1 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,719 Michael Thompson: Today on Fear and Greed. The local share market is 2 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:11,080 Michael Thompson: set to tumble today on the back of carnage in 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:15,360 Michael Thompson: global financial markets. Prime Minister Anthony Ibanezy promises two point 4 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,720 Michael Thompson: five billion dollars for battery storage and how the five 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:23,960 Michael Thompson: hundred richest people lost nine hundred billion dollars in two days. Plus, 6 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,880 Michael Thompson: the local auction market shows some resilience and the Reserve 7 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:30,440 Michael Thompson: Bank shows some confidence in households. Welcome to Fear and Greed, 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,800 Michael Thompson: daily business news for people who make their own decisions. 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,720 Michael Thompson: It is Monday, the seventh of April twenty twenty five. 10 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,280 Michael Thompson: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer. 11 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,000 Sean Aylmer.: Good morning, Michael. 12 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,080 Michael Thompson: Sean, we start this morning with a bit of a 13 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:47,040 Michael Thompson: special announcement. The Fear and Greed newsletter is going daily. 14 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,720 Michael Thompson: It was previously coming out once a week, every Wednesday. 15 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,479 Michael Thompson: Now it is every single weekday at six am. 16 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,480 Sean Aylmer.: I don't think you've got enough vim and vigor in 17 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,280 Sean Aylmer.: your voice this morning, Michael, because it's such an exciting 18 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,680 Sean Aylmer.: day for it's a daily newsletter. With me talking about 19 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,200 Sean Aylmer.: it for about eighteen months, we've decided to bite the 20 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:04,880 Sean Aylmer.: bullet and do it every day. You get the top 21 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,520 Sean Aylmer.: stories you need to know about. There's an opinion piece 22 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,520 Sean Aylmer.: in there. There's kind of some color, shall we say 23 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:12,720 Sean Aylmer.: a bit more. It might be the interview of the day. 24 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:16,840 Sean Aylmer.: It might be our favorite numbers of the day or 25 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,720 Sean Aylmer.: free sign up at fearangreed dot com dot au. Well 26 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:21,880 Sean Aylmer.: Worth at Michael. 27 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,080 Michael Thompson: That was some good enthusiasm, Sean, I'm sorry enthusiastic. 28 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:26,839 Sean Aylmer.: I'm excited about the newsletter. 29 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,480 Michael Thompson: Fearangreed dot com dot au. Pop your email address in 30 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,119 Michael Thompson: and you will be getting it every day. I'll also 31 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:33,640 Michael Thompson: put a link in today's show notes so that you 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,640 Michael Thompson: can find it nice and easily. Now on with the 33 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,120 Michael Thompson: news shown the main story this morning, Global financial markets 34 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,280 Michael Thompson: are in turmoil, with the ASX set to fall sharply 35 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,280 Michael Thompson: this morning. Futures markets are suggesting more than four percent. 36 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,720 Michael Thompson: This is on the back of US tariff's, a retaliatory 37 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:55,040 Michael Thompson: impost from China and really fears of a global recession. 38 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,920 Sean Aylmer.: Indeed, tech stocks on Wall Street are now officially in 39 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,960 Sean Aylmer.: bear territory after the NASDOT one hundred dropped six percent 40 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,920 Sean Aylmer.: over the weekend. It's down more than twenty percent from 41 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,920 Sean Aylmer.: its peak. The broader based SMP five hundred was also 42 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,760 Sean Aylmer.: down six percent, meaning since the Trump tariffs were announced, 43 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,120 Sean Aylmer.: trillions of dollars literally trillions of dollars have been lost. 44 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:18,000 Sean Aylmer.: The most recent sell off was in response to Beijing 45 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:22,320 Sean Aylmer.: announcing additional thirty four percent tariffs on goods from the 46 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,800 Sean Aylmer.: United States, the same rate imposed by the White House 47 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,040 Sean Aylmer.: last week. Futures trading on the ASX two hundred suggests 48 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,080 Sean Aylmer.: our market will drop four point three percent at least 49 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,600 Sean Aylmer.: on opening. That's worth about one hundred and fifteen billion dollars. 