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Speaker 1: The rental boom in Australia might be over, with rent

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Speaker 1: increases across most capital cities stalling. New rules begin today

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Speaker 1: for the NDIS and vintage shopping surges, so much so

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Speaker 1: that major retailers are selling their own secondhand clothes. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the third of

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Speaker 1: October twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer, Good morning, Michael Sewan. The main story this morning.

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Speaker 1: Annual rent increases for houses have hit multi year lows

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Speaker 1: in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, suggesting the rental

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Speaker 1: boom is over.

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Speaker 2: Oh my, hasn't it taken some time to get to

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Speaker 2: this point? Finally, some good news for renters following the

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Speaker 2: steepest and longest rental surge in history. According to Domain's

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Speaker 2: rent report released this morning, for the first time in

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Speaker 2: nine months, it's quarterly rental growth for both houses and

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Speaker 2: units has stalled across the combined capitals, marking the weakest

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Speaker 2: September quarter since twenty nineteen for houses and since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty for units. Annual gains are now at an almost

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Speaker 2: three year low. Over the September quarter, Sydney's rental growth

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Speaker 2: rate for houses was its lowest in four years, though

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Speaker 2: the median weekly rent is still seven hundred and seventy

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Speaker 2: five dollars, rents for steady for units at seven hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty dollars. In Melbourne, there was no growth in

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Speaker 2: the last quarter, with the median rent for houses at

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Speaker 2: five hundred and eighty dollars and for units at five

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty dollars. In the house rental market, Brisbane

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Speaker 2: went backwards, while Perth was the strongest performer. All capital

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Speaker 2: cities in the house market are more expensive than Melbourne

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Speaker 2: except for how But clearly rental demand is easy, with

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Speaker 2: a number of prospective tenants per rental listing on domain

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Speaker 2: falling to its lowest level since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot in that sean. There's plenty of figures,

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Speaker 1: plenty of numbers, but you boil it all down. Finally,

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Speaker 1: some good news for rents. Yes, but there's always a

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Speaker 1: But there is always a but, particularly when you're involved,

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Speaker 1: you cannot allow me to just be positive.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Domain, Well, I'm blame the market, you know. Domain

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Speaker 2: says that despite the slowdown in rental growth, tenants are

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Speaker 2: still paying record high asking rents across all capitals except

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Speaker 2: Brisbane and Canberra. And they're not paying record prices for

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Speaker 2: units in Hobard, but for houses they are. All capital

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Speaker 2: cities remain firmly a landlord's market, with vacancy rates uniformly

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Speaker 2: below two percent. This persistently low vacancy environment makes it

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Speaker 2: unusual for rent growth to store or decline. Why is

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Speaker 2: that the case? I mean, normally these sort of conditions

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Speaker 2: would fuel further rent increases. In fact, house rents are

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Speaker 2: up forty eight percent since March twenty twenty. Units are

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Speaker 2: up by about forty percent. Affordability is clearly a big

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Speaker 2: factor when it comes to this. People cannot afford rents.

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Speaker 2: That's obviously bad news story, but it's actually taking the

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Speaker 2: heat out of the rental market and it's keeping downward

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Speaker 2: pressure on what people are paying to lease hons.

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Speaker 1: All right now, it seems a good opportunity. Sean. While

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Speaker 1: we're speaking about Domain, to mention our new podcast which

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Speaker 1: we are producing in partnership with Domain. It's called The

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Speaker 1: Property Pendulum and it is out today. There's a new

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Speaker 1: episode out every Thursday. It is the podcast that tells

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Speaker 1: you which way the property market is swinging and how

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Speaker 1: to make the most of it. Today, Sean is all

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Speaker 1: about renovating. It is all about the question of how

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Speaker 1: much do you actually spend on renovations, and whether that

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Speaker 1: changes based on whether you are going to sell the

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Speaker 1: property straight away, whether you're keeping it as an investment

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Speaker 1: long term, or whether you are perhaps renovating to live

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Speaker 1: in the property, and how much you should be paying,

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Speaker 1: how to avoid over capitalizing. So look, I think I

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Speaker 1: could talk about that all day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what I did that is about last week's episode,

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Speaker 2: which was more about getting prepared to sell and kind

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Speaker 2: of knowing the market. Really it we have no intention

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Speaker 2: of selling our house, but it actually gave me some

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Speaker 2: tips about what I should be doing now, even if

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to sell for five years time or

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Speaker 2: ten years time or whatever. Just kind of knowing the market.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's really as an investor, even if

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Speaker 2: it's not about my own home. I just kind of that.

