WEBVTT - Credlin | 9 November 0:00:01.960 --> 0:00:06.590 Peter Credlin, live from News 24. 0:00:08.350 --> 0:00:10.490 Chris Kenny, I've got a mug to show my audience 0:00:10.550 --> 0:00:12.629 in just a moment. We'll get to that. But first 0:00:12.670 --> 0:00:14.710 of all, welcome to the program. Here's what's coming up 0:00:14.810 --> 0:00:18.500 on Credlin tonight. Labor's on the ropes in Victoria, or 0:00:18.820 --> 0:00:23.320 are they? Polling today points to an electoral wipeout for Labor. 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:27.990 Another fatal CBD stabbing puts crime back in the spotlight. 0:00:28.290 --> 0:00:30.610 But that's not the full story. I'll give you my 0:00:30.790 --> 0:00:34.370 analysis shortly. A joint campaign has kicked off today, too, 0:00:34.430 --> 0:00:37.790 involving the Herald Sun and News 24. We'll take a 0:00:37.830 --> 0:00:41.250 closer look at what's needed to fix Victoria. And tonight 0:00:41.270 --> 0:00:45.659 we're going to focus on hospitals and ambulances. Plus, Chris 0:00:45.700 --> 0:00:51.100 Bowen accused of pushing climate propaganda, giving businesses and community 0:00:51.140 --> 0:00:53.720 groups a little kit and telling them they've got to 0:00:53.820 --> 0:00:57.970 sell net zero ahead of his UN climate summit. And 0:00:58.030 --> 0:01:01.130 on the campaign trail today, crime was a major focus 0:01:01.170 --> 0:01:05.410 for both parties, promising to prioritise safety. 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.900 Under a Liberals Nationals government, we'll recruit 3,000 more police 0:01:10.340 --> 0:01:12.399 and then we'll ensure that the police stations that we 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:14.760 have promised will be open will be open because the 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:16.980 Victorian community deserves it and needs it. 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:20.770 Victorians have made it very clear that they pay for 0:01:20.830 --> 0:01:23.709 our police stations and they expect them open. 0:01:25.690 --> 0:01:29.569 But first, another day, another poll. Only today we've got 0:01:29.750 --> 0:01:32.990 two of them. One's a national poll, the other specific 0:01:33.090 --> 0:01:37.229 to Victoria, and both are a shocker for Labor. Let's 0:01:37.250 --> 0:01:40.080 start with the national one. This one's from Redbridge and 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:43.120 it's published in the Australian Financial Review this morning. Now, 0:01:43.140 --> 0:01:46.340 it wasn't that long ago that Labor's fall to a 26% 0:01:46.340 --> 0:01:50.840 primary was seen as a one-off. But poll after poll now, 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:54.460 has Labor this low? which shows that it's now the 0:01:54.580 --> 0:01:59.160 trend and that's catastrophic. Now, what would concern Labor strategists 0:01:59.220 --> 0:02:03.120 here is the two-factor hit in these numbers. Now, what 0:02:03.140 --> 0:02:06.160 do I mean by a two-factor hit? Well, this is 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.989 a hit, the first one, that you can do something about, 0:02:09.050 --> 0:02:12.270 and the other one's a hit that you can't. First, 0:02:12.290 --> 0:02:15.510 the hits that you can fix. For Labor, it's the 0:02:15.650 --> 0:02:19.450 economic pain in these low polling numbers that is hurting them. 0:02:20.100 --> 0:02:23.360 Last week's rate hike, definitely, that's reflected in this poll. 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:26.609 So too are the data like the massive drop in 0:02:26.830 --> 0:02:31.210 auction clearances reported over the last six months since the 0:02:31.250 --> 0:02:35.290 failed federal budget. There's been a less than 60% clearance 0:02:35.370 --> 0:02:39.850 rate at house auctions nationally. Buyers are just not buying, 0:02:39.870 --> 0:02:42.290 and the vendors then are left in limbo. And it 0:02:42.370 --> 0:02:47.669 impacts everyone in the property sector chain. Real estate agents, 0:02:48.030 --> 0:02:50.720 the people who do maintenance on these properties, the banks 0:02:50.750 --> 0:02:54.940 that approve the loans, everyone. And that's the first problem 0:02:55.260 --> 0:02:58.240 in today's national poll for Labor. Here's the second. And 0:02:58.260 --> 0:03:02.400 this one's much harder