WEBVTT - How we revealed China’s missile launch before it happened

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, July eighth, twenty twenty six. The Bank of

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<v Speaker 1>Mum and Daddy's closing up shop. Family guarantees have halved

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<v Speaker 1>for first home buyers since the Federal budget in May

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<v Speaker 1>shook up asset tax treatment and buyers fear owing more

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<v Speaker 1>than their dwellings are worth. That's an exclusive life now

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<v Speaker 1>at Viaustralian dot com dot a U. Australia China relations

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<v Speaker 1>are at a significant low after a Chinese submarine launched

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<v Speaker 1>a nuclear capable intercontinental ballistic missile in the South Pacific,

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<v Speaker 1>and Anthony Albanezi accused Beijing of a provocative act that

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<v Speaker 1>undermined regional peace. Today, the journal who broke the story

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<v Speaker 1>before the missile was even fired, Ben Packham, joins us

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<v Speaker 1>from the Solomon Islands. Ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign

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<v Speaker 1>Affairs and Defense correspondent. He's joining me from honi Ara,

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<v Speaker 1>but on Monday Ben was in Fiji when he broke

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<v Speaker 1>an incredible story.

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<v Speaker 2>China's military has conducted a test launch of a ballistic

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<v Speaker 2>missile with a dummy warhead in the South Bazific Ocean.

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<v Speaker 1>Then tell me what you heard about the Chinese military

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<v Speaker 1>and how you broke this ye on.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Claire.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, look, sometime after the signing of the new Ocean

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<v Speaker 4>of Peace alliance between Australia and Fiji, I heard from

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<v Speaker 4>a contact that China had issued warnings to regional governments

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<v Speaker 4>through its embassies that it was going to conduct a

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<v Speaker 4>test of a nuclear capable missile within twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 4>of that warning, which was roughly twelve noon Eastern time

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<v Speaker 4>on Monday. And I thought, holy heck, this is quite

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<v Speaker 4>a big story, and both immediately set to work.

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<v Speaker 3>Trying to find additional sourcing because there was.

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<v Speaker 4>No way that I was going to report on a

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<v Speaker 4>single source a story of that magnitude. So I actually

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<v Speaker 4>pretty quickly managed to get a second and even a

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<v Speaker 4>third source, so countries around the region that received this warning,

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<v Speaker 4>and they were busily kind of consulting amongst themselves, their

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<v Speaker 4>warnings were just sort of filtering through a number of

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<v Speaker 4>countries political systems. And managed to get that additional sourcing

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<v Speaker 4>and was able to write the story for the Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it had a huge impact straight away, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>it went straight to the top of our website, our

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<v Speaker 1>readers started consuming it eagerly. It was interesting to me

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<v Speaker 1>Ben that China had gone to the trouble of alerting

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<v Speaker 1>foreign governments that they were about to do this. Is

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<v Speaker 1>that what you'd normally expect when they're going to do

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<v Speaker 1>something like fire a test missile.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, it's good practice to do so they've got to

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<v Speaker 4>get people out of the way and that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 4>And you know, if you do something like that by surprise,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, people get pretty upset, and indeed the region

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<v Speaker 4>will be and you know Australia and New Zealand, Japan

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<v Speaker 4>and Taiwan have all expressed concerns about this.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's Anthony Albanezi on Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 5>We don't want to see any action that is destabilizing well,

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<v Speaker 5>which undermines the peace security instability of the Pacific and

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<v Speaker 5>the region. And there is no doubt that this is

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<v Speaker 5>a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region.

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<v Speaker 4>But certainly China did provide that early warning. They said

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<v Speaker 4>that it would be within twenty four hours. As it happened,

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<v Speaker 4>I think it was just roughly two hours after those.

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<v Speaker 3>Warnings come through.

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<v Speaker 4>This missile test is not something that can happen overnight,

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<v Speaker 4>so it's quite likely.

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<v Speaker 3>This has been planned for a long time.

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<v Speaker 4>There was a submarine that launched it from somewhere in

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<v Speaker 4>the South China Sea, so look, preparations.

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<v Speaker 3>Were obviously underway. But I do believe and.

