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Speaker 1: You can listen to the Front on your smart speaker

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Speaker 1: every morning to hear the latest episode. Just say play

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Speaker 1: the news from the Australian. From the Australian, here's what's

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Speaker 1: on the Front. I'm Kristin Amiot. It's Tuesday, August twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: Peter Dutton is the most divisive leader of any major

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Speaker 1: political party in Australia's modern history. That's according to Treasurer

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Speaker 1: Jim Chalmers, who made his scathing assessment of the opposition

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Speaker 1: leader in a major speech in Melbourne on Monday night.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Chalmers looked forward to the next election, saying Dutton's

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Speaker 1: divisiveness should be disqualifying. One hundred billion dollars that's how

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Speaker 1: much the Coalition plans to say if it wins the

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Speaker 1: next election. It's being touted as a back to basics

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Speaker 1: approach on spending as Australians feel the crunch from cost

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Speaker 1: of living pressures. That exclusive story is live right now

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Speaker 1: at The Australian dot com dot a U be Alert,

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Speaker 1: not Alarmed. Our chief international correspondent believes airstrikes by Israel

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Speaker 1: and Hesbela over the weekend are likely to reduce the

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Speaker 1: risk of war, and Cameron Stewart says, it's clear nobody's

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Speaker 1: ready for all out war in the Middle East. That's

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Speaker 1: today's episode. On Sunday morning, rockets rained down on southern Lebanon.

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Speaker 1: They were targeting military sites belonging to the Iranian backed

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Speaker 1: terrorist group Hesbla. Prime Minister Benjamin NETTNYA, who said later

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Speaker 1: that the Israeli Defense Force was acting on intelligence that

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Speaker 1: indicated a large scale attack was brewing over Israel's northern border.

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Speaker 1: Zbala Israel said thousands of Hesbela military sites had been destroyed,

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Speaker 1: but within hours, in the early morning light, Israel's infamous

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Speaker 1: Iron Dome sprang into action, intercepting hundreds of rockets launched

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Speaker 1: by the Lebanese group. Birds can be heard chirping, but

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Speaker 1: the light of dawn pales in comparison to the fiery

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Speaker 1: tales of missiles zigzagging across the sky. A Hesbela said

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Speaker 1: it had sent more than two hundred rockets south into

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Speaker 1: populated areas of northern Israel. Drones were captured exploding on

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Speaker 1: film two, but only one woman was injured as a

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Speaker 1: direct result of the attack. Al Lado woman held Falado

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Speaker 1: this was an act of revere by Hesbelah for the

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Speaker 1: death of its military chief on July thirty.

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Speaker 2: And Jon Padilla, the hatman in shah Allah.

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Speaker 1: Israel hasn't claimed any responsibility for the assassination, but it

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Speaker 1: didn't denounce it either, and Hesbela hasn't ruled out further attacks.

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Speaker 1: Cam rotrek from both sides of the border appears to

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Speaker 1: indicate that this is an escalation of the conflict in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East. But things were strangely quiet after those

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Speaker 1: hundreds of rockets were fired from both Israel and Lebanon

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Speaker 1: on the weekend. So is this an escalation, Well, it's interesting.

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Speaker 2: It's an escalation certainly in the very short term, but

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Speaker 2: I think in the longer term it probably isn't.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.

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Speaker 2: Now, of course things are very fluid, anything can change

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Speaker 2: in the next forty eight hours or so. But interestingly,

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Speaker 2: this barage of Baroca fired all occur within a twenty

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Speaker 2: four hour period, and it seemed as if this was

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Speaker 2: going to escalate the conflict. However, Hesbala then abruptly stopped

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Speaker 2: its bombardment and said that's all for now, and Israel

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Speaker 2: didn't have a big, heavy blanket response. So I think

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Speaker 2: if you read between the lines, even though there was

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Speaker 2: a lot of literally smoke and bombardment on both sides,

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Speaker 2: I think what we're seeing here is a desire by

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Speaker 2: both Hesba and Israel to limit the conflict to some degree.

