Speaker 1: From the Skying Center. This is Paul Burray live. Indeedly Caleb.
Speaker 1: When it comes to humans, I am a wagu plus nine,
Speaker 1: whatever the rating is, whatever the maximum one is for
Speaker 1: a little muscle movement. Very well marveled. That'd be me,
Speaker 1: all right, Welcome to the show. Lots to get to
Speaker 1: tonight here in the man Cave. Now tonight, before we
Speaker 1: get into the politics, we're going to talk about something terrible.
Speaker 1: It's been happening, particularly in New South Wales, an awful
Speaker 1: lot of people that have been drowning. It's been a
Speaker 1: little bit warm. People need to settle down and be
Speaker 1: careful around water, especially people who for some reason still
Speaker 1: do the rock fishing. I'm going to explain that in
Speaker 1: a second Sunday Night, definitely on a public holiday. Hardcore
Speaker 1: politics to night of course, the state of the Race,
Speaker 1: Cos Samaras with the numbers, Michael Kroger with the opinion
Speaker 1: on it all. And this time next week I'm going
Speaker 1: to be living a dream because I am going to
Speaker 1: be in beautiful Cowghoolie in Western Australia. If you would
Speaker 1: like to join us in the room. And I know
Speaker 1: that there's the nullable muster up the road. But that's okay,
Speaker 1: do this said, and I turned around, come back, say
Speaker 1: ourtown at skynews dot com dot AU. Next Sunday night
Speaker 1: will be in Cowgooley in mighty Western Australia. Let's fill
Speaker 1: the room ourtown at skynews dot com dot A. You now,
Speaker 1: as I say, before I get to the politics, and
Speaker 1: obviously that's the main focus, particularly on a Sunday night.
Speaker 1: There have been half a dozen people who have died
Speaker 1: in the waters off New South Wales this easter. Now
Speaker 1: they claim it's because the weather is ever so slightly warmer,
Speaker 1: so people are going back and they're going to places
Speaker 1: that are frankly unpatrolled. There's not as many life savers.
Speaker 1: Some of them are even shut down because of course
Speaker 1: it's no longer the official swimming season. But also there
Speaker 1: are too many people and I mean too many people
Speaker 1: who are going rock fishing. Now, if that's how you
Speaker 1: get your kicks, if you don't have the safety vest,
Speaker 1: if you don't have the equipment, because inevitably, what Mother
Speaker 1: Nature will do is produce a wave out of nowhere
Speaker 1: that could knock you off your feet. Apart from the
Speaker 1: fact that you could end up banging your head and
Speaker 1: then like some people washing into the water, you could
Speaker 1: just get washed into the water with very little ability
Speaker 1: to fight back. This is a matter of life and
Speaker 1: death in Australia. We love our water, but we are
Speaker 1: at times not prepared for it. Here's the Life Savers
Speaker 1: today on TV after a pretty bad weekend, which of
Speaker 1: course still has another day to go day away from
Speaker 1: the rocks at the edges. Rivers can also be dangerous.
Speaker 2: You know, we want people to stay safe, we want
Speaker 2: people to be able to go home at the end
Speaker 2: of the Easter break.
Speaker 1: Now, reality is the Easter break flows pretty quickly into
Speaker 1: Anzac Day. A lot of people will obviously have the
Speaker 1: public holidays of Friday, Sunday, Monday. Then they're going to
Speaker 1: take Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday off in order sugar another long
Speaker 1: weekend when it comes to Anzac Day, so lots of
Speaker 1: people are going to be close to the water. And
Speaker 1: just the past couple of days there have been house
Speaker 1: this fifty rescues up and down the coast of New
Speaker 1: South Wales. It could be a similar story somewhere else,
Speaker 1: but it's just a warning to everyone. As relaxed as
Speaker 1: we are, we can't be relaxed about the reality that
Speaker 1: humans and water sometimes it doesn't mix.
Speaker 3: Today alone, there have been fifty rescues, with another one
Speaker 3: hundred lives saved since Good Friday, thirty of them involving
Speaker 3: the Westpac Rescue helicopter. Close calls today including a rock
Speaker 3: fisherman at Bass Point on the South coast and another
Speaker 3: at a voca further north at Coffs Harbor. Three swimmers
Speaker 3: were pulled from the water by life savers.
Speaker 1: Please take it easy and thank you to those in
Speaker 1: the volunteer and professional services who are there to help.
Speaker 1: We honestly are a better place because of your service
Speaker 1: and something that all of us should never take for granted.
Speaker 1: All Right, election, thirteen days until we know whether the
Speaker 1: government gets rehired or there is a new broom coming
Speaker 1: through Canberra. Just two days until the first votes are cast.
Speaker 1: And in an election when apparently there are a huge
Speaker 1: number of undecideds, does that mean they will all rush
Speaker 1: vote early to get it done. Do they wait till
Speaker 1: the end? Do the hyperpartisans make the most of these
Speaker 1: few extra days regardless of whether it's a public holiday
Speaker 1: or not. The services are going to be open Tuesday,
Speaker 1: Wednesday and Thursday, so we'll all be keeping a very
Speaker 1: close eye on what's happening. But voting starts in the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five election in just two days' time. This
Speaker 1: week we'll also have another debate that one is of
Speaker 1: course going to be over on Channel nine on the
Speaker 1: same day that voting does begin. Now, today, the Prime
Speaker 1: Minister lived up to his each way albo tag that
Speaker 1: we have given him, which is he says that Peter
Speaker 1: Dutton is injecting too much machismo, he's too matcho, he's
Speaker 1: too blokey. He said this today while going onto the
Speaker 1: footy show in Rugby League Territory and passing the football.
Speaker 1: Imagine if Tony Abbott had done this toxic mathculinity. But
Speaker 1: because it's albo, oh, it's just him being a good
Speaker 1: bloke right. Hence why we say each way albo. It
Speaker 1: applies in a campaign as much as it does in governance. Now,
Speaker 1: of course, play are spending when it comes to this government,
Speaker 1: but thankfully they've held off for the past couple of days.
Speaker 1: But Mark Knight, the excellent cartoonist for The Herald's Sun, well,
Speaker 1: he decided to link the excessive spending and excessive promises
Speaker 1: of Anthony Aberne. Is he with the holiday? It's Easter
Speaker 1: time and I hope the Easter Bunny is paid you
Speaker 1: all visit this weekend. Of course, there is another bunny
Speaker 1: traveling around the country at the moment.
Speaker 4: Delivering handouts to absolutely everybody, and.
Speaker 1: That would be the Prime Minister.
Speaker 5: Do I've called the Easter ol Bunny easy like that?
Speaker 1: Well, you might see him hopping through your neighborhood as
Speaker 1: he goes from an electric to electric during his campaign.
Speaker 4: Giving handouts to anybody who's close by.
Speaker 1: This is the full cartoon that is in the Herald
Speaker 1: Sun today. I like Mark Knight, always feel us always
Speaker 1: on point and a very good point that the Prime
Speaker 1: Minister considers himself to be the Easter Bunny right now.
Speaker 1: And of course he's spent plenty of money since January.
