Speaker 1: Ben, thanks for speaking with me. If you had to
Speaker 1: pick one seat that could act as a litmus test
Speaker 1: for either party, which way would you choose.
Speaker 2: Well, there's going to be a lot of seats that matter,
Speaker 2: but one that I am really paying attention to is Benelong.
Speaker 1: It's Christmas time for Ben Rowie. He's an election analyst
Speaker 1: who spends his days thinking about the historical trends in
Speaker 1: places like the seat of Benelong in Sydney.
Speaker 2: It's a seat that was a traditional safe Liberal seat
Speaker 2: before John Howard famously lost it in two thousand and seven.
Speaker 2: Labour now holds it, but it was actually redrawn in
Speaker 2: the redistribution such that it's now on paper a Liberal
Speaker 2: Party seat. Earlier in this campaign, everyone thought it was
Speaker 2: a goner for Labor that they were going to lose
Speaker 2: that seat, But as they've been recovering in the polls,
Speaker 2: seats like Benelong are now looking a lot more competitive.
Speaker 1: As we head to the polls this weekend, Ben's been
Speaker 1: calculated the path to victory for the major parties. The
Speaker 1: Coalition needs to pick up eighteen seats to win, while
Speaker 1: if Labour loses four seats they lose their majority. But
Speaker 1: as the electric shifts in all kinds of surprising ways.
Speaker 1: The path to victory for the major parties is more
Speaker 1: complicated than ever. From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This
Speaker 1: is seven am today. Analyst at the tally Room, Ben
Speaker 1: Rowy on the seats that were beside the election and
Speaker 1: why Victoria matters more than ever. It's Monday, April twenty eight.
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about Peter Dutton's past
Speaker 1: to victory. We know he's spent his leadership focused on
Speaker 1: outer suburbs and regional seats. So which seats does he
Speaker 1: look like winning that the Coalition doesn't already have.
Speaker 2: Yes, So in twenty twenty two, the Coalition lost a
Speaker 2: bunch of seats in the inner cities. That was a
Speaker 2: big part of their losses. They lost seats to Teal Independence,
Speaker 2: they lost seats to Labor and a few to the Greens.
Speaker 2: A lot of those seats were in the inner city.
Speaker 2: There was a couple of others that were kind of
Speaker 2: mid suburban seats that have large Chinese populations. And then
Speaker 2: they also lost a number of seats in Western Australia.
Speaker 2: And so a lot of the seats that are in
Speaker 2: their path to victory are those electorates, but the Coalition
Speaker 2: has also been looking for new seats, seats that they've
Speaker 2: never won before, where they can try and focus their efforts,
Speaker 2: seemingly as a way to kind of counterbalance an expectation
Speaker 2: that it might be hard to win back those inner
Speaker 2: city seats they lost last election.
Speaker 1: Tell me more about those seats, particularly the ones that
Speaker 1: they've never won before.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I've been really fascinated by the way Peter
Speaker 2: Dutton has focused on petrol prices talking about fuel excise.
Speaker 2: There's a number of seats in the outer suburbs, mostly
Speaker 2: of Sydney and Melbourne. I'm thinking of Wherrerower in the
Speaker 2: southwest of Sydney that covers parts of Liverpool area. That
Speaker 2: seat was held by Golf Whitlam was held by Mark
Speaker 2: Latham was a very safe labor seat, but with each
Speaker 2: wave of politics going this way and that back and forth,
Speaker 2: it has been getting less and less safe for labor
Speaker 2: and it's probably a little bit beyond the stretch of
Speaker 2: the coalition. But those are the kinds of seats that
Speaker 2: the Coalition is hoping to bring into their orbit so
Speaker 2: that they can make up for those Teal losses. So
Speaker 2: where was one of them. There's Hawk in the outer
Speaker 2: suburbs of Melbourne. You've got Holton Bruce in the southeast
Speaker 2: of Melbourne, and then you also have Shortland, which is
Speaker 2: on the southern outskirts of Newcastle in New South Wales.
