WEBVTT - Sharri | 19 May 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:04.640 Live on Sky News. This is Shari. 0:00:06.200 --> 0:00:09.080 Good Evening, Caleb Bond filling in for Sharry Marxon this week. 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:11.960 He's what's coming up tonight. A Liberal MP says what 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:15.680 voters are thinking. The Liberal Party must abandon Net zero. 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.160 Will Susan lay listen though my analysis In a moment 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.640 Joe Barden is diagnosed with an aggressive form of cancer. 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:25.919 I'll discuss that with Kosher Garda shortly and a major 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.800 breakthrough in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas. Is an 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:33.240 end to the war finally in sight now, in amongst 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:36.200 all the finger pointing and blame games and whatever else 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:39.920 that there's been since Labour's thumping election win and consequently 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:42.839 the Liberal Party's thumping loss, I think I read the 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:46.519 most clear eyed and sensible analysis in The Australian today 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:50.320 from the lnp's Garth Hamilton. He's come to the conclusion 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:54.040 that the party has become too invested in blank Czech politics, 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:58.200 from things like NIT zero to the NDAs Hamilton wrote, 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:02.120 I could include defense spending on helicopters we've decommissioned and 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.760 submarines we've canceled. I could speak to our management of 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:09.600 the federation that sees the states compete only for budget blowouts, 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:14.959 new taxes, bureaucratic latency, and record low housing approvals. The 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:19.440 point is that we've changed, We've lost the economic argument, 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:23.199 that is the hard truth, and this is a huge 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.919 problem for the Liberal Party and the Coalition as a whole. 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.840 I mean, you back or support something from a moral standpoint, 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:33.039 like net zero or the NDAs because you think it'll 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:35.880 look like the right thing to do, but in doing so, 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:40.160 you are committing yourself to decades of uncontrolled spending. And 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.000 it is on that count that the Liberals lose out 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.000 because it means they can't point to themselves as better 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:50.200 economic managers, which has traditionally been their strong suit. So 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.600 you can try to win what you might call the 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:56.920 Teal people with softer climate and softer social policies, but 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:59.800 that hasn't really worked because you've only won one seat, 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:02.520 and that was more to do with a good candidate 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:05.120 in Tim Wilson than anything else. And you may will 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.799 actually lose another seat to another Teal which we'll talk 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:11.640 about a little bit later. And then at the same 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:14.440 time you lose people, and there are plenty of them. 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:18.080 In fact, arguably a majority of Australians who say, well, 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:20.920 this mob is not really that different to that mob, 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:24.040 so why would I bother changing the manager. I mean, 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.480 you're both taking us to a trillion dollars of debt, 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:30.280 so really, what's the difference. And of course the things 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:34.200 that were different, like nuclear energy were hidden away. On 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.640 net zero, Hamilton wrote, what I do know is that 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:41.160 I cannot support any policy that demands a blank check 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:45.400 and defers the costs of today onto the taxpayers of tomorrow. 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:48.560 On how the Liberal Party ended up in such a malaise, 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.440 he wrote, the best thing about Peter Dutton was that 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:55.120 he brought peace and stability to our party. The worst 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:58.240 thing about Peter Dutton was that he brought peace and 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.920 stability to our part. We needed to rid ourselves of 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:04.079 some of that baggage. We needed to have a few 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:08.640 internal policy fights to test our resolve. Thomas Jefferson believed 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.920 every generation needs a new revolution, and I believe the 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:15.960 new generation of Liberals need that too. And he's clear 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.120 that he doesn't want to relitigate the past. Mistakes have 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:22.000 been made. We all know that. But the Liberal Party 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:24.560 now needs to have the fights that it never really 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:28.679 had after it lost government. In twenty twenty two. We're 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:32.040 a center right party. He writes. If we move towards 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:36.160 smaller government, balanced budgets, the individual above the state, we 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:38.840 will be headed in the right direction and Australians with 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:42.080 a mind to follow us, mind to tomorrow sorry, will 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:45.040 follow us. This won't be an easy path, and I 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:48.080 have no doubt we've many policy fights ahead, but it's 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.440 time to acknowledge the peace the Liberal Party enjoyed in 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:55.200 the last term, the unity and stability we praised ourselves for, 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:59.200 came at a cost, and so it's time to get 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:03.040 serious now. I mean, there are clearly divisions still. Susan 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.880 Lee only won the leadership by four votes. So have 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.960 it out, fight, knock your heads together, come up with 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:14.960 something that actually makes sense. People couldn't really give two 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.120 hoops about left or right, or up or down or 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:21.920 anything else. They just want good policy that makes them 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:25.320 feel better off now. Robert Menzies set out in nineteen 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:29.280 fifty four in his We Believe Statement, that liberals believe in, 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:33.880 amongst other things, the individual liberty, that the class war 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.479 is a false war. That improved living standards depend on 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:42.200 high productivity and efficient service, that economic power and policy 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:46.120 are not designed to control people's lives. The great human 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:50.760 freedoms they believe in, and religious and racial sorry tolerance 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:54.719 among our citizens, and they are all as noble and 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:58.560 relevant today as they were then. And that is what 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:02.320 the Liberal Party has to BELI. It is their mission statement, 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:05.640 straight from their founder. Now there are some who think 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.120 the answer to the Liberal Party is to drag it 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:12.080 further to the left to become effectively the Teals, But 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:15.160 there are two problems with that. One, it won't work 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.400 because the Teals already exist, and it wasn't the inner 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:21.800 city where the Liberals' hemorrhage seats at this election. It 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.720 was in the suburbs where the battlers live. You won't 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:29.400 win battlers back by going all ev Climatista on them. Two, 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:32.279 if the Liberal and National Coalition breaks up, which is 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:35.120 very much on the table, then the Nats are never 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:37.480 going to come back and join with a party that 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:41.520 has moved its ethos even further away from them, further 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:44.599 than they are now. And the Nationals, by the way, 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:48.240 haven't lost a lower House seat since two thousand and seven, 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.160 So if the Libs wanted a mate to help them 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.320 form government and that's what they've always needed from the Nationals. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.600 Then the Nats would have some serious demands to make, 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:02.480 just as they will now. The coalition going dropping NED 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:05.680 zero is not reckless and nor is it a mass 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:09.000 vote killer. People are now far more concerned about the 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.919 cost of living than they are about climate change or 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.560 anything else. Even young people have been hit by reality 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.960 to some degree. Mission Australia's twenty twenty four Youth Survey 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.240 found fifty six percent of respondents age fifteen to nineteen 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.799 were concerned about the cost of living number one, making 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.719 it far and away the most important issue, if not 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:32.039 climate change in the environment of its perch, which was 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:35.280 in twenty twenty three the top concern for forty four 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:38.279 percent of young people. Last year it dropped to twenty 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:41.560 seven percent. And this was pretty funny too. A quality 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:44.200 and discrimination was knocked out of the top four issues 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:49.040 for young people, replaced by violence, safety and crime. What 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:51.960 more do you need to know about where the electorate 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:55.640 is even young people that we're told the Liberal Party 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:59.320 needs to win back, and yes they do, but the 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:02.279 fact is you don't win elections by looking like the 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:05.560 other guy. You can't just price match every policy like 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.240 it's a whipper snipper at Bunnings. You need to be 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.720 different and you need to have a vision for the future, 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:12.800 a better. 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:16.760 Now. 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:19.440 I must say it's been positive, if not a little amusing, 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:22.400 to see so many media outlets now waking up to 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.960 the reality that the illicit tobacco market has exploded into 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:30.000 a runaway success for organized crime. Now regular viewers and 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.400 readers will know that I've been banging on about this 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:36.040 four years, that the price of legal cigarettes is far 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:39.600 too high due to extortionate tax that the federal government 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.000 charges on tobacco. I mean the tax on cigarettes has 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.840 tripled in a decade, from forty seven cents per stick 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:50.800 in twenty fifteen to a dollar forty today. I mean, 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:53.240 an average packet of sigis will cost you in the 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.520 order of fifty dollars. It's just outrageous, and it has 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.400 precious little to do with health. It's because the government 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.080 wants to squeeze as much money as it can out 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.000 of poor old smokers. And I warned that that would 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:08.160 lead to a booming illegal market, and of course that 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.480 is exactly what's happened. You can buy an illegal packet 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.560 of diaries in almost any dodgy tobacco, hordes of which 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:17.920 keep popping up across the country every week for less 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:21.040 than twenty bucks, and the war between the various gangs 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:24.960 to control this market has already killed at least two people. 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:28.960 An innocent woman, Cape Tangney, was killed in Melbourne earlier 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:32.720 this year after thugs involved in illicit tobacco fire bombed 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:36.520 the wrong house and gangland figure Sam Abdul Rahim, known 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:39.800 as the Punisher, who was allegedly involved in the illicit 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:42.600 tobacco trade. He tried to muscle in so the other 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.960 players were after him, was executed in January. Now sixty 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:50.280 Minutes and four Corners both ran investigations within a day 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:53.120 of each other a couple of months ago. Today, it 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:55.840 was the Sydney Morning Herald which pointed out that there 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:58.760 are now twenty odd tobacco shops on King Street in 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:02.440 Utown in Sydney, compared to just a handful a decade ago, 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:05.839 which is odd seeing is that fewer than one in 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:11.280 ten people smoke now compared to vastly bore a decade ago. 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.920 And the article notes that while Melbourne has been the 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:17.120 center of most of the violence in the illicit cigarette trade, 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.480 Sydney has had two alleged tobacco related fire bombings this 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:24.160 month in Auburn and Mount Pritchard, and police are worried 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:27.760 about where things are headed. The war has spread into 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:31.040 South Australia too. Again, I told you so. I mean, 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:34.600 there was no way it was simply going to stop 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:38.000 in Melbourne without the illegal market being stopped in its tracks. 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:40.840 And the only way to do that is to stop 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.920 taxing it so much, so much that it turns people 0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:46.560 to the illicit product. I mean, they're not doing it 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:48.960 because they want to be petty criminals. They're doing it 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:52.120 because they're addicted and they can't afford the legal one. 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:54.960 What do you expect them to do? Even people within 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:58.800 the Victorian Police are now asking the federal government why 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.080 they can't at least freeze the tax. 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:06.120 Jason Kelly from Victoria, Please, mister, thank you for the presentation. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:09.319 A lot of members of the community just don't understand 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.680 why we can't pause the tax or at least reduce 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:16.640 the tax, because the illicit market and organized crime are 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:18.160 really reaping the benefits. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.800 And it's a really tough one. I get that. So 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:28.040 the difficulty we have with that proposal involves raising the 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:33.600 white flag on this question and basically allowing criminals to 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:37.560 dictate the legal price and the revenue arrangements that the 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:38.559 Commonwealth would have. 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.080 The SMAH said that nearly forty percent of tobacco consumption 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:46.559 across Australia was illicit last year, according to an Industry 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:50.640 Commission report by FDI Consulting, an increase of twenty eight 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:54.800 point six percent on twenty twenty three. A whopping seventeen 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:58.199 point six billion dollars of revenue has been wiped off 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:02.360 the federal budgets. Forward estimates all lost tobacco tax in 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:06.360 the past year alone. The Media Economic Update, which of 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:08.840 course we got at the end of last year, downgraded 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:12.599 tobacco excise revenue by two point eight billion this financial 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:15.640 year and ten point seven billion over the four years 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.040 to twenty seven twenty eight, ostensibly because so much of 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.800 the market is being lost to the untaxed product pushed 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:27.320 by organized crime gangs. March federal budget that wiped another 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:30.160 one point three billion dollars off this year's tobacco tax 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.000 and another six point nine billion to twenty eight twenty nine, 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.480 not because they've stopped smoking, because they found a cheaper 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:41.520 product that's funding organized crime and all. It's grizzly activity. 