1 00:00:03,450 --> 00:00:06,000 Michael Thompson: Welcome to the Fear and Greed daily interview. I'm Michael 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:11,250 Michael Thompson: Thompson. With the coronavirus crisis slowly diminishing, geopolitics and the 3 00:00:11,250 --> 00:00:15,410 Michael Thompson: federal election are taking center stage. The crisis on the Russian 4 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:18,729 Michael Thompson: Ukrainian border involving the buildup of more than a hundred 5 00:00:18,730 --> 00:00:22,160 Michael Thompson: thousand troops have really put financial markets on edge in 6 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:25,120 Michael Thompson: recent weeks. And then back home, we're in the early 7 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,320 Michael Thompson: stages of really an unofficial election campaign at the moment. 8 00:00:28,350 --> 00:00:32,650 Michael Thompson: And this week, opposition leader Anthony Albanese received a somewhat 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,330 Michael Thompson: unwelcome endorsement, I suppose you'd say. China's propaganda mouthpiece The 10 00:00:37,330 --> 00:00:40,300 Michael Thompson: Global Times endorsed the Labor leader as the next prime 11 00:00:40,300 --> 00:00:44,740 Michael Thompson: minister, emphasizing what have really become pretty poor relations between 12 00:00:44,740 --> 00:00:48,510 Michael Thompson: China and the current Australian government. That came after defense 13 00:00:48,510 --> 00:00:52,070 Michael Thompson: minister Peter Dutton said Beijing has sided with Labor. There 14 00:00:52,070 --> 00:00:55,700 Michael Thompson: is plenty to discuss. Peter Hartcher is political editor and 15 00:00:55,700 --> 00:00:58,680 Michael Thompson: international editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 16 00:00:58,730 --> 00:00:59,781 Michael Thompson: Peter, welcome to Fear and Freed. 17 00:00:59,781 --> 00:01:00,210 Peter Hartcher: G'day, Michael. Good to be here. I don't know whether I feel better about the fear or the greed. 18 00:01:04,550 --> 00:01:06,380 Michael Thompson: I don't think you're supposed to feel good about either 19 00:01:06,380 --> 00:01:08,080 Michael Thompson: of them really. But let's start with fear and we'll 20 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,640 Michael Thompson: start with the situation in Europe. I think a bit 21 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:16,210 Michael Thompson: of a 101 on international relations really. What is behind 22 00:01:16,270 --> 00:01:19,789 Michael Thompson: the tension on the Russia Ukraine border? Where's all of 23 00:01:19,790 --> 00:01:20,569 Michael Thompson: this come from? 24 00:01:21,180 --> 00:01:24,410 Peter Hartcher: Well, I put the answer in two parts. First it's 25 00:01:24,569 --> 00:01:29,020 Peter Hartcher: Vladimir Putin trying to restore the Soviet Union as a 26 00:01:29,020 --> 00:01:33,450 Peter Hartcher: great power and an imperial power. He described the collapse of 27 00:01:33,510 --> 00:01:37,520 Peter Hartcher: the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 28 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,160 Peter Hartcher: 20th century. And when you think about all of the 29 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,850 Peter Hartcher: geopolitical disasters of the 20th century, including the first world 30 00:01:43,850 --> 00:01:46,569 Peter Hartcher: war, the second world war, the cold war, that's a 31 00:01:46,569 --> 00:01:51,590 Peter Hartcher: pretty remarkable categorization. So he's trying to overcome that greatest 32 00:01:51,590 --> 00:01:55,380 Peter Hartcher: disaster for Russia. That's the first part. The second part 33 00:01:55,380 --> 00:01:58,779 Peter Hartcher: is the more immediate part, and that is it already 34 00:01:58,780 --> 00:02:02,280 Peter Hartcher: had two cracks at invading and seizing part of Ukraine 35 00:02:02,410 --> 00:02:07,080 Peter Hartcher: in 2014 when he annexed Crimea and then sent his 36 