WEBVTT - The Gaza Effect on Britain’s election 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:08.400 You can listen to the Front on your smart speaker 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.639 every morning to hear the latest episode. Just say play 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:23.520 the news from the Australian. From the Australian, Here's what's 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:29.480 on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Monday, July eighth. 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:32.680 The Federal Court has convened a special panel of judges 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:36.600 to tackle a wave of constitutional challenges engulfing the legal 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:39.479 system in the wake of a landmark High Court decision 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:44.680 that freed asylum seekers from indefinite detention, including some convicted 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:49.440 of serious violent offending. That exclusive Byrienne and Down is 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:56.080 live now at the Australian dot com dot au. A 0:00:56.160 --> 0:01:00.760 pro Palestine organization called the Muslim Vote, which helped five 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:04.640 independent candidates win seats in the UK, will this week 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:08.319 announce its candidates here in Australia. It's one of the 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:14.080 many reasons Australia's politicians are anxiously analyzing Britain's stunning election results, 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.600 which swept Labored to power and threw up a whole 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:24.039 new set of challenges for the major parties. That's today's episode. 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:34.559 American presidents get months to move into the White House. 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:38.240 That means they also get months to move out when 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:42.880 their term is over. Things move much faster in Britain, 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:49.840 your mutest As the UK's newly elected Prime Minister, Labour's 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:53.520 Keir Starmer shook hands with the King and engaged in 0:01:53.560 --> 0:02:00.880 a few moments of awkward chit chat. Ready the new 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:05.000 tenant at ten Downing Street and Rishi Sunak, with his 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:10.919 wife and daughters, was out as Labor absorbed it's stunning majority, 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:13.680 more than four hundred and ten seats out of the 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:17.040 six hundred and fifty seat House of Commons. There was 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:25.880 a party, we did it, and then a somber first speech. 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:31.040 If I asked you now whether you believe that Britain 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.480 will be better for your children, I know too many 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:37.000 of you would say no. 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:41.200 Here Stormer has entered the Host of Commons with a 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:46.320 staggering majority, the second biggest since the Second World War. 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:50.680 Richard Ferguson is the Australian's National Chief of Staff. 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.440 He could be Prime Minister for a decade. He's already 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.840 thinking about the next election. But this is a majority 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:01.200 that's on Schiki grown. This is a majority that relied 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:05.960 very heavily on people hating the Tories rather than loving Labor. 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:09.960 The calling this the loveless Lanslade. 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:15.600 Starmer has spent four years rebuilding Labour's lost soul after 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.639 it was thrashed by the Tories in twenty nineteen. Surrounded 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:23.240 by a cloud of distaste about the anti Semitism former 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:27.280 leader Jeremy Corbyn had allowed to flourish within the party, 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:33.120 Starmer sacked Corbyn from Labor altogether, the first step in 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:37.480 a reset where Starmer proved himself politically ruthless. 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:42.640 My government will fight every day until you believe again. 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:48.160 From now on you have a government unburdened by doctrine, 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:52.720 guided only by the determination to serve your interest, to 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:57.440 defy quietly those who have written our country off. 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:02.120 Starmer and his wife have two teenagers, a boy and 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:05.520 a girl, but until now their names have been kept 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:09.080 secret at the request of the Starmers, respected by the 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:14.960 UK press. Victorias Starmer has Jewish heritage, and Starmer has 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.720 previously revealed their children have been raised in the traditions 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:21.919 of that faith. It was reported in the days after 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.120 the election that the kids didn't want to leave their 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:28.440 home in London's inner suburbs. However, it's expected they will 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:32.520 move into Downing Street, the Row of seventeenth century townhouses 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:36.160 with offices on the ground floor and the living quarters above. 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:41.279 Margaret Thatcher called it living over the shop. The Starmers 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.440 are still unpacking, but they'll move into the interconnected living 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:48.640 quarters above number eleven Downing Street, where there are four bedrooms, 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:53.040 rather than the much smaller two bedroom flat above number ten. 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:58.279 Starmer is already indicating he'll be different. He said. Throughout 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:01.320 his career he has finished work at six on Fridays 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.640 while working as a chief prosecutor and as a human 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.719 rights barrister, and he says he has no intention of 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:08.800 changing that habit. 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:13.320 In many ways, Kers Starmer is the opposite of now 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:16.039 a few prime ministers ago Boris Johnson, and that we 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:19.360 don't know anything about him really at all. With Boris Johnson, 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:23.920 we obviously knew every affair, every illicit detail. Even if 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:25.919 he wouldn't tell us how many kids he had, we 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:27.720 knew there were at least a couple that he wasn't 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.159 admitting about. But with Kers Starmer, you know, we know 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:34.720 his wife, Victoria works in the NHS, the National Health Service. 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.800 We know that they've got a number of children, but 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.560 we don't know their names. We don't know what they 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.360 look like. He's also different than say Tony Blair and 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:46.080 Margaret Thatcher, whose children were very much a part of 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:50.680 their lives and of their Prime ministerships. And we're out 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:54.560 there and used kind of his political props sometimes with 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:57.160 the Starmer family. It's all very very private. It's all 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.400 very much business up front, says. 