1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,389 Michael Thompson: A surge in jobs is set to trigger more rate 2 00:00:06,390 --> 00:00:11,039 Michael Thompson: rises. Opposition leader Peter Dutton suspends, Liberal Senator David Van 3 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,460 Michael Thompson: from the party room after further allegations about his behavior, 4 00:00:14,849 --> 00:00:17,910 Michael Thompson: and a record year for population growth. It's Friday the 5 00:00:17,910 --> 00:00:21,630 Michael Thompson: 16th of June 2023. Welcome to Fear & Greed, Australia's most 6 00:00:21,630 --> 00:00:25,830 Michael Thompson: popular business podcast. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. 7 00:00:26,070 --> 00:00:27,390 Sean Aylmer: Good morning, Michael. 8 00:00:27,510 --> 00:00:29,940 Michael Thompson: Sean, I'm really excited about today's interview. It is a 9 00:00:29,940 --> 00:00:33,659 Michael Thompson: really, really good, interesting chat. 10 00:00:33,780 --> 00:00:36,210 Sean Aylmer: As they always are. As they always are. 11 00:00:36,269 --> 00:00:37,950 Michael Thompson: I know, but I feel like I almost need to 12 00:00:37,950 --> 00:00:41,820 Michael Thompson: separate this one and say this is particularly exciting because 13 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,540 Michael Thompson: you're talking with Jye Smith who is the managing director 14 00:00:45,540 --> 00:00:48,148 Michael Thompson: of brand agency Doublestar Co. 15 00:00:48,719 --> 00:00:51,899 Sean Aylmer: Yes. We are talking about brands and the importance of 16 00:00:51,900 --> 00:00:54,870 Sean Aylmer: brands, what they convey, how to get a good one. 17 00:00:55,050 --> 00:00:57,720 Sean Aylmer: I ask him to help Fear & Greed out in terms 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,080 Sean Aylmer: of how we might convey ourselves in a brand sense. 19 00:01:01,530 --> 00:01:04,530 Sean Aylmer: It was a very... How do I put this? 20 00:01:05,490 --> 00:01:06,178 Michael Thompson: Enlightening? 21 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,179 Sean Aylmer: Enlightening, but it was actually in plain English. So often 22 00:01:09,179 --> 00:01:12,059 Sean Aylmer: when you talk to some marketing types, there's a lot 23 00:01:12,059 --> 00:01:16,920 Sean Aylmer: of words that I've struggled to understand whereas in this 24 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:18,929 Sean Aylmer: case, Jye was able to put it in very plain 25 00:01:18,930 --> 00:01:21,780 Sean Aylmer: English about what brands mean. He uses a great example 26 00:01:21,780 --> 00:01:25,529 Sean Aylmer: about National Geographic, actually. Knows a lot about National Geographic 27 00:01:25,530 --> 00:01:28,438 Sean Aylmer: and why that brand works. So just a really interesting chat. 28 00:01:28,619 --> 00:01:30,359 Michael Thompson: Yeah, and at no point did he refer to it 29 00:01:30,359 --> 00:01:32,250 Michael Thompson: as going on a brand journey. 30 00:01:32,340 --> 00:01:34,560 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, the word journey was not mentioned. In fact, journey 31 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,600 Sean Aylmer: should just be banned full stop. 32 00:01:36,660 --> 00:01:36,661 Michael Thompson: Let's ban it. 33 00:01:36,661 --> 00:01:36,780 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 34 00:01:36,780 --> 00:01:40,440 Michael Thompson: From this moment, journey shall never be mentioned on Fear & Greed. 35 00:01:40,770 --> 00:01:41,700 Sean Aylmer: Okay. Done. 36 00:01:41,849 --> 00:01:43,319 Michael Thompson: All right. Now that is coming up a little bit 37 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,299 Michael Thompson: later on. It is definitely worth a listen. I think 38 00:01:45,299 --> 00:01:48,329 Michael Thompson: you probably got that message by now. The main story 39 00:01:48,330 --> 00:01:50,700 Michael Thompson: though this morning, Sean, is a big one. The strongest 40 00:01:50,730 --> 00:01:54,030 Michael Thompson: jobs growth in almost a year has pushed the unemployment 41 00:01:54,030 --> 00:01:57,960 Michael Thompson: rate lower and increased the likelihood of more rate rises 42 00:01:57,990 --> 00:01:58,919 Michael Thompson: in coming months. 43 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,400 Sean Aylmer: Yes, the labor market has certainly been on quite the 44 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:07,770 Sean Aylmer: journey. Employment rose by 75, 900 in May, way higher than 45 00:02:07,770 --> 00:02:12,450 Sean Aylmer: expected, demonstrating that the labor market remains strong. Sorry Michael, 46 00:02:12,450 --> 00:02:13,260 Sean Aylmer: I couldn't help myself. 47 00:02:13,620 --> 00:02:17,250 Michael Thompson: You really couldn't resist, could you? Lasted what, 12 seconds? 48 00:02:17,340 --> 00:02:18,328 Michael Thompson: Which is a record. 