WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 20 April 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.400 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Burray live. Indeedly Caleb. 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:10.520 When it comes to humans, I am a wagu plus nine, 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.280 whatever the rating is, whatever the maximum one is for 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:17.040 a little muscle movement. Very well marveled. That'd be me, 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:18.680 all right, Welcome to the show. Lots to get to 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.119 tonight here in the man Cave. Now tonight, before we 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:23.200 get into the politics, we're going to talk about something terrible. 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:25.680 It's been happening, particularly in New South Wales, an awful 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:28.920 lot of people that have been drowning. It's been a 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:31.520 little bit warm. People need to settle down and be 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.520 careful around water, especially people who for some reason still 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:36.040 do the rock fishing. I'm going to explain that in 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:39.760 a second Sunday Night, definitely on a public holiday. Hardcore 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:41.720 politics to night of course, the state of the Race, 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:45.280 Cos Samaras with the numbers, Michael Kroger with the opinion 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:47.479 on it all. And this time next week I'm going 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.080 to be living a dream because I am going to 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:53.200 be in beautiful Cowghoolie in Western Australia. If you would 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:55.800 like to join us in the room. And I know 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.040 that there's the nullable muster up the road. But that's okay, 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.360 do this said, and I turned around, come back, say 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:04.240 ourtown at skynews dot com dot AU. Next Sunday night 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:07.759 will be in Cowgooley in mighty Western Australia. Let's fill 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:11.880 the room ourtown at skynews dot com dot A. You now, 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:14.000 as I say, before I get to the politics, and 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:16.240 obviously that's the main focus, particularly on a Sunday night. 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:19.919 There have been half a dozen people who have died 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:23.560 in the waters off New South Wales this easter. Now 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:26.120 they claim it's because the weather is ever so slightly warmer, 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:28.240 so people are going back and they're going to places 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.360 that are frankly unpatrolled. There's not as many life savers. 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:33.040 Some of them are even shut down because of course 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:37.280 it's no longer the official swimming season. But also there 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:39.440 are too many people and I mean too many people 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:42.600 who are going rock fishing. Now, if that's how you 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.240 get your kicks, if you don't have the safety vest, 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:49.440 if you don't have the equipment, because inevitably, what Mother 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:51.840 Nature will do is produce a wave out of nowhere 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:53.960 that could knock you off your feet. Apart from the 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:55.880 fact that you could end up banging your head and 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:59.280 then like some people washing into the water, you could 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:02.200 just get washed into the water with very little ability 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.680 to fight back. This is a matter of life and 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:07.160 death in Australia. We love our water, but we are 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:10.040 at times not prepared for it. Here's the Life Savers 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.600 today on TV after a pretty bad weekend, which of 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.799 course still has another day to go day away from 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.040 the rocks at the edges. Rivers can also be dangerous. 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:20.680 You know, we want people to stay safe, we want 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:21.920 people to be able to go home at the end 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:22.720 of the Easter break. 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.680 Now, reality is the Easter break flows pretty quickly into 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.760 Anzac Day. A lot of people will obviously have the 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:33.440 public holidays of Friday, Sunday, Monday. Then they're going to 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.440 take Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday off in order sugar another long 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:38.639 weekend when it comes to Anzac Day, so lots of 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.840 people are going to be close to the water. And 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.119 just the past couple of days there have been house 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.960 this fifty rescues up and down the coast of New 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.520 South Wales. It could be a similar story somewhere else, 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.120 but it's just a warning to everyone. As relaxed as 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:54.840 we are, we can't be relaxed about the reality that 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.480 humans and water sometimes it doesn't mix. 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:02.280 Today alone, there have been fifty rescues, with another one 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:06.800 hundred lives saved since Good Friday, thirty of them involving 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:11.480 the Westpac Rescue helicopter. Close calls today including a rock 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.800 fisherman at Bass Point on the South coast and another 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.720 at a voca further north at Coffs Harbor. Three swimmers 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:21.239 were pulled from the water by life savers. 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:24.080 Please take it easy and thank you to those in 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:26.840 the volunteer and professional services who are there to help. 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.760 We honestly are a better place because of your service 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:32.680 and something that all of us should never take for granted. 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:35.760 All Right, election, thirteen days until we know whether the 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.640 government gets rehired or there is a new broom coming 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:42.000 through Canberra. Just two days until the first votes are cast. 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:44.960 And in an election when apparently there are a huge 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.320 number of undecideds, does that mean they will all rush 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:49.360 vote early to get it done. Do they wait till 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:52.240 the end? Do the hyperpartisans make the most of these 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:55.120 few extra days regardless of whether it's a public holiday 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.840 or not. The services are going to be open Tuesday, 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:01.640 Wednesday and Thursday, so we'll all be keeping a very 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:03.800 close eye on what's happening. But voting starts in the 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:08.240 twenty twenty five election in just two days' time. This 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:10.640 week we'll also have another debate that one is of 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:12.320 course going to be over on Channel nine on the 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:16.640 same day that voting does begin. Now, today, the Prime 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.680 Minister lived up to his each way albo tag that 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:22.479 we have given him, which is he says that Peter 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.800 Dutton is injecting too much machismo, he's too matcho, he's 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:31.240 too blokey. He said this today while going onto the 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.720 footy show in Rugby League Territory and passing the football. 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:38.159 Imagine if Tony Abbott had done this toxic mathculinity. But 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:40.200 because it's albo, oh, it's just him being a good 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.280 bloke right. Hence why we say each way albo. It 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:47.840 applies in a campaign as much as it does in governance. Now, 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:50.480 of course, play are spending when it comes to this government, 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.520 but thankfully they've held off for the past couple of days. 