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:03.160 The children have asked to get a dog, and there's 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:07.080 already a cat in residence at Downing Street, a rescue 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:11.920 named Larry who's lived there for thirteen years. Kirstarma will 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:16.240 be Larry's sixth Prime minister. Even though Labor only got 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:18.960 thirty four percent of the vote, it's getting more than 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:22.920 sixty four percent of the seats. That's because of Britain's 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:27.160 voting system, First past the post means the person in 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:30.520 each constituency who wins the greatest number of votes gets 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:34.320 the seat. That's a stark difference from Australia, where the 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.880 major parties often have to rely on preferences flowing from 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:38.920 smaller parties. 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.719 What Libra did and what the Liberal Democrats who came 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:46.160 number three and the elections did very well as they 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:48.640 plead the first past the poorest game. So instead of 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:52.240 focusing on national vote share. They poured all of their 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:54.520 resources into the seats they knew that they could win 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:59.440 a plurality of votsen, particularly for Libra. It was in Scotland, 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.880 so there were really boosted by a huge sweep against 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.520 the Scottish Nationalists who have been very dominant in Scotland 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.560 for the past decade. But Labor has swept all those 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:12.480 seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh back and the Liberal Democrats 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:16.800 only had a very tiny national vote share increase too, 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:19.760 but they had massive increases in the seats that they 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:23.600 targeted in kind of affluent Tory areas a little bit 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.080 like the Tales here, that they knew they would get 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.640 the votes in. They didn't have a formal deal Labor 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:32.320 and the Liberal Democrats, but Labor basically ran dead in 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.520 seats where the Liberal Democrats would do well against the Tories, 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:38.360 and the Liberal Democrats ran dead in the seats where 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:41.000 they knew that Labor were the best challenges of the Tories. 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:46.560 Downing Street's previous tenant, Rishi Sunac, couldn't hide the pain 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.560 as he fronted up for the Conservatives blunders in front 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:52.160 of that famous black door. 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.640 I would like to say first and foremost, I am sorry. 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.520 It was the biggest collapse in the Tory of war whatever. 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:04.840 And I think Rishie Sonac's position was irretrievable the minute 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:08.280 he walked into Number ten Downing Street, Claire. Because of 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:11.480 Les Truss. So Les Truss obviously was the Prime minister 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:14.320 for only seven weeks. She was the Queen's last prime minister. 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:17.840 But she only lasted seven weeks because of a disastrous 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.200 mini budget which sought, you know, a kind of a 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:24.040 radical lazzi fair agenda. But what she did in that 0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:27.440 instance was she spooked the markets. But then she tied 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:31.800 the Conservatives to a massive rise in interest rates. And 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.439 the minute any political party is tied to the rising 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.440 of interest rates, Claire, no matter where you are in 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:38.760 the world, that is very bad news. 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.840 The Tories lost more than two hundred and fifty seats 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:45.560 to see it one hundred and twenty one seats out 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:49.840 of six fifty, the Conservative Party's worst result in its 0:08:50.040 --> 0:09:00.440 entire one hundred and ninety year history. Kis Down says 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.360 it's down to business. He's promising to put the VAT, 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:07.719 Britain's equivalent of a GST on private school fees and 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:11.240 to fix the creaking National Health Service, as well as 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:15.360 a prisons crisis. Britain's jails are full and defenders are 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:19.080 being released after serving half their terms to make room 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:24.240 for more. And then there's unauthorized migration. So far this year, 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.720 more than thirteen thousand migrants have arrived in the UK 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:32.720 via small boats across the English Channel. The Tories wanted 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:36.040 to send them to Rwanda in a fix inspired by 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:40.559 John Howard's Pacific solution, but Keir Starmer says that's off. 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:43.920 Look, the ride scheme was dead and barer before it started. 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:47.440 It's never been a deterrent. Look at the numbers that 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:51.280 have come over in the first six and a bit 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:55.120 months of this year. They are record numbers and I'm 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:57.800 not prepared to continue with gimmicks that don't act as 0:09:57.800 --> 0:09:58.640 are deterrent. 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.120 One of the things about labor that they're going to 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.160 really struggle with. They really didn't reveal what they were 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:07.920 going to do at all in any area of policy 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:11.240 Claire because they didn't want to spook the electorate. But 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:15.480 he doesn't have a particularly strong plan to deal with 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.560 a small boats crisis, and he's going to have to 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:21.160 come up with one, and even Tony Blair is in 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:25.800 the Times this weekend saying if you don't control your borders, 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:29.480 that's when prejudice flows. So he's having the minutes walked in. 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:32.880 He's having Tony Blair, who it must be said, still 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.720 holds the record for the biggest labor majority, saying you 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:40.079 must stop these small boats or it will be your undoing. 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.679 One of the biggest factors kiz Dama has to face 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:49.600 now is the Gaza effect. Five independents, including Jeremy Corbyn, 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:54.080 who campaigned hard on recognition of Palestine, took seats that 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:56.880 Labor would otherwise have expected to win. 0:10:57.600 --> 0:10:59.760 It's a big problem and it's a problem around the world. 