49 00:02:19,258 --> 00:02:21,839 Sean Aylmer: Okay, sorry. Well let's get back to the business of 50 00:02:21,839 --> 00:02:25,139 Sean Aylmer: telling the news here. So employment rose by 75, 900 51 00:02:25,139 --> 00:02:28,020 Sean Aylmer: in May, way higher than expected, demonstrating that the labor 52 00:02:28,020 --> 00:02:31,650 Sean Aylmer: market remains very strong. There are now more than 1 53 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:36,210 Sean Aylmer: million more people employed compared to pre- pandemic. Full- time 54 00:02:36,210 --> 00:02:40,320 Sean Aylmer: jobs rose last month by almost 62,000 and part- time roles 55 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,830 Sean Aylmer: were up 14, 000. Jobs growth has now averaged about 0. 56 00:02:44,190 --> 00:02:48,780 Sean Aylmer: 3% each month over the past three months. Not quite 57 00:02:48,780 --> 00:02:51,959 Sean Aylmer: as high as it was, but still very solid. The 58 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:57,719 Sean Aylmer: unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3. 7%. The participation rate, the number 59 00:02:57,719 --> 00:03:01,470 Sean Aylmer: of people looking for jobs, hit a record high, confirming 60 00:03:01,470 --> 00:03:04,530 Sean Aylmer: that the labor market is very, very tight. The labor 61 00:03:04,530 --> 00:03:07,530 Sean Aylmer: force figures are lagging, indicators, of course, backward looking. The 62 00:03:07,530 --> 00:03:11,430 Sean Aylmer: forward indicators, things like job advertisements and business hiring intentions, 63 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:16,769 Sean Aylmer: suggests the employment market will slow, but it seems it 64 00:03:16,770 --> 00:03:19,170 Sean Aylmer: will remain robust for some time yet. 65 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,100 Michael Thompson: Oh, I know this is high risk, Sean, but I'm 66 00:03:24,570 --> 00:03:27,030 Michael Thompson: again asking for an economics lesson here. 67 00:03:27,179 --> 00:03:28,260 Sean Aylmer: Oh, God. Heck. 68 00:03:29,490 --> 00:03:32,639 Michael Thompson: Sometimes when you say these things, I'm listening and it's 69 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,369 Michael Thompson: like my brain is trying to race to keep up 70 00:03:35,369 --> 00:03:37,680 Michael Thompson: with you. So I just want to make sense of all 71 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,040 Michael Thompson: of this. This was a lot higher than was expected. 72 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,890 Michael Thompson: You mentioned that. Why have they come in so much higher? 73 00:03:44,970 --> 00:03:49,259 Sean Aylmer: Well, labor force figures are actually very volatile. So the 74 00:03:49,259 --> 00:03:53,520 Sean Aylmer: expectation was about 17 or 18, 000 new jobs. This has come 75 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:57,210 Sean Aylmer: in at 76,000 new jobs. No one is... I mean, maybe 76 00:03:57,210 --> 00:04:00,300 Sean Aylmer: people have a model to predict this, but it's kind 77 00:04:00,300 --> 00:04:02,309 Sean Aylmer: of a bit thumb in the air and see what 78 00:04:02,309 --> 00:04:05,219 Sean Aylmer: happens. And particularly employment numbers, because they go up and 79 00:04:05,219 --> 00:04:07,679 Sean Aylmer: down and they get revised, that type of thing. That's 80 00:04:07,679 --> 00:04:09,390 Sean Aylmer: kind of why I mentioned the three months, the 0. 3% each 81 00:04:10,889 --> 00:04:12,690 Sean Aylmer: in the past three months, because it is actually better 82 00:04:12,690 --> 00:04:16,650 Sean Aylmer: to look at the trend rather than the monthly numbers. Even 83 00:04:16,650 --> 00:04:19,830 Sean Aylmer: looking at the trend, the market probably isn't as hot 84 00:04:19,830 --> 00:04:22,589 Sean Aylmer: as it was, but it's still pretty hot. So I 85 00:04:22,589 --> 00:04:24,570 Sean Aylmer: don't know whether I've really answered your question there because 86 00:04:24,570 --> 00:04:27,389 Sean Aylmer: it's a fair question, but actually getting an exact number, 87 00:04:27,389 --> 00:04:30,239 Sean Aylmer: I mean, very few people ever actually pick the exact 88 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,610 Sean Aylmer: number, so you're better looking at the trend. 89 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,080 Michael Thompson: Okay. But all of the other information then that we 90 00:04:37,350 --> 00:04:40,410 Michael Thompson: have seen, you mentioned then that we had business hiring 91 00:04:40,410 --> 00:04:44,219 Michael Thompson: intentions, but we've also seen that the broader business confidence, 92 00:04:44,610 --> 00:04:45,960 Michael Thompson: which was dropping. 93 00:04:46,500 --> 00:04:46,680 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 94 00:04:47,250 --> 00:04:49,529 Michael Thompson: You would expect then that there would not be as 95 00:04:49,529 --> 00:04:52,020 Michael Thompson: many people being employed in coming months based on that. 96 00:04:53,250 --> 00:04:57,210 Sean Aylmer: You tend to get jobs growth anyway, but you are 97 00:04:57,210 --> 00:05:00,029 Sean Aylmer: right in as much as the pace of jobs growth 98 00:05:00,330 --> 00:05:02,729 Sean Aylmer: won't be as great when you don't have as many 99 00:05:02,730 --> 00:05:05,488 Sean Aylmer: job ads out there or hiring intentions are falling. So 100 00:05:05,490 --> 00:05:06,420 Sean Aylmer: yes, that's correct. 