories that need
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Speaker 1: Work because in the lead up to this election. I
Speaker 1: love to get a sense of which groups within the
Speaker 1: community are going to decide the results. Say, can you
Speaker 1: allow for me the demographics that we're dealing with and
Speaker 1: how they've changed since the last election. Yes.
Speaker 2: So in twenty twenty two it was the word I
Speaker 2: will define the progressive heart of this country screamed out
Speaker 2: loud and made itself hurt. And it was through the
Speaker 2: election of the till Independence and Labor winning in urban
Speaker 2: electrics like Higgins and Benelong, and so that community expressed
Speaker 2: itself very loudly. The outer urban areas and the regents
Speaker 2: were fairly predictable in they behaved. There wasn't much movement
Speaker 2: going on there. Fast forward to now and we have
Speaker 2: obviously an inflationary crisis which has hit those communities. They
Speaker 2: are the ones who are going to basically express themselves
Speaker 2: this time. There's always some group within Australia that defines
Speaker 2: an election. You know, in twenty nineteen it was those
Speaker 2: mining communities in Queensland and so on. This time around
Speaker 2: it will be millennial young families in the outer suburbs
Speaker 2: and regions. Particular news of I was in Victoria and
Speaker 2: particularly in the two big cities. They're effectively the groups
Speaker 2: that will animate the political landscape, but in a very
Speaker 2: different way. Victoria and New South Wales we're probably going
Speaker 2: to see a lot more volatility, and in Victoria a
Speaker 2: lot more volatility than any other place in the country.
Speaker 1: What do you put that down to a number.
Speaker 2: Of factors, obviously the state government, but the pandemic. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think a lot of political commentators have not paid
Speaker 2: enough attention to the psychological consequences of what happened to
Speaker 2: this city and particularly those communities that suffered the most
Speaker 2: economically and psychologically. One of the most common things will
Speaker 2: get in Melbourne's out of suburbs from young parents is
Speaker 2: their absolute fear of what's happened to their kids. Kids
Speaker 2: are different. My kids are different now than they were
Speaker 2: before the pandemic, and so there's a lot of anger
Speaker 2: with that, right They feel like they were completely abandoned,
Speaker 2: and of course then comes the inflationary crisis it hits
Speaker 2: them again. So you had these two massive economic events
Speaker 2: that have swept through these outer suburban areas of Melbourne
Speaker 2: and we're going to see it on election night. It's
Speaker 2: going to scream really loud. And if I was on
Speaker 2: the labor side, of politics.
Speaker 1: I'll be worried. Let's talk about the type of campaigning
Speaker 1: that we're going to see. We've already seen some semear campaigns,
Speaker 1: of course, I'm specifically thinking of advanced targeting tills in
Speaker 1: the Greens. How much of people listening to that style
Speaker 1: of campaigning.
Speaker 2: I would say that the communities within the electrics which
Speaker 2: the Tills and Greens occupy are probably the ones that
Speaker 2: are most likely to reject this type of campaigning. You know,
Speaker 2: We've done some research recently in this space, and yeah,
Speaker 2: I find it very, very hard to believe that these
Speaker 2: type of I would say antiquated approaches are going to
Speaker 2: work with probably what are the most politically connected astituents
Speaker 2: in the country.
Speaker 1: What do you mean by antiquator.
Speaker 2: Well, the antiquator because even in the outer suburbs, people
Speaker 2: are sick to death of this stuff, right, So, if
Speaker 2: you can't feed your kids, and you're having problems keeping
Speaker 2: a roof over your head, or you've got young children,
Speaker 2: or you've got adult children who you know won't be
Speaker 2: able to buy a home one day, and you're facing
Speaker 2: significant economic problems in your life, you're probably sick to
Speaker 2: death of hearing the political class play stupole. We did
Speaker 2: close to four hundred focus groups last year. Can't recall
Speaker 2: anyone saying to me, you know what, I really hope
Speaker 2: one day some politicians come up with a policy where
Speaker 2: dual citizens are are treated differently in this country, where
Speaker 2: we should just sack more public servants, or actually those
Speaker 2: flags really bug me. No, I don't hear any of that.
Speaker 2: You know, like hundreds and hundreds of hours of interviews,
Speaker 2: never heard anyone get really worked up about a flat.
Speaker 1: I have a personal curiosity around all this. We spend
Speaker 1: millions of dollars on spin merchants, on social media strategies,
Speaker 1: on traditional media strategies, on polsters. Do you have a sense,
Speaker 1: despite all of that, how many people actually make up
Speaker 1: their mind on election day in the polling booth, which
Speaker 1: may devote Yeah.
Speaker 2: I've always had a view, and even with my old
Speaker 2: job on working for the labor side of politics, that
Speaker 2: people form political views over a long period of time,
Speaker 2: over many years. So trying to change political opinion, I
Speaker 2: used to use this analogy quite regularly with young campaigners.
Speaker 2: Don't try to wait for the last few weeks because
Speaker 2: it's too late. You've got years to to change people's views.
Speaker 2: It is like trying to turn an all tanker on
Speaker 2: its accident in the bay. Takes a long time and
Speaker 2: so governments lose support over a long period of time
Speaker 2: through a death of a thousand cuts. And you know,
Speaker 2: in today's modern environment that doesn't necessarily mean they jump
Speaker 2: over to the other side of politics. They spray everywhere,
Speaker 2: and we saw that in Western Australia. The correction came
Speaker 2: but didn't help the Liberal Party.
Speaker 1: And the question you've been waiting for, because if the
Speaker 1: election was today, who would win.
Speaker 2: Labor minority government? I think that you know, Labour's running
Speaker 2: a better campaign. They are staying away from the culture wars,
Speaker 2: they're not taking debate and they're not running out there
Speaker 2: running policies around how many people they're going to in sack. Now,
Speaker 2: if Dalton turns around and starts talking about the economy
Speaker 2: and starts putting up some very significant policies that are
Speaker 2: going to reform our economy and reposition his political party
Speaker 2: as the party that represents working people in out of
Speaker 2: subers and regions, could be having a very different conversations
Speaker 2: in three four weeks time, because that's how fragile the
Speaker 2: situation is.
Speaker 1: Because thanks so much for coming on the show. Thank you. Kys.
Speaker 1: Samaris has previously conducted work for the Labor Party, but
Speaker 1: hasn't since twenty nineteen. He no longer accepts work from
Speaker 1: registered political parties. Seven Am is a daily show from
Speaker 1: Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper. It's made by Atticus Bastow,
Speaker 1: Shane Anderson, Chris Danegate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah mcvee,
Speaker 1: Travis Evans, Zultan Veacho and me Daniel James. Our theme
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Speaker 1: Below Bordier. You've been listening to seven Am, See you
Speaker 1: next week.
Speaker 2: No