1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,569 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,570 --> 00:00:09,479 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. The Reserve Bank Board yesterday left the official cash 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,799 Sean Aylmer: rate on hold at 4.1% with Governor Philip Lowe saying 4 00:00:13,799 --> 00:00:16,680 Sean Aylmer: the higher rates are working to establish a more sustainable 5 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:20,489 Sean Aylmer: balance between supply and demand in the economy and will 6 00:00:20,489 --> 00:00:23,880 Sean Aylmer: continue to do so. But he warned that more increases 7 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,639 Sean Aylmer: might still be needed to get inflation back into its 8 00:00:26,639 --> 00:00:29,280 Sean Aylmer: target range or at least the reserve banks target range. 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:34,049 Sean Aylmer: Carlos Cacho is the Chief Economist at Jarden Australia. Carlos, welcome to 10 00:00:34,049 --> 00:00:35,370 Sean Aylmer: or welcome back to Fear and Greed. 11 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:37,770 Carlos Cacho: Thanks for having me, Sean. Good to be back. 12 00:00:38,370 --> 00:00:41,370 Sean Aylmer: So the big question, do you think the rate rise 13 00:00:41,370 --> 00:00:43,019 Sean Aylmer: cycle is over or not? 14 00:00:43,620 --> 00:00:46,620 Carlos Cacho: Look, in our view there's still the risk is we 15 00:00:46,620 --> 00:00:51,029 Carlos Cacho: do see more rate hikes. Inflation, while it is slowing, 16 00:00:51,059 --> 00:00:55,320 Carlos Cacho: is still twice the top of the RBAs target. We are 17 00:00:55,320 --> 00:01:00,090 Carlos Cacho: still seeing services inflation, particularly in things like rents, insurance, 18 00:01:00,330 --> 00:01:03,509 Carlos Cacho: utilities increasing at a pretty rapid pace and that's going 19 00:01:03,510 --> 00:01:05,789 Carlos Cacho: to make it difficult for the RBA to say anytime 20 00:01:05,789 --> 00:01:09,479 Carlos Cacho: soon that they're done hiking rates with a sense of certainty. 21 00:01:09,660 --> 00:01:11,609 Carlos Cacho: On top of that, we also know the housing market 22 00:01:11,609 --> 00:01:14,370 Carlos Cacho: is now picking up again miraculously in the face of 23 00:01:14,370 --> 00:01:17,430 Carlos Cacho: a over 30% fall in how much money people can borrow. 24 00:01:17,730 --> 00:01:20,520 Carlos Cacho: And so that creates upside risks to the consumer that the 25 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,190 Carlos Cacho: RBA also has to factor into their thinking. 26 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,839 Sean Aylmer: So the bank talked about the services' inflation yesterday, didn't 27 00:01:27,839 --> 00:01:31,319 Sean Aylmer: they? Clearly it's something that is top of mind to them. 28 00:01:31,830 --> 00:01:34,740 Carlos Cacho: Yes, absolutely. And this is really a global trend we've 29 00:01:34,740 --> 00:01:39,389 Carlos Cacho: seen where goods inflation, particularly in discretionary consumer goods is 30 00:01:39,389 --> 00:01:44,009 Carlos Cacho: coming back as global supply chains ease. As retailers start 31 00:01:44,009 --> 00:01:46,619 Carlos Cacho: discounting again. As consumers make it a little bit more 32 00:01:46,619 --> 00:01:49,800 Carlos Cacho: difficult to get into their wallets. And what's left running 33 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:52,920 Carlos Cacho: and has been quite persistent globally is that services component. 34 00:01:52,950 --> 00:01:55,920 Carlos Cacho: In Australia, the big driver at the moment is rents, 35 00:01:56,130 --> 00:01:59,250 Carlos Cacho: which are accelerating towards about 10% year- on- year, which 36 00:01:59,250 --> 00:02:01,200 Carlos Cacho: is the fastest pace we've seen in a very long 37 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,079 Carlos Cacho: time, and that's the second- biggest weight in the CPI 38 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,990 Carlos Cacho: basket. So that has a pretty material impact on the 39 00:02:06,990 --> 00:02:08,220 Carlos Cacho: headline inflation number. 