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Speaker 2: I took quite a bit out of last week, you

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Speaker 2: and Alis Stolts talking about the different I think there

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Speaker 2: were four things you were saying that you really need

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Speaker 2: to do. And I found that really interesting, even though

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Speaker 2: I'm not selling my home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's the thing. You never know when your

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Speaker 1: circumstances are going to change. I'm not trying to tell

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Speaker 1: you that things are changing, sure, but it's just good

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Speaker 1: to have this information in your back pocket, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And it's interesting anyway. I mean, I just think it's

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Speaker 2: good investment advice quite apart from whether you're selling or

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Speaker 2: buying a house. It's just some good investment advice in there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So the new episode is out today, the Property Pendulum.

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Speaker 1: It is called I'll Put a Think in today's show notes.

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Speaker 1: It also comes up after this show as well, if

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Speaker 1: you just want to just keep on listening and it

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Speaker 1: rolls straight into the Property Pendulum and you'll hear the

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Speaker 1: new episode coming up after this Local Markets. Sean, let's

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Speaker 1: get back on track. How did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, the SMPASX two hundred closed down. I touched to

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Speaker 2: eighty one and ninety eight points, dropped sharply on opening,

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Speaker 2: then it rebounded by lunchtime, and then it didn't do

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Speaker 2: much at all. Energy stocks were among the biggest winners,

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Speaker 2: with Woodside rising three and a half percent. Santos was

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Speaker 2: up nearly three percent, While the big miners were higher.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of other stokes finished lower, including several text companies,

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Speaker 2: the retailers, most of the banks. Sigma Healthcare was a

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Speaker 2: top performer, up eight percent. That follows the twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent rise on Tuesday after it provided concessions to the

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Speaker 2: hbll SEE over its bid for Chemist Warehouse. Clearly a

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Speaker 2: bunch of investors out there think that deal is going

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Speaker 2: to go ahead. Quantits A share price fell another three

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday after the four percent drop on Tuesday that

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Speaker 2: followed news at guitar air Wise is buying twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent of Virgin. In corporate news, outdoor gear retail group

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Speaker 2: KMD Brands I E. Catman Do appointed Brent Scrimshaw as

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Speaker 2: its new chief executive to replace Michael Daily. Its share

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Speaker 2: price rose one percent. Gym operator Viva Leisures share price

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Speaker 2: was flat after posting a positive outlook for the December

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Speaker 2: quarter on the back of expansion plans and a record

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Speaker 2: number of member visits. Love the idea that Viva Leisure

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Speaker 2: is a gym operator. What's Leisure and Jim's got to

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Speaker 2: do with each other? Do not know Michael anyway? And

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Speaker 2: the battle for Namoy Cotton is all but over. Maybe

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Speaker 2: privately owned commodities trader Louis Dreyfus has a massed more

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Speaker 2: than fifty percent of the group after Themoy's directors sold

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Speaker 2: their shares. Louis Dreyfus has been in a battle with

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Speaker 2: Olham Group to buy the cotton Ginna. Olam bid seventy

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Speaker 2: five cents a share, but was knocked back by the

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Speaker 2: A Trible c which said asset sales might not be

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Speaker 2: enough to allow the deal to go ahead. That's because

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Speaker 2: of the multiple linkages between Olam and Louis Dreyfus, who

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Speaker 2: now seems to have control of Memoy Counting confused me too.

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Speaker 1: I would be confused if I wasn't still about thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds earlier when you pointed out that I know that

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Speaker 1: KMD Brands owned Catman Do because we've talked about it

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Speaker 1: so many times. I never realized that the KMD in

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Speaker 1: KMD Brands came from though, and it wasn't. It wasn't

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Speaker 1: until today that you pointed out that, you know, sometimes

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Speaker 1: you just have never made that association, even though I

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Speaker 1: knew that, yes, yes, shall we put this in the

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Speaker 1: list of things that I shouldn't admit out loud. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think we.

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Speaker 2: Should just move on. Pretend you didn't say it. I

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Speaker 2: don't think anyone was listening.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully, international markets, what's going on.

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Speaker 2: The escalating crisis in the Middle East is hitting financial markets. Finally,

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Speaker 2: safe haven assets such as gold are rising in price

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Speaker 2: while volatility indices are increasing. Oil prices jumped sharply yesterday,

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Speaker 2: with print training back above seventy four US dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: The direct involvement of Iran, a member of OPEC, threatens

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Speaker 2: to disrupt oil supplies, given the country's output rows to

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Speaker 2: a sixty high three point three million, with an m

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Speaker 2: three point three million barrels a day in August. Still

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Speaker 2: find those numbers extraordinary that you can pull out three

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Speaker 2: point three million barrels of oil from a country anyway.

