Speaker 1: I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. This
Speaker 1: week Australians will hit with another reminder that the cost
Speaker 1: of living crisis isn't over and the government's room to
Speaker 1: move is narrow and fast. And it just rate rises
Speaker 1: sharpened the pressure on Anthony Alberanezi and Jim Charmbers. Just
Speaker 1: as a federal budget looms, the government is now forced
Speaker 1: to weigh up expectations of economic reform versus political risk. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the opposition is unraveling in plain sight, the coalition split,
Speaker 1: with the Nationals relegated to the cross bench. Today Press
Speaker 1: Gallery veteran pau Bon Jorno and how exposed the government
Speaker 1: really is, how bold it can afford to be, and
Speaker 1: how the opposition's collapse is reshaping the political contest. It's Saturday,
Speaker 1: February seven, Paul, great to see you again. Let's start
Speaker 1: with interest rates. This week's rate rise is a headache
Speaker 1: for a lot of Australians, but also for Anthony Albanezi
Speaker 1: and Jim Charmers. How much pressure does this hike put
Speaker 1: on the government.
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's the biggest challenge to the credentials
Speaker 2: of the Albanesi government. The management of the economy since
Speaker 2: they were elected almost four years ago. Because remember at
Speaker 2: the time of the election we were being told and
Speaker 2: there was evidence at the time that inflation had been tamed,
Speaker 2: and the claims of the Prime Minister and the Treasure
Speaker 2: was that would turned the corner. Well, these numbers show
Speaker 2: that the Australian economies turned a corner.
Speaker 3: We're turning the corner.
Speaker 2: The economic figures. The intervening six months have seen a
Speaker 2: dramatic revision that has really undermined the assumptions and projections
Speaker 2: of Treasury and the Reserve Bank, and we've seen these
Speaker 2: this week with the Reserve Bank having a big rethink.
Speaker 2: Well the first time in more than two years, mortgage
Speaker 2: holders are this morning counting the cost of a great
Speaker 2: hike the Reserve Bank. Now, I know this is not
Speaker 2: the news that Australians with mortgages want to hear, but
Speaker 2: it is the right thing for the economy. And of
Speaker 2: course that means that the government has been put completely
Speaker 2: on the back foot now and as it were, has
Speaker 2: to reset. So, as Jim Chalmers said in a number
Speaker 2: of interviews and in Parliament, whatever the political argument, and
Speaker 2: there's a big one between you know, the government the
Speaker 2: opposition and others. This really is hurting three million mortgage holders,
Speaker 2: and not only mortgage holders, people who are borrowing, small
Speaker 2: business and all of that. The only consolation I think
Speaker 2: Labor has. I was speaking to one of the cabinet
Speaker 2: ministers and he said, well, look, the problem for Susan
Speaker 2: Lee and Ted O'Brien, hers shadow treasurer, is that they
Speaker 2: and this has massed in all the opinion polling and
Speaker 2: the shambles that they're in, they have no real credibility.
Speaker 2: As the minister said to me, he said, well, look,
Speaker 2: there is no doubt there are real challenges out there
Speaker 2: and people are really hurting, but nobody believes the Libs
Speaker 2: have got the answers.
Speaker 1: There are predictions of at least one more rise this year,
Speaker 1: and we've also got the federal budget coming up where
Speaker 1: the government will be under scrutiny over spending. How dangerous
Speaker 1: is this territory for the government, What sort of things
Speaker 1: will they be looking the cat?
Speaker 2: Well, that's the perennial question, and it does presume that
Speaker 2: everybody believes that the government spending is bad by definition.
Speaker 2: You know, it's almost a meme that Labour's political opponents
Speaker 2: have been using basically for the last hundred years or more.
Speaker 2: But I think the experience of the pandemic particularly was
Speaker 2: that people do expect the government to look after them,
Speaker 2: even the ones who say, or you're spending too much,
Speaker 2: but it's all right if you spend on me. And
Speaker 2: I think we've got to recalibrate just a little bit
Speaker 2: that argument. But coming back to your point, yes, the
Speaker 2: government does need to be able to demons straight that
Speaker 2: it is not, as the Liberals claim, spending like a
Speaker 2: drunken sailor that it is spending wisely, that it is
Speaker 2: spending in a way that amereli orates the impact on
Speaker 2: the standard of living of Australians. And one would hope,
Speaker 2: and this is of course the challenge of the upcoming
Speaker 2: budget that it does do things, maybe with taxation, maybe
Speaker 2: with the way the government operates, that will actually restore
Speaker 2: the standard of living that's taken a pretty big hit
Speaker 2: in recent years.
