WEBVTT - This could only end in a very bad place

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<v Speaker 1>We are full steam ahead.

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<v Speaker 2>We are full steam ahead.

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<v Speaker 3>At the direction of the President.

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<v Speaker 2>Aucus is full steam ahead, as he said, and I

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<v Speaker 2>know the new market in word.

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<v Speaker 3>It's as if they had the same speech writer.

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<v Speaker 4>Finally, as we move, as was mentioned, full steam ahead.

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<v Speaker 4>On August, we applaud Australia's upcoming delivery of an additional

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<v Speaker 4>one billion to help expand US submarine production capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>When Richard Miles and Penny Wong stood beside the US

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<v Speaker 1>counterparts in Washington this week, everyone sang from the same songbook,

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<v Speaker 1>talking up the alliances, bright future and planning to visit

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<v Speaker 1>each other.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're very grateful that you were willing to come

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<v Speaker 2>here and join us, and we look forward to reciprocating

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<v Speaker 2>in the new year by visiting you in Australia as

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<v Speaker 2>I look forward to and it's one of my I

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<v Speaker 2>actually have never been, and I need to go.

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<v Speaker 3>When you see such alignment, I'm in four different peoples

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<v Speaker 3>from two different countries saying essentially the same thing. You

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<v Speaker 3>have to wonder, gee, what's going on here? Is there

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<v Speaker 3>no point of disagreement at all? But no, apparently not,

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<v Speaker 3>And they're all quite convinced that we're powering ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>But behind those assurances is a Pentagon review of ORCUS

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<v Speaker 1>that the public isn't allowed to read and in camera,

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<v Speaker 1>a handpicked orcast committee that will mostly meet in secret,

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<v Speaker 1>raising questions about what our government is trading away to

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<v Speaker 1>stay friends with our most powerful ally.

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<v Speaker 3>Frankly, this seems to me a distortion of reality, but

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<v Speaker 3>it's certainly enthusiastic, and I have to give them credit

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<v Speaker 3>for that.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to seven am today.

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<v Speaker 1>Former Director of War Studies for the Australian Army and

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<v Speaker 1>adjunct professor at the University of New South Wales, doctor

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<v Speaker 1>Albert Plazzo, on the US military's plans for expansion on

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<v Speaker 1>Australian soil and what the secrecy surrounding ORCUS is really hiding.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, December tenth, Albert. During this press conference, there

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<v Speaker 1>was a lot of talk about AUCUST going full steam ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>but not a lot of detail about what that actually

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<v Speaker 1>looks like. So tell me what you gleaned from what

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<v Speaker 1>we actually heard.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they trotted out all the traditional remarks, including the

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<v Speaker 3>ones that you know, Australians and Americans are fought side

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<v Speaker 3>by side in every major war since the First World War.

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<v Speaker 2>But it is our only ally that has fought with

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<v Speaker 2>us in every war over the last over the certainly

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<v Speaker 2>over the last four or five decades, and we're very

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<v Speaker 2>grateful to them for that, and this is a very

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<v Speaker 2>strong partnership.

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<v Speaker 3>Why that is relevant, nobody has ever said, but it

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<v Speaker 3>certainly is used to indicate that we're closer than ever

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<v Speaker 3>and closer than any two countries could ever be. But

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<v Speaker 3>the last time I checked, Australia and the United States

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<v Speaker 3>were different countries, and being different countries, you would expect

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<v Speaker 3>us to have different interests.

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<v Speaker 1>And perhaps the most detail that we did get was

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<v Speaker 1>from Pete Hegseeth, the Secretary of Defense. So let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about what he said about how exactly the US and

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<v Speaker 1>Australia are set to deepen their defense ties.

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<v Speaker 4>On the defense side, we're working on force posture. We're

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<v Speaker 4>working on defense industrial cooperation first on forced posture initiatives.

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<v Speaker 4>We're upgrading infrastructure on air bases in Queensland and the

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<v Speaker 4>Northern Territory that allows for additional US bomber rotations.

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<v Speaker 3>We already have a significant US presence on Australian territory

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<v Speaker 3>and now they're talking about bringing in more basing ospreys

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<v Speaker 3>here so that the Marines could rapidly deploy on an

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<v Speaker 3>offensive operation.

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<v Speaker 4>Upgrading logistics and infrastructure in Darwin. Some more US Marines

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<v Speaker 4>can do rotational deployments and prepositioning MB twenty two ospreys.

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<v Speaker 4>This establishes new and resilient logistics networks across Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>We've even had the US Air Force mounting attacks from

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<v Speaker 3>Australian soil to foreign soil when they conducted that raid

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<v Speaker 3>on the Houthi militants in Yemen, and they based out

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<v Speaker 3>of Amberley.

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<v Speaker 5>Airbase, America, and the United Kingdom joining forces with Australia

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<v Speaker 5>in tow to bomb Yemen. The Allies are targeting an

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<v Speaker 5>Iran backed militant group which has been launching attacks on

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<v Speaker 5>international ships. Just minutes ago. The Houthis responded saying the

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<v Speaker 5>US and UK would pay a heavy price for the

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<v Speaker 5>blatant aggression.