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:11,950 Peter Hartcher: unmarked troops, so- called little green man, undeclared troops into 37 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,460 Peter Hartcher: Eastern Ukraine. Now he's trying to finish the job and 38 00:02:15,460 --> 00:02:19,190 Peter Hartcher: what triggered this particular buildup appears to have been the 39 00:02:19,190 --> 00:02:22,010 Peter Hartcher: fact that around the middle of the year, the Ukrainian 40 00:02:22,010 --> 00:02:27,040 Peter Hartcher: president Zelenskyy moved against the billionaire who was the main 41 00:02:27,180 --> 00:02:31,140 Peter Hartcher: agent of influence for Putin in Ukraine. He shut down 42 00:02:31,210 --> 00:02:35,680 Peter Hartcher: his three television stations and put him under house arrest. 43 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,160 Peter Hartcher: And at that point, Vladimir Putin said, " It feels like 44 00:02:39,450 --> 00:02:42,829 Peter Hartcher: Ukraine is slipping away from Russia," and that's when the 45 00:02:42,830 --> 00:02:43,470 Peter Hartcher: troop build up began. 46 00:02:44,130 --> 00:02:48,310 Michael Thompson: Okay. So then the troop buildup has been developing over 47 00:02:48,310 --> 00:02:51,730 Michael Thompson: the last few weeks and in the last 24, 48 hours, 48 00:02:51,730 --> 00:02:55,680 Michael Thompson: there has been talk of some troops being withdrawn from 49 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,250 Michael Thompson: that region. If Russia does invade though, what happens? What 50 00:02:59,250 --> 00:03:01,500 Michael Thompson: does that actually look like and who else is drawn 51 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:01,950 Michael Thompson: into that? 52 00:03:02,419 --> 00:03:06,320 Peter Hartcher: Well, just on your preamble there Michael, for Vladimir Putin 53 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,940 Peter Hartcher: to actually withdraw having, like the Grand Old Duke of 54 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,130 Peter Hartcher: York, march 10,000 men up to the top of the 55 00:03:12,130 --> 00:03:15,240 Peter Hartcher: hill, only to march them down again, would be uncharacteristic in 56 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,060 Peter Hartcher: every way. It would without having got any of the 57 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:22,040 Peter Hartcher: major concessions that he's demanding would look weak and foolish 58 00:03:22,110 --> 00:03:25,010 Peter Hartcher: for Putin. And I doubt he's going to do that. Remember, 59 00:03:25,010 --> 00:03:28,590 Peter Hartcher: his training was in the KGB. Everything he's done, he's been 60 00:03:28,780 --> 00:03:33,470 Peter Hartcher: the master of deception, gray zone warfare. And it is 61 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,140 Peter Hartcher: without concessions being granted to him, most unlikely that this 62 00:03:37,140 --> 00:03:38,750 Peter Hartcher: is going to be the end of the episode. So 63 00:03:38,750 --> 00:03:41,650 Peter Hartcher: I don't believe for a second the propaganda that they're 64 00:03:41,650 --> 00:03:45,640 Peter Hartcher: withdrawing some troops marks the end of this episode. If 65 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,170 Peter Hartcher: the Russian troops, to answer your question, do cross the 66 00:03:48,170 --> 00:03:53,200 Peter Hartcher: border into Ukraine, several things happen. First, you get a 67 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,270 Peter Hartcher: horrible human cost as the Americans have kept pointing out. 68 00:03:57,510 --> 00:04:02,120 Peter Hartcher: And that's absolutely true. It's going to take many thousands, 69 00:04:02,420 --> 00:04:07,520 Peter Hartcher: perhaps tens of thousands of deaths potentially on both sides. 