Speaker 1: You mentioned it before, but a lot has been made
Speaker 1: of the Teal seats taken from the Liberals the last election.
Speaker 1: Any of them at risk of going back to the
Speaker 1: Liberals set this election or changing hands to other candidates.
Speaker 2: Most of the Teal seats are not particularly safe for
Speaker 2: the Independence who hold them. They are all first term MPs, though,
Speaker 2: and there is historically a lot of evidence that usually
Speaker 2: independent MPs when they go up for election for the
Speaker 2: first time after they first win their seat, get a
Speaker 2: big swing towards them and solidify their hold on their seat.
Speaker 2: That happened with Zalie Stegle in twenty twenty two because
Speaker 2: she was elected in twenty nineteen. So the others they
Speaker 2: may get that swing towards them, but it may be
Speaker 2: a little bit different because so many of them were
Speaker 2: all elected at the same time. The dynamics might play
Speaker 2: out a little bit differently. We're going to have to
Speaker 2: wait and see there's definitely a few. I would mention
Speaker 2: Curtain in Perth Mckella in Northern Sydney. They are both
Speaker 2: very marginal teal seats and I think if any of
Speaker 2: them are going to fall, they're the ones that are
Speaker 2: probably the most vulnerable. But you've got to remember before
Speaker 2: twenty to twenty two, Before twenty nineteen, the Liberal Party
Speaker 2: had a lock on these seats. These were traditional safe
Speaker 2: seats where party leaders came from. You know, most of
Speaker 2: the party's leaders over recent decades represented seats that are
Speaker 2: now held by tel nps IT seats like Warringa and
Speaker 2: Wentworth and Couyong. So you know, even if they can
Speaker 2: win some of these seats back as marginal seats, they're
Speaker 2: going to play a very different role in that Liberal base.
Speaker 1: Let's look at a couple of those tal seats in
Speaker 1: Melbourne where the battle to win those seats seems to
Speaker 1: be like at its fear. Talk to me about Monic
Speaker 1: Ryan's chances in Kujong and Zoe Daniel's chances in Goldstein.
Speaker 2: So both those seats have been traditional safe Liberal seats
Speaker 2: before they were lost at the last election, and the
Speaker 2: Liberal Party clearly would like to win them back. And
Speaker 2: are putting a big effort into those seats. Both those
Speaker 2: MPs have strong bases of volunteer support, and there's also
Speaker 2: evidence from other elections, council elections and state elections that
Speaker 2: there is a lot of support there for independence. We've
Speaker 2: been seeing this trend nationally for quite a while now
Speaker 2: that progressive parties have been doing better in urban areas.
Speaker 2: They've been doing better amongst voters who have higher education levels,
Speaker 2: higher income levels, and some of these electorates like Kujong
Speaker 2: and Goldstein fit that quite well. So it didn't come
Speaker 2: out of the blue in twenty twenty two when these
Speaker 2: MPs lost their seats. You know, the Greens did quite
Speaker 2: well in Kujong in twenty nineteen, didn't win, but they
Speaker 2: were quite competitive. So I think there is a lot
Speaker 2: changing about these electorates that is going to make things
Speaker 2: easier for these independents. We're also seeing more development in
Speaker 2: these areas, a lot of new residents moving into the
Speaker 2: area that maybe are a bit different to the kind
Speaker 2: of old money base that has traditionally dominated these kind
Speaker 2: of eastern Southeastern electorates in Melbourne, and that's having an
Speaker 2: impact and I think a lot of those voters are
Speaker 2: going to favor the independent over the Liberal So I
Speaker 2: would probably say those independents have a good chance of
Speaker 2: being re elected, but the Liberal Party hasn't given up
Speaker 2: on those seats. They really don't want to let those
Speaker 2: independents lock themselves in.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break, can Labor improve its chances
Speaker 1: in Queensland?
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Speaker 1: We know Peter Dutton there has seen huge opportunity in Victoria.