101 00:05:06,450 --> 00:05:09,720 Michael Thompson: Okay. All right. Look, can you actually hear the cogs 102 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:13,589 Michael Thompson: turning just trying to process this? Because every month we 103 00:05:13,589 --> 00:05:16,169 Michael Thompson: go through this and every month there's this new set 104 00:05:16,170 --> 00:05:18,659 Michael Thompson: of data and I think I was actually genuinely a 105 00:05:18,660 --> 00:05:23,250 Michael Thompson: bit surprised by how many jobs there were. And look, if 106 00:05:23,250 --> 00:05:27,720 Michael Thompson: I'm surprised, Sean, then the next logical question is what 107 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:28,919 Michael Thompson: will the Reserve Bank think? 108 00:05:29,670 --> 00:05:32,370 Sean Aylmer: I bet they were surprised. I mean, they'll be worried about wages 109 00:05:32,370 --> 00:05:36,178 Sean Aylmer: growth. Low unemployment tends to push up wages and there's 110 00:05:36,178 --> 00:05:39,210 Sean Aylmer: already plenty of pressure in that department given the recent 111 00:05:39,210 --> 00:05:43,320 Sean Aylmer: Fair Work Commission decision on award wages. Wages put pressure 112 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,779 Sean Aylmer: on inflation. It's as simple as that. So more rate 113 00:05:45,779 --> 00:05:51,450 Sean Aylmer: hikes are likely with economists forecasting somewhere between one and 114 00:05:51,450 --> 00:05:55,440 Sean Aylmer: four 25 basis point hikes over the rest of this 115 00:05:55,529 --> 00:05:58,589 Sean Aylmer: year. Now I think most people think that there'll be 116 00:05:58,589 --> 00:06:03,390 Sean Aylmer: one next month. This is the Economist, at least. Whether 117 00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:05,310 Sean Aylmer: they think there'll be a lot more really depends on 118 00:06:05,310 --> 00:06:08,400 Sean Aylmer: the individual. The most recent economic growth figures show that 119 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,969 Sean Aylmer: the economy is definitely slowing and the fear is that 120 00:06:11,969 --> 00:06:14,698 Sean Aylmer: more rate rises pushes the economy into a recession. That 121 00:06:14,700 --> 00:06:18,840 Sean Aylmer: is definitely a possibility. Mind you, while people have jobs 122 00:06:18,930 --> 00:06:20,040 Sean Aylmer: that seems less likely. 123 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,960 Michael Thompson: Okay. How did local markets, Sean, respond to the news yesterday? 124 00:06:25,500 --> 00:06:28,409 Sean Aylmer: Well, bond markets are the ones that move mostly on 125 00:06:28,410 --> 00:06:31,438 Sean Aylmer: interest rates and they immediately sold off, which basically pushes 126 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:35,099 Sean Aylmer: market interest rates higher. If you look at that, traders 127 00:06:35,100 --> 00:06:38,460 Sean Aylmer: now think there's a 60 to 65% chance of a 25 basis 128 00:06:38,460 --> 00:06:42,990 Sean Aylmer: point hike in July. Market economists think the likelihood is 129 00:06:42,990 --> 00:06:46,980 Sean Aylmer: greater. The Aussie dollar pushback above 68 US cents, Michael. 130 00:06:47,070 --> 00:06:49,440 Sean Aylmer: It had fallen earlier in the morning after the US 131 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:54,149 Sean Aylmer: Federal Reserve kept rates on hold as expected, but the 132 00:06:54,150 --> 00:06:56,700 Sean Aylmer: US Fed was much less clear about whether there will 133 00:06:56,700 --> 00:07:00,540 Sean Aylmer: be any further rate hikes. The labor force numbers, when 134 00:07:00,540 --> 00:07:03,359 Sean Aylmer: they came out, that pushed the Aussie dollar higher. On 135 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:07,440 Sean Aylmer: the share market, the S&P/ASX 200 spiked in early trading, fell 136 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,709 Sean Aylmer: ahead of the 11:30 AM announcement yesterday, and then trended 137 00:07:10,709 --> 00:07:13,290 Sean Aylmer: higher during the afternoon to finish up just a touch to 7, 138 00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:17,970 Sean Aylmer: 175 points. Healthcare stocks were the worst performers while tech 139 00:07:17,970 --> 00:07:21,329 Sean Aylmer: stocks were the best. Not a huge amount going on, 140 00:07:21,809 --> 00:07:25,799 Sean Aylmer: really. The coal companies did well, notwithstanding some negative commentary 141 00:07:25,799 --> 00:07:29,639 Sean Aylmer: around the place about prices. New Hope, Coronado, Global Resources, 142 00:07:29,639 --> 00:07:33,480 Sean Aylmer: and Whitehaven were all sharply higher. Interesting one, Australia's largest 143 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:37,200 Sean Aylmer: rail freight operator Aurizon rallied to its highest level in 144 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,840 Sean Aylmer: four months after it was upgraded by brokers. Its share 145 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,420 Sean Aylmer: price ended more than 4% higher. The best in the 146 00:07:42,420 --> 00:07:46,170 Sean Aylmer: day was insurer IAG. It was up 4. 