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.600 But Mark Knight, the excellent cartoonist for The Herald's Sun, well, 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.080 he decided to link the excessive spending and excessive promises 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:03.839 of Anthony Aberne. Is he with the holiday? It's Easter 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:05.920 time and I hope the Easter Bunny is paid you 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:08.719 all visit this weekend. Of course, there is another bunny 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:10.640 traveling around the country at the moment. 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.680 Delivering handouts to absolutely everybody, and. 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:14.880 That would be the Prime Minister. 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:18.640 Do I've called the Easter ol Bunny easy like that? 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.839 Well, you might see him hopping through your neighborhood as 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:25.280 he goes from an electric to electric during his campaign. 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.960 Giving handouts to anybody who's close by. 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:30.679 This is the full cartoon that is in the Herald 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.839 Sun today. I like Mark Knight, always feel us always 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.039 on point and a very good point that the Prime 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:39.039 Minister considers himself to be the Easter Bunny right now. 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:41.840 And of course he's spent plenty of money since January. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.760 A seven point two billion dollar announcement today five million 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:50.880 dollars ten million dollar, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollar, 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:54.200 three hundred and fifty million dollar, two billion dollars, thirty 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.359 seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar, 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:01.320 two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar, 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.840 four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars three point 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:08.320 four billion dollars two point eight billion dollars two one 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.240 hundred million dollar, one hundred and fifty million dollar, one 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.520 billion dollar, two hundred and forty five million dollars, six 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.880 million dollars, three million dollars, ten billion dollars. 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:20.359 Never gets old, but you'll find a new way to 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:21.960 add to it, no doubt in a couple of days 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.600 when there's sort of attention on the election, but certainly 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:26.840 the votes start being cast, there will be no doubt 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.320 more promises over the next thirteen days two until the 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.159 voting begins. As for Peter Dunnan, he's been at many 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:36.520 religious services, including one in Sydney's West on Friday, apparently 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:41.000 attended by twenty thousand people. What a huge number of 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.000 people that were there and a perfect sign again of 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:46.080 his focus when it comes to wider community is the 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:48.559 Christian Maronite community, I believe is the one behind that one. 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:50.600 He went to the Easter show, as did the Prime Minister, 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:52.800 which means, oh, the politicians can work out who was 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:54.800 cheering and who was booing and what's the metaphor if 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:56.560 they're standing in front of this one or that one, 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:58.400 will they walk past a write you know? How it 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.279 works anyway, as for an a fficial Easter message, and 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:04.120 again happy Easter to everyone who marks the occasion for 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:07.159 its religious significance. This is what the alternative Prime Minister 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:10.200 had to say in his Easter message today. 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:13.960 Remember what is important in life and what is important 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:19.000 his family, our friends, and our society, our community, and 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:21.200 doing whatever we can to make sure that the future 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.120 of this great country will always be exactly that. 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:26.840 Now we know the media have spun as hard as 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.520 they can, certainly for months, but definitely for the weeks 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.960 of this election in favor of the Prime Minister. Now, 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:33.720 if the polls are right, the Prime Minister's headed to 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:37.200 another term in Parliament as the Prime Minister, be it 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:40.800 minority or maybe even slim majority. Potentially that would be 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:43.200 extraordinary if he was able to achieve that. So you 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:45.320 think that a few hard questions might be coming the 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:47.360 way of the Prime Minister, but of course not. The 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:49.480 media is there to get him re elected, not to 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:53.160 hold him to account. We passed the halfway point in 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:57.480 the campaign. The polls are increasingly positive for Labor. That's 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:01.440 positive for the coalition. You must confident now if you're going. 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:03.600 For the fining two weeks better report today than your 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:06.600 campaign chair as welcome the baby girl, pretty the world. 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:09.400 How much eternity leaders are you going to get? And 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:15.120 any message for new parents? Yeah, I mean be still 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:17.760 my beating heart. We're even giving a little shout out 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:21.280 to the campaign chairs now. Of course, for Peter Dunton, 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:24.000 the government is more than happy to you fill the 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.640 media with as much info as possible to say he 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:28.360 can't get out of first gear because if he gets 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:29.720 out of first gear, he might be able to pull 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:32.320 off the miracle win and we can't have twenty nineteen 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.880 all over again. So here are the questions of the 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:38.000 alternative prime minister. It's but the difference. 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.400 Do you regret hitching your wagon to nuclear and do 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.560 you think you've done enough to sell it this campaign? 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:44.880 So far? 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.600 On your small business lunch policy, you've only mentioned it 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:49.800 once in three weeks, so you still committed to it? 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:51.960 And why aren't you talking about you visited more. 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:54.320 Than ten petrol stations on this campaign. 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:57.920 Why haven't you visited a single proposed nuclear power sign. 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.240 Why should members of the Australia's multiple your community vote 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:03.319 for you giving you a hard stance of immigration? Well, 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:05.360 why is it so hard for you to just say 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:07.920 climate change and acknowledge that it exists. 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.160 Don't you love this? How many times have we said 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.400 over the fifteen years we've been together here about immigration, 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:18.880 that it's not about what people believe in, it's not 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:21.520 what they look like, it's not from where they come from, 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.960 as long as obviously anywhere that anyone comes from, they agree. 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.360 In the egalitarian Australia, they agree the law of the 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:30.120 land is more important than a near religious law. We 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.000 fully accept people to love who they want to love, 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.719 marry who they want to marry, all the normal stuff, right. 