40 00:02:08,940 --> 00:02:12,000 Sean Aylmer: The Reserve Bank is famous for what they call jawboning, 41 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:17,160 Sean Aylmer: talking up or down rates depending on the economic circumstances 42 00:02:17,669 --> 00:02:20,700 Sean Aylmer: whilst actually not always doing something. Now the last couple 43 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:23,249 Sean Aylmer: of meetings we've been on pause, but we keep hearing 44 00:02:23,250 --> 00:02:26,490 Sean Aylmer: the same commentary, that rates may need to rise. How 45 00:02:26,490 --> 00:02:29,160 Sean Aylmer: much of jawboning is going on at the moment do 46 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:29,550 Sean Aylmer: you reckon? 47 00:02:30,300 --> 00:02:33,510 Carlos Cacho: Look, they're going to keep this commentary that the rates 48 00:02:33,510 --> 00:02:35,728 Carlos Cacho: may need to rise. They're going to keep their hawkish 49 00:02:35,790 --> 00:02:39,089 Carlos Cacho: bias or their tightening bias for quite some time in our 50 00:02:39,089 --> 00:02:42,329 Carlos Cacho: view, as long as there's still upside risk to inflation, 51 00:02:42,630 --> 00:02:44,820 Carlos Cacho: which I think is probably going to drag on for 52 00:02:44,820 --> 00:02:48,360 Carlos Cacho: quite a few months, if not well into 2024, they're 53 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,120 Carlos Cacho: going to maintain that guidance because as soon as they 54 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,660 Carlos Cacho: stop saying that, then the assumption people and the market are going 55 00:02:54,660 --> 00:02:57,599 Carlos Cacho: to have is that rate cuts are coming soon. And 56 00:02:57,599 --> 00:03:00,180 Carlos Cacho: so they don't want that because that would then lead 57 00:03:00,180 --> 00:03:03,840 Carlos Cacho: to a loosening in financial conditions and potentially a pickup 58 00:03:03,930 --> 00:03:07,139 Carlos Cacho: in confidence and activity ahead of that rate cuts actually 59 00:03:07,139 --> 00:03:09,929 Carlos Cacho: being delivered. So they will hold that for a while. 60 00:03:10,110 --> 00:03:12,719 Carlos Cacho: That said, their tone was a little bit more cautious 61 00:03:12,719 --> 00:03:15,899 Carlos Cacho: this meeting, and we did see the Aussie dollar soften 62 00:03:15,900 --> 00:03:17,760 Carlos Cacho: a little bit yesterday and we saw bond yields a 63 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,650 Carlos Cacho: little bit lower and equities a bit higher. So that 64 00:03:19,650 --> 00:03:22,020 Carlos Cacho: suggests it was a little bit more dovish as we 65 00:03:22,020 --> 00:03:24,540 Carlos Cacho: say, or a little bit more cautious than what the 66 00:03:24,540 --> 00:03:25,980 Carlos Cacho: market was expecting going in. 67 00:03:27,030 --> 00:03:30,750 Sean Aylmer: The other thing, Carlos Cacho from Jarden Australia, is have they 68 00:03:30,750 --> 00:03:33,809 Sean Aylmer: changed their forecast on inflation? Because they said that it 69 00:03:33,809 --> 00:03:35,940 Sean Aylmer: will be back in the two to 3% range or 70 00:03:35,940 --> 00:03:39,000 Sean Aylmer: won't be back in that until late 2025. I think 71 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:40,530 Sean Aylmer: previously they were mid 25. 72 00:03:41,070 --> 00:03:44,279 Carlos Cacho: Look, they didn't really change their forecast much at all 73 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,289 Carlos Cacho: this meeting. We'll get the full suite of numbers on 74 00:03:46,290 --> 00:03:49,590 Carlos Cacho: Friday when they release their quarterly forecasts. But what we 75 00:03:49,590 --> 00:03:52,799 Carlos Cacho: saw today is they still expect inflation to moderate to 76 00:03:52,799 --> 00:03:54,630 Carlos Cacho: about three and a quarter percent by the end of 77 00:03:54,630 --> 00:03:57,780 Carlos Cacho: next year, which is consistent with what their forecast was 78 00:03:57,780 --> 00:04:01,440 Carlos Cacho: in May. And now, they've extended their forecast profile out 79 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,320 Carlos Cacho: an extra six months to the end of 2025 and 80 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,330 Carlos Cacho: they now expect inflation to be within the two to 81 00:04:06,330 --> 00:04:08,820 Carlos Cacho: 3% band. So it doesn't really look like there's been 82 00:04:09,270 --> 00:04:12,660 Carlos Cacho: any change in their actual forecast aside from just extending 83 00:04:12,660 --> 00:04:16,110 Carlos Cacho: the term. And their final forecast was 3% in June 84 00:04:16,140 --> 00:04:19,859 Carlos Cacho: 2025. So the natural assumption would be, well, the second 85 00:04:19,860 --> 00:04:22,769 Carlos Cacho: half of 2025, it's going to be below 3%. So 86 00:04:22,770 --> 00:04:25,410 Carlos Cacho: it's not really telling us anything new, which in itself 87 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:29,099 Carlos Cacho: is a little bit surprising given the CPI outcome from 88 00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:32,310 Carlos Cacho: the quarterly data we got last week was actually softer 89 00:04:32,310 --> 00:04:34,950 Carlos Cacho: than they and the market expected. And so I think 90 00:04:34,950 --> 00:04:38,130 Carlos Cacho: that really highlights the upside risk they still see to 91 00:04:38,130 --> 00:04:41,219 Carlos Cacho: services inflation as well as the fact that they are 92 00:04:41,219 --> 00:04:45,719 Carlos Cacho: still likely to maintain this hiking or tightening bias for some 93 00:04:45,719 --> 00:04:47,340 Carlos Cacho: time given their caution around that. 94 00:04:47,969 --> 00:04:49,830 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Carlos, we'll be back in a minute. 95 00:04:55,890 --> 00:05:00,000 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Carlos Cacho, Chief Economist at Jarden Australia. 96 00:05:01,230 --> 00:05:04,619 Sean Aylmer: What about the labour market? It remains very strong. How 97 00:05:04,619 --> 00:05:07,139 Sean Aylmer: much you think that's playing into the reserve bank's thinking 98 00:05:07,139 --> 00:05:07,680 Sean Aylmer: at the moment? 99 00:05:08,130 --> 00:05:11,250 Carlos Cacho: Oh, that's definitely a big challenge for the reserve bank's thinking. 100 00:05:11,250 --> 00:05:14,820 Carlos Cacho: We know that wages are picking up now, we're still 101 00:05:14,820 --> 00:05:17,039 Carlos Cacho: yet to see the impact of things like the large 102 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:21,238 Carlos Cacho: minimum wage increase in the CPI data and unemployment is 103 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,839 Carlos Cacho: holding at a 50- year low. The leading indicators, things like 104 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,289 Carlos Cacho: job ads are softening a little bit, but they still 105 00:05:28,290 --> 00:05:32,339 Carlos Cacho: remain very strong versus history. So the RBA is probably 106 00:05:32,339 --> 00:05:35,969 Carlos Cacho: hoping that they can deliver a moderation in inflation while 107 00:05:35,969 --> 00:05:39,988 Carlos Cacho: keeping unemployment relatively low versus history and we'll just have 108 00:05:39,990 --> 00:05:41,940 Carlos Cacho: to wait to see how that pans out. But the 109 00:05:41,940 --> 00:05:44,910 Carlos Cacho: risk is with a really tight labour market still persisting, 110 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,760 Carlos Cacho: you could get higher wages growth and that's going to 111 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,609 Carlos Cacho: put more pressure on services inflation, which is exactly what 112 00:05:50,610 --> 00:05:52,980 Carlos Cacho: they're worried