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Speaker 2: The Aussie dollars also under presure, having hit a nineteen

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Speaker 2: month high on Monday of sixty nine point four to

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Speaker 2: two US since it's currently training back below that sixty

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Speaker 2: nine uscent mark. Crypto acids have come off a bit

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Speaker 2: bitcoins are now fetching less than sixty two thousand US

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Speaker 2: dollars a unit on Wall Street. Apple's strong run since

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Speaker 2: the launch of the iPhone sixteen has come to an

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Speaker 2: end with a stockdown three percent. Yesterday morning, the broad

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Speaker 2: based SMP five hundred close down one percent, just a

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Speaker 2: day after it finished at a record high. That very

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Speaker 2: much reflected those Middle East tensions.

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Speaker 1: All right, plenty going on. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sewniere

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Speaker 1: looking for a special dividend because Rio Tinto, aria JB,

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Speaker 1: High five, mineral Is Sources and Ramsey Healthcare are good

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Speaker 1: places to start.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's according to investment bank Morgan Stanley, which has

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Speaker 2: compiled a list of companies with excess franking credit balances

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Speaker 2: per share. The most efficient way to get franking credits

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Speaker 2: into investors' pockets, or at least onto their balance sheets,

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Speaker 2: is by special dividends that are paid out the discretion

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Speaker 2: of boards. Of course, they may have franking credits but

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Speaker 2: not the cash to pay out the dividends, or they

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Speaker 2: may want to use the cash to buy other assets. However,

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Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley have crunched numbers come up with these Reo, ARIAJB,

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Speaker 2: Ramsey Mineral Resources as the companies with a bunch of

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Speaker 2: frank dividends sitting there Morgan Stanley Strategists expect companies to

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Speaker 2: increasingly pay out special dividends, which are of course in

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Speaker 2: excessively half in full year results. So particularly for retirees

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Speaker 2: who are looking for an income stream, kind of those

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Speaker 2: special dividends are very very important.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and on that topic, Sean of retirees and super funds,

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Speaker 1: You've got an interview coming up after the show with

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Speaker 1: Mary Hunty, the CEO of the Association of Superannuation Funds

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Speaker 1: of Australia.

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Speaker 2: So it's all about legislation being passing, well not passing

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Speaker 2: yet being pushed by the federal government through the House

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Speaker 2: of Reps on the taxation of superannuation balances over three

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Speaker 2: million dollars. It's called Division TONI if nine six ASPHAR

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Speaker 2: represents the super funds. So you would think that they

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Speaker 2: would like the idea of taxing higher superannuation balances more.

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Speaker 2: That's not the case. They've been involved in the consultation.

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Speaker 2: They understand the need for it, but their point is

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Speaker 2: that the money raised from that should actually be used

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Speaker 2: to help people with slow superannuation balances. So it's a

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Speaker 2: really interesting chat about that issue.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as sure as it's coming up a bit later

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Speaker 1: on in the playlist now shot. A new list of

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Speaker 1: approved and banned items kicks in today for the NDIS

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Speaker 1: and sex work, tarot card reading, yoga classes, and cuddle

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Speaker 1: therapy are out.

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Speaker 2: Ah they are. The one year transition period for people

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Speaker 2: living with the disability starts today as part of the

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Speaker 2: federal government's efforts to reduce the fast rising cost of

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Speaker 2: the scheme. Approved items include assistance animals, mobility supports, transport costs,

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Speaker 2: help for some household tasks, behavioral supports, prosthesis, nursing care

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Speaker 2: and modifications to the home, and specialist vehicles. Items no

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Speaker 2: longer include accommodation costs, groceries, cigarettes, vapes, legal drugs, technology

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Speaker 2: products not related to disability, care, clothing and beauty products,

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Speaker 2: pet costs, wellness services, firearms, airline lounge memberships, as well

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Speaker 2: as ones you mentioned, Michael. This is a really big

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Speaker 2: issue which is going to play out politically for a

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Speaker 2: number of months and probably years, certainly going to run

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Speaker 2: up to the next election. Some of the items you

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Speaker 2: talk about, sex work and that they it's a lot

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Speaker 2: more complex, I think than the headlines suggest, and I

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Speaker 2: certainly don't live with a disability so I don't kind

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Speaker 2: of it's unfair for me to say that I fully

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Speaker 2: understand the needs of people that live with the disability.