70 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:12,210 Peter Hartcher: And the Chechen attempt where the Chechens tried to mount 71 00:04:12,290 --> 00:04:16,760 Peter Hartcher: a separatist movement and the Russians quashed them, that cost over 60, 72 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,989 Peter Hartcher: 000 lives. So that's the sort of human cost that 73 00:04:21,180 --> 00:04:25,710 Peter Hartcher: we're looking at. The second thing would be the economic 74 00:04:25,710 --> 00:04:29,650 Peter Hartcher: consequences you're going to see. In fact, from the Australian 75 00:04:29,650 --> 00:04:31,390 Peter Hartcher: point of view, this will be the main channel through 76 00:04:31,390 --> 00:04:34,420 Peter Hartcher: which we are affected by this because Australia will not 77 00:04:34,420 --> 00:04:37,300 Peter Hartcher: be committing any troops. Australia will not be committing any 78 00:04:37,300 --> 00:04:40,570 Peter Hartcher: direct military assistance to the defense of Ukraine, but the 79 00:04:40,570 --> 00:04:43,810 Peter Hartcher: economic channel will be in my view, quite pronounced. The 80 00:04:43,810 --> 00:04:47,170 Peter Hartcher: first thing you'll see, elevated oil and gas and energy 81 00:04:47,170 --> 00:04:51,370 Peter Hartcher: prices will be further elevated, probably quite sharply because of 82 00:04:51,370 --> 00:04:55,219 Peter Hartcher: Russia's role as a major oil and gas supplier. Those 83 00:04:55,220 --> 00:04:58,060 Peter Hartcher: suppliers across one of the major pipelines through which it 84 00:04:58,060 --> 00:05:01,150 Peter Hartcher: supplies Europe, runs through Ukraine and it's likely that that will 85 00:05:01,150 --> 00:05:04,270 Peter Hartcher: be the disrupted. And even if it's not, the Europeans 86 00:05:04,270 --> 00:05:07,520 Peter Hartcher: have said and the Americans have said that their punishment 87 00:05:07,630 --> 00:05:11,960 Peter Hartcher: of Russia for any such intrusion would be to shut 88 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,720 Peter Hartcher: down or reduce oil and gas sales, gas in particular 89 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:20,080 Peter Hartcher: to Europe. And in 2014 when they did the same 90 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:24,270 Peter Hartcher: thing, when Europe put sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine 91 00:05:24,270 --> 00:05:28,210 Peter Hartcher: on that occasion, Putin responded by cutting back Russian gas 92 00:05:28,210 --> 00:05:30,980 Peter Hartcher: suppliers to Europe. So there will be knock on effects 93 00:05:31,010 --> 00:05:33,730 Peter Hartcher: and consequences across the oil and gas markets. And the 94 00:05:33,730 --> 00:05:37,130 Peter Hartcher: second thing will be the food situation and what happens 95 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:41,700 Peter Hartcher: to soft commodities, food suppliers with Russia and Ukraine between 96 00:05:41,700 --> 00:05:48,710 Peter Hartcher: them being the exporters or the source of a third 97 00:05:48,710 --> 00:05:51,409 Peter Hartcher: of all exports of wheat and barley and a quarter 98 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,990 Peter Hartcher: of all corn exports in the world. Those prices are 99 00:05:55,330 --> 00:06:00,059 Peter Hartcher: already elevated. Once again, likely to soar, which will feed 100 00:06:00,060 --> 00:06:04,460 Peter Hartcher: into the wave of inflation that's already unleashed around the 101 00:06:04,460 --> 00:06:07,460 Peter Hartcher: world and likely accelerate the type of process that we 102 00:06:07,460 --> 00:06:12,300 Peter Hartcher: see from central banks everywhere. That would be the first 103 00:06:12,380 --> 00:06:14,730 Peter Hartcher: blush consequence of an invasion. 