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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, the fallout from the split

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Speaker 1: and the coalition deepened, with labor set to gain most

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank hits a record high again as the ASX

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Speaker 1: heads towards a new record, and the gender pay gap

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Speaker 1: in the public sector improves but is still real plus

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Speaker 1: four descue Boss Andrew Forrest warns on China dumping Ossie

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Speaker 1: iron Ore and Quantas retakes the top spot in terms

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Speaker 1: of domestic passengers. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty second of May twenty twenty five. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson in Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: A quick mention of the newsletter It seems to be

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Speaker 1: the thing we do now. Is a quick plug for

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Speaker 1: the newsletter at the beginning of the show. Look, it

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Speaker 1: only takes what two or three minutes to read it.

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Speaker 1: It comes out every weekday. It's in your inbox by

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Speaker 1: six am. A cheat sheet to help you base get

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Speaker 1: a head start on your.

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Speaker 2: Colleagues exactly right, exactly right.

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Speaker 1: And you can sign up at Fear and Greed dot

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Speaker 1: com tod au and put a link in today's show

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Speaker 1: notes just so it's ultra easy to do it. Now

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Speaker 1: on with the main story this morning Sean. The fallout

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Speaker 1: from the split by the coalition parties continues, with former

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Tony Abbott calling on the two sides to

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Speaker 1: rejoin and senior Liberal Senator James Patterson saying the Coalition

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Speaker 1: needs to reform as a matter of urgency because of

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Speaker 1: the Libs can't afford to be fighting both Labor and

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Speaker 1: the Nationals.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Pattison said none of the policy demands made

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Speaker 2: by the Nationals leader David little Proud were insurmountable. According

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Speaker 2: to a report in the Finn Review, the only demand

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Speaker 2: that could never be exceeded to is for the Nationals

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Speaker 2: members of the shadow Cabinet not to be bound by

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Speaker 2: cabinet solidarity. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott said history shows

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Speaker 2: that the Liberals and Nationals win together and failed separately.

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Speaker 2: Liberal Elder John Howard, of course, the day before yesterday,

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Speaker 2: called for unit. Meanwhile, National's Deputy leader Kevin Hogan said

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Speaker 2: the decision to split wasn't overwhelming, but it was conclusive.

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Speaker 2: The two parties are at odds over the forced divestiture

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Speaker 2: of supermarkets, nuclear power, establishing a twenty billion dollar Regional

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Speaker 2: Future Fund, and forcing universal service obligations to ensure adequate

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Speaker 2: mobile phone coverage in the Bush, Liberals leader says and

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Speaker 2: Lee said she couldn't give assurances either way on the

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Speaker 2: policies because her party needs to go through a post

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Speaker 2: election review. They haven't done that, and she said, so

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Speaker 2: I can't actually agree to those things until we've done it.

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Speaker 2: Lee intends to name her shadow cabinet today without any

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Speaker 2: national MPs.

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Speaker 1: So how will parliament work then, Sean, because this is

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Speaker 1: really kind of interesting. Now if the Libs only have

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Speaker 1: twenty eight seats in the House of Reps, the crossbenches,

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Speaker 1: which will now include that the Nats that they've got

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Speaker 1: their fifteen MP's there and you've got the tea and

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Speaker 1: the rest on the cross benches. The cross benches is

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Speaker 1: going to be larger than the opposition party, which is

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Speaker 1: the Liberal Party.

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Speaker 2: So there are two seats undecided. If they go against

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Speaker 2: the Libs, which they look like doing. You are right,

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Speaker 2: no doubt, Anthony Alberanezi and Labor they must be happy.

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Speaker 2: At the moment. ALP will have ninety three MPs. That

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Speaker 2: seats in the House of reps. Libs will have twenty eight.

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Speaker 2: The cross benches at the moment are at twenty seven

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Speaker 2: with those two in doubt. Now that means, as you say,

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Speaker 2: you can end up with a cross bench larger than

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Speaker 2: the opposition party. In essence, the government will have plenty

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Speaker 2: of opposition right, but it won't have much unified competition. Personally,

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Speaker 2: I do not think this is a good thing. Governments

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Speaker 2: work best when there is a strong opposition because governments

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Speaker 2: have to work harder no matter what side of politics

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Speaker 2: you follow. So I don't think this is great for Australia.