Speaker 4: A seven point two billion dollar announcement today five million
Speaker 4: dollars ten million dollar, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollar,
Speaker 4: three hundred and fifty million dollar, two billion dollars, thirty
Speaker 4: seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar,
Speaker 4: two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar,
Speaker 4: four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars three point
Speaker 4: four billion dollars two point eight billion dollars two one
Speaker 4: hundred million dollar, one hundred and fifty million dollar, one
Speaker 4: billion dollar, two hundred and forty five million dollars, six
Speaker 4: million dollars, three million dollars, ten billion dollars.
Speaker 1: Never gets old, but you'll find a new way to
Speaker 1: add to it, no doubt in a couple of days
Speaker 1: when there's sort of attention on the election, but certainly
Speaker 1: the votes start being cast, there will be no doubt
Speaker 1: more promises over the next thirteen days two until the
Speaker 1: voting begins. As for Peter Dunnan, he's been at many
Speaker 1: religious services, including one in Sydney's West on Friday, apparently
Speaker 1: attended by twenty thousand people. What a huge number of
Speaker 1: people that were there and a perfect sign again of
Speaker 1: his focus when it comes to wider community is the
Speaker 1: Christian Maronite community, I believe is the one behind that one.
Speaker 1: He went to the Easter show, as did the Prime Minister,
Speaker 1: which means, oh, the politicians can work out who was
Speaker 1: cheering and who was booing and what's the metaphor if
Speaker 1: they're standing in front of this one or that one,
Speaker 1: will they walk past a write you know? How it
Speaker 1: works anyway, as for an a fficial Easter message, and
Speaker 1: again happy Easter to everyone who marks the occasion for
Speaker 1: its religious significance. This is what the alternative Prime Minister
Speaker 1: had to say in his Easter message today.
Speaker 6: Remember what is important in life and what is important
Speaker 6: his family, our friends, and our society, our community, and
Speaker 6: doing whatever we can to make sure that the future
Speaker 6: of this great country will always be exactly that.
Speaker 1: Now we know the media have spun as hard as
Speaker 1: they can, certainly for months, but definitely for the weeks
Speaker 1: of this election in favor of the Prime Minister. Now,
Speaker 1: if the polls are right, the Prime Minister's headed to
Speaker 1: another term in Parliament as the Prime Minister, be it
Speaker 1: minority or maybe even slim majority. Potentially that would be
Speaker 1: extraordinary if he was able to achieve that. So you
Speaker 1: think that a few hard questions might be coming the
Speaker 1: way of the Prime Minister, but of course not. The
Speaker 1: media is there to get him re elected, not to
Speaker 1: hold him to account. We passed the halfway point in
Speaker 1: the campaign. The polls are increasingly positive for Labor. That's
Speaker 1: positive for the coalition. You must confident now if you're going.
Speaker 6: For the fining two weeks better report today than your
Speaker 6: campaign chair as welcome the baby girl, pretty the world.
Speaker 1: How much eternity leaders are you going to get? And
Speaker 1: any message for new parents? Yeah, I mean be still
Speaker 1: my beating heart. We're even giving a little shout out
Speaker 1: to the campaign chairs now. Of course, for Peter Dunton,
Speaker 1: the government is more than happy to you fill the
Speaker 1: media with as much info as possible to say he
Speaker 1: can't get out of first gear because if he gets
Speaker 1: out of first gear, he might be able to pull
Speaker 1: off the miracle win and we can't have twenty nineteen
Speaker 1: all over again. So here are the questions of the
Speaker 1: alternative prime minister. It's but the difference.
Speaker 6: Do you regret hitching your wagon to nuclear and do
Speaker 6: you think you've done enough to sell it this campaign?
Speaker 5: So far?
Speaker 3: On your small business lunch policy, you've only mentioned it
Speaker 3: once in three weeks, so you still committed to it?
Speaker 5: And why aren't you talking about you visited more.
Speaker 3: Than ten petrol stations on this campaign.
Speaker 2: Why haven't you visited a single proposed nuclear power sign.
Speaker 2: Why should members of the Australia's multiple your community vote
Speaker 2: for you giving you a hard stance of immigration? Well,
Speaker 2: why is it so hard for you to just say
Speaker 2: climate change and acknowledge that it exists.
Speaker 1: Don't you love this? How many times have we said
Speaker 1: over the fifteen years we've been together here about immigration,
Speaker 1: that it's not about what people believe in, it's not
Speaker 1: what they look like, it's not from where they come from,
Speaker 1: as long as obviously anywhere that anyone comes from, they agree.
Speaker 1: In the egalitarian Australia, they agree the law of the
Speaker 1: land is more important than a near religious law. We
Speaker 1: fully accept people to love who they want to love,
Speaker 1: marry who they want to marry, all the normal stuff, right.
Speaker 1: We respect in fact revere women in this country, and
Speaker 1: the men who are decent would die for the women
Speaker 1: in their lives, not cause them trouble, and anyone who
Speaker 1: does is a low life. But of course any conversation
Speaker 1: about immigration, they try to turn it into some sort
Speaker 1: of a conversation about race. No, no, no, it's about
Speaker 1: the reality that if so many people can't afford a house,
Speaker 1: if so many people can't find a place to live,
Speaker 1: why would you tip another million people on on top
Speaker 1: of that, extending every queue and every state ambulance Ramping
Speaker 1: is a problem, meaning when you call triple o they
Speaker 1: may or may not turn up, and even if you
Speaker 1: do get in the back of an ambulance, you're not
Speaker 1: going to get into the hospital. Ycus is not enough beds. No, no,
Speaker 1: let's tip another midion in do you like how they
Speaker 1: deliberately and intention They know that, but they deliberately and
Speaker 1: intentionally try to link the word immigration to race, because
Speaker 1: of course that is the way that the modern left
Speaker 1: likes to talk about things, like in the United States,
Speaker 1: they don't talk about the difference between legal and illegal immigration.
Speaker 1: Ten million people crossed into the country over its borders
Speaker 1: through the southern border, more likely than coming down from Canada.
Speaker 1: The American government wants to get rid of the people
Speaker 1: who came in illegally. But no, no, no, they're racist
Speaker 1: because they're all migrants. Know there is an absolute difference,
Speaker 1: And anyone who knows people that have come to the
Speaker 1: country know the people who waited, filled out the forms,
Speaker 1: did the homework and pass the tests think very poorly
Speaker 1: of those who come in illegally. So it is a
Speaker 1: complicated issue, but it is not that difficult to understand
Speaker 1: why Australians want a pause in more people being added
Speaker 1: to every version of the queue that exists in Australia.
Speaker 1: But my phone went kaboom on Thursday night when the
Speaker 1: host from the ABC well yet again showed their political colors.
Speaker 1: Now Here is a scenario where Clara, now the Housing Minister,
Speaker 1: was well doing what she normally does, which is carrying
Speaker 1: on like a two bob watch, trying to show that
Speaker 1: she's the future of the Labor Party. Look at her,
Speaker 1: she's a girl boss. Here she is whacking the Libs
Speaker 1: around the face. Although significantly higher. That's sorry, they were
Speaker 1: thirty thousand.