104 00:06:15,470 --> 00:06:18,810 Michael Thompson: And we've seen over recent weeks that financial markets around 105 00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:22,320 Michael Thompson: the world are really quite jittery, just waiting for something 106 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,729 Michael Thompson: to happen. And in terms of timing, is there any 107 00:06:25,730 --> 00:06:29,270 Michael Thompson: idea of when this could all unfold? Are we talking 108 00:06:29,270 --> 00:06:32,320 Michael Thompson: within the next week and is it really inevitable in 109 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:32,620 Michael Thompson: a way? 110 00:06:33,070 --> 00:06:38,390 Peter Hartcher: It's not inevitable, but it seems to me to be inevitable that 111 00:06:39,110 --> 00:06:42,940 Peter Hartcher: Putin will use direct force if he doesn't get the 112 00:06:42,940 --> 00:06:46,169 Peter Hartcher: major political concessions he's demanding. And the main one of 113 00:06:46,170 --> 00:06:50,279 Peter Hartcher: course being that Ukraine either relinquish its ambition to join 114 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:55,330 Peter Hartcher: NATO, the US led transatlantic alliance block, or that NATO 115 00:06:55,330 --> 00:06:57,869 Peter Hartcher: itself says it's closing the door to new members and 116 00:06:57,870 --> 00:07:01,610 Peter Hartcher: will not accept Ukraine or other countries from the Eastern 117 00:07:01,610 --> 00:07:05,290 Peter Hartcher: side of Europe as members. Now, short of that and 118 00:07:05,290 --> 00:07:09,430 Peter Hartcher: having marched his troops up into such a high point 119 00:07:09,450 --> 00:07:13,100 Peter Hartcher: of global tension, I think it's inevitable that he will 120 00:07:13,100 --> 00:07:16,610 Peter Hartcher: use them. He might not use them in a declared direct 121 00:07:16,610 --> 00:07:21,700 Peter Hartcher: sense of his badged Russian forces. He might choose to 122 00:07:21,700 --> 00:07:24,500 Peter Hartcher: use the forces as he's used them before in Ukraine, 123 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:29,180 Peter Hartcher: which is pretending that it's just local patriots in Ukraine 124 00:07:29,530 --> 00:07:33,230 Peter Hartcher: taking military action within Ukraine's borders. When in fact, it's 125 00:07:33,230 --> 00:07:39,080 Peter Hartcher: Russian troops on leave or demobilized Russian troops in unmarked 126 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:43,820 Peter Hartcher: uniforms using Russian material and weapons. One way or another, 127 00:07:44,030 --> 00:07:46,610 Peter Hartcher: if he doesn't get the concessions, I can't see him 128 00:07:46,870 --> 00:07:51,360 Peter Hartcher: failing to use force either badged and overt or unbadged 129 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:52,340 Peter Hartcher: and covert. 130 00:07:52,340 --> 00:07:54,720 Michael Thompson: Stay with me Peter, will be back in a moment. 131 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,290 Michael Thompson: My guest this morning is Peter Hartcher, political editor and 132 00:08:02,290 --> 00:08:05,170 Michael Thompson: international editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 133 00:08:05,540 --> 00:08:08,150 Michael Thompson: Now just broadening it out slightly. The leaders of Russia 134 00:08:08,150 --> 00:08:12,070 Michael Thompson: and China did meet recently and they declared in a 135 00:08:12,070 --> 00:08:16,450 Michael Thompson: couple of somewhat ominous quotes that the friendship between their 136 00:08:16,450 --> 00:08:20,100 Michael Thompson: two states has no limits and there are no forbidden 137 00:08:20,100 --> 00:08:24,300 Michael Thompson: areas of cooperation. Is it slightly surprising that Russia and 138 00:08:24,300 --> 00:08:28,350 Michael Thompson: China are now becoming so tight when they are really 139 00:08:28,350 --> 00:08:30,540 Michael Thompson: the two great competing communist nations? 