WEBVTT - A 'rathole of retaliation': Trump, Iran and what happens next 0:00:01.200 --> 0:00:10.559 From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM. 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.680 America's attacks on Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend mark 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.400 a terrifying turning point. Donald Trump has taken the US 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:21.520 into direct conflict with Iran and risked what the UN 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:25.840 Secretary General is calling a rat hole of retaliation. In 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:27.880 an address at the Pentagon, the U s Secretary of 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.240 Defense Pete Hegseth claimed Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated, 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.559 but questions remain about the extent of the damage and 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:40.280 whether the attack will only strengthen Iran's resolve to rebuild. Today. 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:44.120 Author of the Permanent Crisis, Iran's Nuclear Trajectory and defense 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:47.239 editor at The Economists, Shashek Joshi on what Iran will 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:50.400 do next and what Donald Trump, calling for regime change 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:59.200 says about how far we are from peace. It's Tuesday, 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:00.000 June twenty four. 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:07.959 Last night, on President Trump's orders, US Central Command conducted 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.800 a precision strike in the middle of the night against 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:16.800 three nuclear facilities in Iran, for Doeaux, Natan's, and Svahan 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:21.839 in order to destroy or severely degrade Iran's nuclear program. 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:25.000 Shishang, thank you for speaking with me. The United States 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:28.120 Secretary for Defense Pete Hegseth said in a press conference 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:33.240 at the Pentagon that Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated. 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.560 Thanks to President Trump's bold and visionary leadership and his 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:42.000 commitment to peace through strength. Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated. 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:45.360 Is that true? We don't know. We know that America 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.400 has dropped some of the very biggest bombs in its 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.840 arsenal on this mountain side in Four Daux, and we 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:55.080 can have confidence that that's probably caused damage to any 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:59.360 of the centrifuge machines inside the facility, which are typically 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:02.320 very very centif to any kind of disruption or vibration, 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.160 and obviously, dropping a thirty thousand bomb on a mountain 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.560 causes more than a little bit of vibration. We also 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.920 know that America struck Esfahan and Tans to other nuclear 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:16.400 sites where Iran has been conversing uranium into different forms 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.000 in a way that you might need for a weapon 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:21.240 down the line. But and there's a very big butt. 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:24.639 We don't know exactly how much damage has been done 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.160 to Four Dough. Even the Iranians may not be aware 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.160 of it, because they may not be able to enter 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:31.519 the facility safely, given all the rubble, given all the 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:36.000 contamination that may be inside. We don't know as well 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:41.320 where exactly Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium is. That 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:44.320 is uranium enrich to about sixty percent, which is a 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:47.320 very very short distance from weapons grade. It used to 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.799 be stored at Esfahan, where it was inspected by the 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:55.520 International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA no longer has any 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:59.520 visibility into that stockpile. Iran said it has moved some 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.600 of the stocks away from facilities that are known to 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:06.000 the US and others, and in the days prior to 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:10.359 these US strikes, satellite images also showed trucks and vehicles 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:12.960 at some of these sites. So that's the problem. We 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.760 do not know if Iran's stockpile of uranium has been destroyed, 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:19.000 and if it hasn't, of course, that is a problem 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.680 that could be used as the basis for an effort 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:24.239 towards bomb in other secret clandestine sites. 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:28.040 The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterira said that the war 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:33.040 risks sinking into a rat hole of retaliation from. 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:36.920 The outset of the crisis. I have repeatedly condemned any 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:40.800 military escalation in the Middle East. The people of the 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:46.760 region cannot endure another cycle of destruction, and yet we 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:50.280 now risk descending into a ref hole of retaliation. 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.840 Iran has promised everlasting consequences to the series of attacks 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:59.200 against it, So what type of retaliation do you anticipate. 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.480 You know that Iran, for example, could attempt to close 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.760 the Strait of Hormuz, and Hormuz is a very important 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.760 waterway in the Persian Gulf. It's effectively the kind of 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.960 point at which lots of key oil traffic flows. It's 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:15.120 the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the open Sea. 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:18.920 And if Iran were place minds, for example, that could 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:23.400 cause real disruption to the energy market. However, I think 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:26.599 it's pretty important that we separate Iran's rhetoric from its 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:30.920 real situation, which is that it's deeply wounded. It is 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:34.479 lost very senior commanders, it's lost a great number of 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:37.760 its missile launchers, perhaps two thirds of them according to 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:41.239 some Israeli accounts, and the regime is afraid. It's afraid 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.680 that the regime itself may be a target of strikes 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:48.080 in the coming days, and so they will be seeking 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:50.120 to save face to sort of strike back in a 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:55.320 way that preserves their honor without provoking a huge retaliation 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:57.760 of the kind that Donald Trump has threatened. And I 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:01.480 would cast your mind back to twenty twenty when America 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:05.719 killed Cassam Sulimani, who was a very senior Irani in general, 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:10.080 and Iran responded by conducting missile strikes against a US 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:13.599 based in Iraq. But it was a very calibrated retaliation. 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:17.640 They effectively gave America noticed that it would happen. They 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:20.680 showed them where the missiles were landing, and it was 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.440 a way of showing that they had done something very 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:27.000 robust and strong without actually trying to kill very large 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:30.760 numbers of Americans. And I think that that is along 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:32.760 the lines of what you could see in the coming 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.480 days if Iran is trying to keep tensions within limits. 