Speaker 1: From the Skying New Center. This is Paul Murray Live.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Sherry Gooday, Good evening. You will find out
Speaker 1: in the next couple of minutes who the one hundred
Speaker 1: undecided voters in the Sky News People's Forum in Queensland
Speaker 1: thought and who they are going to vote for going
Speaker 1: into the election, which, of course voting is on now
Speaker 1: more than about half of the state. We believe we'll
Speaker 1: end up voting early before the election. It all happens
Speaker 1: on Saturday now. Tomorrow night, we're going to be in
Speaker 1: Brucebane for a special pub test featuring Peter Dutton, where
Speaker 1: people will be able to ask whatever questions they want.
Speaker 1: It'll be viewers of this program, but we'll also obviously
Speaker 1: talk in great detail about what is about to happen
Speaker 1: in and around this Queensland election tonight on the show.
Speaker 1: No Sooks, no Lefties, and we'll also get to the
Speaker 1: wonderful Meghan Kelly in a moment or two time. But
Speaker 1: first let's look back on that People's Forum, because I
Speaker 1: think there's nothing like it in Australian politics. We've been
Speaker 1: doing these things here at Sky Newstance. I think it
Speaker 1: was what way back in the you know, the two
Speaker 1: thousand and seven election, certainly the twenty ten and every
Speaker 1: state election since. And I want to congratulate all of
Speaker 1: the people who put this together because we do it
Speaker 1: for the Northern Territory election, the Tazi election, we do
Speaker 1: it everywhere. Right. We are a truly national station, which
Speaker 1: is why we are focused on this state election. And
Speaker 1: you know how focused I am on what is about
Speaker 1: to happen in Queensland fingers crossed a change of government.
Speaker 1: Here were some of the questions. If you happen to
Speaker 1: miss it, what.
Speaker 2: Do you both plan to do to tackle the rising
Speaker 2: antisemitism and hate? Please tell them when I get a
Speaker 2: play of the Olympics.
Speaker 1: And where are we at with all the infrastructure?
Speaker 2: What's your plans to make more affordable childcare?
Speaker 3: Just tell me we're not going to run out of money,
Speaker 3: because you'd tell us everything.
Speaker 1: They want to be Now, I thought all of the
Speaker 1: questions everything hit the usuals. But there was one question
Speaker 1: in particular which wasn't just a question, but I thought
Speaker 1: it was a really good idea and it was in
Speaker 1: relation to domestic violence. Now, obviously there is a situation
Speaker 1: where women end up leaving the home because they want
Speaker 1: to get away from what potentially in the three is. Yes,
Speaker 1: men who are involved in the same scenarios, well, if
Speaker 1: the aggressor is female. But the question from this lady
Speaker 1: I thought was interesting because you've got to see the
Speaker 1: two leaders respond in real time to an idea that
Speaker 1: has not been front and center in the Queensland election.
Speaker 1: But once you hear it kind of makes sense, at
Speaker 1: least to me.
Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you about this evening is if
Speaker 2: either of you have got any plans to change the
Speaker 2: DV laws about women having to leave their homes when
Speaker 2: there's a situation. I think men need to have more
Speaker 2: accountability and they need to be removed from the home
Speaker 2: instead of the woman going into crisis accommodation with small children.
Speaker 1: Great, great question. Now, of course both of them logs
Speaker 1: important and you will see what happens. But it seems
Speaker 1: to make sense, right Why not create a scenario where
Speaker 1: the person who is accused of committing the offense is
Speaker 1: the one who has to go and find emergency accommodation
Speaker 1: as opposed to the person who is the apparent victim.
Speaker 1: I like that particular moment. Now we've got to deal
Speaker 1: with the giant's scare of this election and at times
Speaker 1: a distraction that much of the left wing meeting has
Speaker 1: been obsessed with talking about, because as I have told
Speaker 1: you for as long as I've been watching Queensland politics,
Speaker 1: and you know how much I love Queensland, Labor is
Speaker 1: very good at elections. Now they don't have a record
Speaker 1: to run on, so much so that Anastatia Palachet was
Speaker 1: pushed out the door for Stephen Miles. The Labor Party
Speaker 1: has been in an election losing position for a couple
Speaker 1: of years now because life under a Labor government well,
Speaker 1: Queenslanders have run out of patience for it. So their
Speaker 1: scare is to pretend that because yes, there are a
Speaker 1: couple of Conservative MPs that may well get elected as
Speaker 1: part of a new government, and the Catter Australia Party
Speaker 1: who is promising to bring a vote towards Parliament, towards
Speaker 1: a parliament in and around the decriminalization of late term abortions,
Speaker 1: the abortion issue has been one that has been wearing
Speaker 1: its ugly head. I say ugly head because it's not
Speaker 1: something that normally we would expect at a state election.
Speaker 1: David Cristo Full has been very clear from day one
Speaker 1: that there will be no change. The majority of the
Speaker 1: Parliament whenever it votes, if ever it votes, well clearly
Speaker 1: will affirm the previous decisions. But that doesn't mean Stephen
Speaker 1: Miles isn't using everything you can to try to push
Speaker 1: this distraction, a distraction which is the lead story in
Speaker 1: left we news sites as they try to make it
Speaker 1: about this issue, not the failures on hospitals, on youth crime,
Speaker 1: education and everything else of the past four years.
Speaker 4: There will be no changes to abortion law and I
Speaker 4: want Queenslanders to hear that directly from me.
Speaker 3: Can anyone tell from David's answer just then what he
Speaker 3: thinks about this issue? I mean this is this is
Speaker 3: a really important issue.
Speaker 1: I think it shouldn't change.
Speaker 4: Everyone knows I think it shouldn't change.
Speaker 1: The laws will remain the same. Where you have a
Speaker 1: conscience spoke, the laws will remain the view. There will
Speaker 1: be no change.
Speaker 4: So the scare campaign will continue, but you need to.
Speaker 1: Help direct a well, let me answer the question.
Speaker 4: The scare campaign will continue, but it's not happening. Give
Speaker 4: a straight answer. Okay, there will be no change, none
Speaker 4: at all.
Speaker 3: Are your protests or not?
Speaker 4: There will be no change. The legislation is there and
Speaker 4: women will have access to that legislation that gives women
Speaker 4: the right to choose.
Speaker 1: And just in case if it needs to be made
Speaker 1: any clearer, here is the yes no answer to the
Speaker 1: yes no question.
Speaker 3: So if there was a conscience vote, you'd vote against it.
Speaker 4: Karen, there will be no change, and my team has
Speaker 4: svo for it or against.
Speaker 1: Well, let me let me answer that.
Speaker 4: So the premier is talking about the vehicle to get there,
Speaker 4: I'm telling.
Speaker 1: You the result.
Speaker 4: There will be no change to those laws, and that's
Speaker 4: what people need to know.
Speaker 1: There will be no change.
Speaker 4: And my see, my team has backed that in all right.
Speaker 1: So it's clear, yes, that there will be a back
Speaker 1: when backing when it comes to a woman's right to choose. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Labor will keep pushing regardless of what the facts are,
Speaker 1: for the next few days because it's the only issue
Speaker 1: that you're going to get wide and media support on.