140 00:08:31,060 --> 00:08:35,510 Peter Hartcher: Well, they were for decades, but what we see coalescing 141 00:08:35,510 --> 00:08:37,710 Peter Hartcher: now is, as you say, with their so called no 142 00:08:37,710 --> 00:08:40,500 Peter Hartcher: limits agreement, which was accompanied by a five and a 143 00:08:40,500 --> 00:08:46,030 Peter Hartcher: half thousand word communiqué just last week, is a new, 144 00:08:46,050 --> 00:08:49,439 Peter Hartcher: not so much an alliance. In fact, it's certainly not 145 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,490 Peter Hartcher: a military alliance in the traditional sense because it commits 146 00:08:52,490 --> 00:08:56,559 Peter Hartcher: neither to any military action to support the other. So 147 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,110 Peter Hartcher: it's not an alliance in that sense. But it is a partnership of 148 00:08:59,110 --> 00:09:04,150 Peter Hartcher: convenience. And the main line of that cooperation of that 149 00:09:04,150 --> 00:09:08,949 Peter Hartcher: partnership of convenience is what Xi Jinping calls, the moment 150 00:09:09,290 --> 00:09:14,200 Peter Hartcher: of opportunity, strategic opportunity. And that is simply code for 151 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,130 Peter Hartcher: saying America is weak. America is vulnerable. The West is 152 00:09:18,300 --> 00:09:23,000 Peter Hartcher: confused and directionless. In another quote from Xi Jinping, " The 153 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,760 Peter Hartcher: East is rising. The West is declining." And Xi Jinping 154 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,940 Peter Hartcher: sees this as his moment to capitalize on Western, and 155 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:36,620 Peter Hartcher: particularly American disarray. That happens to coincide with Vladimir Putin's 156 00:09:36,790 --> 00:09:41,530 Peter Hartcher: own ambitions to extend Russia's sphere of influence. The two 157 00:09:41,530 --> 00:09:44,740 Peter Hartcher: of them are cooperating along those lines. Have long, if 158 00:09:44,740 --> 00:09:48,530 Peter Hartcher: you like, tag teamed, cooperated, coordinated in the UN Security 159 00:09:48,530 --> 00:09:54,780 Peter Hartcher: Council to frustrate US, NATO, Western ambitions to impose Western 160 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,579 Peter Hartcher: will on the world. Now that is extending further. We 161 00:09:58,580 --> 00:10:03,429 Peter Hartcher: saw them conducting new waves of joint military exercises last 162 00:10:03,429 --> 00:10:10,001 Peter Hartcher: year, including in unprecedented parts of the world, including (inaudible) 163 00:10:10,001 --> 00:10:13,670 Peter Hartcher: in Japanese coastal waters. So we can expect to 164 00:10:13,670 --> 00:10:18,210 Peter Hartcher: see this continue. And the nightmare scenario really for the 165 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:23,280 Peter Hartcher: West is that they don't just coordinate their military maneuvers, 166 00:10:23,490 --> 00:10:27,950 Peter Hartcher: their diplomacy, their United Nation Security Council position taking, but 167 00:10:27,950 --> 00:10:31,809 Peter Hartcher: that they coordinate their acts of aggression. So if, for 168 00:10:31,809 --> 00:10:37,450 Peter Hartcher: example, it should happen that Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, would China 169 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:42,020 Peter Hartcher: use that opportunity where the US and the world has 170 00:10:42,090 --> 00:10:47,870 Peter Hartcher: its attention gripped by a European contingency to help itself, 171 00:10:47,870 --> 00:10:51,090 Peter Hartcher: for China to help itself to some more maritime territories 172 00:10:51,090 --> 00:10:54,780 Peter Hartcher: in the South China Sea, East China Sea, or make 173 00:10:55,140 --> 00:10:58,200 Peter Hartcher: some other form of mischief. That would really be a 174 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,190 Peter Hartcher: very difficult circumstance for the West, for the US. In The Cold War, 175 00:11:01,770 --> 00:11:05,350 Peter Hartcher: the US structured its forces and had a doctrine to 176 00:11:05,350 --> 00:11:10,570 Peter Hartcher: support a two front, two war contingency. That's long gone. 177 00:11:11,380 --> 00:11:14,590 Peter Hartcher: Us has no such capacity. And if the US had 178 00:11:14,590 --> 00:11:18,970 Peter Hartcher: to face contingencies on both continents, both in Asia and Europe, it 179 00:11:18,970 --> 00:11:20,640 Peter Hartcher: would really not have the capacity. 