WEBVTT - Why Trump “needs” Greenland

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<v Speaker 1>You're expect to take an action against Greenland.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't want to talk about Greenland.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about Venezuela, Russia in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Right after the dramatic capture of Venezuela's president by US forces,

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump claimed he didn't want to talk about Greenland,

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<v Speaker 1>but he just couldn't help himself.

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<v Speaker 2>I will say this about Greenland. We need Greenland from

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<v Speaker 2>a national security to the situation. It's so strategic. Right

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<v Speaker 2>now Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships.

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<v Speaker 4>All over the place.

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<v Speaker 2>We need Greenland from the standpoint of nationals.

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<v Speaker 1>It isn't the first time Trump has shown an interest

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<v Speaker 1>in the island. He's talked about buying Greenland for years,

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<v Speaker 1>describing it as a large real estate deal. But now

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<v Speaker 1>in no uncertain terms, Greenland's Prime minister has pushed.

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<v Speaker 3>Back Cornland big. I so will say Greenland does not

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<v Speaker 3>want to be owned by the USA. Greenland does not

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<v Speaker 3>want to be governed by the USA. Greenland will not

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<v Speaker 3>be part of that.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has ordered the military to draw up an invasion

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<v Speaker 1>plan for the island. Meanwhile, high level talks between the

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<v Speaker 1>foreign ministers of Greenland, Denmark and the White House has

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<v Speaker 1>ended in stalemate. Sweden, France, and Norway have begun sending

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<v Speaker 1>armed forces to Greenland at Denmark's request, and Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is doubling down.

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<v Speaker 2>We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they

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<v Speaker 2>like it or not, and we're not going to have

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<v Speaker 2>Russia or China as a neighbor.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston, and you're listening to seven AM Today.

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<v Speaker 1>Defense editor at The Economist Shashank Joshi on why Trump

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<v Speaker 1>wants Greenland and how his plan could change the world.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, January sixteenth, Shoshank. When Trump says we need

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<v Speaker 1>Greenland for national security, what does that mean?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it means many things. Some Republicans have

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<v Speaker 3>argued that it means Russia in China pose a threat

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<v Speaker 3>to the Arctic, and Greenland is a vital outpost for

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<v Speaker 3>monitoring those threats, and that Denmark is incapable of protecting

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<v Speaker 3>the island against those threats. I'm a little bit skeptical

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<v Speaker 3>of that explanation, in part because Donald Trump is also

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<v Speaker 3>at the same time negotiating with the Russians on business

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<v Speaker 3>deals for drilling in the Arctic as part of his

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine diplomacy, which leads me to wonder is it really

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<v Speaker 3>about security. I think it is much more about two

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<v Speaker 3>other things. One of them is the resources that are

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<v Speaker 3>under Greenland's earth, which are some of the rare earth

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<v Speaker 3>materials that the modern economy is in great need of.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it has something like forty million tons of

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<v Speaker 3>rare earth in what's called oxide form. So that's one

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<v Speaker 3>of the biggest reserves in the Earth, possibly second biggest,

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<v Speaker 3>aft to China. And of course, as your listeners will know,

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<v Speaker 3>China has a great dominance over the global supply of

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<v Speaker 3>those rules and materials. So that's part of the answer.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think part of the answer is also that

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<v Speaker 3>if you go back to Donald Trump's inaugural address about

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<v Speaker 3>a year ago, this time of year ago, he cited

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<v Speaker 3>President William McKinley, and he cited the concept of manifest destiny.

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<v Speaker 4>And we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars,

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<v Speaker 4>launching American astronauts.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think he would simply like the administration to

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<v Speaker 3>be the first one in many, many years, in a century.

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<v Speaker 3>Perhaps that has resulted in the growth of American soil,

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<v Speaker 3>the expansion of America on a map.

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<v Speaker 4>One that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities,

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<v Speaker 4>raises our expectations.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that that sense of control, that sense

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<v Speaker 3>of growth, animates him. Indeed, just as we're talking, he

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<v Speaker 3>has posted a social media image presenting himself as the

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<v Speaker 3>acting President of Venezuela. I think all of that appeals

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<v Speaker 3>to him.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you lay out for a Shishenk how Greenland's government

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<v Speaker 1>currently works and how it connection to Denmark functions well.

