WEBVTT - Is now the time for Albo to be bold?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. This

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<v Speaker 1>week Australians will hit with another reminder that the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of living crisis isn't over and the government's room to

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<v Speaker 1>move is narrow and fast. And it just rate rises

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<v Speaker 1>sharpened the pressure on Anthony Alberanezi and Jim Charmbers. Just

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<v Speaker 1>as a federal budget looms, the government is now forced

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<v Speaker 1>to weigh up expectations of economic reform versus political risk. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 1>the opposition is unraveling in plain sight, the coalition split,

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<v Speaker 1>with the Nationals relegated to the cross bench. Today Press

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<v Speaker 1>Gallery veteran pau Bon Jorno and how exposed the government

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<v Speaker 1>really is, how bold it can afford to be, and

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<v Speaker 1>how the opposition's collapse is reshaping the political contest. It's Saturday,

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<v Speaker 1>February seven, Paul, great to see you again. Let's start

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<v Speaker 1>with interest rates. This week's rate rise is a headache

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<v Speaker 1>for a lot of Australians, but also for Anthony Albanezi

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<v Speaker 1>and Jim Charmers. How much pressure does this hike put

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<v Speaker 1>on the government.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's the biggest challenge to the credentials

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<v Speaker 2>of the Albanesi government. The management of the economy since

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<v Speaker 2>they were elected almost four years ago. Because remember at

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<v Speaker 2>the time of the election we were being told and

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<v Speaker 2>there was evidence at the time that inflation had been tamed,

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<v Speaker 2>and the claims of the Prime Minister and the Treasure

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<v Speaker 2>was that would turned the corner. Well, these numbers show

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<v Speaker 2>that the Australian economies turned a corner.

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<v Speaker 3>We're turning the corner.

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<v Speaker 2>The economic figures. The intervening six months have seen a

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<v Speaker 2>dramatic revision that has really undermined the assumptions and projections

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<v Speaker 2>of Treasury and the Reserve Bank, and we've seen these

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<v Speaker 2>this week with the Reserve Bank having a big rethink.

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<v Speaker 2>Well the first time in more than two years, mortgage

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<v Speaker 2>holders are this morning counting the cost of a great

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<v Speaker 2>hike the Reserve Bank. Now, I know this is not

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<v Speaker 2>the news that Australians with mortgages want to hear, but

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<v Speaker 2>it is the right thing for the economy. And of

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<v Speaker 2>course that means that the government has been put completely

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<v Speaker 2>on the back foot now and as it were, has

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<v Speaker 2>to reset. So, as Jim Chalmers said in a number

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<v Speaker 2>of interviews and in Parliament, whatever the political argument, and

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<v Speaker 2>there's a big one between you know, the government the

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<v Speaker 2>opposition and others. This really is hurting three million mortgage holders,

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<v Speaker 2>and not only mortgage holders, people who are borrowing, small

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<v Speaker 2>business and all of that. The only consolation I think

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<v Speaker 2>Labor has. I was speaking to one of the cabinet

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<v Speaker 2>ministers and he said, well, look, the problem for Susan

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<v Speaker 2>Lee and Ted O'Brien, hers shadow treasurer, is that they

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<v Speaker 2>and this has massed in all the opinion polling and

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<v Speaker 2>the shambles that they're in, they have no real credibility.

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<v Speaker 2>As the minister said to me, he said, well, look,

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<v Speaker 2>there is no doubt there are real challenges out there

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<v Speaker 2>and people are really hurting, but nobody believes the Libs

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<v Speaker 2>have got the answers.

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<v Speaker 1>There are predictions of at least one more rise this year,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've also got the federal budget coming up where

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<v Speaker 1>the government will be under scrutiny over spending. How dangerous

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<v Speaker 1>is this territory for the government, What sort of things

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<v Speaker 1>will they be looking the cat?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's the perennial question, and it does presume that

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<v Speaker 2>everybody believes that the government spending is bad by definition.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, it's almost a meme that Labour's political opponents

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<v Speaker 2>have been using basically for the last hundred years or more.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think the experience of the pandemic particularly was

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<v Speaker 2>that people do expect the government to look after them,

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<v Speaker 2>even the ones who say, or you're spending too much,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's all right if you spend on me. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think we've got to recalibrate just a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>that argument. But coming back to your point, yes, the

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<v Speaker 2>government does need to be able to demons straight that

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<v Speaker 2>it is not, as the Liberals claim, spending like a

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<v Speaker 2>drunken sailor that it is spending wisely, that it is

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<v Speaker 2>spending in a way that amereli orates the impact on

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<v Speaker 2>the standard of living of Australians. And one would hope,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is of course the challenge of the upcoming

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<v Speaker 2>budget that it does do things, maybe with taxation, maybe

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<v Speaker 2>with the way the government operates, that will actually restore

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<v Speaker 2>the standard of living that's taken a pretty big hit

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<v Speaker 2>in recent years.