Speaker 5: Short of what the coult That's not right, Michael.
Speaker 1: Labour not going to be at one point two. That's
Speaker 1: the point, Labor. Under Claire's watch, we're.
Speaker 6: Delivering fewer homes than we've had for well over a decab.
Speaker 2: Well, that's absolutely untrue again Michael.
Speaker 1: And they get to deliver a single hope, that's true.
Speaker 1: Let's sell well, we all fund so sure for that's it.
Speaker 2: You're not getting an ounce so you'll announcer.
Speaker 1: Out of me.
Speaker 6: Through the Affordable Housing Bond aggregator, we've supported thirteen thousand
Speaker 6: homes old run.
Speaker 1: So did you build thirteen?
Speaker 7: Did you build.
Speaker 1: Thirteens higher than? And then today all the rooms are
Speaker 1: that tried to do so. But when the liberal spokesperson
Speaker 1: tries to fight back and dare interrupt clueless Clear O'Neil,
Speaker 1: the absolutely independent host who, as you see, never pulled
Speaker 1: up Claire O'Neil. Look what she did to the lips.
Speaker 2: We are building fifty five thousand social and affordable homes
Speaker 2: over five years, twenty eight thousand, twenty eight thousand of
Speaker 2: those home Resmarchaels, what would.
Speaker 1: Your mother say hearing you interrupt her? Just I've been
Speaker 1: interrupted the entire time.
Speaker 2: Just please, it's okay. I'm unflappable, Sarah. I've done this
Speaker 2: my third run at this this.
Speaker 1: Week, darlily An. They always spit the poor. We show
Speaker 1: you the receipts. They will all keep marching on and
Speaker 1: doing what they do. Now, I think the biggest thing
Speaker 1: that happened in politics this weekend happened on the Sunshine Coast,
Speaker 1: and it happened with Clyde Palmer Clyde Park via the
Speaker 1: Trumpeter patriots made their announcement when it comes to preferences. Now,
Speaker 1: this is what he said, and he is going to
Speaker 1: put essentially all sitting MP's last. I'll explain why that is.
Speaker 1: A massive boost for the Labor Party and a big
Speaker 1: problem for the coalition. In a second, it's dumb and dumber.
Speaker 8: It's tweedled, dumb and tweedled. It's B one and B two.
Speaker 8: That's why the Trumpet of Patriots has placed every sitting
Speaker 8: Labor member last in every Labor held seat, and every
Speaker 8: sitting Liberal member last and every Liberal health seat.
Speaker 1: Now, of course, Trumpeter Patriots is the new version of
Speaker 1: the United Australian Party. The United Australian Party, which had
Speaker 1: been deregistered in between the last two elections, did have
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of members, So why it was the
Speaker 1: registered Who knows who cares? But the reality is Trumpet
Speaker 1: of Patriots is the one that's doing all the ads.
Speaker 1: It's the one with the yellow colors. It is the
Speaker 1: one that is the Clyde Palmer Party in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Now again, the simple maths here is that yes, there
Speaker 1: are more Labor seats than there are Liberal seats. But
Speaker 1: what about the margins by which each party is attacking
Speaker 1: or defending. That's when this preference deal starts to absolutely
Speaker 1: work in favor of the Labor Party. Let me explain.
Speaker 1: These are the seats of the Labor Party is currently
Speaker 1: holding under two percent, being along Gilmore Means his Lions
Speaker 1: and Lingiari the United Australia Party, which of course now
Speaker 1: is the Trumpet Patriots. It got more than two percent
Speaker 1: in each and every one of those seats, meaning that
Speaker 1: if those were immediately sent back towards the Libs, it
Speaker 1: could be the difference between Labour holding onto a seat
Speaker 1: or losing a seat. In the seats of four percent,
Speaker 1: there essentially is no major change, but in Robertson, Patterson,
Speaker 1: Boothby and Chisholm up to almost four percent, particularly in
Speaker 1: Patterson would matter. But essentially it is really those first
Speaker 1: few seats that end up being the main areas that
Speaker 1: the Labour Party would become nervous about. Well, guess what,
Speaker 1: there's actually a larger number of seats that are held
Speaker 1: by the Liberal and National Party under the two percent margin.
Speaker 1: So by going against the sitting MP in Deacon Sturt, More, Canning,
Speaker 1: not necessarily Bass Casey and Dixon, which of course is
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton's seat, all of those suddenly could become vulnerable. Now,
Speaker 1: if people do follow the how to vote card, then
Speaker 1: you are talking about a significant number that is going
Speaker 1: to be moving against the sitting MP, which numerically is
Speaker 1: going to be more relevant in the wafer thin margins
Speaker 1: held by the Liberal Party than the waf of thin
Speaker 1: margins held by the Labor Party. In fact, if you
Speaker 1: have a look at the four percent margins Banks, Longman,
Speaker 1: BONNERI like Ar't Hughes and Flynn, but particularly in Flynn
Speaker 1: and Banks and Longman and Hughes. Now that was where
Speaker 1: Craig Kelly was running as the United Australian Party leader
Speaker 1: the last election. All of those again could have significant
Speaker 1: impacts on the Liberal Party's ability to defend a seat.
Speaker 1: So put simply, by putting everyone last, it's going to
Speaker 1: advantage the Labor Party because they have fewer seats in
Speaker 1: the margins where the Trumpeter Patriots vote could be decisive.
Speaker 1: If people follow those how to vote cards, the Trumpeter Patriots'
Speaker 1: preferences could hurt up to seven Labor MPs, but could
Speaker 1: hurt up to seventeen Liberal and National Party MPs. Now
Speaker 1: by putting everyone last, it means that he is preferencing
Speaker 1: the Teals before Labor and before Liberal in many different seats.
Speaker 1: Of course, the Teals are running against Liberals would help
Speaker 1: for Teal candidates who'd like to defeat a Liberal candidate,
Speaker 1: but in fairness, it could hurt the sitting six Teal candidates.
Speaker 1: What I find odd about this is not it's a
Speaker 1: bug of the whole system. It's that very obviously they
Speaker 1: know their numbers, very obviously, they know their margins, so
Speaker 1: very obviously they know which of the two political sides
Speaker 1: it was going to hurt. Now, this is the same
Speaker 1: essential messaging that in the twenty nineteen campaign went full
Speaker 1: bore against Bill Shorten Phil Bore. So it's coming from
Speaker 1: the right. So for it to hurt the Liberal and
Speaker 1: National Party either in the two headed contest when it
Speaker 1: comes to Liberal labor, or to hurt when it comes
Speaker 1: to the Teals trying to take over from a lib.
Speaker 1: It is essentially going to be a very significant issue
Speaker 1: here because preference discipline with people who vote one Nation
Speaker 1: or vote Trumpeter Patriots or vote Libertarian, is going to
Speaker 1: be the difference between a close election or one hell
Speaker 1: of a blowout. Remember this is what the leader of
Speaker 1: the Trumpeter Patriots said on Saturday after the preference decision
Speaker 1: had been made. So very obviously you would suggest that
Speaker 1: she is coming from the right of Australian politics.