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<v Speaker 3>Now I find this all very concerning because bit by bit,

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<v Speaker 3>our government is allowing the United States to go to

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<v Speaker 3>war from Australian soil as if it's not of any

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<v Speaker 3>importance to.

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<v Speaker 1>US and Albert Earlier this year, the Pentagon ordered a

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<v Speaker 1>review of AUCUS. That review was delayed It still hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>been publicly released, but some lawmakers in Australia and the

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<v Speaker 1>US have actually seen it. Now, So what do we

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<v Speaker 1>know about that review and what it says.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we know very little because the government has not

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<v Speaker 3>released it and there's no indications that the Minister of

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<v Speaker 3>Defense will release it. But what he has said is

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<v Speaker 3>that everything's great, it's all wonderful. We're powering ahead. Whatever

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<v Speaker 3>UCUS is meant to deliver, it's going to deliver it.

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<v Speaker 3>And whatever is going to cost, well, we don't know,

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<v Speaker 3>but it'll be paid for and everything's going to work

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<v Speaker 3>out swimmingly well. And the United States is standing by

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<v Speaker 3>us steadfastly as our most important ally.

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<v Speaker 5>It really was a very constructive, warm, frank meeting between

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<v Speaker 5>the four of US which took the alliance forward another year.

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<v Speaker 3>Now they're continuing to believe that we're going to get

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<v Speaker 3>these submarines. But as the US Navy's Chief of Naval

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<v Speaker 3>Operations has already pointed out, the US build rate has

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<v Speaker 3>not budged. They are not building enough submarines for their

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<v Speaker 3>own needs. They're not maintaining enough submarines for their own needs.

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<v Speaker 3>It has not shifted in the slightest. That's not been

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<v Speaker 3>the slightest improvement in four years. And essentially they have

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<v Speaker 3>to double the build rate in order for Australia to

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<v Speaker 3>get its submarines. There's just no way it's going to double.

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<v Speaker 3>That's just an impossibility. And we're now scheduled, according to

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<v Speaker 3>the Osman Dialogue, as scheduled to give them another billion

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<v Speaker 3>dollars next year to put towards the US submarine industry.

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<v Speaker 3>That frankly is a drop in the bucket, although where

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<v Speaker 3>our money is going is not ever explained. So the

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<v Speaker 3>US cannot build enough submarines, and if they can't build

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<v Speaker 3>enough submarines it would be madness on their part to

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<v Speaker 3>give us a few.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up is Australia tagging along into nuclear war with China,

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<v Speaker 1>so albert At the same time as all of this

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<v Speaker 1>has been happening, the Albanese government here in Australia has

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<v Speaker 1>announced its own review mechanism. It's the Orcus Committee. So

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<v Speaker 1>what is that in practice?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the Albanese government, along with the opposition leader Susan Lee,

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<v Speaker 3>have decided to establish an Orcus Review Committee with within

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<v Speaker 3>parliament and it'll consist of up to seven parliamentarians and

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<v Speaker 3>up to six outsiders. So we can fairly expect that

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<v Speaker 3>anyone who gets this job will be fully committed to

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<v Speaker 3>the Orcus agenda. So this is not so much as

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<v Speaker 3>a review committee as a rubber stamp committee. And it's

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<v Speaker 3>also largely going to be held in secret, so the

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<v Speaker 3>Australian public will never really find out what they're talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>And how concerned are you by that concept.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm an Australian citizen and I like to think

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<v Speaker 3>that I have a right to know what the government

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<v Speaker 3>is doing, and I like to think that in a

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<v Speaker 3>strong viper democracy, the government can actually trust the people. Now, yes,

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<v Speaker 3>there are certain things that will need to be kept secret,

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<v Speaker 3>such as how many missiles will carry and what's its

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<v Speaker 3>range and the exact parameters of its sensors and communications

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<v Speaker 3>devices absolutely require secrecy, but most of it is in secret,

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<v Speaker 3>and most of it is things that we as Australian

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<v Speaker 3>citizens have a right to know, such as who's going

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<v Speaker 3>to control these submarines. Is it going to be controlled

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<v Speaker 3>by the United States or by Australia. And if Australia

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<v Speaker 3>decides to do something that the United States doesn't approve of,

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<v Speaker 3>will the submarines still function or will there be a

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<v Speaker 3>kill switch that will prevent them from doing stuff unless

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<v Speaker 3>the United States agrees. Now, I think that's fairly important

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<v Speaker 3>and that should be confirmed to the Australian public. And

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<v Speaker 3>the same way, are we planning to operate with these

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<v Speaker 3>submarines in the East China Sea or in the Straits

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<v Speaker 3>of Taiwan in the face of potential Chinese opposition? Again,

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<v Speaker 3>fairly important thing to know. And I have very little

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<v Speaker 3>expectations that the government will tell us what their broader

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<v Speaker 3>strategic planning is in the use of these platforms.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what do you think is behind that? Then

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<v Speaker 1>behind this amount of secrecy around orcus? Is this about

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<v Speaker 1>national security or do you see something else underpinning it?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's an element of national security here which is legitimate,

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<v Speaker 3>but that is I fear that could be minor element here.