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:44.400 So I'm glad that people are starting to wake up. 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.840 But this has been coming four years. I've been talking 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:51.160 about it for years, and the federal government has done 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:55.319 nothing to stop it. They've kept doing exactly the same thing, 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:58.680 increasing the tax and then wondering why it gets worse. 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:05.280 Let's take that to my panel tonight, Sky and News 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:09.360 contributor Joe Hildebrand and host Steve Price. Steve, of course, 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.320 you've borne the brunt of most of this down in Melbourne. 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:14.720 I mean more than one hundred fire bombings you've had 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.480 at tobacconists. You've got insurance companies now refusing to ensure 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.920 people who live in buildings that have a tobacconist down 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.200 the bottom of them, and the federal government just won't 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:27.640 move on this. It is so stupid. 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:31.800 Yeah, look, they don't understand. 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:34.839 I mean there's a fire bombing of a tobacco shop 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:38.079 every night pretty much in Melbourne. And that's been going on, Caleb, 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:41.319 I now think probably for four or five years. I mean, 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:45.360 it is bloody dangerous. And I tell you what, there's 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:48.040 shopping strips. I mean, you mentioned how many of these 0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:52.760 tobacco joints are around up and down say Chapel Street 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:57.240 in windsorom Brand. Every second shops a tobacconist, and you 0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:00.640 could just walk in there and obviously clearly purchase an 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:01.520 illegal product. 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:02.800 Now, the police have not. 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:06.600 Got the resources to shut those shops down. They don't 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:08.520 seem to have the will either, and the state government 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:10.160 certainly doesn't have the will neither. 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:10.880 There's camera. 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:16.040 It's a dangerous criminal activity that they just refuse to 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.520 accept as happening. And you're quite right, we could all 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:21.800 see this coming. I mean, who's going to go into 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.040 the Ida or to Woolies and pay fifty seven dollars 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:27.240 for a packet of cigarettes. No one's going to do 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:29.160 that if they know they could walk next door and 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.320 get the same packet, as you said, for twenty bucks. 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.199 And I feel so sorry, Joe for the states, because 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:37.240 you know, the states get saddled with having to enforce 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:39.160 all of this, but it's not their fault. 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:39.280 Now. 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:41.920 The federal government is so greedy that they say, well, 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.040 we want more and more tax, But the reality now 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:47.160 is the tax is going backwards because everyone is buying 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:49.760 the illegal stuff. Anyway, you would think even from the 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.560 bottom line, the budgetary bottom line, they'd start to go on, 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:54.320 hang on, this isn't working well. 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.720 As the good Minister said, you know, we can't let 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:02.640 organized crime dicta comphouse revenue menage is the government which 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:04.720 I think actually so of bells the cut on this 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:06.480 that this is a huge money spinner for the government. 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:07.320 It used to be. 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.800 I remember when all these taxes and the plane packaging 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:12.680 and everything was brought in, back when I think Tanya 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:16.079 plipper Set was Health Minister, and the argument was that 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:21.240 that tobacco actually cost the country, cost the tax payer 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:25.920 so much money in medical in medical expenses, hospital stays, 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:28.840 you know, people being off from work because they're sick. 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.120 And I remember noticing a few years ago in one 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:34.240 of the budget lockups that the amount of money that 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.800 the government was now getting from tobacco xcize was now 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:40.760 outpacing how much smoking actually cost the community. 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:43.080 So from then on it obviously became a cash cow. 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.280 I think another problem for the government is that at 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.720 the exact same time as the tobacco taxes were skyrocketing, 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.800 they were cracking down on vaping as well, which is 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:53.720 how a lot of people were because I think a 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.360 lot of the reason it's going down is because some 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.320 people are quitting. But again, the easiest way for pretty 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.080 much every smoker I know to quit has been to 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.440 transition to vaping, and they were making that harder putting 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:06.800 up more regulatory hurdles at the same time. 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:07.920 So it was a perfect store. 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:09.680 It's just stupid stuff. 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:09.920 Now. 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:14.960 Of course, I talked earlier about the sorry stell what 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.720 happened to the crackdown on vapes, these things that come 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.360 into the country that are supposed to be illegal. At 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.240 Mark Butler announced, I don't see any crackdown on vapes. 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:25.600 But this is the thing as well. They missed a 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.240 trick there because they could have regulated it in the 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.360 same way they do cigarettes and said, well, we understand 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:33.720 that the illegal cigarette market already exists. Of course there's 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:36.160 going to be an illegal vape market, but they said, no, no, 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:37.600 we'll ban it. It'll all be fine. 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:43.000 Work, don't smoke illegal cigarettes, buy, doesn't regulated, vote exactly, 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:43.480 And that was. 0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:45.160 And the market was doing that, but the governments of 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.240 everything they touched, they bagger up. Now. The other thing 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:49.680 I talked about at the top of the show, of course, 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:52.000 is that the Liberal Party and how they're going they 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.000 could decide what their philosophies will be going forward, and 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:57.760 it's interesting to see the divide. I talked about what 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.520 Garth Hamilton had to say and and I think it's 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.120 some of the best analysis I've seen so far. On 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:05.800 the other side, this was Senator Jane hu mo onscar 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:06.440 Us today. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.040 I have a personal opinion on that, of course, and 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.960 that would be that the election has sent us a 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.120 very clear message what it is that they want in 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:20.160 their government. Abandoning net zero. I don't necessarily think is 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:21.400 consistent with that. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.080 I mean, Steve, do we really believe that everyone went 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:28.760 out and voted for labor because they couldn't be at 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:31.440 the idea of net zero not existing? I don't think 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:32.920 they had anything to do with it. 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:36.880 No one's marching in the street for net zero. I 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.760 don't care what any labor minister says or what Chris 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:43.320 Bowen rattles on about. It's simply that's not the issue. 