Speaker 1: So one hundred undecided voters, they had an opportunity to
Speaker 1: well decide if they have decided and whom they will
Speaker 1: be voting for on Saturday, the Great Care in Gilbert.
Speaker 1: You can give them a million different titles. Let's just
Speaker 1: say KG it joins us now, sun Corpse stadium where
Speaker 1: his dream would be to one day get on a
Speaker 1: jersey in a pair of shorts and run out onto
Speaker 1: that field. But till then he will toil behind the
Speaker 1: cameras here at Sky News. Great man, do we have
Speaker 1: a result?
Speaker 3: We do. No danker rub needed today, though for this
Speaker 3: performance it was it close one. Paul. I've got to
Speaker 3: tell you, I think Christop fully will be pleased with
Speaker 3: these numbers. So even though Miles has won thirty nine
Speaker 3: percent of the room, Christoph Fooley thirty five percent, thirty
Speaker 3: nine to thirty five, twenty six percent undecided. Still after
Speaker 3: this hour, they're going to have to still think about
Speaker 3: their vote over the next few days. But given Labor,
Speaker 3: this is a stronghold for labor, Paul, Brisbane. We are
Speaker 3: at sun Corpus. You said thirty three of the forty
Speaker 3: two seats in Brisbane are held by labor. So the
Speaker 3: fact that christp Fooley gets thirty five percent of support here,
Speaker 3: I think you'd see that in itself as a victory tonight, Paul,
Speaker 3: so a close one on paper, Miles wins, but you'd
Speaker 3: say there's a lot of positivity to take out for
Speaker 3: the lamp leader.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean You've hosted these things in every state,
Speaker 1: the territories, and at the federal level. When you see
Speaker 1: a quarter of the room still undecided yet again, or
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of opinion polls have told us that
Speaker 1: it's all hitting in one way. I'm going to get
Speaker 1: into some details a little bit later that we all
Speaker 1: know where I want it to go. But I think
Speaker 1: this thing is actually going to be closer than some
Speaker 1: people think. How regular is it that a quarter of
Speaker 1: the room walks out undecided? Well, you know you.
Speaker 3: Talk about this as well, that third party element, the
Speaker 3: independence and the minor parties, that is a big part
Speaker 3: of our political equation now. And I know what you regularly,
Speaker 3: as I enjoy doing it, you do talk about it
Speaker 3: a lot with One Nation or whatever it else. So
Speaker 3: I think that might be a component of what we're
Speaker 3: seeing tonight, Paul, with that twenty six percent. But I've
Speaker 3: got I personally think you know the other thing is
Speaker 3: when you see them and you know this, having spoken
Speaker 3: to the leaders over the months and years, you know
Speaker 3: who's feeling good heading into Saturday and tonight, Miles, you
Speaker 3: know he's having a crack. But I've got to say
Speaker 3: the sense I got was that Christoph Foley is feeling
Speaker 3: like the you know for one of a better phrase,
Speaker 3: that the wind is in his sale heading into Saturday.
Speaker 3: I think he's going to get there. You're right, things
Speaker 3: are tightening a bit, but Christopher Fooley will be the
Speaker 3: premiere come Sunday.
Speaker 1: Well, funny again the relationship between the overall somebody other
Speaker 1: than the major parties. Have a look at this today.
Speaker 1: The Resolve poll came out via the Brisbane Times website.
Speaker 1: Once you put the Greens at eleven, one Nation at
Speaker 1: nine and the collection of others, guess what twenty seven percent?
Speaker 1: Twenty seven percent is the not label or liberal vote
Speaker 1: in this room again about the same number. So again,
Speaker 1: people who might be going in undecided, you know, maybe
Speaker 1: they don't want brand red, brand blue, so they're going
Speaker 1: to try to find somewhere else and a really important issue, right,
Speaker 1: and this is this is why third party is an issue.
Speaker 1: Is one I'm so obsed. Right, it's all well and
Speaker 1: good for a quarter of people to vote something other
Speaker 1: than the two major parties, right, it's what they do
Speaker 1: with their preferences. Now, if people follow how to vote cards,
Speaker 1: we know that when the conservative parties basically anti the
Speaker 1: city government. It's going to help the LNP to help
Speaker 1: change the government. The Greens are going to not play
Speaker 1: well in the bush, but they're going to play pretty
Speaker 1: well in the southeast. And as we've noticed about Queensland,
Speaker 1: bloody big place, but an awful lot of seats in
Speaker 1: that southeast. So that's really fascinating to me that basically,
Speaker 1: you know, one organization using it started to go one way.
Speaker 1: Our room, we've come to the same conclusion. And if
Speaker 1: you've got a quarter of the vote, who they put second?
Speaker 1: Because the Labour Party under Palachet made this a compulsory,
Speaker 1: compulsory preferences election, that's going to really open the door
Speaker 1: where I think LNP in some seats. In fact, I'll
Speaker 1: get into the detail in a second, they will be
Speaker 1: praying for the preferences of the Conservatives and the showing
Speaker 1: of the Greens. That's what Labour ne needs to have
Speaker 1: a hope of minority.
Speaker 3: Yeah, indeed, And the other one of those things that
Speaker 3: jumped out of me tonight wonderful questions, I thought, Paul
Speaker 3: from the audience, but the one from the young Jewish
Speaker 3: woman who said, what will you do to combat NDI Semitism?
Speaker 3: And this is an issue I think which is relevant
Speaker 3: to what you're talking about when it comes to the Greens.
Speaker 3: I just wonder how some of those leafy suburbs, say
Speaker 3: smaller Liberals would be feeling about some of the behavior
Speaker 3: coming out of that particular minor party in recent months.
Speaker 3: We'll see on Saturday how it transpires, whether they do
Speaker 3: get the number of seats that they're talking about, but
Speaker 3: some of the language, some of the message from Green's elements,
Speaker 3: whether it be particularly in New South Wales, we know
Speaker 3: of a few in the Federal Parliament as well. There's
Speaker 3: been elements of Eddie Semitism, and I just wonder how
Speaker 3: people in the leafy suburbs of Brisbane react to that
Speaker 3: when otherwise they might be leaning towards a vote for
Speaker 3: the minor party.
Speaker 1: My oath congrats on tonight. We look forward to seeing
Speaker 1: on Saturday five pm, because I remember the time zones
Speaker 1: are all different. Five pm is when you can see
Speaker 1: things in the East as they start to roll out
Speaker 1: in Queensland. Keep the earpcing because I've got a little
Speaker 1: bit of data for you that I think might turn
Speaker 1: up in the coverage. I look forward to being a
Speaker 1: part of it. On Saturday night, mate, I'll be wearing
Speaker 1: shorts business up top, shorts down the bottom, I guarantee.
Speaker 1: Thank you KG. That's by the way most of the shows.
Speaker 1: Thank you mate, Thank you KG. We love that man.
Speaker 1: Now I want to start to talk about something here
Speaker 1: because again my belief need to change the government. Right.