180 00:11:21,190 --> 00:11:23,470 Michael Thompson: All right, well, bringing it all back home now then, 181 00:11:23,470 --> 00:11:28,880 Michael Thompson: and I mentioned in the intro the endorsement that Anthony 182 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:33,430 Michael Thompson: Albanese received, perhaps an unwelcome one by The Global Times. 183 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:37,040 Michael Thompson: How unhelpful is that to him at the beginning of 184 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:37,970 Michael Thompson: an election campaign? 185 00:11:38,590 --> 00:11:43,030 Peter Hartcher: Well, the obvious first and immediate answer is it doesn't 186 00:11:43,030 --> 00:11:47,819 Peter Hartcher: help Albanese. It plays into the Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton 187 00:11:47,820 --> 00:11:52,500 Peter Hartcher: playbook, which is for the government to win reelection by concentrating 188 00:11:52,870 --> 00:11:58,559 Peter Hartcher: on its brand strengths, traditional coalition brand strengths, whether they 189 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,450 Peter Hartcher: are actually supported by the record or not. And those 190 00:12:01,450 --> 00:12:05,960 Peter Hartcher: brand strengths, of course, being economic management, national security, while 191 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:10,820 Peter Hartcher: Labor's traditional brand strengths are health, education, and other service 192 00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:16,530 Peter Hartcher: delivery. However, if Albanese intends to win this election, he 193 00:12:16,530 --> 00:12:18,940 Peter Hartcher: has to capture the center ground. He has to do 194 00:12:18,950 --> 00:12:22,660 Peter Hartcher: what Kevin Rudd did in 2007. The last time Labor won 195 00:12:22,660 --> 00:12:26,140 Peter Hartcher: power from opposition, of course. And to do that, he 196 00:12:26,140 --> 00:12:29,059 Peter Hartcher: has to be able to demonstrate that Labor can be 197 00:12:29,059 --> 00:12:33,880 Peter Hartcher: competent in foreign policy crises as this would be, but 198 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,939 Peter Hartcher: also economic policy crisis as this would be. And this, in 199 00:12:37,940 --> 00:12:42,210 Peter Hartcher: fact, in my view, gives him the opportunity to demonstrate 200 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,780 Peter Hartcher: that credential. The Labor party's not going to win by 201 00:12:44,780 --> 00:12:48,510 Peter Hartcher: running away and hiding if there's a crisis in Ukraine 202 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,929 Peter Hartcher: or a crisis with food and energy prices and an 203 00:12:52,929 --> 00:12:57,850 Peter Hartcher: inflation surge. Foreign policy rarely wins an election. Very rarely 204 00:12:57,850 --> 00:13:02,260 Peter Hartcher: wins an election for a government or opposition anywhere, but 205 00:13:02,260 --> 00:13:05,940 Peter Hartcher: it does give them an opportunity to demonstrate competence. This 206 00:13:05,940 --> 00:13:08,849 Peter Hartcher: is an opportunity for both parties to demonstrate competence in 207 00:13:08,850 --> 00:13:12,630 Peter Hartcher: the approach to the Australian election. The Morrison government has 208 00:13:12,630 --> 00:13:16,470 Peter Hartcher: a pretty poor record of demonstrating calm, competent delivery. Look 209 00:13:16,470 --> 00:13:20,120 Peter Hartcher: at the vaccine delivery rollouts. So called stroll out. Look 210 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,150 Peter Hartcher: at the supply of RAT tests or whatever else you 211 00:13:22,150 --> 00:13:24,990 Peter Hartcher: want to look at. Competent delivery is not their strong 212 00:13:24,990 --> 00:13:27,870 Peter Hartcher: suit. Labor of course, is in opposition. It doesn't have 213 00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:30,710 Peter Hartcher: any such record. It's impossible to do that