6%. One 147 00:07:46,170 --> 00:07:48,600 Sean Aylmer: I just want to mention, property funds house Charter Hall. 148 00:07:48,930 --> 00:07:52,170 Sean Aylmer: It reported a 2. 8% fall in property values across 149 00:07:52,230 --> 00:07:56,010 Sean Aylmer: its $ 72 billion real estate empire. Now, the company said 150 00:07:56,010 --> 00:08:00,090 Sean Aylmer: that about 98% of all its properties have been independently 151 00:08:00,090 --> 00:08:03,120 Sean Aylmer: valued. We've been talking about this, particularly around the superfunds, 152 00:08:04,139 --> 00:08:09,840 Sean Aylmer: the idea that fund managers, superfunds, people like Charter Hall, 153 00:08:09,990 --> 00:08:12,990 Sean Aylmer: need to make sure that on their books, the value 154 00:08:12,990 --> 00:08:16,740 Sean Aylmer: of the assets, the buildings, are appropriate as opposed to 155 00:08:16,740 --> 00:08:20,309 Sean Aylmer: inflated because prices have come down during COVID. Anyway, that's 156 00:08:20,309 --> 00:08:23,339 Sean Aylmer: what Charter Hall did yesterday. It said that its property 157 00:08:23,340 --> 00:08:24,360 Sean Aylmer: values were down only 3%. 158 00:08:25,260 --> 00:08:27,480 Michael Thompson: So that actually provides a bit of reassurance then. 159 00:08:27,990 --> 00:08:30,720 Sean Aylmer: It does, and I mean, I'm not here to question 160 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,150 Sean Aylmer: Charter Hall. One of the big issues when you revalue 161 00:08:33,150 --> 00:08:37,049 Sean Aylmer: is you base it off recent sales and the challenging 162 00:08:37,049 --> 00:08:39,929 Sean Aylmer: commercial properties that no one's selling, because prices are lower 163 00:08:39,929 --> 00:08:42,208 Sean Aylmer: so why would you sell? You don't need to. So 164 00:08:42,208 --> 00:08:45,240 Sean Aylmer: the most recent sales might not be last week. It 165 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,699 Sean Aylmer: actually might be last year or two years ago. So 166 00:08:47,700 --> 00:08:49,380 Sean Aylmer: there's still question marks around that. 167 00:08:49,590 --> 00:08:51,059 Michael Thompson: God, I'm learning a lot today, Sean. 168 00:08:53,849 --> 00:08:54,540 Sean Aylmer: I hope I'm right. 169 00:08:54,540 --> 00:08:57,420 Michael Thompson: Me too. Well either way, you're taking us on a 170 00:08:57,420 --> 00:09:02,010 Michael Thompson: journey, that's for sure. International markets. What else is going on? 171 00:09:02,460 --> 00:09:04,978 Sean Aylmer: Well, it was all about the US Fed's decision to 172 00:09:04,980 --> 00:09:07,950 Sean Aylmer: pause on interest rates. The first pause in 15 months. 173 00:09:08,190 --> 00:09:11,700 Sean Aylmer: That wasn't unexpected, but market watches said the commentary was 174 00:09:11,700 --> 00:09:16,770 Sean Aylmer: less supportive of further rate rises. Chair Jerome Powell said 175 00:09:16,770 --> 00:09:19,380 Sean Aylmer: it may make sense for rates to move higher at 176 00:09:19,380 --> 00:09:22,978 Sean Aylmer: a more moderate pace. He said while speed was important 177 00:09:22,980 --> 00:09:25,949 Sean Aylmer: last year, it's now reasonable to go slower and there 178 00:09:25,950 --> 00:09:29,309 Sean Aylmer: are benefits to moderating the pace of those hikes. Now the 179 00:09:29,309 --> 00:09:32,519 Sean Aylmer: US labor market, like the Aussie labor market, remains strong, 180 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,150 Sean Aylmer: something Powell noted, but there's just a bit less clear 181 00:09:36,150 --> 00:09:40,679 Sean Aylmer: the trajectory of rate rises in the US. Meanwhile, China's 182 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:44,280 Sean Aylmer: economic recovery weakened last month as growth in industrial output 183 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,610 Sean Aylmer: and retail sales slowed. It came as authorities took further 184 00:09:47,610 --> 00:09:50,189 Sean Aylmer: steps to lower interest rates in an effort to boost 185 00:09:50,309 --> 00:09:54,059 Sean Aylmer: the world's second- largest economy. And while we're on it, 186 00:09:54,119 --> 00:09:57,510 Sean Aylmer: New Zealand. It's officially in recession with a 0. 1% 187 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,350 Sean Aylmer: contraction in growth last quarter. That followed a 0. 7% 188 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,070 Sean Aylmer: contraction the December quarter. Of course, two consecutive quarters of 189 00:10:05,070 --> 00:10:08,790 Sean Aylmer: negative growth makes a recession. New Zealand led the world 190 00:10:08,790 --> 00:10:12,329 Sean Aylmer: in raising rates to combat the post- pandemic inflation wave. 191 00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:16,170 Sean Aylmer: Now it's leading the world in heading into a recession. 192 00:10:17,190 --> 00:10:20,399 Sean Aylmer: And just finally on commodity markets, oil is unchanged, gold 193 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,160 Sean Aylmer: is lower, and iron ore prices remain strong. 