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Speaker 1: It honestly sounds like chaos.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, app description, Look.

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Speaker 1: You've got an interview coming up after the show, and

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Speaker 1: this is a really interesting take on this whole situation.

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Speaker 1: You're speaking with Tom Switzer, who is the executive director

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Speaker 1: of the Center of Independent Studies.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly right now. Tom, Tom's a former colleague of mine.

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Speaker 2: At the thin review he gives us, he takes a

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Speaker 2: look at why it's not a crisis within the coalition,

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Speaker 2: what's gone on with lives and nats, and he kind

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Speaker 2: of puts it into an a historical perspective. So it's

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Speaker 2: a really interesting take from Tom.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because while they may have only split officially three

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Speaker 1: times in the past eighty years, they've had plenty of

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Speaker 1: disagreements and arguments and things. It's not as though it's

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Speaker 1: been the happiest of marriages the whole way along. No,

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Speaker 1: it is a really interesting take on it, So stick

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Speaker 1: around for that one. It's coming up after the show.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: While all of that is going on in Canberra, the

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Speaker 1: local share market just doesn't care, right, It just keeps

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Speaker 1: getting stronger. It doesn't It is not paying any attention

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Speaker 1: to what's happened.

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Speaker 2: In part. It rose again yesterday on growing confidence of

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Speaker 2: another interest rate cut as soon as July. On Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate by twenty five

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Speaker 2: basis points. Bond markets have now priced in a better

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Speaker 2: than even chance I have two more rate cuts this year.

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Speaker 2: By the close yesterday, the market was up half percent

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Speaker 2: to eight thousand, three hundred and eighty seven points, only

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Speaker 2: a couple of percent below its all time peak earlier

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Speaker 2: this year. But really, once again, it's all about Commonwealth Bank.

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Speaker 2: Its share price hit one hundred and seventy six dollars

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Speaker 2: and forty six cents a share around lunchtime. Yesterday before

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Speaker 2: closing up more than a percent. That was one seventy

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Speaker 2: four sixty five. It's had three intra day records this

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Speaker 2: week and there's only been three trading days, so three

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Speaker 2: and three not bad. It is Abrahammouth worth two hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety two million dollars. It's nearly fifty percent bigger

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Speaker 2: than the number two company BHP. What an amazing run.

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Speaker 1: It is staggering two hundred ninety two billion. What I

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Speaker 1: want to do, if you're okay with this, Sean, we

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Speaker 1: do a bonus episode of Fear and Greed most days.

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Speaker 1: Actually it comes out of midday. It is ask Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed where we kind of answer a question. And

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Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a bit of notice now

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Speaker 1: as to what I'm going to ask you today at midday.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you about Commonwealth Bank because two

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Speaker 1: hundred nine two billion dollars. We've been talking so much

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Speaker 1: about the fact that it is so expensive, Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 1: being super expensive, what it actually means, what it's being

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Speaker 1: compared to, and kind of how it can just keep

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Speaker 1: on going and going and going. So we'll take a

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Speaker 1: deep ish dive, a shallowish dive. I don't know it's

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Speaker 1: a dive into Commonwealth bankfine dive. Happy to do that,

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Speaker 1: Michael belly flop. Perhaps all right, well that's coming up

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Speaker 1: at midday, then Sean, let's take a quick break. We'll

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Speaker 1: be back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news. Sure on, the pay gap between men

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Speaker 1: and women in the public sector is much smaller than

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Speaker 1: the gap in the private sector, but it is still there,

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Speaker 1: with women earning ninety four cents for every dollar that

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Speaker 1: a man earned.

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Speaker 2: That's the findings from the Workplace Gender Equality Agency. It's

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Speaker 2: the first ever gender paygap report for the Commonwealth public sector.

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Speaker 2: Now we're talking about the ABC, Aussie Post Federal Police

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Speaker 2: RBA CSIRO. On average, men earn eight two hundred dollars

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Speaker 2: more than women each year. Based on this work half

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Speaker 2: of the Commonwealth public sector employees have a median total

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Speaker 2: remuneration gender pay gap mouthful lower than four point eight percent,

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Speaker 2: So I mean there's still a pay gap there, but

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Speaker 2: the median is less than five percent in the public sector,

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Speaker 2: that's around nine percent. Men and women have more balanced

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Speaker 2: representation in the upper pay areas of the Commonwealth public sector.

