WEBVTT - Is this humiliation for Hezbollah? 

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, November twenty seventh. Don't let Donald Trump mess

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<v Speaker 1>it up. That's the message from Australia's Ambassador to Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>Schautzian says Australia should keep restoring friendly ties with China,

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<v Speaker 1>but he warned part of the deal is for Australia

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<v Speaker 1>to support the so called reunification of China with Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>If you got fined for breaching COVID rules, you might

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<v Speaker 1>be in luck. The new South Wales government will withdraw

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five thousand fines issued during the pandemic and refund

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<v Speaker 1>about five point five million dollars after receiving fresh legal

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<v Speaker 1>advice that the penalties weren't valid. Those stories alive right

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<v Speaker 1>now at the Australian dot Com dot a U. A

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<v Speaker 1>truce between Israel and Hezbollah. What does that mean for

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East and the world Today? I speak to

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<v Speaker 1>our chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart for the new lay

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<v Speaker 1>of the land. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious to know what we think this truth or

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire might look like. And what's the difference between a

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<v Speaker 1>truce and just a defeat.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's a good question because at the moment it

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<v Speaker 2>looks like the very last details are being nutted out,

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<v Speaker 2>so we don't know all the details of this imminent agreement.

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<v Speaker 2>It does look like it will go through, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East who knows. What the agreement will basically

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<v Speaker 2>do is it will be an agreement for Hesbala to

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<v Speaker 2>move all of its forces north of a place called

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<v Speaker 2>the Latani River, which goes through the middle of Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 2>in other words, out of southern Lebanon and away from Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>And conversely, Israel will move its troops slowly out of

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<v Speaker 2>southern Lebanon. Of course, they invaded southern Lebanon in September,

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<v Speaker 2>and obviously both sides will stop lobbing missiles at each other.

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<v Speaker 2>So that is the bare bones of the agreement that

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<v Speaker 2>they're looking at. But your first question there, Claire, is

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<v Speaker 2>very relevant, what is the difference, because honestly, this is

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<v Speaker 2>a defeat for Hesbela no matter how they want to

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<v Speaker 2>paint it. This is a deal they never wanted to do,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's one that they're forced upon themselves by misjudging

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<v Speaker 2>Israel's intens and capability to hit back at them hard.

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<v Speaker 1>Hesbela started firing rockets into Israel very shortly after the

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<v Speaker 1>Hamas October seven attacks in southern Israel. So it looked

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time as though Israel was going to

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<v Speaker 1>be fighting a war on two fronts. It never really

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<v Speaker 1>turned into a real war, though. Did it came between

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<v Speaker 1>Israel and Hesbelah on the northern border.

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<v Speaker 2>No, that's right. Hesbela started what you call a low

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<v Speaker 2>level war. I think Claire lobbing missiles and rockets almost

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<v Speaker 2>every day, but often they fell fairly harmlessly into northern Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>But mind you, they were dangerous enough to occasionally hurt

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<v Speaker 2>and kill people, and they were dangerous enough to force

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<v Speaker 2>sixty thousand Israelis out of their homes in northern Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>But Israel was basically busy in trying to get rid

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<v Speaker 2>of Hamas in Gaza. That was the main focus. And

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<v Speaker 2>so what Israel did was effectively tolerate around about twelve

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<v Speaker 2>months of this low level conflict with Hesbela in the

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<v Speaker 2>north because they wanted to get rid of Gaza. They

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<v Speaker 2>didn't have the troops to do both, and once the

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<v Speaker 2>fighting wound down in Gaza, Hesbelah made a great miscalculation

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<v Speaker 2>of continuing their low level war and Israel came back,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, with unbelievable force in mid September when the

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<v Speaker 2>Mossad sabotaged their walkie talkies in their pages and killed

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<v Speaker 2>or maimed thousands of their troops and their commanders. And

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<v Speaker 2>that was followed almost immediately by the assassination of the

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<v Speaker 2>long time Hesbelo leader Hassan Israela in Beirut and also

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<v Speaker 2>some of his successes.

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<v Speaker 3>Hamajam around Supreme leader Ayatala Ali Haraminei called on Muslims

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<v Speaker 3>on Saturday to stand by the people of Lebanon and

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<v Speaker 3>his Lah in confronting quote, the wicked regime of Israel, and.