Speaker 1: My belief was that four years ago. Of course COVID
Speaker 1: ended up meaning that the Labor Party held on to
Speaker 1: a majority. No, I a massive one, but they ended
Speaker 1: up with a majority. Now, Queensland as a political map
Speaker 1: is three different places. The southeast where there's an awful
Speaker 1: lot of seats. Why because that's where the population is. Okay,
Speaker 1: if your definition is the Sunshine Coast down to Cool
Speaker 1: and Gatter, that's pretty much like three quarters of the
Speaker 1: seats in Queensland. If you just want to talk about
Speaker 1: Brucebe and split out the Sunny Coast and the Gold Coast,
Speaker 1: both of those can be a little bit more conservative
Speaker 1: traditionally ending up going blue. And then of course there's
Speaker 1: the regional parts where population centers. The two biggest would
Speaker 1: be Cans that's got a couple of MPs, but Townsville
Speaker 1: has got a couple of seats in and around that zone,
Speaker 1: throwing places like Keppel. There's many elections within an election,
Speaker 1: which means I want to show you the preferred premier
Speaker 1: number that has come out of the Resolve poll today.
Speaker 1: Now it shows that the preserve that the preferred premier
Speaker 1: according to the polls during the election campaign has gone
Speaker 1: from a wide margin against Miles to now it being
Speaker 1: kinder or very close to fifty to fifty. Why is
Speaker 1: that happening? Because study this graphic seven Miles as preferred premier.
Speaker 1: His strength comes from metropolitan areas. Now metropolitan areas, I
Speaker 1: don't know the exact definition here, whether we're just talking
Speaker 1: about Brisbane or whether we're talking about Risbane, Gold Coast, Townsville,
Speaker 1: cans Okay. I sort of built up the built up
Speaker 1: bits of Queensland, but you can see the second you
Speaker 1: get into regional areas, huge drop off. What the best
Speaker 1: part of ten points and a three point rise in
Speaker 1: the number for David Crucifuley. But again interesting to look
Speaker 1: here a week to go, twenty one percent of people
Speaker 1: in metropolitan Queensland won't say which way who the preferred
Speaker 1: premier is. Now again this poll shows twenty seven percent
Speaker 1: of the primary vote sits somewhere other than the LNP
Speaker 1: or the Labor Party. When it comes to again those
Speaker 1: regional areas, that numbers even higher at twenty eight percent.
Speaker 1: That's because catter Australia and one Nation do better in
Speaker 1: regional areas, which is why the overall picture of the
Speaker 1: state is crucifully thirty nine miles thirty seven to twenty
Speaker 1: five still to decide. Which brings me to this and
Speaker 1: I do not want to say this because you know
Speaker 1: what result I want. I think this thing is going
Speaker 1: to be closer than people think because the task for
Speaker 1: the LMP is they have to win twelve seats to
Speaker 1: win a majority government. Now, let's show you where those
Speaker 1: twelve seats are, because the closer they are to Brisbane,
Speaker 1: they are harder for the LNP to win. Now, according
Speaker 1: to this the Labor Party has nine seats across the
Speaker 1: state that are under a margin of five percent. Keep
Speaker 1: that up because I'll basically talk around those numbers as well.
Speaker 1: Labour has four seats between five and six percent, six
Speaker 1: seats between six and eight percent. Where are those seats, Well,
Speaker 1: ten of them are in regional Queensland. They need twelve
Speaker 1: to become the government Okay, let's imagine they win them all,
Speaker 1: they're still too short of a majority government. Two are
Speaker 1: on the Sunshine Coast. Now the Sunshine Coast flipped in
Speaker 1: part because of COVID. The assumption is that those would
Speaker 1: go back to the LNP. But a Teal mayor was
Speaker 1: elected on the Sunshine Coast, will they get the two
Speaker 1: from there? Okay, very close to sorry, the southeast generally,
Speaker 1: where again we're going to take everything from a little
Speaker 1: further down from the Sunshine Coast, a little further out
Speaker 1: from Brisbane, and a little further under towards the Gold Coast.
Speaker 1: That's four seats. Again, if they win one on the
Speaker 1: Sunshine Coast, one on the Southeast, then they're going to
Speaker 1: get the twelve. Right, they're going to get a majority government.
Speaker 1: But to go beyond the majority number, if three are
Speaker 1: still in Brisbane, four are in the Southeast, and according
Speaker 1: to this pole, the preferred premiere in those areas is miles,
Speaker 1: then maybe the best they can hope for is twelve, thirteen,
Speaker 1: fifteen seats as opposed to a giant change, because there's
Speaker 1: so many that they have to win frankly between now
Speaker 1: and then, so I don't want to panic anyone, But
Speaker 1: I also don't want to play fool's goal. Should there
Speaker 1: be a change of government, Yes, is Stephen Miles the
Speaker 1: bloke who should be the remaining Premier of Queensland. No,
Speaker 1: should Shannon Fentaman continue to look over a health system
Speaker 1: that is the shambles that it is the first question
Speaker 1: in the People's Forum tonight was about a woman who
Speaker 1: had family members that were being misdiagnosed or being told
Speaker 1: that I look, you've just got an in large bladder
Speaker 1: because you're old. Reality, it was cancer in regional areas.
Speaker 1: As I've told you before, there are rolled gold examples
Speaker 1: of people in Queensland who when you call an ambulance
Speaker 1: in regional Queensland, one paramedic who's driving the ambulance turns
Speaker 1: up And if you want the ambulance to be able
Speaker 1: to go to the hospital, they need a member of
Speaker 1: the public to be able to drive that ambulance. When
Speaker 1: it comes to the overall health system in and around Ramping,
Speaker 1: it has got worse, not better. In fact, right now
Speaker 1: the worst numbers Queensland has ever had youth crime. That
Speaker 1: question should answer itself. But again that youth crime issue
Speaker 1: is particularly strong in regional areas, and yes, there are
Speaker 1: enough seats to slowly but surely get them to wards majority.
Speaker 1: I want to start to set some expectations. Winning twelve
Speaker 1: seats is a hercule an effort because there are so
Speaker 1: many bands of the percentages that you need. You can
Speaker 1: get ten of them in the areas where the LNP
Speaker 1: is polling very well, but you also need the preferences
Speaker 1: the number two for the Catter Australia voters or the
Speaker 1: number two from the One Nation people. We'll talk to
Speaker 1: James Ashby about that. Of course, he's a candidate in
Speaker 1: the seat of Keppel, so watch this space. While it
Speaker 1: has been a dishonest campaign full of lies, the closer
Speaker 1: you get to Brisbane, the harder it is for the
Speaker 1: LMP to start flipping seats. Thankfully there are enough outside
Speaker 1: of Brisbane. But the reason it may not be over
Speaker 1: as soon as the polls are closed is because of
Speaker 1: the three different Queenslands that will be voting on Saturday night.
Speaker 1: You'll see the coverage here on Sky News. Anasaja Palachet,
Speaker 1: who I Know you love, and Campbell Newman, who I
Speaker 1: Know you really love, will be here on Saturday night.
Speaker 1: You'll see it all starting at five o'clock Eastern, given
Speaker 1: them time differences and all the rest of it, you
Speaker 1: will start to see the results coming through and I
Speaker 1: look forward to being part of the coverage. Laura Jayson.