194 00:10:23,849 --> 00:10:25,139 Michael Thompson: Sean, I think you need a cup of tea. 195 00:10:25,439 --> 00:10:25,470 Sean Aylmer: Oh, I do. 196 00:10:25,470 --> 00:10:27,390 Michael Thompson: That's a big start to the show. 197 00:10:27,780 --> 00:10:28,349 Sean Aylmer: Sure is. 198 00:10:28,350 --> 00:10:29,848 Michael Thompson: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of 199 00:10:29,850 --> 00:10:39,689 Michael Thompson: the day's business news. Sean, opposition leader Peter Dutton, yesterday 200 00:10:39,690 --> 00:10:43,348 Michael Thompson: suspended Liberal Senator David Van from the party room after 201 00:10:43,349 --> 00:10:48,449 Michael Thompson: further allegations about his behavior emerged. That followed Wednesday's claim 202 00:10:48,449 --> 00:10:51,480 Michael Thompson: in parliament by Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe that he had 203 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:55,800 Michael Thompson: harassed and sexually assaulted her, claims she later withdrew and 204 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,110 Michael Thompson: Van rejected saying they were a lie. 205 00:10:59,340 --> 00:11:03,089 Sean Aylmer: Peter Dutton yesterday afternoon said there had been further allegations 206 00:11:03,089 --> 00:11:06,900 Sean Aylmer: about Senator Van and Dutton had advised him of his 207 00:11:06,900 --> 00:11:09,720 Sean Aylmer: decision that he should no longer sit in the Liberal 208 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:13,530 Sean Aylmer: party room. It means he's on the crossbenches. Senator Van 209 00:11:13,530 --> 00:11:18,300 Sean Aylmer: has strenuously denied Senator Thorpe's allegations, but agreed to leave 210 00:11:18,300 --> 00:11:22,019 Sean Aylmer: the party room to minimize damage to the opposition. Dutton 211 00:11:22,020 --> 00:11:25,170 Sean Aylmer: himself said that the decision for him to leave the 212 00:11:25,170 --> 00:11:27,059 Sean Aylmer: party room or ask him to leave the party room 213 00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:30,900 Sean Aylmer: certainly bore no consequence in terms of what his view 214 00:11:30,900 --> 00:11:34,740 Sean Aylmer: of Senator Van and the allegations were. Yesterday, Senator Thorpe 215 00:11:34,740 --> 00:11:37,889 Sean Aylmer: in the Senate spoke of how she had faced sexual 216 00:11:37,889 --> 00:11:43,500 Sean Aylmer: comments and had been inappropriately propositioned in corridors and stairwells 217 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,819 Sean Aylmer: of Parliament House in a very emotional speech. She said Senator 218 00:11:47,820 --> 00:11:50,790 Sean Aylmer: Van was among a number of men in Parliament who 219 00:11:50,790 --> 00:11:54,540 Sean Aylmer: made her feel unsafe in the building. She said, and 220 00:11:54,540 --> 00:11:59,610 Sean Aylmer: I quote, " I experienced sexual comments and was inappropriately propositioned 221 00:11:59,670 --> 00:12:03,810 Sean Aylmer: by powerful men. One man followed me and cornered me 222 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,170 Sean Aylmer: in a stairwell. There are different understandings of what amounts 223 00:12:07,170 --> 00:12:11,010 Sean Aylmer: to sexual assault and what I experienced has been being 224 00:12:11,010 --> 00:12:15,480 Sean Aylmer: followed, aggressively propositioned, and inappropriately touched." 225 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:20,550 Michael Thompson: All right. Very serious story there, Sean. Now, Australia experienced 226 00:12:20,610 --> 00:12:24,390 Michael Thompson: the biggest jump in population ever last year following the 227 00:12:24,390 --> 00:12:27,030 Michael Thompson: end of COVID, and despite a rise in the number 228 00:12:27,030 --> 00:12:29,310 Michael Thompson: of deaths and a drop off in births. 229 00:12:29,849 --> 00:12:34,170 Sean Aylmer: The country's population expanded by almost 500,000 people last year, 230 00:12:34,170 --> 00:12:39,420 Sean Aylmer: taking the total number to 26.27 million according to the 231 00:12:39,420 --> 00:12:42,179 Sean Aylmer: Bureau of Statistics. Now, migration was the main reason for 232 00:12:42,179 --> 00:12:47,458 Sean Aylmer: the rise. Australia recorded a net gain of 387,700 people. 233 00:12:47,759 --> 00:12:53,518 Sean Aylmer: Almost 620,000 people migrated to Australia while 233,000 left the 234 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,420 Sean Aylmer: country. High immigration numbers are expected to continue as more 235 00:12:57,420 --> 00:13:01,140 Sean Aylmer: students come into the country. The overall population growth was 1. 236 00:13:01,530 --> 00:13:06,059 Sean Aylmer: 93%. That was the highest since 2008. Well, the actual 237 00:13:06,059 --> 00:13:12,510 Sean Aylmer: number, 497,756, was the highest annual intake ever. There was 238 00:13:12,540 --> 00:13:17,189 Sean Aylmer: also a surge in deaths last year up from 165,000 pre- 239 00:13:17,190 --> 00:13:22,980 Sean Aylmer: COVID to 191, 000. The ABS put that in part down 240 00:13:22,980 --> 00:13:26,759 Sean Aylmer: to COVID- related illnesses, particularly the increase. And the number 241 00:13:26,759 --> 00:13:30,628 Sean Aylmer: of births was down 14, 500 on the year before 242 00:13:30,629 --> 00:13:32,640 Sean Aylmer: to just under 301, 000. 