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<v Speaker 4>Meaning analysts back that the timing was also unmistakably a

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<v Speaker 4>warning to the region and to Australia and all of

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<v Speaker 4>these Pacific partners that has been signing up to security

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<v Speaker 4>agreements that China is very unhappy and that it is

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<v Speaker 4>great military power and it will not be sort of

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<v Speaker 4>contained its strategic aspirations won't be curtailed by Australia and

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<v Speaker 4>specific partners.

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<v Speaker 1>We're very used to China flexing its muscle in the

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<v Speaker 1>South China Sea. This is the South Pacific ben which

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<v Speaker 1>I think we and Fiji and the Solomons would regard

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<v Speaker 1>as our patch. Does this tell us something different about

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<v Speaker 1>the way China regards the South Pacific.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, China has a big Blue Order Navy. They see

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<v Speaker 4>themselves as a great military power to rival the United States.

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<v Speaker 4>The US is, obviously has been post Second World War,

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<v Speaker 4>the dominant military power, and the Pacific China is increasingly

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<v Speaker 4>challenging US military supremacy in this region, and it's saying

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<v Speaker 4>that it can reach deep into the region, and that

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<v Speaker 4>that's something that the region you really needs to take

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<v Speaker 4>note of.

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<v Speaker 1>Penny Wong said straight away that she regarded this as

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<v Speaker 1>an active destabilization in the region.

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<v Speaker 6>This proposed test is in the context of a rapid

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<v Speaker 6>military built up by China, which is lacking in the

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<v Speaker 6>transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expects.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that right, though, Ben, I mean, we're pretty used

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<v Speaker 1>to the region being a bit of a contest between

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<v Speaker 1>China and Australia. Is this just confirmation of what we

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<v Speaker 1>already actually knew?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's a step above that.

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<v Speaker 4>The last time China did a fight an ICB in

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<v Speaker 4>the Pacific was in twenty twenty four, but before that

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<v Speaker 4>there had not been one since nineteen eighty, so it's

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<v Speaker 4>very rare. And you know, this is a very powerful capability.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a nuclear capable missile. It had a dummy warhead,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's a sort of unmissible advertisement or illustration of

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<v Speaker 4>its military power.

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<v Speaker 1>This was the message from Beijing following Monday's test fire.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, China has responded to concerns about its latest missile

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<v Speaker 2>test by telling countries not to read too much into it.

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<v Speaker 1>So this has all happened while Anthony Albanesi is on

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<v Speaker 1>a tour of the South Pacific, signing a defense pact

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<v Speaker 1>in Fiji and visiting other islands. What is the purpose

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<v Speaker 1>of the visit and how much does this kind of

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<v Speaker 1>derail that or prove its point.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, look, it's been a big Pacific trip for Anthony

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<v Speaker 4>Albanzi and in fact we're just on the second day

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<v Speaker 4>that in suv on Monday, he signed a very significant

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<v Speaker 4>military treaty with Fiji. That is a mutual defense treaty.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's a bona fide alliance which requires the parties

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<v Speaker 4>to act to meet the common danger should either of

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<v Speaker 4>them be attacked.

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<v Speaker 5>These treaties represent one of the most significant endeavors Australia

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<v Speaker 5>has ever undertaken in our history with any country.

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<v Speaker 4>Now this makes Fiji Australia's fourth ally and we are

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<v Speaker 4>Fiji's first military ally, and so it's a really big deal.

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<v Speaker 4>The Prime Minister Anthony Elbanezi, it's his second alliance that

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<v Speaker 4>he's signed in the space of a year.

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<v Speaker 3>The last one was with Pappany Guinea.

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<v Speaker 4>The Pook treaty which comes into effect on Wednesday, when

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<v Speaker 4>he and James Marapei, Prime Minister of Puppeny Guinea, will

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<v Speaker 4>exchange some diplomatic letters.

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<v Speaker 7>The agreement sets out to better integrate the Australian and

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<v Speaker 7>Papua New Guinea defense forces and even allows each to

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<v Speaker 7>recruit troops from the other country.

