Speaker 1: From the Sky New Center. This is Paul Murray Live,
Speaker 1: Tom Jones. Yes, Cliff Richard, No, you can have that.
Speaker 1: You can have that, Caleb. Thank you very much to
Speaker 1: every who with the Sunday showdown, Come on into the
Speaker 1: man Cave. What a show I got for you tonight.
Speaker 1: Back to the data, back to the detail. There is
Speaker 1: a couple of polls that are out tonight. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about him before they're evening the newspapers tomorrow. Who's up,
Speaker 1: who's down, Who's closer, who's further away to winning the election,
Speaker 1: which of course will be called after the federal budget
Speaker 1: mail in March twenty fifth. To see that Allen She
Speaker 1: along with the rest of the Labor Party sends Victoria
Speaker 1: deep into the ditch, but they end up getting a
Speaker 1: GST handout paid for by you. And the fastest person
Speaker 1: to run two hundred meters this year is an Ossie
Speaker 1: ingers crossed gold gold goal. First, some wild things around
Speaker 1: that are nothing to do with political news, but instead
Speaker 1: a little bit of the weather. Last week the focus
Speaker 1: was Queensland, while the rest of the country is trying
Speaker 1: to catch up. There's been a bushfire on the outskirts
Speaker 1: of Melbourne. He's the latest we have about that today.
Speaker 2: There were significant threats to the house or households and
Speaker 2: the assets in the area. To the best of my
Speaker 2: knowledge at this stage, we have lost one house. I
Speaker 2: believe it shed in a cubby house and that's all.
Speaker 2: And I think, considering the circumstances and the side of
Speaker 2: the fire, very lucky that that's all.
Speaker 1: And Maya was hot in Sydney today. The temperatures were
Speaker 1: apparently the hottest since records have been kept by the
Speaker 1: Bureau of Meteorology. So the best part of what one
Speaker 1: hundred and something years, one hundred and fifty years the
Speaker 1: hottest night that Sydney has sweltered through in March, not
Speaker 1: of all time, but it's you know how it works.
Speaker 1: Sometimes the hottest bits of summer are at the height
Speaker 1: of summer. Sometimes the super hot weather is slightly after summer,
Speaker 1: but you know, que the usual anyway, what I love
Speaker 1: about a super hot day, same as a super cold day,
Speaker 1: soon as a super wet day or a super windy day.
Speaker 1: It's up to the news to go and find people
Speaker 1: telling us how damn hot it was in Sydney today.
Speaker 3: Spat chair from the yes today and then today it's
Speaker 3: just I had to take the kid somewhere.
Speaker 1: A lot of the bucket hats have been very popular.
Speaker 4: We've run out of some of the great hats, lots
Speaker 4: of sunscreen, the water bottles are all sold out.
Speaker 1: According to the forecast, the next couple of hours it
Speaker 1: will start to fall off. In fact, it could be
Speaker 1: some twelve degrees cooler by the time you wake up tomorrow,
Speaker 1: as opposed to what it is right now, as it
Speaker 1: is hovering around thirty in many parts of Sydney. Why
Speaker 1: so warm and why now? Well, I mates it. Sky
Speaker 1: News Weather have the answer.
Speaker 3: The mercury is set to plummet with strong winds, showers,
Speaker 3: alpine snow and thunderstorms today as a strong cold front
Speaker 3: crosses the southeast. However, this is making for a scorcher
Speaker 3: across New South Wales.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to the politics though, of the
Speaker 1: Prime Minister and Peter Dutton, as they fight for your
Speaker 1: voters a vote that. Of course, we were expecting we'd
Speaker 1: be at the end of the first big of the
Speaker 1: election campaign, but the extropical cyclone blew all of that away,
Speaker 1: which means we are now having to stead on the
Speaker 1: barrel of a too little, too late federal budget and
Speaker 1: then a May election. Now the Prime Minister thinks that
Speaker 1: he has been able to buy his way to your affections,
Speaker 1: because we all know when it comes to the decisions
Speaker 1: of the past three years, every poll who's shown us
Speaker 1: for more than eighteen months. In fact, since the end
Speaker 1: of the Voice when he turned sixty forty yes into
Speaker 1: sixty forty zero, Australians have not been listening. So the
Speaker 1: Prime Minister is trying to get your attention with your money.
Speaker 5: A seven point two billion dollar announcement today, five million
Speaker 5: dollars ten million dollars, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollar,
Speaker 5: three hundred and fifty million dollar, two billion dollars, thirty
Speaker 5: seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar,
Speaker 5: two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar,
Speaker 5: four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars.
Speaker 1: See, it's just endless, literally every single day, and we
Speaker 1: are what about halfway through March, not even at the
Speaker 1: end of the third month. And that is just the
Speaker 1: daily toll on the billions and billions and billions. Well,
Speaker 1: despite the fact that you sent to Alan is running
Speaker 1: a very unpopular government. She of course was around the
Speaker 1: table when Victoria was spending money like well, even drunken
Speaker 1: sailors would have been embarrassed by how much money was
Speaker 1: going around and in actual fact, so unpopular is you
Speaker 1: cent to Allen that I noticed to be a fact
Speaker 1: that Anthony Albernezi has come in and out of Melbourne,
Speaker 1: slid in and out of Melbourne without even telling the premier.
Speaker 1: Is there a littlone stopping over for a lunch or
Speaker 1: doing a selfie by the barbecue like you did with
Speaker 1: the dictator Dan. They are not going to be seen
Speaker 1: apparently arm in arm at the upcoming election. Why because
Speaker 1: Victoria is one of the worst performing states at the
Speaker 1: moment in terms of the primary vote and the latest
Speaker 1: polls in and around this upcoming election now they are
Speaker 1: down eight points since the last election. They were there
Speaker 1: in the very early thirties, they're now down to the
Speaker 1: mid twenties. Victoria the worst states where the most number
Speaker 1: of seats are So this is a problem when not
Speaker 1: even you can crack a quarter of the vote ever
Speaker 1: so slightly to the technical quarter in Queensland, and as
Speaker 1: we saw out of Western Australia, labor's probably doing better
Speaker 1: in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. I don't know
Speaker 1: what's happening in the northern territory, but we will all
Speaker 1: find out together in just a few weeks time. But
Speaker 1: desperately trying to find a way not to embrace the
Speaker 1: bad Victorian government who has done disgraceful things to its economy,
Speaker 1: blown every version of the credit card and now they
Speaker 1: are onto the payday lender as a way of being
Speaker 1: able to keep the lights on in Victoria. Well, now
Speaker 1: the entire pot of GST money has been rearranged. Money
Speaker 1: will now be going to Victoria. Victoria will actually be
Speaker 1: getting more money, or a greater share of GST the
Speaker 1: tax of ten percent on everything paid, of course, from
Speaker 1: the southern bit of Tasmania, the top of Queensland, everywhere
Speaker 1: in Wa and everywhere else in between. Victoria has emerged
Speaker 1: as the biggest winner of this next year's GST carve out,
Speaker 1: of course, nothing to do with twenty four percent in
Speaker 1: the opinion polls that this was all scientific. Apparently they're
Speaker 1: going to get an extra three point seven b four
Speaker 1: billion dollars in revenue. The Comonwealth Grants Commission made the
Speaker 1: decision on Friday, it shows the Victoria is expected to
Speaker 1: get twenty six point one billion dollars in GST of
Speaker 1: the total ninety five billion dollars that the tax creates.