50 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:40,200 Sean Aylmer.: It would take it to its lowest level since January 51 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,240 Sean Aylmer.: last year. Now, it fell two and a half percent 52 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,720 Sean Aylmer.: on Friday. It's already down about ten percent from its 53 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,520 Sean Aylmer.: peak six weeks ago. Investment banks are now forecasting that 54 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,600 Sean Aylmer.: the US will fall into recession this year, and the 55 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,119 Sean Aylmer.: Federal Reserve chair Jerome and Pale, over the weekend said 56 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,079 Sean Aylmer.: the tariff unveiled last week, which were broad ranging from 57 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,680 Sean Aylmer.: ten percent to fifty percent budget that expected. That is 58 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,600 Sean Aylmer.: the big fear at the moment, a US recession, which 59 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,519 Sean Aylmer.: could lead to a global recession. 60 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:12,840 Michael Thompson: Some of those numbers are really staggering. That's equities, Sean, 61 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,160 Michael Thompson: What about the Aussie dollar? What about the outlook for 62 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:16,200 Michael Thompson: interest rates as well? 63 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,840 Sean Aylmer.: Some traders now think the Aussie dollar could fall below 64 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,519 Sean Aylmer.: sixty US cents, and it's just above that level currently, 65 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,040 Sean Aylmer.: which is a five year low, so it's about sixty 66 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,320 Sean Aylmer.: point four, So it probably will dip below that level. 67 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:30,720 Sean Aylmer.: A trade war and US recession will likely push the 68 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,720 Sean Aylmer.: globaler come into recession. That cuts demand for commodities, and 69 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,280 Sean Aylmer.: the Ausie dollar depends heavily on demand for commodities. The 70 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:42,320 Sean Aylmer.: Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which is a gauge comprising twenty 71 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,600 Sean Aylmer.: two raw materials, dropped seven percent in the final two 72 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,480 Sean Aylmer.: sessions last week. That's its biggest two day loss since 73 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:54,800 Sean Aylmer.: September twenty eleven. We are talking about a big, big 74 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,920 Sean Aylmer.: sell off at the moment. If there is a silver lining, 75 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:03,120 Sean Aylmer.: you'll find that in my favorite market, bond markets. We 76 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:04,320 Sean Aylmer.: have bond markets. 77 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,840 Michael Thompson: Oh, I actually loved once again the enthusiasm that you 78 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,400 Michael Thompson: bring today, Sean and you put it into bond markets. 79 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,120 Sean Aylmer.: That's right. I mean, they're basically the group of investors 80 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,200 Sean Aylmer.: who spend all their lives thinking about interest rates, what's 81 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:19,960 Sean Aylmer.: going to happen. They're now pricing in four rate cuts, Michael, 82 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,080 Sean Aylmer.: four rate cuts over the next year. In Australia, starting 83 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,320 Sean Aylmer.: in May as a reserve Bank tries to reinvigorate growth 84 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,160 Sean Aylmer.: between now and that board meeting in May, I think 85 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,359 Sean Aylmer.: it's a twentieth of May from memory, we have a 86 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:36,960 Sean Aylmer.: federal election and the all important March quarterly inflation numbers. Now, ain' 87 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,120 Sean Aylmer.: z economists are even more aggressive. They're calling for three 88 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,800 Sean Aylmer.: success I can't say that word, Michael, calling for three 89 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:49,440 Sean Aylmer.: successive rate cuts starting in May and finishing in August. 90 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,480 Sean Aylmer.: You don't want rate cuts because the concern is that 91 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,719 Sean Aylmer.: the global economy and the local economy is tumbling too much. 92 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,920 Sean Aylmer.: But it is kind of silver lining for mortgage holders. 