Speaker 1: I will be there side by side as always, trying
Speaker 1: to add to the coverage that of course includes the
Speaker 1: wonderful Peter Kredlin. So big night ahead on Saturday Night, Queensland.
Speaker 1: You know how much I love you and I look
Speaker 1: forward to being there for the next few days. Now
Speaker 1: tomorrow night as well. Don't forget that pub test, Peter
Speaker 1: Dutton joining us as the alternative Prime Minister to take
Speaker 1: questions from the public. If you've got some questions, you
Speaker 1: can send them. You might not get to ask them yourself,
Speaker 1: but we might ask them on your behalf pub test.
Speaker 1: It's gonews dot com dot au. So I'm not going
Speaker 1: to spend too much time on Lydia Thorpe because we
Speaker 1: did the right thing last night and talk about that
Speaker 1: as the embarrassment that it was. But I do want
Speaker 1: to mention two things you saw today two indigenous leaders.
Speaker 1: You saw Lydia Thorpe taking a victory lab for the
Speaker 1: way that she behaved in Canberra yesterday. A behavior that
Speaker 1: has been admonished by indigenous leaders, including indigenous leaders of
Speaker 1: the left today who were very much pro voice. So
Speaker 1: we know where Lydia Thorpe is and it's right out
Speaker 1: on the edges. Lydia Thorpe of course has said that
Speaker 1: she's not planning to be re elected, so she's just
Speaker 1: there to be a protest for the next four years.
Speaker 1: But how did Australia actually respond Because my central frustration
Speaker 1: with what she did yesterday was that this made massive
Speaker 1: international news and I don't want people in the UK
Speaker 1: to think that she represents anyone but herself largely and
Speaker 1: a very small number of people who want an antagonistic
Speaker 1: relationship when it comes to these issues. So guess what
Speaker 1: thousands of people decided to turn up today for their
Speaker 1: royal highnesses when they were in and around Sydney Harbor.
Speaker 1: Was it four hundred thousand people know, but it was
Speaker 1: a significant number of people and way more than Lydia
Speaker 1: Thorpe had support in that room. Remember the silence after
Speaker 1: she carried on the way she carried on. Here's some
Speaker 1: of the people who turned up in the sunshine to day.
Speaker 1: Well done Sydney for turning on the weather about time
Speaker 1: of got Boody warmed too.
Speaker 2: I would say welcome to Australia and that I come
Speaker 2: from Cornwall and I know nan Sladen as a township
Speaker 2: which he was the architect for.
Speaker 5: Oh fantastic. I can't wait to see them, can't. I
Speaker 5: just here to support want to be here.
Speaker 3: I'm so excited.
Speaker 1: Just keep going, you love for I love it. Happy people, sunshine.
Speaker 1: Why not have a little bit of the good news
Speaker 1: story as opposed to the nonsense. But then, of course
Speaker 1: you have another example of indigenous leadership, and it is
Speaker 1: one that is absolutely about walking arm in arm with people,
Speaker 1: regardless of what their family's histories are, towards a bright
Speaker 1: and clear future. And that's of course to Enter Price.
Speaker 1: As she was at the ARC conference that was taking
Speaker 1: place in Sydney today. This is the meeting of smart
Speaker 1: conservatives like herself that took place in the UK last year,
Speaker 1: it's happening in Sydney as we speak. And this is
Speaker 1: what she had to say today. And I'll tell you
Speaker 1: what I get in behind her worldview. And I think
Speaker 1: the extreme majority of Australians do as opposed to Lydia Thorpe,
Speaker 1: who was the one making headlines.
Speaker 6: It's important to understand about who we are as a
Speaker 6: country from our history, and not for the purpose of
Speaker 6: weaponizing that history against anybody, but just to have a
Speaker 6: better understand of who we are.
Speaker 1: So a quick little message to all of those royal
Speaker 1: reporters who know doubt I'll be watching us in the
Speaker 1: hotel rooms getting ready for another day. Make sure that
Speaker 1: when you talk about this issue in this week, you
Speaker 1: find time to play grabs a disenterprice Centerprice is where
Speaker 1: sixty percent of Australians were when it came to the voice.
Speaker 1: Just Enterprise is the person who would be a major
Speaker 1: reason why Australia would want to change the government because
Speaker 1: we want that woman towards the front of Australian leadership
Speaker 1: and certainly in charge of the Indigenous Afairs portfolio. I
Speaker 1: want her in a cabinet. Her potential is again to
Speaker 1: go as far as her career will let her go,
Speaker 1: and that is in this country, all the way to
Speaker 1: leadership and potentially the Prime minister ship. I think she's
Speaker 1: that good.
Speaker 7: Another example, so when the going gets tough, we band
Speaker 7: together and we do have an Australian spirit and I
Speaker 7: think in more recent times that spirit has been diminished
Speaker 7: because of the politics of radical leftists who want to
Speaker 7: categorize us and label us all and clamp us all
Speaker 7: together in particular groups.
Speaker 1: Now spoking of the type of leadership that we're not
Speaker 1: all that excited about the Prime minister. Another pole pops
Speaker 1: up today. It tells a grim story about where the
Speaker 1: Prime Minister is and where labor is months out from
Speaker 1: an election. Surprise surprise buying a four point three million
Speaker 1: dollar holiday house because your missus is are coast. Does
Speaker 1: it really go down well with people? This pole, by
Speaker 1: the way, did not come from a far right wing
Speaker 1: thin tank. It comes from the turbul Times. The essential
Speaker 1: poll published in the Guardian. Here is the primary vote.
Speaker 1: This is the primary vote of the parties compared to
Speaker 1: twelve months ago. The LNP is up three to thirty
Speaker 1: five Labours down five to twenty eight percent. That is shocking.
Speaker 1: They will lose plenty of seats to the Greens, not
Speaker 1: just the LNP or the Liberal National Party depending on
Speaker 1: where you are in the country. The Greens not surging again.
Speaker 1: I thought that their issues when it came to renting
Speaker 1: would be helping, but their overall vote is down. Why
Speaker 1: because as Kieran Gilbert had said before they have associated
Speaker 1: themselves with some pretty ugly stuff. The Independence are up
Speaker 1: by two percent. One Nation is up one percent, seven percent,
Speaker 1: UAP is at two percent. We don't know what factor
Speaker 1: they will be at the next election, but that's certainly
Speaker 1: two percent that will be floating around. That matches when
Speaker 1: it comes to preferences. And six percent of people remain undecided.
Speaker 1: Oh and you know how the Liberal Party apparently has
Speaker 1: a problem with women, Well, guess with this poll shows
Speaker 1: the Labor Party does, because according to men, the primary
Speaker 1: vote for the Liberal Party thirty seven percent, Labor Party
Speaker 1: thirty one. Guess which has a lower number just twenty
Speaker 1: six percent of women. A quarter of women in Australia
Speaker 1: say that their first preference vote will be for Albow
Speaker 1: and his mates. That is a damning figure. So they
Speaker 1: can carry on as much as they want about how
Speaker 1: big a problem Peter Dutton is and the Liberal Party's
Speaker 1: problem with women the Labor Party. Just a quarter of
Speaker 1: all women surveyed by the Guardian say that they are
Speaker 1: willing to vote for the Labor Party should an election
Speaker 1: be held anytime soon. By the way, in terms of
Speaker 1: the leadership, again, four point three million dollars because you
Speaker 1: know Jerdie's accosty Judie Sacosti. The Prime Minister is sitting
Speaker 1: in a place where forty eight percent of people disapprove
Speaker 1: with his prime ministership. That is up five points in
Speaker 1: a year. The approvals down and they don't know number
Speaker 1: is down. So literally don't know when to disapprove, approve,
Speaker 1: when to disapprove. There's only one thing that's growing and
Speaker 1: that is the disapproval with the Prime Minister. I don't know,
Speaker 1: but Peter Dutton's the problem. Peter dun't. Peter dun't. Peter dun't.