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:38.640 And Donald Trump made this decision to attack Iran after 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:41.039 saying that he would be considering whether or not to 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.919 do it within the next two weeks. So what was 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.120 behind that statement. Can you talk to me about the 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:51.000 calculations within his administration to misdirect the public when they 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:53.640 were ultimately obviously planning this attack. 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.599 Well, had Iran turned up to those diplomatic talks with 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:02.120 France and Germany in Geneva for the weekend and said, actually, 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:05.520 we're willing to completely dismantle our nuclear program and give up. 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:10.920 Perhaps Donald Trump would have canceled these strikes, although that's 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:14.359 difficult to say. It does look as though he was 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:19.919 using both diplomacy and his own statements about making a 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:23.719 decision within two weeks as a smokescreen to deceive Iran 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:28.200 while preparations were being made for these strikes. And the 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.239 reason preparations have to be made is because the journey 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.160 to Iran for the B two Stealth Comma, that is 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:37.120 the only plane that can carry these huge bombs. It 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:41.600 is a thirty seven hour round trip. It's enormous, and 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.000 you need refueling planes along the way to keep these 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:47.200 bombers in the air. And you also need intelligence to 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.920 be gathered about exactly what you're hitting. You know, who's 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:52.719 in the area, what's the weather like, because that affects 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:56.240 the movement of these gravity bombs dropped from these planes. 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:58.599 So that he would have been using that time to 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:02.000 prepare this attack as well as I think to prepare 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.280 US military facilities in the area to cope with any 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:10.040 subsequent retaliation, for example, evacuating families from military bases in 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:13.760 places like Bahrain and Katar. So I suspect the deception 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:18.280 was largely aimed at buying time to prepare and at 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:22.200 making American facilities more secure. And then finally there was 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:26.720 that last little feint of sending some B twos effectively 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:30.320 the wrong way. A couple of decoy B twos taking 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:33.200 off and heading west, spotted over the Pacific to make 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:34.960 it look as though they were heading in a completely 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:35.680 different direction. 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:40.560 Shank In announcing the attacks, Pete Hegseth said that Donald 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:45.440 Trump seeks peace. In your view, does this decision by 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:49.640 the US to strike Iran bring anyone any closer to peace? 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:54.600 I think, in this narrow sense that it may accelerate 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:58.840 the Israeli campaign, because the Israeli campaign has largely been 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:02.240 about destroying around nuclear program, although there have been some 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:06.120 other interest slightly stabilizing the Iranian state. And with that 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.960 in mind, because Fodeaux is now probably neutralized to some 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:14.320 large degree, and Iran's nuclear program has been weakened very substantially, 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:19.160 it makes it easier for Israel to stop the conflict. However, 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:22.880 we don't know the false scope of Iran's retaliation, and 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:26.880 if that retaliation is more expansive than I have suggested. 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:29.920 For example, if they launch a bunch of missiles at 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:32.000 a US based in the Middle East in ways it 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.760 kill marines and kill soldiers or kill airmen, that could 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:39.720 quite easily drag America straight back in to go hit 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:43.880 political targets into Iran. We don't know, And so whether 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:46.400 or not this move brings piece closer I think is 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:50.920 really dependent on the Iranian retaliation as much as anything else. 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:54.680 Coming up after the break. What America's strike on Iran 0:08:54.800 --> 0:09:02.120 says about its strategy in the Middle East? 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:03.560 Shashank. 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:07.760 The United States has adopted Israel's frame, being that these 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:12.880 attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon. 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:17.160 So has there been any intelligence or any evidence presented 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:18.080 to back that up. 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:21.320 We haven't seen clear evidence in public. We've seen claims 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:24.079 by Israel in public on the very first day of 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.880 the war that Iran was accelerating its progress towards what 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:31.760 we call weaponization, that is, elements of the bomb making process, 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:35.280 in particular that it was quite publicly racking up huge 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.240 quantities of highly enriched uranium. But it was also working. 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:42.480 They say on the neutron initiators that you need to 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.400 trigger a bomb, as well as the plastic explosives that 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:49.120 go around it, and the uranium core itself, the round 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.319 spherical bit of fissile material that goes at the very 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:55.920 heart of a bomb. But we haven't seen detailed documentation 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.600 or intelligence to support that. My colleagues at the Economist 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:04.640 have been told that Iran was taking some steps, for example, 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:09.319 about initiate a meeting of its missile forces in ways 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.560 that would help them mate a potential warhead to a 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:15.240 missile down the line, But by and large Western officials 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.000 appear to be much more skeptical of some of these claims. 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.680 And whilst they all agree Iran was doing concerning things 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:25.000 with weapons related technology, that it had not decided to 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.439 finally manufacture a bomb. And I can see no sign 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:32.199 from outside countries that they agree Iran was racing its 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:33.640 way towards that outcome at all. 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:35.920 And what does this strike on Iran say to you 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:39.280 about America's plans in the Middle East, given such a 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:43.680 large part of Trump's base is anti interventionist, and getting 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:48.760 involved in this way is indirect conflict with how Trump campaigned. 