93 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:06,200 Michael Thompson: Yeah, indeed, But just to kind of illustrate Sean, how 94 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,320 Michael Thompson: big the impact of this is. This is going to 95 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,279 Michael Thompson: affect superannuation funds as well, which means that it's going 96 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:13,640 Michael Thompson: to affect pretty much all of us. 97 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,599 Sean Aylmer.: Pretty much all of us when you wake up. If 98 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,719 Sean Aylmer.: you wake up this morning and you check your super 99 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:19,480 Sean Aylmer.: fund and you knew what it was a week ago, 100 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:23,279 Sean Aylmer.: you won't be happy. A lot of the big super 101 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:27,200 Sean Aylmer.: funds rode the magnificent seven tech boom on the way up. 102 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,080 Sean Aylmer.: They're going to be suffering a few bruises today. There 103 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,679 Sean Aylmer.: are also other reasons for bruises among the super funds, 104 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,400 Sean Aylmer.: including a cyber attack on a bunch of those groups. 105 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,760 Sean Aylmer.: More of that shortly. Also very bad timing for plenty 106 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,960 Sean Aylmer.: of baby boomers whom we're retiring at the moment. Superannoation 107 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:46,600 Sean Aylmer.: is a long term thing, but you don't actually want 108 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,560 Sean Aylmer.: to be accessing your superannuation at a time when the 109 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:54,320 Sean Aylmer.: markets has tumbled too much. So plenty to be concerned about. 110 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,040 Michael Thompson: Sean our interview coming up today. We've got a couple 111 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,280 Michael Thompson: of pieces coming up after the show, Got Fear and 112 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,840 Michael Thompson: Greed The week Ahead with our resident economist Stephen Coculis, 113 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,320 Michael Thompson: who has great insight into all of this. But if 114 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,920 Michael Thompson: you want to get your head around this, around the 115 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,839 Michael Thompson: politics of it, around the impact on investors and the 116 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,880 Michael Thompson: impact on global markets more broadly, the interview today with 117 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:21,159 Michael Thompson: AMP chief economist Shane Oliver. You do not miss it. 118 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,240 Sean Aylmer.: Yes, I don't think I've ever seen Shane flummoxed. I 119 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:29,760 Sean Aylmer.: think that's fair to say. Great talker, and I wouldn't 120 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,359 Sean Aylmer.: say he's flammoxed, but he's kind of halfway there about 121 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:37,160 Sean Aylmer.: what's going on at the moment, and he tries to 122 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,880 Sean Aylmer.: give a rationale for it, but I think even he 123 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,320 Sean Aylmer.: is a lost for words about what's going on. And 124 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,080 Sean Aylmer.: it is a great chat because he really goes through 125 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,680 Sean Aylmer.: what it all means for the economy but also for investors. 126 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,040 Michael Thompson: Yeah, and he is of course as well the head 127 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,720 Michael Thompson: of investment strategy for AMP, so he's just he is 128 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,440 Michael Thompson: across every aspect of it. So stick around for that one. 129 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,720 Michael Thompson: It's coming up later. Sean one more before we take 130 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,039 Michael Thompson: a break. Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi says a re elected 131 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:08,080 Michael Thompson: ALP government will spend two point three billion dollars to 132 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,200 Michael Thompson: provide thirty percent rebates on household battery systems from July 133 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:12,800 Michael Thompson: this year. 134 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,360 Sean Aylmer.: Housing and batteries are one of the focal points of 135 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,080 Sean Aylmer.: this campaign, with the Opposition expected to announce a some 136 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:20,280 Sean Aylmer.: well I know a similar program, but certainly a battery 137 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,960 Sean Aylmer.: program before the three May poll. For his part, Opposition 138 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,760 Sean Aylmer.: leader Peter Dutton yesterday was campaigning in Tasmania and Melbourne. 