Speaker 1: He launched his campaign there. What are the factors on
Speaker 1: a state level that are contributing to the Liberals' rise
Speaker 1: and fortunes there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So when the coalition was at its highest point
Speaker 2: in the polls in February, they were gaining ground everywhere,
Speaker 2: but they were gaining by far the most ground in Victoria,
Speaker 2: while they're only gaining a little bit of support elsewhere
Speaker 2: right now, though, these state polling averages show that Labour's
Speaker 2: actually gaining a swing in every other mainland state, but
Speaker 2: in Victoria there's still a swing of over two percent
Speaker 2: to the Coalition. I think part of the story here
Speaker 2: is the state Labor government. Labor has been in power
Speaker 2: for all but four years over the last twenty six years.
Speaker 2: And and you know, Jacinta Allen is the second premier
Speaker 2: in the current government. She's not as popular as a
Speaker 2: predecessor of the government, just doesn't quite have the popularity
Speaker 2: that it once did. And so I think that is
Speaker 2: bleeding into federal politics and that is having an effect.
Speaker 2: You know, Victoria has been a pretty solid state for
Speaker 2: Labor at a federal level for quite a while now.
Speaker 2: It's been one of their better states. And if the
Speaker 2: results play out the way the Poles are saying right now,
Speaker 2: they're going to lose that advantage in Victoria. Victoria is
Speaker 2: going to go right back to being basically in line
Speaker 2: with national polls.
Speaker 1: Looking beyond Victoria, Western Australia was crucial in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two for the Labor Party. How are they fearing this
Speaker 1: time around.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So Western Australia historically has been one of the
Speaker 2: most conservative states in Australia, but the twenty twenty two
Speaker 2: election totally changed things. In Wa, Labor had already had
Speaker 2: this enormous landslide victory in twenty twenty one at the
Speaker 2: state election. COVID had really had an impact on state politics,
Speaker 2: and they did really well in the federal election. They
Speaker 2: were on a number of seats. They even won a
Speaker 2: third Senator in Wa, which they'd never done before, which
Speaker 2: was essential to them getting a Progressive Senate majority. And
Speaker 2: we were all expecting that after that election, Wa would
Speaker 2: kind of go a bit back towards normality, you know,
Speaker 2: that Labour would lose some support there. Labour's clearly put
Speaker 2: a lot of effort into maintaining its position in Western
Speaker 2: Australia over the last three years. Right now though they're
Speaker 2: not losing any ground in Western Australia. It was the
Speaker 2: best result last election, and if the polls were right,
Speaker 2: it would be their best result this election too.
Speaker 1: And in Queensland we had the so called Green slide
Speaker 1: at the last election with three Greens MPs being elected.
Speaker 1: How are those seats looking.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so those three inner city Green seats. They're all
Speaker 2: really complicated because they're not clean two horse races. They're
Speaker 2: three candidate contests where, particularly in Brisbane and Griffith, the
Speaker 2: Greens both need to stay ahead of Labor in the
Speaker 2: preference count and then get enough preferences to beat the
Speaker 2: Liberal National Party.
Speaker 1: Right way it's.
Speaker 2: Looking is they're looking pretty good in Griffith where they
Speaker 2: are clearly the more popular Progressive party, and then they
Speaker 2: are clearly beating the l and P. They're looking Okaine Ryan,
Speaker 2: where Labour is a lot weaker and it's more of
Speaker 2: a straight Greens versus Liberal contest. Brisbane's a bit trickier
Speaker 2: because Labour's support is a bit resurgent in Brisbane, and
Speaker 2: there's a chance that in Brisbane, even if the Greens
Speaker 2: vote stays the same, if there's a swing from the
Speaker 2: Liberals to Labor, Labour might overtake the Greens and the
Speaker 2: Greens might get knocked out. Queensland more generally, was a
Speaker 2: state where Labor really didn't get any luck at the
Speaker 2: last election. They didn't contribute at all towards Labour winning government.