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<v Speaker 1>Speaking of taxation, it's been reported that the government is

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<v Speaker 1>looking to slash the capital gains tax discount in lieu

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<v Speaker 1>of an effective opposition. At the moment, it should be

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<v Speaker 1>easy enough to do and they are looking to be bolder.

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<v Speaker 1>But how difficult is it for governments to take away

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<v Speaker 1>a benefit that is firmly embedded.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's politically, it's extremely difficult. But people say, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>every time Labor says it wants to do something on

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<v Speaker 2>negative gearing capital gains tax, it loses an election. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>from opposition. There is a huge difference between a government

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<v Speaker 2>being able to bring in a reform that it can

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<v Speaker 2>manage and design and an opposition saying, first of all,

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<v Speaker 2>vote for us, trust us to get into government, and

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<v Speaker 2>then trust us when we're in government that we will

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<v Speaker 2>do this reform. And given the political capital that Albanese

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<v Speaker 2>has also by default also by the default that his

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<v Speaker 2>political opponents are a shambles, you would think that the

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<v Speaker 2>sort of risk historically that these reforms generate is more

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<v Speaker 2>than manageable. The Parliamentary Budget Office, at the request of

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<v Speaker 2>the Australian Greens, looked at this and it found that

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<v Speaker 2>the cost of this concession for capital gains tax discount

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<v Speaker 2>is going to be in the order of two hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and sixty billion dollars over the next ten years and

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<v Speaker 2>the main beneficiaries are the top one percent the richest

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<v Speaker 2>people in Australia are the main beneficiaries now, surely the

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<v Speaker 2>government can argue in this regard as it did with

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<v Speaker 2>the Stage three tax cuts. Yes, there will be losers

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<v Speaker 2>with this reform, but there are people who can afford

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<v Speaker 2>to lose something, and they certainly won't be losing.

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<v Speaker 1>Everything coming up? Could an alliance between the Nationals and

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation be the next twist in the coalition saga?

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<v Speaker 1>Paul just how brave Albanezi will be his contingent on

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<v Speaker 1>if and when the opposition sorts itself out. How extraordinary

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<v Speaker 1>was it the sea the Nats relegated to the cross

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<v Speaker 1>bench in Parliament this week.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it was utterly extraordinary. In fact, the Leader of

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<v Speaker 2>the House, Tony Burke said, you'd have to go back

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<v Speaker 2>almost one hundred years to see something like we were

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<v Speaker 2>seeing now where the cross Bench had as many members

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<v Speaker 2>on it as the official opposition. That's a situation that

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<v Speaker 2>we've now got and how long it'll last is anybody's guess.

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<v Speaker 2>But the indications are that while Susan Lee remains Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>leader and David Little proud Nationals leader, we're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to see a reproachemont anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 1>They're constructed, they're ongoing, and we'll keep working through it.

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<v Speaker 2>They were friendly, they were constructed, we agreed to keep talking.

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<v Speaker 2>So look, this does, by the way, Daniel put a

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<v Speaker 2>hell of a lot of focus on what's going on

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<v Speaker 2>in the Liberal Party, and the suggestion is that next

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<v Speaker 2>week we could well see Angus Taylor mount his challenge.

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<v Speaker 2>Now the Liberal moderates the support, especially those quite close

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<v Speaker 2>to Lee, they suspect based on the ultimatum that you

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<v Speaker 2>might remember Little Proud made where he said that while

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<v Speaker 2>Susan Lee is leader, we can't have a coalition. That

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<v Speaker 2>in fact Little Proud and Taylor are colluding, if you

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<v Speaker 2>like strong word, but working together to dislodge Lee's leadership,

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<v Speaker 2>to reform the coalition in terms that are more acceptable,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly to the conservatives on the Liberal side, but in

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<v Speaker 2>terms it would be mightily acceptable to the Nationals.

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<v Speaker 1>David lilprou was also asked about whether or not one

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<v Speaker 1>nation could be part of a coalition to form government.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of this is just a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of entertainment rather than let's just work. Card. He

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<v Speaker 1>hosed it down, but he didn't exactly say no either.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you think unholy matrimony could actually take shape

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<v Speaker 1>anytime in our lifetime?

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Well Daniel, you would have to appreciate there's one

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<v Speaker 2>iron law in politics, and that's called the numbers. So

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<v Speaker 2>it would depend on where the numbers are. Now, let's

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<v Speaker 2>just get real for half a second. Right now, one

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<v Speaker 2>nation has one number in the House of Representatives and

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<v Speaker 2>his name is Barnaby Joyce. For one nation to be

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<v Speaker 2>in that sort of position, they would have had to

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<v Speaker 2>win quite a number of seats from the Nationals and

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<v Speaker 2>even the Liberals before anyone would be prepared to talk Turkey.