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Speaker 2: But certainly there'll be some people very upset by what's

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Speaker 2: on the list and what's not.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now sean one of the longer running bank fights

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Speaker 1: is over after A and Z failed to overturn a

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Speaker 1: ruling that's said it breached disclosure laws during a two

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Speaker 1: point five billion dollar capital raising. In twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 2: A and Z broke disclosure laws, which require companies to

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Speaker 2: inform shareholders of events that may affect their share price

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Speaker 2: when it didn't tell investors it had failed to raise

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Speaker 2: the whole two point five billion dollars in a capital

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Speaker 2: raising almost ten years ago from institutional investors. The raising

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Speaker 2: was seven hundred and ninety million dollars short. Now it

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Speaker 2: was underwritten by three investment banks, so the money came through.

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Speaker 2: But days later there was a retail investor raising, and

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Speaker 2: last year Justice Mark Mashinsky ruled retail investors should have

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Speaker 2: been told about that shortfall. Ain Zeid appealed the finding

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Speaker 2: and the nine hundred thousand dollars fine, but the full

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Speaker 2: bench of the Federal Court dismissed the Channel. It isn't

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Speaker 2: so much the money. It's not really about the nine

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars. It's just that it's in the media again.

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Speaker 2: It's the look of the failed challenge that's a problem

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Speaker 2: for A and Z. And the chief financial officer at

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Speaker 2: the time was Shane Elliott, who is now the CEO.

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Speaker 2: He's under pressure anyway on some other issues. So it's

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Speaker 2: just it's more the look than the money, I suppose.

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Speaker 1: How about this one Sean Samsung is laying off staff

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Speaker 1: in Australia as head office looks to cut costs.

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Speaker 2: About ten percent of the workforce could go in Southeast Asia,

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Speaker 2: Australia and New Zealand. According to report on Bloomberg. It's

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Speaker 2: not clear how many people will lose their jobs in

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Speaker 2: the local market here, but Samsung has about one hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty seven thousand staff outside South Korea. Ten percent

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Speaker 2: of those are going. Sam Sung's share price has fallen

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Speaker 2: twenty percent this year as the world's largest maker of

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Speaker 2: memory chipsum smartphones struggles in key markets. It's fallen behind

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Speaker 2: its main main CAN rival and the memory chips used

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Speaker 2: for AI, and has made little progress against Taiwan semiconductor

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Speaker 2: manufacturing in the production of custom made chips for outside customers.

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Speaker 1: And the boss of Country Road Group has considered the

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Speaker 1: retailer has suffered its worst financial performance in its history.

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Speaker 2: Out now that will trigger a rethink of its structure,

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Speaker 2: potentially new leadership teams and probably cost cutting which likely

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Speaker 2: will lead to job losses. Country Road Group will restructure

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Speaker 2: its sourcing and supply chain while also looking for better

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Speaker 2: pricing deals with supplies, according to reporting The Australian. In

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Speaker 2: an address to country Road Group staff at its Melbourne

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Speaker 2: headquarters yesterday, chief executive Raju Vappala Party said recent staff

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Speaker 2: surveys were confronting and show a sharp fall in staff morale.

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Speaker 2: Mister Vappala Party said Country Road Group, whose brands includes

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Speaker 2: country Road, Trendery, Mimco, Witchery and Politics, has experienced a

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Speaker 2: perfect storm of economic challenges. He also acknowledged that internal

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Speaker 2: workplace issues were playing a part.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now shown and Republican vice presidential

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Speaker 1: candidate JD. Vance outpointed his opponent, Democrat Tim Walls in

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Speaker 1: the only debate between the two ahead of the US

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Speaker 1: presidential election in less than five weeks time, it is

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Speaker 1: getting close.

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Speaker 2: Sure is consensus was that the forty year old had

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Speaker 2: beaten the sixty year old, who really didn't help himself

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Speaker 2: by continually taking notes and wandering through answers. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: much more civilized debate than those between the presidential candidates,

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Speaker 2: Although much of the debate was focused on Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: and Karmala Harris. It covered immigration, abortion, foreign policies. It

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Speaker 2: just covered a bunch of serious issues, and of note,

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Speaker 2: mister Vance refused to concede that Donald Trump had lost

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election.

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Speaker 1: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Ettnio, who has vowed to retaliate

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Speaker 1: against Iran after the Islamic Republic fired ballistic missiles at

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Speaker 1: Israel as the region slides ever closer, really towards all out.

