WEBVTT - The seats that will decide the election

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<v Speaker 1>Ben, thanks for speaking with me. If you had to

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<v Speaker 1>pick one seat that could act as a litmus test

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<v Speaker 1>for either party, which way would you choose.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there's going to be a lot of seats that matter,

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<v Speaker 2>but one that I am really paying attention to is Benelong.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Christmas time for Ben Rowie. He's an election analyst

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<v Speaker 1>who spends his days thinking about the historical trends in

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<v Speaker 1>places like the seat of Benelong in Sydney.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a seat that was a traditional safe Liberal seat

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<v Speaker 2>before John Howard famously lost it in two thousand and seven.

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<v Speaker 2>Labour now holds it, but it was actually redrawn in

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<v Speaker 2>the redistribution such that it's now on paper a Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>Party seat. Earlier in this campaign, everyone thought it was

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<v Speaker 2>a goner for Labor that they were going to lose

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<v Speaker 2>that seat, But as they've been recovering in the polls,

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<v Speaker 2>seats like Benelong are now looking a lot more competitive.

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<v Speaker 1>As we head to the polls this weekend, Ben's been

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<v Speaker 1>calculated the path to victory for the major parties. The

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<v Speaker 1>Coalition needs to pick up eighteen seats to win, while

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<v Speaker 1>if Labour loses four seats they lose their majority. But

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<v Speaker 1>as the electric shifts in all kinds of surprising ways.

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<v Speaker 1>The path to victory for the major parties is more

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<v Speaker 1>complicated than ever. From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This

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<v Speaker 1>is seven am today. Analyst at the tally Room, Ben

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<v Speaker 1>Rowy on the seats that were beside the election and

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<v Speaker 1>why Victoria matters more than ever. It's Monday, April twenty eight.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to talk to you about Peter Dutton's past

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<v Speaker 1>to victory. We know he's spent his leadership focused on

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<v Speaker 1>outer suburbs and regional seats. So which seats does he

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<v Speaker 1>look like winning that the Coalition doesn't already have.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, So in twenty twenty two, the Coalition lost a

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<v Speaker 2>bunch of seats in the inner cities. That was a

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<v Speaker 2>big part of their losses. They lost seats to Teal Independence,

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<v Speaker 2>they lost seats to Labor and a few to the Greens.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of those seats were in the inner city.

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<v Speaker 2>There was a couple of others that were kind of

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<v Speaker 2>mid suburban seats that have large Chinese populations. And then

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<v Speaker 2>they also lost a number of seats in Western Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>And so a lot of the seats that are in

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<v Speaker 2>their path to victory are those electorates, but the Coalition

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<v Speaker 2>has also been looking for new seats, seats that they've

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<v Speaker 2>never won before, where they can try and focus their efforts,

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<v Speaker 2>seemingly as a way to kind of counterbalance an expectation

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<v Speaker 2>that it might be hard to win back those inner

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<v Speaker 2>city seats they lost last election.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me more about those seats, particularly the ones that

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<v Speaker 1>they've never won before.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I've been really fascinated by the way Peter

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<v Speaker 2>Dutton has focused on petrol prices talking about fuel excise.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a number of seats in the outer suburbs, mostly

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<v Speaker 2>of Sydney and Melbourne. I'm thinking of Wherrerower in the

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<v Speaker 2>southwest of Sydney that covers parts of Liverpool area. That

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<v Speaker 2>seat was held by Golf Whitlam was held by Mark

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<v Speaker 2>Latham was a very safe labor seat, but with each

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<v Speaker 2>wave of politics going this way and that back and forth,

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<v Speaker 2>it has been getting less and less safe for labor

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<v Speaker 2>and it's probably a little bit beyond the stretch of

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<v Speaker 2>the coalition. But those are the kinds of seats that

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<v Speaker 2>the Coalition is hoping to bring into their orbit so

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<v Speaker 2>that they can make up for those Teal losses. So

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<v Speaker 2>where was one of them. There's Hawk in the outer

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<v Speaker 2>suburbs of Melbourne. You've got Holton Bruce in the southeast

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<v Speaker 2>of Melbourne, and then you also have Shortland, which is

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<v Speaker 2>on the southern outskirts of Newcastle in New South Wales.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned it before, but a lot has been made

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<v Speaker 1>of the Teal seats taken from the Liberals the last election.