Speaker 1: By the way, that is less money than company tax
Speaker 1: and less money than personal income tax. So just in
Speaker 1: case you think the biggest source of governant revenue is
Speaker 1: the GST, no it's not. It's you going to work,
Speaker 1: so good luck paying tax until Wednesday. The huge increase
Speaker 1: of the state coffers is up from twenty two and
Speaker 1: a half billion in twenty four to twenty five, rolling
Speaker 1: back to eighteen and a bit billion dollars in twenty
Speaker 1: three to twenty four. Victoria's got twenty five point seven
Speaker 1: percent of the nation's population, but we'll get twenty seven
Speaker 1: and a half percent of the GST. This means when
Speaker 1: you actually put some numbers together and I'm saving the
Speaker 1: GST announcement because that comes from a different pot of money.
Speaker 1: The total amount of promises to buy your vote from
Speaker 1: a prime minister who is in a world of trouble,
Speaker 1: no matter how many times you hear about the protection
Speaker 1: racket coming from his mates in the media that he
Speaker 1: likes to metaphorically tuck into bed each and every night,
Speaker 1: almost forty four zero b four billion dollars. And as
Speaker 1: you know, one of the reasons why the government has
Speaker 1: been able to post surpluses for the past couple of
Speaker 1: years and probably again in a couple of weeks time,
Speaker 1: is because the huge receipts when it comes to mining,
Speaker 1: huge increases when it comes to the taxes on things
Speaker 1: like petrol and cigarettes and alcohol, huge increases in the
Speaker 1: amount of money that is coming in when it comes
Speaker 1: to personal income tax. And largely all of this extra
Speaker 1: money has resulted in an extra some hundred and four
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars coming to the federal government. But as
Speaker 1: they write in the Financial Review, much of it has
Speaker 1: been waste. It's been wasted. Put simply, as Chris Richardson,
Speaker 1: who we hope to talk to between now and the
Speaker 1: budget by the way, he's, of course the guy who
Speaker 1: has a look at the budget. He's able to work
Speaker 1: out what is the on budget money, the off budget money,
Speaker 1: the money they promised to save, and the money that
Speaker 1: they are overspending. They were kissed on the proverbial. Given
Speaker 1: a blank check four hundred billion dollars, what are they
Speaker 1: spending on? Generally, welfare, guaranteed pay rises for public servants,
Speaker 1: three pay rises for politicians. How did your life get
Speaker 1: better result of that four hundred billion dollars. Oh and
Speaker 1: by the way, one of the ways they got that
Speaker 1: four hundred billion dollars is they took fifteen hundred dollars
Speaker 1: off ten million taxpayers. Remember this, whatever they have promised,
Speaker 1: whatever they promised to deliver for ten million workers, fifteen
Speaker 1: hundred dollars worse off after one of their first budgets,
Speaker 1: and you have never got even close to that number. Again,
Speaker 1: more polls. As we are talking tonight about state of
Speaker 1: the race. But let's have a look about state of
Speaker 1: the race, which I'm very excited. You know how I
Speaker 1: get into the detail and the granula. This is a
Speaker 1: great night. This is one for the hard cause. And
Speaker 1: that's why we reward you with this insight that honestly,
Speaker 1: it'll you'll see this stuff pop up in a couple
Speaker 1: of days time somewhere else. Hear it first, learn it
Speaker 1: all together. Of course, the Prime Minister thinks that, you know,
Speaker 1: if he just keeps pretending that Peter Dutton is Aussie Trump,
Speaker 1: if he can try to change the subject to medicare
Speaker 1: and if he can try to pose that he plays
Speaker 1: any role in a storm, then somehow his numbers will
Speaker 1: bounce back. Well, depending on the pole, there are some
Speaker 1: indications that maybe either they've hit the bottom or they're
Speaker 1: starting to move back to being competitive. In fact, in
Speaker 1: the Royal Morgan pole, now this bounces around like each
Speaker 1: week it shows Lives slightly in front, Labor slightly in front.
Speaker 1: It shows this week that Labor is slightly in front.
Speaker 1: A little better poll is the UGOV poll that shows
Speaker 1: that Labor is now up fifty one forty nine, in
Speaker 1: part because of the personal standing of Anthony Abinezi and
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton, who have essentially now started to eat in
Speaker 1: the middle, rather than one being able to best the other. Again,
Speaker 1: if you have a look at where they have put things. Now,
Speaker 1: remember that pole that I showed you before. The Resolve
Speaker 1: poll showed that Labour's vote is what five points down.
Speaker 1: According to this, it's only a couple of points down.
Speaker 1: The coalition's vote, well, it's supposed to be almost up
Speaker 1: to forty in this it's just in the high thirties.
Speaker 1: The Greens they end up sitting there at about what
Speaker 1: they've got at about fourteen percent. What's really important, really
Speaker 1: important for the Coalition when you are doing the numbers
Speaker 1: in your head here is have a look at the
Speaker 1: poll enhancement number, that's seven percent. You've got to hope
Speaker 1: that most of those preferences go back to the Libs. Otherwise,
Speaker 1: if they spray anywhere else, it's definitely going to be
Speaker 1: a Labor government. As for the Independence and the Trumpers
Speaker 1: there or the Trumpeter of Patriots, they're at one percent,
Speaker 1: meaning two party pre third fifty one forty nine. Why
Speaker 1: because they say Labor has not slid as far as
Speaker 1: every other pole. They say the Coalation hasn't grown as
Speaker 1: far as every other pole. We will talk about it
Speaker 1: in moments time with Kosamaras, who does his own pole,
Speaker 1: speaks to people in those swing electorates, which one does
Speaker 1: he think is closer to the mark. Also the wonderful
Speaker 1: Michael Kroger on how to achieve the result you are
Speaker 1: trying to do. One thing that the pole also shows
Speaker 1: very clearly, and I've talked about this before the majority
Speaker 1: of Australians do not share the view that I have
Speaker 1: and maybe you have. When it comes to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: They wouldn't have voted for him. That's what the polls
Speaker 1: told us in November of last year in terms of Australia,
Speaker 1: and only about thirty percent are all in on the
Speaker 1: Great Man. So there's going to be a lot more
Speaker 1: politics played between now and the election, and particularly this
Speaker 1: sort of Aussie Trump stuff in and around Dunden. But
Speaker 1: on the question of Vladimir Zelenski and Ukraine, which way
Speaker 1: do people go? Do people want to back in the
Speaker 1: Zelenski version, which is fight, fight, fight, or the Trump version,
Speaker 1: which is piece piece piece, Well sixty nine percent of
Speaker 1: Australians stand with the idea of fight fight fight, Only
Speaker 1: thirty one percent like the position. When it comes to Trump,
Speaker 1: Labour voters the least impressed with Trump are just twenty percent,
Speaker 1: Paul Enhanson voters fifty seven percent pro Trump Coalition, thirty
Speaker 1: six other voters, those independents of thirty and at twenty
Speaker 1: nine percent Green's voters are apparently more into Trump than
Speaker 1: Labor voters. In fact, the bloke who put the poll
Speaker 1: together this is Anthony Oberneese. Personal satisfaction levels have notably improved,
Speaker 1: particularly as Australian's overwhelmingly back his commitment to stand with
Speaker 1: the Ukraine. Overseas leaders who opposed Trump policies have seen
Speaker 1: improvements in their polling results. In Trump's recent twenty five
Speaker 1: percent tariff decision presents an opportunity for Alberanezi to further
Speaker 1: improve his leadership standing. Again, we will discuss all of
Speaker 1: this in a moment or two time. A new pole
Speaker 1: that has broken just as we were going to air.