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Speaker 2: If you think of Michelle Bullet runs a reserve bank.

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Speaker 2: Good example. Jenny Wilkinson runs finance. Another good example. Women

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Speaker 2: comprise forty seven percent of the highest paid positions, which

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Speaker 2: explains that narrow gap compared to the private sector, men

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Speaker 2: account for just eleven percent of primary care is taking leave.

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Speaker 2: That's another reason women fall behind in the private sector

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Speaker 2: is that they do take time off as caregivers. Happens

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Speaker 2: in the public sector, just not as much.

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Speaker 1: Sean I mentioned at the top of the show. Fordescue

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Speaker 1: Metals poss Andrew Forrest. He's warned that Australian miners risk

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Speaker 1: being left behind as Chinese manufacturers upgrade plants and shift

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Speaker 1: to iron or better suited to lower emission steelmaking.

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Speaker 2: Quite a controversial comment Andrew Forrest made yesterday. He said

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Speaker 2: Chinese buyers are looking more closely at African and Brazilian deposits.

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Speaker 2: Ford Escue, of course, is the country's third largest iron

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Speaker 2: or producer, with BHP and RIO facing aging minds and

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Speaker 2: falling all grades. Western Australia is the larger exporter of

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Speaker 2: iron ore. China's the biggest importer, taking about seventy two

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Speaker 2: percent of the world supply. Speaking at an AFR Mining conference,

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Speaker 2: mister Forrest said and old quote Rio tinto BHP. They

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Speaker 2: talk a big game, but everyone is going down. The

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Speaker 2: choice is getting made now, and we don't have any

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Speaker 2: time to lose. His point is that it needs to

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Speaker 2: be high grade, greener iron ore.

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Speaker 1: Federal Treasury says the government's push to increase wages above

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Speaker 1: three percent wouldn't be inflationary, which augues well for wage

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Speaker 1: hikes in that range from the Fair Work Commission in

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Speaker 1: the future.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday, the Fairwork Commission held it's annual wage review and

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Speaker 2: asked if wage growth of three point one to three

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Speaker 2: and a quarter percent was inflationary. The answer from Treasury

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Speaker 2: in short, no, inasmuch as the economy can afford that

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Speaker 2: type of increase and still keep inflation in the reserve

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Speaker 2: banks preferred two to three percent target band. Now, the

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Speaker 2: review comes as the ACTU is pushing for a four

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Speaker 2: and a half percent increase for two point nine million

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Speaker 2: a ward wages, pushing for a rise around two point

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Speaker 2: four percent. The government, the federal government has asked for

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Speaker 2: an economically sustainable real increase. Therefore, it's got to be

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Speaker 2: above two point nine percent, so low threes is probably

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Speaker 2: a good bet.

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Speaker 1: James Hardy says that the United States renovations market is

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Speaker 1: weaker than expected, as it pushes ahead with a somewhat

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Speaker 1: controversial fourteen billion dollar buyout of US based outdoor decking

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Speaker 1: group AZAK.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive Aaron Erta told investors the company will be

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Speaker 2: able to offset the weak market conditions by winning market

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Speaker 2: share in its five per cent war clanning and planks business.

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Speaker 2: Investors aren't so sure. James Hardy's share price dropped quite

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Speaker 2: a bit yesterday. It's down twenty three percent since the

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Speaker 2: bid was announced in late March. There's been a substantial

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Speaker 2: drop off in building activity in the past month in

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Speaker 2: the US on the back of Donald Trump's tariff changes

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Speaker 2: adding to the cost of living. Therefore, people aren't renvading

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Speaker 2: as much. Erta expects market volumes across the entire US

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Speaker 2: housing construction market to decline over the next twelve months.

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Speaker 2: James Hardy generates about seventy five percent of its revenues

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Speaker 2: from North America, as it's about ninety nine percent, so

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Speaker 2: obviously it's very important for James Hardy's share price that

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Speaker 2: the building market in the US doesn't drop too much

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Speaker 2: for a.