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.200 Look at the primaries for the Democrats, where Joe Biden 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:08.560 basically ran unopposed, but he suffered huge protest votes in 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:12.640 places like Michigan with huge Muslim populations. Labor kind of 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:16.280 saw this coming in Britain because they had huge protest 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.960 votes in the council elections and a lot of this 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:22.680 has been directed by a group called the Muslim Vote, 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:27.280 and as we know, they are looking to replicate that 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:31.520 here in Australia, targeting some ministers such as Education Minister 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:35.480 Jason Clair, the Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke, and we 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:38.560 know that through Dennis Shanahan and Sarah Eisen's reporting in 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.800 The Australian last week that Anthony Albinizi is concerned about 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.760 this group. So we may yet see that replicated here, 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:48.800 but it is definitely a problem for cair Starmer. 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:56.520 Coming up the firebrand conservative everyone's talking about and how 0:11:56.559 --> 0:12:01.520 he could reshape British Politicsustralian's deep in coverage of the 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.760 other two orcast elections happening in coming months in the 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:08.400 US and possibly here in Australia. You can be the 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.839 smartest person in every room by joining our subscribers now 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:15.160 at the Australian dot com dot a U and we'll 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:27.840 be back after this break. One of the wildcuts in 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:31.520 the UK election is Nigel Farage, a politician who's been 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:35.679 around UK politics for decades, initially as an anti europe 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:39.280 campaigner and now offering himself as an alternative voice to 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:43.800 the Tories with a strident line on migrants. His party 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.520 was the second most popular in more than one hundred 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:50.880 seats and took a whopping fourteen percent of the national vote. 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:54.439 It also won five seats of its own putting Farrage 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:56.440 into Parliament for the first time. 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:00.960 There was one political analyst and Breton who said, Nigel 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.840 Farage will be happy he's finally entered Parliament. He'll just 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:06.320 be sad that there's four other MP's going with him. 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:11.240 He has a reputation for falling out with people that 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.440 have joined his group. For example, when he was in 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.800 UKIP and a couple of Tories defected to UKIP his 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.199 original party where she was pushing the bricks of vote 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.200 from he fell out with them. He's very much the 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.120 star of his own show, but also he actually has 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:27.120 to be an MP. And the thing about being an 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:31.040 MP clayer, especially in Britain even more than so in Australia, 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:35.559 it's very restrictive. He can't dominate question time. He only 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.760 gets one question maybe a couple of months, and then 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.280 there's so much work in MP has to do, especially 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:44.920 in Britain, where people write in about their council bins 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.600 and the bus stop nearby making too much noise and 0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:51.840 oh you know there's a problem with my toilet m 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.040 sewerage like it is not going to be as glamorous 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:57.080 as he thinks, and he may be wishing that he 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.400 decided to go and do what he was originally going 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:01.920 to do, which is and Stumper own the country for 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.120 Donald Trump and go to all these gletsy events for 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.040 the Republicans in America, rather than he's sucking in the 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:09.280 cisode tain of Clacton. 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.640 Nigel Farage was criticized during the campaign for being allegedly 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.679 pro Russia. He's fired back about that speaking here to 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:19.720 our colleagues at times radio. 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:24.160 I've never said anything nice about Pootsin. I think what 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:28.560 he's done in Ukraine is absolutely reprehensible at every level. 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.600 Of course, all wars end in one of two ways, 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:37.240 either annihilation or negotiation. I would have thought negotiation was 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.240 rather important. I would have thought the West could satan Putin. 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:44.080 You've got to give up the territory that you know 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:48.920 thus far, and if you don't, then I'm afraid. You know, 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.040 we are going to lay down some very very tough 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.000 conditions and maybe NATO will have to expand. 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.400 But Richard, he's now a force in the Parliament who, 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.280 I think it's fair to say, is not likely to 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.640 support huge amounts of weaponry being sent to Ukraine to 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.840 prolong the war. Is that your rating of base and 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.400 what does it mean for ukramee and the rest of 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:09.239 the world. 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:12.600 I think ultimately it won't matter because Labor has five years, 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:14.720 it's a much longer term than we have in Australia 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.800 and they have such a huge majority. But what it 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:22.160 will mean is if say there are other events in 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.440 NATO in the next coming years, how will the Tory 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:29.880 Party react to how Nigel Farag thinks this will be 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.040 the problem for the British Right. Do they welcome Nigel 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:36.800 Farage back into the fold and try and get him 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.840 into the Conservatives or do they try and push him 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:45.720 out or hope that he blows himself up or gets bored. 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.400 Labor has won the first past the post game, but 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.920 it's on a very very shaky ground this majority. The 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:56.520 Conservative Party is in a very very bad place, but 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.800 it's not impossible to imagine them even getting back to 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:02.680 a kind of a hung parliament standing, maybe not in 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.680 the next term, but definitely in the term after. So 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.160 that is how it will affect is how will the 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.200 Conservators react to Nigel Farage and what role will he 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.600 play in the reorganization of the British Right. 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:21.680 Whichard focus on is the Australian's National chief of Staff. 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.640 Thanks for joining us on the front and don't forget 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.800 to subscribe at the Australian dot com dot au