Speaker 1: Great work by lucying the team who are talking here
Speaker 1: not about the ruling Morgan pole, but about the latest
Speaker 1: pole that has just dropped in the Financial review. That
Speaker 1: one again shows slight improvement for the Labor Party, but
Speaker 1: it's still worth noting here. On two party preferred they
Speaker 1: say that Labor gets seventy one seats, the coalition gets
Speaker 1: sixty six seats. As you can see the dip and
Speaker 1: then starting to come back up, the Coalition would win
Speaker 1: nine seats of the next election. The Labor Party would
Speaker 1: lose just seven. As I've said, if they lose seventy seats,
Speaker 1: they can still get there when it comes to being
Speaker 1: the minority, I think. But clearly if Labor has more
Speaker 1: seats than the coalition, then obviously they're not just in
Speaker 1: the box seat. They will form the next government. But
Speaker 1: that's what they believe to be the case. They think
Speaker 1: at least a couple of the sitting independence, perhaps a
Speaker 1: couple of those gnats that might come back in towards
Speaker 1: the coalition, or maybe a teal or two might end
Speaker 1: up being there. So worth noting when it comes to
Speaker 1: that pole. As for the issues that have just been
Speaker 1: dropped in that financial review pole, guess what the number
Speaker 1: one is? Will it surprise you? Seventy one percent of
Speaker 1: people say cost a living, So the Prime Minister tries
Speaker 1: to change it to health. It hasn't moved housing the
Speaker 1: number two issue. Now, remember housing works in multiple ways.
Speaker 1: It's about the people who renting, the people who are owning,
Speaker 1: the people who are paying off a house, the people
Speaker 1: who want something for their kids or grandkids. Crime is
Speaker 1: on top of the economy right now by one point,
Speaker 1: climate change, way out of the five, Defense, immigration, employment
Speaker 1: are all starting to taper off. And believe it or not,
Speaker 1: industrial issues at bottom of that pile top of the list.
Speaker 1: Still as so they used to say, what number one
Speaker 1: with a bullet remains cost of living for the well
Speaker 1: how of them in one hundredths week in a row.
Speaker 1: But just back to this scenario here where these polls,
Speaker 1: tell us what they have told us about the message
Speaker 1: to the Prime Minister of trying to turn Peter Dunnin
Speaker 1: into the Australian version of Donald Trump. Now we know
Speaker 1: he is not. In fact, there will be plenty of
Speaker 1: people you will read here in the next few days
Speaker 1: they're going to say he's not trumpy enough. But the
Speaker 1: reality is anyone, anyone to the right of the Greens,
Speaker 1: is going to consider themselves to be Trumpian, certainly when
Speaker 1: it comes to the teals. So get ready for this
Speaker 1: to be the lazy tag that they going to put
Speaker 1: on Peter Dutton. And as they try to move the
Speaker 1: subject from their own performance. Remember they promise changes when
Speaker 1: it came to cost of living, they promise changes when
Speaker 1: it came to home loans, all of those things way
Speaker 1: up and through the roof your life has been harder
Speaker 1: under this government, not just the decisions, but the failure
Speaker 1: in their promises. That's what this election should be about.
Speaker 1: But watch everyone try to change the subject here. Watch
Speaker 1: this try to be some sort of a proxy vote
Speaker 1: against Donald Trump. Now that's the case, It's pretty obvious
Speaker 1: the majority of Australians are not going to vote for
Speaker 1: what they believe to be anything trumpy and hence why
Speaker 1: you're going to hear it over and over again about
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton, no matter how many times he has said
Speaker 1: and proven that he is not his part of the
Speaker 1: attack that's going to be there because remember, this is
Speaker 1: the bloke who promised better conditions on cost of living.
Speaker 1: But apparently the number one issue of the next election
Speaker 1: is the trumpiness of Dutton.
Speaker 5: Such a decision by the Trump administration is entirely unjustified.
Speaker 5: This is against the spirit about two nations enduring friendship
Speaker 5: and fundamentally at odds with the benefits that our economic
Speaker 5: partnership has delivered over more than seventy years.
Speaker 1: Match that with what they person was saying, which is
Speaker 1: the harder you running against Trump, the better it looks
Speaker 1: for you. Again, I don't know whether people have got
Speaker 1: that short memory, but we'll all find out together. And
Speaker 1: the media, jeez, don't I love writing an opinion piece
Speaker 1: a think piece over and over again, particularly the Turnbulel Times,
Speaker 1: But over and over again. The new reality is dawning
Speaker 1: on Australia. It can no longer rely on the US.
Speaker 1: In the Turnbull Times, of course, the ghost said that
Speaker 1: he won't be gasold over Trump. If you suck up
Speaker 1: to him, you'll get more bullying. Geez, what a wonderful
Speaker 1: way of explaining the dying days of his prime ministership.
Speaker 1: The Telegraph had plenty of people hundreds, in fact, a
Speaker 1: couple of thousand comments about people when it comes to
Speaker 1: Trump and the tariff decision, most being negative about that
Speaker 1: tariff decision and the ultimate reason why they are hoping
Speaker 1: that Trump is going to be like a giant that
Speaker 1: produces a shadow that goes all the way across the
Speaker 1: Pacific Ocean and into Australian politics. Have a look at
Speaker 1: this one. Turbul times Trump's senseless tariffs will extend the
Speaker 1: economic malaise fell by so many in Australia and around
Speaker 1: the world. So despite the fact in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: when Donald Trump was not the president and he was
Speaker 1: in about as deep an exile as you can imagine
Speaker 1: before he went into courts where he could have spent
Speaker 1: the rest of his life in jail in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: at twenty twenty four, no no, no, no, All of
Speaker 1: that time where Albo and his mates promised to make
Speaker 1: things better but it all got worse twelve intrastrate rises,
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of dollars extra on top of your
Speaker 1: home loan. Tax on a bottle of Bundy up to
Speaker 1: sixty three percent. Sixty three percent, ludicrous, excessive taxes on
Speaker 1: cigarettes which is seen in the past three years, and
Speaker 1: explosion not just at the chop job but at the
Speaker 1: illegal gangs that are fighting it out for who gets
Speaker 1: to sell it to you. Not to mention record number
Speaker 1: of businesses that have gone broke. Not to mention three
Speaker 1: million people this close to homelessness, not like three and
Speaker 1: a bit million people who won't know where their food
Speaker 1: comes from this week. Oh no, no, no, no no, it's
Speaker 1: all about a referendum on Donald Trump. Don't let this happen.