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:39.360 We respect in fact revere women in this country, and 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:41.360 the men who are decent would die for the women 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:43.560 in their lives, not cause them trouble, and anyone who 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:47.040 does is a low life. But of course any conversation 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:49.679 about immigration, they try to turn it into some sort 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.120 of a conversation about race. No, no, no, it's about 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:55.600 the reality that if so many people can't afford a house, 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:58.240 if so many people can't find a place to live, 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.240 why would you tip another million people on on top 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.880 of that, extending every queue and every state ambulance Ramping 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:05.679 is a problem, meaning when you call triple o they 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:08.160 may or may not turn up, and even if you 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:09.760 do get in the back of an ambulance, you're not 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.240 going to get into the hospital. Ycus is not enough beds. No, no, 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:14.760 let's tip another midion in do you like how they 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.880 deliberately and intention They know that, but they deliberately and 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:22.000 intentionally try to link the word immigration to race, because 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.000 of course that is the way that the modern left 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:26.680 likes to talk about things, like in the United States, 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:30.000 they don't talk about the difference between legal and illegal immigration. 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.840 Ten million people crossed into the country over its borders 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.720 through the southern border, more likely than coming down from Canada. 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:39.960 The American government wants to get rid of the people 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:41.880 who came in illegally. But no, no, no, they're racist 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:45.520 because they're all migrants. Know there is an absolute difference, 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:48.120 And anyone who knows people that have come to the 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:51.280 country know the people who waited, filled out the forms, 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.960 did the homework and pass the tests think very poorly 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.480 of those who come in illegally. So it is a 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:59.720 complicated issue, but it is not that difficult to understand 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:04.080 why Australians want a pause in more people being added 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.480 to every version of the queue that exists in Australia. 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:11.880 But my phone went kaboom on Thursday night when the 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:15.319 host from the ABC well yet again showed their political colors. 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:18.800 Now Here is a scenario where Clara, now the Housing Minister, 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.560 was well doing what she normally does, which is carrying 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.920 on like a two bob watch, trying to show that 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.280 she's the future of the Labor Party. Look at her, 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:29.480 she's a girl boss. Here she is whacking the Libs 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:35.800 around the face. Although significantly higher. That's sorry, they were 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:37.520 thirty thousand. 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:39.679 Short of what the coult That's not right, Michael. 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:41.160 Labour not going to be at one point two. That's 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:44.440 the point, Labor. Under Claire's watch, we're. 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:47.760 Delivering fewer homes than we've had for well over a decab. 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.000 Well, that's absolutely untrue again Michael. 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.600 And they get to deliver a single hope, that's true. 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.079 Let's sell well, we all fund so sure for that's it. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.880 You're not getting an ounce so you'll announcer. 0:11:58.400 --> 0:11:58.679 Out of me. 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:02.199 Through the Affordable Housing Bond aggregator, we've supported thirteen thousand 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:03.040 homes old run. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:04.120 So did you build thirteen? 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:05.720 Did you build. 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.560 Thirteens higher than? And then today all the rooms are 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:14.160 that tried to do so. But when the liberal spokesperson 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.640 tries to fight back and dare interrupt clueless Clear O'Neil, 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.640 the absolutely independent host who, as you see, never pulled 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:24.360 up Claire O'Neil. Look what she did to the lips. 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.960 We are building fifty five thousand social and affordable homes 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:32.920 over five years, twenty eight thousand, twenty eight thousand of 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:34.680 those home Resmarchaels, what would. 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.280 Your mother say hearing you interrupt her? Just I've been 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:38.400 interrupted the entire time. 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.120 Just please, it's okay. I'm unflappable, Sarah. I've done this 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:43.719 my third run at this this. 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:48.040 Week, darlily An. They always spit the poor. We show 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.800 you the receipts. They will all keep marching on and 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.040 doing what they do. Now, I think the biggest thing 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.760 that happened in politics this weekend happened on the Sunshine Coast, 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.960 and it happened with Clyde Palmer Clyde Park via the 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:05.120 Trumpeter patriots made their announcement when it comes to preferences. Now, 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.040 this is what he said, and he is going to 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:11.520 put essentially all sitting MP's last. I'll explain why that is. 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.040 A massive boost for the Labor Party and a big 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:18.360 problem for the coalition. In a second, it's dumb and dumber. 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:25.600 It's tweedled, dumb and tweedled. It's B one and B two. 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:31.120 That's why the Trumpet of Patriots has placed every sitting 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:40.920 Labor member last in every Labor held seat, and every 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:44.440 sitting Liberal member last and every Liberal health seat. 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.280 Now, of course, Trumpeter Patriots is the new version of 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.200 the United Australian Party. The United Australian Party, which had 0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.360 been deregistered in between the last two elections, did have 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:57.520 tens of thousands of members, So why it was the 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:01.320 registered Who knows who cares? But the reality is Trumpet 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.079 of Patriots is the one that's doing all the ads. 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:04.680 It's the one with the yellow colors. It is the 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.959 one that is the Clyde Palmer Party in twenty twenty five. 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:13.200 Now again, the simple maths here is that yes, there 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.160 are more Labor seats than there are Liberal seats. But 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:20.119 what about the margins by which each party is attacking 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:24.840 or defending. That's when this preference deal starts to absolutely 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:28.480 work in favor of the Labor Party. Let me explain. 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:31.400 These are the seats of the Labor Party is currently 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:35.720 holding under two percent, being along Gilmore Means his Lions 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:39.080 and Lingiari the United Australia Party, which of course now 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:43.600 is the Trumpet Patriots. It got more than two percent 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.800 in each and every one of those seats, meaning that 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.600 if those were immediately sent back towards the Libs, it 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.600 could be the difference between Labour holding onto a seat 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.960 or losing a seat. In the seats of four percent, 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.960 there essentially is no major change, but in Robertson, Patterson, 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:05.000 Boothby and Chisholm up to almost four percent, particularly in 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:09.280 Patterson would matter. But essentially it is really those first 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.960 few seats that end up being the main areas that 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.600 the Labour Party would become nervous about. Well, guess what, 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:18.480 there's actually a larger number of seats that are held 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.440 by the Liberal and National Party under the two percent margin. 