to fix, if not impossible. And 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:05.960 that's trust. Because, yes, part of Labor's poll dive is 0:03:06.139 --> 0:03:09.540 economic pain, but it's also the character of the Albanese 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:14.270 government and the prime minister himself in particular. Just one 0:03:14.290 --> 0:03:17.829 in five voters say they trust Anthony Albanese, meaning four 0:03:17.889 --> 0:03:22.310 out of five voters do not. And trust is incredibly 0:03:22.370 --> 0:03:25.810 hard to get back. Voters might forgive a lie if 0:03:25.830 --> 0:03:29.429 there's genuine remorse after it's been uncovered, but not where 0:03:29.470 --> 0:03:33.500 there's no remorse, no sorry, And no admission of fault. 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:37.990 And definitely not when it happens time and time again. 0:03:38.890 --> 0:03:41.610 Can you rule out any changes to negative gearing and 0:03:41.670 --> 0:03:42.770 capital gains tax? 0:03:42.810 --> 0:03:42.970 Yes. 0:03:43.590 --> 0:03:54.640 How hard is it for the 50th time? You know, 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:58.280 I stepped off the stage. I didn't fall over on 0:03:58.920 --> 0:03:59.720 my backside. 0:04:00.490 --> 0:04:01.260 I do not have a. 0:04:01.260 --> 0:04:04.230 Card as a member of Marrickville Golf Club. 0:04:04.690 --> 0:04:05.630 I haven't spoken. 0:04:05.650 --> 0:04:09.070 And I've been coming here for decades and using this club. 0:04:10.850 --> 0:04:13.350 Now, what's also worth noting tonight in the Redbridge poll 0:04:13.770 --> 0:04:17.630 is the significant increase in support for the coalition. Let's 0:04:17.670 --> 0:04:19.870 not forget when Angus Taylor took over the leadership at 0:04:19.890 --> 0:04:22.510 the start of the year from Susan Lee, the Liberal 0:04:22.529 --> 0:04:27.539 Party's primary vote was 15%. In this poll... The coalition's 0:04:27.580 --> 0:04:31.680 up four points to a solid 25% primary. Now, sure, 0:04:31.700 --> 0:04:34.640 there's a long way to go. But credit where it's due, 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:39.000 the Taylor-led opposition's managed to claw itself back from the 0:04:39.100 --> 0:04:43.609 abyss and start to rebuild after the disastrous tenure of 0:04:43.690 --> 0:04:46.970 Susan Lee. Now, partly that's because there's been a strong 0:04:47.370 --> 0:04:50.750 economic narrative from the opposition leader, and that's been missing 0:04:50.810 --> 0:04:54.640 for some time, but also because finally the Liberals have 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.880 taken off the gloves of when it comes to the 0:04:56.920 --> 0:05:01.160 Prime Minister and his character. A good example of this 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.290 is the scandal around the Marrickville Golf Club and that 0:05:04.290 --> 0:05:08.150 $ 6 million grant that Albanese gave to his golf club mates. 0:05:08.830 --> 0:05:11.130 In the whole scheme of things, given this is a 0:05:11.210 --> 0:05:15.350 government that loves to waste billions, $ 6 million is not 0:05:15.390 --> 0:05:18.529 a lot of money. But what turned this small story 0:05:18.850 --> 0:05:21.710 into a big one, as we showed you here on 0:05:21.790 --> 0:05:25.429 Credlin night after night, is how quickly the Prime Minister 0:05:25.529 --> 0:05:29.599 turned it into an own goal. Because what he told 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:33.460 the Parliament and what the official documents told me were 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.540 two very different things. That he had nothing to do 0:05:36.580 --> 0:05:39.350 with the club, but he did. That the grant was 0:05:39.510 --> 0:05:43.100 all about the sewerage when it wasn't. that the Prime 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:48.870 Minister said was the decision maker, the infrastructure minister, that 0:05:48.890 --> 0:05:52.250 the process was run arm's length by public servants, that 0:05:52.270 --> 0:05:57.380 it was all above board, when instead Labor Party operatives 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:01.600 made the political call on taxpayer millions. 