Speaker 1: They'll try it. It's going to become the tactic for
Speaker 1: the next few weeks. It's going to be the talking
Speaker 1: point between now and the budget. The budget, and then
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks after they have not been able
Speaker 1: to get a poll bounce out of the three budgets,
Speaker 1: the three years of budgets that delivered four budgets, three
Speaker 1: budgets that they have delivered thus far before the fourth,
Speaker 1: they didn't get it out of tax cuts they won't
Speaker 1: get it out of whatever they're about to pull out
Speaker 1: of the bag. But watch the Camber Press gallery wake
Speaker 1: up to the news of Trump. Apply that exclusively to
Speaker 1: the Australian election, hoping that you forget that the people
Speaker 1: who run this country, when they were appying for the
Speaker 1: job of running this country, promised things to get better.
Speaker 1: Instead they have all got demonstrably worse. Now, this story
Speaker 1: was around last week, but I wanted to take a
Speaker 1: second or two to bring it out of the intray
Speaker 1: and put a little bit of focus and also say
Speaker 1: a little bit of a congratulations Jonathan Lee, who is
Speaker 1: one of our investigations people here, great reporter, a bloke
Speaker 1: who just is all in at everything that he does.
Speaker 1: Remember he did a little documentary and then you say little,
Speaker 1: because I think it was a little bite sized thirty
Speaker 1: minute one does really well on the website. It talked
Speaker 1: about how, among other things, superannuation funds like Australian Super
Speaker 1: when somebody dies take forever to pay out the policies. Now,
Speaker 1: this is not because a bunch of greedy people are
Speaker 1: secretly rubbing their hands together going geez, I hope I
Speaker 1: can get a couple hundred grand out of insert person's
Speaker 1: name who just passed away. No, it's because they may
Speaker 1: well have a whole series of debts. You're trying to
Speaker 1: wind up their estate. You're trying to make sure that
Speaker 1: they've got some money to hand on to kids or grandkids.
Speaker 1: But Australian Super, one of those union super funds, has
Speaker 1: now been caught kicking and screaming. Now remember this was
Speaker 1: in the reporting of Jonathan Lee last year. He was
Speaker 1: onto this ball before others were, and I'm sure others
Speaker 1: will be the ones who end up with the trophies.
Speaker 1: But I wanted to say, well under the team who
Speaker 1: picked the docos, here world, under the bloke who made
Speaker 1: the doco, and thank you to the people who spoke
Speaker 1: so honestly about their experience with Australian Super.
Speaker 4: The second of November is when we called Susan and Neville.
Speaker 6: Buckley kept detailed notes as they underwent the harrowing process
Speaker 6: of retrieving their dead son Super for a retirement. He
Speaker 6: would never get to see.
Speaker 7: He's been quite as been quite a journey and.
Speaker 1: No one ever has to go through what we did
Speaker 1: with this company.
Speaker 6: He died in a road accident last October. The parents
Speaker 6: expected the process of withdrawing your savings from Australian Super,
Speaker 6: the nation's biggest retirement fund, would be procedural, but they
Speaker 6: were completing documents in an ad hoc fashion. They say,
Speaker 6: as the process was strung out for months, we.
Speaker 8: Assumed it would take some time, but we thought weeks perhaps,
Speaker 8: but it just dragged on and then once we got
Speaker 8: into the new year and there was these huge silences,
Speaker 8: it sort of felt like we've been purposely ignored. Because
Speaker 8: soon made so many counts out on that plane for
Speaker 8: so long that the battery would run flat in it.
Speaker 8: We felt at that stage it will been deliberately installed.
Speaker 1: You go looking for that doc go on a YouTube channel,
Speaker 1: or it's going to news dot com dot you, which
Speaker 1: should be your homepage not just for the latest news,
Speaker 1: but you can find all of the videos, all of
Speaker 1: the opinion. It's their twenty four to seven. Well, the
Speaker 1: Australian Securities and Investment Commission has decided to take Australian
Speaker 1: Super to court. Put simply, they offer a product that
Speaker 1: says we will pay out under the following circumstances if
Speaker 1: one of those is death and you don't pay out,
Speaker 1: or you took take forever to pay out. And you
Speaker 1: don't tell people you're going to take forever, you're going
Speaker 1: to be in a world of trouble, or at least
Speaker 1: that's what ASE is going to try to tell the court.
Speaker 7: Wanted out to sit with prescription how long it should take.
Speaker 7: What we're really concerned about is where we say it
Speaker 7: is clearly too long. So here we have in our
Speaker 7: case we're alleging today nearly seven thousand claims that took
Speaker 7: between four months and four years to process to.
Speaker 1: The matters of COVID, and particularly the fact that five
Speaker 1: years on, the kids aren't all right. We know this
Speaker 1: to be the case because remember we showed you last
Speaker 1: week that incredible little documentary which on the Adelaide Advertiser's website.
Speaker 1: It's called Lockdown Kids. I think part four dropped today.
Speaker 1: It talks about their difficulties, their anxieties about how we
Speaker 1: and I know you and I weren't the premiers, but
Speaker 1: how we screwed up an entire generation. Another example of
Speaker 1: it is in the Sidney Morning Herald and the Age
Speaker 1: newspapers today and it shows about the number of kids
Speaker 1: that have been affected by things like COVID, but also
Speaker 1: neurodivergent kids, spicy kids, as they can occasionally be called,
Speaker 1: kids with things like dyslexia, autism, or ADHD. We're teachers
Speaker 1: reporting up to forty percent of classrooms and now made
Speaker 1: up of neurodivergent children, not all of them with an
Speaker 1: official diagnosis of autism, ADHD or dyslexia. I've got two
Speaker 1: out of those three, not the first. Those challenges can
Speaker 1: be felt even greater by some. Now the authors of
Speaker 1: a new book who serve a twelve hundred families with
Speaker 1: a neurodivergent child and six hundred different teachers. They also
Speaker 1: interviewed dozens of families, teachers, scientists, psychologists, school principles, autism experts, GPS,
Speaker 1: speech therapists as well for this new book. It is
Speaker 1: called out of the Box. It's about the picture of
Speaker 1: the number of kids who are new divergent, and one
Speaker 1: of the authors says, I felt like crying every time
Speaker 1: I say this, But we spoke to some kids' parents
Speaker 1: and the child had gone from prep to year twelve
Speaker 1: without ever being invited to a birthday party. Now, apparently
Speaker 1: this is because some people make the decision that a
Speaker 1: spicy kid is not going to fit in with all
Speaker 1: of the other kids at a party. As Madonna King
Speaker 1: says in the extracts and conversations about the book, we
Speaker 1: have to realize that, yes, there has been a lot
Speaker 1: of diagnosis, and a lot of people somehow have opinions
Speaker 1: about this. I just think we're better at diagnosing what
Speaker 1: we used to ignore in lots of different things, lots
Speaker 1: of different things. But there are going to be some
Speaker 1: kids that are going to be able to turn up.