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<v Speaker 1>Any of them at risk of going back to the

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<v Speaker 1>Liberals set this election or changing hands to other candidates.

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<v Speaker 2>Most of the Teal seats are not particularly safe for

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<v Speaker 2>the Independence who hold them. They are all first term MPs, though,

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<v Speaker 2>and there is historically a lot of evidence that usually

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<v Speaker 2>independent MPs when they go up for election for the

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<v Speaker 2>first time after they first win their seat, get a

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<v Speaker 2>big swing towards them and solidify their hold on their seat.

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<v Speaker 2>That happened with Zalie Stegle in twenty twenty two because

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<v Speaker 2>she was elected in twenty nineteen. So the others they

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<v Speaker 2>may get that swing towards them, but it may be

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit different because so many of them were

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<v Speaker 2>all elected at the same time. The dynamics might play

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<v Speaker 2>out a little bit differently. We're going to have to

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<v Speaker 2>wait and see there's definitely a few. I would mention

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<v Speaker 2>Curtain in Perth Mckella in Northern Sydney. They are both

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<v Speaker 2>very marginal teal seats and I think if any of

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<v Speaker 2>them are going to fall, they're the ones that are

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<v Speaker 2>probably the most vulnerable. But you've got to remember before

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<v Speaker 2>twenty to twenty two, Before twenty nineteen, the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>had a lock on these seats. These were traditional safe

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<v Speaker 2>seats where party leaders came from. You know, most of

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<v Speaker 2>the party's leaders over recent decades represented seats that are

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<v Speaker 2>now held by tel nps IT seats like Warringa and

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<v Speaker 2>Wentworth and Couyong. So you know, even if they can

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<v Speaker 2>win some of these seats back as marginal seats, they're

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<v Speaker 2>going to play a very different role in that Liberal base.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's look at a couple of those tal seats in

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<v Speaker 1>Melbourne where the battle to win those seats seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be like at its fear. Talk to me about Monic

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<v Speaker 1>Ryan's chances in Kujong and Zoe Daniel's chances in Goldstein.

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<v Speaker 2>So both those seats have been traditional safe Liberal seats

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<v Speaker 2>before they were lost at the last election, and the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal Party clearly would like to win them back. And

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<v Speaker 2>are putting a big effort into those seats. Both those

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<v Speaker 2>MPs have strong bases of volunteer support, and there's also

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<v Speaker 2>evidence from other elections, council elections and state elections that

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<v Speaker 2>there is a lot of support there for independence. We've

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<v Speaker 2>been seeing this trend nationally for quite a while now

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<v Speaker 2>that progressive parties have been doing better in urban areas.

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<v Speaker 2>They've been doing better amongst voters who have higher education levels,

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<v Speaker 2>higher income levels, and some of these electorates like Kujong

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<v Speaker 2>and Goldstein fit that quite well. So it didn't come

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<v Speaker 2>out of the blue in twenty twenty two when these

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<v Speaker 2>MPs lost their seats. You know, the Greens did quite

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<v Speaker 2>well in Kujong in twenty nineteen, didn't win, but they

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<v Speaker 2>were quite competitive. So I think there is a lot

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<v Speaker 2>changing about these electorates that is going to make things

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<v Speaker 2>easier for these independents. We're also seeing more development in

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<v Speaker 2>these areas, a lot of new residents moving into the

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<v Speaker 2>area that maybe are a bit different to the kind

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<v Speaker 2>of old money base that has traditionally dominated these kind

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<v Speaker 2>of eastern Southeastern electorates in Melbourne, and that's having an

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<v Speaker 2>impact and I think a lot of those voters are

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<v Speaker 2>going to favor the independent over the Liberal So I

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<v Speaker 2>would probably say those independents have a good chance of

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<v Speaker 2>being re elected, but the Liberal Party hasn't given up

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<v Speaker 2>on those seats. They really don't want to let those

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<v Speaker 2>independents lock themselves in.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break, can Labor improve its chances

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<v Speaker 1>in Queensland?

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<v Speaker 3>Hi, Ruby Jones. Here, seven Am tell stories that need

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<v Speaker 1>We know Peter Dutton there has seen huge opportunity in Victoria.