0:06:02.300 --> 0:06:04.920 The idea for the grants program originate with you or 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.500 with the PM and his office or in Labor Party HQ? 0:06:10.770 --> 0:06:14.890 Election commitments, for this specific grant, there is an election 0:06:14.930 --> 0:06:18.240 commitments process that all political parties run as we lead 0:06:18.270 --> 0:06:19.620 into the election campaign. 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:24.240 Was Labor's head office involved in that process? 0:06:25.380 --> 0:06:26.240 Yeah, absolutely. 0:06:26.260 --> 0:06:29.800 Yeah, absolutely, because it's an election commitment process. It's a 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:30.739 political process. 0:06:32.580 --> 0:06:34.300 Now, as you've heard me say here often, it's not 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:38.080 the crime but the cover-up that gets you caught in 0:06:38.140 --> 0:06:41.059 the end. And it's a lot easier for ordinary voters 0:06:41.100 --> 0:06:45.359 to understand and follow a $ 6 million rip-off and those 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.140 lies to the Parliament than it is to follow some 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:52.420 of the more complex examples of Albanese government rorts. So 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.539 that's the first poll, that's the national poll. The other 0:06:55.580 --> 0:06:59.260 big poll today is the Demos Premier National Poll and 0:06:59.300 --> 0:07:02.200 it was published this morning in the Herald Sun. With 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:05.260 just three weeks now until polling day and just over 0:07:05.300 --> 0:07:09.490 a week before pre-polls open, these numbers are catastrophic for 0:07:09.530 --> 0:07:13.090 Ben Carroll. So let's go through them now. Out in front, 0:07:13.110 --> 0:07:16.170 you've got a 33% primary. That's for the coalition. That's 0:07:16.190 --> 0:07:19.380 the Liberals and the Nationals led by Jess Wilson. For 0:07:19.460 --> 0:07:23.780 One Nation, it's a 21% primary. And way, way back 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:28.200 in the pack at just 18%, you've got Labor. Now, 18%, 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:34.050 if reflected on polling day, means Labor's gone. Or are they? 0:07:34.780 --> 0:07:37.960 Because the poll also records very strong numbers for the Greens. 0:07:37.980 --> 0:07:43.060 They're up at 17%. And given the Greens' preferences end 0:07:43.140 --> 0:07:47.440 up with Labor about 90% of the time, add the 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:51.790 17 and the 18 together, you get around 35%. Meaning 0:07:51.830 --> 0:07:55.410 this Victorian election is a long way from being won 0:07:55.650 --> 0:07:56.370 by the Liberals. 0:07:56.710 --> 0:07:57.270 Good, yes. 0:07:57.990 --> 0:08:00.610 And you'd most certainly prefer to be Jess Wilson tonight 0:08:00.650 --> 0:08:01.510 than Ben Carroll. 0:08:01.550 --> 0:08:02.100 But won? 0:08:02.890 --> 0:08:06.460 Not by a long shot. Over the weekend, I was 0:08:06.690 --> 0:08:08.809 out and about on the ground in the Geelong seat 0:08:08.870 --> 0:08:12.890 of South Barwon. Now, it's a must-win marginal for the Liberals, 0:08:13.270 --> 0:08:17.030 with their candidate Libby Pettis, a local businesswoman, mum and 0:08:17.050 --> 0:08:20.970 a former champion athlete, and she's up against a former 0:08:20.990 --> 0:08:25.230 ex-Dan Andrews staffer, one of the ultimate sort of Labor 0:08:25.270 --> 0:08:29.570 insiders from Melbourne. In this seat, they want Labor gone. 0:08:29.890 --> 0:08:33.030 That was the clear message from conversations on the weekend. 0:08:33.530 --> 0:08:37.740 But not everyone's decided where their vote will go. That's 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.700 the big job there for Libby and every other Liberal 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:43.520 between now and polling day. If you want to change 0:08:43.580 --> 0:08:45.260 the government, if you want to get rid of Labor, 0:08:45.580 --> 0:08:50.380 you have to put the Liberals first. Sure, put Labor last, sure, 0:08:50.990 --> 0:08:52.910 but that won't mean they are thrown out of office, 0:08:52.990 --> 0:08:56.720 given that cosy preference deal with the Greens and some 0:08:56.740 --> 0:09:00.420 of these so-called independents. The Liberals have to get a 0:09:00.460 --> 0:09:05.160 strong primary vote swing to them, around 8%, to throw 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:08.580 out Labor. It's also worth noting about today's Victorian poll, 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.520 there's a big reversal in those numbers for Ben Carroll 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:15.940 personally too. Back in September, the last time voters were polled, 0:09:16.500 --> 0:09:19.429 Carroll was ahead of Wilson as preferred Premier, 32 to 31. Well, 0:09:19.450 --> 0:09:23.990 not anymore. Wilson's now ahead 36 points to his 28. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.340 And she's the only party leader in Victoria now with 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:34.730 a positive rating in the poll overall. As a Demis 0:09:34.929 --> 0:09:38.370 pollster told the Herald Sun today, Ben Carroll's new leader 0:09:38.429 --> 0:09:42.950 bounce has not only faded, he says, it's reversed. And 0:09:42.990 --> 0:09:47.350 his personal ratings are now deeply in negative territory, not 0:09:47.390 --> 0:09:51.440 all that far from where they were under Jacinta Allen. 0:09:52.130 --> 0:09:54.410 Now what's more is that Wilson's now picking up voters 0:09:54.750 --> 0:09:59.950 from within traditionally Labor demographics. And two prime examples here 0:10:00.300 --> 0:10:05.760 are where the coalition's now moving ahead with low-income households 0:10:06.179 --> 0:10:11.540 and has drawn level with Labor amongst renters. With a 0:10:11.540 --> 0:10:14.920 toxic Labor brand now in Victoria and, of course, federally 0:10:14.970 --> 0:10:18.870 in Canberra, certainly with the Prime Minister, I'll tell you what, 0:10:18.890 --> 0:10:23.370 those Labor strategists are in a world of pain. Frankly, 0:10:23.970 --> 0:10:27.309 they deserve it. Because when you lie, like Labor does, 0:10:27.350 --> 0:10:30.990 when you use taxpayer money to corruptly buy votes or 0:10:31.070 --> 0:10:35.670 trade favours with union mates, eventually the electorate works you out. 0:10:36.309 --> 0:10:38.329 I just hope in the case of Victoria, with just 0:10:38.370 --> 0:10:41.270 three weeks to go, it's enough time for people to 0:10:41.429 --> 0:10:46.010 understand how to throw out the most corrupt government Australia's 0:10:46.050 --> 0:10:51.220 ever seen. Because then, Albo, They are coming after you. 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:58.110 I don't give you anything. Here's a Christmas present idea 0:10:58.170 --> 0:11:02.650 for you. This lovely red mug for your morning coffee. 0:11:03.230 --> 0:11:05.050 I picked up one on the weekend. Do you know 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:09.530 what it says? Three mugs on a mug. I love it. 0:11:09.860 --> 0:11:13.100 I absolutely love it. It's a daily reminder of the Andrews, 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:17.020 Allen and Carroll governments. Don't ever forget what they did 0:11:17.059 --> 0:11:19.980 to Victoria and why they've got to be thrown out 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:22.580 in three weeks' time. If you want one of these mugs, 0:11:22.620 --> 0:11:24.420 if you want one of your own, well, here's how 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.819 you can buy one if you're interested. Don't wait too long. 0:11:28.100 --> 0:11:33.079 I can guarantee you, Allen, Andrews and Carroll, these mugs 0:11:33.380 --> 0:11:40.950 will soon be a collector's edition. head to the Liberal 0:11:40.970 --> 0:11:44.450 Party website, get one. Honestly, put it in the pool room. 0:11:44.470 --> 0:11:46.429 You'll be able to sell it on eBay for a 0:11:46.550 --> 0:11:48.520 lot of money in a few years' time. Let's head 0:11:48.540 --> 0:11:50.699 to Canberra now for the headlines with our political reporter, 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:51.679 Ruben Spargo. 0:11:52.590 --> 0:11:53.050 Good evening. 0:11:53.330 --> 0:11:55.860 The opposition leader is pledging to cut federal red tape 0:11:55.890 --> 0:11:59.700 by 25% in the coalition's first term if it wins 0:11:59.770 --> 0:12:03.239 the next election. A so-called red tape razor gang will 0:12:03.260 --> 0:12:07.160 be tasked with combing through government regulations line by line. 0:12:07.380 --> 0:12:10.980 Angus Taylor claims the overhaul could deliver $ 40 billion in 0:12:11.100 --> 0:12:12.860 annual savings for businesses. 