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<v Speaker 3>Greenland effectively has its foreign policy and many of those

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<v Speaker 3>other big picture issues like communications run from Copenhagen from Denmark,

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<v Speaker 3>which is sort of the parent government. It's part of

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<v Speaker 3>the Kingdom of Denmark. It is not a kind of colony.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not, for example, the equivalent of Micronesia to the

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<v Speaker 3>United States, a state of free association, although it is

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<v Speaker 3>self governing domestically for many domestic issues. It has a democracy,

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<v Speaker 3>It has a local government with elections taking place with

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<v Speaker 3>a vibrant democratic process. But it is not, as I

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<v Speaker 3>think Donald Trump put it, a sort of protectorate or

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<v Speaker 3>colony that is there simply by virtue of Denmark having

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<v Speaker 3>landed a canoe on the island dis Donald Trump put it.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is insisting that Chinese and Russian ships are swarming

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<v Speaker 1>around Greenland? Are they and what is their presence there?

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<v Speaker 3>No, they're not. But I took Trump to be speaking

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<v Speaker 3>figuratively talking about heightened Russian and Chinese activity in the region.

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<v Speaker 3>If that's what he meant, then that's fair enough. There

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<v Speaker 3>is heightened Russian and Chinese activity. Russian submarines have been

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<v Speaker 3>more active, you know, Russian ice breakers have been more active.

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<v Speaker 3>And of course the melting sea ice in the Arctic

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<v Speaker 3>region means that there are new sea routes opening up

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<v Speaker 3>that allow the Chinese to go from the North rather

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<v Speaker 3>than all the way down through the Atlantic through the Pacific,

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<v Speaker 3>and so that also is going to increase the level

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<v Speaker 3>of Chinese commercial and dual use activity in the region.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, there's the story from a few years ago

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<v Speaker 3>in the first Trump administration where James Massis, and you

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<v Speaker 3>may remember him as Trump's first Secretary of Defense, he

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<v Speaker 3>complained to the Danes because the Chinese, a Chinese company

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<v Speaker 3>was building three airports on Greenland, and the Americans saw

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<v Speaker 3>this as a strategic project, as a potential threat, and

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<v Speaker 3>that was eventually mixed after coordination between Denmark and America.

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<v Speaker 3>So Trump, to me, not that there's kind of an

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<v Speaker 3>armada of ships, you know, patrolling up and down Greenland's coastline,

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<v Speaker 3>but that there is additional civilian, industrial, scientific, military, intelligence,

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<v Speaker 3>Russian and Chinese interest in activity throughout the Arctic, including

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<v Speaker 3>in the waters around Denmark. And I think if we

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<v Speaker 3>don't exaggerate that point, it's fair enough.

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<v Speaker 1>We know that Trump's interest in Greenland isn't you. He's

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<v Speaker 1>been talking about it for years. But how has his

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<v Speaker 1>position or his game plan on it changed, especially in

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<v Speaker 1>the second term.

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<v Speaker 3>I think very simply, his desire to acquire Greenland has intensified,

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<v Speaker 3>and his willingness to talk about military options or to

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<v Speaker 3>leave them prominently on the table has grown. What we

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<v Speaker 3>saw is that whereas the pursuit of Greenland was slightly

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<v Speaker 3>haphazard and superficial in the first term, it's been much

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<v Speaker 3>more concerted and serious in the second. And I think

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<v Speaker 3>a bit of evidence to that is a Tora Greenland

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<v Speaker 3>by jd Vance, the Vice President back in March. Vice

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<v Speaker 3>President JD Vance and second Lady Ushavance in Greenland. Today

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<v Speaker 3>it comes as President Trump says, the US needs the

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<v Speaker 3>island for nationals. You need to ensure that America is

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<v Speaker 3>leading in the Arctic, because we know that if America doesn't,

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<v Speaker 3>other nations will fill the gap where we fall behind,

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<v Speaker 3>and other efforts, some of them identified by Denmark's intelligence services,

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<v Speaker 3>by US intelligence agencies, to cultivate networks of influence in Greenland,

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<v Speaker 3>including amongst the country's independence movement. There is clearly an

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<v Speaker 3>effort to try to push the independence movement against Copenhagen,

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<v Speaker 3>against Denmark. In addition to that, we've also seen more

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<v Speaker 3>serious proposals developed in the White House about how exactly

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<v Speaker 3>America could pull away Greenland, including the suggestion that they

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<v Speaker 3>could pay a large lump sum payment to the residents

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<v Speaker 3>of Greenland to persuade them to join the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>Perhaps they say something called a compact of free association,

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<v Speaker 3>which is a type of arrangement America has with other

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<v Speaker 3>very small nations around the world in which America has

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<v Speaker 3>basically untrammeled and free access in return for certain privileges

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<v Speaker 3>for those countries. Now, Greenland is a horrified by this.