139 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:31,520 Sean Aylmer.: He said he would cap international student arrivals, easing housing crisis. 140 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:36,800 Sean Aylmer.: About one in three Australian households have installed rooftop solar systems, 141 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,200 Sean Aylmer.: but only about one in forty have a battery system 142 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,400 Sean Aylmer.: and that's pretty much, because it's really expensive to install 143 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,400 Sean Aylmer.: a battery system. Now the government's plan on an average 144 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,200 Sean Aylmer.: house will say about four thousand dollars purchasing a battery. 145 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:52,600 Sean Aylmer.: The problem with not having a battery, of course, is 146 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:57,280 Sean Aylmer.: that people when they require energy, particularly the evening hours, 147 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,240 Sean Aylmer.: they're not getting it from solo because there's no sun. 148 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:01,720 Sean Aylmer.: They don't have a battery store it, so they're typically 149 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,760 Sean Aylmer.: jumping into the grid where energy prices are much higher. 150 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:07,360 Sean Aylmer.: So the goal is to overcome that. 151 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,120 Michael Thompson: All right, massive day today, Sean will be back in 152 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:18,440 Michael Thompson: a moment with the rest of the day's business news. 153 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:22,640 Sean Aylmer.: Sean. 154 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:26,240 Michael Thompson: There might be carnage on global financial markets, but that 155 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:28,920 Michael Thompson: hasn't yet filtered through to the local housing market, with 156 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:33,040 Michael Thompson: the preliminary clearance rate for auctions over the weekend rising 157 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,800 Michael Thompson: to almost seventy one percent, the highest level in six weeks, 158 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,520 Michael Thompson: which almost feels kind of counterintuitive. You would expect, with 159 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,000 Michael Thompson: so much confusion and uncertainty and concern out there that 160 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,800 Michael Thompson: it would be playing at immediately in the housing market. 161 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:47,400 Sean Aylmer.: You would think. So now there were more than twenty 162 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,360 Sean Aylmer.: five hundred auctions the first time the preliminary clearance rate. 163 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:55,000 Sean Aylmer.: I said that word. Michael on the weekend. Well, I 164 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:59,160 Sean Aylmer.: won't name her as a friend, and she said, well, 165 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,600 Sean Aylmer.: I was going to say, she said, you can say 166 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,600 Sean Aylmer.: the word preliminary, and she didn't actually say that. She said, 167 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,880 Sean Aylmer.: you always get stuck on that word. And I blame 168 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,280 Sean Aylmer.: you for that, Michael, for pointing out that it is 169 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,520 Sean Aylmer.: the hardest word in the English language for me to say. 170 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,440 Michael Thompson: And the worst part is that, now that everyone pays 171 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,360 Michael Thompson: attention to it, we might wait with baited breath for 172 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,680 Michael Thompson: years to say it. And so far you're actually going 173 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:22,319 Michael Thompson: pretty well. 174 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:26,440 Sean Aylmer.: Well. It was the first time since mid February that 175 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:31,560 Sean Aylmer.: the preliminary clearance rate was above seventy percent. Perfect most 176 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,680 Sean Aylmer.: cities recorded a rise. Melbourne came in at seventy three percent, 177 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,240 Sean Aylmer.: Sidney at sixty nine percent, Adelaide Mid led the mid 178 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:43,160 Sean Aylmer.: sized capitals with a preliminary clearance rate of eighty eight percent, 179 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,200 Sean Aylmer.: head Risbone at just under sixty percent. 180 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,920 Michael Thompson: Yeah, now, n you' just showing off. Now It's not likely, Sean, 181 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,160 Michael Thompson: but the Reserve Bank has warned that a sustained downturn. 182 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,640 Michael Thompson: So sustained downturn in the Australian dollar could spark a 183 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,080 Michael Thompson: crisis for the country's super annuation sector risking four point 184 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,719 Michael Thompson: two trillion dollars in savings. 