243 00:13:32,910 --> 00:13:36,120 Michael Thompson: Okay, I'm just doing the maths here, Sean. So this 244 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,550 Michael Thompson: is for 2022, the calendar year. 245 00:13:38,639 --> 00:13:39,359 Sean Aylmer: Yes. 246 00:13:39,540 --> 00:13:44,160 Michael Thompson: Which means then that 2021, which was a lockdown year, 247 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:45,959 Michael Thompson: a lot of lockdowns still in that year- 248 00:13:46,199 --> 00:13:48,029 Sean Aylmer: I know where you're going here. I know where you're 249 00:13:48,029 --> 00:13:48,901 Sean Aylmer: going. I don't think you should, but go. 250 00:13:48,901 --> 00:13:52,260 Michael Thompson: That it wasn't the lockdown baby boom that many people expected. 251 00:13:52,350 --> 00:13:52,410 Sean Aylmer: No. 252 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,470 Michael Thompson: Which means, clearly there was too much good stuff on 253 00:13:55,470 --> 00:13:56,490 Michael Thompson: Netflix instead. 254 00:13:56,910 --> 00:14:00,719 Sean Aylmer: That was it. Or the actual reason, people were worried 255 00:14:00,719 --> 00:14:02,639 Sean Aylmer: about the economy. People don't have kids when they're worried 256 00:14:02,639 --> 00:14:03,240 Sean Aylmer: about the economy. 257 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:04,950 Michael Thompson: I definitely prefer my reason. 258 00:14:05,458 --> 00:14:07,920 Sean Aylmer: Yes, okay. Netflix. Ted Lasso, come on down. 259 00:14:08,370 --> 00:14:12,179 Michael Thompson: Goodness me. All right. Sean, Australia's richest person, Gina Rinehart, 260 00:14:12,179 --> 00:14:14,820 Michael Thompson: has done a deal to buy up to a 51% 261 00:14:14,820 --> 00:14:18,210 Michael Thompson: stake in the Mount Bevan lithium project in Western Australia. 262 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,690 Michael Thompson: That's a project that targets supplying Indian buyers. 263 00:14:22,260 --> 00:14:25,650 Sean Aylmer: Rinehart held a one- on- one meeting with Narendra Modi, 264 00:14:25,650 --> 00:14:28,170 Sean Aylmer: the prime minister of India, last month when he was 265 00:14:28,170 --> 00:14:31,500 Sean Aylmer: out visiting, and looks like it may well pay dividends. 266 00:14:31,830 --> 00:14:36,269 Sean Aylmer: Thus far, Rinehart hasn't really involved herself in lithium mining. 267 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:40,139 Sean Aylmer: Mostly it's about iron ore and agricultural property for Gina, 268 00:14:40,590 --> 00:14:44,700 Sean Aylmer: but she has now bought a small stake in the 269 00:14:44,700 --> 00:14:47,190 Sean Aylmer: Mount Bevan project and yesterday that mine did a deal 270 00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:50,130 Sean Aylmer: to sell most of the lithium it produces to India 271 00:14:50,130 --> 00:14:54,509 Sean Aylmer: to boost that country's critical mineral supply chain. Rinehart has 272 00:14:54,509 --> 00:14:57,900 Sean Aylmer: the option to take her stake to 51% if certain 273 00:14:57,900 --> 00:15:00,990 Sean Aylmer: exploration and development milestones are hit. It's going to be 274 00:15:00,990 --> 00:15:03,630 Sean Aylmer: really interesting just to see how this one develops. 275 00:15:04,020 --> 00:15:08,130 Michael Thompson: Home Affairs and Cybersecurity Minister Clare O'Neill and Prime Minister 276 00:15:08,130 --> 00:15:12,209 Michael Thompson: Anthony Albanese yesterday announced a new bill, Sean, to block 277 00:15:12,210 --> 00:15:15,750 Michael Thompson: a proposed second Russian embassy. This is interesting. 278 00:15:16,139 --> 00:15:19,860 Sean Aylmer: Yes. O'Neil said the bill identifies a specific piece of 279 00:15:19,860 --> 00:15:22,530 Sean Aylmer: land in Canberra which currently has a lease agreement between 280 00:15:22,530 --> 00:15:26,519 Sean Aylmer: the National Capital Authority and the Russian Federation. Now, the 281 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:31,200 Sean Aylmer: bill terminates that lease agreement. Back in May, a federal 282 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,920 Sean Aylmer: court decision found that the National Capital Authority's eviction of 283 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:39,750 Sean Aylmer: the Russian Federation from the site was invalid, hence we 284 00:15:39,750 --> 00:15:43,710 Sean Aylmer: have legislation about it. O'Neil said the principal problem with 285 00:15:43,710 --> 00:15:48,270 Sean Aylmer: the proposed second Russian embassy in Canberra is its location 286 00:15:48,570 --> 00:15:51,389 Sean Aylmer: directly adjacent to Parliament House, and the government has received 287 00:15:51,389 --> 00:15:54,660 Sean Aylmer: advice that this is a threat to national security. 288 00:15:55,350 --> 00:15:59,160 Michael Thompson: Australian Vintage, the maker of top- selling wine McGuigan, has 289 00:15:59,220 --> 00:16:02,309 Michael Thompson: warned its annual profit as set to almost halve as 290 00:16:02,309 --> 00:16:04,739 Michael Thompson: it faces a big jump in cost that it hasn't 291 00:16:04,740 --> 00:16:06,390 Michael Thompson: been able to pass on to consumers. 