Speaker 1: They might turn up a little bit late. They turn up,
Speaker 1: they might play one game and then they're going to
Speaker 1: try to retreat. That doesn't mean the kids have a
Speaker 1: bad time. It just means they're having a tough time
Speaker 1: being part of the party. So can I just say
Speaker 1: if you are a parent or a grandparent and you
Speaker 1: know that you would invite everyone in the class, or
Speaker 1: everyone on the soccer team, or everyone on the insert
Speaker 1: whatever group that you're in, but you think twice about
Speaker 1: maybe not that one. No, no, no, please invite them, because,
Speaker 1: as this story shows us, when kids get left behind,
Speaker 1: everything gets worse. So do your best to include as
Speaker 1: many people as possible, including the people why. Yeah, Oka,
Speaker 1: occasionally it might be difficult, but imagine what it's like
Speaker 1: for them inside. Okay, And strength and love to all
Speaker 1: of the parents, all of the grandparents, and anyone who
Speaker 1: has found their way to navigate life with things like
Speaker 1: autism or ADHD or anything else that's neurodivergin Strengthen love.
Speaker 1: As I said of that list, I've told you before,
Speaker 1: I'm a high functioning dyslexic with an awful lot of
Speaker 1: ADHD that to this very very day can be a problem.
Speaker 1: I ended up here, but many many people in and
Speaker 1: around that stuff who are a little bit spicy don't
Speaker 1: end up as lucky as I am to be able
Speaker 1: to do what I do. But strength and love. I
Speaker 1: just want you to know we see you and we're
Speaker 1: always in your corner. I promise. We really are a
Speaker 1: little bit of sport to talk about the Australian Grand Prix,
Speaker 1: and good on the fans who, by the way, not
Speaker 1: the people that were sort of running around the bird cage,
Speaker 1: you know, the celebs. God love a few of those people. However,
Speaker 1: God love the people sitting in the ponchos as. It
Speaker 1: was really warm for a couple of days, then it rained.
Speaker 1: Oscar Piastre, what is he going to win? Was he
Speaker 1: going to be the first Australian to win the Astralian
Speaker 1: Grand Prix in a very long time, and no his
Speaker 1: team at Landa Norris did though he was Oscar Piastre
Speaker 1: after spinning out.
Speaker 6: Obviously pretty pretty disappointed. I like it was a pretty
Speaker 6: pretty good race apart from.
Speaker 8: That one mistake that cost a lot. So yeah, I
Speaker 8: just such a shame.
Speaker 1: Now what about got gout? This is the bloke who
Speaker 1: is it's the fastest person to run two hundred meters
Speaker 1: this year and he's a naussy. Now we know Comwealth
Speaker 1: Games a little while away, Olympics another three years away.
Speaker 1: But what form this bloke is having? And congratulations to
Speaker 1: everyone who is part of his team. There was a
Speaker 1: big meat this weekend and he, as I said, hit
Speaker 1: it out of the park. He has not got the
Speaker 1: world record, but Jesu's close fastest time in the world
Speaker 1: over two hundred this year.
Speaker 3: Pretty much top ten times in my Career's a pretty
Speaker 3: good time.
Speaker 1: I'm still getting back in through it, so I couldn't.
Speaker 2: Be have you.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into its state of the race,
Speaker 1: hardcore political talk, new polls, what's around the corner between
Speaker 1: now the budget? Are they going to go the full
Speaker 1: levels of attack when it comes to Dunton Trump, how
Speaker 1: do you fight back against Albo and what's happening at
Speaker 1: the moment in some of the missiness when it comes
Speaker 1: to taking on the teals. Just getting started. You're going
Speaker 1: to love tonight show. Glad you are where you are.
Speaker 1: Thanks all. Oh, let us get into it deep and
Speaker 1: detailed political chat. This is the way you want to
Speaker 1: do a Sunday night. Hey, you know people who do
Speaker 1: or do not actually love each other? Fake Matt whatever, Yeah, footy,
Speaker 1: that's all done. You know what six hours ago when
Speaker 1: the Grand Prix was done. All right, this is the chat.
Speaker 1: This is the state of the race, which we get
Speaker 1: into right now with Cosamaris was of course from the
Speaker 1: red Bridge group and Michael krogerho is a legend around
Speaker 1: liberal parts. Gentlemen, Hello, get a happy by Saint Patrick's dale,
Speaker 1: all of that business. So let's get into a little
Speaker 1: bit of hot data, because we've got some new data
Speaker 1: in our hands tonight. The Freshwater Pole produces one saying
Speaker 1: that the coalition best cases nine seats, Labor would lose seven,
Speaker 1: but it puts them at seventy one sixty six. Pretty
Speaker 1: obviously they'd be able to form a minority government with
Speaker 1: even probably without the Greens, but they'd be going close
Speaker 1: to the Greens at that point. Their poll of poll
Speaker 1: shows that after Labour went really high and then basically
Speaker 1: twenty four went to sub fifty, it's either now flattening
Speaker 1: or ever so slightly coming back up. Number one issue
Speaker 1: costs of living seventy one percent housing, then healthcare. You
Speaker 1: gov produced a number yesterday that basically is the most
Speaker 1: optimistic about the Labor parties four from the previous election,
Speaker 1: where again some poles will tell you that it's what
Speaker 1: five points off. According to this it's only two points
Speaker 1: coalition not really great beneficiary. So they say that Labour
Speaker 1: Party fifty one forty nine because obviously your numbers will
Speaker 1: be the best and we will see them in the
Speaker 1: coming days. However, what do you think of what appears
Speaker 1: to be a narrative trend in the interpreting of these
Speaker 1: numbers that Olbo's back baby Not really.
Speaker 4: So what we're seeing is effectively recalibration of what existed
Speaker 4: in the electro landscape in twenty twenty two. So Labour's
Speaker 4: primary vibe it's around thirty two thirty one hasn't moved again,
Speaker 4: even with a Freshwater pole, even with you Guv's pole,
Speaker 4: it's the same number. It has not moved for pretty much,
Speaker 4: you know, since since the since Labour's primary vote declined
Speaker 4: from this honeymoon period. Coalition fluctuates between thirty seven to forty.