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<v Speaker 3>They don't really seem very tempted by money or by

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<v Speaker 3>these blandishments, but the fact that the administration is working

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<v Speaker 3>up these options in a very serious way is quite distinctive.

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<v Speaker 3>It's quite different from Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>One coming up, how europe is reacting and what it

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<v Speaker 1>means for NATO. Shashank how A Danish and more broadly,

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<v Speaker 1>European leaders responding to this latest move by Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Alarm, horror, deep concern. You see this in the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that Denmark's approach was initially to say, we're not going

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<v Speaker 3>to take a public fight with the US on this.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to have quiet diplomacy. We're going to talk

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<v Speaker 3>to them behind the scenes, behind closed doors. And when

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<v Speaker 3>other European governments asked the Danes, hey, what would you

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<v Speaker 3>like us to do, Denmark said, actually nothing, Just stay quiet,

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<v Speaker 3>stay calmed. You know, we're going to deliver this message

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<v Speaker 3>in private. Just leave it to us. This time everything

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<v Speaker 3>has changed. The messaging is public. We have the Danish

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<v Speaker 3>Prime minister saying an attack on Greenland would be the

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<v Speaker 3>end of NATO.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, if the US chooses to attack another NATO country,

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<v Speaker 1>then everything stops.

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<v Speaker 3>We have the Swedish Prime minister expressing grave concern. Sweden,

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<v Speaker 3>the Nordic countries, the Baltic States, and several large countries

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<v Speaker 3>in Europe are standing together in support of our Danish friends.

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<v Speaker 3>We have states that normally are very cautious about criticizing

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<v Speaker 3>in the United States, like Kastamer's government here in the UK,

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<v Speaker 3>and even they have signed up to joint statements with

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<v Speaker 3>other countries rebuking the Americans, saying that Greenland is a

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<v Speaker 3>bilateral matter between Denmark and Greenland. The future of Greenland

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<v Speaker 3>is for Greenland, and the Kingdom of Denmark for Greenland

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<v Speaker 3>in the future of demok only. And so I think

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<v Speaker 3>you see a much more public strategy of rebuke and pushback,

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<v Speaker 3>with some question swirling around as to well, should we

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<v Speaker 3>have more military exercises around Greenland? Should we put troops

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<v Speaker 3>on Greenland to try to deter an American annexation? But

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<v Speaker 3>I think the great kind of paradox is that you

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<v Speaker 3>have this European panic over American predatory behavior over Greenland,

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<v Speaker 3>but at the same time Europeans need the United States

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<v Speaker 3>to provide security guarantees for any ceasefire in Ukraine, and

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<v Speaker 3>we saw that with the presence of Jared Kushner, the

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<v Speaker 3>President's son in law, and Steve Whitcoff's envoy for Ukraine

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<v Speaker 3>in Paris just a week ago. And Europeans have to

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<v Speaker 3>walk that tightrope in a very careful way.

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<v Speaker 1>As you said, the Danish Prime Minister has threatened an

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<v Speaker 1>end to NATO if Trump pursues this. Trump's repeatedly been

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<v Speaker 1>dismissive about NATO. Could we be about to see the

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<v Speaker 1>end of it?

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<v Speaker 3>Not yet, I think we're still some from that scenario.

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<v Speaker 3>But I do believe that if he decides to try

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<v Speaker 3>to absorb Greenland without the permission of anyone else, for example,

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<v Speaker 3>by annexing it legally, even without a shot being fired,

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<v Speaker 3>even without a so called invasion of Greenland, I think

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<v Speaker 3>that that would be the end of NATO. Because NATO

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<v Speaker 3>is an alliance that relies on political cohesion, it relies

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<v Speaker 3>on trust, and America is the backbone of the alliance.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, an American four star general is the supreme

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<v Speaker 3>Allied command of Europe, the sacure, who sits in the

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<v Speaker 3>NATO military headquarters its shape near Brussels, and leads the

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<v Speaker 3>alliance and writes up its war plans. American military equipment

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<v Speaker 3>is the backbone of the alliance, specifically air power that

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<v Speaker 3>would be used to defeat Russia. And so if there

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<v Speaker 3>is no longer any trust that America would come to

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<v Speaker 3>the aid of Europe, because in fact, it is just

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<v Speaker 3>cannibalized part of Europe to the West. I think that

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<v Speaker 3>that would spell the end of NATO as a functional

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<v Speaker 3>defensive alliance against Russia. You would see effectively a moment

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<v Speaker 3>of profound crisis in Europe that would result in defense

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<v Speaker 3>spending climbing up to near double digit rates and a

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<v Speaker 3>sense of wartime panic.