about. Now the other hard thing for the 113 00:05:52,980 --> 00:05:57,299 Carlos Cacho: RBA is productivity just isn't there. And without productivity growth, 114 00:05:57,299 --> 00:06:01,050 Carlos Cacho: that means that the unit labour costs, which is basically 115 00:06:01,050 --> 00:06:05,159 Carlos Cacho: the cost of labour for producing a standard unit of 116 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,190 Carlos Cacho: output are rising at a record level. And so that's 117 00:06:08,190 --> 00:06:10,380 Carlos Cacho: putting upward pressure on inflation as well. So the RBA 118 00:06:10,380 --> 00:06:13,860 Carlos Cacho: likes to say that wages are consistent with the CPI 119 00:06:13,860 --> 00:06:18,029 Carlos Cacho: target if productivity increases back towards where it was pre-COVID. 120 00:06:18,330 --> 00:06:21,690 Carlos Cacho: The problem is productivity isn't increasing to anywhere near where 121 00:06:21,690 --> 00:06:24,150 Carlos Cacho: it was pre-COVID and it's actually deeply negative at the moment. 122 00:06:24,779 --> 00:06:26,760 Sean Aylmer: I want to also ask you about house prices because 123 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:30,690 Sean Aylmer: the core logic figures came out yesterday in terms of July, 124 00:06:31,410 --> 00:06:35,189 Sean Aylmer: house prices are still rising and if you take Sydney as 125 00:06:35,190 --> 00:06:38,130 Sean Aylmer: the leading market, just in terms of leading the market, 126 00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:40,049 Sean Aylmer: the heat does seem to have come out of it 127 00:06:40,050 --> 00:06:40,710 Sean Aylmer: just a little bit. 128 00:06:41,580 --> 00:06:44,490 Carlos Cacho: Look, we've definitely seen a moderation in the strength of 129 00:06:44,490 --> 00:06:47,789 Carlos Cacho: the housing market over the last couple of months. May and June, 130 00:06:47,790 --> 00:06:50,519 Carlos Cacho: auction clearance rates were in the 70s, they're back down 131 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:54,029 Carlos Cacho: to the mid-60s again. The pace of monthly price growth 132 00:06:54,029 --> 00:06:57,060 Carlos Cacho: has moderated over 50% from where it was. We were 133 00:06:57,060 --> 00:07:01,830 Carlos Cacho: seeing 1% plus outcomes, we're now back below 1%. It's still 134 00:07:01,830 --> 00:07:06,000 Carlos Cacho: surprisingly resilient in the face of higher rates. Our expectation 135 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,909 Carlos Cacho: remains that rates are going to remain high for longer 136 00:07:08,910 --> 00:07:10,920 Carlos Cacho: than expected and that is eventually going to take the 137 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,170 Carlos Cacho: wind out of the sails of the housing market. But 138 00:07:13,170 --> 00:07:15,900 Carlos Cacho: that's crucially going to depend on more supply coming on. 139 00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:17,490 Carlos Cacho: And one of the biggest drivers at the moment is 140 00:07:17,490 --> 00:07:20,370 Carlos Cacho: just that there's so little stock on the market. So 141 00:07:20,370 --> 00:07:24,450 Carlos Cacho: even though demand might be relatively soft versus normal conditions, 142 00:07:24,690 --> 00:07:27,150 Carlos Cacho: there's so few houses available that people are still having 143 00:07:27,150 --> 00:07:29,850 Carlos Cacho: to bid up to win them. What we are starting 144 00:07:29,850 --> 00:07:33,450 Carlos Cacho: to see now though is the unusual seasonal pattern where 145 00:07:33,450 --> 00:07:36,750 Carlos Cacho: listings are already starting to rise and in particular they're 146 00:07:36,750 --> 00:07:40,530 Carlos Cacho: starting to rise for units and ex-investment properties. So we're 147 00:07:40,530 --> 00:07:44,549 Carlos Cacho: actually seeing the highest share of investor sales in Sydney 148 00:07:44,549 --> 00:07:48,269 Carlos Cacho: in particular on record about 40% of listings in June 149 00:07:48,270 --> 00:07:51,330 Carlos Cacho: and July were in former investment properties. And we think 150 00:07:51,330 --> 00:07:54,780 Carlos Cacho: that supply coming online could potentially drive a bit more 151 00:07:54,780 --> 00:07:57,300 Carlos Cacho: of a softening in the housing market late this year 152 00:07:57,300 --> 00:07:58,349 Carlos Cacho: and into early next year. 153 00:07:59,700 --> 00:08:04,979 Sean Aylmer: Bringing all this together, interest rates, inflation, employment, housing market, 154 00:08:05,580 --> 00:08:09,570 Sean Aylmer: do you think that the Australian economy can land over 155 00:08:09,570 --> 00:08:13,830 Sean Aylmer: the next 12 months without going into recession? The so-called 156 00:08:13,830 --> 00:08:18,210 Sean Aylmer: soft landing, it would be quite a feat? Well, I 157 00:08:18,210 --> 00:08:19,739 Sean Aylmer: think six months ago we would've said it would be 158 00:08:19,740 --> 00:08:21,420 Sean Aylmer: quite a feat. Maybe we won't say that now, but 159 00:08:21,420 --> 00:08:23,009 Sean Aylmer: where do you think we are? How do you think 160 00:08:23,010 --> 00:08:24,300 Sean Aylmer: we'll be in the next 12 months? 161 00:08:24,389 --> 00:08:28,050 Carlos Cacho: Look, a recession is a risk. It always is. It's 162 00:08:28,050 --> 00:08:30,660 Carlos Cacho: never been our best case though. And I think when 163 00:08:30,660 --> 00:08:32,608 Carlos Cacho: I look at the economy as a whole, there are 164 00:08:32,610 --> 00:08:36,599 Carlos Cacho: pockets that are in pain, discretionary consumer spending is clearly 165 00:08:36,599 --> 00:08:39,030 Carlos Cacho: under pressure. But if we look broader than that, if 166 00:08:39,030 --> 00:08:43,679 Carlos Cacho: we look at things like business investment, exports, the construction 167 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:47,370 Carlos Cacho: sector is still doing very well. Yes, residential construction will 168 00:08:47,370 --> 00:08:50,639 Carlos Cacho: come off next year, but excluding residential construction, there's still 169 00:08:50,639 --> 00:08:54,089 Carlos Cacho: a massive pipeline of both public and private work to 170 00:08:54,090 --> 00:08:56,939 Carlos Cacho: be done and just government spending. As much as the 171 00:08:56,940 --> 00:09:00,328 Carlos Cacho: government is showing restraint in not spending this big 20 172 00:09:00,330 --> 00:09:03,960 Carlos Cacho: billion surplus that they're building up, in the face of 173 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,990 Carlos Cacho: cost of living pressures, there's still a lot of spending 174 00:09:06,990 --> 00:09:09,030 Carlos Cacho: going out the doors. And so I think in the 175 00:09:09,030 --> 00:09:12,179 Carlos Cacho: end we probably will avoid a recession, but that probably 176 00:09:12,179 --> 00:09:14,309 Carlos Cacho: means rates are going to remain higher for longer. And I 177 00:09:14,309 --> 00:09:16,080 Carlos Cacho: think this is the key thing people need to start 178 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,149 Carlos Cacho: thinking about. It's no longer about where the peak is 179 00:09:18,150 --> 00:09:20,189 Carlos Cacho: going to be for rates. There might be one or 180 00:09:20,190 --> 00:09:23,309 Carlos Cacho: two more hikes to come, there might not. But in 181 00:09:23,309 --> 00:09:25,080 Carlos Cacho: our view, I think the more important factor is going 182 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,030 Carlos Cacho: to be how long do we stay at these levels 183 00:09:27,270 --> 00:09:29,700 Carlos Cacho: and we expect we're going to remain at the current 184 00:09:29,700 --> 00:09:32,099 Carlos Cacho: cash rate or higher until at least the end of 185 00:09:32,099 --> 00:09:33,689 Carlos Cacho: next year. So we think it could be quite a 186 00:09:33,690 --> 00:09:36,240 Carlos Cacho: while before we get relief of rate cuts coming through, 187 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,480 Carlos Cacho: particularly if the economy remains surprisingly resilient. 188 00:09:40,620 --> 00:09:42,900 Sean Aylmer: And Carlos, I can't let you go without asking about 189 00:09:42,900 --> 00:09:45,569 Sean Aylmer: the bank side because I know you're the bank's analyst 190 00:09:45,570 --> 00:09:49,290 Sean Aylmer: at Jarden Australia as well, just with earning season coming 191 00:09:49,290 --> 00:09:51,900 Sean Aylmer: up, the three of the big four don't actually report. 192 00:09:51,900 --> 00:09:55,319 Sean Aylmer: They're on a different cycle, but Commonwealth Bank does report. 193 00:09:56,460 --> 00:09:58,770 Sean Aylmer: This earning season, I suppose I'm referring really to Commonwealth 194 00:09:58,770 --> 00:10:01,920 Sean Aylmer: Bank, what's the sort of stuff you are looking for 195 00:10:02,220 --> 00:10:03,900 Sean Aylmer: from reporting season? 196 00:10:04,410 --> 00:10:06,780 Carlos Cacho: Look, really the two key things that the market's going 197 00:10:06,780 --> 00:10:09,929 Carlos Cacho: to be focusing on is first of all margins and 198 00:10:09,990 --> 00:10:13,800 Carlos Cacho: how bad the fallen margins is. The market is hoping, I 199 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:15,689 Carlos Cacho: think, for a bit of a moderation, things being less 200 00:10:15,690 --> 00:10:19,230 Carlos Cacho: bad there than they were in the third quarter. And 201 00:10:19,230 --> 00:10:21,780 Carlos Cacho: the other thing will be if there's any signs of 202 00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:25,020 Carlos Cacho: bad debts picking up and there we expect that things 203 00:10:25,020 --> 00:10:27,599 Carlos Cacho: are going to remain pretty benign in a lot of 204 00:10:27,599 --> 00:10:31,230 Carlos Cacho: the research we do, looking across the economy, across businesses, 205 00:10:31,230 --> 00:10:33,420 Carlos Cacho: we really struggle to see much in the way of 206 00:10:33,420 --> 00:10:37,530 Carlos Cacho: red flags for rising bad debts or business stress or 207 00:10:37,530 --> 00:10:40,620 Carlos Cacho: household stress from the banks. People are under pressure, yes, 208 00:10:40,620 --> 00:10:44,730 Carlos Cacho: but it's not yet leading to loan arrears or defaults. 209 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,129 Carlos Cacho: And we got another important piece of data out on 210 00:10:47,129 --> 00:10:50,699 Carlos Cacho: that actually yesterday with Credit Corp who's a debt collector 211 00:10:50,700 --> 00:10:54,330 Carlos Cacho: reporting and actually saying that that lack of pain on 212 00:10:54,330 --> 00:10:57,179 Carlos Cacho: the credit side is actually, it's bad for them. They're 213 00:10:57,179 --> 00:11:00,540 Carlos Cacho: not seeing as much as debt come through to them 214 00:11:00,929 --> 00:11:03,478 Carlos Cacho: to collect as they would normally expect in this kind 215 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,699 Carlos Cacho: of environment. So I think if we do get a 216 00:11:05,699 --> 00:11:07,380 Carlos Cacho: soft landing that's going to end up being a positive 217 00:11:07,410 --> 00:11:08,070 Carlos Cacho: for the banks. 218 00:11:09,030 --> 00:11:11,010 Sean Aylmer: Carlos, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 219 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:12,210 Carlos Cacho: Thanks for having me, Sean. 220 00:11:12,630 --> 00:11:16,050 Sean Aylmer: That was Carlos Catcho, Chief Economist at Jarden Australia. This 221 00:11:16,050 --> 00:11:18,240 Sean Aylmer: is the Fear and Greed business interview. Remember, this is 222 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,540 Sean Aylmer: general information only and you should seek professional advice before 223 00:11:21,540 --> 00:11:24,660 Sean Aylmer: making any investment decision. Join us every morning for the 224 00:11:24,690 --> 00:11:27,810 Sean Aylmer: full episode of Fear and Greed. Australia's best business podcast. 225 00:11:27,929 --> 00:11:29,850 Sean Aylmer: I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.