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.080 I mean, the Liberal Party you got to wake up 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.120 to themselves, and Jane and Hume needs to as well. 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.160 I mean, have a look at the train wreckage around 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.080 the country. I mean, put to one side for a 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:55.920 moment that awful election loss and how devastating that was. 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.000 Hav A look at Wa the Liberal Party basically doesn't exist. 0:16:59.040 --> 0:16:59.680 I got. 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.360 They've got two or three members in the state parliament. 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:06.560 Basil's emplast is trying to fix that up. In South 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.200 Australia and Adelaide, the federal Liberal Party don't have one 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.520 seat in yours of my old hometown Color. I mean 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.640 that is just something that growing up in South Australia, 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:17.320 you could never imagine. 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:20.480 That that would be the case. In Victoria, the state oppositions. 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:23.280 They pretty much lost every booth in Adelaide, let alone 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.320 every seat, which is just extraordinary. 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:28.439 I mean I grew up in the seat of Sturt 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:31.120 that was always a Liberal seat. I mean Adelaide had 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:33.480 a divide, as you know, the eastern suburbs and the 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.320 inner southern suburbs were always Liberal territory Port Adelaide and 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:38.800 the western suburbs were different. 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:40.199 But I mean the. 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:43.679 Victorian state opposition they spent all of their time throwing 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:45.720 more a deeming out of the party and not worrying 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.359 about trying to win an election. Dan Andrews won three 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.240 elections in a row in Victoria. The Liberals never got 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:55.280 within a sniff, So it's not hard to work out 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:58.680 what's gone wrong here. The Liberal brand is completely stuffed 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.359 and if they don't realize that themselves, how is it 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:02.320 ever going to be fixed. 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:04.879 Yeah, And the point, Joe, is that it's not just 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:08.480 about dropping net zero or having net zero, it's about 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:10.520 the effect of doing so. And if you can say 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:14.000 by dropping net zero, we can wind back whatever plans 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.360 they might be for renewable energy, whatever they can sell 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:18.959 and say, look, this will result in a reduction in 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:21.720 your power bills for instance, that is the point of 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:23.040 going down this road, right. 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:25.440 Yeah, I thought it was a really interesting article by 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.280 Garth Hamilton. But to be honest, I think even talking 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:30.680 about net zero is a problem for the Liberal party. 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.120 I think the reason why this election was such an 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:37.159 emphatic win for Labor is because Labor moved to and 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.200 held the center. And I know that's something that a 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:40.840 lot of people on the right refuse to believe, but 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:42.160 that is what was. 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:44.040 The center really worried about net zero. 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:46.160 They don't care either way. This is the whole point. 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:48.120 So the mistake that both the left and the right 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:50.679 make on this issue, just as they make on indigenous issues, 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:53.720 is thinking that everybody else cares about them as much 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:55.680 as they do. One side cares about them in a 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:58.040 very very positive way, the other side cares about them 0:18:58.080 --> 0:18:59.560 in a very negative way, and you can swap them 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:02.399 around whatever. The point is, the vast majority in the people, 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.199 people of middle in the middle, do not give a 0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:07.800 rats And that is why when Peter Dutton and the 0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:10.320 Liberal Party started arguing about Welcomes to Country in the 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.080 last week of that campaign, I was just going, for 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.120 the love of God, it's already dead. 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:15.960 What are you doing? 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:17.280 That was my point. 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:19.800 We're talking about most people don't aren't marching in the 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.359 street for welcomes to Country or marching the street against 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.639 Welcome to Country. They just want a party that is 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:28.119 going to fix their kitchen table problems, and whichever party 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:30.920 has the most credibility, whichever party they believe can do that, 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:31.840 they will vote for. 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:33.159 They don't care what color it is. 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.639 And Peter Dutton lacked credibility and the Colors lack credibility 0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:40.320 in terms of their policy plans and the detail around it. 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.000 And at the same time they were talking about other stuff, 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:45.200 cultural issues that no one cared about. 0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:47.359 And that was my point is people don't really care 0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:49.480 about left and right, but they care about good policy 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:51.200 that it makes them feel like they're better off. And 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:53.359 if you can sell the message that by dropping it 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.159 zero you can make power bills lower, that's where you 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:57.760 go with it. But we'll see what they do. And 0:19:57.800 --> 0:19:59.240 of course they're still got to worry about whether the 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.960 Nats want to be coalition with them either, and that's 0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:05.400 one of the things that they will be asking about now. Joe, 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:08.560 you had a peace out in the Telly today talking 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.880 about exactly how much I know you can't believe I'm 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:15.040 giving you a g out of you, but talking about 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:17.959 exactly how much Labor hates the Greens. And you can 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:22.120 understand from many perspectives why, but your source said, when 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:24.600 a matter before the Senate is poised almost evenly, the 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:28.000 Greens are powerful for ten minutes. They can't create anything, 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.040 but they sure can kill things. And this will be 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:34.439 the question now that they have the absolute balance of 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.000 power in the Senate, what are they going to do 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:40.000 with it? And how does Labor work with them. 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:42.639 Well, it's not necessarily that the Greens have increased their power. 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.720 Labor has actually picked up Senate seats, So the fear 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:47.199 that I think people on the right has is that 0:20:47.280 --> 0:20:50.080 Labor just needs the Greens and nobody else, So there's 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:52.040 still a whole bunch of cross benches. And indeed, the 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:54.480 Coalition if they do not want the Greens to be 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:58.439 dictating policy terms to Labor, and I can promise you 0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:01.800 Labor is not Labor will tell them to go jump 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.000 more times than not. Then the Coalition can very simply 0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:06.840 do what it refused to do in the last Parliament 0:21:06.920 --> 0:21:10.080 and negotiate with Labor on those same bills to make 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:13.000 sure that they don't get LEFTI fied or GREENO fied, 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.760 or redified or tritified by the Greens, because the Greens 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:18.359 they're terrible negotiators anyway. 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:19.280 They are obstructionists. 