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.440 So in just over a decade, the cost of complying 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.240 with federal regulation has more than doubled. 0:12:19.340 --> 0:12:21.260 The Liberal and National parties will. 0:12:21.130 --> 0:12:24.750 Undertake an ambitious program of regulatory reform. 0:12:25.110 --> 0:12:28.750 Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously outlined Labor's own plan to 0:12:28.790 --> 0:12:33.540 revive stagnant productivity growth, promising to cut regulatory costs by 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:34.980 more than $ 10. 0:12:34.300 --> 0:12:35.400 Billion a year. 0:12:35.420 --> 0:12:39.319 A Senate inquiry is underway into the Albanese government's proposed 0:12:39.500 --> 0:12:43.350 digital duty of care legislation. Senators are set to question 0:12:43.370 --> 0:12:47.100 the e-safety commissioner over the bill tomorrow. The Coalition is 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:49.540 again warning against government overreach. 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.229 And I've raised concerns that that could mean that material 0:12:52.270 --> 0:12:55.290 which is critical of the government's climate change on net 0:12:55.309 --> 0:12:56.070 zero policies. 0:12:56.610 --> 0:13:00.010 Could technically be shut down if this power was abused. Right. 0:13:00.050 --> 0:13:02.950 Now, I'm not talking about the quality of those arguments, right? 0:13:03.190 --> 0:13:03.410 No. 0:13:03.710 --> 0:13:05.110 You could sit on any side of this debate. 0:13:05.130 --> 0:13:08.190 It's the power. It's the unlimited nature of the power. 0:13:08.270 --> 0:13:12.380 Jewish and Muslim organisations are backing a separate Greens proposal 0:13:12.429 --> 0:13:16.120 to make tech giants legally accountable for harmful content targeting 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.700 people because of their race or religion. 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:24.020 All right, that new federal polling today revealing that voters 0:13:24.059 --> 0:13:27.069 are losing trust in the Prime Minister. And the Marrickville 0:13:27.150 --> 0:13:30.480 Golf Club scandal, we revealed it first here on the show, 0:13:30.980 --> 0:13:36.110 has been a key driver of discontent. The latest data 0:13:36.130 --> 0:13:38.890 from the Resolve Political Monitor shows that only 20% of 0:13:38.929 --> 0:13:43.270 those polls say they trust what Anthony Albanese says. And 0:13:43.290 --> 0:13:46.220 we have to factor in Labor's primary vote, down to 0:13:46.250 --> 0:13:50.320 a record low 26% in the latest Redbridge polling. As 0:13:50.340 --> 0:13:52.380 the coalition, we saw a move in there as far 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.800 as I said, 25%. It's now moving closer and closer 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.380 to the government. Here to discuss the detail, Redbridge Group 0:13:59.420 --> 0:14:02.750 Australia Director, Cos Samaras. Well, Cos, this is a bit 0:14:02.790 --> 0:14:05.830 like the grand final season for you and I. We've 0:14:05.850 --> 0:14:08.170 got this big poll obviously in Victoria. We'll get to 0:14:08.210 --> 0:14:12.160 that in a tick. But this is a damning indictment. 0:14:12.690 --> 0:14:15.770 on character for the Prime Minister. And I mentioned at 0:14:15.790 --> 0:14:17.569 the top of the show, there's things you can fix 0:14:17.630 --> 0:14:22.010 in polling and there's things that are very hard, like character, 0:14:22.610 --> 0:14:24.989 and this is starting to feel like it's baked in. 0:14:26.250 --> 0:14:28.910 Yeah, if we look at what's going on at the moment, 0:14:28.950 --> 0:14:32.680 the coalition's picked up a significant amount of support and 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:35.720 it's largely due to the state of the economy. So 0:14:35.740 --> 0:14:41.160 I've always had a hypothesis that sooner or later most 0:14:41.220 --> 0:14:45.440 voters will start basically complaining about what's happened to them 0:14:45.460 --> 0:14:47.940 in the past and worried about what's going on right now. 0:14:48.540 --> 0:14:51.700 So five interest rates rises later. 