1 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed summer series. I'm sure ailmart. 2 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Today I'm talking to Simon Kusten Maha, co founder and 3 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: director of the Demographics Group about why we have a 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: skills shortage in Australia and why I I won't make 5 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: it go away. Simon, welcome to the summer series. 6 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: It's good to be on. 7 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: Why do we have a skills shortage in Australia. 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 2: Well, it's simply demographic in nature, and the demographics suggests 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 2: that the skills shortage will continue to be present for 10 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: the next decade plus simply because we continue to push 11 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: this very large cord of baby boomers out of the workforce. 12 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: At the other end, we only introduce a relatively small 13 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 2: cord of Gen Z's into the workforce. Then, of course 14 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 2: we're now sending about fifty five percent of our year 15 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: twelves into the university system, which then in turn means 16 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 2: that they hang out on campus for just one degree, 17 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 2: more degree, one more degree, and they ultimately only contribute 18 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 2: to the workforce in their mid to maybe even late twenties. Then, 19 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 2: of course, we have on top of that another twelve 20 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 2: years worth of millennials making babies millennials being the biggest 21 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 2: generation of them all in Australia. That means that these 22 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 2: millennials that that are starting or adding new members to 23 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 2: the family, that they will leave the world of work 24 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 2: at least for a little bit as they go on 25 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 2: print leave. So we have lots and lots of pressures 26 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 2: that push people away from the workforce. So we are 27 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: the workforce in total size actually continues to grow a 28 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 2: bit and so you might say, well, why will there 29 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: be a skilled shortage? It doesn't sound all that dramatic. Well, 30 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 2: there will be a skilled shortage because the demand for 31 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 2: workers will go up rather than down, and that in 32 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: light with AI is a bit confusing or surprising to people. 33 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: But what we are going to do in the next 34 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 2: fifteen years, for example, is that we must double the 35 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: agecre system in size from as a general rule of thumb, 36 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 2: half of the eighty five plus code in Australia needs 37 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 2: care on a daily basis in the next fifteen years. 38 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 2: By twenty forty, we are doubling the population eighty five 39 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 2: plus in Australia from five hundred and ninety thousand people 40 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 2: today to one point two million people. And that's guaranteed 41 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 2: to happen. We're not importing, we're not exporting old people. 42 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 2: All the old people of twenty forty are already in Australia. 43 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 2: They aren't going to leave either, So that means we 44 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: must double the hcare system. Can we pull this off? No, 45 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 2: and this is an industry that will not be overly 46 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: impacted by AI. Maybe we make sure that the paperwork 47 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 2: that hecare workers are forced to do becomes a bit 48 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 2: more efficient faster through AI. They can then spend a 49 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 2: bit more time caring for people. But ultimately this is 50 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 2: just one example of a skilled short wais the most 51 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 2: extreme example in hcare. But as we push so many 52 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 2: baby boomers into retirement, they will remain relatively healthy for 53 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 2: quite a long time. We know that boomers in retirement 54 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 2: increase their spending. That means they demand services, which creates jobs, 55 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 2: which is good, But ultimately there is still a general 56 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: shortage therefore in the system. 57 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: So simon is part of this. There were so many 58 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: baby boomers and they're moving on. You mentioned millennials in 59 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: your chat there there are a lot of millennials, but 60 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: is the issue there that there actually a lot of 61 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: millennials are being taken out because of child well, having 62 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 1: children or childcare. 63 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 2: That's exactly it. So this is just one additional thing. 64 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 2: So if you look at a quick population chart, you 65 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 2: think it looks also nice because you have so many 66 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 2: people in their mid thirties there, But that is the 67 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 2: exact time when the millennials are making babies, and so 68 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 2: we lose them temporarily. It is true that many many 69 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 2: parents return to work extremely quickly, simply because most Australian 70 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: households now rely on dual income to make sure that 71 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: the mortgage is repaid, that the bills are being paid. 72 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 2: That said, even if we push them back a bit faster, 73 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 2: you still lose them for a little while. And that 74 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: has a severe impact simply because it is such a 75 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 2: big chunk of the population that goes through the baby 76 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 2: making face in the coming decade. 77 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: Okay, and then gen z there's not as many gen Zeta. 78 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: That's actually a reasonably small cohort, I think, and particularly 79 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: if they're at UNI, so they're just not going to 80 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: be able to feel the baby boom is leaving exactly. 81 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 2: And this is just one of those very very easily 82 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 2: to forecast demographic shifts. And you then see that there 83 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 2: is a certain kind of tightening of labor supply in 84 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: the system. And when I see the world through this 85 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 2: demographic lens of mine, I would say, well, any kind 86 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 2: of calls to massively cut migration in the next ten 87 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 2: years seem laughable to me, because yes, you might, you 88 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 2: might create a bit of ease the pressure on the 89 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: housing market or something like this. But these skills show 90 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 2: is that you exaggerate through lower migration numbers that seems 91 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 2: to be an even starker impact on society. So I 92 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 2: don't think we'll do this. Also, this is still my 93 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 2: reminder that the Treasurer would never ever allow the PM 94 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 2: to cut migration because the Treasurer relies for well over 95 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,160 Speaker 2: fifty percent of their budget on income text. Sixty one 96 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 2: percent of migrants that we taken each year pay income 97 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: text straight away, So why would the Treasurer rob himself 98 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 2: of a bit of cash. So I think you can 99 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 2: take these skilled shortage as they given if you look 100 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 2: into the next decade, and you can take continued high 101 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 2: migration as a given. 102 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: Simon, thank you for talking to Fear and great summer series. 103 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 2: Absolute pleasure. 104 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: That was Simon. Kristen Maha from the Demographics Group. Don't 105 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: forget follow on the podcast. New episodes every day during 106 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: our summer series, and regular shows are back from January twelve. 107 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: I'm Schanoma and this is fearing great summer series.