0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:22.199 They did terrible damage by blocking the housing policy, and 0:21:22.240 --> 0:21:26.080 they are also a party that depends upon progress not 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:30.360 being made. And this is why Labor SMARTlab people absolutely 0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:30.840 despise them. 0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:32.320 People at the top of the party despise them. 0:21:32.359 --> 0:21:35.760 The PM despises them because all what they actually want 0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:39.760 is a permanent state where people can be upset angry 0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:41.880 about stuff, so they go out and protest and they 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:44.560 lodge their vote with a protest party. Any progress that 0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.480 actually gets paid hurts the Greens. So that's why they're 0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:51.359 so utterly disingenuine, disingenuous, and why I can promise you 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:53.399 that labor genuinely hates them. 0:21:53.480 --> 0:21:57.080 Now, Steve, we're getting the budget down your way in 0:21:57.240 --> 0:22:01.560 Victoria tomorrow, and then the new treasure of Jaqueline Simes, 0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:05.320 of course, who've famously got her staff to tell treasury 0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:08.680 staff not to use economic terms because she couldn't understand them. 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:11.080 So we know that it's all going to go really well, 0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:14.280 but you won't believe what they're trotting out now to say, Look, 0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:16.199 you've got to stick with us tag a over this. 0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:22.040 From the first of January next year, if kids under 0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:24.000 the age of eighteen, well, kids will be able to 0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:29.400 travel free anywhere across Victoria thanks to the responsible decision 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:33.960 making we have done as part of setting tomorrow's state budget. 0:22:35.480 --> 0:22:39.159 So we find out today that the debt won't have 0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:41.280 a two in front of it, so it'll be under 0:22:41.320 --> 0:22:44.520 two hundred billion, so that's fantastic. But we'll give the 0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:47.040 kids free public transport and that'll say Victoria. 0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:51.920 Steve, well, some of our Telvis Center, Allen and Jacqueline 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:55.960 Simes that kids don't pay to write on public transport anyway. 0:22:56.240 --> 0:22:59.159 I mean, that's all great to give them free. I 0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:02.320 catch trams and trains around all the time, and none 0:23:02.359 --> 0:23:04.679 of these kids pay. They don't tap their my key on. 0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:06.520 They just get on the tram and get off the 0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:08.919 other end. They wouldn't give a rats whether it was 0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:11.119 free or not, because they don't pay now and on 0:23:11.240 --> 0:23:14.040 the debt, I mean ten years ago, I looked this 0:23:14.160 --> 0:23:17.040 up for you today, Caleb. Ten years ago, the Victorian 0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:20.640 government debt in twenty fourteen fifteen was twenty two point 0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:25.240 three billion dollars. As of twenty twenty four to twenty 0:23:25.320 --> 0:23:28.960 five this year or twenty five twenty six, it's going 0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:29.439 to be. 0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:31.960 One hundred and sixty eight point five. 0:23:31.840 --> 0:23:34.320 Billion in ten years. 0:23:34.680 --> 0:23:35.280 Fantastic. 0:23:35.280 --> 0:23:37.760 Well, a quick little tip for the Victorian by the way, 0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:40.480 if you're going to deliver a budget handout to win 0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:42.600 the next election, try giving it to people who are 0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:43.560 old enough to vote. 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:48.960 I know, is it is a very good We'll hang 0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:52.560 on so no, no it's not, No, it's not. 0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:54.359 The pearents are the ones. 0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:57.800 That pay for this card that the kids currently have 0:23:57.840 --> 0:24:00.199 to pay for to catch the tram and the train. 0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:00.679 To school. 0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:03.920 It's about seven hundred bucks per family, but they don't 0:24:03.920 --> 0:24:04.520 pay anyone. 0:24:04.800 --> 0:24:06.000 I mean, you know, isn't that what you do with 0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:07.879 your pocket money. I was expected to do that with 0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:09.679 my pocket money if I wanted to get around on 0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:12.159 public transport. But I told this story last night on 0:24:12.240 --> 0:24:15.480 air that I was on a train from Warregal to 0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:20.600 Melbourne a few months ago and the inspector Bloke, well, 0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:23.880 I've got to make who lives in Warregor And Inspector 0:24:23.920 --> 0:24:27.080 Bloke comes down on the train and he says to 0:24:27.160 --> 0:24:30.479 these kids, you know, stop being so rowdy. And they 0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:32.760 said to him, look, we don't have Marque cards and 0:24:32.800 --> 0:24:35.320 he said, I know that, but please don't vape on 0:24:35.400 --> 0:24:40.199 my train. So that's where we've seen you. I think 0:24:40.280 --> 0:24:42.760 that's exactly that's where we seem to be get. Steve Joe, 0:24:42.800 --> 0:24:45.640 Thank you so much for your time. Now, the Prime 0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:48.040 Minister is back to his favorite past time, which is 0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:50.680 holding court with foreign leaders, this time over at the 0:24:50.720 --> 0:24:54.000 Pope's inauguration, the first Australian PM to go to the 0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:57.720 inaugural mass since we established diplomatic relations with the Holy 0:24:57.760 --> 0:25:00.119 See in the seventies. By the way, and our but 0:25:00.160 --> 0:25:03.280 easy clearly charmed the European Union because they're now keen 0:25:03.320 --> 0:25:06.399 to strike a new defense deal with Australia. He was 0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:10.200 European Commission President Ursula Vondaline meeting with Alban Easy. 0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:14.360 We do not only see you as a trading partner, 0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:16.800 but we see you as a strategic partner. 0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.000 We would be very pleased if. 0:25:18.800 --> 0:25:23.480 We could to develop such as security and Defense Partnership tool. 0:25:24.440 --> 0:25:26.760 To help break down what this is supposed to look like, 0:25:26.880 --> 0:25:29.159 what this deal might look like. I'm joined now by 0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:34.720 a Director of Strategic Analysis Australia, Michael Shubridge. Michael, based 0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:36.840 on what we've heard so far, and we know that 0:25:36.920 --> 0:25:39.080 the EU has done deals with a number of other 0:25:39.160 --> 0:25:42.959 nations recently, what would they be expecting of us and 0:25:43.000 --> 0:25:44.720 what should we be expecting of them? 0:25:46.720 --> 0:25:50.720 Well, Caleb, I think the EU's expectations are really very simple. 0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:55.160 They would be expecting Australia to have looked at what 0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:58.920 they agreed with Japan and South Korea recently, and they've 0:25:58.960 --> 0:26:02.840 just signed another defense and Security Corporation agreement with the 0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:07.520 UK and it's a broad framework that says let's work 0:26:07.560 --> 0:26:12.160 more closely together. The mystifying thing to me is that 0:26:12.200 --> 0:26:15.920 The Prime Minister seemed to be either very badly briefed 0:26:16.440 --> 0:26:19.160 or not have remembered what the brief would have told him, 0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:23.200 because he sounded like he was mystified by the whole thing, 0:26:23.240 --> 0:26:25.920 and it was at a very early stage. It's very 0:26:26.119 --> 0:26:30.000 likely that the text that the EU would propose would 0:26:30.040 --> 0:26:34.320 look almost exactly like the publicly available texts that they've 0:26:34.480 --> 0:26:38.440 signed with Japan and South Korea, just with replace all 0:26:38.640 --> 0:26:40.280 putting Australia instead. 0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:44.040 If that's the case, an elbow's not across it. I mean, 0:26:44.359 --> 0:26:46.919 what was he talking to them about. What was the 0:26:46.960 --> 0:26:49.280 point he went all the way there? Surely he went 0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:50.080 there to do a deal. 0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:55.479 Well, I think this is the problem really when he 0:26:55.520 --> 0:26:58.520 does these visits, he seems to think just having the 0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:02.320 meeting is the out come, and maybe agreeing to meet again. 0:27:02.440 --> 0:27:05.399 And I've certainly met plenty of diplomats in our Foreign 0:27:05.440 --> 0:27:10.919 Affairs department that think meetings are the outcome. But really, 0:27:11.440 --> 0:27:13.680 when the Prime Minister talked about it, he talked about 0:27:13.800 --> 0:27:19.480 maybe we have negotiations on it within NATO. Well, NATO 0:27:19.600 --> 0:27:23.000 is an entirely different organization to the EU. It just 0:27:23.080 --> 0:27:27.159 sounds disinterested in security. 0:27:26.800 --> 0:27:29.399 And also nothing to do with US. It should be 0:27:29.440 --> 0:27:32.600 noted I've often said that I hate meetings. I think 0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:35.919 that the preserve of people who want to look like 0:27:36.000 --> 0:27:38.760 they're being productive without actually being productive, because you can 0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:41.320 gasbag about stuff that could have just been put in 0:27:41.359 --> 0:27:45.280 an email. But to the broader defense policy hearing, you know, 0:27:45.760 --> 0:27:48.360 I guess we can't just rely on the US anymore. 