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<v Speaker 1>He launched his campaign there. What are the factors on

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<v Speaker 1>a state level that are contributing to the Liberals' rise

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<v Speaker 1>and fortunes there?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So when the coalition was at its highest point

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<v Speaker 2>in the polls in February, they were gaining ground everywhere,

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<v Speaker 2>but they were gaining by far the most ground in Victoria,

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<v Speaker 2>while they're only gaining a little bit of support elsewhere

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<v Speaker 2>right now, though, these state polling averages show that Labour's

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<v Speaker 2>actually gaining a swing in every other mainland state, but

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<v Speaker 2>in Victoria there's still a swing of over two percent

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<v Speaker 2>to the Coalition. I think part of the story here

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<v Speaker 2>is the state Labor government. Labor has been in power

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<v Speaker 2>for all but four years over the last twenty six years.

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<v Speaker 2>And and you know, Jacinta Allen is the second premier

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<v Speaker 2>in the current government. She's not as popular as a

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<v Speaker 2>predecessor of the government, just doesn't quite have the popularity

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<v Speaker 2>that it once did. And so I think that is

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<v Speaker 2>bleeding into federal politics and that is having an effect.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Victoria has been a pretty solid state for

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<v Speaker 2>Labor at a federal level for quite a while now.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been one of their better states. And if the

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<v Speaker 2>results play out the way the Poles are saying right now,

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<v Speaker 2>they're going to lose that advantage in Victoria. Victoria is

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<v Speaker 2>going to go right back to being basically in line

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<v Speaker 2>with national polls.

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<v Speaker 1>Looking beyond Victoria, Western Australia was crucial in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>two for the Labor Party. How are they fearing this

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<v Speaker 1>time around.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. So Western Australia historically has been one of the

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<v Speaker 2>most conservative states in Australia, but the twenty twenty two

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<v Speaker 2>election totally changed things. In Wa, Labor had already had

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<v Speaker 2>this enormous landslide victory in twenty twenty one at the

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<v Speaker 2>state election. COVID had really had an impact on state politics,

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<v Speaker 2>and they did really well in the federal election. They

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<v Speaker 2>were on a number of seats. They even won a

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<v Speaker 2>third Senator in Wa, which they'd never done before, which

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<v Speaker 2>was essential to them getting a Progressive Senate majority. And

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<v Speaker 2>we were all expecting that after that election, Wa would

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<v Speaker 2>kind of go a bit back towards normality, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>that Labour would lose some support there. Labour's clearly put

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of effort into maintaining its position in Western

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<v Speaker 2>Australia over the last three years. Right now though they're

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<v Speaker 2>not losing any ground in Western Australia. It was the

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<v Speaker 2>best result last election, and if the polls were right,

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<v Speaker 2>it would be their best result this election too.

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<v Speaker 1>And in Queensland we had the so called Green slide

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<v Speaker 1>at the last election with three Greens MPs being elected.

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<v Speaker 1>How are those seats looking.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so those three inner city Green seats. They're all

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<v Speaker 2>really complicated because they're not clean two horse races. They're

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<v Speaker 2>three candidate contests where, particularly in Brisbane and Griffith, the

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<v Speaker 2>Greens both need to stay ahead of Labor in the

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<v Speaker 2>preference count and then get enough preferences to beat the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal National Party.

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<v Speaker 1>Right way it's.

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<v Speaker 2>Looking is they're looking pretty good in Griffith where they

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<v Speaker 2>are clearly the more popular Progressive party, and then they

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<v Speaker 2>are clearly beating the l and P. They're looking Okaine Ryan,

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<v Speaker 2>where Labour is a lot weaker and it's more of

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<v Speaker 2>a straight Greens versus Liberal contest. Brisbane's a bit trickier

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<v Speaker 2>because Labour's support is a bit resurgent in Brisbane, and

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<v Speaker 2>there's a chance that in Brisbane, even if the Greens

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<v Speaker 2>vote stays the same, if there's a swing from the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberals to Labor, Labour might overtake the Greens and the

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<v Speaker 2>Greens might get knocked out. Queensland more generally, was a

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<v Speaker 2>state where Labor really didn't get any luck at the

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<v Speaker 2>last election. They didn't contribute at all towards Labour winning government.