Speaker 2: And Australia needs many of the policies of the Trump
Speaker 2: administration which will be effective in bringing Australia back on track.
Speaker 1: But when you go to the website of the Trumpeter
Speaker 1: of Patriots and you have a look at the how
Speaker 1: to votes in the different seats, the wanna be Teals
Speaker 1: are preferenced second more than anyone else in the goes
Speaker 1: Trumpeter Patriots straight to Teals in cap on the mid
Speaker 1: North Coast of New South Wales, and amazingly in the
Speaker 1: seat of Bradfield, where the number one option apart from
Speaker 1: Trumpeter Patriots for Trumpeter Patriots voters, as instructed by the
Speaker 1: Trumpeter Patriots, is to vote for the Teal And this
Speaker 1: is the Teal candidate who is going to get the
Speaker 1: preferences from Trumpeter Patrients in Bradfield.
Speaker 9: How do I let my friends know that Community Independence
Speaker 9: aren't a party?
Speaker 5: Well, we know how to party. I think that's probably
Speaker 5: worth nice. I think that, yeah, it's a really good question.
Speaker 9: There's a lot of is the desiituation out there about that,
Speaker 9: and I think that I think it's really hard right
Speaker 9: because I just don't think that people understand what we're
Speaker 9: doing here.
Speaker 1: Now. I don't want to start another blood feud with
Speaker 1: Clive Palmer. Much louder voice and more money that many
Speaker 1: of us could ever dream of, and we're buried the
Speaker 1: hatchet a long time ago, So Clive, I'm not trying
Speaker 1: to start a new fight here, Okay. All I'm trying
Speaker 1: to understand is, well, yes, you talk about the UNI Party,
Speaker 1: and there's no difference between the Liberal Party and the
Speaker 1: Labor Party. The difference of this decision is that it
Speaker 1: will result in potentially much fewer Liberal MPs, which could
Speaker 1: result in much more labor MPs. It could result in
Speaker 1: teals replacing liberals and would that not take the country
Speaker 1: further away from the stated goals of the Trumpeter patriots?
Speaker 1: Or am I missing something? You got my number? You
Speaker 1: can text me if you want, or we'll come on
Speaker 1: the show and talk about it. I'm not shilling for
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party here. It's just this is a terrible government.
Speaker 1: This is a terrible government that deserves to be pushed
Speaker 1: right to the edge, if not over it. These preferences
Speaker 1: could well save them. I don't get it. As for
Speaker 1: the election, is it closer than we think? Well, who
Speaker 1: do you trust if you trust the book is The
Speaker 1: answer is no, hell no. In fact, because the latest
Speaker 1: odds sports bet Liberals at four dollars thirty the Labor
Speaker 1: Party of twenty two lad Broke's better dollar twenty tab
Speaker 1: at a dollar twenty blowouts basically and by the way
Speaker 1: I think in sports bet it's basically the same money
Speaker 1: between a majority or a minority right now for Labor.
Speaker 1: So things in terms of the bookies absolutely going Labour's
Speaker 1: way tonight theatest news pole has dropped. It is exactly
Speaker 1: the same even including the primary votes than last week,
Speaker 1: which either means the coalition has steadied the bleeding. But
Speaker 1: if nothing else, obviously it's in a world of paine
Speaker 1: at fifty two forty eight. And I want to ask
Speaker 1: our stats guys tonight, Okay, if it's fifty two to
Speaker 1: forty eight, why are we looking at other poles telling
Speaker 1: us that the Labour Party could still lose half a
Speaker 1: dozen seats. Surely if they're nationally above, they should be
Speaker 1: above everywhere else. Of course, the answer is swings and
Speaker 1: all the rest of it. But how look at that
Speaker 1: primary vote? Remember the last election one nation got five
Speaker 1: percent of the vote. It's now up to seven percent.
Speaker 1: It's consistent in all the polls that they are higher
Speaker 1: than they were last time. That's why Pauline Hanson, being
Speaker 1: very aggressive, very anti Albanezy, is telling everyone preference the
Speaker 1: Libs before you get to Labor. I'm saying you put
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party up there at number two. Why because
Speaker 1: that's the only way to defeat the Labor Party. Once
Speaker 1: you send your vote out across fifteen different candidates, there's
Speaker 1: a chance statistically that you don't end up changing the seat.
Speaker 1: You just end up sending your vote on a very
Speaker 1: long walk. However, this is the stuff that's going to
Speaker 1: really start to hurt Liberal supporters. But stick with me.
Speaker 1: I'll give you some hope. In a second all right,
Speaker 1: cost of living, Labour's winning that one thirty one twenty eight,
Speaker 1: everyone else neither undecided, both equally tax. Labor is leading
Speaker 1: the coalition thirty three to twenty five on the question
Speaker 1: of would be better at handling lowering taxes helping Australiers
Speaker 1: by their first House twenty nine to twenty four, relatively even,
Speaker 1: but still Labor in front. In health, it won't surprise
Speaker 1: you that it's forty two twenty two as for the
Speaker 1: overall economy. Now again I don't understand how one people say.
Speaker 1: They say one thing about tax, they say another thing
Speaker 1: about cost of living. But when it comes to the
Speaker 1: overall economy, Coalition leading Labor thirty four to twenty nine,
Speaker 1: and on defense thirty five to twenty three in favor
Speaker 1: of the coalition. Meantime, according to the Yuga pole that
Speaker 1: dropped this weekend, and again we're all about the data,
Speaker 1: We're all about the grains of sand on the beach.
Speaker 1: This is how nothing will be a surprise when voting
Speaker 1: starts on Tuesday. Labor is apparently in an eighteen month
Speaker 1: high in their primary vote. Why because they say it
Speaker 1: is equal. Now the Coalition, which got close to forty
Speaker 1: in this poll is now down to thirty three. The
Speaker 1: Labour Party is basically where they were at the last
Speaker 1: election at thirty three. Paul In Hansen still at seven. Remember,
Speaker 1: if you're going to devote one nation or anything else
Speaker 1: on the right of center, then clearly you should prioritize
Speaker 1: the government that you want after the candidate that you want.
Speaker 1: Otherwise Labour sticks around two party preferred fifty three forty
Speaker 1: seven according to you gov. Also Redbridge now you can
Speaker 1: see what you're going to see here is four different lines.
Speaker 1: The most recent is the most recent poll, the one
Speaker 1: below that is the week before that, the week before that,
Speaker 1: and then where we started things about four and a
Speaker 1: bit weeks ago. You can see for Labor it's got
Speaker 1: better as the four weeks have gone. For Coalition it
Speaker 1: has got worse over the past four weeks. But and
Speaker 1: I said there was a raise of hope. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about cost of living. Because cost of living, which has
Speaker 1: been the number one election issue and has been for
Speaker 1: the past how many years we're banned on about it?
Speaker 1: How many night? It's why because it's where Australians are.