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:28.960 So by going against the sitting MP in Deacon Sturt, More, Canning, 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:34.080 not necessarily Bass Casey and Dixon, which of course is 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:38.880 Peter Dutton's seat, all of those suddenly could become vulnerable. Now, 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:40.760 if people do follow the how to vote card, then 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:43.200 you are talking about a significant number that is going 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:47.360 to be moving against the sitting MP, which numerically is 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:51.040 going to be more relevant in the wafer thin margins 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:52.720 held by the Liberal Party than the waf of thin 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.440 margins held by the Labor Party. In fact, if you 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:59.480 have a look at the four percent margins Banks, Longman, 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:04.800 BONNERI like Ar't Hughes and Flynn, but particularly in Flynn 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:08.600 and Banks and Longman and Hughes. Now that was where 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.600 Craig Kelly was running as the United Australian Party leader 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.479 the last election. All of those again could have significant 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.640 impacts on the Liberal Party's ability to defend a seat. 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:24.520 So put simply, by putting everyone last, it's going to 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.040 advantage the Labor Party because they have fewer seats in 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:32.960 the margins where the Trumpeter Patriots vote could be decisive. 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:37.520 If people follow those how to vote cards, the Trumpeter Patriots' 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:41.680 preferences could hurt up to seven Labor MPs, but could 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:47.960 hurt up to seventeen Liberal and National Party MPs. Now 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:52.560 by putting everyone last, it means that he is preferencing 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:57.040 the Teals before Labor and before Liberal in many different seats. 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:00.760 Of course, the Teals are running against Liberals would help 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:05.120 for Teal candidates who'd like to defeat a Liberal candidate, 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:09.600 but in fairness, it could hurt the sitting six Teal candidates. 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.159 What I find odd about this is not it's a 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:16.760 bug of the whole system. It's that very obviously they 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:21.280 know their numbers, very obviously, they know their margins, so 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:23.919 very obviously they know which of the two political sides 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:25.840 it was going to hurt. Now, this is the same 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:31.639 essential messaging that in the twenty nineteen campaign went full 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:35.320 bore against Bill Shorten Phil Bore. So it's coming from 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.800 the right. So for it to hurt the Liberal and 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:41.560 National Party either in the two headed contest when it 0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:44.120 comes to Liberal labor, or to hurt when it comes 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.680 to the Teals trying to take over from a lib. 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:52.480 It is essentially going to be a very significant issue 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:56.160 here because preference discipline with people who vote one Nation 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.840 or vote Trumpeter Patriots or vote Libertarian, is going to 0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:01.119 be the difference between a close election or one hell 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:05.080 of a blowout. Remember this is what the leader of 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:09.159 the Trumpeter Patriots said on Saturday after the preference decision 0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:12.480 had been made. So very obviously you would suggest that 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:16.440 she is coming from the right of Australian politics. 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:20.680 And Australia needs many of the policies of the Trump 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:25.080 administration which will be effective in bringing Australia back on track. 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:28.000 But when you go to the website of the Trumpeter 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.200 of Patriots and you have a look at the how 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.920 to votes in the different seats, the wanna be Teals 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:38.640 are preferenced second more than anyone else in the goes 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:42.119 Trumpeter Patriots straight to Teals in cap on the mid 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:44.840 North Coast of New South Wales, and amazingly in the 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:48.520 seat of Bradfield, where the number one option apart from 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.960 Trumpeter Patriots for Trumpeter Patriots voters, as instructed by the 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:55.520 Trumpeter Patriots, is to vote for the Teal And this 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:58.439 is the Teal candidate who is going to get the 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:02.119 preferences from Trumpeter Patrients in Bradfield. 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:05.679 How do I let my friends know that Community Independence 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:09.320 aren't a party? 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:12.679 Well, we know how to party. I think that's probably 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:18.960 worth nice. I think that, yeah, it's a really good question. 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.080 There's a lot of is the desiituation out there about that, 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:30.400 and I think that I think it's really hard right 0:19:30.440 --> 0:19:32.920 because I just don't think that people understand what we're 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:33.800 doing here. 0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:37.600 Now. I don't want to start another blood feud with 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:42.320 Clive Palmer. Much louder voice and more money that many 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:44.639 of us could ever dream of, and we're buried the 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:46.560 hatchet a long time ago, So Clive, I'm not trying 0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.040 to start a new fight here, Okay. All I'm trying 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:51.600 to understand is, well, yes, you talk about the UNI Party, 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:53.280 and there's no difference between the Liberal Party and the 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.080 Labor Party. The difference of this decision is that it 0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.360 will result in potentially much fewer Liberal MPs, which could 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:04.000 result in much more labor MPs. It could result in 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:09.360 teals replacing liberals and would that not take the country 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.639 further away from the stated goals of the Trumpeter patriots? 0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:15.720 Or am I missing something? You got my number? You 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:16.879 can text me if you want, or we'll come on 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:18.879 the show and talk about it. I'm not shilling for 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.680 the Liberal Party here. It's just this is a terrible government. 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:24.119 This is a terrible government that deserves to be pushed 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:27.119 right to the edge, if not over it. These preferences 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.800 could well save them. I don't get it. As for 0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:34.040 the election, is it closer than we think? Well, who 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.040 do you trust if you trust the book is The 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:38.679 answer is no, hell no. In fact, because the latest 0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:42.640 odds sports bet Liberals at four dollars thirty the Labor 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:46.000 Party of twenty two lad Broke's better dollar twenty tab 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:50.480 at a dollar twenty blowouts basically and by the way 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:53.080 I think in sports bet it's basically the same money 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.040 between a majority or a minority right now for Labor. 0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:58.840 So things in terms of the bookies absolutely going Labour's 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:01.639 way tonight theatest news pole has dropped. It is exactly 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:06.280 the same even including the primary votes than last week, 0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:09.960 which either means the coalition has steadied the bleeding. But 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:12.120 if nothing else, obviously it's in a world of paine 0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:13.920 at fifty two forty eight. And I want to ask 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:16.040 our stats guys tonight, Okay, if it's fifty two to 0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:18.280 forty eight, why are we looking at other poles telling 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.200 us that the Labour Party could still lose half a 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:24.240 dozen seats. Surely if they're nationally above, they should be 0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:26.760 above everywhere else. Of course, the answer is swings and 0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:28.639 all the rest of it. But how look at that 0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:31.680 primary vote? Remember the last election one nation got five 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:33.800 percent of the vote. It's now up to seven percent. 