185 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,320 Sean Aylmer.: So this is all related to our earliest story. The 186 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,839 Sean Aylmer.: Central Bank, in its semi annual review of Financial Stability says, 187 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,640 Sean Aylmer.: if there is a shock in financial markets that triggers 188 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,600 Sean Aylmer.: funds to cover margin calls and currency hedges, then things 189 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,960 Sean Aylmer.: could get rough. The Reserve Bank says it's a situation 190 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:25,920 Sean Aylmer.: that is extreme but plausible. It comes as regulators wary 191 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,960 Sean Aylmer.: that an international shock could hit super savings, particularly since 192 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,960 Sean Aylmer.: an increasing amount of money is being invested overseas. So 193 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:35,560 Sean Aylmer.: I mean, this is all about the sell off on 194 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,000 Sean Aylmer.: Wall Street. If it is sustained, what does that mean. 195 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,199 Sean Aylmer.: Nearly half of the assets held by the largest super 196 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,880 Sean Aylmer.: funds are overseas, according to Reserve Bank, it you know 197 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,000 Sean Aylmer.: I quote, which are protected against losses related to currency 198 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:53,840 Sean Aylmer.: movements with foreign exchange hedges. The problem is if they're 199 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,720 Sean Aylmer.: out of the money and they have to redo those hedges, 200 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,640 Sean Aylmer.: then it could cost super funes and we as individuals 201 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:02,480 Sean Aylmer.: a lot of money. 202 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,600 Michael Thompson: I think it's interesting that they're talking about a situation 203 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:09,120 Michael Thompson: that is extreme but plausible, because there's clearly on a 204 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,800 Michael Thompson: lot of pressure on bodies like the Reserve Bank to 205 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,960 Michael Thompson: model these these things that sure might not happen the 206 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,720 Michael Thompson: way that they are speculating or modeling, but the pandemic, 207 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:24,320 Michael Thompson: for instance, has shown that these very can happen. Yeah, 208 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,240 Michael Thompson: and they need to be prepared. And it just staying 209 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:31,840 Michael Thompson: with a Reserve Bank. It's systems Stability report. I like that, 210 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:36,200 Michael Thompson: is that your nemesis. No, I mean today obviously is, 211 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,640 Michael Thompson: but it's not yeah today, it will be anyway. It's 212 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:43,720 Michael Thompson: system Stability report says budget pressures have eased for households 213 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,800 Michael Thompson: and the share of households that are behind on mortgage 214 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,160 Michael Thompson: payments has stabilized at pre pandemic levels. 215 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,800 Sean Aylmer.: It's good news. The bank says. Cash flow pressures will 216 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,200 Sean Aylmer.: remain widespread in the short term, but should ease further 217 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,479 Sean Aylmer.: in coming months. But the Central Bank's worried that expectations 218 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,360 Sean Aylmer.: of lower interest rates could cause households to take on 219 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:06,000 Sean Aylmer.: too much debt. Already, figures from the Bureau Statistics suggest 220 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,440 Sean Aylmer.: household spending is holding up. Data on Friday shows five 221 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,320 Sean Aylmer.: successive months of higher household spending. In terms of business, 222 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,080 Sean Aylmer.: the Reserve Bank says most stillmaking profits despite sower economic 223 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,480 Sean Aylmer.: growth and higher costs. The good news is that signs 224 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,960 Sean Aylmer.: of business financial stress have stabilized, cash flow pressures are 225 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:27,080 Sean Aylmer.: expected to ease, and on insolvencies the Reserve Bank says 226 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:31,520 Sean Aylmer.: they've risen but remain slightly below the pre pandemic level 227 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,239 Sean Aylmer.: trend impose little threat to stability. 228 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,240 Michael Thompson: Now you mentioned this next one earlier Sean an unknown 229 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,480 Michael Thompson: number of superannuation fund members have lost thousands of dollars 230 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,360 Michael Thompson: of their retirement savings. It might appears to be a 231 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,640 Michael Thompson: coordinated cyber attack on Australia's super sector. 