Speaker 1: The ABC is starting to notice this because you know
Speaker 1: that vote compass thing which basically put in the information
Speaker 1: that tells you you're going to vote green. Well, it
Speaker 1: is showing that the most important issue is cost of living,
Speaker 1: followed by economy and finance, government operations, then climate change, housing, healthcare, immigration,
Speaker 1: gender equality which is a less than one percent issue,
Speaker 1: or even retirement benefits and social services according to their compass.
Speaker 1: Why does this matter because cost of living, yes, slightly
Speaker 1: leaning in favor of the government. In the news polet
Speaker 1: in the Freshwater pole. It is slightly leaning in favor
Speaker 1: of the coalition. This means the coalition's messaging should be
Speaker 1: one thing and one thing only every day between now
Speaker 1: and the election. Which is the shopping list of things
Speaker 1: that will happen if you vote for the Liberal Party.
Speaker 1: Number one twelve hundred dollars, automatic tax return, Number two
Speaker 1: twenty five cents, harving of the petrol tax. Number three,
Speaker 1: instant asset right off for businesses up to thirty thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: Number four put them in whatever order they want. Tax
Speaker 1: deductibility for people that are paying off their first home.
Speaker 1: There are people there who are still soft and still
Speaker 1: able to move. But the pole that did worry me
Speaker 1: the most today in terms of if we're going to
Speaker 1: keep the government or get rid of them, was this
Speaker 1: detailed run through. In the red Bridge polling, the question
Speaker 1: was what would you say the biggest hesitations or concerns
Speaker 1: for only for labor or Anthony Abernesi. The dark red
Speaker 1: is the most recent pole, the pink is the one
Speaker 1: before that. So let's go off the most recent numbers
Speaker 1: forty seven percent. And remember these are all out of
Speaker 1: one hundred. They don't all add up to one hundred.
Speaker 1: Lack of action on cost of living seat, that's the
Speaker 1: opportunity for the Libs. The shopping list of what is available,
Speaker 1: ram at home with every ad you've got for the
Speaker 1: next little while. Now that's forty seven percent. Management of
Speaker 1: the economy, lack of progress in their first term. There
Speaker 1: links to the union movement and just twenty four percent
Speaker 1: of people saying it's Anthony Albanese's personality as leader. Now
Speaker 1: these are apparently people in swing seats, so again it's
Speaker 1: not about the hard cores that are in hardcore Red
Speaker 1: or hardcore Blue. This is in the question Mark territory.
Speaker 1: The problem for the LID in this polling up by
Speaker 1: ten points. Peter Dutton's personality as leader is the biggest
Speaker 1: hesitation for people as to why they wouldn't vote coalition
Speaker 1: or for Peter Dutton as the leader of the coalition
Speaker 1: forty five percent. Our lack of policy detail. Did they
Speaker 1: leave it too late to tell us what they were
Speaker 1: planning to do? The coalition's too close to Trump basically
Speaker 1: because we would follow the examples being set by Trump
Speaker 1: thirty four percent. The performance of the Morrison government thirty
Speaker 1: two percent. Their plan for nuclear power in fact, more
Speaker 1: people saying the reason not devote liberal is because of
Speaker 1: the last government, not the plans of a future government.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that with Michael Kroger in a moment
Speaker 1: or to time. Lots to unveil, lots to pull apart
Speaker 1: with them, and the way that we like to do
Speaker 1: it each and every Sunday night is to get right
Speaker 1: into the detail, and we like to call it none
Speaker 1: other than the State of the Race. We'll take a
Speaker 1: quick break, we'll be back with them as we get
Speaker 1: into the data, into the detail, and I really do
Speaker 1: want to have a conversation about those polls that are
Speaker 1: turning around and telling us about what's going to hold
Speaker 1: people back Tomorrow and night on the show, we're going
Speaker 1: to go deep into the muck that is social media.
Speaker 1: But enough for me. Let's get to the detail. Thoughts
Speaker 1: ports going ONews dot com dot Are you stay of
Speaker 1: the race this Sunday night here on Pulmurray Life. Thanks
Speaker 1: for watching, Thank you so much for watching. Let's get
Speaker 1: into it now. Let's go hardcore, especially on a Sunday night.
Speaker 1: Happy Easter to Costam Marius from the Red Bridge Organization
Speaker 1: and none of them, Michael Kraeger thank you, sir, Happy
Speaker 1: East to you the liberal legend out of Victoria. Lots
Speaker 1: to get to, including an awful lot of data to
Speaker 1: play with tonight, and I will get into this preference
Speaker 1: stuff because it is going to matter. We're down to
Speaker 1: fractions of fractions and votes start on Tuesday. All right,
Speaker 1: let's get to this here, because what if anything is
Speaker 1: interesting you in all of the data that we're around
Speaker 1: at the moment, is anything moving about and in what direction?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's just a continuation of the coalition losing a
Speaker 5: lot of votes to minor parties, very significant numbers. So
Speaker 5: even in our track which you you put up there
Speaker 5: just before, I mean it's eleven percent dropping victory alone
Speaker 5: in primary vote and a lot of it just going
Speaker 5: to minor parties. And it's happening nationally. It's happening very
Speaker 5: big numbers. And then the preferences are not coming back
Speaker 5: to them. And you know, we could talk about, you know,
Speaker 5: with the impact that that parton might have in that space,
Speaker 5: but it's going to be pretty tough for Peter Dutton
Speaker 5: and his team to get anywhere near close to be
Speaker 5: able to negotiate with that cross bench. It's looking pretty grim.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I look on all of this data, you can
Speaker 1: only really conclude one thing, which is it's a conversation
Speaker 1: about majority or minority when it comes to labor. But Michael, again,
Speaker 1: same stuff about this data. Are we now in a
Speaker 1: conversation where we are discussing you know, there's always a
Speaker 1: chance or as possibility, but we are now talking about
Speaker 1: majority minority here or on a day, this and that
Speaker 1: and all the rest of it.
Speaker 7: Well, the pole has been wrong before on many occasions.
Speaker 7: We know if that poll is right, then Alberici probably
Speaker 7: wins with the minority government. But I just can't help
Speaker 7: but thinking that's right. I mean, look at Victoria for example, Paul. So,
Speaker 7: the labor primary vote dropped four percent at the last
Speaker 7: election in Victoria, right, but in twelve of its seats
Speaker 7: the swing again the primary vote again dropping in labor,
Speaker 7: was five to fourteen percent. So there are number of
Speaker 7: seats eight nine, ten percent and Scullon was fourteen percent
Speaker 7: if you've got Holt, Fraser, Gorton, Carewell, Scullon. So what
Speaker 7: does that mean. It means that the swing against labor
Speaker 7: was very heavily in its own safe seats. So given
Speaker 7: that Labor have run a very traditional campaign, which is
Speaker 7: the usual in medicares under attack again, it's going to
Speaker 7: be sold, bashed, you know, slashed and burned, et cetera,
Speaker 7: as the usual campaign of lies. That appeals very much
Speaker 7: to Labour's base. So I wonder whether Labour's vote, say
Speaker 7: in Victoria and maybe nationally, is returning to the Labor
Speaker 7: Party in its safe seats and not so much in
Speaker 7: the marke Tools and that's where Peter Dutton would be
Speaker 7: very much alive. The second thing I'll put to cause though,
Speaker 7: is a month ago, because you had the Coalition four
Speaker 7: percent in front in two party preferred terms and you've
Speaker 7: got the nine behind. So do you think there's been
Speaker 7: a six and a half percent swing two party preferred
Speaker 7: against the Coalition in the last month, Because that's a
Speaker 7: man's number.