0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:36.080 It's consistent in all the polls that they are higher 0:21:36.080 --> 0:21:39.400 than they were last time. That's why Pauline Hanson, being 0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:44.760 very aggressive, very anti Albanezy, is telling everyone preference the 0:21:44.840 --> 0:21:48.480 Libs before you get to Labor. I'm saying you put 0:21:48.840 --> 0:21:50.920 the Liberal Party up there at number two. Why because 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:53.120 that's the only way to defeat the Labor Party. Once 0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:55.800 you send your vote out across fifteen different candidates, there's 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:59.359 a chance statistically that you don't end up changing the seat. 0:21:59.400 --> 0:22:01.160 You just end up sending your vote on a very 0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:04.439 long walk. However, this is the stuff that's going to 0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:06.600 really start to hurt Liberal supporters. But stick with me. 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:08.480 I'll give you some hope. In a second all right, 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:11.840 cost of living, Labour's winning that one thirty one twenty eight, 0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:17.560 everyone else neither undecided, both equally tax. Labor is leading 0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:20.000 the coalition thirty three to twenty five on the question 0:22:20.040 --> 0:22:25.200 of would be better at handling lowering taxes helping Australiers 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:27.800 by their first House twenty nine to twenty four, relatively even, 0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:31.119 but still Labor in front. In health, it won't surprise 0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:34.320 you that it's forty two twenty two as for the 0:22:34.359 --> 0:22:37.360 overall economy. Now again I don't understand how one people say. 0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:40.040 They say one thing about tax, they say another thing 0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:41.600 about cost of living. But when it comes to the 0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:45.840 overall economy, Coalition leading Labor thirty four to twenty nine, 0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:48.720 and on defense thirty five to twenty three in favor 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:53.320 of the coalition. Meantime, according to the Yuga pole that 0:22:53.400 --> 0:22:55.359 dropped this weekend, and again we're all about the data, 0:22:55.400 --> 0:22:57.120 We're all about the grains of sand on the beach. 0:22:57.200 --> 0:22:59.480 This is how nothing will be a surprise when voting 0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:01.960 starts on Tuesday. Labor is apparently in an eighteen month 0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:05.000 high in their primary vote. Why because they say it 0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:08.159 is equal. Now the Coalition, which got close to forty 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:09.960 in this poll is now down to thirty three. The 0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:11.920 Labour Party is basically where they were at the last 0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:15.160 election at thirty three. Paul In Hansen still at seven. Remember, 0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:17.560 if you're going to devote one nation or anything else 0:23:17.600 --> 0:23:20.600 on the right of center, then clearly you should prioritize 0:23:20.600 --> 0:23:23.280 the government that you want after the candidate that you want. 0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:28.639 Otherwise Labour sticks around two party preferred fifty three forty 0:23:28.720 --> 0:23:32.120 seven according to you gov. Also Redbridge now you can 0:23:32.119 --> 0:23:34.840 see what you're going to see here is four different lines. 0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:38.120 The most recent is the most recent poll, the one 0:23:38.119 --> 0:23:40.119 below that is the week before that, the week before that, 0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:43.520 and then where we started things about four and a 0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:46.480 bit weeks ago. You can see for Labor it's got 0:23:46.520 --> 0:23:48.439 better as the four weeks have gone. For Coalition it 0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.720 has got worse over the past four weeks. But and 0:23:51.760 --> 0:23:53.560 I said there was a raise of hope. Let's talk 0:23:53.560 --> 0:23:55.959 about cost of living. Because cost of living, which has 0:23:56.000 --> 0:23:58.000 been the number one election issue and has been for 0:23:58.040 --> 0:23:59.879 the past how many years we're banned on about it? 0:23:59.880 --> 0:24:02.080 How many night? It's why because it's where Australians are. 0:24:02.680 --> 0:24:05.240 The ABC is starting to notice this because you know 0:24:05.320 --> 0:24:07.640 that vote compass thing which basically put in the information 0:24:07.720 --> 0:24:09.719 that tells you you're going to vote green. Well, it 0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:12.399 is showing that the most important issue is cost of living, 0:24:13.200 --> 0:24:18.639 followed by economy and finance, government operations, then climate change, housing, healthcare, immigration, 0:24:19.760 --> 0:24:23.440 gender equality which is a less than one percent issue, 0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:27.480 or even retirement benefits and social services according to their compass. 0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:31.119 Why does this matter because cost of living, yes, slightly 0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:33.560 leaning in favor of the government. In the news polet 0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:36.359 in the Freshwater pole. It is slightly leaning in favor 0:24:36.400 --> 0:24:39.680 of the coalition. This means the coalition's messaging should be 0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:41.520 one thing and one thing only every day between now 0:24:41.560 --> 0:24:43.720 and the election. Which is the shopping list of things 0:24:43.720 --> 0:24:45.800 that will happen if you vote for the Liberal Party. 0:24:46.000 --> 0:24:48.880 Number one twelve hundred dollars, automatic tax return, Number two 0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:52.040 twenty five cents, harving of the petrol tax. Number three, 0:24:52.280 --> 0:24:55.280 instant asset right off for businesses up to thirty thousand dollars. 0:24:55.320 --> 0:24:57.800 Number four put them in whatever order they want. Tax 0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:00.000 deductibility for people that are paying off their first home. 0:25:00.200 --> 0:25:02.639 There are people there who are still soft and still 0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:06.520 able to move. But the pole that did worry me 0:25:06.560 --> 0:25:08.240 the most today in terms of if we're going to 0:25:08.280 --> 0:25:10.120 keep the government or get rid of them, was this 0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:14.439 detailed run through. In the red Bridge polling, the question 0:25:14.760 --> 0:25:17.320 was what would you say the biggest hesitations or concerns 0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:20.320 for only for labor or Anthony Abernesi. The dark red 0:25:20.359 --> 0:25:22.680 is the most recent pole, the pink is the one 0:25:22.720 --> 0:25:24.800 before that. So let's go off the most recent numbers 0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:27.240 forty seven percent. And remember these are all out of 0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:29.200 one hundred. They don't all add up to one hundred. 0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:31.679 Lack of action on cost of living seat, that's the 0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:35.120 opportunity for the Libs. The shopping list of what is available, 0:25:35.800 --> 0:25:37.720 ram at home with every ad you've got for the 0:25:37.720 --> 0:25:41.359 next little while. Now that's forty seven percent. Management of 0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:44.960 the economy, lack of progress in their first term. There 0:25:44.960 --> 0:25:46.879 links to the union movement and just twenty four percent 0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:49.920 of people saying it's Anthony Albanese's personality as leader. Now 0:25:49.920 --> 0:25:53.560 these are apparently people in swing seats, so again it's 0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:55.320 not about the hard cores that are in hardcore Red 0:25:55.400 --> 0:25:58.600 or hardcore Blue. This is in the question Mark territory. 0:25:58.880 --> 0:26:02.280 The problem for the LID in this polling up by 0:26:02.359 --> 0:26:05.560 ten points. Peter Dutton's personality as leader is the biggest 0:26:05.560 --> 0:26:08.160 hesitation for people as to why they wouldn't vote coalition 0:26:08.760 --> 0:26:11.600 or for Peter Dutton as the leader of the coalition 0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:15.040 forty five percent. Our lack of policy detail. Did they 0:26:15.119 --> 0:26:16.520 leave it too late to tell us what they were 0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:20.080 planning to do? The coalition's too close to Trump basically 0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:22.359 because we would follow the examples being set by Trump 0:26:22.400 --> 0:26:25.120 thirty four percent. The performance of the Morrison government thirty 0:26:25.119 --> 0:26:27.600 two percent. Their plan for nuclear power in fact, more 0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:29.520 people saying the reason not devote liberal is because of 0:26:29.520 --> 0:26:32.440 the last government, not the plans of a future government. 0:26:33.320 --> 0:26:35.359 We'll talk about that with Michael Kroger in a moment 0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:39.040 or to time. Lots to unveil, lots to pull apart 0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:40.720 with them, and the way that we like to do 0:26:40.760 --> 0:26:42.960 it each and every Sunday night is to get right 0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:45.160 into the detail, and we like to call it none 0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:47.080 other than the State of the Race. We'll take a 0:26:47.119 --> 0:26:49.120 quick break, we'll be back with them as we get 0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:51.359 into the data, into the detail, and I really do 0:26:51.400 --> 0:26:53.800 want to have a conversation about those polls that are 0:26:53.800 --> 0:26:55.960 turning around and telling us about what's going to hold 0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:58.439 people back Tomorrow and night on the show, we're going 0:26:58.480 --> 0:27:00.520 to go deep into the muck that is social media. 