from opposition, 214 00:13:30,710 --> 00:13:35,700 Peter Hartcher: but it can demonstrate both in its rhetoric and in 215 00:13:35,700 --> 00:13:39,560 Peter Hartcher: policy proposals that it brings out that it can deal 216 00:13:40,059 --> 00:13:43,250 Peter Hartcher: calmly and competently with this. That it is not some 217 00:13:43,390 --> 00:13:46,270 Peter Hartcher: sort of patsy for the Chinese Communist Party. Labor, in 218 00:13:46,270 --> 00:13:49,630 Peter Hartcher: fact, on all the substantial decisions of the last few 219 00:13:49,630 --> 00:13:55,820 Peter Hartcher: years has been fully supportive, 100% supportive, of coalition, starting with 220 00:13:55,820 --> 00:14:00,770 Peter Hartcher: Malcolm Turnbull's decisions to impose a ban on Huawei in 221 00:14:00,770 --> 00:14:06,500 Peter Hartcher: Australia's 5G rollout, Malcolm Turnbull's decision to introduce foreign interference and 222 00:14:06,500 --> 00:14:10,610 Peter Hartcher: espionage laws. Gave full support to Malcolm Turnbull's decision to 223 00:14:10,650 --> 00:14:14,540 Peter Hartcher: ban foreign donations to Australian political parties, which incredibly was 224 00:14:14,540 --> 00:14:18,150 Peter Hartcher: still legal just three or four years ago. And Labor 225 00:14:18,150 --> 00:14:22,010 Peter Hartcher: likewise has been fully supportive in every parliamentary vote on 226 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:27,530 Peter Hartcher: every substantive government response to China's attempts to break Australian's 227 00:14:27,530 --> 00:14:32,140 Peter Hartcher: sovereign will. So Labor now simply needs to, but also 228 00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:37,479 Peter Hartcher: has the opportunity, to demonstrate its credentials as being as 229 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,020 Peter Hartcher: committed to the sovereign defense of Australia as the liberal 230 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:44,280 Peter Hartcher: coalition, and with any luck, perhaps even more competent in 231 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:45,180 Peter Hartcher: actually delivering on it. 232 00:14:45,740 --> 00:14:48,530 Michael Thompson: Okay. Well, Anthony Albanese has been around for a long 233 00:14:48,530 --> 00:14:51,750 Michael Thompson: time. This is his first election as leader of the 234 00:14:51,750 --> 00:14:56,060 Michael Thompson: Labor party. There's plenty of ammunition for him and you've 235 00:14:56,060 --> 00:14:58,040 Michael Thompson: really gone through a list of what he needs to 236 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,170 Michael Thompson: demonstrate and what Labor federally needs to demonstrate that they 237 00:15:01,180 --> 00:15:04,020 Michael Thompson: are capable of. But he does have the text messages 238 00:15:04,020 --> 00:15:07,810 Michael Thompson: as well about Scott Morrison's character. He has Emmanuel Macron's 239 00:15:07,810 --> 00:15:11,670 Michael Thompson: comments last year about the prime minister being untrustworthy. Does 240 00:15:11,850 --> 00:15:16,510 Michael Thompson: Anthony Albanese have the experience and the capability and the 241 00:15:16,510 --> 00:15:20,050 Michael Thompson: capacity to convert all of this into a win on 242 00:15:20,050 --> 00:15:20,630 Michael Thompson: election day? 243 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,280 Peter Hartcher: Yeah, I think he does. And remember, there's a couple 244 00:15:25,420 --> 00:15:29,310 Peter Hartcher: of points here. One is for the last couple of 245 00:15:29,310 --> 00:15:32,650 Peter Hartcher: years, a lot of Labor true believers have been very 246 00:15:32,650 --> 00:15:36,930 Peter Hartcher: frustrated with Albanese, urging him not to sit back, urging him 247 00:15:36,930 --> 00:15:38,859 Peter Hartcher: to put on the boxing gloves and get into the ring 248 00:15:38,860 --> 00:15:41,650 Peter Hartcher: and throw some punches. I mean, we've heard this. It's 249 00:15:41,650 --> 00:15:43,680 Peter Hartcher: been a pretty constant refrain for a