Speaker 5: And this pole that we're talking about is in key seats,
Speaker 5: not in the safe seats, So these are marginal seats.
Speaker 5: It's not in your halls, not in your phrases, and
Speaker 5: it's not because the Labor Party is picking up votes.
Speaker 5: It's because Peter Dutton and the Coalition are losing to
Speaker 5: the minor parties. We've been talking about this now for
Speaker 5: a few weeks it is a phenomenon that we see
Speaker 5: across the country, whether it's it's state elections in West Australia,
Speaker 5: whether it's in Queensland, whether it's in other states as well.
Speaker 5: You know where would be by election was a really
Speaker 5: good example of that. The Ages now lose a stack
Speaker 5: of votes to minor parties, but the other major party
Speaker 5: doesn't pick it all up. So that's fundamentally the challenge here,
Speaker 5: and we're looking at a very polarized electric you're either
Speaker 5: plant you're batting for the blue team or you're batting
Speaker 5: for the red team. If you're upset with one or
Speaker 5: the other, you don't go on swap. And that's what's
Speaker 5: going on here.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Also because because again there's a lot of this
Speaker 1: data that will appear in other places at other times,
Speaker 1: So I don't want to jump ahead of anything where
Speaker 1: it might be so yell out f I am. But
Speaker 1: something I'm noticing in those waves A right, what we
Speaker 1: were talking about before about how Labour's vote gets better
Speaker 1: over the past four weeks. The vote goes down over
Speaker 1: the past four weeks. The Greens vote in the most
Speaker 1: recent and the one before has exploded. I mean it
Speaker 1: has gone straight through the roof in some of these seats.
Speaker 1: Is that what determines that two party preferred conversation, because
Speaker 1: clearly if the Greens are up, the preferences are up.
Speaker 1: Is that the X factor in these twenty seats that
Speaker 1: according to this the Greens they're up a very significant amount.
Speaker 5: Yeah, gen Z, they're up to thirty three percent, and
Speaker 5: so people in their twenties in all these seats. This
Speaker 5: is where their growth is occurring for the Greens. And
Speaker 5: this is where the impact of these younger generations are
Speaker 5: having on the coalition. So if we look at all
Speaker 5: those generations, the Coalition does not win gen Z, Millennial
Speaker 5: or gen X. It only pulls off a win with
Speaker 5: baby boomers by a considerable margin by ad but they're
Speaker 5: no longer a dominant force in this country when it
Speaker 5: comes to politics and voting. So it's gen Z that's
Speaker 5: inflicting a lot of damage on the coalition then, but
Speaker 5: also millennials leaving the coalition and going to minor parties
Speaker 5: as well.
Speaker 1: Right, But then again, the stuff that might be a
Speaker 1: little counterfactual of feeling like the winds are blowing in
Speaker 1: both directions when people see a demographic this and that
Speaker 1: that says younger men are more conservative than ever before.
Speaker 1: But we see they're part of a generation that seems
Speaker 1: to be again leaping further to the left than a
Speaker 1: previous ones. So which is is there a myth out
Speaker 1: there that young blokes are conservative and therefore there's going
Speaker 1: to be some sort of eruction here or it is
Speaker 1: just a sub section of a sub section here.
Speaker 5: Yeah, subsection of a subsection. But the young blokes we're
Speaker 5: talking about actually anti establishment, right right, So that's why
Speaker 5: they like Trump, you know, so yeah, bugging them all,
Speaker 5: that's right, and they go for right wing populist leaders
Speaker 5: around the world. But they're a subsection, they're not the
Speaker 5: whole group. But that's absolutely the case. They still have
Speaker 5: young men that are far more reactionary and supportive of
Speaker 5: right wing populist leaders around the world than women in
Speaker 5: the same age categories.
Speaker 1: Can we bring up the graphic which shows the primary
Speaker 1: vote from newspaper here, because I'm just doing the quick
Speaker 1: mats in my hip here. If we're talking about preference
Speaker 1: discipline again, this is why it really matters. If you're
Speaker 1: somebody who's thinking about something other than a major party,
Speaker 1: I say, you have to pick who you think is
Speaker 1: going to be the government with your number two vote. Otherwise,
Speaker 1: if it goes for a long walk, well there's a
Speaker 1: chance that the current mob stays in the primary vote.
Speaker 1: Labour's thirty four, Greens twelve put it together at forty seven.
Speaker 1: Let's imagine there was one hundred percent preference discipline, there
Speaker 1: won't be with one nation supporters of the Liberal National
Speaker 1: that's forty one. So again, Michael, this is what's got
Speaker 1: to be the concern here, which is especially the decision
Speaker 1: of trumpet patriots to take the bug of them all.
Speaker 1: But there are more Liberals that are in tighter fights
Speaker 1: than Labor MPs. Now it's not suggesting that the Labor
Speaker 1: Party is going to go and take a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of Liberal seats, but it is a major decision, and
Speaker 1: I've got to say, I'm not sure why the trumpet Patriots,
Speaker 1: which is obviously coming from the right, is going to
Speaker 1: help facilitate the statistical removal of more people closer to
Speaker 1: what they believe, rather than in places like Bradfield where
Speaker 1: they're going to preference the Teal first, that's number two
Speaker 1: on the ballot.
Speaker 7: Mate, mate, Remember this, Not everything in life can be explained, So.
Speaker 1: Do you feel I mean, obviously twenty nineteen, seriously, but
Speaker 1: I get twenty nineteen serious tens of minutes of dollars
Speaker 1: on Bugger Shorten. Twenty twenty two was buger the system.
Speaker 1: Now he's doing buger the system again. You would agree
Speaker 1: with me that that's very bad news for the Lips, right.
Speaker 7: Well, yes, oh, you know, if he's preferencing two to
Speaker 7: a teal in Bradfield and preferencing against sitting Liberal members,
Speaker 7: of course that's going to harm us because we're the
Speaker 7: ones that need to win seats. And if you look
Speaker 7: at one nation, one nation, sorry, if you look at
Speaker 7: Palm Trump not Australian.
Speaker 1: Australian Party, the Palmer Party, the.
Speaker 7: Yellow whatever it's called. Yeah, it was the UAP in
Speaker 7: twenty twenty two. We got sixty two percent of their preferences.
Speaker 7: So in a seat where he is preferencing to labor
Speaker 7: or a teal, you can assume that those people are
Speaker 7: going to get a lot more than thirty eight percent
Speaker 7: of their preferences. So is it going to dan me
Speaker 7: jus Y said, will damage this to how much? You
Speaker 7: don't know? I mean, is a trumpet of Patriots voter
Speaker 7: likely to want a preference second a teal or labor who,
Speaker 7: as you've as you've poured out, vehemently opposed the Trump administration.