0:27:48.480 --> 0:27:51.359 And of course the moves that Trump has made in 0:27:51.440 --> 0:27:55.840 recent months has forced outfits like the EU to look 0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:58.960 after themselves a little bit more and increase their spending. 0:27:59.080 --> 0:28:02.480 Same with the UK, etc. We're no different. 0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:07.280 Well, that's right, So that there could be some meat 0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:12.800 around this EO Australia Security Corporation as the EU starts 0:28:12.840 --> 0:28:15.919 spending one hundred and fifty billion euros and new fund 0:28:15.920 --> 0:28:19.399 they've just put together, that could be some opportunities for 0:28:19.480 --> 0:28:21.080 Australian defense companies. 0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:22.399 But I think we've got. 0:28:22.280 --> 0:28:27.080 To keep pretty low expectations about what Europe and Australia 0:28:27.160 --> 0:28:30.720 might do together. One reason that occurs to me why 0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:34.000 mister Albanezi was reluctant to even talk about this is 0:28:34.480 --> 0:28:37.200 if he had read the agreements that have been ended 0:28:37.200 --> 0:28:39.880 between the EU with Japan and South Korea. He would 0:28:39.920 --> 0:28:45.080 see that they're agreeing that really Russia and China are 0:28:45.120 --> 0:28:48.200 a common challenge for Europe and our part of the world, 0:28:48.600 --> 0:28:51.880 and he wants to run a mile from that characterization. 0:28:52.600 --> 0:28:54.920 Why would you run a mile from that characterize that? Well, 0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:58.239 we know why to pander to China, but honestly, if 0:28:58.320 --> 0:29:00.520 you want to protect your country, we can't run a 0:29:00.560 --> 0:29:03.200 mile from that characterization. We know it's going on. It's 0:29:03.200 --> 0:29:05.680 something we all have to stand up against. And how 0:29:05.720 --> 0:29:10.640 could we expect allies, be they in Europe or the US, 0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:14.360 or the UK or anyone else, to stand by us 0:29:14.880 --> 0:29:17.320 if we're not willing to acknowledge the same things that 0:29:17.360 --> 0:29:20.960 they are. Well, I agree with you, Caleb. 0:29:21.040 --> 0:29:26.520 And really, if mister Albanezi was thinking security was important 0:29:26.680 --> 0:29:30.040 and wanted to build a relationship with the EU, he 0:29:30.080 --> 0:29:33.800 could have pulled out a draft text where he had 0:29:33.880 --> 0:29:38.200 written Australia instead of Japan and said we'd be ready 0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:42.000 to sign this today. But instead we hear about it's 0:29:42.000 --> 0:29:44.480 at a very early stage and we'll have further chats 0:29:44.520 --> 0:29:46.720 and am I go on for some time. It's all 0:29:46.880 --> 0:29:50.000 just the way he behaved in his first term. If 0:29:50.000 --> 0:29:53.200 I can have meetings and more words with no outcomes. 0:29:53.440 --> 0:29:54.280 That's a good day. 0:29:55.000 --> 0:29:58.440 Just very quickly before we go, Michael, Speaking of meetings, 0:29:58.840 --> 0:30:01.600 Elbow also met with a lot of mis Zelenski and 0:30:02.080 --> 0:30:05.920 discussed Oscar Jenkins, of course, the Aussie who's been sentenced 0:30:06.040 --> 0:30:08.600 in Russia. What should we expect out of that. 0:30:11.160 --> 0:30:14.040 Well, I'll tell you what. If mister Abenezi could actually 0:30:14.080 --> 0:30:18.200 deliver the forty nine old tanks that we've promised to 0:30:18.240 --> 0:30:22.800 give Ukraine in October last year, he might get President 0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:25.560 Zelenski's attention and full cooperation. 0:30:25.760 --> 0:30:26.640 So I think that'd be a. 0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:29.640 Good thing for him to do. But really, there is 0:30:29.680 --> 0:30:33.320 some possibility that Oscar Jenkins could be rolled into a 0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:37.960 Ukraine Russia prisoner swap that happened with some British nationals 0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:41.680 earlier in the war. But I really think it's about 0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:46.120 engaging with Ukraine, supporting them and delivering on our promises 0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:48.840 like getting tanks there in under a year. 0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:52.160 Indeed, Michael, thank you so much for your time. Still 0:30:52.200 --> 0:30:55.560 to come. Labour Slam's criticism of their capital gains tax 0:30:55.680 --> 0:30:58.600 as a scare campaign, I'll tell you why that's ridiculous. 0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:02.240 But first, Joe Biden's cancer diagnosis since shock Waves through 0:31:02.280 --> 0:31:05.120 American politics. Kosher Garda will join me live next. 0:31:07.400 --> 0:31:07.600 Well. 0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:10.640 We learned today that former US President Joe Biden has 0:31:10.680 --> 0:31:14.200 been diagnosed with a quote unquote aggressive form of prostate 0:31:14.320 --> 0:31:18.120 cancer that spread to his bones. Donald Trump posted online 0:31:18.280 --> 0:31:21.120 Milania and I are saddened to hear about Joe Biden's 0:31:21.160 --> 0:31:25.080 recent medical diagnosis. We extend our warmest and best wishes 0:31:25.120 --> 0:31:27.920 to form a first Lady Jill Biden and the family, 0:31:28.000 --> 0:31:31.480 and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery. With me. 0:31:31.560 --> 0:31:35.280 Now is Sky and news contributor Kosher Gada Kosher. What's 0:31:35.320 --> 0:31:37.800 been the reaction across America to this news? 0:31:39.840 --> 0:31:42.880 Where to be douquieleb Certainly, as you said, it's shark 0:31:42.960 --> 0:31:46.240 waves around the country just because of the nature and 0:31:46.240 --> 0:31:50.240 elite stage of the diagnosis where it's metastasized for his bones. 0:31:50.720 --> 0:31:53.560 I think, you know, the first reaction is genuine sympathy, 0:31:53.880 --> 0:31:57.080 bipartisan words of support from Donald Trump as you just 0:31:57.080 --> 0:31:59.800 played there, to Kamala Harris and everyone in between. Because 0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:03.080 these kinds of events sadly are relatable to many people 0:32:03.120 --> 0:32:05.080 can sympathize with it on a human level, and it 0:32:05.120 --> 0:32:07.080 has a way I guess one silver lining is it 0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:09.360 has a way of bringing a very divided country together, 0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:11.720 if for a brief moment. The other side of it, 0:32:11.760 --> 0:32:15.200 of course, is that given who Biden was and is, 0:32:15.880 --> 0:32:18.160 naturally there is a political element to the story, and 0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:21.840 that is that this does further tarnish his legacy. For sure. 0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:23.800 This is going to be one more thing of how 0:32:24.040 --> 0:32:27.120 he's remembered that he had this and various health conditions 0:32:27.160 --> 0:32:29.160 festering when he decided to run, and everything that went 0:32:29.200 --> 0:32:32.640 down from there. It's raising questions about transparency, who knew what, 0:32:32.720 --> 0:32:35.560 when did they know it? And this wasn't kept or 0:32:35.600 --> 0:32:37.719 this was kept for the American people and the implications 0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:39.840 of that. And there's also a little bit around policy, 0:32:40.000 --> 0:32:41.840 not so much because of the cancer, but the cognitive 0:32:41.880 --> 0:32:45.320 decline on various documents that he signed, from executive orders 0:32:45.360 --> 0:32:49.480 to pardons. Do they have legal legitimacy is a question 0:32:49.560 --> 0:32:51.800 that people are raising whether or not anything comes of that. 0:32:51.880 --> 0:32:54.520 So it's certainly created a bit of a firestorm politically. 0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:56.160 In addition to the human aspect of. 0:32:56.120 --> 0:32:59.200 It, Well, you'd have decides far from a conspiracy theory 0:32:59.200 --> 0:33:03.120 to wonder why if he's been diagnosed with stage four 0:33:03.440 --> 0:33:07.720 prostate cancer now, so it's well advanced. So he absolutely 0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:11.640 had it towards the end of his presidency. You are 0:33:11.680 --> 0:33:14.280 the president of the United States, so you would have 0:33:14.400 --> 0:33:19.520 the best doctors and medical advice and whatever available to you. 0:33:20.000 --> 0:33:21.680 How did they not pick this up? 0:33:24.160 --> 0:33:27.480 Absolutely? And I think that is the elephant in the room. 0:33:28.360 --> 0:33:30.520 It's very hard to believe that they didn't because they're 0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:33.600 constantly being monitored, and obviously he was under the care 0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:36.520 of many doctors. There were Parkinson's doctors at the White 0:33:36.560 --> 0:33:38.959 House logs show had been visiting for a while. Obviously 0:33:39.000 --> 0:33:41.680 he would have been having regular physicals as well. So 0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:45.680 I think that is an inconvenient reality that is out there, 0:33:45.720 --> 0:33:48.680 and it is the Democrat Party and the media, who 0:33:48.680 --> 0:33:51.280 are already suffering from all time low levels of trust, 0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:53.760 have certainly taken a big hit tonight as the story 0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:54.680 continues to unfold. 0:33:55.040 --> 0:33:57.560 Indeed, and it's sad as well because of all the cancers, 0:33:57.560 --> 0:34:00.280 to have prostate cancer, if it's found early, is very 0:34:00.280 --> 0:34:03.680 easy one to treat these days. Now, Israel seems open 0:34:03.760 --> 0:34:06.120 to ending the war with Hamas, that is, if the 0:34:06.240 --> 0:34:09.319 terrorist organization agrees to put down their arms and going 0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.320 to egg style, and it's a stack shift from Nitan 0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:16.160 Yahoo because he's previously said that Israel will keep fighting 0:34:16.360 --> 0:34:23.799 until Hamas is completely extinct. But they've lifted the aid band, 0:34:23.880 --> 0:34:26.759 so there's there's food and drink and whatever going into 0:34:26.800 --> 0:34:29.560 the place now, and they seem to be softening their 0:34:29.560 --> 0:34:30.200 tone a little. 0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:35.400 Seems to be that way, though twenty four hours is 0:34:35.440 --> 0:34:38.279 a lifetime in a war zone, so much more wood 0:34:38.280 --> 0:34:41.239 to chop. Still, there's two dynamics happening in real time. 0:34:41.320 --> 0:34:46.200 So one, the Israelis have intensified their military operation, both 0:34:46.239 --> 0:34:49.120 with the ground game and air strikes. Several Hamas leaders 0:34:49.160 --> 0:34:52.640 reportedly were taken out over the weekend, and coupling that 0:34:52.719 --> 0:34:55.560 with the blockhead of food and water and everything else 0:34:55.719 --> 0:34:59.319 is really putting maximum pressure on them. And simultaneously, the 0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:02.799 diplomatic its continue to be underway, though they haven't always 0:35:02.840 --> 0:35:05.759 been successful. That is continuing with the US playing a 0:35:05.840 --> 0:35:09.520 mediation role and other actors from Europe and else where 0:35:09.520 --> 0:35:12.880 are coming in there and trying to basically negotiate primarily 0:35:12.920 --> 0:35:15.920 release of the remaining hostages in exchange for a ceasefire. 