0:27:00.640 --> 0:27:03.879 But enough for me. Let's get to the detail. Thoughts 0:27:03.920 --> 0:27:05.639 ports going ONews dot com dot Are you stay of 0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:07.920 the race this Sunday night here on Pulmurray Life. Thanks 0:27:07.960 --> 0:27:15.119 for watching, Thank you so much for watching. Let's get 0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:17.879 into it now. Let's go hardcore, especially on a Sunday night. 0:27:17.960 --> 0:27:21.160 Happy Easter to Costam Marius from the Red Bridge Organization 0:27:21.359 --> 0:27:23.480 and none of them, Michael Kraeger thank you, sir, Happy 0:27:23.480 --> 0:27:26.760 East to you the liberal legend out of Victoria. Lots 0:27:26.840 --> 0:27:28.560 to get to, including an awful lot of data to 0:27:28.640 --> 0:27:31.399 play with tonight, and I will get into this preference 0:27:31.400 --> 0:27:32.879 stuff because it is going to matter. We're down to 0:27:32.920 --> 0:27:36.239 fractions of fractions and votes start on Tuesday. All right, 0:27:36.320 --> 0:27:38.800 let's get to this here, because what if anything is 0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:40.879 interesting you in all of the data that we're around 0:27:40.880 --> 0:27:44.359 at the moment, is anything moving about and in what direction? 0:27:45.600 --> 0:27:48.840 Yeah, it's just a continuation of the coalition losing a 0:27:48.920 --> 0:27:53.280 lot of votes to minor parties, very significant numbers. So 0:27:53.520 --> 0:27:57.119 even in our track which you you put up there 0:27:57.320 --> 0:28:00.679 just before, I mean it's eleven percent dropping victory alone 0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:03.160 in primary vote and a lot of it just going 0:28:03.200 --> 0:28:07.119 to minor parties. And it's happening nationally. It's happening very 0:28:07.160 --> 0:28:09.440 big numbers. And then the preferences are not coming back 0:28:09.480 --> 0:28:12.520 to them. And you know, we could talk about, you know, 0:28:12.640 --> 0:28:15.320 with the impact that that parton might have in that space, 0:28:15.440 --> 0:28:19.280 but it's going to be pretty tough for Peter Dutton 0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:22.399 and his team to get anywhere near close to be 0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.800 able to negotiate with that cross bench. It's looking pretty grim. 0:28:26.040 --> 0:28:27.960 Yeah, I look on all of this data, you can 0:28:28.040 --> 0:28:30.000 only really conclude one thing, which is it's a conversation 0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:34.560 about majority or minority when it comes to labor. But Michael, again, 0:28:34.840 --> 0:28:37.040 same stuff about this data. Are we now in a 0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:40.360 conversation where we are discussing you know, there's always a 0:28:40.480 --> 0:28:42.640 chance or as possibility, but we are now talking about 0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:46.200 majority minority here or on a day, this and that 0:28:46.440 --> 0:28:47.360 and all the rest of it. 0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:53.120 Well, the pole has been wrong before on many occasions. 0:28:53.240 --> 0:28:56.840 We know if that poll is right, then Alberici probably 0:28:56.880 --> 0:29:01.080 wins with the minority government. But I just can't help 0:29:01.160 --> 0:29:05.320 but thinking that's right. I mean, look at Victoria for example, Paul. So, 0:29:05.600 --> 0:29:08.320 the labor primary vote dropped four percent at the last 0:29:08.360 --> 0:29:13.400 election in Victoria, right, but in twelve of its seats 0:29:13.960 --> 0:29:16.840 the swing again the primary vote again dropping in labor, 0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:20.880 was five to fourteen percent. So there are number of 0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:24.600 seats eight nine, ten percent and Scullon was fourteen percent 0:29:24.640 --> 0:29:28.720 if you've got Holt, Fraser, Gorton, Carewell, Scullon. So what 0:29:28.800 --> 0:29:32.320 does that mean. It means that the swing against labor 0:29:32.720 --> 0:29:37.040 was very heavily in its own safe seats. So given 0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:40.120 that Labor have run a very traditional campaign, which is 0:29:40.200 --> 0:29:42.560 the usual in medicares under attack again, it's going to 0:29:42.600 --> 0:29:46.080 be sold, bashed, you know, slashed and burned, et cetera, 0:29:46.120 --> 0:29:50.000 as the usual campaign of lies. That appeals very much 0:29:50.120 --> 0:29:53.160 to Labour's base. So I wonder whether Labour's vote, say 0:29:53.200 --> 0:29:56.960 in Victoria and maybe nationally, is returning to the Labor 0:29:57.040 --> 0:29:59.640 Party in its safe seats and not so much in 0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:01.920 the marke Tools and that's where Peter Dutton would be 0:30:02.040 --> 0:30:04.800 very much alive. The second thing I'll put to cause though, 0:30:04.920 --> 0:30:07.760 is a month ago, because you had the Coalition four 0:30:07.840 --> 0:30:10.600 percent in front in two party preferred terms and you've 0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:14.280 got the nine behind. So do you think there's been 0:30:14.320 --> 0:30:17.400 a six and a half percent swing two party preferred 0:30:17.960 --> 0:30:21.120 against the Coalition in the last month, Because that's a 0:30:21.280 --> 0:30:22.120 man's number. 0:30:23.000 --> 0:30:26.320 And this pole that we're talking about is in key seats, 0:30:26.400 --> 0:30:29.560 not in the safe seats, So these are marginal seats. 0:30:30.000 --> 0:30:33.320 It's not in your halls, not in your phrases, and 0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:36.720 it's not because the Labor Party is picking up votes. 0:30:36.960 --> 0:30:40.360 It's because Peter Dutton and the Coalition are losing to 0:30:40.560 --> 0:30:42.440 the minor parties. We've been talking about this now for 0:30:42.440 --> 0:30:45.680 a few weeks it is a phenomenon that we see 0:30:45.720 --> 0:30:50.600 across the country, whether it's it's state elections in West Australia, 0:30:51.320 --> 0:30:55.440 whether it's in Queensland, whether it's in other states as well. 0:30:56.040 --> 0:30:57.720 You know where would be by election was a really 0:30:57.800 --> 0:31:02.200 good example of that. The Ages now lose a stack 0:31:02.240 --> 0:31:05.520 of votes to minor parties, but the other major party 0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:08.640 doesn't pick it all up. So that's fundamentally the challenge here, 0:31:09.080 --> 0:31:12.960 and we're looking at a very polarized electric you're either 0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:16.080 plant you're batting for the blue team or you're batting 0:31:16.120 --> 0:31:17.760 for the red team. If you're upset with one or 0:31:17.800 --> 0:31:20.120 the other, you don't go on swap. And that's what's 0:31:20.120 --> 0:31:20.640 going on here. 0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.920 Yeah. Also because because again there's a lot of this 0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:26.400 data that will appear in other places at other times, 0:31:26.440 --> 0:31:28.560 So I don't want to jump ahead of anything where 0:31:28.560 --> 0:31:31.240 it might be so yell out f I am. But 0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:33.320 something I'm noticing in those waves A right, what we 0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:36.120 were talking about before about how Labour's vote gets better 0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:37.920 over the past four weeks. The vote goes down over 0:31:37.960 --> 0:31:42.800 the past four weeks. The Greens vote in the most 0:31:42.920 --> 0:31:46.560 recent and the one before has exploded. I mean it 0:31:46.640 --> 0:31:49.800 has gone straight through the roof in some of these seats. 0:31:50.240 --> 0:31:53.160 Is that what determines that two party preferred conversation, because 0:31:53.200 --> 0:31:55.680 clearly if the Greens are up, the preferences are up. 0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:59.160 Is that the X factor in these twenty seats that 0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:03.240 according to this the Greens they're up a very significant amount. 0:32:04.040 --> 0:32:08.000 Yeah, gen Z, they're up to thirty three percent, and 0:32:08.360 --> 0:32:11.280 so people in their twenties in all these seats. This 0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:14.240 is where their growth is occurring for the Greens. And 0:32:14.360 --> 0:32:17.680 this is where the impact of these younger generations are 0:32:17.720 --> 0:32:20.440 having on the coalition. So if we look at all 0:32:20.480 --> 0:32:26.480 those generations, the Coalition does not win gen Z, Millennial 0:32:27.040 --> 0:32:30.000 or gen X. It only pulls off a win with 0:32:30.160 --> 0:32:33.160 baby boomers by a considerable margin by ad but they're 0:32:33.200 --> 0:32:35.840 no longer a dominant force in this country when it 0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:39.480 comes to politics and voting. So it's gen Z that's 0:32:39.480 --> 0:32:43.040 inflicting a lot of damage on the coalition then, but 0:32:43.120 --> 0:32:46.760 also millennials leaving the coalition and going to minor parties 0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:47.120 as well. 0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:50.120 Right, But then again, the stuff that might be a 0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:52.680 little counterfactual of feeling like the winds are blowing in 0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:56.000 both directions when people see a demographic this and that 0:32:56.120 --> 0:32:59.040 that says younger men are more conservative than ever before. 0:32:59.480 --> 0:33:02.080 But we see they're part of a generation that seems 0:33:02.120 --> 0:33:05.280 to be again leaping further to the left than a 0:33:05.480 --> 0:33:10.520 previous ones. So which is is there a myth out 0:33:10.560 --> 0:33:15.040 there that young blokes are conservative and therefore there's going 0:33:15.120 --> 0:33:17.800 to be some sort of eruction here or it is 0:33:18.080 --> 0:33:20.320 just a sub section of a sub section here. 0:33:21.240 --> 0:33:23.920 Yeah, subsection of a subsection. But the young blokes we're 0:33:23.960 --> 0:33:29.440 talking about actually anti establishment, right right, So that's why 0:33:29.480 --> 0:33:32.040 they like Trump, you know, so yeah, bugging them all, 0:33:32.720 --> 0:33:36.280 that's right, and they go for right wing populist leaders 0:33:36.320 --> 0:33:39.840 around the world. But they're a subsection, they're not the 0:33:39.920 --> 0:33:44.440 whole group. But that's absolutely the case. They still have 0:33:44.600 --> 0:33:50.600 young men that are far more reactionary and supportive of 0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:54.880 right wing populist leaders around the world than women in 0:33:55.000 --> 0:33:56.120 the same age categories. 