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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Aylmer,

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Speaker 1: and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Coucoulis. At

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Speaker 1: this time on a Monday morning, you'll find him at

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Speaker 1: the cook dot com and on x using the handle

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Speaker 1: the Kirk Stephen. Good morning and a very good morning, Sean.

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Speaker 1: A bit of a lull now old economics at the moment. Well,

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Speaker 1: there is no such thing as a lulk when you

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Speaker 1: got Donald Trump in the world. But at least figure

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Speaker 1: wise we had last I mean, the consumer sentiment and

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Speaker 1: business sentiment was kind of interesting, particularly the consumer sentiment stuff.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index jumped another five points,

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Speaker 2: so telling us that consumers love raycuts. That was the

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Speaker 2: most comprehensive survey since the raycut in the middle of February.

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Speaker 2: So that's a good sign because when consumers are feeling optimistic,

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Speaker 2: they've probably got a little confidence about their job security,

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Speaker 2: about it's time to buy a major household appliance, which

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Speaker 2: certainly showed up in some of the subsets of the numbers.

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Speaker 2: So we consumers still net nega lived. There are still

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Speaker 2: a few more pestiments than optimists, but compared with where

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Speaker 2: we were, say six or twelve months ago, consumers sentiment.

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Speaker 2: I won't say it's drawing back, but it's coming back

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Speaker 2: quite nicely. And you know, economics works, right, cuts do

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Speaker 2: tend to have a more positive influence than not.

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Speaker 1: Economics works. I love that Stephen tell me as if

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Speaker 1: we needed to be confirmed of that. Of course it

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Speaker 1: works this week. The labor force figures. I mean, not

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Speaker 1: a lot I run, but we have labor force figures

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Speaker 1: and they're important.

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Speaker 2: They're really important, of course, and they're one of the

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Speaker 2: ones that IBA Governor Michelle Bullock highlighted and has highlighted

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Speaker 2: DEVI since she's had the role and probably even before

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Speaker 2: she had the role as governor as one of the

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Speaker 2: really important ones at the RBA look at when it

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Speaker 2: comes to judging what to do with interest rates. And

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Speaker 2: you know, it's fair to say that over glash well,

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Speaker 2: the last year we've had a remarkably resilient labor market

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Speaker 2: that we've had a very chunky average thirty to forty

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Speaker 2: thousand jobs every month, apart from a little bit of

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Speaker 2: polatility month on month. So that's like a real solid

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Speaker 2: momentum of job creation. The unemployment rate, which got to

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Speaker 2: four percent about fifteen months ago. Today is four point

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Speaker 2: one percent. So again that's just arounding here in the statistics.

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Speaker 2: So you've got this sort of really incredible dynamic when

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Speaker 2: the economy has just been muddling along pretty sluggishly, that

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Speaker 2: we've had this pretty good level of job creation, that

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rates basically flat to just a tiny smidge

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Speaker 2: and high that it might have been a year eighteen

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Speaker 2: months ago. And that's why these numbers are important. You know,

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Speaker 2: we know that a lot of the jobs that have

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Speaker 2: been created in the last year have been what we

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Speaker 2: call the non market once government jobs in other words,

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Speaker 2: so healthcare, age care, education, ndis related, and there's nothing

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Speaker 2: wrong with that, but that's just where there have been.

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Speaker 2: The private sector has been a bit more sluggish in

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Speaker 2: terms of hiring, and as the Harba has been saying,

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Speaker 2: there comes a point where the public sectors hired all

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Speaker 2: the nurses and teachers and cares. That it leads to

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Speaker 2: and I think what month that happens. Who knows? It

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Speaker 2: could be this month, which is why the market consensus

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Speaker 2: is for a slight pullback in employment growth and maybe

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Speaker 2: plus ten thousand and the unemployment rate probably to tick

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Speaker 2: up from four point one to four point two percent.