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Speaker 2: Aw Speaking after the Israeli military said Tehran had fired

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Speaker 2: about one hundred and eighty missiles at the country, Mister

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Speaker 2: Netanyahu warned Iran had made a big mistake and said

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Speaker 2: it will pay for it, and I quote whoever attacks us,

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Speaker 2: we will attack them. Israel military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said

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Speaker 2: most of the Iranian missiles had been intercepted, but added

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Speaker 2: there were a few hits in the center and other

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Speaker 2: areas in the south of the country, according to a

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Speaker 2: report of The Financial Times. He said the military was

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Speaker 2: not aware of any casualties. A person briefed from the

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Speaker 2: situation said the Iranian barrage had targeted military and intelligence

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Speaker 2: infrastructure you Tel Aviv and other facilities elsewhere in the country.

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Speaker 2: In a social media post, Iran's Foreign ministry said the

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Speaker 2: action is concluded unless Israel decides to invite further retaliation. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi condemned Iran's missiles attacks and calls

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Speaker 2: for an immediate ceasefire and for diplomacy to resolve the conflict.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister also said pro Palestinian rallies plan to

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Speaker 2: mark the October seven, anniversary of the terrorist group Master's

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Speaker 2: attack on southern Israel should not go ahead.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Sean I mentioned this one at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show. This is a bit change of pace. To

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Speaker 1: finish up today. It is vintage shopping in the US

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Speaker 1: is booming, with sales at seven times the pace of

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Speaker 1: the broader retail industry. Seven times. That is huge and

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Speaker 1: some of the big retailers are jumping on board.

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Speaker 2: Yes, a vintage shopping I just think that's kind of

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Speaker 2: the trendy way of saying buying secondhand clothing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's had a glow up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So some my kids talk about going vintage shopping,

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Speaker 2: and I'm like, what's st Viny's.

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Speaker 1: It's going into Venice. Before you had like a pub

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Speaker 1: run or something at Uni and Bathist.

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Speaker 2: When you have things like that, it was.

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Speaker 1: Like an eighties night at the Unibar and everyone would

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Speaker 1: just going to Vinnice Vene's.

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Speaker 2: I mean to be honest, these sort of thresh shops

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Speaker 2: are a little bit more market than Vinnie's. In fact,

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Speaker 2: in the US, retail giants including Banana A, Public Made

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Speaker 2: Well and H and M are getting into the resale game.

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Speaker 2: This is all from a report in New York Times.

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Speaker 2: Others like Lulu, Lemon, j Crue, Abercrombie and Fitch use

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Speaker 2: third parties to resell their clothing. In fact, there are

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Speaker 2: now about twenty five thousand resale stores in the US.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that's really interesting many of them have

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Speaker 2: an online presence, but this is much more about going in,

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Speaker 2: checking out the clothes, looking at them, saying yep or nope,

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Speaker 2: and buying them off the rack, which is like a

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Speaker 2: return to a very old fashioned pre COVID trend. Actually,

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Speaker 2: bricks and water retailing.

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Speaker 1: Vintage retailing as well. Got a bit of an issue here,

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Speaker 1: Sean with the idea of say Lulu Lemon reselling clothes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because that is active, were right, Yeah, yeah, it's good,

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Speaker 2: But I'm not in the secondhand clothes in full stop

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Speaker 2: like he's been wearing it before me? What sort of

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Speaker 2: person's sweaty person has been wearing it before me?

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Speaker 1: So you wouldn't would you buy it like a jacket

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Speaker 1: or something? Second Haland no?

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Speaker 2: Really, like I'd like to say I would, but no,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't get near it. Okay, smelly, sweaty.

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Speaker 1: Sean, upper class Alma refusing refusing to go secondhand. I

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Speaker 1: think this has got weekend edition written all over it,

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Speaker 1: and I look forward to getting stuck into this topic

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Speaker 1: and getting stuck into you during that podcast on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Up next, two things to listen to in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Playlist versus the new episode of the Property Pendulum,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by Domain and Fear and Greed, and

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Speaker 1: after that, the Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Mary

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Speaker 1: Della Hunty the CEO of the Association of Superannuation Funds

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Speaker 1: of Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked to Mary all about changes to the

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Speaker 2: taxation of super at the top end with balances over

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Speaker 2: three million dollars, but what the government should do with

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Speaker 2: that if the legislation passes, and how they should use

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Speaker 2: it to help people who don't have so much super.

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Speaker 1: They are coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It is Thursday, the

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Speaker 1: third of October twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson And that was

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Have a great date.