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Speaker 1: When Hamas militants invaded southern Israel on October seven, killing

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Speaker 1: almost twelve hundred people, Israel was totally blindsided. It retaliated

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Speaker 1: with a full scale invasion of Gaza, where her Mass

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Speaker 1: is based. Thousands of people have been killed or injured

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Speaker 1: in that conflict, many of them are Palestinian civilians. Millions

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Speaker 1: more have been displaced, left with ourt shelter, food and

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Speaker 1: clean water. Mediations, and ceasefire negotiations have failed, the gunfire

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Speaker 1: raging for all but six days. Hezbela joined the fighting

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Speaker 1: the very next day, on October eighth, and has fired

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Speaker 1: thousands of missiles and drones at northern Israel since then,

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Speaker 1: sparking fears this could become an all out regional war.

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Speaker 1: So far, that hasn't happened. Cam You've written for the

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Speaker 1: paper that the events of the weekend weren't necessarily enough

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Speaker 1: to tip this conflict into a region wide war. Are

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Speaker 1: we seeing the crystallization of Israel's strategy? Here? Is this

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Speaker 1: ten month assault of Gaza a warning to the rest

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Speaker 1: of the region.

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Speaker 2: Well, the Israel certainly has been very muscular in its

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Speaker 2: response to any threats. It's obviously hurted sinternational reputation by

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Speaker 2: the heaviness of the response in Gaza. It's certainly responded

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Speaker 2: very vigorously to previous attacks by Hezbalah and by Iran's

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Speaker 2: proxies in the region as well. But I think Israel

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Speaker 2: does not want to go into have a full scale

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Speaker 2: conflict with Hesba. Hezebela is the best armed terror force

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Speaker 2: in the region. If it really wanted to, if it

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Speaker 2: really wanted to attack Israel, especially civilian centers, it could

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Speaker 2: do horrific damage to Israel. What's happened is Israel has

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Speaker 2: to basically abandon villagers in northern Israel. There's tens of

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Speaker 2: thousands of people there Christian who can't go back to

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Speaker 2: their homes and so this is a real problem for Israel.

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Speaker 2: How does it deal with these low level attacks by

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Speaker 2: Hezbollah without creating a bigger war? And so in a way,

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Speaker 2: this attack allows Hezbollah to, if you like say face

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Speaker 2: to say look, we've attacked Israel, whereas that in fact

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Speaker 2: the attack caused almost no damage to Israel, but it

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Speaker 2: does allow Hesbella to save face. So that's why I

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Speaker 2: think Hesbella might be quite satisfied with this outcome, because

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Speaker 2: it looks like it's been hairy chested about its threats,

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Speaker 2: but in fact it's actually done so in a way

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Speaker 2: that doesn't appear to have infuriated Israel.

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Speaker 1: And what's the calculus for the other fringe players in

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Speaker 1: this conflict? Do you think what's going on in the

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Speaker 1: war rooms of Iran and Yemen for example right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great question because Iran and of course

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Speaker 2: Hesbola are incredibly close. Hesbelah more or less does what

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Speaker 2: Iran wants it to do, and so the question is

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Speaker 2: now what will Iran do? Because Iran, just like Hesbola,

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Speaker 2: pledged to attack Israel. In Iran's case, it was in

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Speaker 2: retaliation for the assassination of the political chief of Hamas

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Speaker 2: in Tehran last month. Iran has done nothing and Israel

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Speaker 2: has waited. Now the question here is what will Iran do.

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Speaker 2: We've seen what Hesbela has done. Will Iran have any

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Speaker 2: sort of strike against Israel? If it did, would it

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Speaker 2: be a big strike or would it be a limited

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Speaker 2: strikee That's really the calculus which everyone's looking at at

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Speaker 2: this minute.

