1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm sure, Almam. Yesterday, 2 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: the second the US presidential debate took place, and it 3 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: was a vastly different experience to the first a couple 4 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,240 Speaker 1: of months ago. This was Vice President Carmla Harris taking 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: on former President Donald Trump, the first time the pair 6 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: have gone head to head. In fact, got in to 7 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: some reports, it was actually the first time that ever met, 8 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: and it was a wide ranging debate, covering everything from 9 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: immigration and abortion to race, identity and the judicial system. 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: Brice Wolpy is a Senior Fellow Nonresident at the United 11 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: States Studies Center. He has worked with the Democrats in 12 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 1: Congress during President Barack Obama's first term. Last year, he 13 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: published Trump's Australia, which looks at the potential for Donald 14 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: Trump to return to the presidency and what that means 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: for Australia. Bruce, Welcome back to Fear and Greed. 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 2: Great to be with you, Sean. What could be more 17 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: a fearful of greedy than a presidential debate? 18 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: So true, so true? So who won? 19 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 2: Oh? I think Carmla Harris won. I mean I think 20 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 2: she she took him apart, and I think he took 21 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: himself apart throughout the debate. I mean, they covered all 22 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 2: the issues that that you cited, but it really was 23 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: what transpired between the two of them. I think she 24 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 2: showed herself to be fit for the presidency. A lot 25 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 2: of people going into the debate, a lot of people 26 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 2: said they don't know enough about her. They kind of 27 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 2: like her, but she hadn't defined herself. And I think 28 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 2: just all the things she talked about, from the economy 29 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 2: and so forth, to what she did in Europe with 30 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 2: Zelenski and NATO and so forth, showed that she is 31 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 2: up for the presidency. And I think he showed himself 32 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: not to his base. I don't think he lost one 33 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 2: vote from those who are supporting him so far, but 34 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 2: to undecided voters, those who voted for Biden in twenty 35 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 2: twenty but have not yet declared for Trump. These are 36 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: young voters, black voters, Hispanic voters, women, some men. I 37 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: think she gave them reason to come home. And I 38 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: think Republicans who had doubts about Trump not happy. There 39 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: were fifteen percent of republic and the primaries did not 40 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 2: vote for Trump. And then Dick Cheney last week endorsed 41 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 2: Harris so I think she was able to reach them. 42 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 2: So I think she showed for those people that he's 43 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 2: unfit to return to the presidency. I think it was 44 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 2: a clear win for her yesterday. 45 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: We'll get onto the more ridiculous moments in the debate shortly, 46 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: But what about what did Trump? Was there anything in 47 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: there from Trump that you thought maybe he did a 48 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: good job on I think, I mean, I think most 49 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 1: pundits are saying he was outpointed, But were the things 50 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: that he actually came through looking okay? 51 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 2: His two strongest buttons that he keeps pushing are the 52 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: economy and inflation and immigration. He kept pushing those buttons. 53 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 2: I actually they think he did his best at the last, 54 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 2: the closing state in which he said, you've been there 55 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 2: three and a half years, why didn't you do all 56 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: these things that you said you were doing? But I 57 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 2: think it was too late, and so he didn't gain 58 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 2: as much. If he had opened with that, I think 59 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: it would have he would have been in a much 60 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 2: stronger position. But all of his frailties, I mean, he 61 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,959 Speaker 2: goes down beandering paths into god knows where he can't 62 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 2: string a concept together and really explain it. In death 63 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 2: and that was evident for everyone to see. Again, his fans, 64 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: they love it. It's like a Taylor Swift concert. Bad 65 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 2: news for him. She endorsed Kamala Harris right after the debate. 66 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: Two hundred and thirty nine million followers, that he's bad news. 67 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: What about some of those criticisms of Kamala Harris, immigration 68 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: being the big one he certainly hounded that. Do you 69 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: think he scored points against her on that? 70 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 2: Oh? I think he scores points against her on that. 71 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: Now she has a defense which he put out, which is, hey, 72 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 2: we worked out a bipartisan, tough immigration deal and you 73 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 2: killed it because you'd rather have the issue. That's true, 74 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 2: but the issue still exists. And you know the power 75 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: of immigration here in Australia. As soon as you push 76 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 2: that button gouds of refugees or any boats arriving, it 77 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: sinks in and inflation. It's the same story here too. Again, 78 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 2: cost of living pressures are really really tough, and interest 79 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 2: rates are still really really high. And so yeah, you 80 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 2: take a hit on that. So the question is can 81 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: those combined hits actually take her down? And I think 82 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 2: she has enough strength on other issues and in what 83 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 2: she said about those and what she wants to do 84 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 2: as president. I think she cushioned herself a bit. But 85 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 2: this race is still so close. I mean, going into it, 86 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 2: it's actually it's absolutely tied at the national level on 87 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 2: the popular vote, and in the swing states, it's tied 88 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: in seven out of seven swing states. It's within two 89 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 2: or three points. So that's where it is. So she 90 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: has not won this I was in the States, you know, 91 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 2: for an extended period. Just got back about ten days ago, 92 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: and what I saw from Democrats was, Oh, she's in there, 93 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: she's got this nail. She's going to win. No, it's 94 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 2: even at best, and he is still fully competitive. 95 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: Stay with me, Bruce. We'll be back in a minute. 