Speaker 4: Sometimes you see a thirty six in front of it
Speaker 4: with a really bad with a really bad sample for them,
Speaker 4: like in UGUV sample. And then of course every pulse
Speaker 4: struggles to actually capture accurately the other vote. And this
Speaker 4: is where every pulse, including us, are not going to
Speaker 4: get this right. So we've got we've got a lot
Speaker 4: of fluctuation amongst that other vote. You know, in Freshwater's numbers,
Speaker 4: Greens are at fourteen and colisions down. Well, we know
Speaker 4: that's not the case. We know that people are not
Speaker 4: jumping off the Libs and going onto the Greens.
Speaker 1: That's just not happening.
Speaker 4: So it's really just a it's an artifact of the data.
Speaker 4: Not much has changed. It is going to go down
Speaker 4: to the wire. It will bail down to which seats
Speaker 4: are you know, the Liberal Party has a high enough
Speaker 4: primary to capitalize on labor spraying of their vote, so
Speaker 4: what we will see is Labour's primary vote won't necessarily
Speaker 4: all when they hemorrhach, won't necessarily all go to the coalition.
Speaker 4: Some of them will just like I did in WA,
Speaker 4: but not all of it. So that's where I think
Speaker 4: the content is going to be fought in one and
Speaker 4: we just have to wait and see it. But I
Speaker 4: think it's very important that we just take a step back.
Speaker 1: That's this way.
Speaker 4: I think sure Dunton's camp is pretty flat forwarded at
Speaker 4: the moment and that's not helping them.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, let's be honest. I mean this show
Speaker 1: over the past couple of weeks spoken about their responsiveness
Speaker 1: or lack thereof at certain times. All right, So whether
Speaker 1: we're feeling it in real time and some data follows
Speaker 1: up and look, I think you had a much better
Speaker 1: week last week, and whether it is just those little
Speaker 1: fractions on the side. I'll pick you up in a
Speaker 1: second to go a little further cause into something that
Speaker 1: you were just talking about, say sample size, and I
Speaker 1: think you know we're all old enough to have that chat.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a second. But Michael, again,
Speaker 1: are we seeing a scenario where remember it's a whole
Speaker 1: collection of poles that start to build a trend. I
Speaker 1: know that. You know your mate Stephen Conroy, he sort
Speaker 1: of feels, yeah, they've bottomed out, and if at the
Speaker 1: very least bottoming out at fifty one forty nine is
Speaker 1: a better place to be than bottoming out at you know,
Speaker 1: forty seven fifty three or that resolt pot, which is
Speaker 1: probably the most pro change of government that's out there
Speaker 1: at the moment.
Speaker 9: Well done about Stephen Conroy. He's still recovering from having
Speaker 9: to spend set He's still recovering from having to spend
Speaker 9: several years as a minister in Kevin Rudd's government. So
Speaker 9: you've got to give You've got to give Stephen a
Speaker 9: bit of a leaf pass mate. I don't accept the
Speaker 9: yougo the Yigo pole to me, fluctuates too much. It
Speaker 9: has two percent swing against us the previous months I
Speaker 9: had three months three percent to us. It's just not consistent.
Speaker 1: Enough for me.
Speaker 9: The fresh water pole, I think I agree with because
Speaker 9: I think the coalition's momentum has slowed over the last month.
Speaker 9: Labor have had a better two weeks than the Coalition
Speaker 9: have had. I think it's all the car before the storm.
Speaker 9: I don't agree with the seventy one sixty six because
Speaker 9: that in the freshwater pole in the finterview, because that
Speaker 9: presupposes that the swing is uniform, and that's all the
Speaker 9: Pols can do. I mean they don't. I'm not blaming them,
Speaker 9: not criticizing them when you overlay what they say is
Speaker 9: you know about a three percent swing to the coalition,
Speaker 9: that gives you the result they've come up, which is
Speaker 9: seventy one sixty seventy one to Labor, sixty six to
Speaker 9: the coalition. But I think the Coalition is doing better
Speaker 9: in the marginal seats. So for example, the Coalition are
Speaker 9: going to win Aston, and they're going to win Bullwinkle
Speaker 9: and they're going to win Chisholm in Victoria, so that
Speaker 9: gives Dutton sixty nine and Albanezy sixty eight. And I
Speaker 9: also think the Coalition are going to win McEwan, Brisbane
Speaker 9: and Boothby. So that's how I get to seventy two
Speaker 9: and I've got Abo on sixty five. I think the
Speaker 9: Liberal vote in liberal seats is probably not increasing that much.
Speaker 9: I think the swing is on in marginal seats, particularly
Speaker 9: the outer suburban marginal seats, and that's why I've got
Speaker 9: Dutton head and that's why I think his favorite to
Speaker 9: in the election made.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm also looking forward to somebody getting
Speaker 1: under the hood of say Ben Along read in New
Speaker 1: South Wales Ben Along. You know. Again redistribution notionally this
Speaker 1: but the whole point is labor seat currently but very
Speaker 1: small margin. And again this is part of the lesson.
Speaker 1: When I turn around and I'm trying to try to
Speaker 1: give you as much of a picture right as you know,
Speaker 1: all we can do is have an insight. Okay, not
Speaker 1: the crystal ball, because all of us will be off,
Speaker 1: you know, with this week's lot of numbers, right, But
Speaker 1: it's about that crystal ball and the best insights that
Speaker 1: we can get. One of the reasons why we love
Speaker 1: talking to Causes because he's not just doing a polling,
Speaker 1: but there's also these conversations with voters. He's able to
Speaker 1: see and hear the stuff that may not turn up
Speaker 1: in a which way someone's going to vote, but becomes
Speaker 1: indicative of where someone's going to go. Now again, you
Speaker 1: mentioned before about sample here cause and again I can
Speaker 1: imagine the haters watching going, Oh, of course you want
Speaker 1: to talk about sample size when the poll isn't going
Speaker 1: the way you want it to be settled down. Relax, Okay,
Speaker 1: let's have the adult chat you want to play like that,
Speaker 1: go over to the ghost's house at point Piper, he'll
Speaker 1: hang out with you. Right, but right now my thing
Speaker 1: here cause is okay, when you whatever statistically relevant one
Speaker 1: thousand people, fifteen hundred people, and then you have to
Speaker 1: go and find what percentage of the population is twenty
Speaker 1: five to thirty four, what percentage lives in Victoria, you've
Speaker 1: got a sort of balance around all of that before
Speaker 1: you even start to get into political identification. Was there
Speaker 1: anything in that Yuga poll the show's labor slightly up
Speaker 1: over the Libs that is just just stands out to
Speaker 1: you as they've asked too many of this or not
Speaker 1: enough of that, and anything in that you was talking
Speaker 1: about sample before. Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 4: Look, you know, I really do emphasize the margin of era,
Speaker 4: which we are all as polsters do to report, but
Speaker 4: no one really pays attention to it. Like you know
Speaker 4: in twenty nineteen everyone wrote up the poles wrong. Well,
Speaker 4: if you're actually factoring in the margin of ra and
Speaker 4: all those poles actually quite accurate, right, it's just that right,
Speaker 4: Like it's if it's a fifty one forty nine contest
Speaker 4: and you've got three percent margin of era, it could
Speaker 4: go anyway right now, And go back to Michael's point,
Speaker 4: which is absolutely critical, you can't uniformly apply in today
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, right, so you know, it could be
Speaker 4: very different in outer suburbs and regions versus the inner
Speaker 4: parts of our art cities. So it's a seat by
Speaker 4: seat situation and applying you know, swings at uniformly it
Speaker 4: just doesn't work right now in this political landscape. So
Speaker 4: you know, I've said that Labor could win with a
Speaker 4: forty eight two party preferred or they could lose with
Speaker 4: a fifty one two party preferred. We just don't know.