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Speaker 1: Very brief period three months to be exact. Virgin Australia

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Speaker 1: Sean took the crown as the most popular domestic airline,

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Speaker 1: but Quantus has now won to back again AH.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission figures show that quantus

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Speaker 2: Is domestic market share in three months to the end

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Speaker 2: of March was thirty seven point five percent, Virgin thirty

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Speaker 2: four point four percent, jet Star twenty six point four

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Speaker 2: percent and Regional Express Rex still flying just it had

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Speaker 2: one point seven percent. Quantus did particularly well in the

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Speaker 2: business travel market and Jetstar dropped nearly five percent in

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Speaker 2: the leisure market. The ABC says Virgin's strategic repositioning away

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Speaker 2: from business related travel leaves Quantas with eighty percent of

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Speaker 2: the total corporate segment fifty four percent of the small

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Speaker 2: and medium enterprise market. The report says Quattess and Jetstar

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Speaker 2: have not increased capacity even though demand is higher.

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Speaker 1: Staying in the airline world, which honestly is a very.

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Speaker 2: Kind of great place to be to b yeah, totally.

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Speaker 1: Webjet has blamed the demise of Regional Express for a

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Speaker 1: steep drop in domestic bookings, even though it managed to

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Speaker 1: eke out a small profit.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive Katrina Barry said. The twenty one million dollar

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Speaker 2: profit for the year to the end of March came

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Speaker 2: despite a challenging consumer environment. Helping the bottom line was

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Speaker 2: progress and cunning costs and web Just share price closed

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Speaker 2: up yesterday. While Rex has disappeared, more or less few

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Speaker 2: flights still going thanks to the government funding. Both Quattes

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Speaker 2: and virgin have failed to restore domestic capacity to pre

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Speaker 2: pandemic levels. That's the online travel agency Webjet joins flight

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Speaker 2: Center and corporate travel management and reporting softer trading conditions

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Speaker 2: as international affairs continue to fall.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international News Now Sewan, it has been days

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Speaker 1: since we last talked about Elon Musk, so we must

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Speaker 1: rectify that immediately. He says that he has committed to

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Speaker 1: still leading Tesla five years from now and expects to

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Speaker 1: reduce his political spending as he works to come investor

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Speaker 1: concerns about the future of the ev company.

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Speaker 2: The billionaire offered new details about his plans in an

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Speaker 2: interview with Bloomberg News. He repeated his criticism of a

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Speaker 2: number of people, from Bill Gates to a Delaware judge's

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Speaker 2: twice ruled against his massive Tesla paypackage. The fifty three

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Speaker 2: year old down paid the extent of Tesla's challenges, saying

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Speaker 2: that it's already turned around. He disputed the extent to

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Speaker 2: which he's damaged Tesla's brand, saying that while the company

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Speaker 2: may be losing some sales among consumers on the political left,

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Speaker 2: he gained others on the right. He criticized Tesla protesters.

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Speaker 2: He said they've committed massive violence against his company, saying

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Speaker 2: they're on the wrong side of History's thing to sound

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Speaker 2: just a little bit like Donald trum Trump.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, the massive violence line. Yes, it is very

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Speaker 1: trump best, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: It is. It is a bit disturbing.

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Speaker 1: Really, I suppose it's inevitable when you hang around this

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Speaker 1: on I've started talking like you.

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Speaker 2: No you haven't, Mike.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes I just go a little bit of and

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Speaker 1: that's just a throwback to the how you used to

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Speaker 1: say that, particularly on the weekend edition. Anyway. Up next

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Speaker 1: is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Tom Switzer is

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Speaker 1: your guest, A great conversation all about the Can we

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Speaker 1: say it's a circus in Canberra right now?

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Speaker 2: Well, Tom would never say it's a circus. Oh I'm

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Speaker 2: not going you can, but I'm on Tom sign all right,

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Speaker 2: it's a circus.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com DoD au,

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Speaker 1: which is where you can join the growing number of

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Speaker 1: people signing up for the free daily Fear and Greed newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the twenty second of May twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online as well on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 1: a great day.