292 00:16:07,590 --> 00:16:09,239 Sean Aylmer: I'm not sure whether to be happy or sad about this story. I 293 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,279 Sean Aylmer: mean, I want Australian Vintage to do well, but I 294 00:16:11,279 --> 00:16:12,960 Sean Aylmer: like the fact that we're not paying more for wine. 295 00:16:13,980 --> 00:16:15,450 Michael Thompson: You're always finding a silver lining. 296 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,190 Sean Aylmer: That's right. That's right. It's the latest discretionary retailer to 297 00:16:20,190 --> 00:16:23,550 Sean Aylmer: demonstrate a slowdown in the spending habits of consumers. Australian 298 00:16:23,550 --> 00:16:27,870 Sean Aylmer: Vintage yesterday said lower vintage and throughput caused partly by 299 00:16:27,870 --> 00:16:31,440 Sean Aylmer: poor weather conditions would force write- offs at its wineries. 300 00:16:31,740 --> 00:16:35,400 Sean Aylmer: As corporate debt remains high at the company, Australian Vintage 301 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,699 Sean Aylmer: will also suspend future dividend payments. Now last month, Treasury 302 00:16:38,700 --> 00:16:41,459 Sean Aylmer: Wines, maker of Penfolds, Wolf Blass, and Lindemans issued a 303 00:16:41,460 --> 00:16:44,369 Sean Aylmer: profit warning off the back of slower sales and weaker 304 00:16:44,370 --> 00:16:47,549 Sean Aylmer: consumer sentiment. We've seen plenty of other retailers do so 305 00:16:47,549 --> 00:16:52,230 Sean Aylmer: recently. Domino's Pizza, Michael Hill Jewelers, Maggie Beer Foods, Universal 306 00:16:52,230 --> 00:16:56,099 Sean Aylmer: Store, Baby Bunting, even West Farmers. So the top of 307 00:16:56,099 --> 00:16:59,639 Sean Aylmer: this show, we talked about very strong labor market potential 308 00:16:59,639 --> 00:17:02,549 Sean Aylmer: for rising interest rates. The real economy on the street, 309 00:17:02,549 --> 00:17:05,070 Sean Aylmer: there is plenty of evidence that there's a big slowdown 310 00:17:05,070 --> 00:17:05,520 Sean Aylmer: going on. 311 00:17:05,850 --> 00:17:10,740 Michael Thompson: And finally, Sean, the liquidators of collapsed builder Porter Davis 312 00:17:10,740 --> 00:17:15,030 Michael Thompson: Homes Group says that unsecured creditors owed more than $ 71 313 00:17:15,030 --> 00:17:19,020 Michael Thompson: million. Unlikely to be paid, but the Commonwealth Bank will 314 00:17:19,020 --> 00:17:22,050 Michael Thompson: probably get the almost $ 33 million that it's owed. 315 00:17:22,740 --> 00:17:26,188 Sean Aylmer: The findings mean that tradies and subbies that were hit by the company 316 00:17:26,190 --> 00:17:29,850 Sean Aylmer: failure will be left empty- handed and not all customers 317 00:17:29,850 --> 00:17:31,738 Sean Aylmer: will be covered as most of the funds in the $ 318 00:17:31,740 --> 00:17:36,658 Sean Aylmer: 147 million collapse are not likely to be recovered. The Melbourne- 319 00:17:36,660 --> 00:17:39,148 Sean Aylmer: based home builder fell into the hands of liquidators grant 320 00:17:39,150 --> 00:17:43,260 Sean Aylmer: Thornton in March. There was about 1, 700 projects in limbo 321 00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:47,730 Sean Aylmer: in Victoria and Queensland. It had signed another 779 contracts, 322 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,760 Sean Aylmer: according to a report in the Australian. The Porter Davis 323 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,129 Sean Aylmer: home building empire is now being broken up, with builders 324 00:17:53,130 --> 00:17:55,710 Sean Aylmer: taking on jobs they believe can be turned into profitable 325 00:17:55,710 --> 00:17:58,500 Sean Aylmer: work at a time when the industry faces a crisis 326 00:17:58,500 --> 00:18:00,749 Sean Aylmer: from rising costs and financial pressure. 327 00:18:01,109 --> 00:18:04,230 Michael Thompson: All right, now turning to international news, Sean. Big story. 328 00:18:04,230 --> 00:18:07,710 Michael Thompson: Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be found to 329 00:18:07,710 --> 00:18:11,910 Michael Thompson: have committed multiple contempts of parliament in a report by 330 00:18:11,910 --> 00:18:15,179 Michael Thompson: MPs into his conduct as prime minister during the Partygate 331 00:18:15,179 --> 00:18:17,280 Michael Thompson: scandal. We talked a lot about that at the time. 332 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,580 Sean Aylmer: Sure did. According to a report in the Financial Times, 333 00:18:20,970 --> 00:18:25,290 Sean Aylmer: Johnson had made a number of contempts of parliament, including 334 00:18:25,290 --> 00:18:28,138 Sean Aylmer: being found to have misled MPs and statements he made 335 00:18:28,138 --> 00:18:31,980 Sean Aylmer: in the comments about Downing Street parties held during Coronavirus 336 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,760 Sean Aylmer: lockdowns. The committee has been looking into whether Johnson deliberately 337 00:18:35,879 --> 00:18:39,690 Sean Aylmer: misled parliament after stating while prime minister that COVID-19 rules 338 00:18:39,690 --> 00:18:42,480 Sean Aylmer: were followed at all times. Now, of course, that followed 339 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,900 Sean Aylmer: media reports of Number 10 gatherings held during the pandemic. 