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<v Speaker 2>Then Israel did even more. They piled on with a

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<v Speaker 2>very broad based bombing of Hesbella military positions, and then

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<v Speaker 2>the troops, Israeli troops when it's a southern lebent on.

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<v Speaker 2>So Hezebalah honestly did not know what hit them. And

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<v Speaker 2>from this ceasefire deal, it's quite clear that they never

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<v Speaker 2>recover from those initial hits, and so they would be

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<v Speaker 2>signing this deal absolutely from extreme weakness, not from any

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<v Speaker 2>position of strength.

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<v Speaker 1>What now for Iran? Cam Iran is a sponsor of Hamas,

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<v Speaker 1>it's also a sponsor of Hesbellah, with different goals for

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<v Speaker 1>both of those groups, but united in their desire to

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<v Speaker 1>wipe Israel off the map? Where does this leave Iran?

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<v Speaker 2>This is also a black eye for Iran because Hesbela

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<v Speaker 2>is its beloved terror proxy. It adores Hesbela because it

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<v Speaker 2>keeps Israel very nervous, and of course Iran wants to

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<v Speaker 2>get rid of Israel basically, but Iran as given a

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<v Speaker 2>black eye itself with two military exchanges directly involving Israel

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<v Speaker 2>this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Israel has launched multiple air strikes on Iran in response

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<v Speaker 1>to what the Israeli Ministure called months of continuous attacks

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<v Speaker 1>from Tehran and its proxies.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's quite clear that Iran doesn't have the stomach

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<v Speaker 2>at this minute to take on Israel, either directly or indirectly.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think the fact that Iran has backed this

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<v Speaker 2>cease fire, It's told Hesbela to try and enter a

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<v Speaker 2>cease fire, means that it doesn't want to see Hesbela

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<v Speaker 2>totally destroyed. It wants to have enough of Hesbela left

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon so that with a ceasefi I deal they

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<v Speaker 2>can slowly rebuild Hesbela to be some sort of force.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's, honestly, from Iran's point of view, also a

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<v Speaker 2>sign of weakness and a fear that they will lose

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<v Speaker 2>their most favored terror proxy in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>And what about Lebanon? Can this beautiful country snowy mountains

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<v Speaker 1>on one side, beautiful hostline on the other, very similar

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<v Speaker 1>in topography to Israel, and has been very similar in

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<v Speaker 1>the sense that it's been, at least in part, a

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<v Speaker 1>functional democracy in the Middle East, where girls could walk

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<v Speaker 1>down the street in bikinis or in burkers, depending on

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<v Speaker 1>what they chose, a multi faith society. Now it seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be a sort of shattered shell of itself. What

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<v Speaker 1>now for Lebanon, Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>Your heart just breaks for Lebanon. They used to be

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<v Speaker 2>called the Paris of the East. It was a thriving,

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<v Speaker 2>wonderful country. It has really really struggled economically through corrupt

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<v Speaker 2>governments quite apart from the terror aspect, and of course,

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<v Speaker 2>tragically Iran effectively infiltrated it by creating Hazebala, which is

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<v Speaker 2>also a political force in the country as well as

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<v Speaker 2>a militant force, and so they've got a terror group

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<v Speaker 2>there that has brought this misery upon the population. Because

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<v Speaker 2>of course a lot of these Israeli attacks on Hesbalo

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<v Speaker 2>military sites have knocked down built, have claimed innocent civilians,

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<v Speaker 2>innocent Lebanese. So it's a tragedy on multiple fronts for Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think the piece deal, if it comes through,

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<v Speaker 2>is absolutely the best thing for the people.

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<v Speaker 1>What about the decision making in Israel about signing this truce,

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<v Speaker 1>cam You've written in The Australian that there was pressure

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<v Speaker 1>on Benjamin netna Who from some of the right wing

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<v Speaker 1>elements of his governing coalition not to do this, to

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<v Speaker 1>push for the full elimination of Hesbola. That has been

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<v Speaker 1>the strategy in Gaza, the full elimination of Maas. What's

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<v Speaker 1>the calculus there for Benjamin nettanie Who.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there's been a debate within the government. Within net

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<v Speaker 2>Who's coalition. The government has formally stated the only reason

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<v Speaker 2>that wentz and launched the offensive against Hesbola was to