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.360 I think it shows you the problem that so many 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:53.920 administrations have had, which is, how do you keep away 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.880 from the quagmire of the Middle East when you were 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:01.280 trying desperately to try to effectively pivot to Asia and 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.079 focus on the challenge post by China. And it's a 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.880 problem that confronted Barack Obama and his pivot to Asia. 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.720 In twenty fourteen, he was dragged in to supporting the 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.439 European military campaign in Libya. It's a problem that the 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:14.720 devil Trump in his first term he had, you know, 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.959 he bombed Syria, he nearly bombed Iran. It's a problem 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:21.440 that afflicted Joe Biden, who ended up having to fire 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:24.120 at the Huthis and was pulled into the war in 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:27.360 the Middle East as well after October seventh. And I 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:29.520 think that there will be many in the Pentagon saying 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.719 we did this, We did it once. But what's imperative 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.040 now is that we do not let this become an 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:38.079 open ended campaign of the kind that we have criticized 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.920 so often in the past. And that will be fine, 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.000 But of course the thing to remember us we've discussed 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:45.600 is that the enemy gets a vote, and Iran will 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:49.520 have a determinant in the question as to whether how 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.400 bad this could eventually get and how far America may 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:54.160 against its will have to be pulled. 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.000 Back in right, and what is the longer term strategy 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.240 here if the US does have one. 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.600 I think the longer term US strategy is still to 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:04.080 try to limit its involvement in them, at least to 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:07.800 avoid getting sucked into a very high degree. I think 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.640 that they realize the military balance in the Pacific against 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:14.360 China has been eroding. They must focus on sort of 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:16.720 building up forces there. And you know, just look at 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:20.720 the munitions you're spending. They fired scores of Tomahawk land 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:25.600 attack missiles yesterday, cruise missiles. These are weapons that the 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.440 Indo Pacific Command in the Pentagon believes would be vital 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.480 for any conflict with China, and they just chewed through 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:33.480 more of them, having chewed through many others in the 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.559 campaign against the HUFIS earlier this year. So there will 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.520 be many military officers focused on the Pacific who will 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.960 have their head in their hands saying this is terrible. 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.680 So I think in the longer run, this administration is 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.559 still going to try its best to be disciplined if 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.959 it can, and to try to avoid committing itself in 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.080 a part of the world, in a region that it 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.520 feels has been effectively a graveyard for American resources and 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:58.720 lives for the last twenty five years. 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:04.240 And Trump is now talking very directly about regime change. 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:08.920 He's saying on truth Social I'll quote, it's not politically 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:13.160 correct to use the term regime change. But if the 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:17.360 current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:22.559 why wouldn't there be regime change? So my question, I suppose, 0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:25.680 is how likely is that outcome? 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:29.120 I think it's still unlikely. I think that he is 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:33.240 Donald Trump likes campaigns that are successful and strong, and 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:35.640 he didn't want this war in the first place. But 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.319 once Israel showed that it was succeeding, that appealed to him, 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:41.920 and it pulled him in. Israel is now flirting with 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.080 the idea of regime change, and that may also be 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:49.120 influencing mister Trump. But I think that his advisors will 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.960 be much more skeptical at any kind of effort at 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.880 political change than they will at what was seen as 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.760 a one off strike against Fourdeaux and other nuclear sites. 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:00.720 I think, in a way, the way we should think 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.840 about this is that Trump is holding out this political 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:07.160 threat as a way of trying to influence the current 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:11.160 debate inside Iran, in inside its leadership over how to 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.200 retaliate and how severely to do so. And what it 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.960 says is, if you kill Americans and you retaliate in 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.400 a big way, I'm willing to come back and topple 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.040 your government. But if you don't do that, I'm willing 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.480 to stay out of this. That I think is more 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.720 likely to be the signal that he's sending. Although with 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:28.840 Donald Trump, of course, you know you never quite know 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:30.120 what's happening in his head. 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.520 Shashang, thank you so much for your time. 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.240 You're very welcome. Thank you so much for having me. 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.200 Also in the news today, Foreign Minister Penny Wong says 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:53.160 the government is continuing to work with Australians stranded in 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:57.280 Iran and Israel. Senator Wong says thirteen hundred Australians in 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.280 Israel and three thousand in Iran have registered with the 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.840 Department of Foreign Affairs is wanting to leave. However, evacuation 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:07.640 attempts in Iran are particularly complicated. The Department of Foreign 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:11.160 Affairs says Australia has deployed support of the Azerbaijani border 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:15.120 to help those able to make it there, and the 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:17.920 federal government is being urged by the Greens to disclose 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:20.760 whether the satellite surveillance base at Pine Gap in the 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.040 Northern Territory was used in the US strikes against Iran. 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.760 Green's defense spokesperson David Tchubridge says Australia should take immediate 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.320 steps to distance itself from the US over the strikes, 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:36.040 describing the development as a dangerous escalation. I'm Ruby Jones. 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:37.600 This is seven am. Thanks for listening.