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<v Speaker 2>Labor did get a swing towards them across the state,

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<v Speaker 2>but they didn't gain a single seat. Indeed, they lost

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<v Speaker 2>one in the seat of Griffith. Right now, the polls

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<v Speaker 2>do say that Labour might pick up a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of extra support in Queensland. So there are a bunch

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<v Speaker 2>of Coalish and marginals in Queensland that you know. Last

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<v Speaker 2>time Labour one government in two thousand and seven, a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of these seats flipped to Labor, but Labour didn't

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<v Speaker 2>win any of them into two and I reckon they

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<v Speaker 2>have a chance of winning a couple.

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<v Speaker 1>Labor has been persistently polling better than the Coalition throughout

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<v Speaker 1>the campaign. Is there now a real chance that the

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<v Speaker 1>government could be returned with a majority in the Parliament.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we've been seeing over the last few weeks Labour's

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<v Speaker 2>polls have really been improving quite quickly, and we're now

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<v Speaker 2>at a point where I think we have to consider

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<v Speaker 2>the possibility that even though it's looked like we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to get a hung parliament, and even though the large

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<v Speaker 2>size of the crossbench increases those chances, it is possible Labor,

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<v Speaker 2>like they did in twenty twenty two, could still scrape

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<v Speaker 2>across the line and get a majority in their own right.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's a good reminder that even though a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people now don't vote for Labor and the Coalition,

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<v Speaker 2>they vote for minor parties and independents in the vast

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<v Speaker 2>majority of seats. In the end, it's still a Labor

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<v Speaker 2>versus coalition contest, and most seats in Parliament are still

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<v Speaker 2>Labor or Coalition. But I think minority governments and hung

0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:54.200
<v Speaker 2>parliaments are going to become more common and the major

0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:55.840
<v Speaker 2>parties are going to have to work out how they

0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.280
<v Speaker 2>deal with that. Clearly, they're not comfortable with it. They'd

0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:00.480
<v Speaker 2>rather it didn't happen that way, and they would be

0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.080
<v Speaker 2>much more comfortable getting a majority in their own right,

0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.280
<v Speaker 2>but they're going to have to find ways to negotiate.

0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:10.160
<v Speaker 2>You know, Labor clearly isn't very comfortable with its relationship

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<v Speaker 2>with the Greens, but an increasingly large proportion of those

0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 2>people who give Labor a preference are not actually Labor voters.

0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:20.120
<v Speaker 2>You know, Labor got about fifty two percent of the

0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 2>two party preferred vote the last election, but their primary

0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:25.800
<v Speaker 2>vote was less than thirty three percent, So almost one

0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.080
<v Speaker 2>in five people in the country now preference Labor but

0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.520
<v Speaker 2>didn't vote for Labor as their number one vote, and

0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:34.600
<v Speaker 2>so I think that's an increasingly large share of Labour's

0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 2>base that are going to expect that the party can

0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 2>do something other than just take its bat and ball

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 2>and go home if they find themselves in the Home Parliament.

0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Ben, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for

0:12:46.800 --> 0:13:11.959
<v Speaker 1>having me. Also in the news. An estimated two hundred

0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 1>thousand people have attendants of Peter Square in the Vaikan

0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.439
<v Speaker 1>for the funeral mass of Pope Francis. US President Donald

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:22.200
<v Speaker 1>Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski were both president at

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the funeral, the first time the two men have been

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:27.160
<v Speaker 1>in the same place since they're now infamous, meeting in

0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:30.920
<v Speaker 1>the Oval Office in March. Trump and Zelenski used the

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.120
<v Speaker 1>funeral as an opportunity to take part in private discussions

0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.440
<v Speaker 1>about a potential deal between Russia and Ukraine that could

0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:42.040
<v Speaker 1>lead to a ceasefire and a Dutton leg government would

0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 1>make electric vehicle drivers pay more for using roads, according

0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:50.840
<v Speaker 1>to the coalition's transport spokesperson, Bridget Mackenzie. Senator Mackenzie said

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.719
<v Speaker 1>it was an issue of equity, given other motorists pay

0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 1>for road maintenance through the fuel excise. In an interview

0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:01.000
<v Speaker 1>on Insiders, Senator Mackenzie floated the idea, but would not

0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:04.200
<v Speaker 1>say how ev drivers would be made to pay, only

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 1>insisting it would not be a tax. I'm Daniel James.

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. See you tomorrow.