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<v Speaker 4>But in the meantime, we are in Solomon Islands where

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<v Speaker 4>Anthony Albernizi is attending Independence Day celebrations. Here he's had

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<v Speaker 4>a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Matthew Wahla and they've

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<v Speaker 4>discussed comprehensive bilateral treaty that they want to sign by

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<v Speaker 4>the end of the year, and no doubt they will

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<v Speaker 4>have discussed Pm Wilay's push for a region wide security

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<v Speaker 4>agreement with Australia. Now that's something that is going to

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<v Speaker 4>really upset China, particularly as the suggestion is coming from

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<v Speaker 4>Solomon Islands, which not so long ago was very cozy

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<v Speaker 4>with Beijing. You remember Manassa Saga Varo signed a security

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<v Speaker 4>treaty with Beijing about six years ago and Solomon Islands

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<v Speaker 4>was one of the closest South Pacific island nations to China.

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<v Speaker 4>That's been flipped since Matthew Waalay's coming to power. He

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<v Speaker 4>was very anti China. Simon Islands and China will maintain

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<v Speaker 4>healthy bilateral relations, but he's really looking to Australia to

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<v Speaker 4>provide that security support, in particular policing support. You may

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<v Speaker 4>remember the Chinese police here have been training local police

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<v Speaker 4>but also getting out into the community, and the last

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<v Speaker 4>year at the Pacific Island Forum, I reported that it

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<v Speaker 4>was actually fingerprinting villages and getting them to sign household

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<v Speaker 4>registration cards, all in the name of sort of community policing.

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<v Speaker 4>Now that sort of thing might be fine in China,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's really quite out of the.

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<v Speaker 3>Ordinary in the Pacific, in any democratic country.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, what's Australia's level of influence now? I mean, how

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<v Speaker 1>do we make sure that kind of thing doesn't happen

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<v Speaker 1>anymore in countries where the word ally is very We

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<v Speaker 1>are now allies of these countries. We're offering to come

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<v Speaker 1>and defend them if they get attacked. What's our pool here?

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<v Speaker 4>I would say that Australia has been quite clever in

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<v Speaker 4>the way it has worked through the Pacific Forum, but

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<v Speaker 4>also bilaterally.

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<v Speaker 3>We have very healthy relationships at the moment.

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<v Speaker 4>Possibly the one relationship that is less healthy and more

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<v Speaker 4>conducive to China is care of Us. It's probably China's

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<v Speaker 4>closest friend in the region at the moment.

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<v Speaker 3>Vanihatu.

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<v Speaker 4>We recently signed a very hard one policing and economic

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<v Speaker 4>agreement with Vanihatu, but that was very difficult to get

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<v Speaker 4>and you know, Vanihasa has sort of been on the

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<v Speaker 4>fence in terms of which country to really side within

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<v Speaker 4>this sort of strategic contest, still sort of sitting on

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<v Speaker 4>the fence. It didn't give Australia everything it wanted in

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<v Speaker 4>that security agreement. We wanted a rite of veto over

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<v Speaker 4>foreign investments in its critical infrastructure. We didn't get that,

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<v Speaker 4>but it did pledge that none of its ports, airports

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<v Speaker 4>or anything like that would be militarized and it would

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<v Speaker 4>consult with Australia on key infrastructure investments by other countries.

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<v Speaker 1>Just finally, Ben, what's the price Australia's paying for these

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<v Speaker 1>deals in terms of visa access, working rights, maybe even

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<v Speaker 1>recruitment to our military for people from the Pacific Islands.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a big price.

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<v Speaker 4>It costs a lot of money to do anything in

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<v Speaker 4>the Pacific. The distances of vast the needs are great.

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<v Speaker 4>It will cost billions and billions over time. The recently

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<v Speaker 4>signed Fiji alliance is a billion dollars over ten years.

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<v Speaker 3>Multiply that by well. Pup in New Guinea is a

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<v Speaker 3>huge financial commitment for US.

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<v Speaker 4>We're supporting the NRL partnership and their military and all

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<v Speaker 4>sorts of things.

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<v Speaker 3>So look, you know this is very costly, but it's.

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<v Speaker 4>Very important strategically for Australia's place in the region to

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<v Speaker 4>be this sort of linery partner, particularly primary security partner.

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<v Speaker 1>Ben Packham, I'll let you get back to the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the tour. Thank you very much.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign Affairs and Defense correspondent.

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<v Speaker 1>You can check out his scoops anytime at the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot au