1 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, the seventh of April twenty twenty six. Welcome 2 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: to the Fast five Business News by Fear and Greed, 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: when we give you the top five business stories you 4 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: need to know in just five minutes. I'm Michael Thompson 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. Five stories, 6 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: five minutes. Let's go a story number one. Local interest 7 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 1: rates likely to rise in coming months and global markets 8 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: are set for a pretty turbulent week after US President 9 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump threatened to blow up civilian infrastructure in Iran 10 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: from tomorrow morning Australian time if the Strait of her 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 1: Muz is not reopened. While the latest salvo from the 12 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: President pushed up the price of oil, equity markets r 13 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: under pressure, while the local housing market is stumbling. Bond 14 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: yields have risen, while the Aussie dollar has fallen against 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: the greenback. Where to start? 16 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: Oh, where to start? Of course, the war in the 17 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 2: Middle East and the price of oil is a big unknown. 18 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: The best case scenario is, as has been reported, a 19 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 2: forty five day ceasefire. Even if that's true, in the 20 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 2: straight off for Moore's opens much immediately. The International Energy 21 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: Agency estimates it will be months before oil prices get 22 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 2: back to normal. Worst case scenario, it's what pushed up 23 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: Brent prices at the long weekend. Donald Trump carries out 24 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: his threat to bomb critical infrastructure in Iran. Economists are 25 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 2: now arguing that under any scenario, headline inflation Australia heading 26 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 2: towards five percent four percent in underlying terms, that means 27 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 2: at least two more interest rate hikes this year. Ouch 28 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 2: not habby. That's been reflected in the bond markets. Yields 29 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 2: on ten year bonds now back above five percent. That's 30 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 2: pretty high ASI dollar buying about sixty nine US cents. 31 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: It all comes after a pretty crazy weekend out of 32 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: the US Sean, highlighted i think by the presidents rather 33 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: explicive laden social media post on Sunday. In part it 34 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: said open the air and straight EU, crazy bastards, or 35 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: you'll be living in hell. He as part of that, 36 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: he threatened to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if 37 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: Tehran did not comply. But as you mentioned, there are 38 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: also reports of a plan for a ceasefire US Iran. 39 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 1: A group of regional mediators discussing the terms for a 40 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: potential forty five day ceasefire that could lead to a 41 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: more permanent end to the war. Two phases to that. 42 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: The first is the forty five day cease fire, during 43 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: which they would discuss a permanent end to the war. 44 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: In the second phase would be an agreement on actually 45 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: ending the conflict. 46 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 2: Let's hope that's the case, because I got to mention 47 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 2: the fact that that you wounded USM and who was 48 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,519 Speaker 2: three hundred and twenty kilometers inside Iran was rescued over 49 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: the weekend. Good work, I'd say, yeah. 50 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: Indeed, on the story number two, all that global turmoilers 51 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: is also hitting the local housing market Sean. The final 52 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: auction clearance rate for the past week is set to 53 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: fall below fifty percent, a level last hit during the 54 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: first COVID shutdowns. The preliminary clearance rate, according to Cotality, 55 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: came in at fifty five point five percent. Given the 56 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: difference between the preliminary rate and the final rate has 57 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: been around six percentage points, then that final rate could 58 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: actually end up showing that more houses were passed in 59 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 1: than sold last week. That's right. 60 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 2: The Easter week isn't a typical week, to be honest. 61 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 2: Only seven hundred homes when under the hammer but in 62 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 2: recent years, even weeks like this last one, clearance RAITs 63 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 2: have always been above fifty percent, So you would think, Michael, 64 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 2: that maybe we're going to end up with under fifty 65 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 2: percent for the first time since COVID. The trend is 66 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 2: your friend. Of course, the trend in housing markets, particularly 67 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 2: in Sydney and Melbourne is negative when it comes to 68 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: house auctions. 69 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 1: As during number three, wait times for electric vehicle purchases 70 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: has blown out by several months as manufacturers get caught 71 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: out by the spike in demand. Chinese carmaker byds so 72 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: the average weight time for its top selling Sea Lions 73 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: seven and the Ato two models was now between two 74 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: and three months, up from two to three weeks previously. 75 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: After the Iran cris has created a bit of a 76 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: rush on customers making that switch from petrol cars to evs. 77 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: And you're seeing that in finance figures Comonwealth Banks that 78 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 2: it recorded a one hundred and sixty one percent jump 79 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 2: in weekly loaned volumes for new battery evs. NAB said 80 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 2: its loane applications had do even before the Middle East 81 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 2: evs were rising or the number of evvs sold were rising. 82 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: The account for about thirteen percent of all newcarr and 83 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 2: ight commercial vehicle sales at the moment, I dare say, 84 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 2: particularly with the free trade agreement with Europe underway now, 85 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 2: where the EV's will be cheaper from that region, I 86 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 2: reckon we're going to head. We're heading towards twenty percent 87 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: EV sales by the end of the year. That's my prediction. 88 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: Michael okay A story number four is quickly bad news 89 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: for renters, with the market appearing to be a bit 90 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: of a turning point and rents to rise across the country. 91 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: Coatality's national rental index is up five point seven percent. 92 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: That's the largest annual change since October twenty twenty four, 93 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: adding about thirty seven dollars a week to the median 94 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 1: rental rate. Most capitals have seen the annual rates of 95 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: rental growth accelerating since mid last year and mid persistently 96 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: low vacancy rates at Nationally, the rental vacancy rate pushed 97 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: a little higher in March, reaching one point six percent, 98 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: but that is still well below the decade average of 99 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: two and a half percent. 100 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: In fact, every capital city is below two percent. Adelaide's 101 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 2: tightest zero point nine percent, percon one point one percent. 102 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 2: The least tight, though still very tight Sydney at one 103 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 2: point seven percent. The reacceleration and rental growth is occurring 104 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 2: at a time when rental affordability measures are already stretched. 105 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 2: Why is this happening, Well, it's basically all about the 106 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 2: fact that there's just not enough supply on the market 107 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 2: at the moment. 108 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: Last one story number five sean reality TV has it 109 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: had its day? Well possibly. The number of unscripted US 110 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: series premieres fell by fifteen percent last year and by 111 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: a third since twenty twenty two. Several well known series 112 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: like MTV's Jersey Shaw Family Vacation and Catfish the TV 113 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 1: Show have been recently canceled, according to The New York Times, 114 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: and apparently no genre is safe. Cooking, crime, home design, 115 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: travel shows are more They're all disappeared, but there are 116 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: a few. 117 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 2: That is sort of a lasting, like Love Island, Housewives, 118 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 2: Free Below Deck Survivor they continue on. Others like Dancing 119 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: with Stars. They've had a TikTok fueled renaissance, at least 120 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 2: in the US. There's been the odd disaster. The latest 121 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 2: series of the Bachelorette was shelved after a video of 122 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: Taylor Frankie Paul the Bachelorette. The video of the social 123 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 2: media post showed her in a domestic violent scandal. They 124 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 2: shelved the show. Three main reasons for the decline in 125 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: reality TV the fall off of cable TV in the US, 126 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 2: the rise of YouTube, and ongoing consolidation in the industry. 127 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: All right, there we go, the top five business stories 128 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: in five minutes. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It 129 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: is Tuesday, the seventh of April twenty twenty six. Remember 130 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 2: to hit follow on the podcast and five minutes just 131 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: isn't enough. 132 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: You're going to find our longer daily show called Fear 133 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: and Greed wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Michael Thompson 134 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: and that was the fast five business news by Fear 135 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.