0:35:16.160 --> 0:35:18.560 So those two dynamics, it sounds like, at least based 0:35:18.560 --> 0:35:21.000 on reports, there's been a bit of a breakthrough where 0:35:21.040 --> 0:35:24.200 there are certain restrictions that Hamas was not letting up 0:35:24.239 --> 0:35:27.000 on which now they are, and they've agreed to these 0:35:27.040 --> 0:35:30.239 talks in Qatar with no preconditions. And if true, then 0:35:30.239 --> 0:35:33.080 that looks like hopefully this thing is moving, the needle 0:35:33.160 --> 0:35:35.279 is moving in the right direction and moving towards some 0:35:35.360 --> 0:35:39.480 sort of seizing of this conflict, because certainly it's gone 0:35:39.520 --> 0:35:41.960 on for far longer than anybody. 0:35:41.560 --> 0:35:44.279 Wants very quickly kosher. The breaking news out of the 0:35:44.400 --> 0:35:46.560 UK ton Art is that the European Union in the 0:35:46.680 --> 0:35:49.560 UK have agreed to a post bricks at what they're 0:35:49.560 --> 0:35:53.480 calling reset deal, which appears to encompass security and defense. 0:35:53.520 --> 0:35:55.880 But the major deal, or the magic part of it 0:35:55.880 --> 0:35:58.440 that's being lauded, is a twelve year agreement to allow 0:35:58.520 --> 0:36:02.360 phishing access for a boats in UK waters. Many people 0:36:02.480 --> 0:36:04.640 might be asking what was the point of Brexit. 0:36:06.800 --> 0:36:09.839 The Brexit heres certainly are asking that and are not 0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:13.600 very happy in general, but the fishing trade in general, software, 0:36:13.600 --> 0:36:15.640 border checks, travel, all of that, and then the big 0:36:15.640 --> 0:36:19.160 thing is a European Court of Justice. The ECG apparently 0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:22.040 has some sort of sphere of influence still on domestic 0:36:22.080 --> 0:36:24.759 matters that's the one that's riled up many people on 0:36:24.760 --> 0:36:27.200 the Brexit side. I think Nigel Farage and the Reform 0:36:27.200 --> 0:36:29.920 Party are certainly going to use this to their advantage 0:36:29.960 --> 0:36:32.799 and push that it's sort of a surrender and that 0:36:32.880 --> 0:36:34.920 the deal should be much different from that, and that's 0:36:34.960 --> 0:36:37.160 going to have a big play in their political cycle. 0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:39.319 And they're already doing well, so I'm sure they won't 0:36:39.360 --> 0:36:41.600 mind a bit more ammunition. Kosher, thank you so much. 0:36:41.600 --> 0:36:44.719 As always still to come, Labour slam's criticism of their 0:36:44.760 --> 0:36:48.400 capital gains text as a scare campaign. I mean seriously 0:36:49.040 --> 0:36:55.480 more coming up with the panel after this, plenty of 0:36:55.480 --> 0:36:57.279 more to get through, so let's jump straight into it 0:36:57.320 --> 0:36:59.760 with my next panel. A Journey Media is Lisa Godard 0:36:59.800 --> 0:37:04.520 and Strategies director Cameron Milner. Now Susan Lee had an 0:37:04.600 --> 0:37:07.719 article in The Australian over the weekend mapping out what 0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:10.880 her time as opposition leader will look like and it 0:37:11.000 --> 0:37:13.080 was pretty light of policy, but I guess that's to 0:37:13.120 --> 0:37:15.799 be expected when so much is still being debated within 0:37:15.880 --> 0:37:17.960 the party. They have quite a few fights to have. 0:37:18.040 --> 0:37:21.080 Of course, I pointed out Garth Hamilton was saying earlier 0:37:21.360 --> 0:37:24.120 and it did give a few hints those such as 0:37:24.120 --> 0:37:27.799 this paragraph. We have lost the trust of women, and 0:37:27.840 --> 0:37:30.640 we have not convinced younger Australians that we have a 0:37:30.680 --> 0:37:33.360 plan to provide a fair go for their generation. We 0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:36.040 need to focus on renewing the compact we have had 0:37:36.360 --> 0:37:39.000 with Australians who live in cities, helping them deal with 0:37:39.040 --> 0:37:43.360 a rapidly changing economy and rising prices. And Cameron, she's 0:37:43.520 --> 0:37:44.640 quite right on. 0:37:44.680 --> 0:37:45.160 All of that. 0:37:45.640 --> 0:37:48.200 But the question is do you go down the road 0:37:48.200 --> 0:37:50.960 of well, we'll stick with knit zero and nothing much 0:37:51.000 --> 0:37:53.560 will change, or do you actually say we need to 0:37:53.600 --> 0:37:55.960 have a shakeup to make it look like we're not 0:37:56.000 --> 0:37:57.000 the same as the other one. 0:37:58.600 --> 0:38:00.839 Well, I think the thing too is words have kind 0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:03.319 of echoed some of men's he's forgotten people. I think 0:38:03.320 --> 0:38:05.120 there was a bit of power battlers for the verbs 0:38:05.120 --> 0:38:05.760 in there as well. 0:38:05.960 --> 0:38:07.719 So the Liberals are getting back on track. 0:38:07.840 --> 0:38:10.120 If they're going to have a huge internal fight and 0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:12.440 talk about themselves next three years, they'll lose the next election. 0:38:12.760 --> 0:38:14.800 If they get back to being the party of blow taxation, 0:38:15.160 --> 0:38:18.400 individual freedoms and as John Howard said over the weekend, aspiration, 0:38:18.880 --> 0:38:20.160 then I think they're going to be back on track, 0:38:20.200 --> 0:38:22.279 and she's talking that to language. She didn't put Alba 0:38:22.360 --> 0:38:24.600 under a lot of early pressure going forward. 0:38:25.440 --> 0:38:27.760 So she talks about having lost the trust of women. 0:38:28.360 --> 0:38:31.680 But the question is is how do you specifically win 0:38:31.840 --> 0:38:34.880 back women. You've now got a female leader, But I 0:38:34.920 --> 0:38:37.640 don't know that that in and of itself encourages women 0:38:38.040 --> 0:38:41.520 to vote for you. In some cases, you might say 0:38:41.560 --> 0:38:45.120 that it actually counts against you. Certainly anecdotally, there are 0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:48.000 plenty of women who'll say that, how do you actually 0:38:48.640 --> 0:38:49.920 regain the trust of women? 0:38:52.040 --> 0:38:54.279 Caleb, You and I can answer that tonight. We'll have 0:38:54.360 --> 0:38:56.759 jobs with the Liberal Party by tomorrow morning. What I 0:38:56.800 --> 0:38:59.799 think is that they really need to start to look 0:38:59.800 --> 0:38:59.960 at it. 0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:02.160 It's not just this women issue. 0:39:02.239 --> 0:39:04.719 We all have cost of living problems, whether you're male 0:39:04.840 --> 0:39:06.680 or female. You were out there at the grocery store. 0:39:06.719 --> 0:39:09.560 You were all suffering at that price points. I just 0:39:09.600 --> 0:39:11.920 don't think they hammered home that message hard enough and 0:39:11.960 --> 0:39:14.759 this idea. Look, it's great that Susan Lee is now 0:39:14.800 --> 0:39:16.520 the first female leader of the Liberal Party. 0:39:16.640 --> 0:39:16.960 Great. 0:39:17.360 --> 0:39:19.600 I don't believe in quotas. I don't think that we 0:39:19.640 --> 0:39:22.080 should rejoice at the fact that we're celebrating this based 0:39:22.120 --> 0:39:25.279 on gender. However, she is there now. Whether that will 0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:27.920 be a turning point for voters and female voters, I 0:39:27.920 --> 0:39:29.680 don't know if it will. If you look to the US, 0:39:29.840 --> 0:39:32.160 if you look at the votes that Kamala Harris was 0:39:32.160 --> 0:39:35.880 getting compared to Biden, she had fewer female voters backing 0:39:35.920 --> 0:39:36.239 her in. 0:39:36.360 --> 0:39:39.040 So I don't know how much how. 0:39:39.000 --> 0:39:40.680 Much you can back in this idea that you put 0:39:40.680 --> 0:39:43.000 a woman in the leadership position and all of the 0:39:43.040 --> 0:39:45.200 women are going to follow behind like the pied piper 0:39:45.440 --> 0:39:47.920 and everyone behind her. I just don't think it's enough. 0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:49.840 They do need to come up with some policies that 0:39:49.960 --> 0:39:52.080 actually cut through and y's what she has said on 0:39:52.080 --> 0:39:55.680 the weekend. Great, but it is such high level messaging 0:39:55.760 --> 0:39:57.680 that if they don't find a way of making the 0:39:57.719 --> 0:40:00.120 average Australia and go, you know what that relates to 0:40:00.160 --> 0:40:01.640 me and I can see how that will change my 0:40:01.680 --> 0:40:04.239 life for the better, then they will stay out for 0:40:04.280 --> 0:40:06.320 the next three six years or more. 0:40:06.560 --> 0:40:08.920 And you know, I tend to agree with Peter Kreedlin, 0:40:08.960 --> 0:40:11.720 of course, who said multiple times, look that the issues 0:40:11.719 --> 0:40:14.640 that women care about are fundamentally the same issues that 0:40:14.840 --> 0:40:17.200 men care about, because we're all living in the same world, 0:40:17.280 --> 0:40:19.480 and we have the same households and the same families, 0:40:19.800 --> 0:40:22.360 so we all see the same things, and there's probably 0:40:22.400 --> 0:40:25.000 an argument to be made. You know, all the people 0:40:25.000 --> 0:40:26.720 out there don't come for me for saying it, because 0:40:26.719 --> 0:40:28.840 it is true. I'm not saying that it should be 0:40:28.880 --> 0:40:32.080 otherwise or whatever. But the reality is that women still 0:40:32.120 --> 0:40:34.960 do perform a lot more of the household duties than 0:40:35.040 --> 0:40:37.160 men do, and so you could make the argument that 0:40:37.239 --> 0:40:39.680 things like cost of living women would be even more 0:40:39.760 --> 0:40:43.560 acutely aware of because they're looking at those numbers every day. Anyway, 0:40:44.280 --> 0:40:45.759 if I can work it out, or anyone else can 0:40:45.800 --> 0:40:47.880 work it out, we'll see where we go. Now, Cameron, 0:40:47.880 --> 0:40:50.040 you're in the UK right now. You've written in The 0:40:50.160 --> 0:40:53.480 Nightly today that the UK Labor Party is a warning 0:40:53.560 --> 0:40:56.799 for Australia's Labor Party and also a ray of hope 0:40:56.840 --> 0:40:58.120 for the Liberals. Why is that. 0:41:00.120 --> 0:41:03.600 Kis Starmer and Anthony Abanze both scored about two thirds 0:41:03.600 --> 0:41:06.279 of the parliament in the most recent elections ten months 0:41:06.360 --> 0:41:10.880 on Starma though is panicking, he's soiling the sheets of government. 0:41:11.040 --> 0:41:14.000 I wrote my column today because reform went a VI 0:41:14.080 --> 0:41:16.440 election and one about six hundred and fifty seats out 0:41:16.480 --> 0:41:19.800 of sixteen hundred in local councils. So reform Nigel Faraja's 0:41:19.840 --> 0:41:22.560 party from the right has taken labor vote and taken 0:41:22.600 --> 0:41:25.600 conservative vote and built themselves as a second horse against labor. 0:41:25.840 --> 0:41:27.839 There are people in labor now talking about not being 0:41:27.880 --> 0:41:29.480 a government for two or three terms. 0:41:29.600 --> 0:41:30.480 They're talking about. 