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<v Speaker 2>But you could imagine that if enough Liberals and Nats

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<v Speaker 2>scrape back in and if Labor loses a huge number

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<v Speaker 2>of seats, if Hanson's got the numbers, then some sort

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<v Speaker 2>of deal would be done. But even talk of this

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<v Speaker 2>right now, that's politically toxic. Hanson is identifying already with Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>who is poisoned in Australia, and that one nation, despite

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<v Speaker 2>the spike in its vote, it's coming predominantly from the

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<v Speaker 2>non labor side of politics. So that talk doesn't really

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<v Speaker 2>help the non labor side of politics to come back

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<v Speaker 2>into the center where governments are formed.

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<v Speaker 1>So if it is leaking from the non labor side

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<v Speaker 1>of politics to one nation, pool. Does that provide an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity for the government to stay centrist but also move

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<v Speaker 1>slightly further to the left.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, one probably who would wish that. And it does

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<v Speaker 2>then come down to how you define the left. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm inclined to define the left as being more progressive,

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<v Speaker 2>being more inclusive. That seems to be the mood of

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<v Speaker 2>a majority in urban Australia. But those of us have

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<v Speaker 2>been observing Anthony Albanesi ever since he got into the parliament,

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<v Speaker 2>even though as a student he was a left wing

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<v Speaker 2>warrior if you like, Really his performance in parliament and

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<v Speaker 2>certainly in government sees him more as a default conservative.

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<v Speaker 2>You know. One of his colleagues told me last year,

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<v Speaker 2>when there was a bit of complaint about Elbow being

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<v Speaker 2>so cautious, that well, you've got to understand that Albanezi

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<v Speaker 2>himself is personally quite conservative.

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<v Speaker 1>And finally, Paul, we saw both sides of politics finally

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<v Speaker 1>speak out in Parliament on the Perth Invasion Day rally attack,

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<v Speaker 1>which has now been declared a terrorist act. What did

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<v Speaker 1>you make of their response.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the first thing I made of it. Finally, finally

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<v Speaker 2>we face up to a brutal reality. So that was good.

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<v Speaker 2>It was interesting that Albanesi's response was more fulsome in

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<v Speaker 2>the impact that this terrorist act had had on First

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<v Speaker 2>Nations people on the Aboriginal communities in Australia than Susan Lee.

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<v Speaker 3>This alleged act of terrorism was deliberately aimed at Aboriginal

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<v Speaker 3>antire Astra Islander Australians, mister speaker, this was alleged terrorism

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<v Speaker 3>driven by racism and hatred.

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<v Speaker 2>Although she did mouth in her short speech to the

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<v Speaker 2>Parliament the right words and the right sentiments. Australia is

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<v Speaker 2>defined by tolerance and respect. We can never accept a

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<v Speaker 2>situation where we turn to violence to settle our political differences.

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<v Speaker 2>Everyone knew the act was a criminal act, but apparently

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<v Speaker 2>for it to be a terrorist act, you've got to

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<v Speaker 2>get to the intent. What did the perpetrator intend? And

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<v Speaker 2>there is now evidence through his use of the Internet

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<v Speaker 2>that he is a white supremacist and that he deliberately

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<v Speaker 2>targeted not anybody but Aboriginal Australians. But look, I'm very

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<v Speaker 2>grateful that the response politically is very different to what

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<v Speaker 2>we saw after what happened at Bondai. You might remember,

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<v Speaker 2>within almost twelve hours the federal opposition leaders in the

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<v Speaker 2>Jewish community were accusing Albanezi of literally pulling the trigger.

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<v Speaker 2>Josh Fredenberg said he was personally responsible because he and

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<v Speaker 2>the Australian government had recognized the Palestinian state. Now, if

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<v Speaker 2>you use the logic of that and apply it in

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<v Speaker 2>this attack, does that mean that Peter Dutton, the Nationals,

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<v Speaker 2>Pauline Hanson, who has made her whole political history an

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<v Speaker 2>attack on the privilege in inverted commas of First Nations people,

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<v Speaker 2>and just sent to Namba jimper Price who said if

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<v Speaker 2>you vote yeah, yes, you're dividing Australia because Aboriginal Australians

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<v Speaker 2>aren't all that special. That was the real argument there.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank god, nobody is pointing the finger at any of

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<v Speaker 2>these people saying they are the ones through the bomb.

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<v Speaker 2>But if we're going to talk about factors, if we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to talk about what fuels hate and anti semitism

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<v Speaker 2>on one side, well what fuels racism and discrimination against

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<v Speaker 2>our First peoples that we're still struggling to come to

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<v Speaker 2>terms with.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul always wonderful to speak with you, Thanks for coming on.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel by seven Am is a daily show from Solstice Media.

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<v Speaker 1>He's made by Atticas Basto, Ariel Richards, Chris Danegate, Crystal Color,

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<v Speaker 1>Nicole Johnston, Travis Evans, Zotonfecho and Me Daniel James. Our

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<v Speaker 1>theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of

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<v Speaker 1>Envelope Poortier. You've been listening to seven Am. Have a

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<v Speaker 1>great weekend.