Speaker 4: R It's such a complicated election. It is the most
Speaker 4: complicated SINS federation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree completely because as we've discussed before, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, when you were sitting in a studio in
Speaker 1: Perth a couple of weeks ago, things are very different
Speaker 1: than where they are And of course the East Coast
Speaker 1: isn't a uniform outside of Brisbane versus you know that
Speaker 1: the Sunny Coast, Gold Coast are the Teals having a
Speaker 1: crack in the north of this city or the west,
Speaker 1: you know, or all of those pictures, let alone, as
Speaker 1: I said, the West to play people who might just
Speaker 1: be giving up on the Labor Party, you know, because
Speaker 1: of the Victorian government, or Die Aley's you know, mates
Speaker 1: got to run. So there's so much inside all of this.
Speaker 1: But I wanted to ask you both about something which
Speaker 1: is such a number that to me screams, hey, pay
Speaker 1: attention everyone and wake up. This number matters. Okay, essential
Speaker 1: Pole Turnbull times in the Guardian, Okay, thirteen percent of
Speaker 1: people say I have not decided who I'm going to
Speaker 1: vote for. Okay, we all know that'd be logically the case.
Speaker 1: It's compulsory voting a lot of people paying attention to
Speaker 1: everything else. But the reason I wanted to mention it though,
Speaker 1: was once you start to break things down into voting intention,
Speaker 1: which I think means you are starting to see what
Speaker 1: people are saying. To a polster, they'll say, yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: going to vote labor. But what percentage of that actually
Speaker 1: is not just soft but doesn't exist? All right, It's
Speaker 1: just a place to hold because you decide to do
Speaker 1: a poll and you end up picking one of the
Speaker 1: options right. Nine percent of Labors vote according to this
Speaker 1: have not decided who they're voting for, not not the
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent to say I think, but I might
Speaker 1: change their mind. Right, we're talking literally about the people
Speaker 1: who just tick the box because it's a box, right.
Speaker 1: Four percent of Coalition less than that of Green's. Here's
Speaker 1: the one that matters. Twenty percent of independent or other
Speaker 1: party voters have not decided who they're going to vote for.
Speaker 1: Thirty eight percent say that they think they know who
Speaker 1: they're going to vote for, but they could change their mind.
Speaker 1: That's the election, cause that's the whole damn election. Where
Speaker 1: where right now in polls we're seeing, oh, the Independent,
Speaker 1: the other, the Teal, the one nation, the trumpet of
Speaker 1: the Patriots number, Oh it's twenty five percent, well made
Speaker 1: of twenty one in five voters is just ticking the
Speaker 1: box but hasn't actually decided. Then we're wrestlings smoke.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, I mean you are dealing with now
Speaker 4: a situation where as I said mentioned before, it's a
Speaker 4: seat by sea scenario. But you're just going to have
Speaker 4: to just take a chill pill and just wait for
Speaker 4: the numbers to come in on election night and let's
Speaker 4: see how they all fall. Let's see how the preferences fly.
Speaker 1: Preference arrangements will be absolutely critical in.
Speaker 4: So many seats five point two million Austrains vote for
Speaker 4: something other than the major part is the last election.
Speaker 4: That numbers going to be a little bit bigger time proportionally,
Speaker 4: and they're going to and those individuals they're going to
Speaker 4: determine the outcome of this election.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah. And the way that they categorize in this
Speaker 1: poll literally Labor, Coalition, Greens and then everyone else. So
Speaker 1: you're talking about everything from Trumpet to the Patriots to
Speaker 1: Victorian socialists, all right, and all in between. But Michael,
Speaker 1: as a person who would be sitting around the war
Speaker 1: rooms of the Coalition trying to work out, okay, that
Speaker 1: twenty percent that are just ticking the box of other
Speaker 1: you've got to get them before you even get the doubters,
Speaker 1: or do you get the doubters and then you go
Speaker 1: and get the oh I've got to vote people.
Speaker 9: Well, you get them through the campaign and through having
Speaker 9: the best campaign, and that means the best policies that
Speaker 9: appeal to not just them, but across the board, so
Speaker 9: you can identify who they are. You don't know who
Speaker 9: they are in many respects, and you can't have policies
Speaker 9: which specifically appeal to them. You haven't got to have
Speaker 9: very strong policies on cost of living and on the
Speaker 9: other important issues that have been in that poll. But
Speaker 9: what I think works against Elbow in the end is
Speaker 9: the fact that he's been a poor prime minister. Most
Speaker 9: people agree with that he's a poor campaigner. People know
Speaker 9: that the budget is not going to help them. There's
Speaker 9: a sea of reading coming to a government which has said, oh,
Speaker 9: we're great economic managers. We've had two surpluses which you've
Speaker 9: actually had nothing to do with them. And of course
Speaker 9: the other issue they're going to the sleeper they've got
Speaker 9: to deal with is are they going to preference the
Speaker 9: Greens everywhere? So you go back to the seat we've
Speaker 9: talked about before, McNamara. Are they going to say to
Speaker 9: Jewish voters in Macnamara where they have a Jewish member
Speaker 9: of Parliament that Josh Burns thinks you should put the
Speaker 9: Greens second ahead of the Liberal Party. That will alienate
Speaker 9: every Jewish voter in the country. That's the five percent
Speaker 9: of them haven't been alienated already. So Elbow's got to
Speaker 9: deal with this Green preferences issue in Ryan Brisbane and
Speaker 9: McNamara in particular. So that's the other issue, the sleeper issue,
Speaker 9: which is going to bite him in the last couple
Speaker 9: of weeks of the campaign. That the minute he has
Speaker 9: been able to fob off and say, oh, that's a
Speaker 9: national executive decision, everyone knows he controls the national executive,
Speaker 9: it's his personal decision and he's going to get flayed
Speaker 9: if he tells everyone in this country that the Greens
Speaker 9: have to be preferenced before the Liberal Party, that will
Speaker 9: probably finish him off in my view.
Speaker 1: Well, and just to ram him the point, going back
Speaker 1: to the census of a couple of years ago, there's
Speaker 1: about one hundred thousand people who identify as Jewish in Australia.
Speaker 1: That's zero point four percent in Victoria, zero point seven
Speaker 1: In McNamara there are sixteen and a half thousand people
Speaker 1: of Jewish descent who are there. And that's number from
Speaker 1: a few years ago. That's nine almost ten percent. So
Speaker 1: exactly why that matters. And as always these boys are
Speaker 1: on the numbers quick break back. The more I want
Speaker 1: to talk about the trump of it all, because there
Speaker 1: is an awful lot of people that are going to
Speaker 1: want to just live the American news cycle all day long.