Speaker 1: Petter dunn't. He's got all the problems right, he's more unpopular. No,
Speaker 1: his approval level is up nine points in twelve months
Speaker 1: to forty five percent. His disapproval is down four points
Speaker 1: and they don't know number. This is really big. They
Speaker 1: don't know number didn't get put onto the disapproved. It
Speaker 1: walked straight from dun'now to approve in twelve months. So
Speaker 1: the Labour Party may well have a plan that they're
Speaker 1: going to go all after Peter Dutton all the time.
Speaker 1: Reality is he is not the unpopular one. The prime
Speaker 1: Minister is the unpopular one. The Liberal Party does not
Speaker 1: have its problem with women according to this poll. It
Speaker 1: is the Labor Party. But the media, which of course
Speaker 1: will follow the dirt unit that the government's going to
Speaker 1: try to set up, will try to do their best.
Speaker 1: But it seems at this point in time where their
Speaker 1: challenge of being able to hold on to a majority,
Speaker 1: in my view, is gone. We are now talking about
Speaker 1: how big that minority government is going to be. There
Speaker 1: is a breaking point on how low they can go.
Speaker 1: Maybe housing might be the issue that some people think
Speaker 1: is going to magically turn around and save the Prime minister.
Speaker 1: Certainly lefty organizations are obsessed with negative gearing and have
Speaker 1: been for the past well few years because in twenty nineteen,
Speaker 1: the Great Bill Shorten, well, he was going to make
Speaker 1: everything better when it came to negative gearing, but then
Speaker 1: Australians rejected it. Right but just the same way they've
Speaker 1: rejected his climate target. It just got lipstick on a
Speaker 1: pig and that's what they put up in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: and I hope I was going to the next election
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five they'll do something about negative gearing.
Speaker 1: Hence why the Sydney Morning Herald was the one leading
Speaker 1: the charge that secret talks were underway trying to force
Speaker 1: this into an issue. It's won. The government claims they
Speaker 1: don't want to go anywhere near it and sorry, after
Speaker 1: story after story by the Channeline newspapers follows along with
Speaker 1: what clearly is their position, which is that negative gearing
Speaker 1: needs to change. How the problem is. Somebody should tell
Speaker 1: them to check out a pole that appeared in the
Speaker 1: other news outlet that is owned by nine Sidney Morning Herald.
Speaker 1: The Freshwater Pole shows forty four percent of people support
Speaker 1: negative gearing as it currently is, thirty nine percent oppose
Speaker 1: eighteen percent are up for grabs. So yes, eighteen percent
Speaker 1: dropped on top of thirty nine gets you over fifty percent.
Speaker 1: But of course it ain't going to be that. So
Speaker 1: if it ends up being a scenario, well, let's imagine
Speaker 1: it goes fifty to fifty oh eighteen percent half of eighteen.
Speaker 1: That would be enough for the supporting of negative gearing
Speaker 1: and thus no change to still be the majority position
Speaker 1: of Australia. Funny about that, Australians, when we say something,
Speaker 1: we kind of mean it. We did about negative gearing
Speaker 1: and negative gearing changes in twenty nineteen. Those who think, oh, look,
Speaker 1: we can just shuffle to this and shuffle to that.
Speaker 1: Guess what no reality is. If even half of those
Speaker 1: don't know split fifty to fifty, the majority would be
Speaker 1: in favor to break it down by age, gender, and
Speaker 1: renters and people have paid off the houses. Thank you
Speaker 1: for this detail that again comes from the city, from
Speaker 1: the financial review. The people who own a house or
Speaker 1: are trying to pay it off, fifty three percent they
Speaker 1: don't change the system fifty six percent For those that
Speaker 1: have paid off the house. Unsurprisingly, forty four percent of
Speaker 1: renters say the system should change. A property investor sixty
Speaker 1: four percent says, please don't change it. Somebody who doesn't
Speaker 1: have an investment property but may well be paying off
Speaker 1: or owns her own house pretty much fifty to fifty
Speaker 1: or forty forty there. When it comes to young people,
Speaker 1: it is in favor of a change until thirty four.
Speaker 1: Then it's even at thirty five, and then over fifty
Speaker 1: five it is clearly in favor of the system that
Speaker 1: currently exists. But you know nothing to see here, However,
Speaker 1: Australia voted a few years ago. Don't expect it to
Speaker 1: change again now let's get to the United States, where
Speaker 1: again we are rather excited because we are within that
Speaker 1: two week window. Tomorrow is two weeks to go till
Speaker 1: the American election. I won't bore you with too much
Speaker 1: data tonight because I wanted to focus in and around Queensland. Now. Interestingly,
Speaker 1: Nate Silver, guy I've spoken about a lot. He was
Speaker 1: a guy who got it really wrong in twenty sixteen
Speaker 1: when he was running one of those websites predicting seven
Speaker 1: percent this and twenty percent chance of this. He was
Speaker 1: suggesting Hillary would win based off the data. He got
Speaker 1: bitten on the backside. He tweeted this today about the
Speaker 1: closing days of this election. Not sure to what extent
Speaker 1: it's intentional, but the last couple of weeks feel twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen ish. Trump is dominating the news coverage with a
Speaker 1: bunch of stunts that aren't really issues that Harris wants
Speaker 1: to be closing on. So let's compare where things were
Speaker 1: four years ago when Trump lost and eight years ago
Speaker 1: when Trump won. In twenty twenty, Biden led by seven
Speaker 1: and a half points nationally, Harris leads by less than
Speaker 1: one percent. Hillary nationally was leading by six point two
Speaker 1: yet lost Hillary was leading, as you can see in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada,
Speaker 1: North Carolina, or we all know that all of those
Speaker 1: did not end up coming home. In fact, Florida we
Speaker 1: all know was very pro Trump in the end. Biden
Speaker 1: was leading all bar one state in the Swing States
Speaker 1: four years ago. Now all bar what one of the
Speaker 1: states currently Trump is leading. So Clinton isn't just outperforming
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris and she was in a losing campaign. Biden,
Speaker 1: who only just won the states in the swing, well,
Speaker 1: he was leading by way more than she is. But now,
Speaker 1: according to the polls, Trump is in the position where
Speaker 1: he is leading, meaning if it's twenty sixteen ish, the
Speaker 1: people who think that the Poles are heading their way
Speaker 1: are the Trump people who would be surprised by a
Speaker 1: Harris victory. We'll talk about that with Meg and Kelly
Speaker 1: a little bit later, but when you want to compare
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris, you can just watch them.
Speaker 1: Well done to whoever edited this.
Speaker 8: I am second tired of the negative diadarind of vial, dangerous,
Speaker 8: hazier than be in.
Speaker 3: Your line of people, who's a poor Donald Trump?
Speaker 1: It is time for.
Speaker 4: Us to say no, we are.
Speaker 8: Not going backwards, We're going forward.
Speaker 1: Wow, that's the way she's closing. She thinks things are different.
Speaker 1: Eight years later, the polls say no. It's twenty sixteen ish.
Speaker 1: Quick break back with more. You're on Paul Murray Live,
Speaker 1: No Sorts, No Left East tonight we'll talk about Queensland,
Speaker 1: but lot more and then Meghan Kelly before we've done.
Speaker 1: Don't forget tomorrow night, special edition of the program, A
Speaker 1: pub test from Brisbane. All right, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for watching Meghan Kelly in a couple of minutes. Let's
Speaker 1: get into it all right now with James Ashby of
Speaker 1: course running for one Nation doing so in the seat
Speaker 1: of Keppel. I'm reading good things. The man's getting close.
Speaker 1: We back him all the way he comes with the
Speaker 1: Paul Murray bump. All right, don't even worry about the
Speaker 1: hat of ites, just go in and back him in.
Speaker 1: And the lovely Holly Hughes, of course is always here
Speaker 1: to help joining us. Well, she should be in the
Speaker 1: man cave, but I think something's broken, so I appreciate
Speaker 1: you being here anyway, my friend. And now James, I
Speaker 1: want to talk before we get into to your sense
Speaker 1: of things and minor party vote all the rest of it.
Speaker 1: I wanted to explain to people about what is the
Speaker 1: maths of this election. Okay, for the LMP to become
Speaker 1: the governor, they need twelve seats. Ten of those are
Speaker 1: in regional areas. They will of course not win all
Speaker 1: of those. The assumption would be one nation has a
Speaker 1: good crack of those, KAP has a good crack at those,
Speaker 1: maybe in a d independent or so. So they have
Speaker 1: to start moving a little bit closer to Brisbane. The
Speaker 1: closer you get to Brisbane, the harder it is for
Speaker 1: the LNP to win a seat. And as we're seeing
Speaker 1: in the polling during the campaign, Miles has somehow been
Speaker 1: able to fortify himself the closer against to Brisbane. Do
Speaker 1: you think this thing is going to be close and
Speaker 1: the best case for the LMP is falling over the
Speaker 1: line rather than bursting through the line.
Speaker 9: Well, it's starting to appear that way, and largely because
Speaker 9: I've seen a tactic on these polling booths over the
Speaker 9: last couple of days, in particular the end of last
Speaker 9: week and the start of this week, where now the
Speaker 9: unions are starting to get involved and they are really
Speaker 9: playing hardball. They're sending a message out there to voters
Speaker 9: that a coalition government, any conservative is going to criminalize abortions.
Speaker 9: And it's just a false narrative, but it seems to
Speaker 9: be working. There's AD's been run everywhere and it's clearly
Speaker 9: working down in the inner city parts or the southeast corner.
Speaker 9: Now it's just a lie, But these are the tactics
Speaker 9: that Labor use. But not to mention Paul, the tactics
Speaker 9: of lies are now starting to appear within the LMP.
Speaker 1: This is how.
Speaker 9: Desperate the two major parties have become as we go
Speaker 9: into the final four days. This is what arrived in
Speaker 9: letterboxes in Keppel. Don't risk it suggesting that if you
Speaker 9: vote for one nation, we're going to support Labor. Now
Speaker 9: I've said it from that David arm On, that we
Speaker 9: are going to port we're going to put Labor and
Speaker 9: the Greens last, and it's been said for ever in
Speaker 9: a day, it's the most dishonest campaign from the l MP.
Speaker 9: It proves to me how low they're prepared to go
Speaker 9: win at any cost in a seat like this, and
Speaker 9: I think a lot of people in seats like Keppel
Speaker 9: will not appreciate the dishonesty from David Chris and fully
Speaker 9: and more importantly Ben Riley, who's running the campaign, he
Speaker 9: signed off on this. Now, if you want mates and politics,
Speaker 9: don't ask for the L ANDP, go for a dog
Speaker 9: because so you're not going to get honesty out of
Speaker 9: either of the major parties. And this is what frustrates
Speaker 9: people because when they get in they tell big porky pies.
Speaker 9: You know, the police service working perfectly fine, the hospital
Speaker 9: system working perfectly fine. It's not And we just need
Speaker 9: a bit of honesty because if we're going to get change,
Speaker 9: you've got to be honest with yourself as politicians because
Speaker 9: only then can we impact change in regional parts as
Speaker 9: well as in the southeast corner. So it's a real
Speaker 9: desperate ploy at the moment. I know both parties are
Speaker 9: desperate to govern in their own right, but if they
Speaker 9: need to use the minor parties to stumble across the line, look,
Speaker 9: one nation going to be your best friend for then
Speaker 9: they can't see it. They see us as the enemy
Speaker 9: for some reason.
Speaker 1: And again this is the absurdity, right, which is that
Speaker 1: if you squeeze too hard, then again, if it does
Speaker 1: come down to very specific negotiations one two people, it
Speaker 1: can end up in weird places. Holly again, you know,
Speaker 1: I only ever profess to be as best as possible, streets, smarts,
Speaker 1: you know, all around of it. But if I've got
Speaker 1: it right about the nature of Queensland, right, that it's
Speaker 1: a bloody big place. But because so many people live
Speaker 1: in the southeast, that's where the seats are. If you've
Speaker 1: got to win twelve, you can't just assume you're going
Speaker 1: to do it all north of the sunny coast. What
Speaker 1: do you think about the way labor is closing and
Speaker 1: this particular tactic. I think it's as big a lie
Speaker 1: as medi scare, but I think it could be almost
Speaker 1: as successful about pushing this right to the line.
Speaker 8: It's an extraordinary debate point or argument that's being put.
Speaker 8: And we're not America, but there seems to be this
Speaker 8: desperation to inject American style politics and American issues into
Speaker 8: our political narrative. It just is extraordinary to me. I've
Speaker 8: watched most of the debate before I head out here,
Speaker 8: and I couldn't believe the length of time spent debating
Speaker 8: the issue of abortion. I mean, it just beggars belief
Speaker 8: in a state like Queensland that we know we saw
Speaker 8: during COVID, how ill prepared they are, how bad their
Speaker 8: hospital system is, and the youth crime, and that is
Speaker 8: north of Brisbane. I know when you get up to Townsville,
Speaker 8: and my geography is not great, James, so I'm sorry
Speaker 8: you know where you are and this sort of without
Speaker 8: having a map up there. But we know that the
Speaker 8: youth crime is a significant issue and that there are
Speaker 8: horrible cases that have occurred. I find it extraordinary that
Speaker 8: anyone would look to reward or labor and put them
Speaker 8: back in again. I am I have to say, James,
Speaker 8: I am horrified that that brochure came out saying that
Speaker 8: one nation would put that would put labor and the
Speaker 8: Greens above the LMP. With that is that is actually
Speaker 8: quite breathtaking.