96 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: Speaking to Bruce Welby from the United States Studies Center. Okay, 97 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: I need to ask you about cat eating or something 98 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: like that. That's one of the more extraordinary moments trans 99 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: reference to immigrants stealing and eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, 100 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 1: and the moderators did intervene. What do you make of that? 101 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 2: It's insipid and ridiculous, But nevertheless, that's now part of 102 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 2: the Trump culture and the wars that he prosecutes, and 103 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: he believes it. So it's sort of like believing, you know, well, 104 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: we didn't land on the moon or something like that. 105 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 2: So so everyone outside of the Trump base, the Trump movement, 106 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 2: the Trump call look at this and say what And 107 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 2: so he hurt himself with that. He really did. 108 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: Seventy to eighty million people are expected to have watched 109 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: the debate yesterday. What do you think their impression will 110 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: be walking away from it? 111 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 2: Well, again, most people, when you watch a political debate 112 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 2: in the same thing here as it is in the 113 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 2: United States, you go in with well, I like the 114 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 2: liberals are like labor or whatever, and you come out 115 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 2: on the same side. It doesn't change her mind. And 116 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: I think that really happened here. If you were for Harris, 117 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 2: you're with her in the same thing for Trump. But again, 118 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: there are those constituencies that are yet still undecided and 119 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: in play in which I think she was able to 120 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 2: reach them more effective. So we'll find out if in 121 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 2: the next three, four, five days or the week if 122 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 2: she can open up a lead outside of the margin 123 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 2: of the error in the polling, and if she can 124 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: do that normally by mid September, we're almost there, but 125 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,719 Speaker 2: we still have some time. By mid September in the 126 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 2: past four or five elections, the winner has had a 127 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 2: measurable lead in mid September, so we will see if 128 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 2: in fact that emerges for her. 129 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,160 Speaker 1: You mentioned Taylor Swift as an offhand remark, but it 130 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: actually does matter two hundred and thirty nine million followers, 131 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: and she came out immediately afterwards and said, Kamela Harris 132 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: stands up for the sort of things that I like, 133 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: I stand up for. She was, I know, need to see. 134 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: She posted a picture of herself with a cat, called 135 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,679 Speaker 1: herself a cat child, this cat lady. But how important 136 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: is it? 137 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 2: It's very important because so one of the biggest deficits 138 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 2: that Harris has is she's behind where Biden was with 139 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 2: young voters in the twenty twenty election. So yeah, I 140 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 2: think she's probably worth a lot of votes, and I 141 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: don't think her involvement with the campaign is over today. 142 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 2: I think she'll do some more things in the weeks. 143 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: When we last spoke about six weeks ago, Kamala Harris 144 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 1: had just taken the nomination. You were very cautious in 145 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: terms of you said, look, she'll get a boost in 146 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: the first few weeks, but let's say what the battleground 147 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: states are saying, you know, a month later, now we're 148 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: a month or six weeks later. She certainly and yesterday 149 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: showing she's certainly in with a shot. 150 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 2: Here she's in with a shot and where she's leading, 151 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 2: but again within the margin. Ey bear with Pennsylvania and Michigan, 152 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 2: wisconssle if she wins those three and forgets the rest 153 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 2: of them and the other states performers. They have over 154 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 2: four decades in the election, barely, but the other states 155 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 2: are still in play. But he's in play with them too, 156 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: And you could see in the debate he hammered it. 157 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: They were in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania absolutely crucial. It seems to 158 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 2: me the person who wins Pennsylvania wins the election. And 159 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 2: he went after her on fracking, big energy industry in Pennsylvania, 160 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 2: kept hammering it and hammering it. So it's not locked. 161 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: It's going to be tense for weeks yet to come. 162 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 2: They're fifty five days left. It's going to be tense. 163 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: Bruce, I always asked this question. You never answered, who's 164 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: going to win? 165 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 2: I still can't tell you. 166 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, come on more than that. 167 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 2: If she does, coming off this debate and bringing in 168 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 2: these voters that are undecided, and she does have a 169 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 2: five point lead by this time. By the end of 170 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 2: next week, then I'd say, yeah, she's going to win. 171 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 2: And I think Trump she clearly got under his skin 172 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 2: and he started really going down rabbit hole set and 173 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 2: if he keeps people will now be alert to that more. 174 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 2: Biden was seen as cognitively dissa. I think Trump is 175 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 2: far worse in this condition than Biden, but people haven't 176 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 2: seen it as much because the journalists have not covered 177 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 2: it as much. And now I think that's a big issue. 178 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: What do you think the Trump campaign will do? They're 179 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: in a fight now. He has stuck with the politics 180 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: of abuse for one of a better term of anyone 181 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: that's running against him, and stayed away from policy broadly, 182 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 1: certainly no detailed policy. Do you think they'll maintain that 183 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: in the next fifty five days. 184 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 2: Everything that we saw on the debate, everything we've seen 185 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 2: leading up to the bet, he's going to stick with 186 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 2: so A, she's a radical Marxist. He called her a 187 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 2: Marxist in the debate. Your father was a Marxist. He's 188 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: going to double down on the immigration issue, on the 189 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 2: inflation issue, on the trade ish and everything that he 190 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 2: says is what he never. He will play offense. He's 191 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: not interested in converting Democrats. He's interested in making sure 192 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 2: all of his voters vote and he leaves in his 193 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 2: heart and mind. If they all vote, there's no way 194 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 2: he loses. So that's what he's going to do. Stay that, 195 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 2: it's the same game. 196 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: It's going to be fun. Bruce, thank you for talking 197 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed Sean. 198 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:12,959 Speaker 2: I really appreciate that. 199 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: Was Bruce Wilby, seenior Fellow nonresident at the United States 200 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: Studies Center. This is a Fear and Greed business interview. 201 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: Join us every morning for the full episode of Fear 202 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: and Greed Business news for people who make their own decisions. 203 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: I'm Sean, I Elma. Enjoy your day.