0:33:56.760 --> 0:33:58.680 Can we bring up the graphic which shows the primary 0:33:58.760 --> 0:34:01.320 vote from newspaper here, because I'm just doing the quick 0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:03.920 mats in my hip here. If we're talking about preference 0:34:03.960 --> 0:34:06.480 discipline again, this is why it really matters. If you're 0:34:06.480 --> 0:34:08.960 somebody who's thinking about something other than a major party, 0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:11.160 I say, you have to pick who you think is 0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:14.000 going to be the government with your number two vote. Otherwise, 0:34:14.080 --> 0:34:16.000 if it goes for a long walk, well there's a 0:34:16.080 --> 0:34:19.680 chance that the current mob stays in the primary vote. 0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:23.680 Labour's thirty four, Greens twelve put it together at forty seven. 0:34:23.960 --> 0:34:26.440 Let's imagine there was one hundred percent preference discipline, there 0:34:26.440 --> 0:34:28.719 won't be with one nation supporters of the Liberal National 0:34:28.840 --> 0:34:32.040 that's forty one. So again, Michael, this is what's got 0:34:32.080 --> 0:34:34.640 to be the concern here, which is especially the decision 0:34:34.640 --> 0:34:38.319 of trumpet patriots to take the bug of them all. 0:34:38.400 --> 0:34:41.840 But there are more Liberals that are in tighter fights 0:34:41.920 --> 0:34:46.040 than Labor MPs. Now it's not suggesting that the Labor 0:34:46.080 --> 0:34:47.920 Party is going to go and take a whole bunch 0:34:48.080 --> 0:34:51.200 of Liberal seats, but it is a major decision, and 0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:54.600 I've got to say, I'm not sure why the trumpet Patriots, 0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:58.400 which is obviously coming from the right, is going to 0:34:58.520 --> 0:35:04.680 help facilitate the statistical removal of more people closer to 0:35:04.800 --> 0:35:07.960 what they believe, rather than in places like Bradfield where 0:35:07.960 --> 0:35:12.279 they're going to preference the Teal first, that's number two 0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:13.160 on the ballot. 0:35:13.400 --> 0:35:21.440 Mate, mate, Remember this, Not everything in life can be explained, So. 0:35:21.560 --> 0:35:25.440 Do you feel I mean, obviously twenty nineteen, seriously, but 0:35:25.520 --> 0:35:28.799 I get twenty nineteen serious tens of minutes of dollars 0:35:28.880 --> 0:35:31.720 on Bugger Shorten. Twenty twenty two was buger the system. 0:35:31.960 --> 0:35:34.600 Now he's doing buger the system again. You would agree 0:35:34.640 --> 0:35:37.239 with me that that's very bad news for the Lips, right. 0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:43.400 Well, yes, oh, you know, if he's preferencing two to 0:35:43.800 --> 0:35:50.000 a teal in Bradfield and preferencing against sitting Liberal members, 0:35:50.520 --> 0:35:52.360 of course that's going to harm us because we're the 0:35:52.400 --> 0:35:54.600 ones that need to win seats. And if you look 0:35:54.640 --> 0:35:56.839 at one nation, one nation, sorry, if you look at 0:35:58.280 --> 0:36:01.240 Palm Trump not Australian. 0:36:01.080 --> 0:36:03.719 Australian Party, the Palmer Party, the. 0:36:03.800 --> 0:36:07.360 Yellow whatever it's called. Yeah, it was the UAP in 0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:12.120 twenty twenty two. We got sixty two percent of their preferences. 0:36:13.239 --> 0:36:17.560 So in a seat where he is preferencing to labor 0:36:17.800 --> 0:36:21.600 or a teal, you can assume that those people are 0:36:21.680 --> 0:36:23.200 going to get a lot more than thirty eight percent 0:36:23.239 --> 0:36:25.120 of their preferences. So is it going to dan me 0:36:25.280 --> 0:36:27.800 jus Y said, will damage this to how much? You 0:36:27.880 --> 0:36:30.799 don't know? I mean, is a trumpet of Patriots voter 0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:36.000 likely to want a preference second a teal or labor who, 0:36:37.280 --> 0:36:40.839 as you've as you've poured out, vehemently opposed the Trump administration. 0:36:40.920 --> 0:36:44.480 They to test the Trump administration. So this will bewilder 0:36:44.560 --> 0:36:47.560 some of his own supporters, but quite frankly, it won't 0:36:47.600 --> 0:36:50.960 be the first time Parmer supporters have been bewildered. 0:36:51.000 --> 0:36:53.440 Mate well, judging by the comments on the Trumpet Patriots 0:36:53.520 --> 0:36:56.040 Facebook page in the past twenty four hours, including a 0:36:56.040 --> 0:36:58.680 couple of candidates that have been blowing up. So cos 0:36:58.840 --> 0:37:01.880 let's talk about that part factor because in most of 0:37:01.920 --> 0:37:05.320 the polls it would suggest that they're about half of 0:37:05.360 --> 0:37:08.279 where United Australia Party was same time three years ago. 0:37:08.440 --> 0:37:12.080 But Clyde Palmer, in his defense says, different brand, different issue, 0:37:12.160 --> 0:37:15.479 different people, It's still Team Yellow. Okay. Tell me about 0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:18.640 the Trumpet Patriots vote, particularly in those twenty marginals. 0:37:19.320 --> 0:37:20.720 Yeah, I would say there's a bit of a civil 0:37:20.760 --> 0:37:24.640 lining here for the coalition will. What we do know 0:37:24.800 --> 0:37:29.840 through analysis of voters behavior when they're handed aheat of okard, 0:37:30.880 --> 0:37:33.560 if you're voting for a minor party, you are least 0:37:33.800 --> 0:37:36.600 likely to follow that out of okard. Then you're voting 0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:39.240 for a major party. So what we know, for example, 0:37:39.400 --> 0:37:43.239 fifty or give or take, coalition and labor voters will 0:37:43.320 --> 0:37:46.279 follow the head of Oakard absolutely to the number. The 0:37:46.360 --> 0:37:49.239 other fifty percent don't, but when it comes to minor 0:37:49.320 --> 0:37:52.120 parties they will follow it based on their own beliefs. 0:37:52.719 --> 0:37:56.440 So I still think that where they are staffing those 0:37:56.560 --> 0:38:00.400 polling places, and that's the other critical factor here, is 0:38:00.480 --> 0:38:04.080 he going to staff the polling boops where they're staffing them, 0:38:04.520 --> 0:38:06.840 I think that will still preference very strongly to the 0:38:06.880 --> 0:38:08.960 coalition because the types of people that are voting for 0:38:09.520 --> 0:38:12.759 Partner's Operation are coming off the coalition. They're going to 0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:15.080 go back at about sixty to seventy percent. But again 0:38:15.160 --> 0:38:17.440 that's that thirty percent he's not getting that the colleges 0:38:17.440 --> 0:38:19.520 are not getting back and that's where it hurts them. 0:38:20.000 --> 0:38:22.239 Yeah, but also what about in that Teal factor, like 0:38:22.360 --> 0:38:26.000 again Bradfield north of Sydney. Now, look, the Teal got 0:38:26.080 --> 0:38:29.120 done by twenty points in terms of primary vote last time. Right, 0:38:29.400 --> 0:38:33.200 it's just assumed that because that's the one who's getting 0:38:33.239 --> 0:38:35.320 more money, getting the media attention, sort of getting the 0:38:35.400 --> 0:38:39.520 full Teal treatment, And it's not a sitting Liberal MP. 0:38:40.160 --> 0:38:45.160 But again those sorts of factors in those seats, it's 0:38:45.200 --> 0:38:46.960 going to be fascinating because, as I say, in a 0:38:47.000 --> 0:38:50.799 sitting teal Monique Ryan last right in a potential Teal 0:38:50.840 --> 0:38:55.200 seat like A one, and much higher in Bradfield number two. 0:38:55.840 --> 0:38:58.200 So we'll all see where it lands. But then this 0:38:58.280 --> 0:39:01.200 brings us to the other preference question, which is the Greens. Now, 0:39:01.320 --> 0:39:02.960 as I noticed in this if the Greens have been 0:39:03.040 --> 0:39:05.000 surging in the past couple of weeks, which is that 0:39:05.120 --> 0:39:08.319 data inside of Redbridge, then their preferences matter why because 0:39:08.320 --> 0:39:10.879 they get the discipline when it comes to Labor, don't 0:39:10.920 --> 0:39:13.879 you love, Michael, how the media works. The Labor Party 0:39:13.920 --> 0:39:16.200 came out and has preferenced them, not fourth, not sixth, 0:39:16.280 --> 0:39:19.239 not seventh, not eventually before they've done it. Number two. 0:39:19.719 --> 0:39:23.600 They're basically the full hand pass. The full pass has 0:39:23.680 --> 0:39:29.959 been made to the Greens. The controversy nothing, yeap. 0:39:30.080 --> 0:39:32.880 So we've talked before on this show about Albanesi preferencing 0:39:32.880 --> 0:39:34.360 in the Greens and would he do it? Would he 0:39:34.480 --> 0:39:37.799 do it? And he's always member, he's always battered it away. 0:39:37.840 --> 0:39:41.320 Today you know the organization when there's sort of faceless 0:39:41.320 --> 0:39:44.040 people in Canberra who know nothing to do with him. 0:39:45.160 --> 0:39:47.200 I mean, I think, I think a lot of people 0:39:47.280 --> 0:39:49.920 in this country today who follow these things are absolutely 0:39:50.000 --> 0:39:55.600 gobsmacked by Mark Dreyfus, the Attorney General, who is Jewish, 0:39:55.880 --> 0:40:00.919 who has preferenced the Greens second. That will not help 0:40:01.040 --> 0:40:03.480 by the way, Josh Burns in the seat of Macnamara 0:40:03.600 --> 0:40:06.600 in Victoria, because any Jewish voter who was even thinking 0:40:06.640 --> 0:40:09.279 about voting for Verns would look at Mark Drafts and 0:40:09.400 --> 0:40:13.560 think what the Jewish Attorney generals is preferencing the Greens 0:40:14.520 --> 0:40:18.560 second in his own seat. So that won't help them. 0:40:18.600 --> 0:40:21.879 But if preferencing the Green's going to help the Labor 0:40:21.920 --> 0:40:24.880 Party nationally, know, I mean, people you talk about the 0:40:24.960 --> 0:40:27.799 vote surging, it seems to be around twelve percent, which 0:40:27.880 --> 0:40:31.200 is what it's been for in the last election as well. 0:40:31.760 --> 0:40:33.560 I mean, remember this, a lot of young people are 0:40:33.600 --> 0:40:35.760 so appalled by the Greens and they're sort of anti 0:40:35.800 --> 0:40:40.600 Semitism that that they've fueled through the behavior of some 0:40:40.719 --> 0:40:44.680 of their MPs like Jennifer Leong, etc. There's a lot 0:40:44.719 --> 0:40:46.640 of young people that don't want to be associated with 0:40:46.719 --> 0:40:50.960 a party that many people believe these days have racist undertones. So, 0:40:51.840 --> 0:40:55.719 you know, younger people with gen Z and millennials and 0:40:55.800 --> 0:40:58.560 others who think it's trending to support the Greens. A 0:40:58.600 --> 0:41:00.720 lot of those people that I've speaked were having second 0:41:00.760 --> 0:41:03.920 thoughts because they don't like this whole sort of pro 0:41:04.120 --> 0:41:08.160 Palestinian bent by the Greens, which the undercurrent of which 0:41:08.239 --> 0:41:11.279 many people believe is you know, has fueled a lot 0:41:11.320 --> 0:41:14.480 of social division in this country by Bant and others 0:41:14.880 --> 0:41:19.040 supporting the demonstrations being so critical of Israel Netanyahu. They 0:41:19.120 --> 0:41:22.080 seem to take every way, you know, every opportunity to 0:41:22.400 --> 0:41:28.200 criticize Israel. So I don't think the Greens of giving 0:41:28.239 --> 0:41:33.920 preferences getting preferences from labor is going to go well 0:41:34.000 --> 0:41:35.840 amongst a lot of moderate labor voters. 