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:54.640 We've seen the consequences of that. 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.620 And, you know, to the benefit of the coalition, they 0:14:57.970 --> 0:15:00.670 are gaining ground because of the economy. And that's the 0:15:00.730 --> 0:15:03.790 area they need to focus on. And so I think 0:15:03.830 --> 0:15:07.390 that what we're seeing here is probably a trend that 0:15:07.410 --> 0:15:11.050 we're going to see into next year unless the economy 0:15:11.070 --> 0:15:11.650 turns around. 0:15:13.270 --> 0:15:16.390 So they don't buy Jim Chalmers' argument that this is 0:15:16.430 --> 0:15:18.890 all to do with the Iran war or Ukraine or 0:15:18.930 --> 0:15:19.820 it's not our fault? 0:15:20.820 --> 0:15:21.700 They've got mixed views. 0:15:21.740 --> 0:15:25.160 They'll say it's the overseas conflict because, of course, the 0:15:25.180 --> 0:15:27.640 petrol bowser doesn't lie to them. They know what's happened 0:15:27.660 --> 0:15:30.800 over the last six months. But they also would say, well, 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:33.860 you know, politicians are not really doing enough to actually 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:38.500 fix this problem either. They just, you know, put them 0:15:38.540 --> 0:15:41.140 all in the one basket. They push that basket into 0:15:41.180 --> 0:15:44.190 a room. And on the front of the door is 0:15:44.230 --> 0:15:47.130 a sign called decision makers, all of them. And so 0:15:47.150 --> 0:15:50.250 if you're an incumbent, you're in trouble, right? Trump will 0:15:50.290 --> 0:15:55.400 tell you that. In this country, the riots in Italy, 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:58.800 in France, these are all to do with inflationary pressures 0:15:58.860 --> 0:15:59.280 on people. 0:15:59.620 --> 0:16:02.270 And you would not want to be in government right now. 0:16:04.100 --> 0:16:06.560 Is that the only dead weight in the 26% primary? 0:16:06.580 --> 0:16:09.480 Because that is a sort of suicidal number for Labor. 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.080 They need a primary at least with a good strong 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:15.460 three in front of it. What else is driving those numbers? 0:16:16.070 --> 0:16:18.270 Well, lack of vision I think is probably the other thing. 0:16:19.590 --> 0:16:22.830 Most Australians know they are living in a world that 0:16:22.870 --> 0:16:25.570 is now far more complex than they grew up in. 0:16:26.790 --> 0:16:29.290 For a lot of them, particularly the younger ones, they've 0:16:29.410 --> 0:16:31.720 never seen anything like it. And so they know that 0:16:32.460 --> 0:16:36.490 the fix is complex. and it needs leadership. And that's what's, 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.870 I think, missing across the political spectrum. I think the 0:16:40.270 --> 0:16:42.470 coalition is getting a little bit better at it, but 0:16:42.510 --> 0:16:45.290 they really need to focus on their brand equity, which 0:16:45.350 --> 0:16:47.650 is the economy, and they seem to be doing that 0:16:47.670 --> 0:16:50.460 over the last month or so, and it's bearing dividends 0:16:50.500 --> 0:16:50.780 for them. 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:54.100 Talk to me about Victoria. I know you're in the 0:16:54.140 --> 0:16:57.660 field at the moment. You'll have some analysis tomorrow out 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:01.030 and published in relation to a Victorian poll. Is there 0:17:01.070 --> 0:17:05.679 any headwinds? for Labor Victoria coming out of Labor Canberra 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:07.040 or vice versa? 0:17:10.380 --> 0:17:12.220 Yeah, look, I think what's going on in Victoria is 0:17:12.260 --> 0:17:15.679 pretty clear. I think that Labor's primary is in the 0:17:15.700 --> 0:17:19.699 low 20s. I think they've gone backwards since they've swapped leaders. 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:23.120 It's not to say that the previous administration was going 0:17:23.140 --> 0:17:25.979 to fare any better in this campaign, but the more 0:17:26.220 --> 0:17:27.840 Victorians switch onto the campaign. 0:17:27.859 --> 0:17:30.080 The more they're basically moving away from Labor. 