Speaker 7: They to test the Trump administration. So this will bewilder
Speaker 7: some of his own supporters, but quite frankly, it won't
Speaker 7: be the first time Parmer supporters have been bewildered.
Speaker 1: Mate well, judging by the comments on the Trumpet Patriots
Speaker 1: Facebook page in the past twenty four hours, including a
Speaker 1: couple of candidates that have been blowing up. So cos
Speaker 1: let's talk about that part factor because in most of
Speaker 1: the polls it would suggest that they're about half of
Speaker 1: where United Australia Party was same time three years ago.
Speaker 1: But Clyde Palmer, in his defense says, different brand, different issue,
Speaker 1: different people, It's still Team Yellow. Okay. Tell me about
Speaker 1: the Trumpet Patriots vote, particularly in those twenty marginals.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say there's a bit of a civil
Speaker 5: lining here for the coalition will. What we do know
Speaker 5: through analysis of voters behavior when they're handed aheat of okard,
Speaker 5: if you're voting for a minor party, you are least
Speaker 5: likely to follow that out of okard. Then you're voting
Speaker 5: for a major party. So what we know, for example,
Speaker 5: fifty or give or take, coalition and labor voters will
Speaker 5: follow the head of Oakard absolutely to the number. The
Speaker 5: other fifty percent don't, but when it comes to minor
Speaker 5: parties they will follow it based on their own beliefs.
Speaker 5: So I still think that where they are staffing those
Speaker 5: polling places, and that's the other critical factor here, is
Speaker 5: he going to staff the polling boops where they're staffing them,
Speaker 5: I think that will still preference very strongly to the
Speaker 5: coalition because the types of people that are voting for
Speaker 5: Partner's Operation are coming off the coalition. They're going to
Speaker 5: go back at about sixty to seventy percent. But again
Speaker 5: that's that thirty percent he's not getting that the colleges
Speaker 5: are not getting back and that's where it hurts them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but also what about in that Teal factor, like
Speaker 1: again Bradfield north of Sydney. Now, look, the Teal got
Speaker 1: done by twenty points in terms of primary vote last time. Right,
Speaker 1: it's just assumed that because that's the one who's getting
Speaker 1: more money, getting the media attention, sort of getting the
Speaker 1: full Teal treatment, And it's not a sitting Liberal MP.
Speaker 1: But again those sorts of factors in those seats, it's
Speaker 1: going to be fascinating because, as I say, in a
Speaker 1: sitting teal Monique Ryan last right in a potential Teal
Speaker 1: seat like A one, and much higher in Bradfield number two.
Speaker 1: So we'll all see where it lands. But then this
Speaker 1: brings us to the other preference question, which is the Greens. Now,
Speaker 1: as I noticed in this if the Greens have been
Speaker 1: surging in the past couple of weeks, which is that
Speaker 1: data inside of Redbridge, then their preferences matter why because
Speaker 1: they get the discipline when it comes to Labor, don't
Speaker 1: you love, Michael, how the media works. The Labor Party
Speaker 1: came out and has preferenced them, not fourth, not sixth,
Speaker 1: not seventh, not eventually before they've done it. Number two.
Speaker 1: They're basically the full hand pass. The full pass has
Speaker 1: been made to the Greens. The controversy nothing, yeap.
Speaker 7: So we've talked before on this show about Albanesi preferencing
Speaker 7: in the Greens and would he do it? Would he
Speaker 7: do it? And he's always member, he's always battered it away.
Speaker 7: Today you know the organization when there's sort of faceless
Speaker 7: people in Canberra who know nothing to do with him.
Speaker 7: I mean, I think, I think a lot of people
Speaker 7: in this country today who follow these things are absolutely
Speaker 7: gobsmacked by Mark Dreyfus, the Attorney General, who is Jewish,
Speaker 7: who has preferenced the Greens second. That will not help
Speaker 7: by the way, Josh Burns in the seat of Macnamara
Speaker 7: in Victoria, because any Jewish voter who was even thinking
Speaker 7: about voting for Verns would look at Mark Drafts and
Speaker 7: think what the Jewish Attorney generals is preferencing the Greens
Speaker 7: second in his own seat. So that won't help them.
Speaker 7: But if preferencing the Green's going to help the Labor
Speaker 7: Party nationally, know, I mean, people you talk about the
Speaker 7: vote surging, it seems to be around twelve percent, which
Speaker 7: is what it's been for in the last election as well.
Speaker 7: I mean, remember this, a lot of young people are
Speaker 7: so appalled by the Greens and they're sort of anti
Speaker 7: Semitism that that they've fueled through the behavior of some
Speaker 7: of their MPs like Jennifer Leong, etc. There's a lot
Speaker 7: of young people that don't want to be associated with
Speaker 7: a party that many people believe these days have racist undertones. So,
Speaker 7: you know, younger people with gen Z and millennials and
Speaker 7: others who think it's trending to support the Greens. A
Speaker 7: lot of those people that I've speaked were having second
Speaker 7: thoughts because they don't like this whole sort of pro
Speaker 7: Palestinian bent by the Greens, which the undercurrent of which
Speaker 7: many people believe is you know, has fueled a lot
Speaker 7: of social division in this country by Bant and others
Speaker 7: supporting the demonstrations being so critical of Israel Netanyahu. They
Speaker 7: seem to take every way, you know, every opportunity to
Speaker 7: criticize Israel. So I don't think the Greens of giving
Speaker 7: preferences getting preferences from labor is going to go well
Speaker 7: amongst a lot of moderate labor voters.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll find out from these blokes but that
Speaker 1: they think a debate in the middle of a holiday
Speaker 1: slash slightly blood week for many Australians will actually matter.
Speaker 1: And let's get into those other polling data as well
Speaker 1: about what is the reason why you wouldn't end are
Speaker 1: voting for the Libs or for Labor. Fascinating and big
Speaker 1: changes there or a quick break back with more state
Speaker 1: of the race. Hardcore politics this Easter Sunday, this show,
Speaker 1: this bloke next week, Western Australia. If you can get
Speaker 1: to Cawgooley. We're plugging it hard because we want to
Speaker 1: fill the joint with as many people as possible. We
Speaker 1: know it's not a town of amnion people, okay, so
Speaker 1: we know we're not going to get the mega crowds
Speaker 1: that we've had in all other places, but we want
Speaker 1: as many people there as possible. Okay. So if you
Speaker 1: can get to Cawgooley in Western Australia next week, ourtown,
Speaker 1: it's Goenies dot com. That are you. If you're watching,
Speaker 1: you know someone there, give them a call. Many times
Speaker 1: we go and do our town. Somebody says, I've been
Speaker 1: a fan. I watch you every night, but I didn't
Speaker 1: know you were coming. Well, come on, here's the chance.