Speaker 1: Speaking of taxation, it's been reported that the government is
Speaker 1: looking to slash the capital gains tax discount in lieu
Speaker 1: of an effective opposition. At the moment, it should be
Speaker 1: easy enough to do and they are looking to be bolder.
Speaker 1: But how difficult is it for governments to take away
Speaker 1: a benefit that is firmly embedded.
Speaker 2: Well, it's politically, it's extremely difficult. But people say, oh,
Speaker 2: every time Labor says it wants to do something on
Speaker 2: negative gearing capital gains tax, it loses an election. Yes,
Speaker 2: from opposition. There is a huge difference between a government
Speaker 2: being able to bring in a reform that it can
Speaker 2: manage and design and an opposition saying, first of all,
Speaker 2: vote for us, trust us to get into government, and
Speaker 2: then trust us when we're in government that we will
Speaker 2: do this reform. And given the political capital that Albanese
Speaker 2: has also by default also by the default that his
Speaker 2: political opponents are a shambles, you would think that the
Speaker 2: sort of risk historically that these reforms generate is more
Speaker 2: than manageable. The Parliamentary Budget Office, at the request of
Speaker 2: the Australian Greens, looked at this and it found that
Speaker 2: the cost of this concession for capital gains tax discount
Speaker 2: is going to be in the order of two hundred
Speaker 2: and sixty billion dollars over the next ten years and
Speaker 2: the main beneficiaries are the top one percent the richest
Speaker 2: people in Australia are the main beneficiaries now, surely the
Speaker 2: government can argue in this regard as it did with
Speaker 2: the Stage three tax cuts. Yes, there will be losers
Speaker 2: with this reform, but there are people who can afford
Speaker 2: to lose something, and they certainly won't be losing.
Speaker 1: Everything coming up? Could an alliance between the Nationals and
Speaker 1: One Nation be the next twist in the coalition saga?
Speaker 1: Paul just how brave Albanezi will be his contingent on
Speaker 1: if and when the opposition sorts itself out. How extraordinary
Speaker 1: was it the sea the Nats relegated to the cross
Speaker 1: bench in Parliament this week.
Speaker 2: Well, it was utterly extraordinary. In fact, the Leader of
Speaker 2: the House, Tony Burke said, you'd have to go back
Speaker 2: almost one hundred years to see something like we were
Speaker 2: seeing now where the cross Bench had as many members
Speaker 2: on it as the official opposition. That's a situation that
Speaker 2: we've now got and how long it'll last is anybody's guess.
Speaker 2: But the indications are that while Susan Lee remains Liberal
Speaker 2: leader and David Little proud Nationals leader, we're not going
Speaker 2: to see a reproachemont anytime soon.
Speaker 1: They're constructed, they're ongoing, and we'll keep working through it.
Speaker 2: They were friendly, they were constructed, we agreed to keep talking.
Speaker 2: So look, this does, by the way, Daniel put a
Speaker 2: hell of a lot of focus on what's going on
Speaker 2: in the Liberal Party, and the suggestion is that next
Speaker 2: week we could well see Angus Taylor mount his challenge.
Speaker 2: Now the Liberal moderates the support, especially those quite close
Speaker 2: to Lee, they suspect based on the ultimatum that you
Speaker 2: might remember Little Proud made where he said that while
Speaker 2: Susan Lee is leader, we can't have a coalition. That
Speaker 2: in fact Little Proud and Taylor are colluding, if you
Speaker 2: like strong word, but working together to dislodge Lee's leadership,
Speaker 2: to reform the coalition in terms that are more acceptable,
Speaker 2: particularly to the conservatives on the Liberal side, but in
Speaker 2: terms it would be mightily acceptable to the Nationals.
Speaker 1: David lilprou was also asked about whether or not one
Speaker 1: nation could be part of a coalition to form government.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of this is just a little
Speaker 1: bit of entertainment rather than let's just work. Card. He
Speaker 1: hosed it down, but he didn't exactly say no either.
Speaker 1: So do you think unholy matrimony could actually take shape
Speaker 1: anytime in our lifetime?
Speaker 2: Paul Well Daniel, you would have to appreciate there's one
Speaker 2: iron law in politics, and that's called the numbers. So
Speaker 2: it would depend on where the numbers are. Now, let's
Speaker 2: just get real for half a second. Right now, one
Speaker 2: nation has one number in the House of Representatives and
Speaker 2: his name is Barnaby Joyce. For one nation to be
Speaker 2: in that sort of position, they would have had to
Speaker 2: win quite a number of seats from the Nationals and
Speaker 2: even the Liberals before anyone would be prepared to talk Turkey.