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<v Speaker 2>create the safe conditions for the return of the sixty

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<v Speaker 2>thousand Israelis who've been displaced from their homes, not to

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<v Speaker 2>completely destroy Hesbella as a terrorist outfit. However, the more

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<v Speaker 2>right wing elements of Netniaho's cabinet think this is the

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<v Speaker 2>perfect moment historically for Israel to do that, to keep

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<v Speaker 2>going and going and going after hesbler and effectively destroyed

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<v Speaker 2>as a force for the future. It looks as if

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<v Speaker 2>Neaho has not taken that advice. He is keener for

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<v Speaker 2>at least a sixty day cease far rather than no

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<v Speaker 2>cease far at all. I mean, you could argue that

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<v Speaker 2>Hesbala has already been crippled for perhaps a decade because

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<v Speaker 2>of the leadership losses that they've lost. A lot of

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<v Speaker 2>their military arsenal has been smashed by Israel, so I

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<v Speaker 2>think you could argue that Hesbala actually has been rendered

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<v Speaker 2>impotent for a very long time.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, the United Nations International Criminal Court issued arrest

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<v Speaker 1>warrants for Israeli leadership. So where does that leave Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>Like everything else in the Middle East, this story is

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<v Speaker 1>moving fast. You can check out all the latest right

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<v Speaker 1>now at the Australian dot Com dot a yu and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll be back after this break. The International Criminal Court

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<v Speaker 1>has issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Nettinier who and for

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<v Speaker 1>Israel's former defense minister you are of Galant. Where does

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<v Speaker 1>that put Israel's nominal allies can be other Western democracies

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<v Speaker 1>of the world, who, to greater or lesser extents, have

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<v Speaker 1>stood by Israel since October seven, twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 2>It puts them in a terribly difficult position because their

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<v Speaker 2>court between their stated support for the defense, for Israel's

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<v Speaker 2>right to defend itself, and of course the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>they're signed up to the International Criminal Court and not

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<v Speaker 2>expecting it, I think, to make a judgment like this

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<v Speaker 2>against the leader of a democracy, and so their court

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<v Speaker 2>between hell and high water in a way, and so

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<v Speaker 2>a lot some of them have argued that legally they're

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<v Speaker 2>obliged to follow the International Criminal Court's ruling, which is true,

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<v Speaker 2>but not all countries have actually done that. Some countries

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<v Speaker 2>have actually ignored that ruling when variously to such a

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<v Speaker 2>Putin or whoever visit. So it's not an ironclad rule,

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<v Speaker 2>but certainly it's put almost all of the Western nations

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<v Speaker 2>in a real biden. It's clearly put Australia in a

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<v Speaker 2>buying because Penny Wong has only said that we respect

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<v Speaker 2>the courts, we aim to follow the court's rulings, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>But she hasn't clarified whether that would actually mean would

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<v Speaker 2>Benjamin data Who be arrested on Australian soil or would

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<v Speaker 2>he not? What does that actually mean? So the government

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<v Speaker 2>I think is giving noises that suggest they are not

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<v Speaker 2>on Israel's side in this discussion, but they're not making

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<v Speaker 2>it crystal clear about where they stand.

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<v Speaker 1>Does it effectively leave Benjamin Natanya who to remain in

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<v Speaker 1>Israel for the rest of his life and not travel

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<v Speaker 1>overseas well, it'll.

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<v Speaker 2>Be making lots of trips to America Claire because they

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<v Speaker 2>don't sign the ICC. It's one of the few places

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<v Speaker 2>he can go safely. But yes, you're right, I'm sure

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<v Speaker 2>Netna who would not travel anywhere unless he've got a

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<v Speaker 2>previous agreement from that government that they wouldn't actually arrest him.

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<v Speaker 2>So the places he can't go now includes Britain and

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<v Speaker 2>all of Europe, Australia, Canada, I mean, most of the

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<v Speaker 2>Western world. So it's a massive blow as far as him,

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<v Speaker 2>especially if he remains as Prime Minister to actually conduct

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<v Speaker 2>his Prime Ministerial duties abroad.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us on the front and don't forget to check

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<v Speaker 1>out all the latest reporting of the conflict in the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East and the rest of the world news you

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<v Speaker 1>need to know right now at the Australian dot com

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<v Speaker 1>dot au