Speaker 1: Will it have an effect? They start to say it
Speaker 1: in the focus Grips State of the Race part of
Speaker 1: Paul Murray Live This and Every Sunday Night. Thanks a watch,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for watching. Hey can I also
Speaker 1: give a shout out to James Bolt and his beautiful
Speaker 1: new wife Brie at their wedding yesterday, spectacular ceremony. He's
Speaker 1: a wonderful guy. He worked on this show for a
Speaker 1: very significant period of time and I love him very much.
Speaker 1: They're a beautiful couple and is an awesome when you
Speaker 1: go to a wedding and you go these two love
Speaker 1: each other, This is awesome, great venue. They're gonna have
Speaker 1: a great future. So it was a wonderful night. And yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I just I owned that dance for a baby. I
Speaker 1: own that dance floor. And you know what, I don't
Speaker 1: know how many buttons came out. Whatever. That's just the
Speaker 1: way it is. That's just the way it is. Michael Krager,
Speaker 1: are you that type of guy who it doesn't matter
Speaker 1: you know one sort of apps, give me give me
Speaker 1: a man after midnight shirt is just torn asunder. I
Speaker 1: reckon coz Is I'm not even asking him. I know, couses.
Speaker 9: Depends how many events, how many chocolate bars we've had, mate,
Speaker 9: that's the answer that question. All right, Now, let's go
Speaker 9: to your case and your case is usually a few.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I preload as well. Wrong with it. It's like
Speaker 1: you know, the kids are sort of preloaded at home.
Speaker 1: I was preloading for days before the party. All right, now,
Speaker 1: speed abound. I want to get to Trump in a second.
Speaker 1: But when there's this big gst bailout of the Victorian
Speaker 1: government because we know how big a problem there is
Speaker 1: in Victoria, just you know, money for a government that
Speaker 1: you are so embarrassed by that you won't campaign with them.
Speaker 1: Does this move the needle at all, this sort of
Speaker 1: money or it just all goes into the black hole
Speaker 1: that is that government?
Speaker 4: I think you know, we're talking about the national polls
Speaker 4: and what they mean, Well, they won't pick up. It's
Speaker 4: just how serious of a problem labors facing in Victoria
Speaker 4: at a federal level. And yes, it's impacted by the
Speaker 4: state government. The numbers that we're seeing in our research
Speaker 4: consistently now suggest the swing against labor and Victoria is hovering.
Speaker 4: You know something around eight percent two party preferred. Now
Speaker 4: we don't obviously apply that uniformly across every seat, but
Speaker 4: there are at least five to seven seats in play
Speaker 4: Yere and every month, every week the pass that goes by,
Speaker 4: there's another seat that gets added to their target seed list.
Speaker 4: So you know, I think the election will be one
Speaker 4: or lost in the state of Victoria, and it's not
Speaker 4: a good picture of the Labour side of politics.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well watch this space. Now let's get
Speaker 1: to the Trump of everything here. Now, as I said, Michael,
Speaker 1: you and I fans of the Great Man. However, according
Speaker 1: to what is publicly available, not the majority viewer of
Speaker 1: the majority of people or twenty percent of people are hiding.
Speaker 1: Certainly one hundred percent of people that come up and
Speaker 1: say hello to you and I, they're all in on
Speaker 1: the Great Man. So let's talk about the politics and
Speaker 1: whether Labor is now going to try to pivot to Dutton.
Speaker 1: Is Aussie Trump. They're going to find a way to
Speaker 1: be running against Trump and everything Trump, despite the fact
Speaker 1: that of course the right wing of Australian politics is
Speaker 1: this said Fie that he ain't Trump enough. Also, we're
Speaker 1: in a scenario where you know, every day we wake
Speaker 1: up to the news because of the time zones and
Speaker 1: all the wild stuff out of America. Is it going
Speaker 1: to help Albo sort of running against Trump and trying
Speaker 1: to turn Duarton into Trump's proxy even though he's not well.
Speaker 9: I'll try that, but it's got almost zero impact here.
Speaker 9: And Dutton has been very critical of Trump, as are
Speaker 9: many people in the Liberal Party over particularly over the Ukraine.
Speaker 9: And you saw that Pole very disappointing what he's doing
Speaker 9: over the Ukraine. I think he's got completely the wrong
Speaker 9: way around. If you're beating the Russians agreement first, then
Speaker 9: the Ukraine is not the way he's doing it. A
Speaker 9: lot of Liberals are very unhappy as Dutton is note
Speaker 9: out with the tariff decision of the Americans, with what
Speaker 9: he's doing in Canada and Mexico with tariff's et cetera,
Speaker 9: et cetera. And Peter Dutton's been very critical of Trump publicly,
Speaker 9: so you know Albo can try that. Albo has to
Speaker 9: concer and trade on a second term labor agenda. The
Speaker 9: more he talks about Trump or that type of stuff,
Speaker 9: the Electric says that it's got no bearing doesn't help
Speaker 9: me today you're talking about Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Yeah too clever by half.
Speaker 9: What is happening in Australia today to put food on
Speaker 9: my table, to money in my bank account, to help
Speaker 9: pay my mortgage, right to pay my school, my kids education,
Speaker 9: pray the car registration bill, et cetera, et cetera. So
Speaker 9: the more you get diverted on the things which are
Speaker 9: so obviously just diversionary tactics, the worse he'll do. Albow
Speaker 9: needs to say, here's my second term agenda now at
Speaker 9: the minute, mate, he's done none of that, absolutely none
Speaker 9: of that. Until he's able to do that, I think
Speaker 9: he's going to get He's had, you know, the poles
Speaker 9: of flat lined. But unless he gives people the reason
Speaker 9: to vote for him for a second time, he's Koputski,
Speaker 9: I think.
Speaker 1: Because same question but thirty seconds of an answer. Are
Speaker 1: you starting to notice people talking about Trump and the
Speaker 1: overhang or is that a press gallery thing?
Speaker 4: Most doing Australians to the to the United States for
Speaker 4: most of their political news. They know more about the
Speaker 4: politics in the US and they know about the policy
Speaker 4: in Australia, so that doesn't necessarily they are fans of Trump.
Speaker 4: But they that's that's where their attention is at. Now
Speaker 4: do they think that, you know, Dunton is a mirror
Speaker 4: copy of Trump, No, they don't. Is it going to
Speaker 4: have an impact? I don't think so, unless, of course,
Speaker 4: you know that the tariff war was escalating. People are
Speaker 4: scared about inflation. But at the moment I think it's
Speaker 4: a it's a side on issue. It's not really going
Speaker 4: to impact the the the election coming up.
Speaker 1: Good stuff, Thank you lads. I look forward to a
Speaker 1: big meta chat again next week. Very very good. By
Speaker 1: the way, the report James Bolt just sent me a
Speaker 1: text was all of the buttons. All of the buttons