Speaker 1: Yeah, ridiculous. And also got to think about a scenarios
Speaker 1: that the federal elections coming around and those one nation
Speaker 1: preferences are going to matter, that UAP preferences are going
Speaker 1: to matter. And just because something plays you know, well
Speaker 1: in Fortitude Valley or in you know, Fitzroy and Melbourne
Speaker 1: where your actual numbers are all right, guys, we could
Speaker 1: go on all the way through. If anyone wants more information,
Speaker 1: how do they find it about your candidacy, James. I
Speaker 1: want people to be able to read up before they
Speaker 1: go and vote, particularly in Keppel on Saturday, Paul.
Speaker 9: They can just go to James Ashby dot com AU
Speaker 9: or my Facebook page. And I want to make one
Speaker 9: last point, Paul, I think this is really important. I
Speaker 9: know there's not many Labor viewers out there, but anyone
Speaker 9: that may regularly vote for Labor, you need to understand
Speaker 9: they're going to lose likely this election, and they've decided
Speaker 9: to give their preferences to the Greens and the LNPs.
Speaker 9: So if the imp trip across the line, it's because
Speaker 9: Labor gave the opposition their preferences. Really important for any
Speaker 9: Labor member or Labor voter to remember. So go to
Speaker 9: my website, James Ashby dot com do AU if you
Speaker 9: want to find out more.
Speaker 1: Good Man good Plug always happen to back you in.
Speaker 1: I really like James has been very kind to us
Speaker 1: for a very long time. I want you to work
Speaker 1: get behind him in the seat of Kempel. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go back to national issues. Holly. You saw me
Speaker 1: mention before about the inner details of this essential poll
Speaker 1: where according to their poll today, Labor has a lower
Speaker 1: vote with women than the LNP. There's a greater disapproval
Speaker 1: with Anthony Abernezi than Peter Dutton. We know that an
Speaker 1: election is not this weekend, but we're on our way
Speaker 1: towards one. We are starting to get into a place
Speaker 1: where Labor is going to have to do something extraordinary
Speaker 1: to change the subject here. And I don't know they've
Speaker 1: got it in it. They've already tried two little too
Speaker 1: late tax cuts. I don't know what they've got, but
Speaker 1: they're going to have to take in something pretty big
Speaker 1: because it's not going to be uga booger about Peter Dutton.
Speaker 8: Well, I think they've got a hail Mary out on
Speaker 8: getting a rate cut or some sort of massive reversal
Speaker 8: fortunes in people's economic circumstances. We know the cost of
Speaker 8: living is the number one, two, three, four and five
Speaker 8: issue for most Australian families, and I think they are
Speaker 8: just absolutely hanging out that somehow or other there is
Speaker 8: a change of fortune. I think what was really interesting
Speaker 8: in that poll is how low their primary vote has gone.
Speaker 8: It is now significantly lower than it was when they
Speaker 8: won the last election, and that is you know, it's
Speaker 8: really concerning from the major party's perspective how low the
Speaker 8: primary votes are going. Certainly the LMP's gone up a
Speaker 8: little bit, but they're still you know, going back to
Speaker 8: my campaigning days twenty years ago, when it used to
Speaker 8: kind of be forty labor, forty liberal, you know, twenty
Speaker 8: percent in the middle. It's just it's nothing like that now.
Speaker 8: And I think that's really problematic because you are going
Speaker 8: to see these sort of messy parliaments, hung parliaments that
Speaker 8: are going to be really difficult to navigate going through.
Speaker 8: When they do need to be big reforms, there does
Speaker 8: need to be big discussions. Yet you can't have the
Speaker 8: big discussions when you've got you know, a lot of
Speaker 8: lunatics running in the asylum.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, thankfully. Look, it's not great for the state,
Speaker 1: but at least it's not Upper House in Queensland. So
Speaker 1: you formed numbers downstairs. That's it for the next four years.
Speaker 1: So should you be a majority or if it ends
Speaker 1: up being a minority, well, it's always fun to watch
Speaker 1: every day now, James. We've talked before about medical cannabis.
Speaker 1: One nation's actually led the way in terms of people's
Speaker 1: availability to it, But there are some examples where some
Speaker 1: people seem to be taking the piss in the way
Speaker 1: that say people in California used to before it was legalized, right,
Speaker 1: which is get the doctor's prescription where you say, yeah,
Speaker 1: i've got really sore eyes. Oh great, tick and flick,
Speaker 1: you can go and get it right. And according to
Speaker 1: a story today, one Australian doctor was prescribing twelve thousand
Speaker 1: patients cannabis scripts in a six month period. Now there's
Speaker 1: ways to get this stuff online. It's all legal, it's
Speaker 1: all above board. What does this tell you? Obviously a
Speaker 1: lot of people want access to it. Let's all assume
Speaker 1: each and every one of them deserve it. But I
Speaker 1: don't reckon one doctor in twelve thousand is the way
Speaker 1: to do it, well, Paul.
Speaker 9: The reason one Nation supported this from twenty sixteen, when
Speaker 9: we'd run a very strong campaign to make sure that
Speaker 9: we legalized and put in place the doctors who could
Speaker 9: prescribe legal cannabis for medical purposes was because it's good
Speaker 9: for pallative care patients, cancer patients, people who've got muscle
Speaker 9: spasms and PTSD, those sorts of things. They're genuine medical
Speaker 9: needs and rather than people up on opioids. Why we
Speaker 9: decided this was because opioids. There's one hundred and fifty
Speaker 9: people presented to hospit one hundred every single day through opioids.
Speaker 9: Three people every day die because of it, and so
Speaker 9: that's the narrative we went down. It's a common sense approach. Look,
Speaker 9: if people are over prescribing by all means, look into them.
Speaker 9: But please do not throw out medical cannabis in this country.
Speaker 9: It is dearly needed and it's a much better option
Speaker 9: than we can opioids.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, thank you, I do appreciate it. We
Speaker 1: will resume the conversation again next week. Megan Kelly straight
Speaker 1: after the break. For the time of the week, I'm
Speaker 1: sure it's yours two. As we talked to Megan Kelly,
Speaker 1: host of The Megan Kelly Show in the United States,
Speaker 1: two weeks to go. Now. I thought Kamala was all
Speaker 1: about joy and vibes, but the actual closing message is
Speaker 1: more like Biden in a pantsuit. Basically, Trump is evil,
Speaker 1: Trump is awful, and she's taking out on the road
Speaker 1: Dick Cheney's daughter. This doesn't look like the team that's winning,
Speaker 1: does it.
Speaker 5: It's yes, of course, it's all turned forget the joy now,
Speaker 5: it's all negative about Trump and parading Liz Cheney out there.
Speaker 5: They really want to get the Liz Cheney Republicans. Well
Speaker 5: you did Liz Cheney and her dad, Dick Cheney. Those
Speaker 5: are the Liz Cheney Republicans. That the list does not
Speaker 5: go on past those two. So you can parade Liz
Speaker 5: Cheney around all you want to, all these road stops
Speaker 5: and rallies. They're convincing no one. That's not persuasive. So
Speaker 5: then her other goal is reportedly to get Nicky Haley Republicans,
Speaker 5: to get those say twenty percent in the primaries who
Speaker 5: voted for Nicki Haley and did not vote for Trump.