Speaker 1: Ourtown at skydews dot com dot Au. Back to Coross
Speaker 1: Samaras from Redbridge and of course a legend around these
Speaker 1: parts are on sky Newson. Of course some Liberal Party
Speaker 1: in Victoria and none other than Michael Kroger. So Michael,
Speaker 1: another debate this one Tuesday. It does happen first day
Speaker 1: of voting, but it is still a place where a
Speaker 1: lot of people certainly are think news of wils I
Speaker 1: don't know about Victoria school holidays. It's still one of
Speaker 1: these gray weeks, one of the wobble weeks. And I've
Speaker 1: got a feeling that I, judging by the journalism of
Speaker 1: Channel nine sixty minutes all the way through to the
Speaker 1: way they do their questions each and every night, they're
Speaker 1: going to have one objective and one objective only, and
Speaker 1: that is to go for the kill on Peter Dutton.
Speaker 1: That said, what do you think of the third debate?
Speaker 7: Well, all these debates take on increasing importance. The closer
Speaker 7: you get to the election, the more important they are.
Speaker 7: As every day passes, people are paying more and more attention.
Speaker 7: You know, Tuesday they start voting, so and they'll be
Speaker 7: heavy pre pole voting because you used to have an excuse,
Speaker 7: you needed an excuse to vert early. Now that doesn't
Speaker 7: seem to worry about that so effectively, these polls are
Speaker 7: open for a week and a half, So yeah, the
Speaker 7: debate's very important. There's a couple of other debates during
Speaker 7: the week as well. Keith Wallahan's debating the men before Mensies,
Speaker 7: So yeah, there's a health debate on Wednesday with Anne
Speaker 7: Rust and so all these debates are very important. There's
Speaker 7: absolutely no doubt about it. Can I just go back
Speaker 7: to a point I was making before. I've just seen
Speaker 7: something on the Australian website. This guy Jason Clare right,
Speaker 7: the Minister for Education, who's the member for Blaxland in
Speaker 7: New South Wales. He's he's put the Greens second, it's
Speaker 7: crazy on his how to vote card, and the Greens
Speaker 7: candidate the word extreme probably doesn't define him properly. He's
Speaker 7: on the record of saying Zionism is Nazism. He thinks
Speaker 7: Jews that believe in the homeland of nazis really mister Claire,
Speaker 7: you've put this Blake second on your had to vote card.
Speaker 7: That's sick, Jason, that is sick. You shouldn't be doing that.
Speaker 7: And this is where ALBANIZI right, this is the danger
Speaker 7: of this Blake right, he's running a mark, he's desperate
Speaker 7: to win, and he's done a deal with these extremists
Speaker 7: to get him back into government. You know, as rich
Speaker 7: I said, whatever it takes, whatever it takes, that was
Speaker 7: his famous book title, and that's what Albanese is doing.
Speaker 7: In Anthony Alberze is Prime ministers country. Shame on you.
Speaker 1: Now, Cole. I want to talk about Rare, not Redbridge,
Speaker 1: a resolve political monitor. Sorry, I got to keep a
Speaker 1: million different things starting with R in my head here right,
Speaker 1: and a couple of swear words as well. Work them out,
Speaker 1: Work them out. Now. This is really fascinating because again
Speaker 1: it shows the march of where things are now. I'm
Speaker 1: not totally sure whether this again is about undecided voters,
Speaker 1: whether this is about marginal seat voters, or whether this
Speaker 1: is just across everyone. So you've got the lovers and
Speaker 1: the haters in there. Okay. So the number one reason
Speaker 1: why someone would be hesitant about voting for Labor or
Speaker 1: Anthony Abernezi not enough action on cost of living, followed
Speaker 1: by the management of the economy For the Libs number
Speaker 1: one issue Peter Dutton's personality as leader and a lack
Speaker 1: of policy detail. What do those polls tell you about
Speaker 1: what you hear from voters when you ask them, so,
Speaker 1: what do you think you know?
Speaker 5: I think what we're seeing is they are just trying
Speaker 5: to find excuses as to why they're going to vote
Speaker 5: for labor, and it's really got to do with a
Speaker 5: global situation, right we shouldn't really discount just the impact
Speaker 5: that the tariff wars are having on the mindset of
Speaker 5: these voters. I mean, if you're these voters that we've
Speaker 5: been talking about now for some time, you know, at
Speaker 5: our suburban regional voters who have been financially struggling. I've
Speaker 5: endured a pandemic, You've enjoyed twelve interest rate rises, You're
Speaker 5: barely keeping your head above water, and suddenly the global
Speaker 5: economy is going in all sorts of places you never imagined.
Speaker 5: You're least likely to vote and incumber down.
Speaker 1: And this is what's going on here.
Speaker 5: Same impact that nine to eleven had in two thousand
Speaker 5: and one, with the same impact that the other global
Speaker 5: events that were quite seismic have had. Even the pandemic,
Speaker 5: the onset of the pandemic had a great effect on
Speaker 5: inflating incumbents numbers, And I think we shouldn't really discount
Speaker 5: what's going on here. So when we ask people these questions,
Speaker 5: they're just going to hang their hat on whatever they
Speaker 5: can be hang their had on. What we know for
Speaker 5: our research over the last couple of weeks, though, is
Speaker 5: that they are bringing this up the global situation on
Speaker 5: a regular.
Speaker 1: Basis, Yeah, which is why obviously as well, you start
Speaker 1: to hear, you know, both sides talking about it a lot. So, Michael,
Speaker 1: how do you keep doubt in the air? How do
Speaker 1: you keep the question up so that they don't fall
Speaker 1: on one side of the fence.
Speaker 7: So, Mate, a lot of elections in recent years the
Speaker 7: polls have been wrong, and there have been some elections
Speaker 7: where the vote has changed even up to polling day.
Speaker 7: The Victorian state election in twenty ten, everyone thought label
Speaker 7: were going to win, and then in the last four
Speaker 7: or five days the vote swung for the Liberal Party
Speaker 7: and Ted Bailey was elected Premier in Victoria. We all
Speaker 7: remember Election night twenty nineteen. We all turned up to
Speaker 7: whatever studio we were on, ready to ordain prime to
Speaker 7: Bill Shorten, well lo and behold, well we all shocked.
Speaker 7: And I'll tell you there's one thing I know about
Speaker 7: Saturday Week. There's one thing that on Saturday Night you'll
Speaker 7: be able to quote me when you say to people,
Speaker 7: I didn't expect that, because that's what's going to happen
Speaker 7: in a lot of these seats on Saturday Week. You're
Speaker 7: going to look at them and think, my god, I
Speaker 7: never saw that coming.
Speaker 1: I agree. And here's the thing. Nothing is inevitable, right
Speaker 1: for the labor people who think, oh we're on our
Speaker 1: way to works eighty hair goods. This nothing's locked in
Speaker 1: all right. Yes, lots of evidence, lots of trend all
Speaker 1: the rest of it. No one's going to look the
Speaker 1: other way. But nothing is inevitable. And that preference discipline again.
Speaker 1: It's a fascinating chat, lads. I love this chat. I
Speaker 1: love it because we're doing outown next week. We'll do
Speaker 1: it Monday on next week. Thank you so much. Of
Speaker 1: a great time and happy is it to you both?
Speaker 1: All right, that's our show for tonight. Stand by for
Speaker 1: the Royal Report.