Speaker 2: But you could imagine that if enough Liberals and Nats
Speaker 2: scrape back in and if Labor loses a huge number
Speaker 2: of seats, if Hanson's got the numbers, then some sort
Speaker 2: of deal would be done. But even talk of this
Speaker 2: right now, that's politically toxic. Hanson is identifying already with Trump,
Speaker 2: who is poisoned in Australia, and that one nation, despite
Speaker 2: the spike in its vote, it's coming predominantly from the
Speaker 2: non labor side of politics. So that talk doesn't really
Speaker 2: help the non labor side of politics to come back
Speaker 2: into the center where governments are formed.
Speaker 1: So if it is leaking from the non labor side
Speaker 1: of politics to one nation, pool. Does that provide an
Speaker 1: opportunity for the government to stay centrist but also move
Speaker 1: slightly further to the left.
Speaker 2: Well, one probably who would wish that. And it does
Speaker 2: then come down to how you define the left. Now,
Speaker 2: I'm inclined to define the left as being more progressive,
Speaker 2: being more inclusive. That seems to be the mood of
Speaker 2: a majority in urban Australia. But those of us have
Speaker 2: been observing Anthony Albanesi ever since he got into the parliament,
Speaker 2: even though as a student he was a left wing
Speaker 2: warrior if you like, Really his performance in parliament and
Speaker 2: certainly in government sees him more as a default conservative.
Speaker 2: You know. One of his colleagues told me last year,
Speaker 2: when there was a bit of complaint about Elbow being
Speaker 2: so cautious, that well, you've got to understand that Albanezi
Speaker 2: himself is personally quite conservative.
Speaker 1: And finally, Paul, we saw both sides of politics finally
Speaker 1: speak out in Parliament on the Perth Invasion Day rally attack,
Speaker 1: which has now been declared a terrorist act. What did
Speaker 1: you make of their response.
Speaker 2: Well, the first thing I made of it. Finally, finally
Speaker 2: we face up to a brutal reality. So that was good.
Speaker 2: It was interesting that Albanesi's response was more fulsome in
Speaker 2: the impact that this terrorist act had had on First
Speaker 2: Nations people on the Aboriginal communities in Australia than Susan Lee.
Speaker 3: This alleged act of terrorism was deliberately aimed at Aboriginal
Speaker 3: antire Astra Islander Australians, mister speaker, this was alleged terrorism
Speaker 3: driven by racism and hatred.
Speaker 2: Although she did mouth in her short speech to the
Speaker 2: Parliament the right words and the right sentiments. Australia is
Speaker 2: defined by tolerance and respect. We can never accept a
Speaker 2: situation where we turn to violence to settle our political differences.
Speaker 2: Everyone knew the act was a criminal act, but apparently
Speaker 2: for it to be a terrorist act, you've got to
Speaker 2: get to the intent. What did the perpetrator intend? And
Speaker 2: there is now evidence through his use of the Internet
Speaker 2: that he is a white supremacist and that he deliberately
Speaker 2: targeted not anybody but Aboriginal Australians. But look, I'm very
Speaker 2: grateful that the response politically is very different to what
Speaker 2: we saw after what happened at Bondai. You might remember,
Speaker 2: within almost twelve hours the federal opposition leaders in the
Speaker 2: Jewish community were accusing Albanezi of literally pulling the trigger.
Speaker 2: Josh Fredenberg said he was personally responsible because he and
Speaker 2: the Australian government had recognized the Palestinian state. Now, if
Speaker 2: you use the logic of that and apply it in
Speaker 2: this attack, does that mean that Peter Dutton, the Nationals,
Speaker 2: Pauline Hanson, who has made her whole political history an
Speaker 2: attack on the privilege in inverted commas of First Nations people,
Speaker 2: and just sent to Namba jimper Price who said if
Speaker 2: you vote yeah, yes, you're dividing Australia because Aboriginal Australians
Speaker 2: aren't all that special. That was the real argument there.
Speaker 2: Thank god, nobody is pointing the finger at any of
Speaker 2: these people saying they are the ones through the bomb.
Speaker 2: But if we're going to talk about factors, if we're
Speaker 2: going to talk about what fuels hate and anti semitism
Speaker 2: on one side, well what fuels racism and discrimination against
Speaker 2: our First peoples that we're still struggling to come to
Speaker 2: terms with.
Speaker 1: Paul always wonderful to speak with you, Thanks for coming on.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Daniel by seven Am is a daily show from Solstice Media.
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