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<v Speaker 3>The larger element is that the government doesn't want to

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<v Speaker 3>trust the Australian public with this knowledge because if they did,

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<v Speaker 3>it's likely to be politicized by the opposition, or by

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<v Speaker 3>the Greens, or by just ordinary people like myself who

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<v Speaker 3>will look at what the government is saying and point

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<v Speaker 3>out where there are failures in logic or failures in

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<v Speaker 3>strategic thinking or risks that they're posing to the country

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<v Speaker 3>without telling the Australian public. So you know, the government

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<v Speaker 3>wants to control the narrative, and the best way to

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<v Speaker 3>control the narrative is to not let anybody in on

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<v Speaker 3>what the narrative is. Politicians may, perhaps rightly or correctly,

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<v Speaker 3>can be concerned about political risks, you know, to their

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<v Speaker 3>own futures and their own ability to win elections, But

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<v Speaker 3>I'm more interested in the national security risk. And we're

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<v Speaker 3>heading down a pathway that can only lead to confrontation

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<v Speaker 3>with China. And that's the full steam ahead. And if

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<v Speaker 3>you look at the national Security strategy that the US

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<v Speaker 3>government published just a couple of days ago, it is

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<v Speaker 3>heading towards a confrontation with China, and Australia is tagging

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<v Speaker 3>along as a good little buddy, you know, doing our

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<v Speaker 3>best to help our long established friend in a war

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<v Speaker 3>with China. That is a risk of enormous magnitude because

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<v Speaker 3>great powers cannot go to war, but our government seems

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<v Speaker 3>to discount that as an outcome. And the worst part

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<v Speaker 3>of all is that both the United States and China

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<v Speaker 3>are nuclear armed, and nuclear armed powers cannot go to

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<v Speaker 3>war because if they do, everyone dies. And I'm saying

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<v Speaker 3>that quite directly because that is the outcome of a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear war between great powers.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, if Orcus is this risky bet on an

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly chaotic partner in the US, what is the alternative?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there are alternatives. And one of the many areas

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<v Speaker 3>of concern regarding the United States over the last let's say,

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<v Speaker 3>since the end of the Cold War, is that when

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<v Speaker 3>there's a problem, governments have numerous levers in which they

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<v Speaker 3>can solve the problem or try to solve the problem.

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<v Speaker 3>But the US has consistently over the last forty five

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<v Speaker 3>years pulled the military lever. If they've got a problem

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<v Speaker 3>in the world, their default response is to smash it. Diplomacy, talking,

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<v Speaker 3>negotiating are no longer considered first rank levers of governments

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<v Speaker 3>and power. So what you should be doing with China

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<v Speaker 3>is a lot of talking, and that's what Australia should

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<v Speaker 3>be doing. There are international problems to which there is

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<v Speaker 3>no military solution, and this is one of them. The

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<v Speaker 3>US Chinese contest does not have a military solution because

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<v Speaker 3>the military solution is enormously painful. So if there's no

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<v Speaker 3>military solution, find a different government, lever and start working

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<v Speaker 3>that one. But unfortunately that's not what happened. They're doubling

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<v Speaker 3>down on the military one, and the Albanese government in

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<v Speaker 3>the Australian Military, the Australian Defense Force are just happily

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<v Speaker 3>tagging along for the ride, and this could only end

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<v Speaker 3>in a very bad place.

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<v Speaker 1>Albert, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a pleasure to speak to you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, interest rates have been left on

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<v Speaker 1>hold at three point six percent. The Reserve Bank's decision

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<v Speaker 1>comes after a recent spike in inflation from three point

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<v Speaker 1>six percent in September to three point eight percent in October.

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<v Speaker 1>In a statement, the RBA Board said that the board's

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<v Speaker 1>judgment is that some of the recent increase in underlying

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<v Speaker 1>inflation was due to temporary factors, but that uncertainty remains.

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<v Speaker 1>And political heavyweights including former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, Cabinet

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<v Speaker 1>Minister Tony Burke, and former Queensland Premier and Estata Paliche

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<v Speaker 1>were among the guests at the state funeral of former

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<v Speaker 1>labor powerbroker Graham richardson yesterday. Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi gave

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<v Speaker 1>the eulogy, describing Richardson as colorful and as much as

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<v Speaker 1>a part of Sydney as the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Richardson

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<v Speaker 1>has been mired in controversy throughout his life, with allegations

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<v Speaker 1>ranging from sex scandals to corruption. He was never charged

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<v Speaker 1>or convicted and always denied the allegations. I'm Ruby Jones.

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<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. Thanks for listening.