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Speaker 1: Israel's placed a lot of focus on the fact that

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Speaker 1: this was a preemptive strike based on intelligence that it

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Speaker 1: says it's had for several weeks. Now. That's in stark

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Speaker 1: contrast to the catastrophic intelligence failure of October seven? Is

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Speaker 1: that intentional? Do you think are they trying to maybe

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Speaker 1: either reassure Israeli's in there intelligence abilities or are they

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Speaker 1: sending again a warning to other forces in the region

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Speaker 1: that they know what they're up to.

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Speaker 2: I think to a degree, what they're trying to do

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Speaker 2: here is genuinely forestall a very big attack by Hesbla,

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Speaker 2: if that's what Hesbola was planning. But of course the

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Speaker 2: image that gives of Israeli intelligence knowing the threat is

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Speaker 2: certainly something which Israel would be keen the net Niyahu

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Speaker 2: government would be very keen to reinforce. I mean Benjamin

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Speaker 2: nett Niaho, the Israeli Prime Minister. His fundamental political problem

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Speaker 2: above all else here is at the moment that the

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Speaker 2: fighting dies down. If there was a cease fire agreement,

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Speaker 2: for example, between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. The focus

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Speaker 2: politically in Israel will be going on to October seven

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Speaker 2: and on the catastrophic intelligence failures under net Nieh's watch

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Speaker 2: that allowed this massacre of Israelis by Hamas to happen.

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Speaker 2: That is the big shadow that hangs over Israeli politics

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Speaker 2: or the Israeli government at this point in time. So

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Speaker 2: they certainly would like to, wherever possible, demonstrate that their

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Speaker 2: intelligence services are not as bad as they did appear

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Speaker 2: on October seven.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, what the weekend's events mean for the future

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Speaker 1: of the Middle East conflict. Don't forget Subscribers to The

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Speaker 1: Australian get access to this kind of in depth reporting

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Speaker 1: and analysis around the clock. Check us out at the

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Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au and we'll be back after

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Speaker 1: this break. As Israel and hesbel a traded missile fire

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, peace talks hit another hurdle. Hamas rejected a

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Speaker 1: ceasefire deal broken by negotiators from the United States, Katah

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Speaker 1: and Egypt. It took issue with the suggestion Israeli troops

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Speaker 1: would remain stationed on the Philadelphi Corridor. That's a fourteen

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Speaker 1: kilometer strip of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt.

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Speaker 1: It's not the first time a ceasefire deal between Israel

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Speaker 1: and Hamas has fallen over here's Cameron Stewart. Just lastly,

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Speaker 1: Cam on Monday, it was reported that Hamas has rejected

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Speaker 1: the latest ceasefire deal negotiated by the United States and others.

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Speaker 1: This conflict is quickly coming up on a terrible milestone,

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Speaker 1: that's the one year bark. But everyone seems to be

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Speaker 1: in this strange holding pattern where no one's pushing it

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Speaker 1: into a region wide conflict, but no one's backing out either.

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Speaker 1: So where does this conflict go from here in the

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Speaker 1: context of what's happened over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Well, strangely enough, the peace talks are still going on,

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Speaker 2: and it's very difficult to read because each day you

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Speaker 2: hear different things, you read different things. The concept of

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Speaker 2: whether they will agree to this peace deal seems to

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Speaker 2: shift by the day with Hamas, so they don't appear

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Speaker 2: entirely committed to it and entirely reliable. You can also

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Speaker 2: ask the same question of Israel. There's a lot of

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Speaker 2: speculation that Benjamin Nie, who doesn't really like this cease

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Speaker 2: fire deal. He doesn't really want to cease fire. He

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Speaker 2: wants to keep going after Hamas. So I think the

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Speaker 2: commitment to the ceasefire from both Hamas and Israel's point

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Speaker 2: of view is very much up in to debate, and

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Speaker 2: each day you keep thinking it's getting closer and closer.

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Speaker 2: The Americans have been saying it's very close. Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: the President, said just the other day, we think we're

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Speaker 2: very close, but it hasn't yet happened, and it's absolutely

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Speaker 2: no guarantee to happen at this point in time.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can

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Speaker 1: read all our reporting and analysis of the conflict in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East right now at the Australian dot com

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Speaker 1: dot are you