Speaker 2: Labor did get a swing towards them across the state,
Speaker 2: but they didn't gain a single seat. Indeed, they lost
Speaker 2: one in the seat of Griffith. Right now, the polls
Speaker 2: do say that Labour might pick up a little bit
Speaker 2: of extra support in Queensland. So there are a bunch
Speaker 2: of Coalish and marginals in Queensland that you know. Last
Speaker 2: time Labour one government in two thousand and seven, a
Speaker 2: lot of these seats flipped to Labor, but Labour didn't
Speaker 2: win any of them into two and I reckon they
Speaker 2: have a chance of winning a couple.
Speaker 1: Labor has been persistently polling better than the Coalition throughout
Speaker 1: the campaign. Is there now a real chance that the
Speaker 1: government could be returned with a majority in the Parliament.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been seeing over the last few weeks Labour's
Speaker 2: polls have really been improving quite quickly, and we're now
Speaker 2: at a point where I think we have to consider
Speaker 2: the possibility that even though it's looked like we're going
Speaker 2: to get a hung parliament, and even though the large
Speaker 2: size of the crossbench increases those chances, it is possible Labor,
Speaker 2: like they did in twenty twenty two, could still scrape
Speaker 2: across the line and get a majority in their own right.
Speaker 2: So it's a good reminder that even though a lot
Speaker 2: of people now don't vote for Labor and the Coalition,
Speaker 2: they vote for minor parties and independents in the vast
Speaker 2: majority of seats. In the end, it's still a Labor
Speaker 2: versus coalition contest, and most seats in Parliament are still
Speaker 2: Labor or Coalition. But I think minority governments and hung
Speaker 2: parliaments are going to become more common and the major
Speaker 2: parties are going to have to work out how they
Speaker 2: deal with that. Clearly, they're not comfortable with it. They'd
Speaker 2: rather it didn't happen that way, and they would be
Speaker 2: much more comfortable getting a majority in their own right,
Speaker 2: but they're going to have to find ways to negotiate.
Speaker 2: You know, Labor clearly isn't very comfortable with its relationship
Speaker 2: with the Greens, but an increasingly large proportion of those
Speaker 2: people who give Labor a preference are not actually Labor voters.
Speaker 2: You know, Labor got about fifty two percent of the
Speaker 2: two party preferred vote the last election, but their primary
Speaker 2: vote was less than thirty three percent, So almost one
Speaker 2: in five people in the country now preference Labor but
Speaker 2: didn't vote for Labor as their number one vote, and
Speaker 2: so I think that's an increasingly large share of Labour's
Speaker 2: base that are going to expect that the party can
Speaker 2: do something other than just take its bat and ball
Speaker 2: and go home if they find themselves in the Home Parliament.
Speaker 1: Ben, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for
Speaker 1: having me. Also in the news. An estimated two hundred
Speaker 1: thousand people have attendants of Peter Square in the Vaikan
Speaker 1: for the funeral mass of Pope Francis. US President Donald
Speaker 1: Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski were both president at
Speaker 1: the funeral, the first time the two men have been
Speaker 1: in the same place since they're now infamous, meeting in
Speaker 1: the Oval Office in March. Trump and Zelenski used the
Speaker 1: funeral as an opportunity to take part in private discussions
Speaker 1: about a potential deal between Russia and Ukraine that could
Speaker 1: lead to a ceasefire and a Dutton leg government would
Speaker 1: make electric vehicle drivers pay more for using roads, according
Speaker 1: to the coalition's transport spokesperson, Bridget Mackenzie. Senator Mackenzie said
Speaker 1: it was an issue of equity, given other motorists pay
Speaker 1: for road maintenance through the fuel excise. In an interview
Speaker 1: on Insiders, Senator Mackenzie floated the idea, but would not
Speaker 1: say how ev drivers would be made to pay, only
Speaker 1: insisting it would not be a tax. I'm Daniel James.
Speaker 1: This is seven am. See you tomorrow.