couple of years 250 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,080 Peter Hartcher: and it's stepped up in the last year or so. 251 00:15:46,870 --> 00:15:49,900 Peter Hartcher: Albanese has refused all the pressure, all the urgings from 252 00:15:50,060 --> 00:15:54,120 Peter Hartcher: his own base, from his own party, consistently. Through the 253 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:58,140 Peter Hartcher: early phase of the pandemic, he kept to making constructive 254 00:15:58,140 --> 00:16:00,810 Peter Hartcher: suggestions to the government. For example, Labor was the first 255 00:16:00,810 --> 00:16:03,500 Peter Hartcher: to propose a wage subsidy, things like that, and had 256 00:16:03,590 --> 00:16:09,700 Peter Hartcher: restrained itself from just routine opposition style attacks. And what 257 00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:14,670 Peter Hartcher: we see is today the fruition of his plans approach 258 00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:18,290 Peter Hartcher: is that government is way behind in the polls in 259 00:16:18,290 --> 00:16:24,280 Peter Hartcher: every objective indicator of political fortunes, betting markets, every indicator 260 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:28,360 Peter Hartcher: of public sentiment. Now, Abanese has achieved that not through 261 00:16:28,460 --> 00:16:30,940 Peter Hartcher: putting himself to the fore, but allowing the government to 262 00:16:30,940 --> 00:16:33,900 Peter Hartcher: fail on its own terms. So his strategy has been 263 00:16:33,900 --> 00:16:37,540 Peter Hartcher: broadly correct and vindicated so far down to the last 264 00:16:37,540 --> 00:16:40,640 Peter Hartcher: three months of this cycle, at least. But the other 265 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,870 Peter Hartcher: thing I'd point out to you, Michael, is that his 266 00:16:43,870 --> 00:16:47,470 Peter Hartcher: Chief of Staff is Tim Gartrell. Tim Gartrell is a 267 00:16:47,470 --> 00:16:52,640 Peter Hartcher: backroom operator, but he was Labors Federal Secretary who drew 268 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,380 Peter Hartcher: up the strategy for Kevin Rudd's Kevin 07 successful campaign 269 00:16:56,430 --> 00:16:59,400 Peter Hartcher: to take power from John Howard. He hasn't lost any 270 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:04,139 Peter Hartcher: of his campaigning skills and he's designing this campaign. And 271 00:17:04,140 --> 00:17:07,810 Peter Hartcher: he represents a coalescence, the group around him together with 272 00:17:08,220 --> 00:17:12,950 Peter Hartcher: Albanese, of Labor's best brains and its most centrist political 273 00:17:13,150 --> 00:17:16,880 Peter Hartcher: impulses. They have every chance. To answer your question, yes, 274 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:21,600 Peter Hartcher: Albanese and the collective does have the skills and the political know 275 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:22,270 Peter Hartcher: how to bring this off. 276 00:17:23,109 --> 00:17:27,560 Michael Thompson: Peter, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 277 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,000 Peter Hartcher: A pleasure, Michael. I think I'll reject the fear and the greed, but it's been nice chatting. 278 00:17:29,970 --> 00:17:32,840 Michael Thompson: It certainly has. That was Peter Hartcher, political editor and 279 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,680 Michael Thompson: international editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 280 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,389 Michael Thompson: This is the Fear and Greed daily interview. Join me 281 00:17:38,390 --> 00:17:40,730 Michael Thompson: and Sean Aylmer every morning for the full Fear and 282 00:17:40,730 --> 00:17:43,350 Michael Thompson: Greed podcast with all the business news you need to 283 00:17:43,350 --> 00:17:45,670 Michael Thompson: know. I'm Michael Thompson, have a great day.