232 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:52,200 Sean Aylmer.: The fin Review is reporting that major industry funds Australian 233 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,760 Sean Aylmer.: Retirement Trust, Australian Super Rest and host Plus were all breached. Insignia, 234 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,600 Sean Aylmer.: the owner of the one hundred and eighty year old 235 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:02,600 Sean Aylmer.: MLC brand and the largest retail superinnuation fund, also suffered 236 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:06,280 Sean Aylmer.: a cyber attack. Ossie Super said six hundred passwords had 237 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:09,400 Sean Aylmer.: been breached, while Insignia said one hundred of its members 238 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,160 Sean Aylmer.: accounts had been tampered with. Rest said about eight thousand 239 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,160 Sean Aylmer.: of its accounts were affected. The amount stolen is unknown, 240 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,800 Sean Aylmer.: though at least a handful of members of OSSI Super 241 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:23,080 Sean Aylmer.: lost around one hundred thousand dollars in total, and the 242 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:24,760 Sean Aylmer.: funds working on recovery efforts. 243 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:29,200 Michael Thompson: Well, these are significant sum so sure ah. Turning to 244 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:34,000 Michael Thompson: international news, speaking of significant sums, sean, the world's five 245 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:39,440 Michael Thompson: hundred richest people suffered the biggest two day loss ever 246 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:44,120 Michael Thompson: on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Has fallout from President Trump's 247 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:48,079 Michael Thompson: tariff announcement just decimated markets across the globe. 248 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,720 Sean Aylmer.: Billionaires on the Wealth list lost a collective five hundred 249 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:56,640 Sean Aylmer.: and thirty six billion US dollars that's about nine hundred 250 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:02,720 Sean Aylmer.: billion Ossie dollars in just two day. Almost ninety percent 251 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,880 Sean Aylmer.: of the billionaires tracked by the Wealth Index sord their 252 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:08,480 Sean Aylmer.: fortune's decline. The average was about three and a half percent. 253 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,400 Sean Aylmer.: No one lost more money of the two day stretch 254 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,840 Sean Aylmer.: than Tesla's Elon Musk, with the ev makers share price 255 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:18,040 Sean Aylmer.: falling ten percent on Friday US time, cutting about thirty 256 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,920 Sean Aylmer.: one billion dollars from Musk's wealth. He's yearly lost loss 257 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:26,760 Sean Aylmer.: thus far is one hundred and thirty billion dollars. Incredible. 258 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,120 Sean Aylmer.: Meta Platforms founder Mark Zuckerberg followed with a twenty seven 259 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,120 Sean Aylmer.: billion dollar US that is loss as a social media 260 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,240 Sean Aylmer.: company dropped almost fourteen percent over that Thursday and Friday 261 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:40,480 Sean Aylmer.: training period. Flipside Nike found a phil Knight. He was 262 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:42,800 Sean Aylmer.: one of the few winners. So the shoe company stock 263 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,120 Sean Aylmer.: got hammered on Thursday, or prior to Thursday in faith 264 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,000 Sean Aylmer.: when the tariff announcement was made. That was Thursday US time. 265 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,760 Sean Aylmer.: It gained three percent over the weekend, though after Donald 266 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,560 Sean Aylmer.: Trump said he'd had a very productive call with the 267 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:03,160 Sean Aylmer.: Vietnamese leader over possibly eliminating a forty six percent tariff. 268 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,840 Sean Aylmer.: Much of Nike's manufacturing he's done in Vietnam. It just 269 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:08,800 Sean Aylmer.: shows how fickle the market is at the moment. 270 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,400 Michael Thompson: Oh, absolutely, Now you mentioned Elon Musk there Sean and 271 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,600 Michael Thompson: rumors suggests that he is, I suppose on the nose, 272 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,400 Michael Thompson: you might say, with Donald Trump. 