0:17:30.810 --> 0:17:32.990 And what we are seeing is also a decline in 0:17:33.130 --> 0:17:36.550 One Nation support and all of that's flowing to the coalition. 0:17:37.130 --> 0:17:40.090 So right now, based on our analysis, and we've got 0:17:40.130 --> 0:17:43.380 a pot coming up again this week, the coalition's winning 0:17:43.690 --> 0:17:45.720 what we would define as a lot of these sort 0:17:45.740 --> 0:17:48.740 of three-way contests. There's at least 35 of them, that 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:53.359 is 35 state seats in Victoria that are genuinely three-way contests. 0:17:54.100 --> 0:17:57.030 But in the early part of this year, half of 0:17:57.070 --> 0:18:00.220 them will be one by One Nation. But because the 0:18:00.270 --> 0:18:03.609 coalition's increased its primary, it's now winning most of them. 0:18:04.030 --> 0:18:06.750 And so with a primary in the low 30s, they 0:18:06.770 --> 0:18:10.630 could get well over 50 seats. And for your viewers, though, 0:18:10.869 --> 0:18:14.010 not in Victoria, the magic number's 45. 0:18:14.010 --> 0:18:15.710 And that's the new paradigm we're now living in. 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:17.820 And this is why I think the federal numbers are 0:18:17.900 --> 0:18:20.520 also getting very close to that Victorian paradigm. 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:22.540 And so those in Labor at a federal level will 0:18:22.580 --> 0:18:23.240 be very worried. 0:18:25.220 --> 0:18:27.209 We'll see what happens because I think everyone on election 0:18:27.250 --> 0:18:29.729 night will have their own take on this and it'll have, 0:18:30.210 --> 0:18:34.010 I think, national ramifications, particularly for the Canberrans or those 0:18:34.050 --> 0:18:35.570 based out of Canberra. Cos, thank you. Good luck with 0:18:35.590 --> 0:18:38.489 the poll tomorrow. I'll certainly be covering it here. All right, 0:18:38.510 --> 0:18:40.550 let's go to the other news around the country. We'll 0:18:40.570 --> 0:18:44.060 bring in our political contributor, Chris Yeoman. Chris, just this 0:18:44.130 --> 0:18:46.280 point on trust with the Prime Minister, I made the 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:48.160 point at the top of the show, you know, often 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.480 it's the little things that voters can understand. They can 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:55.600 digest what $ 6 million look like. Two or three billion 0:18:55.619 --> 0:18:58.389 or hundreds of millions is a lot of money. But 0:18:58.410 --> 0:19:01.250 when they look at the Prime Minister's mates literally over 0:19:01.270 --> 0:19:04.609 the back fence of his investment property in Marrickville getting 0:19:04.630 --> 0:19:08.590 a $ 6 million grant, not a lot of transparency, some 0:19:08.650 --> 0:19:12.730 dodgy responses from the Prime Minister in the Parliament, and 0:19:12.780 --> 0:19:15.240 that's just another reason on top of all the other 0:19:15.300 --> 0:19:18.880 lies where they don't trust the bloke anymore. 0:19:21.250 --> 0:19:24.030 Yeah, Peter, it's a cumulative thing, and we've seen big 0:19:24.130 --> 0:19:26.790 things and small things, and I'm sure that you're right, 0:19:26.830 --> 0:19:29.340 that the golf club has resonated with people and it 0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:31.500 fits a pattern of behaviour. But I think if I 0:19:31.540 --> 0:19:33.619 could pick out two things that they know that he 0:19:33.660 --> 0:19:35.980 went to the last election saying he wouldn't change, it 0:19:36.020 --> 0:19:38.340 was negative gearing and capital gains tax. And what they've 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:42.090 seen now is their lifestyle has been directly, materially affected 0:19:42.530 --> 0:19:46.050 by the decisions of government for the worse. Now, we've 0:19:46.090 --> 0:19:49.010 seen what happens to governments that do that to people. 0:19:49.030 --> 0:19:51.360 We saw it just recently. in the United States where 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:57.870 people blamed President Trump's war on their lifestyle becoming materially worse. 