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Speaker 2: But you know, we'll watch that one with a huge

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Speaker 2: amount of interests.

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Speaker 1: Well, also here from Sarah Hunter, who's basically the chief

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Speaker 1: economist for the Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Sarah Hunter's doing a brilliant job. I happened to

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Speaker 2: watch her at the House of Reps appearance of the

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Speaker 2: senior RBA officials, what was that a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: and she gave a really wonderful analysis of some of

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Speaker 2: the things that are confronting them and concerning them too.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're brilliant economists, but they're not infallible, and

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Speaker 2: that's not criticism. Because we've got this really interesting dilemma

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Speaker 2: with productivity the labor market, as we mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 2: job creation with not much economic growth. What on earth

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Speaker 2: is going on there? And we've had wages growth on

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Speaker 2: another little decelerating. So here's Sarah Hunter's chance to sort

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Speaker 2: of just give a bit of an update from what

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Speaker 2: the RB was thinking a few weeks ago. Because we

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Speaker 2: have had the wages numbers, the GDP numbers, and a

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Speaker 2: few other bits and bobs have come out and dare

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Speaker 2: I say it, we've had some volatile policy settings out

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Speaker 2: of the US. I don't know how it was that politely,

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Speaker 2: but that's what we've been seeing and it does have

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Speaker 2: implications for Australia and it does have implications potentially for

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Speaker 2: what the RBA does. So her speech is going to

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Speaker 2: be watched very very closely for any update on the

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Speaker 2: RBA think.

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Speaker 1: And we've got a few central banks of this week

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Speaker 1: deliberating on interest rates. Out to see central banks.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we do again a really good week in no

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Speaker 2: particular order. But you've got the Fed, which is in

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Speaker 2: particular or actually because they're probably the most important one.

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Speaker 2: And look, the current betting is no change in rates,

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Speaker 2: even though we had reasonable US inflation numbers last week.

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Speaker 2: You know, the down draft, if we can call it

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Speaker 2: that in the stock market is causing a little bit

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Speaker 2: of concern. But for this meaning, because we just don't

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Speaker 2: know quite what the impact on the US economy will

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Speaker 2: be of the tariff policy, the FED will be on hold,

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Speaker 2: and probably mister Trump will be very upset about that

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Speaker 2: because he wants lower rates. Our friends at the Bank

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Speaker 2: of Japan confronting, you know, a really different scenario. They're

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Speaker 2: rate hikers at the moment because they've got well for

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Speaker 2: the first time in what twenty twenty five years or something.

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Speaker 2: A little bit of an inflation issue there from a

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Speaker 2: whole bunch of structural demographic issues, so the boj might

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Speaker 2: be hiking just a tiny bit not given. And then

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Speaker 2: our friends at the Bank of England, goodness for old

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Speaker 2: UK economy muddling from crisis to crisis, they may cut again,

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Speaker 2: although they've got there's a residual concern that a lot

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Speaker 2: of us have about that inflation momentum. They've already cut

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Speaker 2: quite a lot already too, so it's that sort of

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Speaker 2: more of a lineball call. But again, watching what's happens

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Speaker 2: to interest rate setting from these big three central banks

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Speaker 2: will be really important. And don't forget the Bank of

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Speaker 2: Canada that actually did cut last week too, So there's

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Speaker 2: still some cuts going on in big comparable economies to us,

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Speaker 2: and again that'll be interesting to see just what happens

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Speaker 2: to these other big ones later this week.

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Speaker 1: And Joe the Wee Stephen will do thank you. That's

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Speaker 1: economist Steven to Cook curl Us, better known as the Kooki.

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Speaker 1: You can find here at thekook dot Com at t

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Speaker 1: h E K K O U K T A G

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Speaker 1: e k O UK dot com. Don't follow him on

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Speaker 1: x using the handle the kok. I'm sure ailman, this

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Speaker 1: is here, and greed the weak ahead