0:41:35.920 --> 0:41:37.480 All right, I'll find out from these blokes but that 0:41:37.560 --> 0:41:40.160 they think a debate in the middle of a holiday 0:41:40.200 --> 0:41:43.200 slash slightly blood week for many Australians will actually matter. 0:41:43.680 --> 0:41:45.920 And let's get into those other polling data as well 0:41:45.960 --> 0:41:48.279 about what is the reason why you wouldn't end are 0:41:48.320 --> 0:41:51.640 voting for the Libs or for Labor. Fascinating and big 0:41:51.800 --> 0:41:53.839 changes there or a quick break back with more state 0:41:53.880 --> 0:42:02.839 of the race. Hardcore politics this Easter Sunday, this show, 0:42:03.160 --> 0:42:06.359 this bloke next week, Western Australia. If you can get 0:42:06.400 --> 0:42:08.600 to Cawgooley. We're plugging it hard because we want to 0:42:08.600 --> 0:42:10.560 fill the joint with as many people as possible. We 0:42:10.719 --> 0:42:13.600 know it's not a town of amnion people, okay, so 0:42:13.719 --> 0:42:15.880 we know we're not going to get the mega crowds 0:42:15.920 --> 0:42:18.120 that we've had in all other places, but we want 0:42:18.120 --> 0:42:20.239 as many people there as possible. Okay. So if you 0:42:20.280 --> 0:42:22.920 can get to Cawgooley in Western Australia next week, ourtown, 0:42:22.960 --> 0:42:24.960 it's Goenies dot com. That are you. If you're watching, 0:42:25.000 --> 0:42:28.279 you know someone there, give them a call. Many times 0:42:28.320 --> 0:42:29.840 we go and do our town. Somebody says, I've been 0:42:29.840 --> 0:42:31.120 a fan. I watch you every night, but I didn't 0:42:31.120 --> 0:42:33.240 know you were coming. Well, come on, here's the chance. 0:42:33.360 --> 0:42:35.919 Ourtown at skydews dot com dot Au. Back to Coross 0:42:35.920 --> 0:42:38.960 Samaras from Redbridge and of course a legend around these 0:42:39.040 --> 0:42:40.959 parts are on sky Newson. Of course some Liberal Party 0:42:40.960 --> 0:42:44.200 in Victoria and none other than Michael Kroger. So Michael, 0:42:44.520 --> 0:42:47.920 another debate this one Tuesday. It does happen first day 0:42:48.040 --> 0:42:50.719 of voting, but it is still a place where a 0:42:50.800 --> 0:42:53.120 lot of people certainly are think news of wils I 0:42:53.120 --> 0:42:56.040 don't know about Victoria school holidays. It's still one of 0:42:56.080 --> 0:42:59.000 these gray weeks, one of the wobble weeks. And I've 0:42:59.040 --> 0:43:01.160 got a feeling that I, judging by the journalism of 0:43:01.239 --> 0:43:03.440 Channel nine sixty minutes all the way through to the 0:43:03.480 --> 0:43:05.640 way they do their questions each and every night, they're 0:43:05.680 --> 0:43:07.480 going to have one objective and one objective only, and 0:43:07.520 --> 0:43:09.400 that is to go for the kill on Peter Dutton. 0:43:09.719 --> 0:43:12.040 That said, what do you think of the third debate? 0:43:14.520 --> 0:43:17.440 Well, all these debates take on increasing importance. The closer 0:43:17.520 --> 0:43:20.400 you get to the election, the more important they are. 0:43:20.880 --> 0:43:23.560 As every day passes, people are paying more and more attention. 0:43:24.960 --> 0:43:27.800 You know, Tuesday they start voting, so and they'll be 0:43:27.880 --> 0:43:31.320 heavy pre pole voting because you used to have an excuse, 0:43:31.360 --> 0:43:33.480 you needed an excuse to vert early. Now that doesn't 0:43:33.480 --> 0:43:36.080 seem to worry about that so effectively, these polls are 0:43:36.120 --> 0:43:38.480 open for a week and a half, So yeah, the 0:43:38.560 --> 0:43:41.600 debate's very important. There's a couple of other debates during 0:43:41.640 --> 0:43:44.800 the week as well. Keith Wallahan's debating the men before Mensies, 0:43:45.280 --> 0:43:47.399 So yeah, there's a health debate on Wednesday with Anne 0:43:47.440 --> 0:43:49.719 Rust and so all these debates are very important. There's 0:43:49.719 --> 0:43:51.600 absolutely no doubt about it. Can I just go back 0:43:51.640 --> 0:43:53.600 to a point I was making before. I've just seen 0:43:53.640 --> 0:43:58.160 something on the Australian website. This guy Jason Clare right, 0:43:58.920 --> 0:44:01.600 the Minister for Education, who's the member for Blaxland in 0:44:01.680 --> 0:44:05.839 New South Wales. He's he's put the Greens second, it's 0:44:05.920 --> 0:44:10.280 crazy on his how to vote card, and the Greens 0:44:10.360 --> 0:44:15.160 candidate the word extreme probably doesn't define him properly. He's 0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:19.959 on the record of saying Zionism is Nazism. He thinks 0:44:20.040 --> 0:44:24.920 Jews that believe in the homeland of nazis really mister Claire, 0:44:25.800 --> 0:44:28.359 you've put this Blake second on your had to vote card. 0:44:28.400 --> 0:44:32.560 That's sick, Jason, that is sick. You shouldn't be doing that. 0:44:33.280 --> 0:44:36.040 And this is where ALBANIZI right, this is the danger 0:44:36.120 --> 0:44:38.960 of this Blake right, he's running a mark, he's desperate 0:44:39.000 --> 0:44:43.720 to win, and he's done a deal with these extremists 0:44:44.520 --> 0:44:47.440 to get him back into government. You know, as rich 0:44:47.480 --> 0:44:50.480 I said, whatever it takes, whatever it takes, that was 0:44:50.719 --> 0:44:53.960 his famous book title, and that's what Albanese is doing. 0:44:54.040 --> 0:44:57.880 In Anthony Alberze is Prime ministers country. Shame on you. 0:44:59.520 --> 0:45:02.120 Now, Cole. I want to talk about Rare, not Redbridge, 0:45:02.160 --> 0:45:04.360 a resolve political monitor. Sorry, I got to keep a 0:45:04.440 --> 0:45:06.319 million different things starting with R in my head here right, 0:45:06.360 --> 0:45:08.879 and a couple of swear words as well. Work them out, 0:45:08.960 --> 0:45:12.160 Work them out. Now. This is really fascinating because again 0:45:12.239 --> 0:45:16.399 it shows the march of where things are now. I'm 0:45:16.440 --> 0:45:19.280 not totally sure whether this again is about undecided voters, 0:45:19.320 --> 0:45:21.520 whether this is about marginal seat voters, or whether this 0:45:21.640 --> 0:45:23.840 is just across everyone. So you've got the lovers and 0:45:23.880 --> 0:45:26.800 the haters in there. Okay. So the number one reason 0:45:26.880 --> 0:45:29.840 why someone would be hesitant about voting for Labor or 0:45:29.880 --> 0:45:33.440 Anthony Abernezi not enough action on cost of living, followed 0:45:33.520 --> 0:45:37.359 by the management of the economy For the Libs number 0:45:37.360 --> 0:45:40.600 one issue Peter Dutton's personality as leader and a lack 0:45:40.719 --> 0:45:45.320 of policy detail. What do those polls tell you about 0:45:45.719 --> 0:45:48.560 what you hear from voters when you ask them, so, 0:45:49.040 --> 0:45:51.040 what do you think you know? 0:45:51.200 --> 0:45:54.160 I think what we're seeing is they are just trying 0:45:54.200 --> 0:45:56.319 to find excuses as to why they're going to vote 0:45:56.360 --> 0:45:58.200 for labor, and it's really got to do with a 0:45:58.200 --> 0:46:03.000 global situation, right we shouldn't really discount just the impact 0:46:03.080 --> 0:46:07.080 that the tariff wars are having on the mindset of 0:46:07.120 --> 0:46:10.879 these voters. I mean, if you're these voters that we've 0:46:10.920 --> 0:46:13.759 been talking about now for some time, you know, at 0:46:13.800 --> 0:46:18.879 our suburban regional voters who have been financially struggling. I've 0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:22.759 endured a pandemic, You've enjoyed twelve interest rate rises, You're 0:46:22.760 --> 0:46:25.520 barely keeping your head above water, and suddenly the global 0:46:25.560 --> 0:46:29.880 economy is going in all sorts of places you never imagined. 0:46:31.320 --> 0:46:34.600 You're least likely to vote and incumber down. 0:46:35.320 --> 0:46:36.359 And this is what's going on here. 0:46:36.960 --> 0:46:40.760 Same impact that nine to eleven had in two thousand 0:46:40.760 --> 0:46:45.760 and one, with the same impact that the other global 0:46:45.800 --> 0:46:49.280 events that were quite seismic have had. Even the pandemic, 0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:52.160 the onset of the pandemic had a great effect on 0:46:53.120 --> 0:46:56.920 inflating incumbents numbers, And I think we shouldn't really discount 0:46:56.960 --> 0:46:59.760 what's going on here. So when we ask people these questions, 0:47:00.200 --> 0:47:01.960 they're just going to hang their hat on whatever they 0:47:02.000 --> 0:47:04.160 can be hang their had on. What we know for 0:47:04.360 --> 0:47:07.279 our research over the last couple of weeks, though, is 0:47:07.360 --> 0:47:09.880 that they are bringing this up the global situation on 0:47:10.000 --> 0:47:10.839 a regular. 0:47:10.520 --> 0:47:13.560 Basis, Yeah, which is why obviously as well, you start 0:47:13.600 --> 0:47:16.960 to hear, you know, both sides talking about it a lot. So, Michael, 0:47:17.520 --> 0:47:19.880 how do you keep doubt in the air? How do 0:47:20.000 --> 0:47:22.520 you keep the question up so that they don't fall 0:47:22.600 --> 0:47:23.600 on one side of the fence. 0:47:26.400 --> 0:47:30.759 So, Mate, a lot of elections in recent years the 0:47:30.840 --> 0:47:33.280 polls have been wrong, and there have been some elections 0:47:33.400 --> 0:47:37.799 where the vote has changed even up to polling day. 0:47:38.600 --> 0:47:42.720 The Victorian state election in twenty ten, everyone thought label 0:47:42.719 --> 0:47:44.560 were going to win, and then in the last four 0:47:44.640 --> 0:47:46.680 or five days the vote swung for the Liberal Party 0:47:46.840 --> 0:47:51.560 and Ted Bailey was elected Premier in Victoria. We all 0:47:51.680 --> 0:47:54.759 remember Election night twenty nineteen. We all turned up to 0:47:54.840 --> 0:48:00.200 whatever studio we were on, ready to ordain prime to 0:48:00.239 --> 0:48:03.920 Bill Shorten, well lo and behold, well we all shocked. 0:48:04.040 --> 0:48:05.879 And I'll tell you there's one thing I know about 0:48:05.920 --> 0:48:09.239 Saturday Week. There's one thing that on Saturday Night you'll 0:48:09.239 --> 0:48:11.760 be able to quote me when you say to people, 0:48:13.360 --> 0:48:16.839 I didn't expect that, because that's what's going to happen 0:48:16.920 --> 0:48:19.680 in a lot of these seats on Saturday Week. You're 0:48:19.680 --> 0:48:21.239 going to look at them and think, my god, I 0:48:21.520 --> 0:48:22.520 never saw that coming. 0:48:22.880 --> 0:48:26.080 I agree. And here's the thing. Nothing is inevitable, right 0:48:26.160 --> 0:48:27.680 for the labor people who think, oh we're on our 0:48:27.680 --> 0:48:30.480 way to works eighty hair goods. This nothing's locked in 0:48:30.640 --> 0:48:33.000 all right. Yes, lots of evidence, lots of trend all 0:48:33.040 --> 0:48:34.320 the rest of it. No one's going to look the 0:48:34.360 --> 0:48:38.279 other way. But nothing is inevitable. And that preference discipline again. 0:48:38.320 --> 0:48:41.040 It's a fascinating chat, lads. I love this chat. I 0:48:41.200 --> 0:48:42.960 love it because we're doing outown next week. We'll do 0:48:43.000 --> 0:48:44.960 it Monday on next week. Thank you so much. Of 0:48:45.040 --> 0:48:46.560 a great time and happy is it to you both? 0:48:46.680 --> 0:48:48.880 All right, that's our show for tonight. Stand by for 0:48:49.120 --> 0:48:49.800 the Royal Report.