273 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,120 Sean Aylmer.: Last week Politico, when ABC in the US reported that 274 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,200 Sean Aylmer.: Trump had told cabinet members that Musk was on the 275 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,560 Sean Aylmer.: way out. Over the weekend, Musk came out and said 276 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,320 Sean Aylmer.: that the European Union and USA should move toway free 277 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:35,880 Sean Aylmer.: trade tariff free zone, directly contradicting Donald Trump. Now, that's 278 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,360 Sean Aylmer.: not normally a good thing if you want to stay 279 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,520 Sean Aylmer.: friends with the president, and it just adds to the 280 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:48,760 Sean Aylmer.: speculation that Elon Musk's days of glory might just be 281 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,880 Sean Aylmer.: fading somewhat, although I want his child to be in 282 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,720 Sean Aylmer.: the White House once again telling Donald Trump? What was 283 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:57,280 Sean Aylmer.: he saying? 284 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:00,200 Michael Thompson: Are he quiet or something? Was it? 285 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:00,720 Sean Aylmer.: Yeah? 286 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:05,320 Michael Thompson: Yeah, when And there's been some remarkable scenes have it 287 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,520 Michael Thompson: there from the Musk Trump relationship. But that is not 288 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,160 Michael Thompson: a small thing to disagree over. 289 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,440 Sean Aylmer.: Is that is to come out so publicly on it? 290 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,160 Michael Thompson: Oh yeah, yeah, it does feel like there could be 291 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:21,520 Michael Thompson: some cracks appearing in the relationship, Sean. Up next is 292 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,400 Michael Thompson: Fear and Greed The Week Ahead with Stephen Colcolas and 293 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:29,200 Michael Thompson: then the Daily Interview doctor Shane Oliver from AMP. Must 294 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,080 Michael Thompson: listen to that one just to help get your head 295 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:32,680 Michael Thompson: around everything that is going on at the moment. 296 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:34,880 Sean Aylmer.: And also, oh no, I thought you were going to 297 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:38,680 Sean Aylmer.: forget it. And once you're finished listening to that, jump 298 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,720 Sean Aylmer.: on Fearangreed dot com dot au and sign up for 299 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,480 Sean Aylmer.: our newsletter comes out what sort of five point thirty 300 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,160 Sean Aylmer.: six o'clock after the show we put it out, so 301 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,880 Sean Aylmer.: probably out by six o'clock every morning, I would say, 302 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,880 Sean Aylmer.: And kind of the main stuff you need to know 303 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,000 Sean Aylmer.: as you're going into work to look smart. 304 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,640 Michael Thompson: Your enthusiasm for this is unbridled, but. 305 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,120 Sean Aylmer.: I'm now I'm a text guy from Waybag. You know, 306 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,000 Sean Aylmer.: this is audio business. This is your world. I'm new 307 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,320 Sean Aylmer.: do it. You're the one that saves me in the 308 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,679 Sean Aylmer.: in the text world. I kind of have confidence in 309 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:11,119 Sean Aylmer.: that one. 310 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,320 Michael Thompson: It's actually a good point. The fact is you sign 311 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,399 Michael Thompson: up for this newsletter and you are getting a column 312 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,960 Michael Thompson: written every day by a business journalist who has run 313 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,159 Michael Thompson: newspapers in this country, and you are getting it for 314 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,840 Michael Thompson: free every day in your in your inbox. So it 315 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,919 Michael Thompson: is a no brainer. Fearangreed dot com dot au sign up. 316 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,400 Michael Thompson: I'll put a link in the show notes as well. 317 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:30,040 Michael Thompson: Thank you, Sean. 318 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:30,679 Sean Aylmer.: Thanks Michael. 319 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,800 Michael Thompson: It's Monday, the seventh of April twenty twenty five. Make 320 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,119 Michael Thompson: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online 321 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:40,040 Michael Thompson: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. 322 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:44,280 Michael Thompson: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.