340 00:18:46,530 --> 00:18:49,710 Sean Aylmer: Johnson announced on Friday he was immediately stepping down as 341 00:18:49,710 --> 00:18:53,429 Sean Aylmer: a Conservative MP. He accused the cross- party committee of 342 00:18:53,430 --> 00:18:57,420 Sean Aylmer: behaving like a kangaroo court engaged in a political hit 343 00:18:57,420 --> 00:19:01,050 Sean Aylmer: job against him. While the committee does have power to 344 00:19:01,050 --> 00:19:06,540 Sean Aylmer: recommend sanctions against MPs, including suspension from Commons, Johnson's decision 345 00:19:06,540 --> 00:19:09,240 Sean Aylmer: to quit pretty much preempts such an outcome. 346 00:19:09,719 --> 00:19:11,579 Michael Thompson: All right. Now up next is the Fear & Greed Daily 347 00:19:11,580 --> 00:19:15,720 Michael Thompson: Interview with Jye Smith from brand agency Doublestar Co. 348 00:19:16,350 --> 00:19:19,050 Sean Aylmer: All about brands, what they can do for you, how 349 00:19:19,050 --> 00:19:21,898 Sean Aylmer: you can develop a good one particularly, and all in 350 00:19:21,900 --> 00:19:23,250 Sean Aylmer: plain English, as we said at the top of the 351 00:19:23,250 --> 00:19:24,599 Sean Aylmer: show. Well worth a listen, this one. 352 00:19:24,599 --> 00:19:26,040 Michael Thompson: Yeah, sure is. It's coming up next in the Fear & 353 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,609 Michael Thompson: Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at fearandgreed.com.au. Very 354 00:19:29,609 --> 00:19:32,100 Michael Thompson: quickly, Sean, remember yesterday we were talking about Maggie Beer 355 00:19:32,100 --> 00:19:35,340 Michael Thompson: and her expansion into garden implements and all that kind 356 00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:35,670 Michael Thompson: of thing. 357 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:36,180 Sean Aylmer: Mm- hmm. 358 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,329 Michael Thompson: And you went on for a bit about how much 359 00:19:39,330 --> 00:19:40,408 Michael Thompson: you love wooden spoons. 360 00:19:40,500 --> 00:19:41,369 Sean Aylmer: Went on for a bit. 361 00:19:41,369 --> 00:19:41,850 Michael Thompson: Go on. 362 00:19:41,910 --> 00:19:42,541 Sean Aylmer: Yes, yes, yes. 363 00:19:42,541 --> 00:19:45,150 Michael Thompson: And about how wooden spoons have never changed, and I 364 00:19:45,150 --> 00:19:48,300 Michael Thompson: said they're outdated and that silicon tongs and things are 365 00:19:48,330 --> 00:19:50,369 Michael Thompson: just so much more better. 366 00:19:51,090 --> 00:19:51,510 Sean Aylmer: More better. Yeah. 367 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:57,059 Michael Thompson: Yeah. Well, Wendy wrote to us via LinkedIn and she said, " 368 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,320 Michael Thompson: Hi guys, just listened to today's episode and you mentioned 369 00:20:01,349 --> 00:20:04,019 Michael Thompson: that silicon tools in the kitchen are the best. But 370 00:20:04,020 --> 00:20:07,590 Michael Thompson: from personal experience, I counter your comment." I feel like 371 00:20:07,590 --> 00:20:10,440 Michael Thompson: this is very much targeted towards me. " I have had 372 00:20:10,470 --> 00:20:13,560 Michael Thompson: silicon tongs washed in the dishwasher, and after a few 373 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,230 Michael Thompson: times of washing, you'll smell the detergent used on your 374 00:20:16,230 --> 00:20:18,448 Michael Thompson: tongs and also on the food that you use the 375 00:20:18,450 --> 00:20:22,469 Michael Thompson: tongs to grab with." So therefore, I suppose I withdraw 376 00:20:22,469 --> 00:20:25,920 Michael Thompson: my comments that silicon tongs and silicon kitchen implements are 377 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:26,880 Michael Thompson: better than wooden spoons. 378 00:20:27,450 --> 00:20:30,720 Sean Aylmer: Well, yeah, I mean, I don't want to say I was right, but Michael, 379 00:20:31,230 --> 00:20:31,770 Sean Aylmer: I was right. 380 00:20:32,070 --> 00:20:35,400 Michael Thompson: Yes. Well, 2, 000 years of history for the wooden 381 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,148 Michael Thompson: spoon clearly isn't wrong. All right, thank you very much, Sean. 382 00:20:39,599 --> 00:20:40,289 Sean Aylmer: Thank you, Michael. 383 00:20:40,350 --> 00:20:43,648 Michael Thompson: It's Friday the 16th of June, 2023. Make sure you're 384 00:20:43,650 --> 00:20:47,490 Michael Thompson: following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, Twitter, 385 00:20:47,490 --> 00:20:50,430 Michael Thompson: and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear & Greed. 386 00:20:50,730 --> 00:20:51,360 Michael Thompson: Have a great day.