Speaker 5: Those people do not Trump. When it's a Trump Kamala
Speaker 5: Harris race. They preferred a more neo conversion of conservatism,
Speaker 5: and they might have preferred someone who is less dramatic
Speaker 5: and controversial than Trump, but that does not bring you,
Speaker 5: as a Republican into Kamala Harris territory. They're just pretending
Speaker 5: that it does. The problem for them is there's no
Speaker 5: more democratic base to stimulate. The men have fled. All
Speaker 5: they're left with is defeat men who don't mind being
Speaker 5: cast as beta asparagus kale eating Barack Obama types, and
Speaker 5: all the alphas have left for the Republican Party because
Speaker 5: they've been shamed for the fact that they are men,
Speaker 5: never mind white men, never mind white men who might
Speaker 5: actually have jobs and be traditional and want to get married.
Speaker 5: So they've fled the party and now they're trying to
Speaker 5: run those numbers up with the women. But there's only
Speaker 5: so far those numbers can go. They're not all women
Speaker 5: are lefties. Many women who are more conservative they're going
Speaker 5: to vote Trump, and so they've hit this wall. They
Speaker 5: can't get black men, they can't get Hispanic men. So
Speaker 5: they're circling the wagons doing whatever they can. But it's
Speaker 5: literally down to like Liz Cheney and Nikki Haley Republicans,
Speaker 5: which is a either very small or non gettible pool
Speaker 5: for her.
Speaker 1: Now. A bit of a theme in tonight show is
Speaker 1: not to be defeatists, but to explain when two things
Speaker 1: can happen, two things can happen, meaning yes, despite the
Speaker 1: fact that it all looks like it's going Trump's way
Speaker 1: and we'd all like it to go Trump's way, those
Speaker 1: of us that are having this conversation or watching us
Speaker 1: on the Telly. Reality is we could wake up and
Speaker 1: Harris ends up winning. So let's have the chat before
Speaker 1: that might happen. What can you see that maybe isn't
Speaker 1: as obvious to everyone else if she does win, about
Speaker 1: how she's winning.
Speaker 5: No, it's a good question because you don't want to
Speaker 5: be surprised, and we could be because it's so tight,
Speaker 5: notwithstanding in the fact that Trump's leading in all those pulls,
Speaker 5: it's by a little it's tight. Take tay tape. Yeah,
Speaker 5: I'll tell you what I think it is. First of all,
Speaker 5: all the people I talked to her are on the
Speaker 5: ground trying to get people out to vote on Team Trump,
Speaker 5: and are you know, really running hurt on that in
Speaker 5: several states are telling me the same thing, fifty to fifty.
Speaker 5: It's fifty to fifty. We need everyone to get out everyone.
Speaker 5: So they're not breathing a sigh of relief at all.
Speaker 5: No one's getting back to me with he's running away
Speaker 5: with it. And even I've talked to top top pollsters
Speaker 5: who are more on the inside than they are the
Speaker 5: out who say the same thing. They don't say he's losing.
Speaker 5: They don't say he's going to lose. They say it
Speaker 5: couldn't be any tighter, and they're you know, nervous, not
Speaker 5: because they think he's going to lose, but because it's
Speaker 5: too tight for comfort. So that's one thing. Secondly, there
Speaker 5: is a real question about whether they did fix the polls.
Speaker 5: They overpolled Dems back in twenty sixteen. That's why we
Speaker 5: had these huge margins for Hillary Clinton when we all
Speaker 5: found out later Trump won because they were over sampling Dems,
Speaker 5: and in particular were sampling college educated Dems, which is
Speaker 5: entirely a DEM group, right, Demo. Those are not Trump's
Speaker 5: bans or his voters. So then they thought they fixed
Speaker 5: it in twenty twenty, but you know it was those
Speaker 5: poles were wrong too. They had Joe Biden way up.
Speaker 5: I mean, Joe Biden did not win by those margins.
Speaker 5: I just read to you, you know, seven point eight,
Speaker 5: seven point five.
Speaker 7: It was tight.
Speaker 5: It was very tight. As you know, we won by
Speaker 5: about forty thousand votes in the swing states. So they
Speaker 5: may have done a little better, but they weren't fixed.
Speaker 5: And then they said well, yeah, by twenty twenty two,
Speaker 5: they had removed the over inclusion of DEM inclined voters,
Speaker 5: and that's why we had a predicted red wave that
Speaker 5: never materialized, because they fixed the polls by twenty twenty
Speaker 5: two to factor in more Republican voters. But we can't
Speaker 5: rely on that because Trump was not on the ballot,
Speaker 5: and Trump, as the world knows, is a very unique force.
Speaker 5: And Trump without a ballot without Trump isn't entirely different
Speaker 5: animal than a ballot with Trump. Who So that's one
Speaker 5: of the things that makes this whole thing unsteady and unknowable,
Speaker 5: Like we're going to find out on the week of
Speaker 5: November fifth, whether they really have fixed the polls this
Speaker 5: time or if they've over corrected the polls this time.
Speaker 5: And having said all that, let me give you one
Speaker 5: other fact. The one poll that they said was the
Speaker 5: most accurate poll of twenty twenty, the most accurate poll
Speaker 5: of twenty twenty is Atlas Intel, and they just released
Speaker 5: their latest poll and it shows Trump with a two
Speaker 5: point seven percentage point lead over Harris on national level.
Speaker 5: That's zero point seven percentage points outside their margin of error,
Speaker 5: which is two And when you add in the full
Speaker 5: field like a third party candidates, it's Trump up three
Speaker 5: point four percentage points, and it has Trump with a
Speaker 5: nine point lead over independence over Kamala Harris. When it
Speaker 5: comes to independence. It also has Trump up one point
Speaker 5: two percentage point in Michigan, up three in Pennsylvania, up
Speaker 5: two in Georgia, up point six in Arizona, up point
Speaker 5: three in Nevada, and it has Harris up two and
Speaker 5: one in North Carolina and Wisconsin, respectively. So that's Trump
Speaker 5: leading in six, well five, let me say one, two, three, four,
Speaker 5: five of the seven swing states. That's very good news
Speaker 5: for Trump. That's the most accurate poll last time around.
Speaker 5: So look, it could go either way. Paul, and get
Speaker 5: out the vote efforts are going to have so much
Speaker 5: to do, they're saying, to get out the vote effort
Speaker 5: could be worth three points to her. Well, if he's
Speaker 5: up three point four and the margin of era is two,
Speaker 5: you can subtract two from that, so maybe he's up
Speaker 5: one point four and you can get out the voters
Speaker 5: worth three for her on election day. Yeah, this could
Speaker 5: still go her way, And it could go her way,
Speaker 5: not easily but kind of big time if you add
Speaker 5: on three percentage points to all the swing states.
Speaker 1: We love you, Meghan, who show that Megan Kelly show
Speaker 1: could be heard live on Sirius XM, on podcasts, or
Speaker 1: of course on YouTube. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 5: Always a pleasure, paul I, see you next week,