0:41:30.239 --> 0:41:33.240 Losing in four years time because red wall labor seats 0:41:33.239 --> 0:41:35.719 are going to reform and Kis Starmer is seen as 0:41:35.719 --> 0:41:38.319 someone who's weak and not up to it. That sounds 0:41:38.360 --> 0:41:40.920 familiar probably to a lot of viewers with Albanese as well. 0:41:41.040 --> 0:41:44.520 So the lesson for labor isn't it how many seats 0:41:44.560 --> 0:41:47.480 you won only two weeks ago. It's what voters think 0:41:47.520 --> 0:41:49.720 of you on a daily basis. You'll lose the trust 0:41:49.719 --> 0:41:51.400 of voters. You're going to lose the next election. 0:41:51.840 --> 0:41:55.400 Quite right now. The super tax. Newly minted Assistant treasure 0:41:55.480 --> 0:41:58.160 Daniel Malino has been trying to sell the policy. He 0:41:58.160 --> 0:42:00.440 says that he doesn't affect that many people. 0:42:01.840 --> 0:42:04.240 Well, I think at the heart of it, we're talking 0:42:04.280 --> 0:42:08.759 about accounts that have gone above a certain threshold, very 0:42:08.840 --> 0:42:12.200 very large accounts, a very small slither of accounts, and 0:42:12.239 --> 0:42:15.800 so I think what we really got here is whether 0:42:15.920 --> 0:42:20.959 or not those accounts should receive full concessional treatment or 0:42:21.000 --> 0:42:23.440 slightly less concessional treatment. 0:42:23.920 --> 0:42:26.600 And DEPITYPM Richard Marles has even gone as far as 0:42:26.640 --> 0:42:29.680 to call criticism of the policy a smear campaign. 0:42:30.920 --> 0:42:34.759 It was taken to the Australian people within the last month, So, 0:42:35.120 --> 0:42:37.759 I mean what we've seen here is the Liberals, in 0:42:38.080 --> 0:42:41.279 a desperate attempt to find something to talk about, run 0:42:41.600 --> 0:42:44.520 a smear campaign in relation to this. But fundamentally, this 0:42:44.600 --> 0:42:47.800 is a policy which has been it is something. 0:42:47.600 --> 0:42:48.120 Period of time. 0:42:49.239 --> 0:42:53.440 Oh, desperate smear campaign. The reality is it's not indexed. 0:42:53.640 --> 0:42:55.640 They could index it if they wanted to, but they're 0:42:55.640 --> 0:42:58.000 not going to index it. So the three million dollars, 0:42:58.080 --> 0:42:59.640 as we know, a twenty two year old today on 0:42:59.640 --> 0:43:01.440 an average wage, you throw on an average wage for 0:43:01.440 --> 0:43:03.680 the rest of their life, Lisa will have three million 0:43:03.680 --> 0:43:06.319 dollars in this souper by the time they are sixty four. 0:43:06.680 --> 0:43:09.719 If it was really about being fair, it indicts it. 0:43:09.840 --> 0:43:11.280 You can't call it a smear campaign. 0:43:13.280 --> 0:43:15.280 No. And the way they're getting through with this messaging 0:43:15.360 --> 0:43:17.040 is to put in us and them, So don't worry 0:43:17.040 --> 0:43:18.560 about it. It's just the rich end of town. It's 0:43:18.560 --> 0:43:20.640 the top end of town. Average Josies don't need to 0:43:20.640 --> 0:43:22.960 worry about it. The smear campaign should have come from 0:43:22.960 --> 0:43:25.719 the Liberal Party during the election campaign. That's when they 0:43:25.760 --> 0:43:28.560 should have made this front and center and explained to 0:43:28.640 --> 0:43:30.839 the younger voters. So they're trying to win over, this 0:43:30.920 --> 0:43:33.440 is how this will impact you as you put your 0:43:33.440 --> 0:43:35.920 money into supernow by the time you retire, this is 0:43:35.960 --> 0:43:36.880 how this will impact you. 0:43:36.920 --> 0:43:37.600 But they didn't do it. 0:43:37.640 --> 0:43:39.719 They didn't play the long game and explain it to 0:43:39.719 --> 0:43:41.680 the younger voters that they need to win across. And 0:43:41.680 --> 0:43:43.560 so right now Miles can stand there and say, well, 0:43:43.880 --> 0:43:45.799 you know you're throwing a mud but really there's nothing 0:43:45.800 --> 0:43:46.600 you can do to stop it. 0:43:47.200 --> 0:43:49.520 Cameron very quickly, Ol. 0:43:49.520 --> 0:43:51.479 Look, I agree with Lisa entirely. This is the scare 0:43:51.520 --> 0:43:54.560 campaign the Liberal Party missed. This is Labour's big new 0:43:54.640 --> 0:43:56.680 tax on savings and it should have been a huge 0:43:56.680 --> 0:43:59.960 scare campaign. And for the Corio neecapit it be crying foul. 0:44:00.200 --> 0:44:02.000 I mean it could meet. I mean, this guy's finishing 0:44:02.000 --> 0:44:05.000 off his industrial mates, so he's playing it pretty hard anyway. 0:44:05.120 --> 0:44:07.279 But no, this is a Liberal scare campaign that should 0:44:07.280 --> 0:44:09.400 have been in the election and Lisa's absolutely. 0:44:09.080 --> 0:44:12.279 Right, Lisa Cameron, thank you for your time. Don't go 0:44:12.320 --> 0:44:15.200 anywhere a cash strap. Victorian government still loose with the 0:44:15.280 --> 0:44:17.960 check book ahead of tomorrow's budget. Will take a look 0:44:17.960 --> 0:44:21.000 at that with Saxon Davidson from the Institute of Public Affairs. 0:44:24.920 --> 0:44:28.759 The seat of Bradfield in Sydney, formerly held by Paul 0:44:28.760 --> 0:44:31.080 Fletcher for the Liberal Party have to go to a 0:44:31.120 --> 0:44:33.759 recount now is less than one hundred votes in it. 0:44:33.840 --> 0:44:37.040 This is how we called it for Nicolette Buller on yesterday. 0:44:38.360 --> 0:44:39.800 There are no votes left. 0:44:39.880 --> 0:44:43.880 My caveat on this is that in this seat we 0:44:44.040 --> 0:44:46.680 can still see Deesel CAPTAREI and winning on a recount, 0:44:46.680 --> 0:44:49.239 but all the votes in so we're saying. 0:44:49.120 --> 0:44:51.280 Nicolett Buller, she's in front. 0:44:51.680 --> 0:44:53.720 It's a game at the moment for climate two hundred. 0:44:54.920 --> 0:44:57.720 So let the recount begin, but it could be another 0:44:57.760 --> 0:45:00.080 Liberal seat to the Teals. Let's return to Victoria. There 0:45:00.160 --> 0:45:02.920 is budget which is being delivered tomorrow by the Labor government. 0:45:03.000 --> 0:45:05.600 For more analysis, I'm joined now by research fellow at 0:45:05.600 --> 0:45:09.400 the Institute of Public Affairs, Saxon Davidson and Saxon Now 0:45:09.400 --> 0:45:13.120 apparently there's going to be a surplus posted, So that's fantastic, 0:45:13.160 --> 0:45:16.280 that's lovely. We've been reassured that debt will not exceed 0:45:16.320 --> 0:45:19.279 two hundred billion dollars given the forward estimates last year, 0:45:19.560 --> 0:45:21.759 or one hundred and eighty eight billion dollars. So that's 0:45:21.880 --> 0:45:24.720 terribly reassuring too, isn't it. And my tongue is firmly 0:45:24.760 --> 0:45:25.239 in my check. 0:45:29.040 --> 0:45:34.680 Well, this surplus is almost certainly an illusion because the 0:45:34.719 --> 0:45:37.520 calculations for this surplus will not include any of the 0:45:37.600 --> 0:45:42.520 various boondoggles spending on infrastructure projects, most prominently the suburban 0:45:42.840 --> 0:45:46.280 rail loop. So no, I'm not reassured in the slicest 0:45:46.320 --> 0:45:50.120 about the financial situation Victoria finds itself in what. 0:45:50.160 --> 0:45:52.799 Is surprise, And of course there is more spending in 0:45:52.840 --> 0:45:56.759 this budget, things like free public transport for kids, which 0:45:56.800 --> 0:45:58.440 is odd because you know, that's the kind of thing 0:45:58.440 --> 0:46:00.759 that you would expect to maybe try out as an 0:46:00.800 --> 0:46:03.840 election policy. But they're a year and a half away 0:46:04.320 --> 0:46:07.400 from a state election and they're already throwing this stuff 0:46:07.400 --> 0:46:10.239 out the Allen government. Does that indicate that they may 0:46:10.280 --> 0:46:10.800 be worried? 0:46:13.480 --> 0:46:16.080 I think it shows just how desperate this government is. 0:46:16.160 --> 0:46:18.520 We saw a very similar policy from the Miles government 0:46:18.520 --> 0:46:22.080 in Queensland just before they lost to the LMP. And 0:46:22.160 --> 0:46:24.880 this government is under pressure considering that they are behind 0:46:24.920 --> 0:46:27.520 in the polls, and by all reports and rumors they 0:46:27.560 --> 0:46:31.040 are under internal pressure from a potential spill as well. 0:46:31.040 --> 0:46:34.360 Indeed, and the difficulty here is, of course, it's basically 0:46:34.400 --> 0:46:36.560 impossible for Labor to get the budget back on track. 0:46:36.800 --> 0:46:38.840 Even if you had a change of state government. With 0:46:39.320 --> 0:46:42.279 debt hurdling towards two hundred billion dollars, how are you 0:46:42.400 --> 0:46:43.560 ever going to undo that? 0:46:46.440 --> 0:46:50.640 It would require drastic change cuts to government wide spending, 0:46:50.760 --> 0:46:55.120 not just what we're seeing in the surplus that will 0:46:55.120 --> 0:46:58.120 be announcing the budget tomorrow. We had the IPA released 0:46:58.120 --> 0:47:00.279 to Rapport a couple of years back, calling for one 0:47:00.320 --> 0:47:03.680 percent all of government spending reduction until the budget is 0:47:03.719 --> 0:47:07.560 and structural surplus. But until that happens, I believe that 0:47:07.600 --> 0:47:10.040 the budget in Victoria will be in structural decline. 0:47:10.280 --> 0:47:14.160 Now, Labour's Productivity Commission is investigating what lowering the company 0:47:14.200 --> 0:47:16.480 tax rate would do to Australia. You know, it's an 0:47:16.480 --> 0:47:20.200 effort to kick start the shocking productivity growth we have. 0:47:20.800 --> 0:47:23.480 We have one of the highest corporate tax rates in 0:47:23.520 --> 0:47:26.920 the world. At thirty percent, I can't see an argument 0:47:27.040 --> 0:47:30.839 not to lower it. 0:47:30.840 --> 0:47:33.800 It would be a small and positive step into increasing 0:47:33.800 --> 0:47:35.640 business investment here in Australia. 0:47:35.719 --> 0:47:37.319 But I mean, the truth of it is that there 0:47:37.400 --> 0:47:37.840 is far. 0:47:37.760 --> 0:47:41.600 Too much red tape for businesses to be confident to 0:47:41.640 --> 0:47:45.680 invest in Australia and increase productivity. And this lowering of 0:47:45.719 --> 0:47:48.640 the corporate tax rate may just be replaced with this 0:47:48.760 --> 0:47:51.680 incoming super tax, which will be a huge halting to 0:47:51.960 --> 0:47:55.839 individual investment into Australia. So I believe that there's too 0:47:55.920 --> 0:47:58.359 much red tape and too many other taxes that could 0:47:58.400 --> 0:48:00.800 be incoming for productive to increase. 0:48:01.000 --> 0:48:03.600 It's a good point. I've always thought that the less 0:48:03.640 --> 0:48:05.600 you ask for, the more you will get. Surely it 0:48:05.600 --> 0:48:11.360 would attract more business to Australia. It almost certainly would. 0:48:11.880 --> 0:48:15.000 But there are very there are very much more things 0:48:15.000 --> 0:48:18.359 that could be done after this if Australia wants to 0:48:18.360 --> 0:48:21.200 increase its productivity, like Jim Chalmers said the day after 0:48:21.239 --> 0:48:25.200 the election, but without further change, I doubt that that 0:48:25.280 --> 0:48:29.360 will happen even after a corporate a corporate tax removal 0:48:29.560 --> 0:48:30.480 or decrease. 0:48:31.000 --> 0:48:33.080 Saxon, thank you so much for your time, and you 0:48:33.120 --> 0:48:35.359 know Once we've dealt with corporate text, we should took 0:48:35.360 --> 0:48:37.359 about the rest of the tech system as well. I mean, 0:48:37.400 --> 0:48:40.359 Brad could creep again. Why is this stuff that they 0:48:40.360 --> 0:48:43.040 didn't talk about during the election campaign, the liberals that is. 0:48:43.200 --> 0:48:45.279 That's all I've got time for today. Up next, Paul 0:48:45.320 --> 0:48:46.439 Murray Live Sticker Round.