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<v Speaker 1>So what would that scenario I mean for Russia and China.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think on the one hand, Russia in China

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<v Speaker 3>will be delighted by a world in which they feel

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<v Speaker 3>they can take territory against all semblance of international law

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<v Speaker 3>on the basis of force. That world is good for China,

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<v Speaker 3>it's good for Russia, and so too is a world

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<v Speaker 3>in which the Western Alliance is unable to mount a

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<v Speaker 3>unified response to their aggression, is unable to agree on sanctions,

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<v Speaker 3>is unable to agree on joint exercises, is unable to

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<v Speaker 3>come to the defense of a country like Ukraine or

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<v Speaker 3>of Taiwan in the event that that was attacked. Having

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<v Speaker 3>said that, China views Taiwan in quite different terms, China

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<v Speaker 3>used Taiwan, as your listeners will know, as part of

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<v Speaker 3>Chinese territory, and whether you agree with that or disagree

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<v Speaker 3>with That is not the point. The point is legally

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<v Speaker 3>they don't feel that they need any legal backing to

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<v Speaker 3>be able to seize Taiwan by force. And I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know if this will drastically change their options. But if

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<v Speaker 3>I was see Jinping and I were looking at this

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<v Speaker 3>Trump administration, I would say this, remaining three years of

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration, I am not going to find a

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<v Speaker 3>president who is likely to be more amenable to cutting

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<v Speaker 3>a deal with me over the conquest of Taiwan if

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<v Speaker 3>I seize Taiwan and then promise, for example, the free

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<v Speaker 3>flow of semiconductors from the island to America, just as

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<v Speaker 3>you know he wants the free flow of oil from Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 3>He doesn't care about the democratic status of Taiwan. He

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<v Speaker 3>just cares about the economic benefit to the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that that would shape my judgment is

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<v Speaker 3>China in a way that would favor invasion or conquest

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<v Speaker 3>or annexation of Taiwan, and that I believe is a

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<v Speaker 3>very dangerous thing.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think Trump is going to actually do

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<v Speaker 1>in Greenland? What could happen next?

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<v Speaker 3>I find it very hard to predict Trump's future actions,

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<v Speaker 3>but I think that there is a growing risk, although

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<v Speaker 3>still below fifty percent, so still mercifully unlikely, that he

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<v Speaker 3>simply declares large parts of Greenland to be sovereign base

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<v Speaker 3>areas to be in his control, to be part of

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<v Speaker 3>the United States. He wouldn't have to invade, he wouldn't

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<v Speaker 3>have to fire shots. He would simply say that Petufic

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<v Speaker 3>Space Force Base in Greenland is henceforth sovereign US territory.

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<v Speaker 3>He could also, and I fear that this is also

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<v Speaker 3>something he's been willing to do, impose heavy tariffs against Denmark,

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<v Speaker 3>against the EU. He could put sanctions on Danish officials

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<v Speaker 3>until they negotiate with America to allow Greenland to succeed

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<v Speaker 3>and sell it to the United States. But he believes

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<v Speaker 3>everything can be bought, and I think that he will

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<v Speaker 3>first go down the route of attempting to buy it,

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<v Speaker 3>and only when that route is completely closed will he

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<v Speaker 3>entertain more extreme options.

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<v Speaker 1>In my opinion, thank you so much for your time,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much for having me. Also in the news,

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Alberizi says he's stunned by Susan Lee's claims that

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<v Speaker 1>Labour's hate crime and gun reforms are unsalvageable. The Coalition

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<v Speaker 1>has spent weeks criticizing the Prime Minister for not immediately

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<v Speaker 1>recalling Parliament to deal with legislation in the aftermath of

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<v Speaker 1>the Bondai attacks. Now, with Parliament due to razume on

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<v Speaker 1>Monday to debate new laws, the Coalition has signaled they

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<v Speaker 1>won't support them and says the legislation has been rushed

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<v Speaker 1>and the Adelaide Festival has issued an unreserved apology to

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<v Speaker 1>Palestinian Australian author doctor Runda Abdulphatar after canceling her invitation

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<v Speaker 1>from Adelaide Writer's Week. The decision sparked a widespread boycott

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<v Speaker 1>of writers, resignation of the program director, a mass resignation

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<v Speaker 1>of the board, and the cancelation of the festival. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the Adelaide Festival has released a statement saying they retract

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<v Speaker 1>the claim that it would have been culturally insensitive for

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<v Speaker 1>Abdulphata to participate, that artistic freedom is a powerful human right,

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<v Speaker 1>that the board fell short, and that she's invited to

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<v Speaker 1>speak at next year's event. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is

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<v Speaker 1>seven am. We'll be back tomorrow.