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:02.030 And I think in the long run, it's that lie 0:20:02.070 --> 0:20:04.830 that's going to weigh most heavily with the government, that 0:20:04.990 --> 0:20:08.720 breach of promise that is doing things in the electorate, 0:20:08.780 --> 0:20:10.619 they're going to feel for a very long time. And 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:15.510 we are a long way from finished with prices rising. 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:18.530 Let's go to energy then. This report today that Chris 0:20:18.550 --> 0:20:24.270 Bowen's got a so-called information integrity unit buried in his 0:20:24.330 --> 0:20:27.750 department and that it's issued a kit to business and 0:20:27.790 --> 0:20:34.170 community groups, basically a propaganda kit to spruik how Australia 0:20:34.230 --> 0:20:37.340 is doing on climate targets and emissions, et cetera, all 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:40.679 ahead of the UN COP summit in Turkey. I mean, 0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:43.340 this is a wellion. I mean, I've never heard of 0:20:43.380 --> 0:20:47.659 a so-called integrity unit basically to tell people what to 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:50.290 say and what to think and to shut down people 0:20:50.330 --> 0:20:52.510 like you, Chris Ullman, who want to put the facts 0:20:52.590 --> 0:20:52.930 out there. 0:20:54.740 --> 0:20:56.540 Yeah, Peter, and the thing that's funniest about it, if 0:20:56.619 --> 0:20:59.260 you weren't laughing, you would be crying, is that the 0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:01.220 one thing that it's not doing is anything that has 0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:04.159 integrity attached to it because all of its numbers are 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:08.629 misleading in some way, shape or form, particularly when it 0:21:08.730 --> 0:21:12.010 says that we're seeing an effect on electricity prices that's 0:21:12.030 --> 0:21:15.550 helping to keep them lower. We're seeing precisely the opposite effect. 0:21:15.970 --> 0:21:18.330 Chris Bowen can keep talking to wholesale prices as long 0:21:18.369 --> 0:21:21.190 as he likes. The only measure that matters to anyone 0:21:21.390 --> 0:21:24.950 is the retail price of electricity. That's gone up 36% 0:21:24.950 --> 0:21:27.820 under Labor. And when they talk always about these giant 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.020 strides they've been making around the world when it comes 0:21:31.040 --> 0:21:34.379 to the amount of electricity being generated, that's 20% of 0:21:34.420 --> 0:21:36.960 the energy system in the world. What we see with 0:21:37.030 --> 0:21:39.330 the world's energy system, we burned more coal, oil and 0:21:39.350 --> 0:21:41.970 gas last year than ever before in a single year 0:21:42.010 --> 0:21:45.950 in human history. and 86% of the world's energy comes 0:21:45.990 --> 0:21:49.389 from coal, oil and gas. So they're making nary a 0:21:49.450 --> 0:21:51.530 dent on it. The only thing that they are having 0:21:51.590 --> 0:21:56.930 victories with is making ever more large piles of boulderdash 0:21:56.970 --> 0:21:58.110 that we have to jump over. 0:22:00.330 --> 0:22:04.350 Also, the business leaders have spoken out about this propaganda unit. 0:22:04.390 --> 0:22:07.670 You've got Twiggy Forrest saying go harder and go faster 0:22:07.710 --> 0:22:11.129 in terms of phasing out fossil fuels. And good on 0:22:11.190 --> 0:22:14.129 Ryan Stokes. He's saying, well, hang on, we've got a 0:22:14.190 --> 0:22:17.170 lot of economic challenges here at home. We've got obviously 0:22:17.190 --> 0:22:20.890 an energy challenge. We've got problems with industry leaving Australia, 0:22:21.310 --> 0:22:26.419 some requiring subsidy because promised power outputs and reliability from 0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:30.280 renewables are not there anymore. I mean, when you've got 0:22:30.460 --> 0:22:33.900 government basically telling business what to say and we know 0:22:33.940 --> 0:22:37.600 that government can punish business if they don't dance to 0:22:37.619 --> 0:22:41.050 the government's tune, This is a huge integrity worry of 0:22:41.090 --> 0:22:41.550 its own. 0:22:43.510 --> 0:22:46.119 Yeah, well, if Twiggy Forrest wants to do something about 0:22:46.490 --> 0:22:49.280 fossil fuel developments and to shut them down, you know 0:22:49.300 --> 0:22:51.460